Summaries of the main reactions to the hypotheses of the Concept Note
The following summaries are based on the written reactions of the national teams to the
concept note as requested in the ToR and comprise for each country three sections stating the
significance and relevance of the hypotheses of: a) Segmentation, b) Structural Locking and
Existing Alternatives and, c) Reshaping of Rural Economy.
· Kenya
a) Segmentation.
As a consequence of the need for expanding Kenyan agricultural sector into regional and
international markets, competition has increased (see the case of maize where this opening up of
borders has brought on mixed results: proliferation in food imports in detriment of producers but
to the advantage of consumers). Compliance with stringent international market requirements
(norms and standards) for some commodities has been easier for large scale producers
(concentration and emergence of corporate farms), whereas a number of smallholders have been
pushed out. Business integration in agriculture is in its initial steps and contract farming often
comes up against enforcement problems. Varying productivity and competitiveness issues can be
noticed: duality of agriculture (subsistence and commercial) and spatial polarization (i.e. dairy
products, maize, coffee, livestock and sugar).
b) Structural Locking and Existing Alternatives.
The distinction between rural/urban and agriculture/non-agriculture population in Kenya
becomes less and less relevant due to: generalized off-farm income (like salaried, business and
remittances), remaining and increasing linkages between rural and urban dwellers. Of great
concern is the inability of the rural sector to absorb the larger number of unemployed people.
Consequently, migration has picked up lately (rural-urban migration continued -particularly of the
economically active-, and international migration –which in spite of the brain drain is generally
regarded as positive). ICT sector is a growth center but requesting specific skills. The future of
the unskilled labor force is posed.
c) Reshaping of Rural Economy.
Major shift in the composition of rural household incomes: non-farm activities and rise of
remittances (emergence of funds transfer facilities like Western Union). The rapid growth of the
ICT sector has contributed to the re-enforcement of family networks (wide availability of cell
phones).
· Madagascar
a) Segmentation.
The opening up of the Madagascar market and the withdrawal of the State have not
stimulated the competitiveness of traditional export commodity chains, which have even suffered
a decrease of production (coffee, vanilla, sugar, cotton). Among the reasons: lack of information
on the markets, decrease of international prices of certain goods (coffee, cotton), poor
infrastructure. At the same time, imports of first-need products have increased (sugar, milk, oil).
Very few businesses are integrated in Madagascar, mainly: processed vegetables (Lecofruit),
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meats and fruits, shrimp, dairy products (Tiko). Large distribution chains have developed
(Shoprite, Score, Cora); their integration with local producers remains low but looks promising.
Two-speed agriculture in Madagascar can be observed: big agriculture farms involved in the
industrial cultures and the small peasants living on subsistence agriculture. Territorial polarization
is strong with land saturation in the High Lands, communication isolation in the West, and high
vulnerability of farmers in the South and the East Coast).
b) Structural Locking and Existing Alternatives.
Madagascar is still a very rural country. Agriculture is the larger employment sector but it
faces land saturation and labor force surplus. Sectors that can modestly absorb the excess of
active population are textile areas, the service sector and the craft industry. The Integrated
Growth zones (Poles Intégrés de Croissance) privilege growth enclaves based on textile, tourism
and mining sectors. International migration is very low in Madagascar. Internal migration is also
limited and focused on rural/rural (seasonal) and suburbs/urban areas. Besides, Madagascar is
little urbanized, with high-density and deserted areas.
c) Reshaping of Rural Economy.
There is little information about this topic, but there is some evidence of the emergence
of pluri-activity and non-farm incomes. In any case, family solidarity is still strong in
Madagascar, particularly in poor households where transfers play a buffer role (in 2001, 27% of
transfers within Madagascar had parents, sisters and bothers as recipients).
· Mali
a) Segmentation.
The competitiveness of the national commodity chains has improved after the
devaluation of the CFA Franc and the market opening, but except for the cotton, the effects were
limited to the local and sub-regional markets (and extended by the land-lock situation of the
country). Commodity chains in Mali are still far from the integration and large scale distribution
processes. Integration was a fact of public societies (rice with Office du Niger and cotton with
CMDT), but privatization has not been completely addressed and contractual agriculture is almost
non-existent. Agriculture in Mali is essentially based on family farming. The differentiation
process is in progress but led by the access to resources and production factors in environmentally
fragile and overpopulated areas, instead of market competitiveness.
b) Structural Locking and Existing Alternatives.
All types of migration exist in Mali and are a main answer to economic and social
problems: the traditional short-term seasonal migration (within or to neighboring countries), to
complement family revenue; long-term migration to Bamako or abroad (one or several years);
rural/rural migration linked to local land saturation, food insecurity, social conflicts. International
migrations are old and existed prior liberalization (mainly due to the increase of poverty). Internal
migrations are targeted to the Office du Niger (central delta of the Niger river) and the pioneer
front areas in the South. Bamako is also a hosting pole (important informal sector). But in general
the absorption capacity of the industry and services is weak and foreign migration remains the
actual resort for Malians.
c) Reshaping of Rural Economy.
It is perceptible, particularly in the most developed areas (Office du Niger, and cotton
region), stimulating the craft industry, commerce and the informal sector. This phenomenon has
increased due to land saturation, economic marginalization of many smallholders, and a certain
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erosion of the traditional extended family organization (which reduces its buffer role). Generally
there is not sufficient data on non-agriculture rural activities or the weight of remittances in rural
areas.
· Mexico
a) Segmentation.
In the Mexican case, segmentation is not the only result of liberalization but of a long
historical process of agrarian reform. Liberalization has reinforced this segmentation. As such:
food exports and imports have increased, but the food trade balance in negative; the integration
process is important and growing, but concentrated on fruits and vegetable markets and in certain
regions (North, Pacific coast). The presence of supermarkets is important and increasing (Walmart), but their impact on agriculture is not clear. Two track agriculture exists since a long time
ago, with an evident regional polarization (the South region, with the highest Indian population, is
marginalized, the most vulnerable, and liberalization reinforces this situation).
b) Structural Locking and Existing Alternatives.
Increase of marginalization and lack of opportunities in rural areas have induced huge
migration, particularly to the U.S. (10 million Mexican born live in the US), and to intermediate
and big cities. The urban commerce and service markets are the most important absorbing sectors.
c) Reshaping of Rural Economy.
Multifaceted household income composition, with non-agricultural income playing an
increasingly important role, is the main characteristic of the rural areas. Poor rural families
depend on badly paid agricultural products and salaries, and from few non-agricultural activities.
Income transfers (public transfers from pro-poor programs and private ones with remittances) are
nowadays a very important component of family income. The family networks play a crucial role
in the success of migration.
· Morocco
a) Segmentation.
Opening has not favored export promotion or the competitiveness of national commodity
chains, although there are some exceptions, but liberalization helped to end of some taxation and
state monopolies. Integration is still not very significant, and contract farming is limited. Among
the major impacts are: a two-tracks agriculture mainly encouraged by the state with some agrobusinesses and vulnerable population (small and medium farms with low margins of maneuver);
polarization phenomena with sub-sector concentration (disappearance of micro-farms), territorial
polarization (irrigated areas -Souss-Massa, Berkane - and vulnerable regions in low rainfall,
oasis, mountain areas).
b) Structural Locking and Existing Alternatives.
A moderated level of rural depopulation explains a slight absolute increase of the rural
population but some remote areas are increasingly marginalized. The current development model
is a weak generator of employments (mainly in the industry, services); activities in nonagricultural sectors are still limited, but there is an important buffer informal sector which works
as a “black box”. Migration is geared towards cities and abroad (with illegal immigration,
particularly to France, Spain and Italy), and the internal immigration is seasonal toward irrigated
zones or at times of harvest.
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c) Reshaping of Rural Economy.
There is no precise information on this topic but it is known that the main activity of 80%
of rural households is agriculture. The weight of remittances in income greatly varies by region,
from insignificant to almost-exclusive. Family networks are still strong but there is a certain
wavering of family solidarity.
· Nicaragua
a) Segmentation.
A rapid process of segmentation and deregulation has taken place in the rural sector over
the last decade but key sensible food products still enjoy high levels of protection. Agricultural
products for export markets are more competitive now, while products for local markets have not
significantly changed regarding competitiveness. Business integration processes are in the early
stages of development: supermarkets (Wal-Mart) and international chains (Starbucks, Yoplait,
Parmalat) have integrated a growing number of fruits and vegetable growers, dairy farmers and
exporters of coffee; few agribusinesses work with contract farming, but their number may
increase. Due to differences in market integration a three-track agricultural sector has developed,
with: a small segment of farmers linked to global distribution networks; traditional agro-export
chains (integrating a significant number of cattle ranchers and coffee growers); and the majority
of rural households that produce food products with low quality and are linked to local
distribution networks. This integration difference corresponds to a regional differentiation.
b) Structural Locking and Existing Alternatives.
Migration between rural regions is limited, since available land is scarce and the pressure
on land increased by protected areas (natural reserves). Rural migration destinations are urban
areas (related to duty free export production zones), Costa Rica (agriculture and services sectors),
the US (construction and services sector) and other Central American countries.
c) Reshaping of Rural Economy.
In the long run, there is a fear that migration will disarticulate rural families. Public
transfers through poverty-reduction and public infrastructure programs are estimated at USD 250
million per year. Public transfers (which are highly dependant on foreign aid) tend to support
relatively wealthy segments of the rural population whereas private remittances shore up incomes
of rural poor households.
· Senegal
The late identification of the Senegalese team of consultants prevented the preparation of
written comments.
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