WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION
Supporting the AMDAR Program
Business Case 2015
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
This document presents and describes the case for supporting the AMDAR program
of the World Meteorological Organization, a specialized agency of the United
Nations dedicated to weather, water and climate. The AMDAR (Aircraft
Meteorological DAta Relay) program, a partnership between the private sector,
government entities and the WMO, delivers a range of economic, social and
environmental benefits to stakeholders across the following sectors:

Environmental protection

Agriculture

Health

Disaster risk reduction

Aviation
This document is intended for use by organizations that may be interested in
participating in or supporting the program either regionally or at the global level.
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I.
AMDAR OVERVIEW
BACKGROUND
The Aircraft Meteorological DAta Relay (AMDAR), a program overseen by the World
Meteorological Organization (WMO), fosters partnerships between airline companies, weather
monitoring and forecasting organizations and other relevant stakeholders. The program uses
commercial aircraft’s existing sensors, avionics and global telecommunications systems to
gather, analyze and disseminate data that improves the frequency of weather reporting and
the accuracy of weather forecasting.1
The AMDAR system uses sensors on commercial aircraft, such as Korean Air or South African
Airways passenger planes, to collect and distribute key meteorological data (wind speed and
direction, temperature, etc.) during flight, for improved weather reporting and forecasting
worldwide.
Automated weather observations by aircraft were first used in 1978, with the first operational
AMDAR program beginning in 1986 with just 5 aircraft. Growth has been rapid, as seen in Figure
1 below. To date, the program has grown to include 39 participating airlines and over 3800
commercial aircraft worldwide. Participating airlines include American Airlines, Air Vanuatu,
Korean Air, Lufthansa, Shandong Airlines, British Airways, KLM, Cathay Pacific, South African
Airways, and Qantas Airways.2
Figure 1 – Global aircraft observations – average of daily report totals3
The growing number of airline partners and AMDAR-equipped aircraft within existing airline
fleets are a testament to the value of the program for airlines and the airline industry overall.
AMDAR is recognized by the WMO as a critical component of the WMO Integrated Global
Observing System (WIGOS), supporting the World Weather Watch (WWW) Programme.
Compared with other weather monitoring and reporting systems, AMDAR is also a highly cost
effective solution, in most cases, requiring only the deployment of an avionics software
application. For example, an average AMDAR program, utilizing 30 aircraft, is estimated to be
no more than 20% of the cost of a comparable radiosonde program (a system which utilizes
1
WIGOS – The Benefits of AMDAR data to Meteorology and Aviation Report 2014 (“WIGOS Benefits Report”)
2
AMDAR program website: http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/GOS/ABO/AMDAR//AMDAR_Airlines.html
3 http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/GOS/ABO/data/statistics/aircraft_obs_cmc_mthly_ave_daily_reports_by_type.jpg
3
weather balloons and telemetry instruments to collect atmospheric data).4 Indeed, a recent
Met Office cost-benefit analysis on different observing systems 5 found AMDAR to give the
highest impact per cost on a global numerical weather prediction model.
AMDAR PROGRAM OPERATION
AMDAR utilizes aircraft’s onboard instruments and avionics systems to provide accurate
meteorological measurements, such as air temperature and winds. This data is transmitted to
the ground usually by VHF radio or satellite, and from ground stations to meteorological
processing centers via the airline’s data processing center 6 . Information on the following
parameters is collected at all phases of flight7 as standard:
– Altitude (pressure derived)
– Temperature
– Wind speed
– Wind direction
Additional parameters which can be optionally collected by participating airlines include:
– Humidity
– Turbulence
These additional parameters require further software application functionality (and in the case
of humidity, sensor hardware) – but can improve weather forecasting even further. AMDAR
measurements are compiled into a standard message format and transmitted to the partner
national weather center, or National Meteorological and Hydrological Service (NMHS), in as
near to real-time as possible.
Figure 2 – Schematic of the basic AMDAR system*
* Reflects major service providers contracted by participating airlines. National service providers, such as Brazil and
China, also participate in the program.
More detailed information on the AMDAR observing system is available from the WMO
AMDAR website (http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/GOS/ABO/AMDAR/About.html).
4
This assumes the AMDAR program is equipped with humidity sensors such as WVSS-II. WIGOS Benefits Report
5
Eyre, J. and R. Reid, 2014: Cost-benefit studies of observing systems. Met Office, UK
6
Data transmitted from aircraft using ACARS (Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System). AMDAR
Coverage and Recruitment Study 2013
7 EUMETNET AMDAR presentation at Royal Meteorological Society 2013
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II.
BENEFITS OF AMDAR AND IMPROVED FORECASTING
How AMDAR Improves Forecasting
AMDAR observations are used in the production, verification and assessment of predictive
weather models and forecast products and diagnostics, the results of which contribute to an
improvement in model performance and predictive skill – and also to helping forecasts
continuously improve. AMDAR data has been proven effective in improving the quality and
accuracy of weather reports – reducing forecast errors by up to 20%.
AMDAR data has become the third most important data set globally8 for improving 24 hour
forecasts – and the data source with the most consistent impact. Further, AMDAR is unique as
the only source of in situ upper air data taken throughout the day (rather than at set times)
providing both temperature and wind observations9. AMDAR also plays an important role in
verifying forecasts and the models used to create them, in particular when the output of a
model has to be corrected on the basis of recent AMDAR information.
Aviation and public weather forecasters also make use of AMDAR data for both the
verification and updating of forecasts in the shorter-term and in the periods between updates
of forecasts based on predictive models (usually made every 6 or 12 hours). This advantage
and resulting enhancement to forecast skill is derived from the high temporal availability of
AMDAR data (often as frequent as one or more vertical profiles per hour).10 The data continues
to have a positive impact on forecasts up to 48 hours out.
The accuracy, high reporting volume and frequency and timeliness of AMDAR data make it
an important factor in improved weather monitoring and prediction, which has a wide range
of benefits and beneficiaries – both including and beyond the aviation industry.
Improvements in forecasts, enabled by AMDAR data, deliver a wide range of economic, social
and environmental benefits for participating organizations, countries, and regions. At the
national level, AMDAR-enabled reporting allows public, private and civil society organizations
to plan and respond more reliably to impacts of weather-related events. In rural Africa alone,
it is estimated that over 700 million poor people are negatively impacted by the lack of reliable
weather information. 11 Thus, AMDAR-enabled weather reporting presents significant
opportunities and benefits to:





The Environment
Agriculture
Health
Disaster Risk Reduction
Aviation
8
Taking satellite observations as a single data set
9
Petersen, R. A., 2014: On the current impact and future benefits of AMDAR observations in operational forecasts
10
WIGOS Benefits Report
11
Weather Info for All Concept Paper, WMO, 2008
5
1. Benefits to the Environment
AMDAR data, used to improve weather reporting and forecasting, can support airlines in
reducing their annual fuel burn, which in turn results in reduced carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions.
South African Airways estimates that for every 1000kg of fuel consumed by aircraft, 3100kg of
CO2 is emitted. Over a one-year period, South African Airways was able to reduce its fuel
consumption using pre- and in-flight route optimization, using the AMDAR data, by 600,000 kg.
In turn, this reduced the airline’s CO2emissions by over 2 million kg, or 2000 tons of carbon
dioxide that year.12
Other AMDAR-enabled efficiencies, which have environmental benefits, include the use of
continuous descent approach, described later, which reduces both noise and CO 2 emissions;
and better targeted use of deicing fluid based on improved forecasting, reducing the
environmental impact of operating a plane in cold weather.
Additionally, AMDAR data contributes to regional and global efforts to measure and monitor
environmental and climatological patterns and trends. Particularly in regions where upper air
data is currently scarce but aviation traffic is present, the development of AMDAR will be vital
to studying and better understanding the mechanisms for and impacts of climate change at
both the regional and global levels.
Furthermore, AMDAR observations are made at altitudes of 200 – 400 hPa (7 - 12 kms) when
aircraft are at cruising elevations and it is at this level where observations are highly relevant
for the study of the variability and change in water vapour that are key to understanding
climate change13. Should AMDAR be expanded globally, it would assist greatly in assembling
a global climatology of atmospheric humidity.
2. Benefits to Agriculture
Better forecasting enables more efficient use of agricultural inputs, and can ensure lower crop
losses due to extreme weather or natural disasters. Increased accuracy in forecasting also
enables the agricultural sector to optimize the post-harvest supply chain.
Better temperature and wind information, which influence the migration of locusts, can be
used to support (early warning for) locust migration. Locust, in particular the Desert Locust,
“poses the greatest threat of all locusts to humans because hopper bands and adults swarms
can rapidly arise and migrate, potentially threatening food security in some 60 countries in
Africa, the Middle East and Asia”.14 Since very few wind data providing systems are available
in Africa, the expansion of AMDAR can be beneficial in seasonal locust migration forecasting.
With AMDAR data less available over parts of the world where agriculture plays a larger role in
national economies, more direct links between AMDAR data and agricultural benefits are
difficult to draw. What is clear, however, is the benefit AMDAR has to forecasts – and the
benefits that improved forecasts have to agriculture.
12
South African Airways AMDAR Business Case
AMDAR and Climate, R. Boers and J.P van der Meulen, KNMI, Netherlands, May 2011
14 Yale F&ES Bulletin 103
13
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The WMO reports that use of weather information can increase agricultural productivity by
20%. In India, the Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security
provides improved rainfall data to an insurance company that offers weather insurance to
over 50,000 farmers.15
3. Benefits to Health
Using improved weather information, governments, communities and health NGOs can better
prevent the spread of climate-sensitive diseases such as cholera, dengue and meningitis.
Rainfall predictions are currently used in East Africa to predict outbreaks of Rift Valley Fever (a
mosquito-borne virus) – scientists use weather data to create monthly risk maps of the disease.
16
Again, direct benefit flow from AMDAR to health benefits are difficult to draw given the current
coverage of the program. However, in the US, moisture data provided by AMDAR have shown
short-range forecast impacts larger than from any other moisture observations. This has
enhanced prediction of both the timing and location of precipitation events 17.
Annually, approximately 1 million lives are claimed by weather- and climate-sensitive diseases
– most of these are children under the age of 5 in developing countries. It is estimated that
23,000 lives could be saved each year through improvements to health resulting from more
accurate weather monitoring and forecasting.18
4. Benefits to Disaster Risk Reduction
Accurate weather predictions can improve prediction of the scale, location, and severity of
extreme weather events, and trigger preventive responses to severe weather and natural
disasters. According to the World Bank, between 1970 and 2010, natural hazards were
responsible for the deaths of 3.3 million people. 19 In 2011 alone, approximately 206 million
people were affected by natural disasters, with an economic impact of USD$366 billion.20
Using weather data can reduce human and economic losses from floods, droughts, storms,
and wildfires. In 2008 the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies
(IFRC) used seasonal precipitation forecasts to prepare in advance for floods in West and
Central Africa. 21 IFRC was able to meet victims’ needs within 24-48 hours of flooding,
compared to 40 days the year prior, and the cost of flood response per beneficiary was also
33% lower than in 2006/2007.
A recent study has shown that AMDAR data had a greater impact than any other data source
on improving forecasts of the location and timing of landfall of Hurricane Sandy in 2012 –
double the impact of balloon-carried weather probes (rawinsondes).22
15
“Better rainfall data means Indian farmers have better insurance against crop failure,” Research Program on
Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security, 2013
16 “Rift Valley Fever,” WHO website, 2014
17
WMO analysis from upcoming paper
18
Weather Info for All Concept Paper, WMO, 2008
19
Weather and Climate Resilience Report, World Bank 2013
20
UNISDRE Report 2011
21
Early Warning, Early Action - Evaluation of IFRC West and Central Africa Zone Preparedness and Response. IFRC,
2008
22 WMO analysis, based on Hoover, Brett T.; Velden, C. S. and Langland, R. H. to NOAA Annual Hurricane Workshop.
Miami, FL. https://ams.confex.com/ams/31hurr/webprogram/manuscript/paper243960/7A.3_abstract.pdf
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5. Benefits to Aviation and the Airline Industry
Improved forecasting services and meteorological products, resulting from the provision of
AMDAR data and its inclusion in predictive meteorological models, can have significant
positive impact on aviation operations. Examples of weather conditions where improved
weather information, owing to AMDAR data, can play a significant role for airlines, airports and
air traffic control are23:
-
-
Thunderstorm genesis, location and severity
Additional and improved wind information near airports
Detection of zero-degree level (freezing rain)
Fog formation, location and duration
Turbulence location and intensity
Conditions leading to aircraft icing
By providing more frequent and accurate insight into the above conditions, AMDAR data
allows stakeholders in the aviation industry to better prepare for weather patterns and
changes in order to improve their operations – and ultimately reduce costs.
More specifically, AMDAR-enabled reporting and forecasting have a wide range of benefits
for both individual airlines as well as the airline industry overall. These include:
23
-
More efficient flight operations: optimized flight plans to avoid turbulent weather and
unplanned diversions for reduced fuel consumption, minimized wear and tear on
aircraft thereby increasing their useful life and reducing maintenance costs
-
Reduced carbon footprint: lower aircraft fuel burn reduces CO2 emissions, which
reduces both emissions costs and environmental damage, as well as improving
corporate reputation
-
Increased safety and passenger comfort: improved route planning allows aircraft to
avoid inclement weather which threaten passenger and crew safety, reduces
unplanned diversions resulting in fewer delays and cancellations, and reduces airport
and customer service costs thereby increasing customer satisfaction and airline
patronage
WIGOS Benefits Report
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“At about 1200c UTC on 6 February 1998 the Miami Centre Weather Service Unit (CWSU) was
notified that an airliner had encountered sustained, strong headwinds over the Atlantic that
were not taken into account when the plane was fuelled in Italy. The pilot was concerned
that they might suffer fuel exhaustion en route. He needed an altitude that offered
substantially smaller headwinds because he was approaching critical fuel. Fortunately recent
information collected by AMDAR reporting aircraft showed a flight track over the Bahamas
less than one hour old with headwinds 40 knots (21 m s-1) less than the winds that the airliner
was reporting. Controllers immediately assigned the airliner to that altitude and flight path
and the aircraft was able to complete the flight without incident.”
The availability of AMDAR data is conservatively estimated to have saved this airline over
$10,000 in this one case alone and potentially averted a significant incident. Fuel savings from
avoiding an extra descent and ascent for diversion is typically in the range of $3,000. Extra
cost of ground support at the diversion point, crew duty limits, passenger accommodations,
extra airline operations support, and other costs contribute the remaining.
Ref. Bulletin AMS, 84, pp 203-216
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III. THE FUTURE OF AMDAR
The AMDAR program has experienced significant growth in recent years. As of October 2014,
nearly 700,000 AMDAR aircraft observations were reported globally, representing a nearly 75%
increase over the 2013 observation levels.
However, AMDAR participation is currently concentrated in Europe, North America, East Asia
and Australasia, resulting in frequent and high quality observations benefitting a range of
players in these well-developed markets.
Large areas where aircraft-based observations are still relatively infrequent have significant
potential for improved weather forecasting. Figure 3 shows vertical profile coverage (data
collected during ascent and descent) at 528 airports worldwide, while Figure 4 shows a day’s
worth of observations, highlighting differences in data concentration across regions.24
Figure 3 – Vertical Profile data coverage, January 26, 2014




Yellow = less
than 1 profile
per day
Green = 1-7
profiles per day
Blue
=
8-24
profiles per day
Purple = greater
than 24 profiles
per day
Figure 4 – Two-dimensional global aircraft-based observations coverage, March 9, 2015
24
WMO AMDAR data statistics - http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/GOS/ABO/data/ABO_Data_Statistics.html
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As illustrated in the figures above, significant scope exists to increase aircraft-based
meteorological observations throughout Latin America, Africa, and large areas of Central and
South Asia where data is relatively sparse.
The AMDAR program has the potential to add significant value to weather reporting in these
regions for a relatively small cost and with far-reaching benefits for private sector, government
and civil society actors, as detailed in Section II of this report.
AMDAR Expansion
AMDAR expansion into the data-sparse regions will yield greater incremental benefits for
developing and emerging markets, which in many cases are more vulnerable to weatherrelated phenomena than developed economies. Thus, over the coming years, WMO looks to
expand the AMDAR program particularly into these regions.
WMO has adopted a regional approach for developing and implementing the AMDAR
program, aiming to fulfill each region’s specific requirements and is now looking for
governments and organizations who share the program’s aims to contribute to and benefit
from this expansion.
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IV. SUPPORTING THE AMDAR PROGRAM
While AMDAR operation requires participation from airline companies and National
Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) in particular, AMDAR expansion into datasparse regions will also require support from and collaboration among a number of additional
stakeholder groups – some of whom may incur additional costs to participate.
Airline Companies that transmit collected data during flights to partner NMHS will benefit from
improved weather forecasts and boost their public perception through participation. This may
require a nominal investment in the program to enable participation; and for airlines in areas
not covered by VHF, potentially increased costs to transmit AMDAR data via satellite.
NMHSs that process the data to improve their weather forecasting, benefit from improved
quality and frequency of meteorological data, and reduced forecast errors. Participating may
require new capabilities and personnel training, and potentially investment in new equipment
and communication links.
Airports and Air Traffic Control, which could use AMDAR-based products to manage airline
traffic and altitude, as well as runway selection, would see improved coordination of air traffic
resulting in an increase of overall capacity and a reduction in congestion. This would lead to
fewer delays, reduced airport and fuel costs, and increased passenger safety. As with NMHSs,
participating may require new capabilities and personnel training, and potentially investment
in new equipment and communications links.
Aviation authorities, who can oversee, promote or potentially mandate participation in the
AMDAR program, would see the benefits to aviation as well as broader socio-economic
benefits outlined above.
Other stakeholders, including Data Service Providers (who collect the AMDAR data from
aircraft and relay the data to airline or met service data processing centers), Governments
(who can participate directly by supporting the NMHSs’ participation and using their reports,
as well as promoting participation and the program’s benefits more broadly), and other
Funders (who can provide grants or other financial support to help initiate, operate, or raise
awareness of benefits of the AMDAR program) will also see benefits from the program, as
described in previous chapters.
Given the cost-effectiveness of the AMDAR system, and the broad range of socio-economic
benefits that can be realized by improved weather forecasting (enabled by AMDAR data),
there is great potential for public, private and third sector organizations to work together.
The WMO is therefore looking to partner with organizations that can support the expansion of
the AMDAR program into the data-sparse regions described above, including Africa, Asia and
Latin America. Partner organizations can support the program in a number of ways, based on
their capacity, existing relationships, and areas of expertise. AMDAR program support can fall
into any of the following key areas:
1. Supporting NMHSs’ Participation
Organizations whose operations or constituents may be affected by weather or
climate-related events or patterns can directly support NMHSs in their participation in
the program, utilize AMDAR-enabled weather reports, and work with NMHSs to develop
new or optimized products to better meet their needs. This could include organizations
in sectors such as agriculture, aviation, health, utilities, disaster risk reduction, and
environmental protection. Partners can also support NMHSs in developing the
technical capabilities required to set up and operate new AMDAR programs.
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Partners can support the program by:




Supporting an NMHS (or group of NMHSs) directly in the technical development
of a new country or regional AMDAR program, such as the setup of regional
data processing centers and/or developing requisite communications
infrastructure
Building the capacity of an NMHS to operate an AMDAR program, through
process design, implementation, and talent/skills development
Collaborating with NMHSs to develop new or customized weather reports
Utilizing weather reports to better inform operations on an ongoing basis
2. Funding AMDAR Expansion
AMDAR expansion into developing and emerging markets may require funding to
meet resource gaps or support the stakeholders listed above in financing their
participation. Funds will be needed to support awareness raising activities, technical
development, and collaboration among key stakeholders.
Partners can provide funds for:



Communications infrastructure installation and operation
Data communications charges, particularly satellite communications fees that
some airlines may not initially be able to cover – perhaps through an innovative
financing instrument (e.g. with a return based on savings on fuel or
maintenance the airline may realize as a result of participation)
Marketing and advertising activities, to increase awareness of the AMDAR
program among key stakeholder groups
3. Promoting AMDAR Awareness
The WMO seeks to increase awareness of the AMDAR program and its benefits not only
to the meteorological and aviation communities, but also to public, private and civil
society actors in target countries, to drive increased participation and program
expansion. To this end, the WMO seeks partners that can participate in awarenessgenerating initiatives for the AMDAR program, such as hosting or facilitating events and
conferences, jointly launching online marketing efforts, and pushing other promotional
activities among partners’ clients or constituent groups.
Partners can help to promote the program by:


Facilitating stakeholder dialogues through introductions, meetings and events
Participating in the development and distribution of AMDAR-related
communications materials (across various media channels)
4. Standardizing AMDAR
The WMO will work with regional and global stakeholders to coordinate efforts to
standardize the AMDAR program from a policy and technical perspective. For
example, aircraft and avionics manufacturers can be mandated to ensure all aircraft
are AMDAR-enabled, either as a result of demand from airlines, or effective policy
changes at the global level.
Partners can support program standardization by:
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

Facilitating and/or participating in policy dialogues at the national, regional or
global levels
Working with governments, airlines, aircraft and avionics manufacturers and
other stakeholders to increase support for and standardized use of AMDAR
CONTACT INFORMATION
To find out more about the AMDAR program in your region and how you can get involved,
contact your regional WMO office or local NMHS (details included below).
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