Census Data Reveal Significant and a Few Surprising Changes in Kentucky’s Tobacco Industry Will Snell, University of Kentucky February 2009 The results from the 2007 Ag Census were released on February 4 th and as expected revealed a significant concentration in the number of farms growing tobacco in the post-buyout era. According to the Census, the number of farms growing tobacco in Kentucky declined from nearly 30,000 in 2002 to 8,113 in 2007 – a 72% reduction. Despite this significant decline, the numbers of farms growing tobacco outnumber all other single ag enterprises in Kentucky with the exception of the number of cattle/hay farms. While 17 states reported tobacco farms, the Census indicates that 50% of all the farms growing tobacco in the United States are located in Kentucky. The number of tobacco farms in the U.S. also fell by 72%, with Pennsylvania being only state with a higher number of farms growing tobacco in 2007 vs 2002. State Kentucky North Carolina Tennessee Pennsylvania Virginia Georgia Others (11 states) Total U.S. Tobacco Farms (2007) 8,113 2,662 1,610 1,152 895 224 1,578 16,234 % of U.S. Tobacco Farms 50% 16% 10% 7% 6% 1% 10% 100% Change Since 2002 -72% -66% -80% +28% -79% -73% -73% -72% As expected, the Eastern Kentucky crop reporting district lost the greatest number of tobacco farms in the state, down 83%, while the Purchase and Midwestern districts only experienced a loss of around ½ of their tobacco farms. The Central crop reporting district had the largest percentage of tobacco farms in the state (29.8%), followed closely by the Bluegrass region (29.6%). The number of farms growing tobacco in Eastern Kentucky fell from 21.3% of the state’s total in 2002 down to 12.7% in 2007. Pulaski County led all counties in losing 559 tobacco farms, followed by Casey County (-540 tobacco farms) and Laurel County (-497 tobacco farms). While not losing as many tobacco farms, it was noticeable to observe the historic tobacco-rich Boyle County down to 15 tobacco farms. Profitable growing opportunities resulted in a much smaller percentage of tobacco farms exiting in many of the traditional dark tobacco counties such as Graves (-36%), Calloway (-35%) and Todd (-31%). While state-wide tobacco acreage declined 21% from 2002 to 2007, tobacco acreage in the Purchase region increased 21% (despite a 73% decline in Ballard County) and was 13% higher in the Midwestern region, versus falling 60% in Eastern Kentucky. Christian County led the state with the biggest increase in tobacco acres since 2002 (+947 acres), while Madison County lost the greatest number of tobacco acres (-1,532 acres). Despite a lot of tobacco acres shifting to the western third of the state, the Bluegrass region still possessed the greatest share of Kentucky tobacco acres (34.5%) and the largest share of Kentucky tobacco production (31.7%) in 2007. As anticipated, the average size of farms growing tobacco has increased since the 2002 Census. Prior to the buyout the average tobacco acreage per farm growing the crop in Kentucky was slightly less than 4 acres. The 2007 Ag Census revealed that the average almost tripled to 10.8 acres in 2007. However, amazingly the largest single group of farms was those in the 2 to 4.9 acre range, accounting for 1/3of all Kentucky farms. Forty-five percent of Kentucky tobacco farms in 2007 had less than 5 acres, compared to less than 10% exceeding 25 acres of tobacco. The largest tobacco farms are, as expected in the Purchase and Midwestern crop reporting districts, averaging 16.2 and 14.7 acres per farm respectively, with Eastern Kentucky averaging 6 acres per tobacco farm in 2007. Only five counties had average tobacco acreage exceeding 20 acres per farm in 2007 – Fayette (29.1 acres), Woodford (23.9 acres), Christian (21.2 acres), Bourbon (20.8 acres), and Trigg (20.5 acres). KY Tobacco Acreage Per Farm Less than 2 Acres 2.0 to 4.9 Acres 5.0 to 9.9 Acres 10.0 to 24.9 Acres 25.0 to 49.8 Acres 50.0 to 99.9 Acres More than 100 Acres Total Number of Farms 957 2,688 1,991 1,687 497 221 72 8,113 Percent of Farms 12% 33% 25% 21% 6% 3% 1% 100% Note: I will be placing some summary data from the 2007 Ag Census on tobacco farms per Kentucky county and crop reporting districts online soon, but if you would like a copy of the Excel file just send me an email at wsnell@uky.edu. Also individual county profiles for each Kentucky county can be accessed online at: http://www.agcensus.usda.gov/Publications/2007/Online_Highlights/County_Profiles/Kentucky/index.asp (Will Snell)