Macroinvertebrate and fish NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series i Macroinvertebrate and fish responses to low flows in South Australian rivers David Deane South Australian Department for Water Low flows report series, June 2012 NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series ii © Commonwealth of Australia 2012 This work is copyright. Apart from any use as permitted under the Copyright Act 1968, no part may be reproduced by any process without prior written permission. Requests and enquiries concerning reproduction and rights should be addressed to the Communications Director, National Water Commission, 95 Northbourne Avenue, Canberra ACT 2600 or email bookshop@nwc.gov.au. Online/print: ISBN: 978-1-921853-71-5 Published by the National Water Commission 95 Northbourne Avenue Canberra ACT 2600 Tel: 02 6102 6000 Email: enquiries@nwc.gov.au Date of publication: June 2012 An appropriate citation for this report is: Deane D 2012, Macroinvertebrate and fish responses to low flows in South Australian rivers, National Water Commission, Canberra Disclaimer This paper is presented by the National Water Commission for the purpose of informing discussion and does not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of the Commission, nor does it represent South Australian State Government opinion or policy. NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series iii Low flows report series This paper is part of a series of works commissioned by the National Water Commission on key water issues. This work has been undertaken by the South Australian Government on behalf of the National Water Commission. NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series iv Contents Report context 1. Introduction 1.1 Purpose 1.2 Significance of low flows for South Australian streams 1.3 Introduction to the case studies 2. The influence of streamflow on aquatic macroinvertebrate community traits in South Australia (case study 1) 2.1 Summary 2.2 Introduction 2.3 Methods 2.4 Results 2.5 Discussion 2.6 Conclusions and further work 3. Changes in the macroinvertebrate community over a decadal period of drying (case study 2) 3.1 Summary 3.2 Introduction 3.3 Methods 3.4 Results 3.5 Discussion 3.6 Conclusions and further work 4. Preliminary analysis of the flow – recruitment response of mountain galaxias in the Marne River, South Australia (case study 3) 4.1 Summary 4.2 Introduction 4.3 Methods 4.4. Results 4.5 Discussion 5. Biological monitoring of South Australian aquatic biota 5.1 Current programs Appendix 1: Table of macroinvertebrate traits Appendix 2: Trait group sample membership Appendix 3: Highly prevalent South Australian macroinvertebrate families in dataset Appendix 4: Relevant findings for the Low Flow Ecological Response and Recovery Project Shortened forms References xi 1 1 1 2 4 4 7 9 14 25 30 32 32 33 33 34 47 50 52 52 53 53 55 59 61 61 64 65 67 68 70 71 Tables Table 1: Summary characteristics of indicative traits within the seven traits groups shown in Figure 7. Low flow for this analysis is indicative of mean daily streamflow less than half the volume of the non-zero median. .......................................... 6 Table 2: Site names and summary statistics, 1979–2007 ....................................................... 10 Table 3: Streamflow metrics used to characterise flow regime at the 12 sampling sites .................................................................................................................................. 13 Table 4: Results of Mantel tests for correlation (r value) between the flow, traits, family and geographical proximity matrices. .................................................................... 18 Table 5: Traits identified through indicator analysis as being significantly associated (p<0.01) with rivers in group 1 (Figure 2). ........................................................................ 18 Table 6: Selected characteristics of the different trait groups ................................................. 21 Table 7: Indicator species analysis results for groups shown in Figure 7. Statistical significance: ** p <0.01; * p <0.05. ................................................................................... 24 NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series v Table 8: Indicator species analysis trait states for the two sample groupings shown in figures 19 and 20. ............................................................................................................. 41 Table 9: Count of the trait states within each functional group ............................................... 43 Table 10: Selected annual streamflow summary statistics (2002–08) and autumn fish census data* (2002–10) for the Marne River catchment .................................................. 55 Table 11: Traits and trait states used in analysis. ................................................................... 64 Table 12: Assignment of macroinvertebrate samples to trait groups as discussed in Section 2 ........................................................................................................................... 65 Table 13: Families observed in more than half of riffle samples collected at more than half of the sites (total sites number = 11). ................................................................ 67 Table 14. As above, but for edge samples (total sites = 12) ................................................... 67 Figures Figure S1: Context of reports produced for the Low Flow Ecological Recovery and Response Project. Each circle represents the location of individual case studies and the size of each circle represents the spatial extent of each case study. .................. xi Figure 1: Location of study catchments for case studies presented in this chapter (Cooper Creek not shown). .............................................................................................. 11 Figure 2: Dendrogram showing Ward’s method clustering of the trait prevalence dissimilarity matrix. ........................................................................................................... 15 Figure 3: Dendrogram showing Ward’s method clustering of the flow statistics distance matrix ................................................................................................................. 16 Figure 4: Mean value for selected flow statistics for the two major groupings in Figure 2. Flow statistic codes and descriptions shown in Table 3. .................................. 16 Figure 5: NMDS ordination (stress = 7%) of the trait prevalence dataset. Convex hulls enclosing the two groups shown in Figure 2 are drawn in red, with group 1 on the left. Centroids of trait prevalence are shown in blue, and significant (p < 0.01) flow vectors in green (see Table 3 for descriptions of flow variables, and Appendix 1 for traits). ....................................................................................................... 17 Figure 6: Distribution of functional dispersion values for the two broad groupings shown in Figure 2. Notches indicate the approximate 95 per cent confidence intervals. ........................................................................................................................... 19 Figure 7: Ward’s minimum variance classification of the traits by abundance matrix. Groupings reflect the optimal pruning height suggested by indicator species analysis. Indicative traits were identified for each group. For group membership see Appendix 2. ................................................................................................................ 20 Figure 8: Boxplot summary of the rank order of the 30-day antecedent flow as a ratio of the non-zero median by traits group............................................................................. 22 Figure 9: Boxplot summary of the rank order of the 90-day antecedent flow as a ratio of the non-zero median by traits group............................................................................. 22 Figure 10: NMDS ordination (stress = 13 per cent) of the riffle trait prevalence data. Shown are the trait-based groupings (red polygons enclose samples within each group); environmental vectors and factors with a significant correlation with ordination axes (p < 0.01) are shown in green; and centroids for trait abundance are shown in blue. ............................................................................................................ 23 Figure 11: Boxplot showing the distribution of functional dispersion index scores for the seven trait grouping samples. .................................................................................... 25 Figure 12: Log transformed mean daily flow at A2390519, at Mosquito Creek near Struan, 1994–2011. Zero values are not defined on a log scale, hence cease-toflow periods are indicated by breaks in the hydrograph. Macroinvertebrate sampling dates are marked as black triangles, with the final sample being collected in autumn 2007. ................................................................................................ 33 Figure 13: Classification of macroinvertebrate edge samples from Mosquito Creek, autumn 1997–autumn 2007. Codes indicate season and year (e.g. ‘A02’ refers to Mosquito Creek, 2002 edge habitat sampled in autumn)............................................. 35 Figure 14: NMDS ordination of edge samples from Mosquito Creek. Colours indicate the groups shown in Figure 13. Environmental variables significant at 0.05 are NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series vi shown: zero.q.90 = number of zero-flow days in the 90 days before sampling; days.ctf is the count of days since flow ceased; ave.90 is the average daily flow for the 90 days before sampling; is.spring is a logical variable indicating if the sample was collected in spring. Codes indicate season and last two digits of the year sampled (i.e. A05 = autumn 2005 sample; S05 is spring 2005). ............................. 36 Figure 15: Ordination of Mosquito Creek autumn edge samples indicating trajectory over time, and with flow variables of statistical significance (p<0.05) shown: Nnzq.90 = median non-zero daily flow for 90 days before sampling. .............................. 37 Figure 16: Spring edge macroinvertebrate community dissimilarity 1994–2006, with trajectory shown for sequential annual samples 1997–2006. Environmental variables shown were significant (p = 0.05) and represent the number of zeroflow days in the 12 months before sampling (z.q.12m) and sample electrical conductivity (EC). ............................................................................................................. 38 Figure 17: Field readings of electrical conductivity (EC) taken at time of macroinvertebrate sampling at Mosquito Creek, 1994–2007........................................... 38 Figure 18: Linear regression of log transformed spring conductivity at Mosquito Creek on square root transformed 90-day mean daily antecedent streamflow (ML/d). .............................................................................................................................. 39 Figure 19: Ward’s minimum variance classification of the trait-abundance matrix. Site codes are explained in Figure 14. Group 2 is on the right. .............................................. 40 Figure 20: NMDS ordination of the trait prevalence data for Mosquito Creek, 1997– 2007. Sample group 1 is on the right of the figure. zq.90 = zero-flow days in the 90 days before sampling. ................................................................................................. 41 Figure 21: Functional groups based on Ward’s clustering of the Gower dissimilarity trait by family matrix to form three functional groups. ...................................................... 42 Figure 22: Proportion of functional group 1 in the edge data time-series, 1994–2007. .......... 44 Figure 23: Proportion of functional group 2 in the edge data time-series, 1994–2007 ........... 45 Figure 24: Proportion of functional group 3 in the edge data time-series, 1994–2007 ........... 45 Figure 25: The proportion of richness for edge samples for functional group 2 families as a function of streamflow on the day of sampling. The curve is a lowess smooth of the data. ............................................................................................... 46 Figure 26: The proportion of richness for edge samples for functional group 3 families as a function of streamflow on the day of sampling. The curve is a lowess smooth of the data. Similar patterns were evident for the 30- and 90-day antecedent flow statistics. ................................................................................................ 47 Figure 27: Family richness of South Australian edge samples (n=289) as a function of electrical conductivity (EC) measured in the field on the day of sampling. The fitted curve is a lowess smooth of the data which suggests a slight linear increase in richness up to a value of around natural log 7 (1000 EC). After this point richness declines in a linear manner according to the lowess smoother, although there is some evidence for a step change at ln(8), or ~3000 EC. ..................... 50 Figure 28: Linear regression model of Marne River mountain galaxias YOY in autumn as a function of non-zero median flow. The least squares fit to the data and 95 per cent confidence intervals are shown. ............................................................. 56 Figure 29: Modelled no-development and current development ranked daily flows for exceedence percentile indicated (note percentiles calculated on no-development scenario and hence are not applicable to the current flow).............................................. 57 Figure 30: Predicted mountain galaxias YOY numbers in three sites for the Marne River under current and no-development scenarios, 1975–2006. ................................... 58 Figure 31: Recruitment success of mountain galaxias for 32 years under scenarios of current water resource development and modelled no-development. ......................... 58 NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series vii Acknowledgements An enormous effort is represented by the collection of the data analysed here – especially from biologists from the Australian Water Quality Centre (SAWater) and the Environment Protection Authority which undertook the painstaking work of sampling, sorting and identifying macroinvertebrate samples. The efforts of regional hydrographers who have maintained the South Australian streamflow-gauging network since the 1940s are also of note. In recent years the South Australian Murray-Darling Basin natural resources management board has taken a lead role in biological data collection. In supporting detailed native fish time-series data in eastern Mount Lofty Ranges streams, the board has generated an invaluable dataset for use in flow-related ecology studies. Provision of this data for this study was greatly appreciated. Analysis of this type would not be possible without the foresight of numerous state and consulting biologists, who collected data from sites where flow comparison was possible. The contribution to knowledge made by those who organised, archived, sorted or collected data used in these case studies is acknowledged and respected by the author. Paul McEvoy and Peter Goonan are thanked for sharing their many years of experience in studying macroinvertebrate communities of South Australia. Mardi van der Wielen and Mike Hammer are thanked for providing Marne River fish census data. Glen Scholz and Michelle Bald are thanked for their support throughout the project. Rob Rolls provided the low flows coded-traits database used in the analysis (adapted from Schafer et al. 2011). Chris Madden provided a technical review on an early draft and two reviewers from Griffith University are thanked for their consideration of the report. Scott Hardie provided a detailed review of the technical content of the draft report, which was greatly appreciated. Other state jurisdictional representatives and the delivery agents (notably Nick Marsh) from the Low Flow Ecological Response and Recovery Project Team are also thanked for sharing their knowledge and experience over the course of the project. Finally, Clare Taylor from the National Water Commission provided support and copious levels of understanding (not to mention patience) in helping enable the collaboration of South Australia to happen. NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series viii Executive summary In this report three flow-related ecological case studies are presented from South Australia. Case studies 1 and 2 examine streamflow as a factor in structuring macroinvertebrate communities using data collected under the AusRivAS program, while case study 3 examines the effects of flow on recruitment success in a rheophilic fish species. Overall this study suggests the flow regime exerts the overriding influence on macroinvertebrate community structure, which was assessed in terms of functional diversity via a traits database. At the site scale, macroinvertebrate communities separated into two groups that had a statistically-significant positive correlation with a division of the same sites based on long-term flow statistics. Hydrologically, groups largely reflected differences in the baseflow index, inter-annual variation in baseflow and the duration of the annual cease-toflow period. Hence, the division tended to represent sites with ephemeral or near-perennial flow regimes. Functional diversity was clearly greater in perennial sites than ephemeral sites. While nearly a third of the trait states used in the analysis were indicative of perennial sites, none were indicative of ephemeral sites. These findings are consistent with the ecological theory that ephemeral conditions only support macroinvertebrates with traits tolerant to variable flow and physical habitat conditions. Classification of the trait prevalence of 161 riffle samples from across the state identified seven trait groups. Groups showed a strong affinity for flow regime types, with five groups dominated by samples collected from either ephemeral or perennial rivers. Only two groups contained samples collected from both perennial and ephemeral sites in comparable numbers. In contrast with flow regime, only weak relationships were evident between trait prevalence and flow conditions immediately before sampling. Two groups included a relatively high proportion of samples collected following low-flow periods, but in general all trait groups come from a range of antecedent flow magnitudes. For the two groups with relatively low-flow or cease-to-flow conditions, the observed functional diversity in the two trait groups differed considerably, with the ephemeral low-flow traits group having the lowest median functional diversity of all groups. This was consistent with the low functional diversity of the ephemeral group in the site-scale analysis. In contrast, the low-flow group comprising samples from perennial sites had a similar range of trait states to groups with moderate to high antecedent flows, and a mixture of trait states associated with flowing and non-flowing habitat (e.g. univoltinism and rapid maturation). Similar mixtures of indicative trait states between those adapted to variable conditions and those more associated with perennial flow were observed for all trait groups, even those predominantly comprising samples from perennial systems. This suggests a macroinvertebrate fauna that is generally adapted to variable flow conditions. Six of the seven groups suggested some dependence on season in structuring dominant traits. However, the combination of high ambient salinity and near-perennial flow at the Light River appears to support a unique community of relatively low functional diversity (trait group 7 comprised 88 per cent of Light River samples – the only such dominance by one site in any group). Functional diversity is associated with ecosystem resilience to environmental change. In case study 1, there was a strong association between functional diversity in macroinvertebrate communities and the flow regime. Managing for high functional diversity will require managers to ensure sites do not transition along a gradient of flow permanence from perennial to ephemeral. The surface expression of groundwater is clearly a critical influence on stream ecology in generating persistent streamflow conditions and supporting refuge habitat. NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series ix Protecting critical low-flow characteristics requires consideration of surface as well as groundwater development. Case study 2 examined a situation where precisely the transition discussed above has occurred. Before 2001, Mosquito Creek flowed perennially. Since then, cease-to-flow periods have increased in duration each year, to the point where the creek is now effectively ephemeral. Macroinvertebrate communities respond to this transition in flow regime in several ways, including: Family richness decreases from a mean of 34 before the drying phase to a mean of 23 for the post-impact samples. Both streamflow and conductivity had similar size, but opposite direction correlations with richness. Of three identified trait-based functional groups, differential flow dependencies are indicated by the proportional representation in samples with positive, negative and neutral responses evident. A linear decline in the rheophilic group with declining streamflow was offset by increases in the proportion of negative flow-responding families. Examples of non-linear community dynamics were also observed, with sharp changes in functional group proportions evident in the first autumn sample collected following antecedent cease-to-flow conditions. Proportions later return to pre-impact dynamics for the neutral group. A step change in spring community composition with a sharp increase in streamflow conductivity was evident in taxonomic data. Case study 3 indicates the importance of flow for a rheophilic fish species, Galaxias olidus, in the Marne River. In this catchment, G. olidus appears to have a linear flow dependence for recruitment, at least over the range of observed conditions from 2002 to 2010. This linear response was used to model recruitment success as a function of streamflow using observed and modelled no-development flow data. Modelling indicated the major difference was a decrease in the frequency of years with moderate recruitment success. Decreases in the number of moderate recruitment years were due to a reduction in flow duration and magnitude, which was previously attributed to farm dam development in the catchment. This case study illustrates the importance of flow magnitude for higher trophic levels in riverine ecosystems that was not evident in the macroinvertebrate data. NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series x Report context This report is part of a larger series of reports produced for the National Water Commission’s Low Flow Ecological Response and Recovery Project (Figure S1). This report presents one of 11 hydro-ecological case studies. The purpose of the case studies is to test hypotheses that relate ecological process and function and biological traits to key hydrological measures that are affected by low flows. A summary of the findings in this report and the other case studies are contained in Synthesis of case studies quantifying ecological responses to low flows (Marsh et al. 2012). Guidance on ecological response and hydrological modelling for low-flow water planning Low-flow hydrological classification of Australia Review of literature quantifying ecological responses to low flows Early warning, compliance and diagnostic monitoring of ecological responses to low flows Synthesis of case studies quantifying ecological responses to low flows Figure S1: Context of reports produced for the Low Flow Ecological Recovery and Response Project. Each circle represents the location of individual case studies and the size of each circle represents the spatial extent of each case study. NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series xi 1. Introduction 1.1 Purpose This report was prepared for the National Water Commission as a component of the Low Flow Ecological Response and Recovery Project funded under the Raising National Water Standards Program. This project aims to help water planning by developing a contemporary, Australia-wide understanding and quantification of thresholds of response to the onset of, and recovery from, single and successive low-flow events by individual species, biotic assemblages and ecosystem processes. The material in this report relates to Component 2 of the project, which seeks to examine low-flow ecological response thresholds and recovery trajectories. Marsh et al. (2012) presents a synthesis of current ecological understanding of the effects of low flows and associated ecological stressors on aquatic communities. The work in this chapter is discussed in the context of the understanding summarised in that review and also through work on water allocation planning in South Australian conditions. 1.2 Significance of low flows for South Australian streams South Australian climatic conditions vary from Mediterranean in the south, grading to semiarid and arid to the north. Prevailing influences on rainfall are frontal systems moving inland from the Southern Ocean, and the southerly movement of tropical moisture from the north of the continent. Latitude and elevation influence observed rainfall patterns, particularly in the south, where rainfall from northern migration of moisture bearing oceanic frontal systems dominates. As a result, the highest and most reliable rainfall totals are associated with the relatively significant relief of the Mount Lofty Ranges and higher latitudes of the state in southeastern areas towards the Victorian border. In southern regions, the Mediterranean influence is most apparent, with warm to hot and dry summers and wet, cool winters. The resulting seasonal rainfall excess over winter and spring provides the most reliable streamflow conditions. It is important to note that even in the wettest regions of the state, average potential evaporation exceeds average rainfall. This means that seasonal droughts with associated cease-to-flow periods are expected in South Australian stream ecosystems. Consistent with these climatic characteristics, streamflow regimes across virtually all South Australian watercourses are typified by a seasonal cease-to-flow period over summer and autumn. The duration of this cease-to-flow period varies depending on factors such as latitude, elevation of headwaters, groundwater input and catchment size. Wherever it is found in the landscape, permanent surface water represents a significant ecological asset, the value of which increases with the size, quality and relative proximity of other refugia and the duration of annual flow. Land use naturally exerts an ecological influence, but the major limiting factor on South Australian streams is the presence of standing, and particularly flowing water. Managing for low flows, usually including cease-to-flow periods, is thus a key focus of water allocation planning processes. In ephemeral and intermittent (also known as seasonal) streams, groundwater/surface water interactions assume a high level of importance (Hughes 2005). These temporary systems are characterised by a high degree of spatial heterogeneity in terms of wetted areas. Owing to the relatively dry South Australian climate, groundwater discharge is extremely influential on the presence of surface water refugia and observed streamflow duration, especially low flows NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — WATERLINES 1 (Green & Stewart 2008; Banks 2010). Although Lake Eyre Basin refugia waterholes are thought to entirely depend on surface flows to persist (Costello et al. 2007), virtually any permanent surface water outside Lake Eyre Basin rivers are in the first instance generally assumed to be groundwater-dependent. While groundwater supports riverine assets from permanent pools to seasonal and perennial reaches, permanently-flowing stream reaches are uncommon, and where these occur, groundwater discharge is invariably the source. Even in higher rainfall areas, groundwater supports much of the extended duration of low-flow periods and highly influences the duration of seasonal dry periods in streams. Under South Australian conditions, an average annual rainfall of 500–600 mm is recognised as the threshold where reliable streamflow can be expected in most years. Areas where rainfall exceeds this threshold are more likely to support aquatic communities where the ecology reflects this reliability. A reliable water resource also attracts human activities such as irrigated horticulture and forestry, bringing the more flow-sensitive ecosystems into direct competition with human extraction. Resource development, especially small on-stream farm dam storages, has been demonstrated to influence the length of seasonal no-flow (e.g. Savadamuthu 2002). In more arid regions, streamflow is so unreliable that farm dam development is largely limited to smaller storages used for stock watering. Aquatic communities may still be impacted by the interception of low flows through farm dam capture, but as the natural hydrology is highly variable, these communities are likely to comprise highly prevalent taxa broadly adapted to extended drought periods common under South Australian conditions. For example, in data analysed for this study, eight families were present in at least half of the riffle samples collected at every site (see Appendix 3 for a list of families). Given the strong winter and spring seasonal flow dominance, ecological theory would predict a profound influence on stream ecology (Poff et al. 1997; Bunn & Arthington 2002). Much of South Australia’s aquatic flora and fauna has evolved in conditions of seasonal or longer drought periods. Biological traits such as high physiological tolerance to salinity, desiccationresistant life-history phases, high mobility or multivoltinism enabling rapid response to flow periods are common in, for example, the macroinvertebrate fauna (see case study 1). However, more sensitive taxa are still found, often in small permanently-flowing refugia. The location of these assets for most Mount Lofty Ranges catchments can be unpredictable as they are generally sourced from groundwater springs where the underlying hydrogeology is dominated by fractured rock (Green & Stewart 2008; Banks 2010). This creates the situation where reaches of permanent flow may be located anywhere in a catchment (a common observation in ephemeral and intermittent systems), making the determination of environmental water requirements spatially complex (Hughes 2005). The more flowdependent biological components of South Australian rivers are particularly sensitive to the loss of the more amenable conditions associated with perennial or near-perennial flow, which are often small in size and spatially isolated. Protecting good water quality and long-flow duration assets is thus arguably the most critical focus for water allocation planning in South Australia. 1.3 Introduction to the case studies To investigate ecological responses to low-flow conditions in riverine ecosystems in South Australia, three case studies are presented. Case studies 1 and 2 use macroinvertebrate data collected for the AusRivAS program, while case study 3 relies on native fish data collected by the regional natural resources management (NRM) board to investigate recruitment success as a function of flow in the Marne River, a tributary to the South Australian Murray-Darling Basin (SAMDB). NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series 2 All streamflow data used in this chapter was collected by the South Australian Government at gauging stations forming part of the State Surface Water network, with some stations maintained in a funding partnership between the state government and NRM boards. The report concludes with a summary of current aquatic biological monitoring being undertaken in South Australia. Existing data, and that being collected at present, are discussed in terms of how suitable these may be to support research to fill current gaps in flow ecology understanding. NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series 3 2. The influence of streamflow on aquatic macroinvertebrate community traits in South Australia (case study 1) 2.1 Summary In this largely exploratory meta analysis, two scales of investigation were undertaken incorporating macroinvertebrate samples and daily flow data from 12 sites across South Australia. Catchments ranged over four orders of magnitude in size and represented latitudinal, land use and climatic variations in the state, while flow regimes included examples from ephemeral to perennial conditions. Data provide a good indication of temporal variations in macroinvertebrate communities likely to be observed within refugial riverine habitat in South Australia. 2.1.1 Flow regime and site trait prevalence Undertaken at site scale, the first analysis characterised macroinvertebrate communities and flow regimes across the total period of sampling to examine long-term correlations. Data consisted of the prevalence of 50 macroinvertebrate families collected in edge habitat samples at the 12 sites from 1994 to 2007 (21–25 samples per site). The family prevalence data matrix was multiplied with a binary trait matrix of 36 states among nine biological traits to provide an indication of trait prevalence within macroinvertebrate communities at each site over a decadal time-scale. Observed streamflow near reaches where macroinvertebrate samples were collected were characterised using summary statistics derived from daily gauged flows. Selected statistics largely measured variability over daily, annual and interannual periods. An association matrix was generated for the trait prevalence and streamflow data and cluster analysis was undertaken using hierarchical classification methods (Ward’s minimum variance). Grouping of sites in the two classifications was then compared, and analysed for indicative trait states and flow regime characteristics. Classification of sites based on trait prevalence produced two broad groupings distinguishable in terms of flow regime by: mean baseflow indices (proportional groundwater contribution to total streamflow); inter-annual variability in baseflow indices; and mean duration of the annual cease-to-flow period. Hence the broad division represents relatively reliable and highly variable flow regimes. The high-variability site group is referred to as the ‘ephemeral group’, with on average annual cease-to-flow periods exceeding 130 days more consistent with ephemeral conditions. The lower variability sites were a mixture of perennial and intermittent reaches, but cease-to-flow periods averaged only 22 days across the group and this group is referred to as ‘near-perennial’. Indicator species analysis suggested no trait states were indicative of the ephemeral group, while 10 of 36 states were significantly associated with the near-perennial group (p <0.01). This was interpreted as an indication that highly variable flow regimes in the ephemeral group could only support a subset of the trait states supported under less variable conditions, consistent with previously published theory and study findings. Evidence for this conclusion was also apparent in the distribution of functional dispersion index scores (a measure of spread in community traits). The near-perennial group had a higher median value and smaller spread of values than observed for the more variable sites consistent with an increased diversity of trait states. NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series 4 While site classification based on streamflow statistics produced three groups, with few exceptions groups formed were consistent with the trait prevalence classification. Mantel tests indicated that trait prevalence and community composition (taxonomic) dissimilarity matrices had statistically-significant (p <0.01) positive correlations with the flow statistics matrix. Geographical and flow distance matrices were also significantly correlated (p <0.01). High r values for Mantel tests of geographical distance with both trait prevalence and taxonomic dissimilarity matrices suggested some positive association, but this relationship was not statistically significant in either case (p >0.05). 2.1.2 Antecedent flows and sample-scale trait composition The second scale of investigation examined individual riffle samples (n = 161) collected at the same 12 sites. The aim of this analysis was to obtain an indication of the short-term influence of flow on dominant trait states and trait diversity in macroinvertebrate communities. Data were prepared and analysed largely in the manner described above for catchment-based analyses: statistical summaries of antecedent flow conditions for 7, 30, 90 and 180 days before sampling were generated for comparison with a trait-abundance matrix describing the macroinvertebrate community. The trait-abundance dissimilarity matrix was classified (hierarchical classification) and ordinated (non-metric multidimensional scaling – NMDS), and flow regime statistics were compared with the resulting macroinvertebrate community patterns using statistical summaries and vector analysis. Using stopping rules based on provision of maximum ecological information (Dufrene & Legendre 1997), pruning of the trait-abundance classification yielded seven trait groupings. For each trait group, characteristic antecedent flow conditions and indicative trait states were identified (Table 1). In addition to antecedent flow magnitude, duration and cease-to-flow periods, sampling season and site were clearly influential in structuring sample groupings. Trait groups also reflected flow regime as determined in the site-scale analysis to a large degree. Greater than 75 per cent of samples in three trait groups were from the perennial flow-regime grouping, while samples from ephemeral flow-regime group sites comprised greater than 85 per cent of samples in two trait groups. The two remaining trait groups featured roughly even proportions of samples from across the two flow regime types. Each trait group contained samples from three to nine sites, indicating a degree of consistent community trait structure between rivers. The most numerically-dominant trait group contained nearly a quarter of all samples. This group was also most broadly representative, including samples from nine sites (although more than three-quarters of samples were from the six near-perennial sites). Group 7 was the most unique grouping, dominated by samples from the Light River (88 per cent). This site was unique in having very high ambient salinity despite near-perennial streamflow (electrical conductivity values were typically 8000–10,000 µS cm-1). No trait group contained samples collected exclusively following low-flow conditions, though some evidence of the influence of antecedent flow conditions was apparent. Relatively high proportions of samples collected following antecedent low flows or cease-to-flow periods were evident in four of seven groups (groups 2–5). Low and cease-to-flow conditions were most dominant in groups 3 and 5, which were predominantly from ephemeral and near-perennial sites respectively. Although indicative trait states for both groups included those predicted to be favoured under low-flow conditions, these were more apparent in group 3. The distribution of functional diversity within groups differed. Group 3 (86 per cent ephemeral site samples) had the lowest median and second highest within-group variability but group 5 (94 per cent near-perennial site samples) were among the highest median value and had the lowest within-group variability. NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series 5 At the whole-of-sample scale, vector analysis suggested the magnitude of recent flows and the number of zero-flow days over the previous three months were influential in structuring trait diversity. Flows over the seven days before sampling loaded in the opposite direction to the same statistic over a 90-day period, which may represent the impact of short-term highflow events impacting on trait diversity. Season was also statistically significant (p <0.01), as suggested by the distribution of samples between the trait groupings. Table 1: Summary characteristics of indicative traits within the seven traits groups shown in Figure 7. Low flow for this analysis is indicative of mean daily streamflow less than half the volume of the non-zero median. Trait Characteristics of antecedent flow or flow Indicative group traits group regime (indicator species analysis p <0.05) 1 Generally continuous, though low/moderate antecedent flow magnitude (10% of samples collected following low-flow conditions); mostly spring samples; mostly perennial flow-regime site groups. Long time to reach maturity; semivoltinism; respire via pneumostome; second-highest median functional diversity. 2 Relatively high proportion of samples collected following low-flow periods, but generally continuous flow; mostly spring samples; mixture of flow regime site groups. 3 Highest proportion of low-flow and second highest cease-to-flow antecedent conditions. Largely autumn samples from ephemeral flowregime site groups. Predatory taxa; high dispersal capability for drift as well as flight; lowest functional diversity. 4 No low-flow samples, and recent flow typically higher than the long-term median. Some cease-to-flow samples; mixture of flow regime site groups. Filter-feeding; low salinity tolerance. 5 High proportion of low-flow samples; high proportion of cease-to-flow samples; most samples in autumn; mostly perennial flowregime site groups. Highest trait functional dispersion; terrestrial reproduction; diverse feeding strategies; fast maturing; univoltine. 6 No cease-to-flow, very few low-flow samples; mostly autumn samples; all perennial flowregime site groups. Respire via gills; plant-based feeding strategies; highest median functional diversity. 7 Perennial-flow dominant; no low-flow and few cease-to-flow samples; almost entirely from the Light River (ephemeral site group). Multivoltine; high salinity tolerance; detritivores; low functional diversity. Respire via plastron; low, but highly variable functional diversity. 2.1.3 Conclusions A consistent finding across the two scales of analysis was the decreased functional diversity and indicative trait states with ephemeral flow regimes. The effects of low flows on macroinvertebrate communities appear to depend firstly on the prevailing flow regime for the river system under consideration, which is consistent with ecological theory (Townsend & Hildrew 1994; Poff 1997; Poff et al. 1997). Ephemeral sites are capable of supporting a limited number of biological attributes (traits) and as a result, flow persistence is associated with communities exhibiting higher levels of functional diversity at site as well as sample scales. High salinity and highly modified land use appear influential and likely impose constraints even under conditions of near-perennial flow. Conversely, perennial headwaters and/or high proportions of catchment native vegetation result in the intermittent Rocky River macroinvertebrate community being more consistent with perennial sites. No association between reduced functional diversity and antecedent low-flow or cease-to-flow conditions were apparent for sites from the near-perennial flow-regime group. In a near- NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series 6 perennial South Australian river system this analysis suggests that functional diversity may not be measurably impacted by flow magnitude, at least for the range of flow conditions, taxonomic resolution and range of traits examined. An association between low functional diversity and low antecedent flow conditions was apparent for ephemeral sites, but at present there is an insufficient number of sites or samples to be able to quantify this. Similarly, while observed differences in functional diversity and favoured trait states were consistent across the two scales of analysis, establishing any possible flow-based transition threshold between these end-points is not possible. Mean annual cease-to-flow durations and/or inter-annual variability in this appear to play a role, but this did not universally distinguish between sites or community traits. The results strongly suggest the role of groundwater discharge to streams in creating more perennial flow conditions. Sites where groundwater input is reliable are most likely those where near-perennial conditions occur. It is important the spatial variability of groundwater input is considered in flow-restoration planning, especially where a biological response is predicted. Structuring future studies of aquatic flora and fauna around gradients in groundwater/surface water interaction is an area worthy of further research in South Australia. This will build understanding essential to informing water allocation planning for realistic flowbased ecological restoration. Given the prevailing fractured rock environment over much of the state, however, simply mapping the groundwater/surface water physical interaction is challenging and insights gained through research may be difficult to incorporate into resource planning. Without the ability to model changes in groundwater discharge to streams for a given development scenario, the value in understanding changes in biological patterns that may result is reduced. Although a number of findings align with previously published studies on macroinvertebrate trait flow relationships, many more indicative trait states for drought-tolerant taxa such as body size, armouring and desiccation resistance of propagules (Poff 1997; Bonada et al. 2007; Diaz et al. 2008; Robson et al. 2011) were not available. Development of databases with this information is critical if predictive models of macroinvertebrate communities are to be developed for climate change adaptation or resource development planning. Notwithstanding these limitations, this work demonstrates the usefulness of trait data as a means to link patterns of diversity (macroinvertebrate family abundance) to habitat conditions (streamflow). These analyses provide a more powerful means for managers to interpret what changes in the flow regime may mean for macroinvertebrates, or any biota for which trait data are available. The usefulness and insight which can be generated will only increase as genuslevel trait data becomes available. Investment in developing a trait database for all aquatic flora and fauna should be a national priority if predictive capacity to inform management decisions based on ecological processes is seen as important. 2.2 Introduction Aquatic macroinvertebrates have been widely used as determinants of stream condition, and there is a long history of their use in flow-related ecological investigations. The database used in this study is made available to all researchers and the public by the data custodians, the South Australian Environmental Protection Authority (EPA). The data itself represents macroinvertebrate samples collected from across South Australia, which were used to construct the AusRivAS models of macroinvertebrate community structure. Data from 12 sites that were co-located with gauging stations and had a period of record from 1994 to 2007 (with the exception of 1996) were selected for further analysis as part of this project. Streamflow data (also freely available) for the relevant sites was obtained from the State Surface Water archive maintained by the South Australian Department for Water. NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series 7 Macroinvertebrate data were collected according to AusRivAS protocols, and involved sampling a 10-m linear section of either edge (pool; i.e. still water environments) and riffle (where present) habitats using a standard 250-micron sweep net. Data used in this study is lumped to family-level taxonomic resolution to allow comparisons across results from other state jurisdictions. In the original datasets, samples were identified to the maximum possible resolution, usually to genus or species level. A brief exploratory analysis of the differences between using family and genus-level data suggested that where strong trends were indicated in data, no change in conclusion resulted when switching between the two levels of taxonomic resolution. Trait data were however not available at resolution below family, but once available will likely be of much higher value given intra-family variation in traits (Robson et al. 2011). The value of using biological traits as a means to link ecological patterns to mechanistic processes has long been recognised and used as a basis to formulate some well-tested theories of aquatic ecosystem function (Townsend & Hildrew 1994; Poff 1997). Trait-based analysis of macroinvertebrate communities has over recent years particularly resulted in the development of a significant body of knowledge (e.g. Lamouroux et al. 2004; Bêche et al. 2006; Diaz et al. 2008; Miller et al. 2010; Kefford et al. 2011; Schäfer et al. 2011; Walters 2011). The aim of this analysis was to link macroinvertebrate communities, in terms of the trait structure and diversity, to streamflow at two broad scales. Sites were firstly characterised in terms of the dominant traits across all samples and linked to the flow regime at the site. Individual samples were then analysed for similarities in trait structure between sites and any relationship between trait-based groups of samples and the antecedent flow conditions were investigated. 2.2.1 Limitations of the dataset A number of methodological factors associated with the approach to sampling within the AusRivAS protocols need consideration when interpreting the results of analysis conducted on this, or any other AusRivAS dataset – especially when jurisdictions are compared. Firstly, the absence of a riffle sample at a given site does not mean no flowing water habitat was present. Consistent with the protocol, in South Australia riffle habitat was not sampled unless at least a 10-m section of habitat could be accessed at the site. This means data are biased towards conditions where flow was present. Another confounding feature of the data for this study may be present where samples with no or few macroinvertebrates were collected may have been discarded without being quantitatively recorded. In South Australia most sites feature only seasonal flow, and following the onset of flow, a period of time is required before the system transitions from a terrestrial habitat to a riverine system. This requires time for the necessary biofilms to establish, creating the basal sources for the foodweb, and allowing true aquatic species to proliferate through the system (P McEvoy & P Goonan, personal communications 2011). While a sample that found no macroinvertebrates at a given site would have provided valuable data to provide interpretation in this project, for the purposes it was collected (to characterise the macroinvertebrate fauna at a site) it was of no value and was not recorded. Sampling trips were similarly undertaken once the onset of flow was known to have occurred, hence late cease-to-flow season samples that would have characterised this phase of the trajectory in wetter regions of the state are under-represented. Despite these limitations, the dataset represents an invaluable annual time-series of the status of macroinvertebrate communities over time and analysis undertaken for this study represents one of few attempts to link the observations to flow. NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series 8 2.2.2 Previous work considering South Australian macroinvertebrate flow dependencies The major previous effort to assess macroinvertebrate flow-related ecology in South Australia was undertaken in the context of establishing an optimal flow regime for water allocation planning purposes in the Mount Lofty Ranges (see Vanlaarhoven & van der Wielen 2009 for references and the process to determine these). Consistent with the climatic limitations on habitat extent (especially lotic habitat), ecological values for different sites were based on the presence of flowing habitat. Twelve different flow-related habitat value classes were assigned to different reaches within the Mount Lofty Ranges based on the presence, absence and reliability of permanent still and flowing water habitat (e.g. a site that always had edge as well as riffle habitat in autumn and spring would be assigned the highest ecological value). In this manner, time-series data for a subset of sites included in this study were used to assess the flow characteristics (metrics in the water allocation planning sense) that supported optimal macroinvertebrate community structure. As indicated in Section 1.2 above, the nature of South Australian aquatic ecology is very much driven by refugia from the seasonal drought conditions. Even very small springs with perennial flow are critical habitats. 2.3 Methods 2.3.1 Study sites Time-series data from 12 sites were available for analysis (Table 2 and Figure 1; note Cooper Creek is not shown in Figure 1 to improve clarity). The geographical spread of sites is largely along the central high rainfall areas associated with the Mount Lofty Ranges, and these capture the latitudinal variation well (Figure 1). Data presented for the Cooper Creek provides an extreme in north-south variation, though this site perhaps should be considered unique owing to the large-scale non-local influences which drive the hydrology. East-west gradients are not representative of the entire state, but only limited surface water is found beyond the central region and the higher rainfall areas are well covered. Flow data from the South Australian State Surface Water archive from 1979 to 2007 was obtained, with any gaps in the record infilled using linear interpolation based on correlations with nearby sites. These data were used to calculate all daily and annual streamflow statistics for macroinvertebrate sample flow-dependence interpretation. Table 2 presents summary statistics on the catchments used in the study. NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series 9 Table 2: Site names and summary statistics, 1979–2007 Site code Site name Area (km2) Elev (mAHD) Annual Median BFI Ann. rainfall daily 2 zero- (mm)1 flow flow (ML) days CV3 Typ EC4 A2390519 Mosquito Creek, Struan 1215 54 614 5.25 0.16 8 4.0 2389 A0030503 Cooper Creek, Cullyamurra 23000 43 250 110.3 0.19 123 5.9 204 A4260504 Finniss River, E of Yundi 193 203 851 6.93 0.17 5 3.8 1310 A5010500 Hindmarsh River 56 90 884 3.54 0.24 11 2.9 1090 A5020502 Myponga River 76 214 865 6.17 0.25 3 2.7 736 A5040512 Torrens River, Mt Pleasant 26 415 684 0.11 0.09 119 6.4 2813 A5040517 Torrens River, First Creek 5 284 972 0.71 0.32 0 2.3 350 A5050532 Light River, Mingays W'Hole 838 226 504 1.90 0.14 2 8.0 8265 A5070500 Hill R, near Andrews 235 322 556 0.38 0.12 176 7.1 6630 A5090503 Kanyaka Creek 187 246 300 0.18 0.08 176 25.9 9586 A5130501 Rocky River, u/s gorge falls 189 77 783 8.45 0.28 80 2.7 2389 A4260533 Bremer River, near Hartley 49 39 425 2.86 0.15 135 5.6 3150 1. Mean catchment rainfall or visual estimate from annual rainfall isohyets generated from Bureau of Meterology data. 2. Baseflow index, the ratio of mean annual baseflow to mean annual flow – an indication of groundwater input. 3. Coefficient of variation in annual streamflow. 4. Average of field electrical conductivity readings at the site of macroinvertebrate sampling. Data – EPA. NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series 10 Figure 1: Location of study catchments for case studies presented in this chapter (Cooper Creek not shown). NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series 11 2.3.2 Data processing Macroinvertebrate data Abundance data Macroinvertebrate abundance data from the South Australian EPA was sourced at a range of taxonomic levels, many of a greater precision than required for this project. All data were firstly summarised at family level to allow use of traits data at this resolution and to allow interjurisdictional comparison. Further processing was undertaken as required for each analysis. For the meta analysis at a river scale, the probability of detection, rather than abundance data was adopted following the philosophy employed by Chessman (2009) in analysing AusRivAS datasets from New South Wales. Probability of sampling of each family at each river was estimated as the simple proportion of total samples that taxon was observed within. No effort was made to stratify by season, but habitat was restricted to edge samples. Although this would likely under-represent the more rheophilic taxa, numbers of riffle samples were highly variable between sites, while edge samples were relatively consistent. The total number of edge samples was 289 and replication at each site ranged from 21 to 25. Prevalence data for each family with traits data available was used in the analysis at the river scale. Biological sampling data was processed in different ways depending on the intended uses. For traits analysis, data was first sub-sampled to select only those families for which trait data were available (n= 50). Data were then relativised to sample total abundance following the methods presented in Miller et al. (2010) to prepare the sites by species matrix for further pre-processing (see Section 2.3.3 below for data analysis). Traits data A recently-published traits database (Schäfer et al. 2011) was adapted for use as a low-flow traits database in the current study as a component of the project (Rolls, unpublished data 2011). Additional information on functional feeding groups provided by the EPA (Goonan, unpublished data 2011) was also incorporated to provide an additional level of local relevance. While the Schäfer et al. (2011) traits (four levels) provide a high-level indication of trophic status within samples, the functional feeding groups (six levels) allowed for a finerscale interpretation of relative trait abundances. Flow variables Flow regime summary variables for river-scale analysis A range of flow variables were calculated to describe the flow regime at each river. Table 3 describes these and the rationale behind selection of each variable. Summary statistics were calculated using the River Analysis Package ‘RAP’ (Version 3.0.3) (Marsh et al. 2003) or using Microsoft Excel. Antecedent flow conditions for sample analysis Simple duration and magnitude statistics were calculated for antecedent flow conditions immediately before sampling based on periods of 7, 30, 90 and 180 days. Magnitude was represented by the average daily flow, while duration was recorded in two ways: the number of zero-flow days in the antecedent period and the duration in days of the current-flow or cease-to-flow period. NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series 12 Finally, to allow for an indication of the context of antecedent flow magnitudes in terms of the historical flow conditions at each site, 30 and 90 day values for each river were re-scaled according to the non-zero median daily flow for each. These two flow variables are thus in units of non-zero median daily flow and an indicated flow of 1 represents non-zero-flow for the site concerned. This allowed for simple sub-sampling of antecedent flow conditions based on a ratio of the non-zero median daily flow at all sites. For the purposes of establishing if antecedent flow conditions could be considered to be low flows, an effectively arbitrary threshold of half the non-zero median was adopted unless otherwise discussed. Table 3: Streamflow metrics used to characterise flow regime at the 12 sampling sites Variable Description Rationale rank.ave Ranked average daily flow Ranks used to compensate for the large range in flow magnitude across sites rank.med Ranked median daily flow Similar to above mean.ann. bfi The average of the annual baseflow index Used to indicate the reliance of the site on groundwater discharge in terms of volume cv.ann.bfi Coefficient of variation in the above To provide an indication of inter-annual variability in groundwater-sourced streamflow cv.d.bf Coefficient of variation in daily baseflow To provide an indication of short-term variability col.p.m Colwells Predictability on a monthly time step Index of monthly variability cv.zqd Coefficient of variation in zero-flow days per year To provide an indication of the variability in the duration of the seasonal drought ave.zqd Mean number of zero-flow days per year To provide an indication of the magnitude of the annual cease-to-flow period ave.P10 Mean of the annual 10th percentile flow calculated on daily streamflow To provide an indication of inter-annual variability in low-flow magnitude cv.ave.q Mean of annual coefficient of variation in daily flow To provide an indication of short-term variability in streamflow name 2.3.3 Data analysis Data analysis involved the following stages: combining trait and abundance data; classifying groups using hierarchical clustering methods; characterising flow conditions correlated with each of the grouping patterns; and testing multivariate, factor and vector correlations on community dissimilarities. All data analysis was conducted in the statistical programming language R 2.13.0 (R Development Core Team 2010), using packages ‘vegan’ (Oksanen et al. 2011), ‘labdsv’ (Roberts 2011) and FD (Laliberté & Shipley 2011). Trait-based classification and grouping Abundance and trait datasets were firstly combined following the methods of Miller et al. (2010), where the river (or sample) by family matrix was firstly relativised by rows (either river or sample) before matrix multiplication with the binary-coded traits matrix to create a river-bytrait (or sample-by-trait) prevalence matrix (Miller et al. 2010). The resulting matrix was arcsine square root transformed and a Bray Curtis dissimilarity matrix (Bray & Curtis 1956) was then generated for use in classification and ordination. Ward’s minimum variance method was used in clustering as this approach minimises the distances from group centroids across the total sample space (Legendre & Legendre 1998), resulting in tight clusters within multidimensional (trait–abundance) space. This tends to NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series 13 create a dendrogram structure well-suited to pruning into trait functional groups (for an example of this approach see Laliberte et al. 2011). Optimal ecological pruning heights for dendrograms to group trait combinations were established based on either visual inspection (river scale) or minimising the average p-value in indicator species analysis as suggested by Dufrene & Legendre (1997). Non-metric multidimensional scaling was used to ordinate data into two-dimensional space to allow for vector/factor correlation analysis with ordination axes. The classification based on flow regime summary statistics (Table 3) was used as a basis to investigate the dominant traits in the river-scale analysis. The dendrogram was pruned at heights giving equal size groupings. Characterising trait groups A number of methods were used to characterise the flow environments correlated with each of the groups identified using graphical techniques and simple proportions. The functional dispersion index (FDis) of Laliberté & Legendre (2010) provides an indication of the variance in trait space by calculating the mean distance in trait space distance for each species to the group centroid. A higher value for FDis indicates higher dispersion of trait characteristics within trait space, which can be viewed as a more functionally-diverse community. The FDis statistic provided a comparison between the different trait groups and for the families present within each group for a given sample (community). Flow correlations Mantel tests of matrix correlation were used to compare dissimilarity matrices of taxonomic, flow regime, trait prevalence and geographical proximity for the river-scale analysis. Techniques used to determine correlations between flow and traits at sample scales employed vector analysis for correlations of non-metric multidimensional scaling ordination axes. In these analyses, typically around half the variation was explained simply by the factor variable ‘river’. Permutation tests to determine correlation were thus stratified by river (i.e. permutations only occurred within rivers, rather than between) to test the null model that antecedent flow conditions have no effect on community dissimilarity within a river system. 2.4 Results 2.4.1 Flow–trait relationships at site scale Ward’s minimum variance hierarchical clustering applied to the Bray Curtis matrix of trait prevalence resulted in a dendrogram with two equal-sized clusters at the highest dissimilarity level (groups 1 and 2, Figure 2). Comparison with a purely flow-based classification (Figure 3, Euclidean distance matrix on the summary statistics in Table 3) suggests some similarities in small-scale clustering, but broadscale structure differs somewhat, with three higher level groups evident based on flow alone. Closer inspection indicates that group 1 in Figure 2 is effectively intact in the flow-based classification as well (Figure 3), with the exception that based on the hydrological statistics, Mosquito Creek groups with the Light River and Cooper Creek. The major structural difference is the closer affinity of the Light, Mosquito and Cooper group with the group 1 rivers from the trait classification, though these clearly form a separate group based on hydrology. NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series 14 Differences in flow regimes for the trait prevalence classification groups are evident in the respective means for the flow statistics (Figure 4). The division largely represents the variability in streamflow and duration of cease-to-flow periods. Rivers in group 1 (First, Rocky, Finniss, Hindmarsh, Mosquito and Myponga) are all located in relatively high rainfall areas and have higher baseflow contributions (mean baseflow index of 0.27 vs 0.17 in group 2 rivers; Figure 4). Baseflow is also of relatively low inter-annual variability at these sites (cv.ann.bfi in Figure 4) than in group 2 rivers (Cooper, Light, Hill, Kanyaka, Bremer and Torrens). An exception to this pattern is the coefficient of variation in the number of zero-flow days per year. Most group 1 rivers generally had very short, if any, cease-to-flow periods but Rocky River had longer durations, increasing the mean value of this variable across the nearperennial-group rivers (group 1). Group 2 0.3 Group 1 Light Hill Torrens Bremer Cooper Myponga Mosquito Hindmarsh Finniss Rocky First 0.0 0.1 Kanyaka 0.2 Height 0.4 0.5 0.6 Group 2 rivers have a mean annual cease-to-flow of 135 days, compared with a mean of 22 days for the group 1 rivers. Along with the baseflow statistics, this indicates the classifications largely differentiate between ephemeral sites with long annual cease-to-flow periods (e.g. Hill, Kanyaka, Cooper) and perennial or intermittent sites with only a short annual cease-to-flow (e.g. First, Hindmarsh, Myponga). However, there are exceptions to this, with the Rocky River site clustering with the low variability rivers despite a mean number of zero-flow days per year of 106. Similarly the Light River is almost perennial, yet it clusters with the high-variability rivers. Variation in baseflow is the predominant reason for the groupings, as the Light River is highly variable from year to year, while Rocky River has a consistently high baseflow index and low inter-annual variability. If these two rivers are removed, the average number of zeroflow days in the group 1 rivers is reduced to six, while group 2 rivers without the Light River average 161 days per year of no-flow. Figure 2: Dendrogram showing Ward’s method clustering of the trait prevalence dissimilarity matrix. NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series 15 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 Mosquito Myponga Finniss Hindmarsh Rocky First Torrens Bremer Hill Kanyaka 0.5 0.0 Light Cooper 1.5 1.0 Height Figure 3: Dendrogram showing Ward’s method clustering of the flow statistics distance matrix 1.6 Mean Group Value 1.4 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 Group 1 0.4 Group 2 0.2 0 Figure 4: Mean value for selected flow statistics for the two major groupings in Figure 2. Flow statistic codes and descriptions shown in Table 3. The NMDS ordination of the trait prevalence data (Figure 5) indicates two flow variables were significantly correlated (p < 0.01) with site dissimilarities, and these load in a similar fashion. The coefficient of variation of daily streamflow and annual baseflow indices are aligned closely1 along NMDS axis 1, which also aligns with the maximum dissimilarity gradient (Oksanen et al. 2011). Hence vector analysis suggests this major gradient is correlated with the variability of the rivers at daily and annual scales. Centroids for trait prevalence 1 Pre-processing removed statistics with correlations exceeding 0.7, though these variables were close to this value r = 0.68 NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series 16 0.2 0.3 (analogous to species abundance in this analysis) are also shown on the ordination, and are also largely distributed along the axis 1 gradient. ffg.pred matur.quart cv.ave.q 0.1 cv.ann.bfi terr.month univoltine matur.semi.ann reprod.terr resp.plast 0.0 NMDS2 ffg.shdr ec.med.low matur.month resp.pneu ffg.scrpr ffg.gath -0.1 reprod.ovo matur.ann terr.surf terr.semi ec.med disp.flight ec.high terr.quart terr.edge ffg.coll reprod.aq semivoltine matur.sup.ann terr.aqua ec.low -0.2 resp.gill disp.drift -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 NMDS1 Figure 5: NMDS ordination (stress = 7%) of the trait prevalence dataset. Convex hulls enclosing the two groups shown in Figure 2 are drawn in red, with group 1 on the left. Centroids of trait prevalence are shown in blue, and significant (p < 0.01) flow vectors in green (see Table 3 for descriptions of flow variables, and Appendix 1 for traits). Matrix correlations Mantel tests were used to evaluate the correlation between the trait abundance, taxonomic, flow and geographical association matrices (Table 4). Dissimilarity matrices based on traits as well as taxonomic data were positively and significantly correlated with flow (p < 0.01). Despite having reasonably high r values, neither matrix was significantly correlated with geography (p > 0.05). A partial mantel test of the correlation between traits and flow constrained to control for geographical proximity had a Mantel r value of 0.38 and was statistically significant (p < 0.01). The abundance (i.e. taxonomic) data had a higher matrix correlation with flow variables than the trait prevalence matrix. This may be a result of the incomplete nature of the trait database. NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series 17 Table 4: Results of Mantel tests for correlation (r value) between the flow, traits, family and geographical proximity matrices. Traits by Family Streamflow prevalence abundance summary data data statistics Streamflow summary statistics 0.46** 0.59** - Spatial proximity 0.27 0.34 0.48** (** p < 0.01, otherwise p > 0.05) Differences in trait composition With reference to the two trait-based site classification groups shown in Figure 2, indicator species analysis of the trait by prevalence dataset did not result in any traits diagnostic of group 2 (the highly variable rivers). In contrast 10 trait states were significantly (p < 0.01) associated with group 1 rivers (Table 5). These represent a range of traits and multiple states within these, suggesting a more diverse range of traits is supported under the more reliable flow conditions. Table 5: Traits identified through indicator analysis as being significantly associated (p<0.01) with rivers in group 1 (Figure 2). Trait state Indicator value Functional feeding group shredder 0.766 Functional feeding group gatherer 0.6954 Respiration pneumostome 0.5972 Surface-dwelling 0.6571 Semi-terrestrial life-history 0.6554 Time to maturity 1 year 0.6497 Time to maturity <4 weeks 0.6044 Reproduction via ovoviviparity 0.5994 Low to moderate salinity tolerance 0.7318 Moderate salinity tolerance 0.6601 Direct evidence for a greater range of supported trait states under the more reliable conditions is provided in the relative distribution of functional dispersion scores between the individual edge samples (n = 289) used to generate the trait prevalence dataset. When stratified by the river groups from Figure 2, samples collected from group 1 rivers consistently have a higher functional dispersion index, and are less variable in terms of this measure of functional complexity2 . 2 The higher the value observed for the functional dispersion index, the broader the range of traits represented in the community. NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series 18 6.0 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 Functional Dispersion Index 1 2 River Group Figure 6: Distribution of functional dispersion values for the two broad groupings shown in Figure 2. Notches indicate the approximate 95 per cent confidence intervals. 2.4.2 Flow–trait relationships within samples Data for all riffle samples across the 12 rivers (n=161) were analysed using similar methods to those employed for sites (see Section 2.4.1 above). The aim of sample analysis was to gain a better understanding of how short-term variations in streamflow, as opposed to long-term flow regimes, affect trait expression in macroinvertebrate communities. The trait by abundance dissimilarity matrix for the riffle samples was classified using Ward’s minimum variance method. The dendrogram pruning height to provide optimal ecological information as determined by indicator species analysis (Dufrene & Legendre 1997) was a Bray Curtis dissimilarity of 1.2, which generated seven groups (Figure 7). These are referred to as ‘trait groups’ to distinguish from the river groups in the previous analysis. Trait group membership was driven by a range of factors including river, season, flow regime type and antecedent flow conditions (Table 6). Each trait group had at least two trait states indicative at statistically-significant levels (p < 0.05; Table 7). Simple summaries of indicative trait states for each group are described in Table 1 in the Summary of this chapter along with a verbal description of the key observed flow regime characteristics. Additional detail is provided below. NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series 19 7 6 5 4 3 2 Height 1 4 3 2 6 5 1 0 7 Figure 7: Ward’s minimum variance classification of the traits by abundance matrix. Groupings reflect the optimal pruning height suggested by indicator species analysis. Indicative traits were identified for each group. For group membership see Appendix 2. Streamflow and other characteristics of groups Differences between trait groups suggest cease-to-flow events, sampling season and site were all apparently involved in structuring community traits as indicated by sample groupings (see Table 6). Trait groupings reflected the influence of flow regime as determined in the sitescale analysis to a large degree. Greater than 75 per cent of samples in three trait groups (groups 1, 5 and 6) were from the perennial flow-regime grouping, while samples from ephemeral flow-regime group sites comprised greater than 85 per cent of samples in two trait groups (groups 3 and 7). The two remaining trait groups (groups 2 and 4) featured roughly even proportions of samples from across the two flow regime types (Table 6). Each trait group contained samples from three to nine sites. Trait group 1 was numerically dominant containing nearly a quarter of all samples. This group was also the most broadly representative, including samples from nine sites (although over 75 per cent of samples were from the perennial flow-regime sites). Antecedent flow conditions characterising this group were low to moderate in magnitude but generally continuous, while relatively high functional diversity was a feature of the macroinvertebrate community (Table 1, Figure 11). Group 7 was the most distinctive grouping, dominated by samples from the Light River (88 per cent). This sample group was unique in having near-perennial streamflow despite the high ambient salinity in the catchment (electrical conductivities typically c. 8000 µS cm-1). NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series 20 Table 6: Selected characteristics of the different trait groups Traits group Characteristic 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Number of samples in group 39 19 22 18 16 22 25 Number of rivers represented 9 6 6 6 4 4 3 Most common river First Torrens Cooper Rocky Rocky Hindmarsh/ Myponga Light (% of samples from above river) 26% 42% 41% 39% 50% 36% 88% Proportion of samples collected in spring 67% 63% 36% 67% 13% 23% 52% Proportion of samples collected following low-flow conditions1 10% 21% 27% 0% 19% 9% 0% Proportion of samples collected following cease-toflow conditions2 8% 16% 50% 22% 56% 0% 8% Proportion of samples from group 1 sites 3 79% 42% 14% 44% 94% 100% 4% Median duration of antecedent flow events >365 169 112 170 51 >365 >365 1: 30-day antecedent mean daily flows of less than a quarter that of the long-term non-zero median daily flow are considered indicative of low-flow conditions. 2: A cease-to-flow period occuring in the 90 days before sampling. 3: Group 1 sites as defined in the site-scale analysis, with broadly perennial flow regimes (see Figure 2). Seasonal dominance is evident in many groups: trait groups 3, 5 and 6 predominantly comprise autumn samples; groups 1, 2, and 4 are around two-thirds spring samples; while group 7 shows no seasonal dominance (Table 6). No trait group contained samples collected exclusively following low-flow conditions, but relatively high proportions of samples collected following antecedent low or cease-to-flow periods were evident in four of seven groups (groups 2–5). Trait groups 3 and 5 are distinguished by having relatively high proportions of zero-flow days in the three months before sampling. Group 3 had around one-third of samples collected following low-flow periods3 and is the most clearly dominated by antecedent low flows and cease-to-flow periods. Traits groups 1, 6 and 7 were mostly collected following periods of continuous streamflow for at least a year, meaning sites from where these were collected were effectively perennial over the sampling period (Table 6). The distribution of antecedent flow conditions in terms of median flow magnitude show limited differentiation. Most trait groups included samples collected following a range in flow conditions over 30-day (Figure 8) and 90-day (Figure 9) antecedent periods. Trait group 1 3 Low flows were defined for this purpose as being less than one quarter of the median non-zero daily flow. As no allowance was made for cease-to-flow periods in the calculation of average flow statistics, any such period during the calculation window would also contribute to lower values for the daily mean flow. NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series 21 100 50 0 Rank order of 30d antecedent flow/nz median 150 samples had the lowest median ranking for the month before sampling, and second-lowest median ranking for the 90-day antecedent period, though only 10 per cent of samples were deemed as collected following low-flow conditions. Trait group 7 is distinguished in the figures for a relatively low variation in antecedent flow magnitudes for both time windows. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Traits group 100 50 0 Rank order of 90d antecedent flow/nz median 150 Figure 8: Boxplot summary of the rank order of the 30-day antecedent flow as a ratio of the non-zero median by traits group. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Traits group Figure 9: Boxplot summary of the rank order of the 90-day antecedent flow as a ratio of the non-zero median by traits group. NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series 22 In ordination space the trait groups exhibit different degrees of overlap (Figure 10). Trait groups 5 to 7 occupy distinct areas of the plot. Groups 1 to 4 share considerable common area, with groups 2 and 4 having substantial overlap (Figure 10). Environmental correlations with NMDS axes (stratified by site to control for inter-basin variation) indicated antecedent flow magnitude and cease-to-flow periods for 90 days before sampling were significantly correlated (p < 0.01). Antecedent flows for seven days before sampling was also a significant factor at the same level, but loaded in the opposite direction to the 90-day flow variable (Figure 10). Season was also significantly correlated with the ordination. As with Figure 5, NMDS axes have been rotated to align the maximum gradient along axis 1. None of the significant flow variables are oriented directly along this gradient. f f g.shdr zq.90 0.5 reprod.terr f ood.gen univ oltine sqrt.7 semiv oltine 5 ec.med.low matur.ann terr.quart f matur.sup.ann f g.gath matur.semi.ann resp.pneu matur.month 1 is.spring0 terr.surf 3 reprod.aq resp.plast disp.drif t terr.semi 0.0 NMDS2 f ood.pred f f g.pred terr.month 4 f f g.f ilt ec.low lightis.spring1 2disp.f f f g.coll terr.edge matur.quart f ood.det ec.med f f g.scrpr f ood.plant resp.gill multiv oltine 6 terr.aqua reprod.ov o 7 -0.5 sqrt.90 ec.high -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 NMDS1 Figure 10: NMDS ordination (stress = 13 per cent) of the riffle trait prevalence data. Shown are the trait-based groupings (red polygons enclose samples within each group); environmental vectors and factors with a significant correlation with ordination axes (p < 0.01) are shown in green; and centroids for trait abundance are shown in blue. Trait characteristics and functional diversity of groups Indicator species analysis of the trait-abundance matrix yielded trait states indicative of each trait group (Table 7). The maximum number of indicative states was observed for groups 3 and 6, each having a total of 7. Groups 2 and 4 had the lowest number of statistically-distinct trait states, with two each. NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series 23 Trait states associated with flowing conditions were observed in all groups with the exception of group 7, and were particularly dominant in group 1 (long time to maturity, semivoltinism) and also prevalent in group 6 (lack of terrestrial phase, gills). Indicative trait states that would be predicted under low-flow conditions (Robson et al. 2011) were also observed in every group, but dominated group 7 (multivoltinism, rapid maturity, high salinity tolerance) and group 3 (flight dispersal, dominance of predatory feeding strategies). Table 7: Indicator species analysis results for groups shown in Figure 7. Statistical significance: ** p <0.01; * p <0.05. Trait Description Group Indicator value matur.ann Time to maturity of 1 year 1 0.31** resp.pneu Respiration by pneumostome 1 0.30** terr.quart Terrestrial life phase lasting 1–3 months 1 0.28** matur.sup.ann Time to maturity exceeding 1 year 1 0.19* semivoltine Less than one generation per year 1 0.16** resp.plast Respiration by plastron, spiracle 2 0.25** ffg.coll Feeding group collector 2 0.21** disp.flight Dispersal via flight phase 3 0.24** terr.month Terrestrial life phase lasting less than 1 month 3 0.22** food.pred Trophic level predator 3 0.21** ffg.pred Predatory feeding group 3 0.21** ec.med.low low–moderate salinity tolerance 3 0.21** reprod.aq Reproduces via aquatic eggs 3 0.20** disp.drift Dispersal via drift 3 0.20** ec.low low salinity tolerance 4 0.33** ffg.filt Feeding group filterer 4 0.31** ffg.shdr Feeding group shredder 5 0.53** reprod.terr Reproduces via terrestrial eggs 5 0.49** univoltine One generation per year 5 0.36** food.gen Generalist trophic status 5 0.34** matur.month Time to maturity less than 1 month 5 0.27** ffg.gath Feeding group gatherer 5 0.26** food.plant Plant-based feeding strategy 6 0.45** ffg.scrpr Feeding group scraper 6 0.43** reprod.ovo Reproduces via ovoviviparity 6 0.33** matur.semi.ann Time to maturity 6–12 months 6 0.30** terr.aqua Obligate aquatic (no terrestrial phase) 6 0.24** ec.med Moderate salinity tolerance 6 0.20** resp.gill Respiration via gills 6 0.20** ec.high High salinity tolerance 7 0.56** food.det Detritus-based feeding strategy 7 0.19** matur.quart Time to maturity 1–3 months 7 0.19** multivoltine Multiple generations per year 7 0.16** In terms of the range in functional diversity represented by the sample groups, the highest median levels were observed in samples for trait groups 1, 5 and 6, although group 2 samples exhibit a similar top quartile (Figure 11) . These trait groups are dominated by samples NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series 24 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 Functional dispersion of samples 5.5 6.0 collected in sites with the perennial flow-regime type. Trait group 3 clearly has the lowest median functional dispersion and along with group 2 a higher within-group variation in functional dispersion index scores. Groups 3 and 7 have the two lowest median and upper quartile values and are the two groups dominated by samples from the ephemeral flowregime sites. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Trait group number Figure 11: Boxplot showing the distribution of functional dispersion index scores for the seven trait grouping samples. 2.5 Discussion 2.5.1 The role of flow regime At the broadest classification level, there is considerable similarity in the division of macroinvertebrate communities between the site and sample-scale analyses. Comparison between the hydrological and biological site-scale classifications is generally good and along with the results of the Mantel tests indicate that flow regime is correlated with both taxonomy and trait prevalence, even when geographical proximity is controlled for. Classification of the trait-abundance data for the riffle samples divides into two groups which display a high degree of fidelity with the site grouping. For the right-most cluster of Figure 7 (trait groups 1, 5 and 6) NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series 25 88 per cent of samples are from the perennial site group. Five of the seven trait groups comprise 75 per cent of samples or more from within a single-flow regime grouping. Only two trait groups have roughly equal numbers of samples from both flow regime site groups. This provides an indication that the long-term flow regime exerts the dominant influence on macroinvertebrate communities, hardly a finding new to stream ecology (Walker et al. 1995; Poff et al. 1997; Bunn & Arthington 2002; Sheldon 2006; Bonada et al. 2007). The most apparent difference in the flow regimes of the river groups is the duration of the mean annual cease-to-flow periods. Flow permanence has previously been shown to be correlated with macroinvertebrate community structure and biological traits in Mediterranean rivers across a perennial to ephemeral gradient in Spain (Bonada et al. 2007). The duration of dry seasons (Williams 1996) and the harshness of intermittent streams (Fritz & Dodds 2005) have also been associated with decreased levels of diversity. Similar patterns can evidently be assigned to macroinvertebrate communities in South Australia. It is unsurprising that a group of rivers with a mean annual cease-to-flow period of around three weeks will favour a different suite of biological traits than rivers where the same statistic takes a value of over four months. However the two exceptions to this otherwise clear distinction between sites require further consideration. Rocky River has a mean annual cease-to-flow duration of over 100 days, yet in both the hydrological and biological classifications it groups with the near-perennial sites. Although cease-to-flow conditions are observed at the stream gauge (and site of macroinvertebrate sampling), this is located in a losing section of the catchment (Banks 2010b). The pristine headwaters of the river are a gaining system, where groundwater enters the stream. Perennial baseflow is supplied via shallow sedimentary aquifers and large volume surface storages (Banks 2010b). Despite the longer average cease-to-flow periods at Rocky River, it has the second-lowest value of all sites for inter-annual variability in baseflow and the second-highest baseflow index; hence baseflow is persistent and highly reliable. Moreover, perennial headwaters in the pristine upper catchment will provide ample permanently-flowing habitat. Land use is also highly likely to play a role, as discussed below. The Light River grouping is also an anomaly, being an almost perennial reach that was clustered with the ephemeral group in both hydrological and biological classifications. In terms of hydrology, although perennial through many years, the Light River site has high interannual variability in both the baseflow index and number of zero-flow days. This resulted in the river being grouped with the Cooper and Mosquito creeks in the hydrological classification, although this does not reflect the relative reliability of flow at the site. Traitbased clustering with ephemeral sites is likely due to the high ambient salinity, with electrical conductivity (EC) point readings averaging over 8000 EC over the sampling period. A degree of positive covariance in trait states adapted to ephemeral flow with those for high physiological tolerance to salinity is likely given the usual co-occurrence of these conditions. Salinity is not thought to severely constrain the range of taxon richness observed in South Australian macroinvertebrate communities (McEvoy & Goonan 2003), an observation attributed to the presence of a suite of salinity tolerant taxa. It appears the combination of near-perennial flow and high salinity selects for a unique combination of traits given the dominance of Light River samples in trait group 7, likely representing a high level of diversity among the salinity tolerant taxa. In comparisons of the trait-based river grouping with the hydrological grouping, only Mosquito Creek changes clustering affinity (compare figures 2 and 3). This likely represents the influence of the linear drying trajectory in flow regime that has occurred at the site and is discussed in the following case study. The prevalence of different traits observed at the Mosquito Creek site has altered over the period of data collection, responding to changes in flow regime (case study 2). However, since only the last few samples in this study were collected after the onset of the drier conditions, when averaged over the whole dataset as in NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series 26 this case study, trait prevalences observed reflect those characteristic of both ephemeral and perennial rivers. 2.5.2 Trait responses to flow conditions The long-term flow regime is an example of a regional-scale selective force (or filter; Poff 1997) influencing the range of biological attributes (traits) that allow biota to persist under prevailing conditions. Filters at this scale dictate trait diversity, in turn determining the regional species pool from which communities are assembled in response to shorter-term and smallerscale variations (Poff 1997). Near-perennial flow regimes are associated with increased functional diversity in both scales of investigation in this case study (figures 6 and 11, tables 5 and 7), though this general pattern appears to be modified by salinity and possibly land use. An increase in the diversity of traits observed under less variable flow regimes is consistent with theoretical predictions (Townsend & Hildrew 1994; Poff 1997). Under the Poff (1997) framework an ephemeral flow regime applies additional filters around life-history, body size and drought response of macroinvertebrate biota, reducing the suite of traits suited to persistence. Under the Townsend and Hildrew (1994) river system habitat templet, a combination of factors may lead to higher functional diversity in less variable habitat. Examples of this include limitations in the range of biological traits suitably adapted to harsher conditions and the influence of competition leading to increased niche differentiation (e.g. allowing for more specialised feeding or other strategies) under more constant flow regimes (Townsend & Hildrew 1994). Many indicative trait states in perennial-site-dominant groups (groups 1, 5 and 6) are more readily associated with ephemeral conditions, but few perennial traits were associated with ephemeral-site-dominant groups (groups 3 and 7). Although antecedent flow conditions were not highly informative, overall trait states are in accord with predictions from ecological theory (Townsend & Hildrew 1994; Poff 1997; Williams 1996; Robson et al. 2011) once flow regime associations are considered. Some examples of this are: A predatory feeding strategy, high tolerance to salinity and high dispersal capability were indicative for trait group 3 , which are all linked to low or temporary flow conditions (Boulton & Lake 1992; Williams 1996; Bogan & Lytle 2007; Bonada et al. 2007; Diaz et al. 2008; Robson et al. 2011; Walters 2011). This group comprised 86 per cent of samples from ephemeral sites. Groups 1, 5 and 6 were largely (79 to 100 per cent) comprised of samples associated with perennial flow regimes and tended to have indicative trait states more likely to be favoured under reliable streamflow conditions (Townsend & Hildrew 1994; Bonada et al. 2007) including diverse feeding strategies, long times to reach maturity, semivoltinism and respiration via gills. In addition to being consistent with ecological theory, findings are also supported by previous studies. Bonada et al. (2007) in a study of rivers in north-eastern Spain identified distinctive traits for perennial, intermittent and ephemeral regimes, which are supported by the samplescale analysis. While no indicative traits were identified for ephemeral conditions at the site scale in the present study, they were evident at sample scale, and this appears to reflect methodological differences between this current study and Bonada et al. (2007). However, conclusions of both studies are effectively the same and consistent with theoretical prediction: rather than highly variable rivers having a unique suite of indicative trait states corresponding only to these conditions, these represent subsets of the traits observed in the less variable rivers. NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series 27 Season, although undoubtedly correlated with flow, is suggested as partially structuring communities. Although not as evident in trait group membership as flow regime, the NMDS ordination suggests this influence is important. In addition to flow regime, other selective filters which operate at regional scales and below are land use and resource development (Poff 1997). Semi-arid catchments are especially sensitive to water resource development, even small farm dam storages (Hughes 2005) and both land use and development exert an influence on macroinvertebrate communities (Brown et al. 1997; Kay et al. 2001; Townsend et al. 2003; Bonada et al. 2007; Collier 2008; Diaz et al. 2008; Miller et al. 2010; Schäfer et al. 2011). While geographically remote, First Creek and Rocky River are more or less dominated by woody native vegetation cover. This represents the most unique land use, with catchments for all other sites largely under agriculture and widely cleared. These sites grouped together in both classifications, despite the differences in cease-to-flow conditions. The hydrological affinity between the two sites relates to their high baseflow index and low inter-annual variability in this, while the biological classification suggests similarly high functional diversity. Trait group 5 was predominantly comprised of samples from Rocky River, and the indicative feeding group state of shredder suggests land use at least in part is attributable to the elevated functional diversity by providing more vegetative matter. While antecedent flow magnitude did not discriminate well between trait groups, correlations were observed over the sample as a whole. The manner in which 90-day and seven-day antecedent flow magnitudes loaded in opposite directions on the NDMS ordination suggests opposite influences were involved. The short-term influence of flow magnitude may reflect larger events in the period immediately before sampling, removing taxa without adequate behavioural or other strategies to resist high-flow events. Flood events were observed to alter community structure in a study of an intermittent stream in Victoria, which recovered to preevent levels within two weeks (Boulton & Lake 1992). The 90-day flow vector loaded in the same direction as season, and may partly reflect the influence on community structure of higher flow conditions associated with spring. The effect of low flows on macroinvertebrate communities appears to depend firstly on the prevailing flow regime for the river system under consideration consistent with ecological theory (Townsend & Hildrew 1994; Poff 1997; Poff et al. 1997). In a relatively reliable South Australian river system it appears likely from the analysis that flow magnitude will not necessarily impact functional diversity, at least at the taxonomic resolution available here. Flow persistence is associated with the highest levels of trait diversity at both site and sample scales, although high salinity and highly modified land uses likely impose constraints even under perennially-flowing conditions. 2.5.3 Implications for management The question of how much flow can be removed from a system without impacting the ecology is closely aligned with questions of low-flow impact. A number of recently-published field experiments where water was diverted to create an artificial low-flow disturbance have shown some influence of the diversion, although responses were quite limited (Miller et al. 2010; Walters 2011; Walters & Post 2011). Diversions of streamflow of up to 80 per cent in some instances resulted in few changes in macroinvertebrate community structure other than those related to contraction in habitat and resulting faunal densities (Miller et al. 2010; Walters 2011; Walters & Post 2011). Where detecting changes in macroinvertebrate communities has been unsuccessful for such dramatic flow decreases, managers are clearly faced with a serious challenge in establishing a defensible allocation limit. Trait-based analysis appears to offer a viable approach for water allocation planning purposes where macroinvertebrates are concerned. Changes were evident in trait prevalence in the NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series 28 above studies, including shifts in feeding groups where predatory strategies increased while filterers and gatherers decreased (Miller et al. 2010; Walters & Post 2011). Trait-based analysis has also recently been used to demonstrate an impact of water abstraction in New South Wales (Brooks et al. 2011), although these authors noted a similar study from the north-east of that state which failed to detect a difference (Chessman et al. 2011). Brooks et al. (2011) note the influence of trait combinations, rather than individual traits, on whether a given functional group of macroinvertebrates will be tolerant or susceptible to the impacts of abstraction (Brooks et al. 2011). The presence of reliable riffle and edge habitat in autumn and spring is correlated with high ecological value macroinvertebrate communities in the Mount Lofty Ranges (P McEvoy, personal communications 2011), reflecting recognition of the importance of near-perennial flow. Evidence presented in this study suggests that clearer guidance can be offered to river managers on duration impacts than those relating to flow magnitude. Cease-to-flow periods create step changes in conditions, for example resulting in the total loss in riffle habitat (Lake 2003). Linking changes in macroinvertebrate communities to the duration of cease-to-flow periods may offer more promise than thresholds based on reductions in magnitude. Given the dominance of intermittent streams under South Australian conditions, focusing on preserving the natural cease-to-flow characteristics of a given system may be the most critical goal ecologically. More broadly, for South Australian river managers this would mean ensuring a given system does not transition along the continuum of conditions from perennial to ephemeral. Transition to a more variable flow regime will at some critical point be predicted to lead to a loss of trait functional diversity (see case study 2), with implications for biodiversity (Hooper et al. 2005) as well as ecosystem resilience (Folke et al. 2004). Determining acceptable durations for any transitional thresholds will require dedicated research, as existing data are weighted towards sampling during flow periods and are not of sufficient precision or replication to undertake such an analysis. In the absence of further information, any development levels that lead to an increase in the duration or variability in the seasonal cease-to-flow, or cause a perennial flow regime for a given reach to transition to an intermittent regime would be expected to also produce transition within the macroinvertebrate community involving loss of functional diversity and resilience. Case study 2 presents a preliminary analysis of just such an event. From the low-flow ecology perspective this analysis highlights the significance of groundwater discharges. Under climatic conditions prevailing in South Australia, with its notable seasonal rainfall deficit, both the spatial distribution of refugia and characteristics of the streamflow regime relating to flow persistence and variability are largely driven by the influence of groundwater (Risby et al. 2003; Deane et al. 2008; Green & Stewart 2008; Banks 2010a). As the functional diversity of macroinvertebrate communities would appear to be largely driven by flow permanence and reliability, surface expression of groundwater is likely to be a major factor leading to differences in community composition. While it is ecologically critical to ensure streamflow variability does not increase dramatically as a result of surface or groundwater resource development, it may be technically challenging to achieve. The spatial distribution and discharge flux of groundwater springs is critical in determining the number, proximity and to some extent connectivity of refugia. These patterns are not easily predicted across much of South Australia owing to the prevailing fractured rock hydrogeological environment (Green & Stewart 2008; Banks 2010a). In the Mount Lofty Ranges, for example, while surface water development is relatively straightforward to model, the influence of groundwater development on the stream environment is more difficult to determine owing to the fractured rock environment. Interactions with groundwater present a difficult challenge for river managers and any additional uncertainty associated with increased climatic variability will add to the complexity NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series 29 of the task. Irrespective of management controls on development, managing stream ecology for a decrease in groundwater expression at the surface will likely be necessary. In terms of ecosystem function, major impacts can be anticipated on the extent and connectivity of permanent habitat. To ensure maximum trait diversity (and therefore ecological resilience) in macroinvertebrate communities is maintained, additional understanding is required on both physical and biological factors. 2.6 Conclusions and further work This case study has demonstrated that the prevalence of different trait states of aquatic macroinvertebrates and the overall functional diversity this represents is largely structured by characteristics of the flow regime, in particular cease-to-flow periods. At the river scale, the most highly-correlated characteristics are those relating to variability of the flow regime, in turn a reflection of the groundwater contribution. Short-term streamflow dynamics exert an influence on functional diversity that can only be predicted based on knowledge of the prevailing flow regime. For the ephemeral sites, low and cease-to-flow conditions are associated with reduced functional diversity and indicative trait states consistent with predictions for flow restriction. The lack of clear links between antecedent flow conditions and trait responses indicates these short-term fluctuations will require a higher degree of sampling effort and trait data resolution to identify any flowmagnitude-related thresholds of probable concern for South Australian systems. This work has demonstrated the usefulness of trait data as a means to link patterns of diversity (family abundance) to mechanistic processes (streamflow). Such analyses provide a more powerful means for managers to interpret what changes in the flow regime may mean for macroinvertebrates – or any biota for which trait data are available. Although results are consistent with previously published ecological theory, many of the more indicative trait states for drought-tolerant taxa such as body size, armouring and desiccation resistance of propagules (Poff 1997; Bonada et al. 2007; Diaz et al. 2008; Robson et al. 2011) were not available. Development of databases with this information will be critical if predictive models of macroinvertebrate communities are to be developed for use in climate change adaptation or resource development-planning purposes. Investment in the development of a trait database for all aquatic flora and fauna should be a national priority if predictive capacity to inform management decisions based on processes is seen as important. Many future uses for data of this nature present themselves, especially as additional trait data becomes available. A logical next step for research in this area on macroinvertebrate communities is to determine if any threshold of change exists where a small increase in the duration or variability of cease-to-flow periods results in a major change in the trait expression. In researching such a topic, the critical importance of groundwater must be considered. Without the ability to model changes in groundwater discharge to surface systems for a given development scenario, there may be limited value in understanding the biological implications. NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series 30 NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series 31 3. Changes in the macroinvertebrate community over a decadal period of drying (case study 2) 3.1 Summary From 1994 to 2007, Mosquito Creek in south-eastern South Australia changed from a perennially-flowing to intermittent stream, with steadily increasing annual cease-to-flow periods from 2001. Before autumn 2007 no streamflow was observed at the gauge for over 270 days. It is now considered to be a highly-ephemeral system. This drying event provided an ideal opportunity to investigate concurrent changes in the biological community. Macroinvertebrate samples collected in autumn and spring during this period were analysed for changes in taxonomy (family resolution) and biological traits. There was a marked shift in the community composition in the spring edge samples but a more gradual change in composition in autumn edge samples. Although the antecedent cease-to-flow period was correlated with compositional changes over time, trajectory of samples in multidimensional space was most clearly associated with changes in EC. Typical EC readings over the record were in the region of 2500 µS cm-1, but field sample data indicated a step change in conductivity to almost 6000 µS cm-1 occurred in 2005. A conductivity threshold of around 3000 µS cm-1 was evident in the macroinvertebrate dataset with samples collected at conductivities above this value generally having lower family richness. Flow was positively correlated with richness and may have contributed directly to decreased richness, but flow also had a highly significant impact on conductivity. Increased conductivity in turn appears to have significantly influenced community composition including reduced richness in the post-impact samples. Trait data was analysed using a multivariate approach and analysis of trait-based functional groups. Multivariate analysis suggests two major groupings of samples largely comprising pre (before 2002) and post (2002–07) impact periods. Indicative traits for the two sample groups are in accord with theoretical expectations. Three functional groups identified through classification of the project trait database were determined, each representing a distinct trait combination. Each identified functional group indicated a different flow response, with positive, negative and neutral relationship with flow evident. Evidence of declines in the proportion of total richness attributable to the rheophilic functional group concurrent with the reduction in flow was apparent. This relationship was used to determine the flow conditions likely to lead to a proportion of total richness consistent with pre-impact samples for the rheophilic trait group. A flow of 0.35 ML/d was identified as a minimum threshold likely to support this functional group. This flow corresponds to a first percentile pre-impact flow, but under the existing flow regime is exceeded only 30 per cent of the time. An increased number of functional groups present within a community are indicative of a more functionally-diverse community. The number of families present from within each functional group is a direct measure of the functional redundancy (i.e. resilience) of the community for the combination of traits represented by that functional group. This analysis suggests that optimising functional diversity and resilience through the use of trait groups may offer some potential as a basis for developing water allocation rules. This approach would enable decisions on environmental water provision based on functional aspects (rather than taxonomic aspects) of the community, potentially improving generality and predictive capability. NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series 32 3.2 Introduction Mosquito Creek was unique among the 12 sites examined in case study 1, as it showed an extreme drying trend in the hydrograph over the study period (Figure 12). In the mid-1990s, flow was perennial and most early macroinvertebrate sampling trips acquired edge and riffle samples in both spring and autumn. Annual baseflow began to decline around 1998, which was followed by gradual drying trend (Figure 12). In recent years this has resulted in increasing annual periods of cease-to-flow starting around summer 2000. The resulting changes to streamflow are obvious and the median flow from 1994 to 2001 of 4.1 ML/d was reduced from 2002 to 2007 to 0.1 ML/d – decreasing by a factor of 40. The cause of the drying is believed to be related to land use and presents a good opportunity to investigate the effects of a perennial to ephemeral transition in a flow regime on macroinvertebrate communities. 10000 1000 100 10 1 0.1 0.01 0.001 Mean daily flow (ML) Sample date Figure 12: Log transformed mean daily flow at A2390519, at Mosquito Creek near Struan, 1994–2011. Zero values are not defined on a log scale, hence cease-to-flow periods are indicated by breaks in the hydrograph. Macroinvertebrate sampling dates are marked as black triangles, with the final sample being collected in autumn 2007. 3.3 Methods 3.3.1 Taxonomic analysis For multivariate analyses involving taxonomic data, abundance data were prepared as follows. Raw data were firstly sub-sampled to remove families observed in less than 5 per cent of samples. The remaining data (n=80) were log(x + 1) transformed and then BrayCurtis (Bray & Curtis 1956) dissimilarities were calculated. Flow data was prepared as described in case study 1. NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series 33 Data was analysed using similar methods to case study 1 by creating a distance matrix of all samples and then investigating the composition between groups of samples that clustered together. An additional exploratory approach of plotting temporal trajectories in NMDS ordinations of the log(x+1) Bray Curtis dissimilarity matrices was also employed, with separate distances calculated for the sequential autumn and spring samples. Insufficient riffle data were available in the later record to enable comparisons of riffle fauna over the period of impact, thus data for this habitat were not examined further. 3.3.2 Traits-based analysis Two different methods were employed to examine the flow–trait relationship: a multivariate analysis analogous to the methods used in case study 1 (see Section 2.3) and a functional group analysis. For the latter, the species by traits dataset was classified using a Gower dissimilarity matrix and Ward’s minimum variance to create functional groups with a comparable range of trait states. The proportion of each group present in a given sample provides an indirect indication of the suitability of the habitat for the traits represented by the group, and a direct measure of the functional redundancy (resilience) for that particular suite of trait states (Laliberté et al. 2010). Group proportions for each sample were calculated as the simple ratio of the number of families within the sample from each group divided by the total sample richness. These were then plotted as time-series and against antecedent flow conditions to assess trends. For the rheophilic functional group, sample proportion as a function of antecedent flow was modelled to provide an indication of a minimum flow to support this functional group at the site. Binomial logistic regression was used to model this relationship using function ‘glm’ in R (R Development Core Team 2010). The binary-dependent variable was created where success (coded as binary 1) represented typical pre-impact proportions (>0.4 of total sample richness). Square root transformed mean daily antecedent flow was the independent variable. 3.4 Results 3.4.1 Taxonomic analysis Classification of all edge samples is shown in Figure 13. Three major clusters are evident at distance h = 7, and this height was used to group samples for additional analysis. Group 1 contains only four samples, all post-2004 and comprises two samples each collected in autumn and spring which cluster together. Group 2 clusters with group 3 at a height of around 0.8, and contains five spring samples, mostly from late in the record (2000–04), along with the 1997 spring sample. The remaining group is the largest, containing mostly autumn samples, and two spring samples from 1998 and 1999. NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series 34 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 A99 A97 S99 A01 A98 A05 S98 A07 A03 A02 S04 S02 S01 S03 S97 A00 A06 S00 S06 S05 0.2 A04 0.4 Height Figure 13: Classification of macroinvertebrate edge samples from Mosquito Creek, autumn 1997–autumn 2007. Codes indicate season and year (e.g. ‘A02’ refers to Mosquito Creek, 2002 edge habitat sampled in autumn). When the grouping pattern is shown in NMDS two-dimensional space, group 1 samples (shown in green) score consistently high axis 1 values, and are well separated across axis 2 (Figure 14). Environmental variables associated with cease-to-flow periods before sampling are significantly associated with axis 1 (p < 0.05). Spring samples from group 2 plot in a tight cluster with high axis 2 values, and slightly negative axis 1 scores. Axis 2 is significantly (p < 0.05) and positively correlated with season and with the magnitude of flow 90 days before sampling. NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series 35 5 is.spring S97ave.90 S00 S04 S98 S03 S01 S06 S99 habitatedge S05 0 A02 S02 NMDS 2 A98 A01 A99 A05 days.ctf A97 A00 zero.q.90 -5 A07 A06 A03 -10 A04 -5 0 5 10 NMDS 1 Figure 14: NMDS ordination of edge samples from Mosquito Creek. Colours indicate the groups shown in Figure 13. Environmental variables significant at 0.05 are shown: zero.q.90 = number of zero-flow days in the 90 days before sampling; days.ctf is the count of days since flow ceased; ave.90 is the average daily flow for the 90 days before sampling; is.spring is a logical variable indicating if the sample was collected in spring. Codes indicate season and last two digits of the year sampled (i.e. A05 = autumn 2005 sample; S05 is spring 2005). NMDS ordination and vector analysis of the seasonal samples analysed independently (figures 15 and 16) show different trajectories through time and different environmental associations. Autumn samples (Figure 15) over recent years indicate a directional trajectory towards lower axis 2 scores, and higher axis 1 scores. Significant (p < 0.05) environmental vector overlays suggest salinity and decreased flow duration are driving the recent trajectory. While 1996 samples were not collected, the early record seems to indicate a trajectory from higher antecedent flow conditions, based on the non-zero-flow 90 days before sampling vector. NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series 36 A00 flow.dur 5 A03 A04 A01 A98 A99 A97 0 NMDS Axis 2 A02 A95 A05 A06 EC -5 A07 Nnzq.90 A94 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 NMDS Axis 1 Figure 15: Ordination of Mosquito Creek autumn edge samples indicating trajectory over time, and with flow variables of statistical significance (p<0.05) shown: Nnzq.90 = median non-zero daily flow for 90 days before sampling. In contrast, spring samples (Figure 16) imply a sudden step change in population composition from 2004 to 2005 sampling events, and the vector analysis suggests this is attributable to an increase in salinity. When spot salinity samples are plotted over time (Figure 17), a clear increase in salinity coincides with the period between the 2005 autumn and spring samples. While ambient salinities up to this point in the record are around 2500 µS cm-1, the spring 2005 sample had a value of 4270 µS cm-1. Conductivity remains high for the following two samples, reaching a maximum of over 5700 µS cm-1, before returning to more typical value in autumn 2007 (Figure 17). NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series 37 6 S04 S97 S03 4 S01 S02 S00 0 S99 -2 NMDS Axis 2 2 z.q.12m S98 -4 EC S05 -6 S95 S06 S94 -10 -5 0 5 NMDS Axis 1 Figure 16: Spring edge macroinvertebrate community dissimilarity 1994–2006, with trajectory shown for sequential annual samples 1997–2006. Environmental variables shown were significant (p = 0.05) and represent the number of zero-flow days in the 12 months before sampling (z.q.12m) and sample electrical conductivity (EC). Electrical conductivity (microSiemens) 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 Nov-93 Aug-96 May-99 Feb-02 Nov-04 Aug-07 Figure 17: Field readings of electrical conductivity (EC) taken at time of macroinvertebrate sampling at Mosquito Creek, 1994–2007. The relationship between antecedent streamflow and EC was log-linear for all samples, strongly so for the spring samples. A regression of the natural log of the spring sample EC on square root transformed flow data was highly significant (p < 0.001) and explained almost 80 per cent of the variation in conductivity. The model, shown in Figure 18, was: NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series 38 8.0 7.5 log(EC) 8.5 Ln(EC) = 8.35 – 0.1213*SQRT(90day mean flow) 0 2 4 6 8 Mean 90 day antecedent flow (ML/d^0.5) Figure 18: Linear regression of log transformed spring conductivity at Mosquito Creek on square root transformed 90-day mean daily antecedent streamflow (ML/d). 3.4.2 Trait-based analysis Multivariate analysis Two trait-based groups are evident in the classification of the trait by abundance dissimilarity matrix (Figure 19). The right grouping is predominantly composed of samples collected after 2002 when the drying period had started. Eight of the 36 trait states were indicative of this division in samples, with five indicative for the left-hand group (group 1 in Table 8) and three states indicative of the right-hand group. For the left-hand grouping, indicative traits include drift dispersal, filter-feeding and gills, while the right-hand grouping has indicative trait states of semi-terrestrial life-history, moderate salinity tolerance and plastron respiration. NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series 39 Figure 19: Ward’s minimum variance classification of the trait-abundance matrix. Site codes are explained in Figure 14. Group 2 is on the right. NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series 40 ec.low 0.15 ffg.scrpr food.gen 0.10 ec.med.low disp.drift terr.month reprod.aq 0.05 univoltine resp.gill 0.00 food.plant matur.semi.ann terr.aqua food.det terr.quart multivoltine -0.05 NMDS2 ffg.gath food.pred terr.semi ffg.coll matur.quart disp.flight ec.med ffg.pred -0.10 zq.90 matur.ann reprod.ovo -0.15 resp.plast -0.20 reprod.terr -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 NMDS1 Figure 20: NMDS ordination of the trait prevalence data for Mosquito Creek, 1997–2007. Sample group 1 is on the right of the figure. zq.90 = zero-flow days in the 90 days before sampling. Table 8: Indicator species analysis trait states for the two sample groupings shown in figures 19 and 20. Trait Description Group Indicator value ffg.filt Filter-feeder 1 0.7802 food.gen Generalist feeding strategy 1 0.6948 terr.quart Terrestrial phase < 3 months 1 0.6582 disp.drift Dispersal via drift 1 0.6379 resp.gill Respires via gills 1 0.5791 terr.semi Semi-terrestrial 2 0.6506 resp.plast Respires via plastron 2 0.6083 ec.med Moderate salinity tolerance 2 0.5611 state NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series 41 Functional groups analysis Classification of the families by traits matrix indicated three functional groups (Figure 21). This represents groups of families with distinct combinations of trait states. The number of families classified within each functional group was not consistent, with group 1 representing only seven families, while groups 2 and 3 had 17 and 19 members respectively. Figure 21: Functional groups based on Ward’s clustering of the Gower dissimilarity trait by family matrix to form three functional groups. Binary trait states in each grouping were tabulated to determine trait characteristics (Table 9). Functional group 1 does not have any unique trait states, but is mostly comprised of gilled predators with limited dispersal capability; functional group 2 contains a combination of respiratory strategies, are of either predatory or collector-feeding group, reproduce largely via terrestrial eggs, are mostly multivoltine and disperse via a flight phase; and functional group 3 are all gilled (noting the adults of some beetle families are air-breathers, the assumption is made that these were larval phases), disperse mostly as part of the drift, are filterers, gatherers or collectors and reproduce via aquatic eggs. NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series 42 Table 9: Count of the trait states within each functional group Trait state Group 1 Group 2 Group 3 food.pred 6 7 3 food.det 1 4 9 food.plant 0 5 2 food.gen 0 1 5 resp.gill 7 0 19 resp.plast 0 16 0 terr.quart 4 1 3 terr.aqua 1 5 6 terr.month 1 7 8 terr.surf 0 1 0 terr.semi 0 1 1 terr.edge 0 3 0 ec.low 0 1 3 ec.med.low 2 5 6 ec.med 5 8 7 ec.high 0 3 3 univoltine 5 4 6 semivoltine 0 0 1 multivoltine 2 12 12 matur.month 0 1 1 matur.quart 2 8 6 matur.semi.ann 3 7 7 matur.ann 2 2 2 matur.sup.ann 0 0 3 disp.drift 0 2 8 disp.flight 2 5 3 reprod.terr 5 4 0 reprod.aq 2 12 13 reprod.ovo 0 0 6 ffg.pred 7 7 0 ffg.coll 0 6 8 ffg.scrpr 0 3 3 ffg.shdr 0 0 0 ffg.filt 0 0 4 ffg.gath 0 2 4 Functional group 1 families form a small proportion of the total sample across the sampling period reflecting the low number of total families classified within this category. While in the early record numbers vary following seasonal trends, samples from latter years were characterised by increasing variability (Figure 22). Proportional abundance dropped to zero in the autumn 2004 sample, which was the first sample collected following zero-flow periods in the 90 days before sampling. NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series 43 0.25 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.00 0.05 Proportion of Group 1 5 10 15 20 25 Sample number Figure 22: Proportion of functional group 1 in the edge data time-series, 1994–2007. Functional group 2 families also form an increasingly variable proportion of the total richness in the edge samples but have exhibited an increasing contribution to overall richness across the time-series (Figure 23). The proportion of functional group 3 families decreased in the most recent samples, falling to 20 per cent of total richness in the autumn 2006 sample (Figure 24). The increased variability in all proportions coincides with the samples collected during or after autumn 2003. No families from functional group 1 were recorded in the autumn 2004 sample, which was also extremely low for group 3. In contrast, this sample was the highest proportion in the time-series for functional group 2, which represented 75 per cent of total richness. While the creek was flowing on the day of sampling in autumn 2004, 60 of the previous 90 days were zero-flow, the first antecedent period of this type in the dataset. NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series 44 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.3 Proportion of Group 2 5 10 15 20 25 Sample number 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.3 Proportion of Group 3 0.6 Figure 23: Proportion of functional group 2 in the edge data time-series, 1994–2007 5 10 15 20 25 Sample number Figure 24: Proportion of functional group 3 in the edge data time-series, 1994–2007 NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series 45 When the proportion data is plotted against antecedent flow conditions differential flow responses are evident between the groups. The proportion of families from group 2 as a function of streamflow on the day of sampling indicates a negative flow preference (Figure 25), while group 3 had a positive response to flow (Figure 24). Observed patterns were consistent across the other antecedent periods (30 and 90 days). Group 1 proportions were evidently not affected by flow and were randomly distributed (data not shown). 0.7 Proportion Group 2 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0 1 2 3 4 5 Streamflow (sqrt(ML/d) Figure 25: The proportion of richness for edge samples for functional group 2 families as a function of streamflow on the day of sampling. The curve is a lowess smooth of the data. NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series 46 Proportion Group 3 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0 1 2 3 4 5 Streamflow (sqrt(ML/d) Figure 26: The proportion of richness for edge samples for functional group 3 families as a function of streamflow on the day of sampling. The curve is a lowess smooth of the data. Similar patterns were evident for the 30- and 90-day antecedent flow statistics. The flow response of functional group 3 families suggests a threshold response, where above a given flow threshold proportional richness remains consistently above 0.4. To gain an indication of the likely flow requirement to support a proportional richness of this level, the flow–proportion relationship was modelled using binomial logistic regression. The aim of the analysis was to objectively identify a minimum flow likely to provide conditions suitable for these families at the site. The predicted log odds for functional group 3 families to exceed a proportion of 0.4 of total families in a given sample was: Logit (group 3 proportion > 0.4) = -1.67 + 2.814*SQRT.30d.FLOW The model was statistically significant (p < 0.001, Chi square test) and explained around 57 per cent of the deviance. The model suggests a 50 per cent probability of observing a proportion of 0.4 of group 3 families would require an average daily flow for the antecedent 30 days of 0.35 ML/d. From 1994 to 2001, this represents the first percentile flow, while in post2001 this corresponds to the 69th flow percentile, indicating the magnitude of the flow decrease. 3.5 Discussion The hydrological environment at the Mosquito Creek site has undergone profound changes from the late-1990s to 2010 (Figure 12). Concurrent changes to the macroinvertebrate community are apparent, with spring sample dissimilarities particularly reflecting a probable NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series 47 step change in composition. A shift in dominant traits is evident between sampling groups that are characteristic of pre- and post-impact, and these are consistent with theoretical expectations (Townsend & Hildrew 1994; Williams 1996; Bonada et al. 2007). The nature of the change in the community is readily evident in the indicative traits for the pre- and postimpact sample groups, and in the trajectory in proportions of two of the three functional groups, which exhibit inverse flow preferences. The changes in flow regime at the site represent a shift from perennial to ephemeral streamflow and changes in the macroinvertebrate community in terms of taxonomy and functional diversity are clearly apparent. Different trait states have been shown to be more suited to different points on this flow continuum (Bonada et al. 2007) and the findings of this case study provide an indication of the nature of transition from one community to another. Positive and negative linear trends in the time-series for functional group proportions follow the declining streamflow trajectory, but non-linear dynamics are also apparent: Following the first enduring antecedent cease-to-flow period proportional representation of the three functional groups show sharp responses with group 2 proportions rising to 75 per cent and group 1 proportions falling to zero, the respective maxima and minima in the time-series for both groups. A step change in spring community composition is evident in the trajectory from 2004 to 2005, concurrent with a spike in EC readings. In terms of the dynamics of change, the relative recovery following the initial post cease-toflow sample is of interest. While proportions for group 2 continue to remain above pre-impact levels, they do rebound from the peak values. Group 1 proportions appear to return to the pre-impact proportions. As the duration of annual cease-to-flow periods at Mosquito Creek has transitioned from zero to over 200 days per year, it is to be expected that profound shifts in invertebrate and other aquatic fauna (and flora) would occur. Even though the most dramatic changes have actually occurred since macroinvertebrate monitoring ceased at the site, impacts are evident in the dataset examined in this study. This case study has demonstrated some benefit in assessing impacts based on combinations of traits (functional groups) rather than focusing entirely on how individual traits are expressed, or simply examining the responses of taxonomic community metrics. A further advantage of this approach is the ability to gauge the resilience of the system. Any decline in functional group proportion represents a loss of resilience in the macroinvertebrate community for this suite of traits (Laliberté et al. 2010). A functional group approach has previously been used (albeit unsuccessfully) to evaluate flow dependence in experimental flow manipulations (Miller et al. 2010) and also to demonstrate impacts on plant communities across a land use intensity gradient (Laliberté et al. 2010). Complex combinations of macroinvertebrate traits have been linked to impacts due to abstraction in Australia (Brooks et al. 2012), raising the possibility that a priori trait groupings may yield taxa indicative of impacts. An approach focusing on functional groups appears to offer scope for water resource planners to develop environmental flow recommendations based on transparent links to ecosystem processes for any biotic groups for which traits are available. As an example of how these links could be made, trait analysis in this study allowed for predictions of a flow threshold that would provide a 50 per cent probability of group 3 families achieving pre-impact proportions in the community. The flow threshold occurred over the pre-impact period on 99 per cent of days and would have been meaningless before impact. The functional relationship, however, suggests this ecosystem property could possibly have been maintained at much lower streamflow volumes than were observed historically. This information could NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series 48 have been used to establish a maximum extraction limit. The advantage of this approach is the transparent link to process and the ease that success or otherwise could be determined. As it now represents a flow exceeded on only 30 per cent of days over recent times, it seems unlikely it could be achieved. Changes in the flow regime have predictably resulted in major concurrent changes to water quality, exemplified by the strong influence of declining streamflow on observed EC during spring. The decrease in functional group 3 families is clearly associated with streamflow conditions, but major shifts in macroinvertebrate community composition appear to be associated with the increase in EC according to sample trajectory in Figure 16. When considering the importance of conductivity it should be borne in mind that the taxonomic data contained almost twice the number of families than the trait data, and may provide a better indication of the level of impacts. Although many macroinvertebrate families found in South Australia are adapted to high salinity (McEvoy & Goonan 2003), there is a general negative correlation with richness. Figure 27 was generated using the entire South Australian AusRivAS dataset employed in this study, and implies something of a step change in family-level richness as a function of increasing conductivity at levels above 3000 µS cm-1 – this threshold was exceeded in autumn and spring 2005 when ambient conductivities of around 3000 µS cm-1 spiked to almost twice this value before returning to lower levels in 2007. In response, family richness of the 2005 and 2006 spring samples were 25 and 19 respectively, compared with a mean of 34 before these. Species-level data indicates a greater loss of richness where the 2005–06 sample mean is 35.5, compared with a mean of 57 for the previous record. The magnitude of the drought at the site in Mosquito Creek has continued to increase since the final macroinvertebrate sample was collected in 2007, and the flow regime now appears essentially ephemeral. Even if the question of how to restore some streamflow could be addressed, restoration of the functional group within the system would rely on a source of colonists being within dispersal distance. Given the group favours drift dispersal this may not be likely to occur. Nonetheless it is an interesting situation and a community in transition in response to such a drastic change in flow regime presented a rare research opportunity. Any restoration attempts will present even greater opportunities to study the dynamics of a recovery phase. NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series 49 35 30 edge.fam.rich 25 20 15 10 6 7 8 9 10 log(ec) Figure 27: Family richness of South Australian edge samples (n=289) as a function of electrical conductivity (EC) measured in the field on the day of sampling. The fitted curve is a lowess smooth of the data which suggests a slight linear increase in richness up to a value of around natural log 7 (1000 EC). After this point richness declines in a linear manner according to the lowess smoother, although there is some evidence for a step change at ln(8), or ~3000 EC. It is perhaps unfortunate that macroinvertebrate sampling ended when it did in the present study, as the transition to a more drought-tolerant invertebrate fauna was likely incomplete. With the benefit of hindsight, this period presented a rare opportunity to gather data that could be used to investigate potential early warning indicators of change. It is worth noting this may still be possible with available data – to best interpret the pattern in community shift with existing data, the use of species-level information is warranted, but this was not attempted in this analysis. Genus or species-level data should more clearly indicate changes in community composition through an indicator species approach, and may also provide improved insights into the nature of any threshold response. However, trait information for Australian macroinvertebrate species and genera is presently limited. 3.6 Conclusions and further work This case study has provided an example of the usefulness of trait databases to enable the objective grouping of macroinvertebrate taxa at family level into flow-response groups. It has also illustrated one way this information can be used to support environmental flow decisions. Other than the fairly predictable change in community dynamics which might be expected when the median streamflow is reduced by a factor of 40, the analysis suggests two things of general interest. Firstly, a possible threshold response in proportional representation was evident in the rheophilic trait group and modelling suggests the flow-dependent functional group may have required only a modest flow volume to remain at pre-impact levels. Secondly, the impacts of salinity increase were driven by the change in streamflow, but appear to have NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series 50 resulted in a step change impact on the community as a whole, as point conductivity readings exceeded 5000 µS cm-1. The rare nature of the documented loss of streamflow, such as the drying event in this study, warrants increased analytical effort with the existing trait database and additional effort in seeking datasets from other agencies or researchers collected over the drying period. Other biological data such as fish population dynamics may exist, and would allow for some investigation of trophic effects associated with decreases in flow duration and magnitude. Since macroinvertebrate sampling ended at Mosquito Creek, cease-to-flow periods have further increased. It is likely that extant taxa at the site are more characteristic of semi-arid, generalist South Australian macroinvertebrate taxa. Assuming any aquatic environment persists, the current state of the macroinvertebrate community if re-sampled would indicate if additional shifts in community composition have occurred under the enduring ephemeral conditions. This would also establish baseline conditions to measure any possible improvement in condition should flow be returned through management intervention or through changes in climatic conditions. Whether the impact on the flow regime observed at the gauging station is common to the entire Mosquito Creek drainage network is unknown, but being a large catchment, it is likely that some upper catchment flow refugia may persist. This may present opportunities to examine meta-population dynamics at the site, assuming flow will at some point return towards a more perennial flow. Hence, a final point of note in this case study is the potential for future investigation of the reversal in trajectory should a return to conditions more indicative of the early flow record eventuate. NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series 51 4. Preliminary analysis of the flow – recruitment response of mountain galaxias in the Marne River, South Australia (case study 3) 4.1 Summary Mountain galaxias (Galaxias olidus) are a species with a known requirement for flow to complete their life cycle. Analysis of adult and young of the year (YOY) population monitoring data from autumn and flow data from the Marne River from 2002 to 2010 suggests a positive linear relationship between May to December streamflow statistics and total population abundance and the abundance of YOY. Linear regression of mountain galaxias recruitment and flow volume was used to model recruitment success over 32 years (1975–2006) for two flow scenarios: the gauged record (representative of current development) and a modelled no-development scenario. Despite the linear nature of the model, changes to predicted populations under the two scenarios were non-linear, suggesting impacts on flow resulting from development are not consistent across years. The mean ratio of recruitment strength under current development to no-development scenarios was 65 per cent, and the ratio varied from 21 to 122 per cent. The greatest observed impacts from water resource development seemed to occur during low to moderate flow years, rather than very low rainfall and runoff years, which tended to have poor recruitment under both scenarios. Recruitment success classes based on observed performance suggest the net effect of current development appears to be a four-fold increase in the frequency of years where poor recruitment results, and a decrease in the number of good years by around 50 per cent. Existing development also appears to create sequential years of poor recruitment, not observed under the no-development scenario. Under the current-development scenario modelling, consecutive failed seasons occurred on two occasions. There was evidence in the data of a non-linear relationship (power function) between total population and flow which gave a superior fit to the data than the model adopted. However, this was considered less defensible for extrapolation to conditions outside those observed, as biological reality would suggest an upper threshold to the response would occur. Hence although uncertainties exist around extrapolating the observed linear relationship, it is perhaps more likely to be conservative, rather than an over-prediction, based on observed data. Because of this, changes in recruitment patterns over the modelling period may be greater than indicated. More sophisticated modelling techniques and the incorporation of observation errors will be in future applied to this dataset, which continues to be collected. For a highly flow-dependent, short-lived species (at this site few individuals appear to reach three years of age) such as mountain galaxias, multiple failed years increases the probability of local extinction. Of additional concern, more recent monitoring data (not able to be included in this study) suggests the last three years have resulted in poor recruitment (Hammer, unpublished data). Under current development, survivorship also appears to be poor at the site, and this is likely due to a combination of the loss of low flows and factors such as the infilling of refuge pools. The Marne River site provides a high-value refuge for Galaxias olidus, as there exists a natural barrier to the upstream migration of introduced predators (in NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series 52 particular redfin and trout). Restoration of the low flows in the catchment would improve the probability of the species persisting. The correlation of autumn mountain galaxias fish census data and streamflow from May to December of the previous year supports the reliance of the species on flow to successfully breed and persist as a population. Population monitoring data suggests that while some recruitment is occurring most years, the limited number of fish surviving to age classes beyond 1+ restricts the abundance of the population. This clearly increases the level of risk the populations is exposed to. Despite consistently low numbers of observed individuals (even zero on some occasions), the population currently persists (Hammer, personal communication). 4.2 Introduction Galaxias olidus is a species with a known life-history requirement for flowing water (a summary of the relevant literature is presented in McNeil & Hammer 2007). The species has been observed in reproductive condition from autumn through to spring and is known to lay eggs in riffles (McNeil & Hammer 2007), and as such can be considered to have an obligate requirement for flowing water. The species is well-suited as an indicator taxa for water resource management purposes, being widespread (though many populations are isolated – Hammer 2007) and having a wellestablished causal dependence on flow. In the development of environmental water requirements in the Mount Lofty Ranges, the species was one of two rheophilic fish species used to assess the various potential allocation policies (Vanlaarhoven & van der Wielen 2009). The Marne River catchment is located around 80 km north-east of Adelaide. The river rises in the eastern Mount Lofty Ranges, discharging to the River Murray about 30 km downstream of the township of Swan Reach. The catchment has been defined as having two broad zones, referred to in the report of an Environmental Flows Technical Panel for the Marne River (MREFTP 2003) as the Hills and Plains zones. The two zones are separated by the Marne Gorge, where the streamflow-gauging station used in this report is located. The impacts of surface water development in the form of farm dam storages in the higher rainfall headwater in the Mount Lofty Ranges were assessed in 2002 (Savadamuthu 2002). Key findings from this study were that impacts depended on the depth of rainfall received and were highest in dry years, with the most significant impacts on zero-flow durations and low flows (Savadamuthu 2002; MREFTP 2003). This case study uses data collected by Dr Michael Hammer for the South Australian MDB NRM Board, and streamflow data collected by the South Australian Government at streamflow gauge A4260605 on the Marne River near the Marne River gorge. 4.3 Methods 4.3.1 Ecological and hydrological data Fish length data from annual population monitoring conducted in autumn from 2002 to 2010 at three sites in the Marne River were obtained. Monitoring methods included fyke netting and electro-fishing (for additional detail on sampling methods see Hammer 2007). Preliminary population models have been developed for mountain galaxias in the eastern Mount Lofty Ranges (MLR; e.g. Hammer 2007), allowing reasonable length–age transformations, from NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series 53 which counts of YOY could be estimated from population data. Counts of population and YOY from the three sites were pooled to provide a catchment-wide estimate of the population and the number of young surviving to autumn (assuming a spring emergence). A number of flow statistics were generated using flow data from streamflow gauge A4260605 that incorporated both duration and magnitude of flows from 1 May to 31 December of the previous year. Inspection of cross-section and long-section survey data during site installation indicated a riffle flow at the nearby gravel bed upstream of the site should occur at mean daily flows exceeding 0.052 m3s-1. This threshold was used to sum both the total number of days during the period of interest with riffle wetting flows, and the longest duration of an individual riffle inundating flow event. Magnitude-based metrics included the mean and median daily flows, and non-zero daily flows for the study period. 4.3.2 Ecological and hydrological modelling Exploratory data analysis indicated a linear relationship between a number of the flow statistics and the fish census data, for YOY and for the total population abundance. Mean daily streamflow provided a very good (exponential) fit to total fish abundance (data not presented); however, while it provided a good statistical fit, the exponential model was considered an unreliable method to estimate fish populations outside the observed range. This, combined with low survivorship in the study reaches, led to the decision to adopt the linear model of YOY (age class 0+) fish for this study. Hence, YOY were modelled as a simple linear regression of streamflow using the statistical application R (R Core Development Team 2011). Model diagnostics involved inspection of the residuals and testing for normality. No evidence of temporal autocorrelation was evident in model residuals, and these were not significantly different from normal (Shapiro-Wilk test W = 0.9, p = 0.45). Gauged and modelled streamflow data were available from 1975 to 2006, and this was selected as a period to investigate long-term recruitment variability and population persistence. Gauged data constituted records from two sites: station A4260529 with flow data from January 1975 to March 2006; and station A4260605 with flow data from August 2001 to December 2010. (The latter station replaced the former a short distance downstream at a site offering superior hydrometric potential.) As the sites were operated concurrently for a time, the current gauged record could be extended back to the start of the modelled period according to: mean daily flow at A4260605 = mean daily flow at A4260529 * 1.1076 (R2 = 0.98) Two other nearby streamflow gauges were used to infill periods where station A4260529 was out of service. From 1989 to 1992, station A5040512 was selected as the optimal station for infill owing to its close match to station A4260605 during cease-to-flow periods (adjustment factor 3.40, R2 = 0.84). Several short (~30 day) periods of missing data from the earlier gauging station were infilled using the same site, or closest match available, using the same linear interpolation technique. Modelled data included both current and no-development scenarios (the current model with all farm dam storages removed; see Savadamuthu 2002 for details on model development). The difference between the two modelled scenarios was obtained at a daily time step and the difference was added to the gauged data record as a means to estimate the streamflow that would have been observed if no development were present. The relevant streamflow statistics were calculated on the current and no-development scenarios time-series at an annual time step, and used to generate estimates of the YOY for NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series 54 mountain galaxias at the site. Differences between the two time-series of annual estimates of YOY numbers in autumn were analysed to determine major differences. 4.4. Results 4.4.1 Fish census data as a function of observed flow A summary of the ecohydrological data used in this analysis is presented in Table 10. YOY and adult fish were observed every year except 2009, when no fish were observed (Table 10). Duration and magnitude statistics were positively correlated with fish population abundance and recruitment, and fish and flow were intra-correlated. A positive linear association was evident between YOY and the total number of fish sampled. The YOY as a proportion of the observed total fish varies from 13 to 87 per cent, with a mean of 40 per cent. Despite this strongly linear correlation within a given fish census, no relationship was evident between consecutive year censes of adults (> 0+ fish) and the YOY the following year, nor was there any apparent influence of flow on this relationship. Table 10: Selected annual streamflow summary statistics (2002–08) and autumn fish census data* (2002–10) for the Marne River catchment Year Total YOY Duration max.dur mean nz.mean nz.med median fish 2002 71 14 84 77 0.229 0.316 0.041 0.008 2003 15 2 16 13 0.012 0.025 0.016 0.000 2004 72 27 92 80 0.305 0.451 0.084 0.021 2005 166 54 70 70 0.394 0.677 0.077 0.004 2006 184 87 129 114 0.431 0.569 0.138 0.098 2007 23 12 4 4 0.004 0.016 0.004 0.000 2008 23 20 6 3 0.010 0.020 0.014 0.001 2009 0 0 - - - - - - 2010 14 7 - - - - - - * Abbreviations denote the following: duration = the duration in days of riffle flow (>=0.052 m3s-1) for the preceding flow season 1 May to 31 December max.durr = the duration in days of the longest continuous period where riffle flow occurred mean = the mean daily flow in m3s-1 1 May to 31 December in the preceding flow season nz.mean = the mean daily flow in m3s-1 for non-zero-flow days nz.median = the median daily flow from 1 May to 31 December calculated on days where flow occurred (i.e. nonzero-flow days) median = the overall median flow from 1 May to 31 December Flow statistics for both flow duration and magnitude were all more or less monotonic, if not linear, predictors of autumn total population and YOY fish counts. Magnitude and durations statistics were highly inter-correlated, with durations generally less reliable predictors of fish populations (e.g. higher and heterogeneous variance) than magnitudes. YOY were modelled as a linear function of the non-zero median flow during the previous year (Figure 28) according to the equation: YOY = nz flow * 567.5 (F = 67.3 on 6 d.f. r2 = 0.90, p < 0.001) NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series 55 80 60 40 0 20 Young of the year 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10 0.12 0.14 Non-zero median flow (cumecs) Figure 28: Linear regression model of Marne River mountain galaxias YOY in autumn as a function of non-zero median flow. The least squares fit to the data and 95 per cent confidence intervals are shown. 4.4.2 Comparison of modelled flow regimes Across the entire modelling period, flow occurred on around 61 and 48 per cent of days in the no-development and current-development scenarios respectively. This equates to average seasonal no-flow periods of around 150 days for the no-development scenario, and 200 days under current conditions. Figure 29 shows the mean daily non-zero streamflow over the entire modelled period, ranked in order of decreasing flow volume (i.e. flow duration curve). The plotting positions assigned to both time-series are the non-zero-flow percentiles for the no-development scenario to allow comparison. The number of days on which flow occurred and the flow magnitude for given exceedence percentile are decreased under current-development levels. Flows above the 10th exceedence percentile non-zero-flow exhibit no discernible difference when presented this way. NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series 56 Figure 29: Modelled no-development and current development ranked daily flows for exceedence percentile indicated (note percentiles calculated on no-development scenario and hence are not applicable to the current flow). 4.2.3 Modelled YOY abundance Figure 30 shows annual estimates of YOY abundances in autumn from 1975 to 2006 based on the linear regression presented above. Predicted YOY numbers in all but three of the 32 years in the modelled record are higher under the no-development scenario than under current-development levels. During the early part of the record, the two predictions are quite similar, but consistently low predictions indicated in the current-development scenario from 1991 to 2002 are not apparent in the no-development scenario time-series. Categories of recruitment success based on observed data are used in Figure 31 to compare the number of good, moderate and poor years (>50; 10–50 and <10 YOY respectively). Under the no-development scenario, it is estimated that good recruitment would occur in better than 50 per cent of years, and poor recruitment would occur in only 6 per cent of years (Figure 31). Under modelled current development, poor recruitment is estimated to occur in 25 per cent of years, with good recruitment in 34 per cent of years. Poor recruitment occurs in consecutive years on two occasions in the current scenario, but does not occur in the no-development scenario. Actual data indicate from 2002 to 2010 (n=9) three poor, and two good recruitment years have been observed. There is a general tendency for relatively high numbers of YOY to be found in both timeseries in Figure 31, while the number of low predictions is increased in the currentdevelopment scenario. In comparison with the no-development scenario, the frequency of poor recruitment years is increased by a factor of four under the current scenario (Figure 31). The frequency of years where moderate recruitment success occurs was similar for the two scenarios, while the frequency of good recruitment years was reduced by 50 per cent. The modelling suggests that good mountain galaxias recruitment as suggested by the typical sampling effort currently employed in population monitoring would have occurred at a frequency greater than 1 in 2 under a no-development scenario. The ratio of the two YOY predictions for a given year provides a means to compare the modelled differences due to development pressures. The average proportion of current population predictions is 65 per cent of no-development predictions, and this value varies from 21 to 122 per cent. Predictions for the current scenario are within ±20 per cent of the no- NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series 57 250 development scenario on eight occasions over the modelling period. There is considerable variation over the record, and no consistent pattern is apparent in the ratio. 150 100 0 50 Predicted young of the year 200 no devt current 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 year Modelled frequency Figure 30: Predicted mountain galaxias YOY numbers in three sites for the Marne River under current and no-development scenarios, 1975–2006. 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 poor ( < 10) moderate (10 - 50) good (> 50) Number of juveniles in autumn Current development No development Figure 31: Recruitment success of mountain galaxias for 32 years under scenarios of current water resource development and modelled no-development. NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series 58 4.5 Discussion The correlation between flow and the size of the mountain galaxias population in the upstream reaches of the Marne River has been observed and reported previously, with concerns raised about the effects of recent drought conditions coupled with the capture of streamflow in farm dams for a number of years (Hammer 2007, 2009). A feature of the Marne River population is the poor survivorship in upstream pool locations, where data in this study were obtained from. Extant populations are present in only small numbers and over the observation period (2002–11). It is apparent that while some recruitment appears to occur in most years, good recruitment events boost population numbers to enable persistence of the population over ensuring poor years (Hammer 2009). The incidence of good recruitment years is of course of limited benefit if populations are unable to disperse to reliable refugia in other areas of the catchment. Data not presented in this study suggests widespread dispersal of mountain galaxias occurred only once during the fish population monitoring period. Hammer (2009) indicates that refuge pools under current-development levels may no longer be capable of supporting viable populations. The extrapolation of the observed linear relationship produces varying, but often considerable differences in predicted YOY abundance. Modelling undertaken in this case study suggests major impacts on the frequency of poor recruitment years, which were predicted to increase by a factor of four. Also of note in comparing the two modelled YOY abundance predictions is the occurrence on two occasions in the current-development record of poor recruitment on consecutive years. The number of years where moderate numbers of YOY are predicted do not vary greatly between the two scenarios, but the effects of abstraction were also evident in the frequency of good recruitment years, which are reduced in frequency by around 50 per cent. To determine the likely implications on population dynamics of these shifts in recruitment success the longevity of the species requires consideration. Length data for mountain galaxias from upper Marne River sites over recent years suggests poor survivorship, although as with YOY fish, the proportion of fish surviving to higher age classes increases with flow duration and volume. Numbers of fish surviving to age classes older than 1+ have been very low since 2005. Data presented in MREFTP (2003) indicated that one site where data was gathered for this study (‘Vigars’) featured only large individuals, suggesting that while recruitment had not occurred in the most recent year, survivorship was reasonable (MREFTP 2003). More recent data indicating poor survivorship at the site suggests a decline in habitat suitability has occurred from 2002 to 2010 at the upstream sampling sites. Moreover, the negative effects of water abstraction on the mountain galaxias population over more recent dry years (post-2006) are likely to have been worse than indicated in the modelling study. Given the short lifespan of mountain galaxias and recent poor survivorship in the upper Marne River, populations are now likely to rely on years with high recruitment to create some resilience in the population to buffer poor survivorship across low recruitment periods, and to support system-wide dispersal. An increase in the number of years with limited recruitment increases risks to the population in the periods between good recruitment and dispersal opportunities. The modelling in this case study suggests the removal of low flows as a result of water development may be particularly critical for mountain galaxias in the upper Marne River. The hydrological impacts of farm dam development in the catchment have been well-reported (Savadamuthu 2002’ MREFTP 2003). Across all years in the study conducted by Savadamuthu (2002), the main impacts were on early-season runoff intercepted as farm dams filled, and on late-season flows as irrigation pumping began and water diversion to dams again interrupted streamflow. The net result of these impacts is a shortening of flow NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series 59 duration, with the extent of decrease greatest in drier years. The predicted impacts for fish recruitment are evident in Figure 30, where the greatest deviation from the no-development prediction occurs in the early 1990s, especially from 1994 to 1997 when annual rainfall at Keyneton in the upper catchment averaged below 400 mm compared with a mean for the modelling period of 530 mm. In terms of the biology of mountain galaxias, the results of this alteration to hydrology are a shortened duration of riffle flow for recruitment, and reduced water quality over the summer to autumn cease-to-flow period as freshening flows from storm events are intercepted by farm dams. Other than predation by trout and redfin (a major risk to the population regionally; McNeil & Hammer 2009), loss of habitat from drought and water abstraction are the main risks to the upper Marne River mountain galaxias population. Hydrological issues aside, the present absence of predatory exotic species in the catchment means the site presents ideal refuge habitat. Moreover the population has proven extremely resilient, given very poor survivorship in recent times. If the flow regime could be improved through restoring low-flow volumes to maintain refuge pools, there is a good probability the population will persist through drier climatic conditions in future. The regularly low numbers of mature adult mountain galaxias observed in population monitoring suggests the upper Marne River population is highly dependent on the survival of a small number of mature fish, possibly at an unknown (thus unsampled) refuge location. This warrants further investigation to determine the main factors preventing improved survivorship. Monitoring flow and water quality variations at multiple refugia within the catchment will provide important supporting information to determine spatial factors that affect survivorship and population persistence. While simplistic, the modelling approach employed in this study provides some objective estimates of the level of impact of water development on mountain galaxias in the upper Marne River. From a hydrological perspective, it is not conclusively known how runoff patterns in the Marne River would be affected if no development was present. Nor is it known exactly what streamflow regimes would have been experienced by biota over evolutionary time-scales in the region before clearance. There is no clear solution to what constitutes an optimal regime to manage for, but the restoration of low flow is clearly a critical factor in the Marne River. NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series 60 5. Biological monitoring of South Australian aquatic biota 5.1 Current programs The monitoring of aquatic ecological biota in South Australia is currently undertaken for two main purposes: 1. The EPA monitors aquatic macroinvertebrates to provide the necessary information to assess the ecological condition of rivers at a regional scale. 2. NRM boards monitor biota to assess the effectiveness of water allocation and management plans at key sites across their regions. Environment Protection Authority macroinvertebrate monitoring program The EPA recently reviewed its Ambient Water Quality monitoring program that much of the AusRivAS data used in the case studies was collected under. The review showed a number of inadequacies in this approach to providing information necessary to assess the ecological condition of rivers as required under state legislation. Following this review, the EPA has implemented high-intensity regional-based programs, with a fixed site as well as random site component, with the aim of characterising stream condition within a region. Regions are sampled on a rolling basis with frequency of sampling dependent on perceived environmental risk. NRM board monitoring programs Under state legislation, NRM boards are required to produce a number of management plans identifying how their natural resources will be managed. In the water resources realm, the highest level of management is assigned to resources at most risk and this is achieved by prescribing a resource, after all extractive uses are licensed. The administration of the prescribed resource is set out under a water allocation plan (WAP). For a given region the WAP is developed by estimating the extent of the sustainable resource, determining the existing level of use, and comparing these values. The size of the resource, existing use pressure and the means by which individual shares of the resource will be allocated are set out in the WAP. Gaps in monitoring effort There is currently, and has never been, a state-based data collection program for biological responses to flow or groundwater level. This represents a significant gap, given the importance of providing water for the environment in WAPs. The following sections discuss issues relating to the monitoring of macroinvertebrate, fish and streamflow. Macroinvertebrate sampling Fortunately for contemporary natural resource managers, when site selection was made for the Ambient Water Quality Program macroinvertebrate under AusRivAS sampling protocols, sampling sites were often co-located with state streamflow gauges. Although this program has now changed focus to better address agency core business (see above), the data NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series 61 collected from 1994 to 2007 represents a considerable resource for investigations of the current nature. This data was critical in verifying theorised hydro-ecological responses that underpin draft WAPs in the Mount Lofty Ranges (see Vanlaarhoven & van der Wielen 2009). The revised EPA macroinvertebrate sampling program will provide more detailed data for a region, with the trade-off that time-series data will have gap years when no information will be available. Clearly data of this nature is suited to answering different questions to time-series data collected at only one site per region – it is certainly better suited to the reporting needs of the EPA. However this should be recognised as not being focused on flow-related ecology other than regional-scale state of the environment reporting. This gap needs targeted investment if water allocation and future climate change adaptation plans are grounded in good ecological understanding. The value of the existing AusRivAS site time-series data has in no way been fully recognised through this initial flow-response study. Much more detailed investigation of the data is possible and warranted. The main gaps that seem to present in macroinvertebrate sampling relate to: determining the trajectories of change within systems across seasonal and supraseasonal drought and then through recovery phases where streamflow volumes increase patterns of meta-population dynamics that support higher value macroinvertebrate communities – the latter question should in part be addressed by the new protocols. The existing macroinvertebrate dataset has and will continue to be valuable if only because of the longevity of the sampling and the co-location of sites with streamflow gauges. Ideally, targeted high spatial intensity regional programs as well as long-term sites collecting data to indicate trajectory over time would exist to help with analyses of changes such as those observed in Mosquito Creek (case study 2). It could be possible that regional boards have their own macroinvertebrate sampling programs achieving this. Some savings in macroinvertebrate sorting can be made if targeted taxa are the focal point. There is potential to develop suitable indices based on the ratios of a small number of flow-dependent traits with existing data, and monitor these to demonstrate flow-based ecological trajectories. Fish The Marne River mountain galaxias data were invaluable in this study, and given the flow dependence of this species, focusing on sites where populations are present (especially where predatory species are absent) is clearly of value. Understanding the flow–ecology relationships of rheophilic species from a quantitative perspective is only beginning, but has much promise to create simple, flow-based rules for managers to implement. The collection of annual fish population monitoring data for any species with a flow dependence places managers in a much better position to assess flow-related impacts than in the past. Length data that can be matched to an understanding of the length–age class relationship (see Hammer 2009) are particularly valuable. As with any flow-related monitoring strategy, good measures of flow at the site of interest and between key refugia are important questions most suited to a research-based approach. Streamflow The issue of poor streamflow precision at low flows was apparent in preparing flow data for analysis in this study. The question of when a cease-to-flow started and ended may seem straightforward, but in reality is not so easy to achieve at a streamflow gauge – especially at sites where ecological assets are located. This question is also complicated by groundwater NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series 62 inflows, which are spatially unpredictable, with a reach a few hundred metres upstream or downstream of a gauge possibly not reflecting the hydrological environment at that site, especially during early and late season baseflow. Future monitoring effort for biological sampling should look to ensure some measure of flow as close as possible to the site of interest is undertaken, and ideally field verification of flow or no-flow conditions should be undertaken as often as possible during the start and end of seasonal flows NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series 63 Appendix 1: Table of macroinvertebrate traits Table 11: Traits and trait states used in analysis. Trait* Trait states abbreviation resp.gill Respiration Duration of terrestrial phase of life-history Electrical conductivity (EC) tolerance class Voltinism Time to maturity Dispersal Method of reproduction Description Gills resp.pneu Pneumostome resp.plast Plastron, spiracle terr.quart Less than 3 months terr.aqua Obligate aquatic taxa terr.month Less than 4 weeks terr.surf Surface aquatic terr.semi Semi-terrestrial terr.edge Edge dwelling ec.low Low (< 7mS/cm) ec.med.low Moderate ( 7 – 20 mS/cm) ec.med Moderately high (20-50 mS/cm) ec.high Highly tolerant (>50mS/cm) univoltine Single generation per year semivoltine < one generation per year multivoltine > one generation per year matur.month < 4 weeks matur.quart 4 – 12 weeks matur.semi.ann 3 – 6 months matur.ann 12 months matur.sup.ann > 12 months disp.drift Present in the drift disp.flight Has a flight dispersal life-history phase reprod.terr Reproduces via terrestrial eggs reprod.aq Aquatic eggs reprod.ovo Ovoviviparous ffg.pred Predatory ffg.coll Collector Functional feeding ffg.scrpr Scraper group* ffg.shdr Shredder ffg.filt Filterer ffg.gath Gatherer * Functional feeding group assignments were provided by Peter Goonan of the South Australian EPA. All other traits were obtained from Schafer et al. (2011). NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series 64 Appendix 2: Trait group sample membership Table 12: Assignment of macroinvertebrate samples to trait groups as discussed in Section 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Bremer, S, 1997 Bremer, A, 1998 Bremer, S, 1998 Bremer, A, 2000 Bremer, A, 2005 Finniss, A, 1995 Finniss, S, 1999 Bremer, S, 1999 Cooper, A, 2004 Bremer, A, 2001 Bremer, S, 2003 First, A, 2000 Finniss, A, 2006 Hill, S, 1999 Bremer, S, 2000 First, A, 1994 Bremer, S, 2001 Bremer, A, 2004 Hindmarsh, A, 1995 Hindmarsh, S, 1995 Hill, S, 2001 Cooper, A, 1999 First, S, 1998 Bremer, A, 2002 Bremer, S, 2005 Hindmarsh, S, 1997 Hindmarsh, A, 1997 Light, A, 1994 Cooper, A, 2000 First, A, 1999 Bremer, A, 2003 Bremer, A, 2006 Hindmarsh, A, 1998 Hindmarsh, A, 2000 Light, S, 1994 Finniss, A, 1994 First, S, 2001 Cooper, A, 1995 First, S, 2005 Hindmarsh, A, 2001 Hindmarsh, A, 2002 Light, A, 1995 Finniss, S, 1994 First, A, 2003 Cooper, S, 1995 Hill, S, 1998 Hindmarsh, A, 2003 Hindmarsh, A, 2004 Light, A, 1997 Finniss, A, 2004 First, S, 2004 Cooper, A, 1998 Hill, S, 2000 Hindmarsh, A, 2007 Hindmarsh, A, 2005 Light, S, 1997 First, S, 1994 Hill, S, 2004 Cooper, S, 1998 Light, S, 1995 Rocky, A, 1995 Hindmarsh, S, 2005 Light, A, 1998 First, A, 1995 Hindmarsh, A, 1994 Cooper, S, 2000 Light, A, 2001 Rocky, A, 1997 Hindmarsh, A, 2006 Light, S, 1998 First, S, 1995 Hindmarsh, S, 1994 Cooper, A, 2001 Rocky, A, 1994 Rocky, A, 2000 Mosquito, A, 1997 Light, A, 1999 First, S, 1997 Torrens, S, 1994 Cooper, A, 2003 Rocky, S, 1995 Rocky, A, 2001 Mosquito, A, 1999 Light, S, 1999 First, S, 1999 Torrens, S, 1997 Cooper, A, 2006 Rocky, S, 1998 Rocky, A, 2002 Mosquito, A, 2000 Light, A, 2000 First, S, 2000 Torrens, S, 1998 Cooper, A, 2007 Rocky, S, 1999 Rocky, S, 2002 Mosquito, A, 2001 Light, S, 2001 First, A, 2001 Torrens, S, 1999 Hill, A, 2001 Rocky, A, 2003 Rocky, A, 2004 Myponga, A, 1998 Light, A, 2002 First, S, 2002 Torrens, S, 2000 Kanyaka, A, 1995 Rocky, S, 2003 Rocky, A, 2005 Myponga, S, 2001 Light, S, 2002 First, A, 2006 Torrens, A, 2001 Kanyaka, A, 2000 Rocky, S, 2004 - Myponga, A, 2002 Light, A, 2003 First, A, 2007 Torrens, S, 2001 Rocky, S, 1997 Torrens, S, 2005 - Myponga, A, 2004 Light, S, 2003 Hindmarsh, S, 1998 Torrens, S, 2002 Rocky, S, 2000 - - Myponga, S, 2004 Light, A, 2004 Hindmarsh, A, 1999 - Rocky, S, 2001 - - Myponga, A, 2005 Light, S, 2004 Hindmarsh, S, 1999 - Torrens, A, 1995 - - Myponga, S, 2005 Light, A, 2005 Hindmarsh, S, 2000 - Torrens, A, 2000 - - Myponga, A, 2006 Light, S, 2005 Hindmarsh, S, 2001 - - - - - Light, A, 2006 NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series 65 Hindmarsh, S, 2002 - - - - - Light, S, 2006 Hindmarsh, S, 2003 - - - - - Light, A, 2007 Hindmarsh, S, 2004 - - - - - - Light, S, 2000 - - - - - - Mosquito, A, 1994 - - - - - - Mosquito, A, 1995 - - - - - - Mosquito, S, 1995 - - - - - - Mosquito, S, 1997 - - - - - - Mosquito, A, 1998 - - - - - - Mosquito, S, 1998 - - - - - - Mosquito, S, 1999 - - - - - - Mosquito, S, 2000 - - - - - - Rocky, S, 1994 - - - - - - Rocky, S, 2005 - - - - - - Torrens, A, 2002 - - - - - - Torrens, S, 2004 - - - - - - Samples are abbreviated as follows: ‘river name’, season, year of sampling’. For season, S=spring and A = autumn. NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series 66 Appendix 3: Highly prevalent South Australian macroinvertebrate families in dataset Table 13: Families observed in more than half of riffle samples collected at more than half of the sites (total sites number = 11). Family* Mean # of samples recorded Sites recorded Chironominae* 91% 11 Orthocladiinae* 90% 11 Simuliidae 85% 11 Ceinidae 76% 11 Tanypodinae* 70% 11 Ceratopogonidae 65% 11 Naididae 54% 11 Hydroptilidae 51% 11 Hydropsychidae 61% 10 Hydrobiidae 81% 9 Caenidae 52% 9 Hygrobatidae 57% 8 Clavidae 52% 8 Gripopterygidae 66% 6 Leptophlebiidae 56% 6 Hydrobiosidae 51% 6 * Sub-families of the Chironomidae. Table 14. As above, but for edge samples (total sites = 12) Family Mean prevalence Occurrence Chironominae* 98% 10 Ceinidae 80% 10 Orthocladiinae* 87% 9 Tanypodinae* 85% 9 Ceratopogonidae 74% 9 Corixidae 70% 9 Leptoceridae 65% 9 Dytiscidae 61% 9 Hydroptilidae 53% 9 Naididae 51% 9 Hydrobiidae 71% 8 Aytidae 54% 7 Coenagrionidae 52% 7 NB: Highly prevalent taxa recorded at higher taxonomic resolution also warrant mention for both the riffle and edge list. Oligochaeta, Nematoda and Oribatida were all present in more than half the samples at more than half of the sites. 1. NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series 67 Appendix 4: Relevant findings for the Low Flow Ecological Response and Recovery Project Findings relevant to the aims of the Commission’s project are highlighted below, using the four principals of low-flow ecological response presented in Marsh et al. (2012) to provide context. Principal 1: Low flows control the extent of physical aquatic habitat, therefore influencing ecological patterns and processes. Evidence presented in case study 1 generally suggests that cease-to-flow periods are more critical in structuring macroinvertebrate communities than flow magnitude. Even very low flows appear able to support key processes and it is the duration of flow and spatial extent of (any) flowing habitat that apparently has the major influence on macroinvertebrate communities in South Australian rivers. In this region, the duration of streamflow is typically determined by the degree of any surface expression of groundwater. Case study 2 demonstrates differential flow dependence between three functional groups of macroinvertebrate families based on trait data, which links pattern (proportional representation of functional groups) and process (streamflow). Positive, negative and neutral responses are evident when proportional richness attributed to each functional group is compared with antecedent streamflow. Case study 3 identified a linear relationship between the number of YOY Galaxias olidus in autumn and the magnitude and duration of streamflow in the previous flow season from May to November. No flow-related threshold response was evident in the relationship; there was instead a linear decline in recruitment associated with decreasing flow magnitude and duration. Over observed conditions process uncertainty (variance) around the linear response appears to be homogeneous. Principal 2: Low flows mediate changes in habitat conditions, which in turn drive changes in ecosystem patterns and processes. Case study 1 found that riffle macroinvertebrate samples classified by trait prevalence divided into seven groups. Antecedent low-flow conditions were important for two of these groups. One group was predominantly associated with antecedent cease-to-flow periods whereas the latter was from sites which had experienced low antecedent flow conditions without any flow cessation. Both groups exhibited reduced functional dispersion of traits compared with all other groupings, suggesting the impacts on trait diversity were similar although different indicative traits were identified for each group. A third group exhibited high functional dispersion, despite having the lowest median-ranked flow magnitude, but perennial flow conditions. This evidence suggests that cease-to-flow periods are more influential on community trait expression than flow magnitude. In case study 2, a period of extreme drying over a decade at Mosquito Creek was assessed for its impact on macroinvertebrate communities. During this time streamflow transitioned from perennial to intermittent, with increasing annual periods of cease-to-flow. The magnitude of flow decrease is demonstrated by the 40-fold decrease in median daily flow for periods before and after 2001. The macroinvertebrate edge habitat samples demonstrate a step change between autumn and spring sampling in 2005, concurrent with a marked increase in EC that was almost certainly flow-mediated given a strong linear relationship between spring NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series 68 streamflow and conductivity (R2 = 0.78, p < 0.001). Spring samples demonstrated a larger overall response to stream drying, and this may be attributable to the fauna being adapted to more moderate conductivities and perennial flow conditions formerly experienced at the site. Refugia are clearly highly important for persistence of the Galaxias olidus population in the intermittent reaches of the upper Marne River. However, sites where survivorship was previously recorded (MREFTP 2003) no longer appear suitable for supporting populations with multiple age classes of reasonable abundance. The recently observed three consecutive years of poor recruitment (<10 YOY recorded in autumn sampling) are without precedent in modelled predictions from 1975 to 2006. It seems likely the poor recruitment and survivorship in recent years has resulted from a reduction in low flows due to farm dam and groundwater development, which have exacerbated the effects of drought conditions. Principal 3: Low flows affect the sources and exchange in aquatic ecosystems, resulting in altered ecosystem production and biotic composition. Case study 1 provides an example of indicative trophic trait states between riffle samples collected following low-flow periods and those from perennial or long-flow-duration sites. Predatory strategies were indicative of samples collected following periods of cease-to-flow, while filter-feeding was associated with samples associated with perennial conditions (defined here as continuous flow exceeding 365 days). A diverse range of feeding strategies were also evident across more perennial rivers, where the least variable rivers were significantly associated with a majority of the six functional feeding groups used in analysis. Highly variable rivers did not have any indicative feeding strategies. Principal 4: Low flows restrict dispersal, thereby increasing the importance of refugia to sustain biota and multi-scale patterns in biodiversity Data were generally of insufficient spatial resolution to determine dispersal effects. Case study 1 provides evidence that riffle sites where recent cease-to-flow events occurred contained taxa able to disperse by flight and drift. The length frequency data for Galaxias olidus in the upper Marne River from 2002 to 2010 indicate that survivorship is poor, with YOY numerically dominant in samples and very few older individuals observed. Additional data not presented in this report suggest high recruitment success seems to have facilitated dispersal between the three refugia on only one observed occasion (2005–06). While recruitment appears broadly positive linear with respect to flow based on the available data, dispersal appears to have a minimum flow threshold and is apparently only supported by a moderate to high flow magnitudes and/or substantial durations of flow. Periods where these flow conditions occur will also increase the probability of refuge persistence, which is also a limiting factor over recent years. Since the 2005 recruitment event, G. olidus populations in the upper Marne River have been decreasing (Hammer 2009), with few (or no recorded) fish or recruits observed in sampling since this time. 1. NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series 69 Shortened forms AusRivAS Australian Rivers Assessment Scheme DFW South Australian Department for Water EC Electrical conductivity EPA Environment Protection Authority ISA Indicator Species Analysis LAAA List all abbreviations and acronyms MLR Mount Lofty Ranges NMDS Non-metric multidimensional scaling NRMB Natural resources management board SAMDB South Australian Murray-Darling Basin WAP Water allocation plan YOY Young of the year NATIONAL WATER COMMISSION — Low flows report series 70 References Banks E 2010, Groundwater–surface water interactions in the Cox, Lenswood and Kersbrook creek catchments, Western Mount Lofty Ranges, South Australia, Report DWLBC 2010/19, Government of South Australia, through Department of Water, Land and Biodiversity Conservation, Adelaide. — 2010b, Surface water–groundwater interactions in the Rocky River Catchment, Kangaroo Island, South Australia, DFW Technical Report 2010/16, Government of South Australia, through Department for Water, Adelaide. 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