CONSEQUENCE AND LIKELIHOOD DESCRIPTORS AND RISK MATRIX.
Risk Dimension Consequence Descriptors
Use the following table to determine the severity of the risk under consideration.
An explanation of the dimensions can be found in Attachment A.
Table 1. Consequences: If the impact event occurs
Environment and
Heritage
SEVERE – 21
Irreversible and extensive:
 damage to any matter
protected under the EPBC
Act;
 damage to values of a place
on a National or
Commonwealth Heritage list
or an indigenous heritage
site;
 degradation of air, land or
water environments; or
 loss of biodiversity.
Production of waste or
consumption of resources over
100% more than set targets.
MAJOR – 16
Extensive and reversible, in
more than 2 years, or
irreversible and localized:
MODERATE – 11
Localized and reversible, in
less than 2 years, or irreversible
and immediate:
MINOR – 6
Localized and reversible, in
less than 6 months, or
immediate and reversible:
 damage to any matter
protected under the EPBC
Act;
 damage to the values of a
place on a National or
Commonwealth Heritage list
or an indigenous heritage
site;
 degradation of air, land or
water environments; or
 loss of biodiversity.
 damage to any matter
protected under the EPBC
Act;
 damage to the values of a
place on a National or
Commonwealth Heritage list
or an indigenous heritage
site;
 degradation of air, land or
water environments; or
 loss of biodiversity.
 damage to any matter
protected under the EPBC
Act;
 damage to the values of a
place on a National or
Commonwealth Heritage list
or an indigenous heritage
site;
 degradation of air, land or
water environments; or
 loss of biodiversity.
Production of waste or
consumption of resources up to
100% more than set targets.
Production of waste or
consumption of resources
around 50% more than set
targets.
Production of waste or
consumption of resources
around 20% more than set
targets.
NEGLIGIBLE - 1
Immediate and reversible, in
less than a month:
 damage to any matter
protected under the EPBC
Act;
 damage to the values of a
place on a National or
Commonwealth Heritage list
or an indigenous heritage
site;
 degradation of air, land or
water environments; or
 loss of biodiversity.
All mission essential tasks1 are
unable to be completed in
accordance with CDF
Preparedness Directive (CPD).
MINDEF required to be
advised.
Capability
AND
For major assets2 resumption
not possible within 24 hours.
For important assets
resumption not possible within
7 days.
For support assets resumption
not possible within 28 days.
Most mission essential tasks
are unable to be completed in
accordance with the CPD.
CDF required to be advised.
AND
1
For major assets resumption
not possible within 24 hours.
Some mission essential tasks
are delayed causing readiness
levels to fall below CPD
requirements. CJOPS/VCDF
required to be advised.
Delays to some mission
essential tasks that don’t cause
readiness levels to fall below
CPD requirements.
OR
Some mission essential tasks
delayed for units or FEG’s no
on the CPD.
For important assets
resumption not possible within
7 days.
Most or all mission essential
tasks unable to be completed
for units or FEG’s3 not on the
CPD.
For support assets resumption
not possible within 28 days.
AND
For major assets1 resumption
not possible within 24 hours.
For important assets
resumption not possible within
7 days.
For support assets resumption
not possible within 28 days.
1
Mission essential tasks are tasks that need to be completed to maintain levels of readiness required by the CPD.
A description of major, important and support asset classifications is provided at Attachment A.
3
A FEG is a force element group.
2
OR
No impact on readiness levels.
OR
Mission essential tasks can be
adjusted so that all
requirements of CPD and nonCPD units and FEGs are
fulfilled.
Table 2. Consequence: If the impact event occurs
Compliance4, 5
SEVERE – 21
Exposure to significant
damages involving one or more
persons,
OR
prosecution with maximum
penalty imposed.
MAJOR – 16
Exposure to large damages or
awards
OR
prosecution with 50% to
maximum penalty imposed.
MODERATE – 11
Some legal constraints imposed
with up to half of maximum
fine imposed.
OR
Non Compliance with
Department Policy.
MINOR – 6
Technical legal challenge or
legal breach
OR
NEGLIGIBLE - 1
Technical breach but no
damages and no monetary
penalty.
up to 20% of maximum
damages or monetary penalty
imposed
OR
Occupational Health
and Safety
Non-compliance with Standard
Operating Procedure or
equivalent.
4
5
One or more fatalities or life
threatening injuries or illness.
OR
Public or staff exposed to a
severe, adverse long-term
health impact or lifethreatening hazard.
One or more injuries or illness
requiring surgery or resulting in
permanent disablement.
OR
Public or staff exposed to a
hazard that results in surgery or
permanent disablement.
One or more injuries or illness
requiring treatment by a
physician or hospitalisation.
One or more injuries or illness
requiring treatment by a
qualified first aid person.
OR
Public or staff exposed to a
hazard that could cause injuries
or health effects requiring
treatment by a physician or
hospitalisation.
OR
Public or staff exposed to a
hazard that could cause injuries
or adverse health effects
requiring treatment by a
qualified first aid person.
NOTE: Detailed guidance on severity of consequences relating to compliance with the EPBC Act is attached as Attachment C
NOTE: Includes compliance with Departmental Policy – which is not a legal requirement..
An injury or ailment that does
NOT require medical treatment
by a physician or a qualified
first aid person.
Personnel
Financial Efficiency
(Excludes Legal Costs)
Table 2. Consequence: If the impact event occurs
SEVERE – 21
MAJOR – 16
MODERATE – 11
MINOR – 6
NEGLIGIBLE - 1
Impact will cost more than
three (3) times as much to
mitigate as it would cost to
prevent.
Impact will cost two (2) to
three (3) times as much to
mitigate as it would cost to
prevent.
Impact will cost one and a half
(1.5) to two (2) times as much
to mitigate as it would cost to
prevent.
Impact will cost 1.2 to 1.5
times as much to mitigate as it
would cost to prevent.
Impact will cost the same
amount to mitigate as it would
cost to prevent.
OR
OR
OR
OR
OR
For cost savings, potential
payback period of 1 year is not
realised.
For cost savings, potential
payback period of 2 years is not
realised.
For cost savings, potential
payback period of 5 years is not
realised.
For cost savings, potential
payback period of 10 years is
not realised.
For cost savings, there is little
or no payback realised.
OR
OR
OR
OR
Flow on costs that are greater
than 200% of the cost of the
project.
Flow on costs that are > 100%
of the project cost.
OR
Flow on costs that are less than
60% of the cost of the project.
No or minimal flow on costs.
Serious negative affect on staff
morale effecting all staff
associated with the structure,
with significant loss of
productivity, > 5 days lost
Major negative affect on staff
morale, affecting more than
half the staff associated with
the structure with major loss of
productivity, > 1 day lost.
Moderate negative affect on
staff morale, affecting less than
half the staff associated with
the structure, with some loss of
productivity, < 1 day lost.
Minimal affect on staff morale,
affecting a small number
(<25%) of staff associated with
the structure with possible
minor productivity loss
Little or no impact on
Personnel in any area.
OR
OR
OR
OR
A high number (> 80%) of the
affected staff are highly likely
to be re-considering their
continued service or
employment within defence
Over 50% of affected Staff are
likely to be re-considering their
continued service or
employment within defence
Staff are unlikely to be reconsidering their continued
service or employment within
defence.
OR
Some (up to 50%) of staff
impacted may be reconsidering their continued
service or employment within
defence
OR
Threat of Industrial Action.
OR
Industrial action is about to be
taken.
Flow on costs that are 60-100%
of the cost of the project.
Employee representative
involvement.
Reputation
Table 2. Consequence: If the impact event occurs
SEVERE – 21
MAJOR – 16
MODERATE – 11
MINOR – 6
NEGLIGIBLE - 1
Detrimental international media
reports
Sustained detrimental national
or state media reports.
Limited detrimental national or
state media reports
High profile detrimental local
media reports
Low profile detrimental local
media reports
OR
OR
OR
OR
OR
Subject of international
government attention.
Subject of a number of
parliamentary questions and
ministerials.
Subject of a parliamentary
question or ministerial.
Subject of local government
action
OR
OR
Trivial substantiated
complaints from the
community.
Non realisation of a
government commitment
OR
Sustained community outrage
Organised community concerns
and complaints.
OR
OR
OR
Random substantiated
complaints from the
community.
Televised public
demonstrations involving
multiple social organisations.
Televised public
demonstrations involving a
small number of minority
groups.
Public demonstrations
involving multiple social
organisations but not televised.
OR
OR
Public demonstrations
involving small number of
minority groups, not televised.
OR
Small number of individuals
demonstrating.
Likelihood Descriptors
Guidance for determining likelihood ratings is provided in Table 3, below:
Table 3. Likelihood
Likelihood of the consequences occurring in the requested funding period.
Rating
Description
Almost Certain Has occurred several times in the past year and in each of the previous
5 years OR has a > 90% chance of occurring before the risk assessment
9
is reviewed (12 months) if the risk is not mitigated
Likely
7
Has occurred at least once in the past year and in each of the previous 5
years OR has a 60-90% chance of occurring before the risk assessment
is reviewed (12 months)if the risk is not mitigated.
Possible
5
Even probability of consequences occurring before the risk assessment
is reviewed (12 months).
Has occurred two or three times during the past 5 years OR has a 4060% chance of occurring before the risk assessment is reviewed (12
months)if the risk is not mitigated.
Unlikely
3
Has occurred once in the last 5 years OR has a 10-30% chance of
occurring in the future if the risk is not mitigated.
Rare
1
Has not occurred in the past 5 years OR may occur in exceptional
circumstances, i.e. less than 10% chance of occurring in the next
funding period if the risk is not mitigated.
6
Risk Level and Risk Score
The risk matrix for this Environmental Risk Tool has been adopted from the Defence Estate Risk
Assessment Tool which was developed in accordance with guidance from the Defence Enterprise Risk
Management Guidelines and Australian Standard AS/NZS 4360.
The Risk Level for each Risk Dimension is determined by mapping the consequence and likelihood
rating in accordance with the following risk assessment matrix.
The Risk Score for each Risk Dimension is determined by adding the Consequence and Likelihood
rating numerical value in accordance with the following risk assessment matrix. The higher the value the
higher the priority.
Risk Assessment Matrix
Likelihood
Rating
Almost
Certain
9
Likely
7
Possible
5
Unlikely
3
Rare
1
Consequence Rating
Severe
21
Very High
Major
16
Very High
Moderate
11
High
Minor
6
Medium
Negligible
1
Low
30
Very High
28
High
26
High
24
High
22
25
High
23
High
21
Medium
19
Medium
17
20
Medium
18
Medium
16
Medium
14
Low
12
15
Medium
13
Medium
11
Low
9
Low
7
10
Low
8
Low
6
Low
4
Low
2
Example:
a. A risk assessed as having a “Major” Consequence and a “Possible” likelihood is allocated a Risk
Level of HIGH and a Risk Score of 21.
b. A “Severe” Consequence with an “Unlikely” likelihood results in a Risk level of HIGH and a Score
of 24.
Risk Banding
The Risk Band for an impact will be determined from the highest Risk Level of all dimensions. If a
project is assessed as a Very High risk in one dimension and a Low risk in the other six dimensions it
will fall into the Very High risk band.
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March 2006
Risk Priority
The Risk Priority is an aggregate of the risk scores in all of the dimensions, it enables prioritisation
among all of the impacts falling in a risk band.
Dimensions that are not assessed are scored as the lowest possible risk, ie. 2.
8
March 2006
Attachment A - Risk Dimensions
Table 1. Description of Risk Dimensions
Risk Dimension
Description
Capability
Capacity of the facility to support the user unit in delivery of its primary outputs.
Failure to meet the requirements of the Chief of Defence Force Preparedness
Directive.
Impact on the ability of the ADF to protect Australia and fulfil its national security
obligations.
Impact on the ADF’s ability to train and equip for war and for the conduct of
peacetime operations.
Impact on the ability of Defence to develop its capability as detailed in the Defence
White Paper.
Impact on Civil (non defence) Capability as a consideration for shared facilities.
Occupational Health and
Safety (Staff and Public)
Impact on the physical and psychological well being of military and Defence
employees, contractors, communities in Defence regions and the public in general.
Compliance
Impact of failing to comply with regulatory requirements and Defence Policy
statements. Including but not limited to:








Environment and Heritage
Financial Efficiency
Federal;
State;
Territory;
Local;
foreign treaty;
indigenous land use agreements;
Defence Instructions; and
Defence Policy.
Impact on the environment, including contamination, damage to flora and fauna, fire,
noise, soil damage and erosion, green house gas emission, bio-diversity, feral animals
and water quality.
Environmental management in the strategic context of Defence business.
Impact on Heritage listed assets.
An assessment of the potential for increased costs that would be incurred if the
works were not performed in the preferred funding year. This includes costs
directly related to the project itself and any flow on costs that may result if the
works are not performed.
Short-term cost of prevention vs. long-term cost of recovery.
This would also cover reductions in costs and return on investment. i.e. shorter
payback period if work performed now, costs now for long term savings.
Cost estimates should be inclusive of GST.
Personnel
Impact on Military and Defence employees, in the context of staff morale, staff
retention and productivity.
Reputation
Impact on Defence’s reputation in managing the estate, political and media
attention to defence estate matters, community concerns or actions over activities.
Impact on compliance with Government commitments as opposed to specific
government policy/legislation.
9
March 2006
Attachment B – Asset Classification
These asset classification value is defined within DEMS as the Contribution Factor of a
defence Asset.
No.
1
Category
Major
Description and Examples
Major Assets provide a very high level contribution towards
operational capability and are the most critical structures of a
military platform, national security objective or Group objective.
The loss or compromise of a Major Asset would be a major concern
to Australia’s national security, with repercussions such as:
 Very High impact on the overall capability of the ADO; or

Very high danger to many members of the public or the
ADO.
A Major Asset should be located in a security area, protected by an
approved Security Alarm System.
Examples include:
 Critical command, control, intelligence and communications
assets; and

2
Important
Roads, water, electricity and backup electricity for Major
Assets.
Important Assets provide a direct and high level contribution
towards the capability of a military platform, national security
objective or Group objective.
The loss or compromise of an Important Asset would be a high
concern to Australia’s national security, with repercussions such as:
 High impact on the overall capability of the ADO;

High danger to many members of the public or the ADO;

Lengthy lead times to restore extant capabilities;

High embarrassment to the ADO; or

Very high asset replacement costs.
An Important Asset should be located in a security area, protected
by an approved Security Alarm System.
Examples include:
 Essential military working accommodation and healthcare
buildings;

Storage facilities for weapons, ammunition, combustible
materials and medications; and

Roads, water and electricity for Important Assets.
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March 2006
No.
3
Category
Support
Description and Examples
Support Assets perform a capability support function to enable the
efficient and effective functioning of Major and Important Assets.
The loss or compromise of a Support Asset would be a moderate
concern to Australia’s national security, with repercussions such as:
 Short-term impairment of an Important Asset’s functions;

Danger to many members of the public or the ADO;

Lengthy lead times to restore capability support; or

Moderate embarrassment to the ADO.
Examples include:
 Capability support working accommodation;
4
General
Purpose

Essential training and educational assets;

Military vehicle storage;

High-use live-in accommodation; and

Roads, water and electricity for Support Assets and backup
electricity for Important Assets.
General Purpose Assets perform day-to-day base functions and do
not generally require high security protection.
The loss or compromise of a General Purpose Asset could cause the
temporary impairment of a Support Asset’s functions or a moderate
impact to a single capability element (eg base unit).
General Purpose Assets are typically:
 Low in replacement value;

Require regular maintenance;

Require normal fire protection; and

Require normal security protection.
Examples include:
 Office, retail and assembly buildings;
5

General live-in accommodation and detached houses; and

General purpose utilities and engineering structures.
Low Importance Assets are typically:
Low
Importance
 Low in replacement value;

Require occasional maintenance;

Require reduced fire protection; and

Require reduced security protection.
Examples include recreation facilities, monuments, carparks,
general storage, and unused buildings.
11
March 2006
Attachment C. Guidance on consequences relating to Compliance with the EPBC Act.
Further guidance on Compliance specifically relating to the EPBC Act.
SEVERE – 21
MAJOR – 16
NEGLIGIBLE - 1
EPBC GENERIC
EPBC GENERIC
EPBC GENERIC
EPBC GENERIC
EPBC SPECIES
Irreversible or extensive damage or
disturbance to any matter protected
under Part 3, or Part 15 of the EPBC
Act that will likely not recover;
Extensive damage or disturbance to any
matter protected under Part 3 or Part 15
of the EPBC Act that will likely
recover in more than 2 years;
Any damage or disturbance to any
matter protected under Part 3 or Part 15
of the EPBC Act that will likely
recover within 2 years;
Any damage or disturbance to any
matter protected under Part 3 or Part 15
of the EPBC Act that will recover
within 6 months
Killing or injuring individuals or
temporary and minor effects on low
numbers of a species protected under
Part 13 of the EPBC Act
EPBC SPECIES
EPBC SPECIES
EPBC SPECIES
EPBC SPECIES
HERITAGE VALUES
Killing or injuring a more than 50% of
the population of a species protected
under Part 13 of the EPBC Act
Killing or injuring more than 10% of
the population of a species protected
under Part 13 of the EPBC Act
Killing or injuring less than 10% of the
population of a species protected under
Part 13 of the EPBC Act
Killing or injuring less than 1% of the
population of a species protected under
Part 13 of the EPBC Act
EPBC WHALES, DOLPHINS AND
DUGONGS
EPBC WHALES, DOLPHINS AND
DUGONGS
EPBC WHALES, DOLPHINS AND
DUGONGS
EPBC WHALES, DOLPHINS AND
DUGONGS
Damage to the environment or an asset
with heritage values that is immediately
contained on site and will recover fully
in less than 6 months.
Killing or causing a life threatening
injury to an individual. Permanently
displacing a population from any
critical breeding or feeding ground or
migratory pathway
Causing a disabling, but non-lifethreatening, injury to an individual.
Permanently displacing individuals
from an important breeding or feeding
grounds or migratory pathway
Inducing a temporary effect from
which a full recovery is likely within
hours or days
eg: inducing permanent threshold shift
in hearing of a cetacean
eg: boat strike damaging fin or fluke.
Destroying more than 2ha of seagrass
in a dugong protection area
Causing a permanent but superficial
injury to an individual. Causing
temporary disturbance to an individual
that results in a significant behavioural
response that may effect breeding or
feeding.
HERITAGE VALUES
Irreversible or extensive damage is
caused to the values of a place on the
National or Commonwealth Heritage
Lists.
Irreversible or extensive damage is
caused to an indigenous heritage site.
Irreversible or extensive damage
caused to any matter protected under a
relevant environmental or heritage
protection law of a State or Territory.
CONTAMINATION
Contamination levels may result in
acute toxicity to receptors (as defined
in the National Environment Potection
(Assessment of Site Contamination)
Measure)999 (NEPM.
HERITAGE VALUES
Some damage that can be repaired is
caused to the values of a place on the
National or Commonwealth Heritage
Lists.
Irreversible or extensive damage or
disturbance to an environmental asset
or area with heritage values that is not
on any heritage list.
Serious but repairable damage caused
ton indigenous heritage site.
(<5000,000)
CONTAMINATION
Contamination levels may result in
perceived major impacts on receptors
as defined in the NEPM.
12
March 2006
MINOR – 6
MODERATE - 11
eg: boat strike marking an individual,
no observed impact on mobility.
Grounding damaging less than 2ha of
seagrass in a dugong protection area.
HERITAGE VALUES
Some superficial damage (that is
readily repaired) is caused to the values
of a place on the National or
Commonwealth Heritage Lists.
Some irreversible, localized damage or
disturbance to an environmental or
heritage asset or area.
Some superficial and readily repairable
damage is caused to an indigenous
heritage site.
(<$50,000)
CONTAMINATION
Contamination levels may result in
perceived moderate impact on receptors
as defined in the NEPM.
eg: inducing temporary threshold shift
in hearing of a cetacean
HERITAGE VALUES
Damage to the environment or a
heritage asset or area that is
immediately contained on site and will
recover fully in less than 2 years.
(<$10,000)
CONTAMINATION
Contamination levels exceed Health
Investigation Levels (HILs) or
Ecological Investigation Levels (EILs)
as defined by the NEPM.
(<$1,000)
CONTAMINATION
Contamination levels are above
background but below HILs and EILs.
13
March 2006