WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION
________________________________________
RA V TROPICAL CYCLONE COMMITTEE FOR THE
SOUTH PACIFIC AND THE SOUTH-EAST INDIAN
OCEAN
TWELFTH SESSION
ALOFI, NIUE, 11 TO 17 JULY 2008
RA V/TCC-XII/Doc. 8
(17.VI.2008)
________
ITEM 6.1
Original: ENGLISH
REVIEW OF THE TECHNICAL PLAN AND ITS
IMPLEMENTATION PROGRAMME
Meteorological Component
(Submitted by the Secretariat)
Summary and Purpose of Document
This document provides information and proposals related to various aspects of
the meteorological component to assist the Committee in its review of this
component of its Technical Plan, which is aimed at strengthening the tropical
cyclone forecasting and warning system.
ACTION PROPOSED
The Tropical Cyclone Committee is invited to:
(a)
Note the information given in this document and that provided by participants at the
session;
(b)
Review the meteorological component of its Technical Plan and its Implementation
Programme (see reference), taking into account the proposals made, and recommend
specific additions and other amendments to it, including indication of items to be given
priority attention during 2008-2009; and,
(c)
Decide further action to be taken to promote the improvements in the forecasting and
warning of tropical cyclones and on the supporting meteorological observation,
telecommunications and data processing facilities and arrangements.
____________
Reference:
Technical Plan
RA V/TCC-XII/Doc. 8, p. 2
6.1
METEOROLOGICAL COMPONENT (Agenda item 6.1)
GLOBAL OBSERVING SYSTEM
REGIONAL BASIC SYNOPTIC NETWORK (RBSN)
6.1.1. The Regional Basic Synoptic Network (RBSN), being a minimum regional requirement to
permit members to fulfil their responsibilities within the WMO World Weather Watch (WWW)
Programme, has continued to provide a fundamental basis for weather analysis and forecast and
for tropical cyclone warning services in Region V. The countries of the region are contributing to
the implementation of the RBSN by operating 389 surface synoptic and 93 upper-air stations, a
total of 482 stations which remained unchanged during the intersessional period. Of the above
482 stations, the number of AWSs (194) remained almost unchanged with the addition of only one
station during the same period. It should also be noted that the overall status of the number of
observations implemented by the RBSN stations remained stable at around 85 per cent for surface
and 66 per cent for upper-air observations.
6.1.2. The Annual Global Monitoring (AGM) of the operation of the WWW provides information
on the performance level of the observing and telecommunications systems. A summary of the
analysis following the results of the monitoring carried out in October during the years 2006 - 2007,
showing the availability of the SYNOP and TEMP reports from the respective RBSN stations in the
area of the RA V Tropical Cyclone Committee, are provided in the table below. It should be noted
that although the availability of the SYNOP and TEMP reports from some areas of the region was
not yet satisfactory, the overall percentage of reports received had shown a positive increase
during the intersessional period. During the 2007 AGM exercise, no SYNOP reports were received
from Tokelau and no TEMP reports were received from Nauru and Vanuatu.
RBSN stations in the area of the RA V Tropical Cyclone Committee
Annual Global Monitoring (AGM) of the Operation of the WWW availability of
SYNOP / TEMP data at MTN centres (October 2006 - 2007)
Country / Area
American Samoa
Australia
Cook Islands
East Timor
Fiji
French Polynesia
Indonesia
Kiribati
Marshall Islands
Micronesia, Federated. S
Nauru
New Caledonia
New Zealand
Niue
Palau
Papua New Guinea
Samoa
Solomon Islands
Number of surface stations /
Percentage of SYNOP
reports received
2006
4
25%
129
75%
7
45%
2
11%
12
68%
9
89%
60
80%
5
40%
8
33%
13
44%
1
92%
6
82%
30
96%
1
98%
1
0%
11
39%
7
14%
4
44%
2007
4
25%
129
77%
7
73%
2
47%
12
58%
9 100%
60
92%
5
37%
8
35%
13
51%
1 100%
6
67%
30
97%
1
67%
1 100%
11
17%
7
25%
4
50%
Number of upper-air stations /
Percentage of TEMP reports
received
2006
1
97%
35
55%
1
50%
1
50%
6
57%
12
52%
1
43%
2
78%
3 100%
1
0%
1 100%
5
79%
1 100%
3
4%
1
0%
2007
1 100%
35
60%
1
0%
1
50%
6
58%
12
73%
1
50%
2
48%
3 100%
1
0%
1 100%
5
77%
1
97%
3
31%
1
20%
RA V/TCC-XII/Doc. 8, p. 3
Tokelau
Tonga
Tuvalu
UK/NZ (Pitcairn Island)
USA (Islands - Pacific)
Vanuatu
Total
1 100%
5
82%
4
67%
1
95%
12
33%
6
76%
389
72%
1
5
4
1
12
6
389
0%
78%
60%
85%
33%
90%
75%
1
2
1
93
0%
98%
0%
59%
1
2
1
93
43%
100%
0%
61%
AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS
6.1.3. As the global AMDAR Programme continues to expand into new areas, more operational
programmes have commenced reporting, and more and more countries and regions are exploring
the possibility of developing their own AMDAR program to enhance their upper-air observing
networks. The volume of data disseminated on the GTS continues to increase and is now peaking
at around 240,000 to 250,000 observations per day. The humidity-water vapour sensors
technology is now closer to becoming an integrated operational system with the USA and
E-AMDAR trials due to release final reports into the performance of the WVSS-II sensor in late
2008. The AMDAR community, with the assistance of the WMO, has been working towards the
development of the WVSS-II water vapour sensor and an AMDAR software solution as standard
part numbers for all aircraft makes and models. The AMDAR Panel, through the SecretaryGeneral, appealed to the WMO Members for additional contributions to help fund the ARINC
620V4 software development project that would see AMDAR software made available on all new
and existing Airbus A320 and A330 / A340 aircraft. However, this strategy has proved
unsuccessful in obtaining the necessary funding needed for this task. It has been identified that
the future work programme of the AMDAR Panel must include developing a strategy to implement
a standard suite of the AMDAR software and hardware solutions that could be made available to
all NMHSs. As part of the future work programme, the AMDAR Panel will also continue to work in
close collaboration with all aircraft manufacturers and related industries to assist in the
development of the AMDAR software.
6.1.4. The South-West Pacific region currently has only two operational AMDAR Programs,
Australia and New Zealand. New Zealand is currently operating six selected A320 aircraft flying
the trans-Tasman routes between New Zealand and Australia, and one B737-300 flying domestic
routes within New Zealand. The current Australian operational AMDAR fleet consists of 8 B767
and 30 B747 Qantas-operated Boeing aircraft. At present, New Zealand is the only country in the
South-West Pacific with profiles of the AMDAR data all other AMDAR data in the South-West
Pacific region is on-route, from Australia to the USA and Australia and New Zealand.
6.1.5. The AMDAR Panel has recognised that the South-West Pacific area should be considered
as the highest priority for a new regional project. Both the United States and France are
considering financial and logistic support for this project, which would also benefit the current WMO
/ ICAO special implementation project for the region. Both Australia and New Zealand have
indicated that they would also provide support for the implementation of a pilot project for the
region.
6.1.6. The Australian AMDAR Programme is currently developing the AMDAR AAAV3 AMDAR
software based on the ARINC 620V4Supplent 5 software specification. This improved version of
software will also have the ability of providing humidity data with incorporation of humidity sensing
technology, like the WVSSII water vapour senor. The development of this software and inclusion
onto other aircraft makes and models in the Australian and other AMDAR programs in the region
have the potential of providing increased AMDAR observations for the region.
RA V/TCC-XII/Doc. 8, p. 4
MARINE AND OCEAN METEOROLOGICAL OBSERVATIONS
6.1.7. The Members of the Region continue to provide extensive support for ocean observation
programmes such as the Voluntary Observing Ship (VOS), the Ship Of Opportunity Programme
(SOOP), the Automated Shipboard Aerological Programme (ASAP), the Global Sea Level
Observing System (GLOSS), the Data Buoy Co-operation Panel (DBCP), and the Argo profiling
floats. They also provide support to climatic projects like the Marine Climatological Summaries
Scheme (MCSS), the Global Temperature Salinity Profile Programme (GTSPP), and the VOS
Climate Project (VOSClim).
6.1.8. Dramatic progress has been made in the implementation of the ocean observing networks
in the last decade. The plan was based on the system targets identified in the ocean chapter of
the GCOS Implementation Plan for the Global Observing System for Climate in support of the
UNFCCC (GCOS-92). Overall, the ocean in situ observing system is now 60% implemented, with
the JCOMM plan driving to full implementation, in principle by 2012. All data are being made freely
available to all Members in real-time. However, completion will require substantial additional yearly
investment by the Member / Member States.
6.1.9. The global surface buoy network is now essentially complete and being sustained (1250
units). Efforts are being made to increase the number of surface drifters reporting sea level
pressure (583 units in May 2008). A recent technological development has lead to the production
of cost-effective surface drifters equipped with thermistor strings and designed to be deployed in
hurricane conditions. However, no such drifters are being deployed operationally in area of
interest from the Regional Association. The Argo profiling float programme reached completion in
November 2007 (3000 units) and is now providing essential upper ocean thermal data for Tropical
Cyclones research, monitoring and forecast activities.
6.1.10. The Tropical Pacific Ocean array is now complete, and salinity is available nearly on every
TAO mooring site. There are currently 18 sites occupied in the PIRATA array. Progress continues
towards the development of a 47-element Indian Ocean Observing System (IndOOS), a multinational, multi-platform network designed to support climate forecasting and research. The array
has been named the Research Moored Array for African-Asian-Australian Monsoon Analysis and
Prediction (RAMA). In 2007, the number of ATLAS moorings in the RAMA is was 32% complete.
The 2008 scheduled deployments will increase this number to 43%. Progress has been made
towards multi-national sustained support for the RAMA via a Memoranda of Understanding (MOU)
and Implementing Arrangements between the United States and India, the United States and
Indonesia, and the Peoples Republic of China and Indonesia. An existing MOU between the
United States and Japan is being updated to include the RAMA. NextGeneration ATLAS moorings
provide optional enhanced measurements, which include precipitation, short and long wave
radiation, barometric pressure, salinity, and ocean currents. High temporal resolution (10-min or
less record interval) measurements are available in delayed-mode.
6.1.11. The Ship Of Opportunity Programme (SOOP) also provides for valuable upper-ocean
thermal data through 35 high resolution and frequently repeated XBT lines now fully or partially
occupied (target 45 lines, including 6 operated in both modes). The tide gauge network is currently
62% complete (105 units); VOSClim programme now targets a sustained network of some 250
ships (instead of 200) voluntary observing ships delivering high quality observational data for
climate related applications is now almost completed although efforts remain to be made to provide
for more observations, as well as the required additional quality information and metadata. Efforts
are being made to increase the number of Automatic Weather Stations installed on ships to
improve real-time reporting for weather forecasting and climate.
RA V/TCC-XII/Doc. 8, p. 5
6.1.12. Implementation of marine observing network in the Region has continued to expand
thanks to prominent role of Members in the region. The Tropical Moored Buoy network is being
extended across the Indian Ocean (15 of 47 sites have been deployed thus far) to complete
coverage of the equatorial regions of the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian Oceans - the heat engine of
global climate and weather patterns.
METEOROLOGICAL SATELLITES
6.1.13. The space-based observing system includes three constellations comprising operational
geostationary satellites, operational Low-Earth Orbit (LEO) satellites and environmental Research
and Development (R&D) satellites, respectively. Operational weather forecasting relies heavily on
space-based observations acquired by the operational geostationary and LEO satellites, namely
for cloud imagery and characterization, vertical temperature and humidity sounding, atmospheric
motion vectors, sea surface temperature, surface wind fields and sea state. The R & D satellites
also contribute to these observations with advanced complementary instrumentation.
6.1.14. With respect to tropical cyclones specifically, satellite observations are particularly useful
for the detection, monitoring and structure characterization of tropical cyclones and for predicting
their evolution. Of particular relevance, are the permanent visible and infrared imagery from
geostationary spacecraft, microwave sounding from LEO (e.g., with AMSU and MHS instruments)
to derive total precipitable water, microwave imagery associated with active microwave sensors for
precipitation rate (like TRMM and the future GPM), as well as scatterometry altimetry and / or
microwave imagery to derive ocean surface-wind fields (e.g., with Quikscat, Jason-1, or
METOP/ASCAT) and sea-state. Numerical experiments performed in 2005 also suggested that
cloud track wind vectors derived from visible and infrared imagery over the Polar Regions (e.g.,
from Aqua / MODIS instrument) have a significant impact to improve the accuracy of hurricane
track forecasts.
6.1.15. A status of satellite missions contributing to the Global Observing system, which is
provided on the following webpage: http://cgms.wmo.int/CGMS_page_3_new.html is maintained by
the WMO Space Programme Office. Current operational geostationary and polar-orbiting
meteorological satellites include in particular: GOES-11 (135°W), NOAA-17 and NOAA-18
operated by the United States; MTSAT-1R (140° E) operated by Japan; Meteosat-7 (57.5 °E), and
METOP-A operated by EUMETSAT; FY-2C (105 °E) and FY-1D operated by China and Kalpana
(74 °E) and INSAT-3A (93.5° E) operated by India. A new generation polar orbiting satellite FY-3A
launched by China is currently under commissioning and several other launches are expected in
2008.
6.1.16. Space agencies are also operating a number of environmental R & D satellites that
provide a valuable contribution to operational tropical cyclone related activities, in addition to their
research or demonstration purpose. In particular, NASA’s Aqua, Terra, and QuikScat missions;
NASA-CNES Jason-1 mission; NASA-JAXA’s TRMMM; ESA’s Envisat, and ERS-2 missions, or
China’s HY-1B Ocean monitoring satellite. There are also plans for missions of interest to tropical
cyclone monitoring and detection, such as the ISRO’s Oceansat-2 to be launched in 2008, the
NASA-JAXA GPM mission, or the ISRO-CNES Megha-Tropiques and SARAL missions. The
relevant agencies have been invited to update and notify to the WMO the list of their missions
which can be considered as contributions to the space-based global observing system. However,
to date, confirmation has not yet been received from all these agencies.
6.1.17. In response to tropical cyclone monitoring requirements, the United States of America
have decided to extend the operation of the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) until
the end of 2009. Concerning the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Programme, the launch
of its core satellite is planned for the end of 2013. The availability of sea-surface-wind
observations over the next decade is planned to rely on the EUMETSAT Metop mission with
ASCAT only, as long the availability of other data from relevant R & D missions is not guaranteed.
RA V/TCC-XII/Doc. 8, p. 6
6.1.18. The Integrated Global Dissemination Service (IGDDS) Project is progressing. One
objective of this project is to implement a quasi-global coverage of the WMO Regions by multipurpose telecommunications satellite-based broadcasting services using the Digital Video
Broadcast (DVB) standard. This international standard, which is not specific to meteorological
applications, is widely used by digital television networks. It allows cost-efficient transmission of
large data rates and requires very limited investments on the user side. The DVB broadcast
services implemented through the IGDDS Project, and data exchange arrangements between
satellite operators, should provide the users with access to satellite data from different satellite
operators through a single receiving device, along the one-stop-shop concept. Such a service is
currently provided by the EUMETSAT with its EUMETCAST service that currently covers Europe,
Africa, the Americas, and the western part of Asia. Based on a similar approach, China has
implemented the FengYunCast system, covering a large part of RA V, and is planning to make the
system available for the WMO Members throughout the Asia-Pacific area.
____________