The Role of Land Tenure in Strategies to Reduce Vulnerability to Droughts in Northeastern Brazil Fabiano Toni Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil Abstract The objective of this research is to determine the effects of land tenure rights on the vulnerability of subsistence farmers to climate change in the Brazilian semi-arid zone. The semi-arid comprises approximately two thirds of Brazil’s Northeast region, which is the poorest region in the country. Annual rainfall is as low as 400 mm in some zones and there is a sharp interannual variation. The local population is permanently exposed to droughts and its associated consequences, such as crop failure, famine, and out-migration. The occurrence of common-property pasturelands, known as Fundos de Pasto, is frequent. In this research we conduct a comparative analysis of two distinct farming systems – those that use Fundo de Pasto, and those that are based solely on private properties, in the North portion of the state of Bahia. Results show that there are no significant differences between the two groups concerning total income. However, farmers using Fundo de Pasto have more diversified systems and invest more on small-animals husbandry, particularly goats, which are well adapted to the harsh environmental conditions. Moreover, investing in a larger number of animals (as opposed to fewer bovines) spreads the risk of loss due to droughts. An evidence of the advantages of such system is the observed higher consumption of animal meat among families that have Fundo de Pasto. Introduction In vast areas of the Brazilian semi-arid zone, the occurrence of common property pasturelands, locally known as fundos de pasto or fechos de pasto is frequent. Those areas are adjacent to private plots, wherein smallholders live, grow annual crops, some perennials, and breed small animals. The commons are mainly native vegetation, comprised of bushes and native grasses. Besides pastures, they are also an important source of medicines, firewood, and fruits. Usually the term fecho de pasto refers to areas where bovine cattle are predominant, whereas in the fundos de pasto, caprine and ovine cattle is predominant. Usually the latter is more frequent in drier areas than the former. Goats are particularly important in the fundo de pasto system, due to their resistance against droughts. In some cases, the farmers grow some fodder in their private plots, however, for many others, the common pasturelands are the only source of food for their animals. Those common property pasturelands came into being as a consequence of the abandonment of old cattle ranches along the São Francisco River, which in turn occurred due to the decline of the sugar cane industry on the coast of the State of Pernambuco, during the 19 th Century. From the 16th Century on, extensive cattle ranching had occupied the backlands of the Northeast, along the river. The cattle was shipped the main markets in Olinda, Recife, and other cities along the coast, in the sugar cane production zones known as Zona da Mata. The beef market plunged as the sugar industry declined, and many ranches were abandoned and latter occupied by local rural workers, freed slaves and migrants. Land was abundant, in spite of lack of tenure security, but the climate conditions were harsh. As a consequence, farmers grabbed small individual land plots to grow their crops and let their animals freely graze around their properties. As the rural population grew, farmers gathered around large traits of pasturelands. In many cases, those who occupy neighboring plots share some sort of kinship, and regulate access to the commons. Besides pasture, the common areas are an important source of fibers used in crafts and house building, honey, fruits, medicines and game. Recently, the State of Bahia started issuing land individual land titles to farmers. The most organized communities have also been fighting for their right to obtain collective titles of the common property areas. Just a few have succeeded so far (NEED TO ADD NUMBERS HERE). Titling has become very important, because the escalation of conflicts. A few communities have problems with smallholders who migrate to the area and want access to the common property pasturelands; other, face treats from professional land grabbers, mining companies, and ranchers who claim to be the legitimate owners of the lands. Another important problem is the lack of official support for the economic activities developed in those areas. In general farmers need legal title to their lands in order to have access to rural credit. Also, they lack technical assistance and scientific and technological input to their activities. In part this neglect is a consequence of a misconceived and prejudicial view of the fundo de pasto system by politicians, government officials, and researchers, according to which this is a backward and economically unsustainable system. The main objective of this paper is to discuss the importance and limits of the fundo de pasto system, in a context of high vulnerability to climate change. In order to do that, we present a comparative study of two groups of smallholders: those who use common property pasturelands, and those who rely solely on private lands. In the next section of the text we present some background information on the climate conditions that impinge on the population of the Brazilian semi-arid zone and lay the basic elements of an analytical framework to study the effects of land tenure on the vulnerability of smallholders to droughts. In the 2 following section we present the main research hypotheses and questions. Part 3 is a short summary of the methodological procedures deployed to achieve the proposed objectives. In the following section we present the main findings. Finally, in the last section we draw our main conclusions and make a few policy recommendations. 1. Climate and Vulnerability: Background and a Framework of Analysis The Brazilian Northeast region is located between 4o and 16o S and 33o and 46o W, just east of the Amazonian rainforest, with an area of 1.5 million km2. Approximately 15 million Northeasterners live in rural areas, which represent 32% of the regional population and 46% of the Brazilian rural population. Besides this low urbanization rate, it is worth noting that 50.6% of the local population lives in municipalities that have less than 50.000 inhabitants1, in which there are few job opportunities and where most of the population’s livelihoods depend directly or indirectly on agriculture (Wanderley, 2002). The regional economic and social indicators are below the national average, and there is a strong interregional unevenness. Most of the industrial activities, services, and research and higher education institutions are concentrated in the metropolitan areas around the capital cities of the states of Bahia, Pernambuco, and Ceará. The rainfall in the region is typically concentrated between February and March. Although some costal zones, particularly in the east, receive as much as 1.600 mm of rainfall, some zones in the backlands have an annual average of less than 400 mm. The semi-arid zone (known as the Droughts Polygon) has 950.000 Km2, which represents 58% of the Northeastern territory. The temporal and spatial variability of rainfall are very high, as in other semi-arid zones of the world. The interannual rainfall variation is usually around +/40% from the long term annual average (Alves, 1997); however, in extreme years deviation can be much higher, ranging from to 200% to – 100% of the standard deviation (Nobre et al 1992). The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) considers this region one of the most vulnerable to the effects of climate change (Schneider and Sarukhan, 2001; Parry et al, 1988, cited in Gasques, 1992). One of the causes of such variation is the Southern Oscillation Phenomenon – the abnormal temperatures of the Southern Tropical Pacific Ocean. The Oscillation – also known as El Niño during its warm phase and La Niña during its cold phase – has a worldwide impact on the climate, and rainfall variation is one of its main effects. During El Niño seasons, rainfall tends to decrease in Northeast Brazil and to increase in the South. The effects of La Niña are the opposite. However, climate change is a very complex phenomenon and the Southern Oscillation is not the only responsible for rainfall variation changes in the Brazilian semiarid. Some authors argue that it may even be a variable of secondary importance. Nonetheless, Alves (1997) studied the correlation between the Southern Oscillation and agricultural output in the state of Ceará between 1947 and 1990 to conclude that beans and maize crops (the main staples in the region, along with cassava) were 10 – 20% above the historical mean during La Niña years, and 30 – 50% bellow average during El Niño years. In contrast, many studies have shown that in southeastern South America, maize and soybean yields tend to be higher than normal during the warm phase of the Southern Oscillation and lower during the cold phase (Berlato and Fontana, 1997; Grondona et al., 1997; Magrin et al., 1998; Baethgen and Romero, 2000). In a scenario of global warming, subsistence agriculture in semi-arid lands is at high risk. The global agricultural model of Rosenzweig et al. (1993) identifies northeastern Brazil as suffering 1 In the richest state of the federation – São Paulo – less than 20% of the population lives in towns this size. 3 yield impacts that are among the most severe in the world (see Reilly et al., 1996; Canziani et al., 1998; Rosenzweig and Hillel, 1998). Severe climate conditions are not the only stressors that impinge on the local population. Other endogenous and exogenous factors operate along with climate to increase vulnerability. Low rainfall, when coupled with high temperatures and anthropic factors, such as overgrazing, deforestation, removal of natural vegetation cover, and poor soil management increases the risk of land degradation and desertification2. According to the IPCC, the regions most vulnerable to desertification in Latin America are located in northeast Brazil, in the zone along the Caribbean coasts of Venezuela and Colombia, and in the semi-arid Chacoan of northern Argentina (Schneider and Sarukhan, 2001). Land degradation is a stressor partially caused by its very victims. When better options are not available, due to economic or technological constraints, farmers may need to remove land cover and let their livestock overgraze to cope with the short-term effects of droughts. As shown in figure 1, there is a feedback mechanism that involves stressors, land-use decisions and outcomes. Within certain contexts, environmental stressors forces decision-makers to rationally overexploit their resources, causing land degradation, which, in turn exacerbates the environmental stressors. Similarly, other coping mechanisms are effective in the short run but reinforce chronic social stressors. In the case of Northeast Brazil, political patronage and clientelism are notorious socio-political stressors. As the local population depends on governmental assistance to make ends meet during the periods of hardship, local political leaders seize control of public resources and exchange them for votes and political support. A historical perspective shows that the manipulation of state policies and funds by such power brokers has shaped vulnerability and pulled the poor “down the rainfall gradient into more an more marginalized lands” (Ribot, 1995,p. 121, quoting Glantz, 1995). Nevertheless, patronage may be considered an entitlement that helps decrease vulnerability. We will take this approach in this study and will treat clientelism as part of the structure of entitlements, rather than a stressor (see Figure 1). One of our objectives is, therefore, to analyze the role of patronage in the coping strategies of the population exposed to the risk of severe droughts. In this research, we use Adger and Kelly’s definition of vulnerability as “the state of individuals, of groups, of communities, defined in terms of their ability to cope with and adapt to any external stress placed on their livelihoods and well-being” (1999: 253). This definition acknowledges the importance of the degree of exposure to stressors, as well as the nature and the intensity of external stressors. On the other hand, it makes explicit that vulnerability is a social construct, inherently linked to people’s capacity to act and to react. The vulnerability of individuals and collectivities is therefore dependent on the availability of resources and on their entitlements to call on these resources. The concept of entitlements in the analysis of vulnerability comes from the work of Amartya Sen (1981, 1989) on hunger and famine. According to Sen, a household’s entitlements consist of the food that a household can obtain through production exchange, or extra-legal legitimate conventions – such as reciprocal relations or kinship obligations (Drèze and Sen, 1989, cited by Ribot, 1995). A household’s assets and endowments include investments in productive activities, stores of food, cash, and livestock; and Desertification is defined as land degradation in arid, semi-arid, and dry sub-humid areas resulting from various factors, including climactic variations and human activities (conclusion from Earth Summit of Rio de Janeiro in 1992—UNCED, 1992). Evaluation of desertification around the world is controversial, for there is no unique measure of aridity. 2 4 claims on other households, patrons, chiefs, and government, among others. Assets are normally used in moments of distress to obtain food, health care, and other emergent contingences. As Swift (1989, p. 11) puts it, “Assets create a buffer between production, exchange, and consumption.” Three main strategies can be deployed to increase assets and endowments. The first two relates particularly to endowments and basically consist of developing social relations, although in very distinctive ways: vertically or horizontally. Vertical social relations are socially hierarchical and asymmetrical, in the sense that they imply an unequal balance of power between the higher and the lower levels of the social hierarchy. In such relations, peasants usually exchange votes and political allegiance for public and private goods and services, which is the basis of clientelism. Although in the long run this strategy contributes to keep the less powerful in a vulnerable position, in the short term it is very cost effective, for peasants do not have to sell or trade part of their assets, if they have any, to get what they need – usually food and water. Horizontal social relations are the social fabric of safety nets. In times of hardship, those who have developed such relations may rely on neighbors, family, and community members to cope with the stressors that they face. Support may come in form of money and food loans, water, labor, shelter, transportation and many others. The more community members use this kind of support, and reciprocate, the strongest their safety net. In other words, they enhance their social capital by using it (Putnam, 1993). A third way to increase assets and endowments is by means of accumulation. This is a very important strategy for it does not entail dependence on outsiders. However, it does require a relatively efficient productive system that generates surplus. Usually, small farmers make some profit with agriculture and invest the surplus in livestock, particularly in cattle, due to its liquidity and other comparative advantages (Smith et al. 1995; Durning and Brough, 1991). Cattle can easily be sold to cover expected and unexpected financial needs. Using Swift’s words, one can argue that cattle probably represent the most effective “buffer between production, exchange, and consumption” (Swift1989: 11). Figure 1 represents the structure of vulnerability of small farmers to climate change in the Brazilian semiarid zone. The exposure unities are households and communities. They are exposed to very clear external environmental stressors, which are low precipitation and sharp rainfall variation; in other words, droughts. Droughts are aggravated by land degradation, which is at the same time a stressor and an outcome of inadequate land management. The households and communities deploy three main strategies: patronage, use of assets and collective action to cope with the effects of the social and environmental stressors that impinge on them. An important argument made here is that patronage may be a very efficient coping strategy in the short term, particularly because it is more cost-effective in terms of labor and loss of assets. Nevertheless, in the long run, it reinforces the existing social stressors. The outcomes of the interaction between the stressors are usually crop failure, livestock losses, out migration, malnutrition, land degradation and further impoverishment of the local population. Of course those outcomes depend on the efficacy of the coping mechanisms and the architecture of entitlements of the exposed unities. 5 Figure 1 Structure of Vulnerability in the Brazilian semi-arid zone. Stressors Exposure Unity Outcomes Households Community Environmental Low/variable Rainfall Desertification Coping mechanisms Patronage Use of Assets Collective action Overexploitation of natural resources (overgrazing, removal of natural vegetation Crop Failure Livestock losses Out migration Malnutrition Land Degradation Land tenure and land property rights are particularly relevant within this framework. Property rights have an important impact on land use and on decision-making concerning investments by farmers. Therefore, it affects the structure of assets, entitlements and endowments and shapes the vulnerability of the local population to the stressors that they face. Also, communal land management entails social organization and collective action, which may be important components of local coping strategies. Some authors claim that land titling may significantly promote more sustainable forms of land use (Wachter, 1992; World Bank, 1992). According to this perspective, the security that is provided by well-defined property rights allows for longer-term planning horizons because landowners have the assurance that their decisions will be implemented, and that they will capture the returns from their investments. Recognized title also promotes investment by providing collateral, and by providing landholders access to credit and capital markets (Alston, Libecap and Mueller, 1999). The lack of secure property rights, on the other hand, implies that land owners will not be sure if they will benefit from their investments and natural resource conservation measures that they eventually adopt (see Alchian e Demsetz, 1973; Alessi, 1987; Alston, Libecap e Schneider, 1994; Beaumont e Walker, 1994). In situations wherein users of open access resources lack title and secure private ownership, economic rationality may induce them to deplete these resources (Hardin, 1968). However, this view does not consider that title and private ownership are not necessarily the only forms of property right that grant security to land owners. Communal property rights, collective action, and local institutions may in fact provide even more security under certain circumstances. Communal land use in poorer areas, contrary to what a significant body of literature would predict, may have been detaining environmental degradation rather than promoting it (Ostrom, 1991). At this point, it is necessary to make a distinction between “openaccess” and “common property resources”. The former refers to unregulated and unmanaged resources 6 that can be freely used without distinction or hindrance and, hence, are prone to the overexploitation based on economic rationality as predicted by Ostrom. Common property resources, on the other hand refer to those commons that are governed by some sort of managerial rules, or institutions, writ large. 2. Research Questions and Hypotheses The main research question in this research relates to the correlation between different land tenure rights and the vulnerability of subsistence farmers to droughts. A central hypothesis of the study is that communities that have communal rights are significantly less vulnerable to exposure to droughts and other social stressors than communities that operate within individual and private land right regimes. This is so because those communities are able to breed larger cattle herds, particularly caprine and ovine. Cattle, is the main asset that subsistence farmers use to cope with droughts, for it represents a hedge that can be used to buy food, to gain access to water, to buy medicines, and to avoid migration, among other benefits. Goats in general, and some breeds of sheep are particularly well adapted to arid and semi-arid zones. Communal management of pasturelands, in comparison with individual management, allows farmers to increase cattle herds. This occurs mainly because common property pasturelands give cattle further mobility, which is crucial for the survival of the herds during dry periods. Also, smallholders can invest in animals rather than in fences, increasing tradable (and edible) assets that can be easily mobilized during harsh times. The main question asked in this paper, therefore is: are there significant differences in terms of assets and income between smallholders who use common pasturelands and those who use only private pasturelands in the semi-arid zone? 3. Methods To test our hypothesis, we used data collected by the Brazilian National Institute for Agricultural Research – EMBRAPA, in 2002. The data was obtained by means of a random survey in 12 municipalities in Northeastern Bahia, in which a questionnaire was applied to 549 smallholders. The questionnaire had 678 questions, which can be roughly divided in six main categories: 1) general information on the family (e.g. number of members, age structure) 2) general information on the property (location, size, titling status; land use); 3) Land use (area of annual and perennial crops, pasture, herds size); 4) investments (tools, buildings, machinery); 5) agricultural income (sales and consumption of crops, animals, milk, honey, crafts, etc.) and; 6) non-farm income (pensions, wage labor, remittances). The questionnaires were coded and fed into a SPSS database. In the statistical analysis, the use of common pasturelands was the independent variable. Due to the complexity and length of the questionnaire, we selected a few dependent variables and built a series o dummy variables to test the main hypotheses. Then we run a bivariate analysis to compare the two groups. 7 4. Results The analysis shows that, among the 25 selected variables there are significant differences between the two groups concerning: A) total area of subsistence crops (variable 3 presented on Table 1); B) total area of cash crops (variable 4); C) pastureland area (variable 5), D) goat herds (variable 8); E) income generated by cattle (bovine) ranching (variable 16); and F) per capita consumption of meet. In average, smallholders who use common pasturelands (from now on, group 1) have 1.83 hectares of subsistence crops; those who do not use common pasturelands (group 2), have 1.20 hectares. Goat herds are significantly larger in group 1: 8.91 animal units, against 6.6 animals in group 2. The size of private pasturelands is larger in farms in group 2 (10.1 hectares) than in group 1 ( 3.9 hectares). Accordingly, the difference in the income generated by cattle ranching significantly varies between the two groups (USD 279.2 / year against 146.36 / year for group 1). Although there are few differences, those two groups have different farming systems. Group 1 is more focused on subsistence, whereas group 2 tends to be more market-oriented. Although farmers in group 2 do not have significantly larger cattle herds, they earn more cash income from ranching. Considering that they have larger pasture areas, we can deduct that they practice a more intensive ranching, i.e., they deploy more capital and labor in this activity. Although they also tend to focus on cash crops, rather than on subsistence crops, the income they get from that activity is not significantly higher than what farmers in group 1 get. Group 1 Group 2 Farmers use common property pasturelands Farmers do not use common property pasturelands Focus on goats Focus on cattle (more intensive) Larger area with subsistence crops Larger area with cash crops Similar Income These findings suggest that farmers who do not use common property pasturelands tend to invest more capital and labor in cattle and pasturelands, which is probably why they have relatively smaller areas of subsistence crops. On the other hand those who use common pasturelands do not need to invest their resources in pastures, for their animals (typically goats) rely on the native vegetation to graze. At this point, the analysis shows that farmers in group 2 may indeed adopt “more modern” farming systems, in which a higher level of inputs also yields higher outputs. However, this conclusion is still premature. If we look at the total income of the families in both groups (variable 14) there is no significant difference whatsoever. This f The most important finding in our analysis is related to the per capita annual meet consumption (variable 26), which is significant higher among farmers in group 1 than in group 2 (52.54 kg against 36.86kg/family member/year). This is particularly important in a dry region such as the Brazilian Northeast, where malnutrition is rampant. The explanation for this seems straightforward: as farmers who use common 8 property pasturelands invest more in small animals, they have larger herds and can afford slaughtering an animal every now and then. A goat or a sheep can be eaten in a few days by a family, shared with neighbors, or salted. Cows, on the other hand, must be taken to the market for a family cannot possibly storage or consume all the beef that one animal yields, even when those families have refrigerators. Accordingly, investing in goats instead of cattle is an effective strategy to decrease the vulnerability to draughts. With the same capital, a farmer can purchase a larger number of goats than cows, therefore, during dry periods, he spreads the risks of loss amongst a larger herd. Moreover, goats are more adapted to dry conditions and can graze on a larger number of species. In addition, cattle ranching demands more pasture and fodder, diverting capital and labor from other activities, particularly subsistence crops. Simply put, under a farming system that relies solely on private lands, farmers tend to work harder to feed cattle, not themselves and their families. Table 01. Means and standard deviation for selected variables Common Pasturelands Yes Variable 441 44,16 1,83 1,06 3,92 0,37 27,34 8,91 5,47 4,98 5,45 1,39 677,02 1673,21 1236,70 146,28 212,77 124,70 222,64 113,32 461,65 7,56 50,50 12,83 436,52 52,54 63,80 Mean 1. Number of farms 2. Total area (ha) 3. Subsistence crops area (ha) 4. Commercial crops area(ha) 5. Private Pastureland area (ha) 6. Fodder area (ha) 7. Natural vegetation (caatinga) area (ha) 8. Caprines – Animal Unity 9. Ovines – Animal Unity 10. Bovines – Animal Unity 11. Family size 12. Number of migrants 13. Investment mach./equipment (USD) 14. Total income (USD/year) 15. Cash income (USD/year) 16. Income bovines (USD/year) 17. Income caprines (USD/year) 18. Income ovines (USD/year) 19. Agricultural income (USD/year) 20. Other animals (USD/year) 21. Pensions (USD/year) 22. Remittances (USD/year) 23. Wage labor (USD/year) 24. Other (USD/year) 25. In farm consumption (USD/year) 26. Meet consumption (Kg/family member/year) No Standard Deviation 71,09 2,66 2,32 7,54 1,53 49,04 9,91 7,46 10,25 2,79 2,33 1503,37 1783,49 1655,13 498,88 521,77 573,64 650,37 678,50 764,35 42,27 186,30 95,22 372,56 9 T test 108 45,19 1,20 1,68 10,13 0,55 23,94 6,59 5,18 6,31 5,29 1,63 653,64 775,43 719,62 216,90 226,85 249,41 282,77 295,00 332,33 18,38 81,00 41,40 161,98 Standard Deviation 63,01 2,65 5,24 17,48 2,20 40,62 10,79 9,60 14,99 3,01 2,89 1608,21 2945,86 2872,24 879,50 343,29 430,87 1535,03 119,52 832,77 25,48 164,57 73,26 436,04 ns p<0,05 p<0,10 p<0,05 ns ns p<0,05 ns ns ns ns ns ns ns p< 0,05 ns ns ns ns ns ns ns ns ns 36,86 43,12 P< 0,05 Mean 5. Conclusions The results contradict the caims that the fundo de pasto is a backward farming system. Although private farming systems tend to be a little more technology intensive, they do not provide a higher income to smallholders. Moreover, the fundo the pasto system has a clear advantage in terms of food security, for it provides a higher protein intake to farmers and their families. It is important to stress, howerer, that there is no reliable data on the ecological sustainability of the fundo de pasto system. This is, in part, a consequence of the predominat view that the system is anachronic and should be substituted by private property. Little research effort has been made to understand the system and its environmental impact. In many cases, goats could be overgrazing the native vegetation and causing serious degradation. It is crucial to develop further research on the feeding habits of goats, as well as on the regrowth of the natural vegetation, in order to develop sustainable systems of pasture management. This can contribute not only to increase livestock outputs, but also to the conservation of the rich and complex semi-arid landscape (caatinga). Accordingly, there are several non-timber forest products – fibers, fruits, barks, roots - that can be harvested from the caatinga to increase farm income. However, there is little scientific input to develop forest management in those areas. Sound research is important to support public policies designed to protect the caatinga and its population. Also, there are important experiences of collective land management elsewhere in Brazil, such as the Extractivist Reserves and Agroforestry Land Reform Settlements in Amazonia, which should be considered by policy makers and, specially, by the local population and the social organizations that represent them. Developing appropriate land and forest management systems is crucial for the population to cope with vulnerability to droughts, however, the greatest challenge tha they face is building social institutions that secure access to natural resources. 10 6. References Adger, N. and P.M. Kelly. 1999. 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