Warm and Wet Winter Expected under Strong ENSO

Contact: Ming-Dean Cheng
Weather Forecast Center
Central Weather Bureau
(02)2349-1234, 0921993603
Warm and Wet Winter Expected under Strong ENSO
Taipei, Taiwan--November 27, 2015 – The coming winter in Taiwan is probably warm under
the influence of global warming and strong ENSO, while rainfall of this winter will be near
to above normal, predicted by the Central Weather Bureau (CWB). Even so, the chance of
cold surge occurrence still exists.
The CWB points out that, the strength of this ENSO will reach its peak during next season,
and be comparable to or even exceed the strength of the super ENSO occurred in 1997/98.
The ENSO impact has gradually shown up all over the world in autumn, e.g. drought in
Indonesia and Brazil, and these phenomena are expected to continue until winter. The
developing ENSO will also weaken the northeasterly winter monsoon. For lack of cold air,
the autumn mean temperature in Taiwan has a chance to set the record high.
According to the research, the winter in Taiwan tends to be warm and wet while ENSO
developing, especially warm in December and wet in February. The latest model forecasts
also show similar results. Therefore, CWB summarizes that there is higher probability of
warm winter. However, a warm winter does not exclude the possibility of cold surges. As to
the precipitation, although near to above normal rainfall is expected this winter, the rainfall
will not be as much as it is in summer since December and January are climatically the driest
two months in Taiwan.
As winter season up till the month of April is typically a dry period in central and southern
Taiwan, the CWB recommends the public to conserve water. People should get winterized
and ensure good indoor ventilation while using gas heater to avoid carbon monoxide
poisoning during cold surge’s influence. The CWB updates its one-month and three-month
climate outlook on a weekly and monthly basis, respectively, which are available on the
CWB website: http://www.cwb.gov.tw.