Evaluation of Remote Sensing Techniques over the Tropical Andes for use in Water Resource Management in Ecuador N.M. Brauders, W. Buytaert Abstract As global rain gauge network densities decline institutions are looking increasingly towards remote sensing techniques to better understand rainfall distributions. This study evaluates the potential application of the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) 2A25 algorithm for water resource management in Ecuador. Annual and seasonal long-term average (LTA) TRMM estimates were compared with LTA gauge observations. Ecuador has a highly variable climate with geophysical features, such as the Andes and Amazon rainforest, which control precipitation patterns. This study aims to understand the spatial and temporal variations in TRMM’s performance, in order to highlight any bias and present this in a manner that allows future studies to correct for such inconsistencies. The product shows good ability to reproduce rainfall distributions, but encounters problems quantifying rainfall amounts. It performs well in seasons and regions of heavy rainfall, however poorer performance is exposed in low rainfall and orographic scenarios. A general trend of underestimation is seen in Ecuador, but it is recommended that a separate bias correction be made over the Amazon. A more severe trend of underestimation in rainfall less than 300 mm/season is seen between JuneAugust and September-November. Rain gauge spatial interpolation is recommended to better understand TRMM’s behaviour over the Andes. N. M. Brauders Mott MacDonald Ltd. Demeter House, Station Rd. Cambridge, CB1 2RS Neill.brauders@mottmac.com W. Buytaert Dept. Civil and Environmental Engineering, Imperial College London. London, SW7 2AZ Wouter.buytaert@imperial.ac.uk Introduction It has been widely documented that the density of rain gauge networks throughout the globe are predicted to fall in coming years. As the global demand for water and fuel rises with a growing population, so too does the need for more effective water resource management. However, such effective management will require better understanding of the spatial and temporal variation of water as a resource, which will be mired by reducing gauge network densities. As a result, recently there has been much investment in the study of remote sensing techniques to quantify the spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation and therefore local water resources. Ecuador has very dynamic ecology, which comes from some notable geophysical and ecological features. One such feature is the vast Andean mountain region that ranges from North to South, splitting the country down the middle. The significance of this is that it subsequently divides the region into three broad eco-regions, the Andean highlands, the costal lowlands and the Amazon, also known as the Orient ((de Koning et al, 1998);(Leimbeck et al,2004)). Each region has a very distinct eco-system, which has a great impact on their subsequent climates. The effect of variation of both the climate and geophysical features on TRMM’s performance is investigated here. Data This study investigates the relationship between the TRMM PR 2A25 satellite rainfall estimates and observations from the Ecuadorian rain gauge network. The TRMM data was sourced from the website of the Cloud Systems Research Group, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois (http://www.atmos.illinois.edu/~snesbitt/data.html) (Nesbit & Anders, 2009). The data comes in the form of annual and seasonal mean daily rainfall rate estimates (mm/day), over a tenyear period between January 1998 and December 2008 at the newly available higher resolution of 0.05˚. These 0.05˚ pixels provide spatial estimations (mm/day), over a ten-year period (’98-’08), across Ecuador in a grid format. The Ecuadorian historical rain gauge dataset contained information for 1046 stations, but this was reduced to 331 after stringent data quality and confidence checks. It was supplied by the Instituto Nacional De Meterologia E Hidrologia (INAMHI), Ecuador. Records stretch to as far back as 1922 and hold monthly average rainfall records (mm/month) up as far as 2008. The records for some stations were intermittent and their lengths varied but only those with greater than two years continuous records were included. Both datasets were re-formatted to give an average annual/seasonal rainfall rates (mm/year and mm/season). The seasons represent the 4 main hydrological seasons of Ecuador, which are the following: December-February (DJF), March-May (MAM), June-August (JJA) and SeptemberNovember (SON). Methodology Trend Analysis This study aims to assess the performance of the TRMM product by comparing long-term average (LTA) rainfall estimates. This method was preferred because directly comparing average annual/seasonal estimates for any particular year would have limited the period of analysis to ’98’08 (the operational period of TRMM) and thus greatly reduced the number of gauging stations available to the study. However the gauge records, which stretch back to 1922 could only justifiably be used if stationarity over the period of comparison was proven. Therefore a trend analysis of the data periods 1922-1998 and 1998-2008 was undertaken in order to investigate the stability of the rainfall regimes in Ecuador. The results of the Investigation into the stability of the rainfall regimes in Ecuador are graphed below. Average Monthly Rainfall Trend: 1998-2008 Vs. 1922-1998 500 450 Trend: 1922-1998 (mm/month) 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 Station Line of 100% correlation 50 0 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Trend: 1998-2008 (mm/month) 400 450 500 Figure 1.1: Ecuador rainfall trend analysis between the TRMM operational period and the historical data for the initial 331 stations. As can be seen from fig 1.1.the rainfall regimes in the region are not significantly different between the two periods, apart from a few significant outliers. The LTA’s were calculated by averaging the TRMM estimations over the ’98-‘08 period, while the same was done for each gauging station over the available period. Comparison The direct comparison was made on a point-pixel scale by comparing 0.5° (4km by 4km) areal averaged pixel estimations with the relevant point gauge observations within that pixel. Comparing point with areal averaged estimations has inherent error (Clarke et al, 2011), but for this initial investigation allowed robust large-scale calculations to assess TRMM’s performance. The effects of increasing and averaging the number of rain gauges within a pixel were investigated and allowed conclusions to be drawn about related uncertainty. This was achieved by comparing multiple point-pixel averages as opposed to simply one point gauge measurement. There were 21 instances for which 2 gauges fell within the same pixel and one other with 3 gauges. An in depth regression analysis of the relationship between TRMM, Rainfall Observations and Elevation was carried out. This aimed to highlight any linear relationship between the variables with a view to incorporating this relationship in future studies The temporal analysis was conducted on an annual scale along with the 4 main hydrological seasons DJF, MAM, JJA and SON. The results of this investigation provide vital information on the ability of the satellite product to successfully reproduce observed measurements at particular periods throughout the year and how it reacts to certain climatic and rainfall regime variations. Spatial examination of performance was carried out over the whole of Ecuador and analysed in relation to 7 sub eco-regions, fig. 2.5. Each sub region having individual characteristics provides the opportunity to examine the effects of these characteristics on the accuracy of the product. Investigation into the influence of certain variables was aided by the representation of relationship qualifiers on a geographical map, which highlighted the spatial extent of their variability. As per Clarke et al (2011), residuals of regression analysis were plotted spatially. product bias has also been represented in similar fashion. As the map contains information pertaining to location and region, the influence of any related variables such as rainfall type, temperature, geophysical features, gauge density, climatic influences, seasonal rainfall patterns etc can be assessed spatially. Performance Indicators The following performance indicators were used in the spatial and temporal analysis: Correlation coefficient Bias Regression Analysis Graphical Analysis More information on these can be found in Buytaert et al (2006) & Clarke et al (2011). Results The results of the investigation into the ability of TRMM PR 2A25 LTA precipitation estimations to describe the rainfall regimes in Ecuador, both spatially and temporally are detailed below. Spatial & Temporal Distribution As can be seen from fig. 2.1, the overall agreement in terms of distribution is good, as TRMM shows the same seasonal trend and variation. However TRMM underestimates seasonal totals consistently by 40-100mm. The regional analysis agrees in that the overall distribution seems to be reproduced well by the satellite product, but again there are discrepancies in the magnitude of estimation. It is noted that region 1 (Amazon) shows an overestimation of 7%, which is in contrast with all other findings. TRMM does indeed have a pronounced underestimation trend in Ecuador. This is visibly present in figs. 2.1, 2.2 & 2.3 (a) and (b). 400 300 200 100 0 Gauge:Mean Rainfall Estimation per season (mm/season) 500 Gauge Network Estimation (mm/season) TRMM Estimation (mm/season) TRMM:Mean Rainfall Estimation per Season (mm/season) 500 DJF MAM JJA 400 300 200 100 0 SON DJF MAM JJA SON Gauge Network Estimation (mm/year) TRMM Estimation (mm/year) TRMM:Mean Annual Rainfall Estimation per Region Gauge:Mean Annual Rainfall Estimation per Region 3000 3000 2500 2500 2000 2000 1500 1500 1000 1000 500 0 1 2 3 4 5 Region 6 7 500 0 1 2 3 4 5 Region 6 7 Figure 2.1: Seasonal LTA rainfall (mm/season) estimations for TRMM PR and the observed gauge network and annual LTA regional rainfall estimations for TRMM PR and the gauge network. MAM has a closer relationship to the 1:1 line with a slope of 0.6, which indicates less of a tendency to underestimate and more accurate estimations, which is consistent with the results shown in fig. 2.1. C=171 M=0.35 1500 1000 500 0 Gauge-TRMM: MAM Estimation (mm/Season) TRMM Estimation (mm/Season) TRMM Estimation (mm/Season) Gauge-TRMM: DJF Estimation (mm/Season) 0 500 1000 1500 ECD Gauge Measurements (mm/Season) 1500 C=11 M=0.53 1000 500 0 0 500 1000 1500 ECD Gauge Measurements (mm/Season) C=171 M=0.60 1000 500 0 0 500 1000 1500 ECD Gauge Measurements (mm/Season) Gauge-TRMM: SON Estimation (mm/Season) TRMM Estimation (mm/Season) TRMM Estimation (mm/Season) Gauge-TRMM: JJA Estimation (mm/Season) 1500 1500 C=13 M=0.69 1000 500 0 0 500 1000 1500 ECD Gauge Measurements (mm/Season) Figure 2.2: Linear regression of LTA seasonal rain gauge observations against the LTA TRMM seasonal estimations for the relevant pixel. The green line indicates the regression line, while the red line represents 1:1 correlation, the intercept (C) and slope (M) values are also displayed. From top left to bottom right: DJF, MAM, JJA and SON. Figure 2.3 (a) exposes that the overestimation alluded to previously in region 1 is not the result of an overall trend of overestimation and may be the by-product of a few significant outliers. In fact, more than 80% of the stations in region 1 display a bias of within 10% of the observed rainfall, which is substantially better than any other region. The results displayed in fig. 2.2, highlight the consistent regional tendency of TRMM to underestimate by 15-40%, except for region 1 which actually exhibits a more accurate relationship. This means regional characteristics such as altitude, rainfall type, climate etc., don’t cause vast reagonalisation of the product bias in Ecuador. This opens up the possibility of generalising the bias relationship throughout Regions 2-7. Residuals Colour Coded per Region 6000 TRMM Estimation (mm/Year) 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 ECD Gauge Measurements (mm/Year) 5000 6000 Figure 2.3 (a): Line plot of the annual LTA bias values per region. The blue line represents an average bias of 1, which is a perfect average estimation, and the green markers represent the average bias per region. Region 1 individual station bias is inset. Figure 2.3 (b): Annual LTA regression analysis for the whole of Ecuador, highlighting each individual region in separate colours (region: 1 (red), 2 (cyan), 3 (green), 4 (blue), 5 (yellow), 6 (black) and 7 (purple)). The regression line is in green. The 2 general trends observed discussed further later seem to average out nicely over the year leading to a regression line with a slope of 0.61 and an intercept value of 258, which explains quite well the trend of observed underestimation. All regions are observed to follow the trend reasonably well at lower rain rates, except region 1 which shows some large overestimations. In general, region 1 has tight scatter about the 1:1 correlation line that signifies good product performance in the region, except for those few significant overestimations. However regions 2-7 display a markedly different trend and it is this difference that results in the inability of the regression to explain both areas better. Factors Affecting Product Performance TRMM estimated the season with the heaviest rainfall (MAM) the best, with DJF and JJA both displaying poorer estimations, fig. 2.1. Figure 2.2 shows scatter for MAM to be centred more generally about the 1:1 line, showing good estimations at both high and low rainfall rates. On the other hand JJA and SON, show a clearer pattern of underestimation, which is very prominent at lower rainfall rates of less than 300 mm/season. Figure 2.2 highlights that two separate trends exist, one for DJF and MAM and another for JJA and SON. Both trends agree that TRMM underestimates rainfall rates in Ecuador. The most notable thing about the two trends is the precision of within trend agreement in C, which changes quite drastically between the two trend types. The large group of low rainfall underestimations close to the origin in JJA and SON weighs heavily in the regression fitting and subsequently pulls down the C value. This counter acts the result of the general underestimation, which tends to rotate the trend line clockwise and increase C, as can be seen in DJF and MAM. In all this exposes the existence of a more severe trend of underestimation at rain rates less than 300 mm/year in JJA and SON, as discussed above. Figure 2.4: Shows the spatial distribution of the annual LTA TRMM rainfall bias over Ecuador. The overestimations in region 1, fig. 2.4, are shown to be located generally on the border of region 1 and 3, which are the lower Andean slopes. Excluding these inconsistent outliers Region 1 has a consistent trend of more accurate estimation and therefore, rotates the regression line in fig. 2.3 (b) counter-clockwise away from the general trend of regions 2-7. This is more evident at higher rainfall rates, as Region 1 exhibits high annual rainfall and so doesn’t drastically affect the lower levels of the regression. This is why the regression trend line seems to describe the regions 2-7 more stringently at lower rainfall rates, but then deviates at higher levels. Influence of Scale Inconsistency DJF MAM JJA SON Unaveraged Averaged Unaveraged Averaged Unaveraged Averaged Unaveraged Averaged Correlation Coefficients 0.4 0.46 0.57 0.7 0.79 0.86 0.45 0.93 Log Correlation Coefficients 0.53 0.61 0.56 0.68 NA NA NA NA Coefficient of Determination 0.55 0.98 -0.23 0.83 0.72 0.81 0.58 0.7 Figure 2.5: Displays LTA seasonal regression analysis MAM, for those pixels that contain more than one gauge, showing the averaged and unaveraged analysis on the normal (blue) scale with regression equation. The regression lines are shown in black. Related correlation coefficients for the analysis are also shown. From analysis of the seasonal plots it is evident that the averaging process greatly reduces the scatter of the data, as can be seen in fig. 2.5 above. More importantly this reduction in scatter is centred about the 1:1 line, indicating a marked improvement in estimation accuracy. Visual inspection of the averaged data is a lot more conclusive than the unaveraged data. Comparing the unaveraged and averaged values for each season shows improvement in both the correlation coefficients and the r2 values. Similar results are seen on the annual scale. It must be noted that this analysis is carried out with a small sample of 22 stations, thus the results are limited and should only be taken as an indication into the merits of the averaging process. Elevation An investigation into the relationship between rainfall and elevation in Ecuador found an almost horizontal line with a slope of -0.13 and a coefficient of determination of 0.29, which highlights the non-existence of any linear trend. A similar analysis was carried out for individual mountainous regions (2, 3, 4 and 6), which expected a more conclusive result but was limited in some regions by the number of samples. Table 2.1: LTA correlation coefficients for the TRMM-gauge relationship per region and per season. Correlation Coefficients Season Region DJF 1 0.51 2 0.42 3 0.26 4 0.19 5 0.53 6 0.01 7 -0.5 Ecuador 0.45 MAM 0.48 0.35 0.46 0.71 0.66 0.76 0.7 0.64 JJA 0.47 0.03 0.74 0.85 0.7 -0.16 0.62 0.7 SON 0.53 0.32 0.72 0.86 0.73 0.13 -0.02 0.68 ANNUAL 0.6 0.29 0.64 0.81 0.83 0.23 0.73 0.69 By examining table 2.1 in conjunction with fig.2.4 a noticeable trend in the correlation of TRMM with elevation is found. It can be seen that low land regions 4, 5 and 7 exhibit the best correlations while in the Andean slopes of region 3 the correlation reduces and finally, in the Andean valley (regions of 2 and 6) it reduces to less than 30%. This clearly highlights increasingly inconsistent behaviour with increasing elevation over the Ecuadorian Andes. Performance on Temporal Scales This study finds that the average seasonal correlations for each region are generally similar to or improved upon by the annual correlations, as seen in table 2. This result is statistical confirmation that when the seasonal relationships are combined to form the annual relationship, between TRMM and the gauge observations the resultant relationship is stronger. Discussion One of the main assumptions that have to be made to allow comparison is that ground based rain gauge data is a “true” observation of rainfall. This is clearly a false assumption because, as pointed out by Sevruk & Nespor (1998), up to 20% underestimation can be encountered by a rain gauge. This highlights that the problem of inconsistency does not totally lie with the satellite product, however the lack of a reasonable alternative in gauge sparse Ecuador makes it plausible. Both Hughes (2006) and Ebert (2007) highlight poor spatial representation of gauging networks in mountainous regions, where they are most needed to capture highly spatially varying gradients. This increase in spatial sampling error, along with undercatch errors associated with snow and wind at high altitudes contribute in a more than trivial way to the inconsistent behaviour noted in the Ecuadorian Andes. Trends It is worth noting that the negative correlations arise, as the sample sizes of the respective regions are too small to average out individual gauge errors. Region 7 has only 5 stations in its sample and experiences such problems. It is proposed that region 7 is joined with region 5, as region 5 has 110 stations and would be able to average out any error observed in region 7. This is plausible not only because region 7 is located within region 5 but also both regions exhibit the same TRMM-gauge relationship and bias of estimation. Two main bias relationships were outlined on the annual scale, one in the Amazon and another in regions 2-7. The underestimation is generally between 15-40% in the Pacific Coast and Andean Highlands, which then significantly improves to a more accurate slight underestimation in the Amazon. Thus it is recommended that separate correction factors be applied to both regions. A global correction for all regions would not allow for the trend difference and subsequently be more erroneous. Furthermore, it is proposed that either the correction within the Amazon itself is made in two parts or the borders of region 3 are extended to include the overestimating stations. The highlighted overestimations in the Amazon region are affected by their location on the border of region 3, a region of inconsistent behaviour proposed for further study. These stations of overestimation follow a similar trend to that of region 3. Annual correlation coefficients in the region of 0.65-0.85 are generally observed but a marked reduction in these values is seen with increasing elevation towards the Andean Highlands. Dinku et al (2007) completed a comprehensive study of satellite products over complex topography in East Africa. The study revealed that TRMM performed well with correlation coefficients of around 0.5, comparable with those for lower regions in this study. Similar correlation coefficients are observed in the tropical Andes of Columbia by Dinku et al (2010), revealing underestimations in both the Pacific Coast and Andean Highlands, ranging between 1025%. In contrast with our findings good correlation was observed over the complex topography of the Andes. It is important to note that kriging was used to interpolate the gauge data, but these studies show similar results to the point-pixel method in areas of relative topographical homogeneity. Factors influencing performance It is found that the relationship between rainfall and elevation in the Ecuadorian Andes is simply too complex to be characterised by a basic linear relationship, as also noted by Bookhagen and Strecker (2008) Satellite products find it difficult to detect light orographic rainfall, which is very prominent in such regions as the Outer Andean Slopes ((Kidd, 2001); (Bookhagen & Strecker, 2008); (Kubota et al, 2009)), especially considering the topographic barrier effect it provides in Ecuador. It is also know that TRMM performs worst in cooler conditions and encounters large errors in snow capped mountainous areas (Ebert et al, 2007), thus the higher altitudes of the Inter Andean Valleys are expected to observe unstable behaviour. TRMM’s increasingly poor performance with altitude in Ecuador can be attributed to these two points and because steep spatial rainfall gradients, characteristic of mountainous regions, are difficult to reproduce because of the course nature of the satellite observations. These results are seen in table 1.8, which shows a reduction in regional correlation coefficient with altitude. As described previously MAM is the season of heaviest rainfall as the equatorial current dominates all but the southern, arid regions of the coast and so this is the season with the most accurate rainfall rate estimation. It was highlighted in the results that the seasonal analysis estimated the season with the most rainfall the best, while the regional analysis severely underestimated the region with the heaviest rainfall, region 4 in the lower Andean slopes. As the reasons for poor performance in region 4 have now been outlined, it is exposed that the region with the next heaviest rainfall the Amazon provides the most accurate estimation. Thus, both seasonal and regional best estimates are of the heaviest season and region, which is consistent with the current literature. TRMM tends to perform best in heavy convective conditions, backed up by Kubota et al (2009). This trend in performance can be confirmed here, as the most consistently accurate region in terms of bias is region 1 with an annual estimation of within 7%, despite the heavy overestimation in some stations. The Amazon is an area of year round heavy convectional rainfall, due to the tropical heating of the large river basin. This year round heavy convectional rainfall is the reason for the year round consistency in correlation coefficient and accurate annual estimation. The opposite is true for light rainfall and as discussed previously TRMM’s poor performance in the Andean slopes of Ecuador confirm this. Previous studies have revealed that TRMM tends to underestimate in low rainfall and this is consistent with the findings of this study for the JJA and SON seasons. The results point out a very prominent underestimation trend at lower levels of rainfall, but more specifically at levels less than 300 mm/season. A further analysis was carried out to show the difference between the higher level and lower level rainfall trends and for both seasons the rates less than 300 mm/season displayed a markedly increased trend of underestimation. It is recommended that the more severe underestimating relationship observed at low levels of rainfall, less than 300 mm/season, in JJA and SON should be corrected for independently of higher rainfall amounts. Another interesting discussion point is the poor correlation coefficient for the coast in DJF in relation to other seasons. As TRMM performs better in warmer conditions (Ebert et al, 2007) it is contrary to expectation that the DJF coastal correlation coefficient is less than the colder JJA, SON seasons. This strange behaviour is suspected to be due to the arid region located in the south of the coastal region during DJF. Its existence produces a heterogeneous climate throughout the region and reduces the strength of the TRMM-gauge relationship trend. The effect of this arid region is clearly visible in fig. 2.4, which shows a cluster of overestimations on the annual scale, directly related to the position of the arid region along the coastline. This is expected as Ebert et all (2007) highlights TRMM’s tendency to overestimate in dry, arid conditions. Interpolation and Elevation Clarke et al (2011) proposes that for accurate verification of satellite estimates over land, there is a need for careful interpolation of the ground-based observations to allow consistent areal comparison (Clarke et al, 2011). The influence of scale analysis shows that there are indeed benefits to be gained by improving the areal sampling. This study found no evidence of any significant linear relationship between elevation and rainfall either in the coastal mountainous area or the Andean region of Ecuador. This is in contrast to the findings of Singh & Kumar (1997) in the West Himalayas where rainfall is observed to increases linearly on the outer slopes, as no such relationship was exposed on the outer slopes of the Andes in this study. As noted before, this is due to the complex non-linear nature of the relationship in the Andes. Analysing with gauge interpolation comes inherent problems in areas with poorly distributed gauge networks such as the Amazon and in highly variable mountainous regions such as the Andes (Hughes, 2006). So this study recommends that the complex rain relationship with elevation be further studied, in an attempt to include it in the interpolation model in order to give a better account of ‘true’ rainfall. Despite the advantages of interpolation the direct point-pixel method shows relevance for investigative studies such as this also. Scale of analysis On the seasonal scale there is more observed variance in the regional relationships between TRMM and gauge observations, and as such any attempts to correct these relationships should be made with prudence. Conclusion The performance of the 0.5˚ resolution TRMM PR 2A25 algorithm was evaluated with uninterpolated point gauge observations over Ecuador. The general conclusions are as follows: 1. This study’s finds that TRMM has good ability to reproduce rainfall distributions in Ecuador but encounters problems with estimating rainfall totals accurately. The product is found to consistently underestimate in Ecuador, however 2 separate bias corrections are recommended. The Amazon displays a more accurate trend of underestimation to the rest of the region and so requires unique correction. No significant rationalisation occurs throughout the rest of the Ecuador and thus a general bias correction can be applied. 2. The product is found to be most accurate in heavy convective conditions, such as in the Amazon and Pacific Coast regions and in the season of MAM. TRMM displays significant underestimating tendencies in seasons of low rainfall at rainfall rates below 300 mm/season. It also encounters significant problems detecting orographic rainfall on the Andean slopes and exhibits notable unstable behaviour in the Andean Highlands. 3. It is found that the implementation of a rain gauge interpolation method, such as kriging would address the point-pixel areal sampling discrepancy. However, co-kriging with elevation as a co-variable would not present any significant benefit, due to the lack of linear relationship between rainfall and elevation found here in the Ecuadorian Andes. Thus, ordinary kriging is recommended, as per Demaria et al, 2011. If this method is found not to be fruitful then the interpolation model is recommended incorporate the complex relationship between rainfall and elevation, highlighted in the Andes by Bookhagen & Strecker, 2008. 4. Finally, temporal analysis on the product revealed more stable behaviour on the annual scale, with much less noise than on the seasonal 3-monthly scale. It is thought that the averaging out of sampling errors over a 12-month period is most likely to be the reason for this. References: Bookhagen, B. & Strecker, M. 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