Figure 1. Number of births and total fertility rate in Ireland, 1960-1999
5
'
3
2
)
'
20
1
0
0
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Sources: CSO Annual and Quarterly Vital Statistics Reports, Council of Europe (2000)
22
Thousands of births
Total fertility rate
4 )
80
Births
(right
scale)
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'
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60
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'
TFR (left scale) ' ' '
40
'
''''
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Figure 2. Ireland’s TFR in comparative perspective, 1950-2000
2a. Ireland and Europe
4.5
Births per woman
Ireland
) Spain
' EU15
&Sweden
Netherlands
4
3.5
3
2.5 )
)
&
&
0
1950
1955
2
1.5
1
)
)
)
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)
'''
''
''
&
''
&
''
&
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&
&
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&
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'''&
)
'
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)
)
)
0.5
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2b. Ireland and the ‘new world’ countries
4.5
Births per woman
4
'
3.5 $
)
3
#
$
'
)
#
Ireland
$
'
)
#
$New Zealand
#
)
'
2.5
)US
$
' Canada
$
#
)
'
2
#Australia
$
#
)
'
1.5
$
#
)
'
$
#
)
'
1980
1985
$
)))) $ )
#
# #
#
'
'
1
0.5
0
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
Source: UN (2000a), New Cronos (2001)
23
1990
1995
2000
Figure 3. Proportions never married, Ireland and New Zealand, 1961,
1981, 1996.
3a. 1961
100
Per cent never married
99
92
Ireland
New Zealand
80
78
60
40
41
45
30
20
24
22
24
22
13
8
7
8
8
10
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
0
15-19
20-24
25-29
3b. 1981
100
Per cent never married
98
95
80
Ireland
New Zealand
68
60
52
40
29
20
17
15
0
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
16
13
12
11
8
5
4
4
5
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
3c. 1996
100
Per cent never married
100 99
93
Ireland
New Zealand
85
80
60
59
51
40
27 28
20
16 16
12
9
0
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
Sources: Census 1996 (Ireland), Statistics New Zealand
24
40-44
10
6
45-49
10
5
50-54
Figure 4. Proportions never married among women aged 25-29 and 3539, western Europe, 1990/1991
70
Per cent
25-29
35-39
60
50
40
30
20
Portugal
Greece
Belgium
Germany*
L'bourg
UK
Austria
Spain
Italy
N'lands
Ireland
Norway
Finland
Iceland
Denmark
Sweden
N Zealand
USA
EU15
0
France
10
* excl. former GDR.
Source: New Cronos (2001)
Figure 5. Proportions of births outside of marriage, 1980 and 1999
60
Per cent
1999
1980
50
40
30
20
10
25
Greece
Italy*
Spain**
Belgium**
L'bourg
Portugal
Germany
N'lands
Austria
Ireland
Finland
UK
France
Denmark
Norway*
Sweden
N Z'land
US
EU15*
0
Figure 6. The distribution of births by birth order, Ireland, Italy and the
United States, 1960, 1980 and 1995-99.
6a. 1960
60
Per cent
Ireland
Italy
US
50
40
37
32
30
28
26
25
21
19
18
20
16
15
17
13
12
12
8
10
0
First
Second
Third
Fourth
Fifth plus
6b. 1980
60
Per cent
50
47
Ireland
Italy
US
45
40
34
30
35
29
24
19
20
12
14
15
12
10
4
4
3
2
0
First
Second
Third
Fourth
Fifth or higher
6c. 1995-99
60
Per cent
Ireland (1999)
Italy (1996)
US (1995)
51
50
41
41
40
36
30
30
32
20
17
16
10.2*
10
10
7
5
2
1
Fourth
Fifth plus
0
First
Second
Third
* Fourth plus (US 1995)
Sources: UN Demographic Yearbook 1965, Table 16; Council of Europe (2000), UN (1997).
26
Figure 7. Number of births by birth order in Ireland, 1960-2000
25
Thousands of births
First
20
Second
Fifth +
15
Third
10
Fourth
5
0
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Figure 8. Model for the interpretation of aggregate fertility outomes in
Ireland
Supply factors
Demand factors
Sexual activity (esp.
among single women)
Fertility
outcomes
Cultural value of
children
No. of families
xx
Contraception &
abortion
Family size
Costs of children
Couple formation
(marriage/cohabitation)
Background variables (economic
development, education, religion,
family policies, etc.)
27
Figure 9. Cultural value of children: Ideal family size among women by
age-group in selected countries, 1981 and 1990
9a. 1981
6
Ideal number of children
5
Spain
Ireland
USA
Japan
Sweden
4
3
2
1
0
18-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
9b. 1990
6
Ideal number of children
5
Spain
Ireland
USA
Japan
Sweden
4
3
2
1
0
18-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
Sources: 1981 and 1990 European Values Study
28
55-64
Figure 10. Proportion of mothers with completed fertility (ages 45-64)
whose actual number of children was less than, equal to and greater
than their stated ideal family size, selected countries, 1981 and 1990.
10a. 1981
60
Per cent
50
40
Less than ideal
Ideal
More than ideal
30
20
10
0
Italy
Spain Ireland
USA Canada Japan Sweden
10b. 1990
60
Per cent
50
40
Less than ideal
Ideal
More than ideal
30
20
10
0
Italy
Spain Ireland
USA Canada Japan Sweden
29
Figure 11. New family formation in Ireland – marriages, first births and
marital first births, 1960-2000
26
Thousands
)
)
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) )
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)
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)
)
)
)
))))
) $
$
)
$ $$$ $$
)
18
$
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))$
$
)$$
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)
14
)
$
)$ $$$
))$
$ $
$
$$$$$
Marriages
10
) All first births
22
$Marital first births*
6
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
* Data on marital first births available only up to 1997
Sources: CSO Vital Statistics, Council of Europe (2000).
30
1985
1990
1995
2000