Final Version 11th June 2007
Impacts and Opportunities of a Changing Climate on Key Infrastructure
Priorities for Hampshire - Transport (Highways). An overview.
Executive Summary
Climate change will affect the county’s transport infrastructure and the County
Council’s approach to transport both directly and indirectly. It will be affected
directly in terms of climatic and weather changes impacting on the performance and
maintenance needs of the transport assets. This will require careful decision making
where intervention may be possible or practical given likely budget situations.
It may well be necessary to accept that systems (such as highway drainage for
example) would ‘fail’ more often. Future operations may need to incorporate a much
higher level of contingency planning than at present, as violent storms hit or
prolonged dry periods occur. These are very likely to disrupt the smooth running of
highway and transport systems and which could well affect the safety and security of
Hampshire residents as other travellers. It may be prudent to expand the winter
maintenance approach to cover other weather emergencies with forecasting and
modelling used to highlight emergency preventative maintenance works to cover
flooding risks as well as ice and snow.
The climate change impacts on materials and vegetation (growth rates and species
changes) will affect maintenance approaches and choices of materials that may affect
the quality of place that can be achieved. There are likely to be many indirect effects,
some consequential on the likely adoption of national policies to reduce the future
impacts of climate change. In some policy areas the climate change issues are likely
to reinforce the economic led arguments on reducing or halting the growth in car
travel through demand management like road pricing (favoured by Sir Rod Eddington
who identified access to international gateways like Hampshire’s ports as priorities
for investment).
The government issued the ‘Low Carbon Transport Innovation Strategy in May 2007
with a range of proposed interventions. Air quality and other environmental concerns
are very likely to lead to increased pressures for reductions in the use of private cars
in urban areas and again climate change is likely to reinforce this. The draft Local
Transport Bill (also published in May 2007) proposes increased powers for local
authorities in controlling traffic an in promoting road pricing. There are concerns
about the effectiveness and fairness of such interventions as road pricing.
Most transport capital investment generates increased maintenance and revenue
expenditure (new street lights, traffic signals and real-time bus information as
examples). Climate change considerations would suggest that transport investment
that reduces energy use should be a priority (e.g. a bus lane or measures to promote
walking and cycling). A new route or junction improvement can reduce local
congestion and associated emissions but at the same time can reinforce the driving
culture and encourage more vehicles on the road. There is a particular concern for
Hampshire where in many areas there is not a strong tradition of public transport use.
For much of the county the accessibility needs of less well off and of elderly groups in
1
particular will require innovative solutions with social and health as well as transport
considerations on promoting the wellbeing of Hampshire’s people.
Current and future national government is likely to be looking for local authorities to
demonstrate leadership by developing and leading partnerships in this area. This
would be through the ‘smarter choices’ agenda, travel planning, and initiatives such as
the County Council’s Home to School Transport project, which has already
demonstrated success in taking cars (and emissions) out of the school run.
In summary, the effects are likely to be widespread and the County Council will have
to make difficult decisions on intervention levels in maintenance and asset
management. It will not be possible to cover all eventualities, there are likely to be
increased number of incidents and future operations will need to recognise this and
plan accordingly. On the wider policy front there is likely to be increased restriction
on car use and the County Council will need to weigh its investment decisions
carefully in terms of their long term as well as short-term effects. There is an
opportunity for the County Council to develop and lead partnerships that promote its
corporate objectives within the context of a climate change aware strategy.
Recommendations
1. That the Environment department completes an urgent review of its
transport asset management plan to advise the County Council in its
budget preparation for 2009/10. To include assessments of the risks
associated with carrying out and not carrying out interventions to the
year 2050.
2. The County Council develops a plan through the LAA and other
partnerships within the context of climate change to lead on the
integration of transport policies with other policies impacting on the
corporate priorities including health and access to services as well as
the quality of life and environment in urban areas.
2
1. Introduction
1.1 This report looks at the likely impacts of climate change on transport in
Hampshire based on the evidence currently available on climate change
itself and developing policy guidance.
1.2 There is a great deal of research currently underway by the Transport
Research Laboratory and others, on the likely direct effects on
infrastructure and the consequences of infrastructure failure. There are,
similarly, policy developments as international and national guidance
increasingly directs local authorities and others to influence travel
behaviour in order to reduce the effect of transport on climate.
2. Transport Issues – Services and Policy
2.1 Hotter, wetter and stormier weather presents new challenges to transport
services. The infrastructure problems with highways apply similarly to rail
lines with some areas prone to flooding and potential for track and
structural damage from heat. In London there is concern about increased
temperatures and reduced comfort levels in the underground system and
while there is not a direct comparison in Hampshire it may be that
demands for air-conditioned public transport, or cycling and walking may
increase as temperatures rise.
2.2 Climate change, whilst progressive, will be gradual so solutions may need
to be staged and transitional to reflect this.
Air Quality and Greenhouse Gases
2.3 The effects of traffic levels in urban areas would, if unchecked, be more
pronounced in warmer weather. There are already air quality problems in
the Winchester, Eastleigh, Totton, Lyndhurst and Farnborough all related
to traffic.
2.4 Nationally nitrous oxide (NO) (responsible for six percent of United
Kingdom’s man made greenhouse gas emissions) was almost five times
higher in terms of road transport emissions in 2005 compared with 1990.
2.5 Technological advances can reduce NO and other pollutants but traffic and
congestion growth will limit the benefits in terms of the overall output of
greenhouse gases.
2.6 In May 2007 the government produced its ‘Low Carbon Transport
Innovation Strategy’, which includes a range of interventions to help
stimulate the development of lower carbon technologies.
2.7 The strategy includes a range of mechanisms to provide a ‘carbon price
signal’ to all major transport modes. It proposes the use of market based or
regulatory approaches to encourage the deployment of lower carbon
technologies together with support for research, development and
demonstration projects. The government strategy also includes providing
3
better information about the carbon impacts of choices and has recently
initiated television-advertising campaigns in relation to CO2 emissions.
Policy Development
2.8 There are likely to be many indirect effects, some consequential on the
likely adoption of national policies to reduce the future impacts of climate
change. In some policy areas the climate change issues are likely to
reinforce the economic led arguments on reducing or halting the growth in
car travel through demand management like road pricing.
2.9 Sir Rod Eddington, in his report ‘The Eddington Transport Study’
December 2006, put forward the need to prioritise transport investment to
support already prosperous large urban areas, international gateways and
important inter-urban links. He described the introduction of road pricing
as a ‘no brainer’ and also promoted better understanding of the
environmental arguments including climate change implications (backing
up the Stern Review) when considering the case for transport schemes.
2.10 This is one example highlighting a coming together of different policy
priorities which will undoubtedly lead to increased government direction
to local transport authorities and others to increase the priority given to
climate change in their transport planning considerations.
2.11 This policy guidance shift affects not just strategic matters but also local
decision making. Most transport capital investment generates increased
maintenance and revenue expenditure (new street lights, traffic signals and
real-time bus information as examples). Climate change considerations
would suggest that transport investment that reduces energy use should
have increased priority (which might give more weight to proposals like
bus lanes or measures to promote walking and cycling).
2.12 A new highway capacity improvement can reduce local congestion and
associated emissions over the short-term but could prevent a switch to
other modes (reinforcing the driving culture and encourage more vehicles
on the road). There is a potential conflict between short term measures that
ease traffic flow and longer term objectives to reduce carbon.
2.13 There is a particular concern in Hampshire where in many areas there is
not a strong tradition of public transport use. It would not be at all easy for
large parts of the Hampshire population to switch to an alternative to car
use, particularly in low income and rural areas.
2.14 In south Hampshire in particular the ‘solution’ to traffic problems in the
1970s was the motorway which allowed new dispersed residential and
employment areas to work with the motorway acting as the main conduit.
As traffic levels have grown the motorway is reaching capacity and
experiencing congestion. Traditional public transport is not well placed to
serve as an alternative to the car for the new journey patterns that have
become established.
4
2.15 National policy is looking to discourage growth in car journeys, probably
through price. There are concerns about the effectiveness and fairness of
such interventions as road pricing For much of the county the accessibility
needs of less well off and of elderly groups in particular will require
innovative solutions with social and health as well as transport
considerations on promoting the wellbeing of Hampshire’s people.
2.16 The new ‘draft Local Transport Bill’ May 2007 looks to promote
increased powers to promote increased use of public transport and make it
easier to introduce local road pricing schemes.
2.17 National government is likely to be looking for local authorities to
develop and lead partnerships and to demonstrate leadership in this area.
For example through the ‘smarter choices’ agenda, travel planning and
initiatives like the County Council Home to School Transport project,
which has already demonstrated success in taking cars (and emissions) out
of the school run.
County Council Policies
2.18 The County Council’s Local Transport Plan (March 2006) covering the
period 2006 to 2011 has a theme of ‘reduce, manage and invest’, which
promotes more integrated land use planning and developments and
bringing services to people. The County council in its submissions to the
South East plan also adopted this approach.
2.19 The County Council is already promoting ‘travel planning’ through its
development control policies and through school travel plans. It is also
preparing a revised corporate travel strategy and reducing headquarters car
parking. There is a clear leadership role here for the County Council in
promoting the ‘smarter choices’ agenda and setting an example.
2.20 There are opportunities through the sustainable community strategy, the
LAA and other partnerships within the context of climate change to lead
on the integration of transport policies with other policies.
2.21 Priority might be given to policies that reduce the need to travel for
services including health and which promote wellbeing and the
environment.
3. Infrastructure Issues
Flooding
3.1 Climate change is projected to bring dramatic changes to climate in the
United Kingdom in the next 10 to 20 years. Rainfall is ‘very likely’ to
increase and temperatures to rise with heavy rainfall events ‘very likely’ to
increase in frequency and at the same time increases in extreme weather
5
from droughts to storms. Other significant impacts on transport
infrastructure will be rising sea level, affecting low-lying coastal areas, and
increased coastal erosion; a particular problem for Hampshire’s ‘soft
coastline.’
3.2 In recent years Hampshire has experienced groundwater-flooding incidents
and droughts both of which brought damage to highways and associated
structures while flooding in particular brought third party damage where
roads acted as streambeds and so on. Damage from trees in storms has also
been a feature.
3.3 A preliminary examination of highway drainage systems reveals that in
many parts of the network (both rural and urban) there is insufficient
capacity to cater for many of the serious storms that are predicted to occur
more frequently. Consequently unless very large sums of money are to
made available to upgrade these systems incidents of flooded highways
and consequent effects on adjacent land are likely to increase.
3.4 It will be necessary to plan more for dealing with emergencies as they
arise with improved forecasting and contingency planning with
communities to limit the damage and risks that result from flooding
incidents. Winter maintenance is already managed using a network of
weather monitors and computer models that advise on whether to apply
salt on highways. Climate change will mean less icy conditions in
Hampshire but more incidents as a result of high rainfall will occur.
3.5 It may well be prudent, in terms of reducing flooding incidents and
damage, to invest in a similar system to that used in winter icy conditions
to heavy rainfall incidents. It is possible (and already pioneered by the
Environment Agency) to provide early warnings of the likelihood of
flooding. It may then be practical to introduce emergency maintenance
works in terms of clearing the drainage in vulnerable sites or introducing
diversionary and other emergency works ahead of storms at agreed priority
vulnerable sites. Such works should be co-ordinated with district council
functions like street sweeping where appropriate. Consideration will also
need to be given to the introduction of emergency maintenance and repair
works immediately after a storm as a damaged site is especially vulnerable
to further attack (from rain, river or tide).
3.6 The hard and sealed highway surface has the effect of releasing rainfall
quicker into watercourses than grassed surfaces. Water which breaks
through a road surface into the underlying structure can cause serious
damage to that structure and also divert the run-off (including into third
party properties) Road material manufacturers are looking to develop road
structures that can store water and so reduce the problems of surface runoff and these could become more commonplace in the future. Alternatively
there could be more water run-off storage facilities (balancing ponds)
associated with highways to reduce the impacts of storms.
6
3.7 Flooding associated with sea-level rises will also affect highways and
again consideration will be needed into whether there is to be more
investment in highway protection, contingency plans/ emergency plans
and/or managed retreat.
Earth Movements and Other Safety Concerns
3.8 Hot dry spells and droughts can bring damage to carriageways and
structures (such as embankments) through clay shrinkage. Several millions
of pounds of damage occurred in recent years in certain parts of the
county.
3.9 Land slips may become more widespread in certain areas possibly
associated with clay outcrops, spring lines and of course in coastal areas.
Again increased watchfulness and contingency planning will be required
to minimise the safety risks.
3.10 There are increased accident risks associated with long dry spells in their
effects on ‘polishing’ road surfaces, particularly associated with rainfall at
the end of such periods while storms can in themselves present hazards in
terms of trees falling, flash floods and so on.
3.11 Working conditions are also likely to change with more work carried out
in the cooler parts of the day to aid both the labour force and the materials,
which might be affected by heat.
Other Transport
3.12 Rail operations are likely to be affected in terms of infrastructure directly
and through the expected need to carry more passengers and freight to
reduce climate change effects.
3.13 Ports will be directly affected by sea-level changes and working
conditions and are equally expected to be dealing with increased
workloads as trade increases. The ports and Southampton Airport as
international gateways are important to the local, regional and national
economies and access to them is expected to be a high priority in future
years (discussed in the Eddington Report 2006).
Asset Management
3.14 Such factors are being incorporated into the County Council’s developing
Transport Asset Management Plan. A transport asset management plan
includes an assessment of the value of transport assets, their replacement
costs and depreciation to provide an understanding of the financial
investment needed to maintain or improve the standard of the
infrastructure, which can be built into budget planning.
7
3.15 Transport asset management nationally is still in an early stage of
development but the government and practitioners have already
understood that climate change brings an extra dimension to the challenge.
3.16 At a recent (June 2007) conference on climate change and sustainable
asset management in Nottingham reference was made to many of the
points raised above and the effect climate change will have on the value
and adequacy of existing assets and the need to re-examine long held
assumptions and maintenance practices.
3.17 Trees and grass are a case in point. Increased carbon dioxide (CO2) will
mean increased growth rates from vegetation and the temperature
increases will increase the growing season. There will need to be increased
grass cutting to meet the same level of service. At same time increased
rainfall and increased heavy storms will promote both waterlogging of
roots and increased tendency for tree falls while species of trees will
change. Highway vegetation areas are seen as a valuable asset but also a
corridor for plant diseases to use. In any event increased investment in
managing the highway vegetation asset is seen as inevitable.
4 Transport Investment and Revenue Implications
4.1 One principle of asset management applied by the County Council is that
where practical capital investment should be applied to produce efficiency
savings and less revenue expenditure. The value of this strategy may be
clearly seen in an example of a new school boiler that will bring efficiency
savings and revenue saving in running costs.
4.2 Almost invariably with transport investment there is an increased revenue
effect whether from new highway infrastructure in terms of maintenance
or for example energy costs from new traffic signals, street lights or
information systems. The revenue and energy implications of new
transport investment will need to be more closely scrutinised as far as the
County Council’s own costs are concerned. However, it may be possible to
use capital funding, from the integrated transport budget, to finance
significant maintenance schemes, thereby reducing the impact on revenue
budgets.
4.3 In a wider context it could be argued that transport capital investment
should be targeted more at measures which reduce energy consumption
overall such as measures which encourage walking, cycling or public
transport and reduce the amount of car transport. As an example the 2007
Hampshire County Council Home to School Transport Project, which
introduced three ‘yellow buses’ in part of Basingstoke, has been estimated
as producing savings of about 56,000 car miles (90,000 km) per year
(approximately 25 tonnes of CO2) just from reductions in the school run.
4.4 Climate change will also directly affect maintenance costs or level of
service. Increased vegetation growth will bring pressure for more frequent
8
grass cutting, gulley emptying and maintenance and work on trees where
they impinge on highways and/or safety. Again the choice will be between
increased revenue expenditure or a reduced level of service with
consequent additional incidents and associated costs.
4.5 Risk management has an important role to play here. There is unlikely to
be sufficient funding to allow for all relevant infrastructure or services to
be upgraded. Decisions will need to be made, on the basis of applied risk
management principles, as to where best to intervene and where risks will
be borne (together with appropriate contingency planning).
4.6 There will be greater incentives to increase the use of recycling highway
materials. The County Council has been one of the early pioneers in terms
of recycling carriageway materials and this activity is likely to increase
significantly. However recent studies have shown that transport carbon
costs often outweigh the savings which come from the use of recycled or
other ‘greener’ materials so decisions here need to take account of the full
carbon equation (similarly the duration of the treatment is important something with two thirds the carbon cost but only half the life would be a
false economy).
4.7 It appears very likely that a combination of the above will lead to
increased disruption to the smooth and safe operation of the highway
networks.
4.8 The Motorway and Trunk Road network administered by the Highways
Agency (HA) is likely to be similarly affected to the county road network.
Disruptions on the HA network will inevitably mean diversions onto the
County Council networks and consequent chaotic conditions. One
investment strategy under consideration is to control traffic on key parts of
the transport network including the HA network and key County Council
roads adjacent to it.
4.9 In conclusion there is a need to review all of the above highway and
transport issues to advise the County Council’s planning and budget
making at the earliest practical date. It is suggested that this work should
be sufficiently progressed by early 2008 to allow asset management and in
particular climate change adapted asset management considerations to
inform the budget making process for the 2008/09 budgets onwards.
5 Summary
5.1 The effects of climate change on transport and its infrastructure are likely
to be widespread and the County Council will have to make difficult
decisions on intervention in new investment and in maintenance and asset
management.
9
5.2 It will not be possible to cover all eventualities, there are likely to be
increased number of incidents of flooding and so on and future operations
will need to recognise this and plan accordingly.
5.3 National policy direction is likely to promote changes in favour of low
carbon strategies and moves towards changing travel patterns that lead to
less traffic growth. Hampshire has particular problems as it has high car
use and not often clear alternatives especially in rural areas. There will
need to be innovative solutions to access problems if road pricing is
brought forward nationally.
5.4 The County Council does have the opportunity to take a leading role and
setting an example in the ‘smarter choices’ agenda.
5.5 Council to develop and lead partnerships that promote its corporate
objectives within the context of a climate change aware strategy.
Recommendations
1
That the Environment department completes an urgent review of
its transport asset management plan to advise the County Council
in its budget preparation for 2009/10. To include assessments of
the risks associated with carrying out and not carrying out
interventions to the year 2050.
2
The County Council develops a plan through the LAA and other
partnerships within the context of climate change to lead on the
integration of transport policies with other policies impacting on
the corporate priorities including health and access to services as
well as the quality of life and environment in urban areas.
10