WELLINGTON EARTHQUAKE INITIAL RESPONSE PLANPLANNING SCENARIO
PURPOSE
The purpose of this scenario is to describe the impacts that could reasonably be expected
from a major (magnitude 7 or greater) earthquake centred about Wellington. This is to serve
as a planning tool to allow planners to prepare their agency’s response to a major
Wellington earthquake.
It should be noted that this scenario leans towards the worst case impacts, rather than the
more likely ones. It is also unlikely that the impacts described will all be felt; any earthquake
affecting the northern part of the affected area to the extent listed will have a lesser effect in
the southern part, and vice-versa.
With major faults traversing the region, and a subduction zone beneath it, the Wellington
Region has significant exposure to a wide range of possible earthquake impacts. While the
epicentre and magnitude might vary, some general consequences of any major Wellington
earthquake will likely include many or all of the following impacts. Therefore, this scenario
focuses on the effects only, rather than specific event detail such as magnitude, depth and
epicentre.
OVERVIEW
A major earthquake has occurred near Wellington. This has caused a large number of
deaths and injuries, and widespread damage in the area from the Hurunui District to the
Wanganui District, and from the Tasman District to the east coast of the North Island (see
attached maps). Damage has impacted critical infrastructure, buildings, businesses, and
lifeline services.
IMPACT & RESPONSE
People summary
Displaced

Approximately 50,000 displaced in the Wellington Region (primarily in Wellington City,
including commuters), with another 2-3,000 displaced across the rest of central New
Zealand.
Missing

An estimated 10,000 people are still missing, mainly in the Wellington region. Most of
these are expected to be alive, but unable to return home.
Fatalities

Approximately 300 initially reported dead, with this toll expected to rise as clearance
operations continue.

The bulk of fatalities (250) are in the Wellington Region.
Injured

Approximately 4,500 people have been reported as seriously injured, though this is
expected to rise.

The bulk of reported injuries (4,000+) are in the Wellington Region.
Trapped
Wellington Earthquake Initial Response Plan- Planning Scenario
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
Approximately 550, almost all (c500) in the Wellington Region.
Palmerston North and Blenheim.
Remainder in
Considerations

NZ USAR teams have not been deployed, and are available under NZ Fire Service
coordination.

Shelter in the Wellington region, where approximately 50,000 people may be displaced.

Movement of commuters trapped in the Wellington CBD back to their homes in the Hutt
Valley, northern suburbs, Porirua and Kapiti will alleviate the requirement for shelter.

There is a requirement for registration of displaced people.
Community infrastructure summary
Hospitals

All hospitals in the Capital and Coast, Hutt Valley and Wairarapa DHBs are damaged
and operating at reduced capacity. They are understaffed, have supply shortfalls and
equipment damage. Patient demands exceed capacities.

Hospitals in the MidCentral, Hawkes Bay and Nelson-Marlborough DHBs have sustained
some damage and have staff disruptions, but are operational.
Medical centres

Medical centres in the Capital and Coast, Hutt Valley and Wairarapa DHBs are being
used as impromptu hospitals. All are severely overloaded and short of staff, equipment
and supplies.
Educational institutions

Schools and other educational institutions in the Wellington Region have been closed
indefinitely. There have also been closures in some parts of the Manawatu-Wanganui,
Hawkes Bay and Marlborough Regions.
Commercial infrastructure

This has not yet been properly assessed, but is expected to be very large in scope and
scale.
Community infrastructure needs

This has not yet been properly assessed, but is expected to be very large in scope and
scale.
Considerations

Coordinating the clearance of specialist care facilities across the country, with emphasis
on trauma and burns facilities.

Patient movement, evacuation, management

Rest homes, special needs
Housing and property summary
Houses and private property
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
There is widespread residential property damage in Wellington City, southern parts of
Lower Hutt, and across the Wellington Region. Numbers are yet to be confirmed. The
reported collapse of a number of buildings containing apartments is of concern.
Commercial property

There has been widespread and severe damage to commercial property, from
Manawatu to Marlborough.

There have been complete and partial building collapses in Palmerston North,
Wairarapa, Levin, Porirua, the Hutt Valley and Blenheim. Wellington CBD is particularly
badly affected, with multiple buildings either collapsed or severely damaged.
Fire

Localised (single structure) fires occur, from Palmerston North to Blenheim.

Some residential and commercial areas of Wellington and the Hutt Valley have several
adjacent buildings on fire.

Loss of water, due to broken pipes, is hampering fire fighting in many areas.
Transport infrastructure summary
Roads closed

Manawatu-Wanganui Region
 SH1: Closures between Bulls and Waikanae
 SH2: Major slips and closures between Woodville and Masterton
 SH3: Major slips and closures in the Manawatu Gorge
 SH56: Closures between Palmerston North and Levin
 SH57: Closures between Palmerston North and Levin
 Hawkes Bay Region
 SH2: Major slips and closures between Woodville and Waipukarau
 Wellington Region
 Major slips and closures on SH1, between Waikanae and Wellington
 Major slips and closures on SH2, between Featherston and Wellington
 Slips and closures on SH58, between Porirua and Upper Hutt
 Marlborough Region
 Major slips and closures on SH1, between Picton and Kaikoura
 Major slips and closures on SH6, between Nelson and Blenheim
 Slips and closures on SH63 between Blenheim and Kawatiri
 Nelson-Tasman Region
 Lane closures on SH6, between Nelson and Murchison
 Major slips and closures on SH60 between Motueka and Takaka
 Canterbury Region
 Major slips and closures on SH1, between Kaikoura and Parnassus
Airport status

Wellington Airport closed, damage to be determined.

Palmerston North Airport damaged, damage to be determined.

Blenheim Airport damaged, damage to be determined.

Ohakea airbase status yet to be determined.

Paraparaumu and Masterton Aerodrome available for helicopter and light aircraft
operations only.
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Port status

Wellington Port wharf facilities badly damaged.
operations to resume is uncertain.

Picton Port is damaged, damage to be determined. Road access is blocked by slips on
SH1.

Nelson, Napier and New Plymouth ports are all operational.
The repair time for even limited
Rail status

The ONTRACK control centre located in central Wellington is damaged, and may not be
operational, affecting national rail operations.

The North Island Main Trunk Railway is closed between Bulls and Wellington by slips
and bridge failures.

The Wairarapa Railway between Wellington and Masterton is closed by slips, bridge
failures and uncertainty about the Rimutuka Tunnel.

The rail line through the Manawatu Gorge is closed by slips.

The South Island Main Trunk Railway is closed between Picton and Kaikoura by slips
and bridge failures.

The inter-island ferry rail link-span at Wellington is damaged and out of use. Liquifaction
has severely restricted access to it
Considerations

Reconnaissance of national and local roads needs to be conducted.

Wellington airport needs to be reopened ASAP, to allow fixed wing aircraft to deliver
passengers and freight.

Wellington harbour needs to be cleared, and the port opened ASAP, to allow bulk freight
movements.

The status of Ohakea, Palmerston North, Fielding, Wanganui and Blenheim
airports/airfields needs to be confirmed ASAP.
Lifeline utilities summary
Electricity

Electrical generation and distribution networks inoperable or degraded between
Marlborough and Palmerston North. There are power outages in;
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
Manawatu District
Tararua District
Palmerston North City
Horowhenua District
All TAs in the Wellington Region
Nelson City
Tasman District
Marlborough District
Kaikoura District
Cook Strait cable damaged, repair time uncertain.
Gas
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
Main gas pipeline to the Wellington Region has been broken in multiple locations.
Supply to all other regions remains intact.
Petroleum

Fuel distribution to the Wellington Region not possible, due to road and port closures.
Wairarapa can be resupplied by road from the Hawkes Bay.

Fuel distribution to the Manawatu-Wanganui Region is affected by closure of SH1.
Resupply from New Plymouth is possible.

Fuel distribution from Napier to Hawkes Bay is unaffected.

Fuel distribution from Nelson to the Nelson-Tasman and Marlborough Regions
operating, with some disruption due to road closures.
Telecommunications

Telecommunications networks are inoperable, overloaded or degraded, between
Kaikoura and Palmerston North.
Water

Wellington Regional water distribution networks largely inoperable. Provision of potable
water from some TA reservoirs, and by tanker and bottles only.

Potable water distribution systems in Horowhenua, Manawatu, southern Hawkes Bay
and Marlborough damaged. Limited operations are possible, but the time for restoration
is uncertain.
Waste water (sewerage)

Wellington Regional wastewater distribution networks largely inoperable. Raw sewerage
is spilling from broken pipes.

Wastewater distribution systems in Horowhenua, Manawatu, southern Hawkes Bay and
Marlborough damaged. Limited operations are possible, but the time for restoration is
uncertain.
Fast Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) supply

FMCG distribution to the Wellington Region not possible, due to road and port closures.
Wairarapa can be resupplied by road from the Hawkes Bay.

FMCG distribution from Palmerston North to the Manawatu-Wanganui affected by
damage to bridges and road closures. Distribution to Hawkes Bay is affected by closure
of the Manawatu Gorge, and re-routing through Taupo.

FMCG distribution from Christchurch to the Nelson-Tasman, Marlborough and
Canterbury Regions operating normally, with some disruption due to road closures.
Considerations

Lifeline Utilities have their own response plans, staff and equipment, and are responding
independently.

Greatest need for lifeline utilities is for helicopters in the affected area to move repair
teams and supplies. Lifeline utilities will arrange for extra staff, equipment and supplies
independently.

Urgent resupply of water tankers, containers, purification equipment and pumps is
needed in the Wellington region.
Environmental summary
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Natural resources

Impact still being determined.
Biodiversity and ecosystems

Impact still being determined.
Waste and pollution

Extensive pollution as a result of damage to industrial sites from Manawatu to
Marlborough and of waste water networks in Wellington City and the Hutt Valley.
Further assessment needed.
Environmental impacts

Extensive landslides across the affected area. Likely landslide dam across Hutt River, in
vicinity of Te Marua.

Uplift/subsidence affecting drainage and causing abnormal localised flooding,
particularly in coastal areas of Petone, Eastern Bays, and Wellington City.

Extensive liquefaction across Hutt Valley, including Wainuiomata and Eastbourne,
Wellington City, and Porirua.
Rural summary
Farming community/agriculture

Impact still being determined.
Rural needs

Impact still being determined.
Economy
Individual

Impacts to individuals are likely to be great, but have not yet been quantified.
Businesses

Impacts to businesses are likely to be great, but have not yet been quantified.
Macroeconomic

The macroeconomic impacts are yet to be measured by Treasury, the Reserve Bank
and MED.
Emergency Response
Control

Most Emergency Operation Centres, particularly in the Wellington Region, have staff
shortages; some are damaged and inoperable.

Emergency communications in the Wellington Region are dependant on functioning Sat
Coms, VHF, UHF, and HF radio. They are also dependant on alternative power
systems.
Government Response
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
Government functions, both central and local, are limited due to missing personnel,
building damage, and the loss of normal power and telecommunications, the latter
including the internet.
Attachments
1. Wellington Earthquake Plan- Scenario Map 1- National
2. Wellington Earthquake Plan - Scenario Map 2- Manawatu-Wanganui
3. Wellington Earthquake Plan - Scenario Map 3- Hawkes Bay
4. Wellington Earthquake Plan - Scenario Map 4- Wellington
5. Wellington Earthquake Plan - Scenario Map- Marlborough/Nelson-Tasman
6. Wellington Earthquake Plan - Scenario Map 6- Canterbury
Note: The symbols used on these maps are based on the US FEMA symbol set, which has
been adopted by the NZ Fire Service.
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