POSC 330
The Complexity of Politics
Monday & Wednesday: 2:35 to 4:20
Library 344
Professor: Greg Marfleet
Willis 413
(507) 646-4116
Greg.Marfleet@carleton.edu
Office Hours:
Tuesday 1:00 – 3:00
Monday & Wednesday
11:15 to 12:45
(Figure from Joshua Epstien’s Agent-based Model of Genocide)
Theories of complexity and emergence relate to how large-scale collective properties and
characteristics of a system can arise from the behavior and attributes of component parts. This
course explores the relevance of these concepts, studied mainly in physics and biology, for the
social sciences.
Readings and seminar discussion topics may include conflict and cooperation in international
and sub-national environments, electoral competition, cross-cultural contact and the
transmission of cultural traits, models of group interactions and decision making and social
networks
Over the term we will experientially explore agent-based modeling to discover emergent
properties of social systems through computer simulations created using NetLogo software. A
series of workshops will build the requisite skills to complete the programming project which
constitutes the main graded assignment for the class.
This course is organized in a combination seminar/workshop format. Each meeting will begin
with a discussion of the listed readings. Students will be assigned roles as discussants and will
be asked to generate 3 or 4 discussion questions per reading. For the second half of the class
we will shift our focus to NetLogo programming. On Mondays we will discuss assignments that
are ‘in progress’ and you can raise any questions or problems you are having. On Wednesday I
will ask student to briefly present their finished models for that assignment. If possible I will
arrange to hold a few session in a multi-user computer lab to facilitate group brainstorming and
“on the fly” code revisions.
Resources
Books
 Axelrod, Robert. 1997. The Complexity of Cooperation. Princeton University Press:
Princeton NJ.
 Schelling, Thomas C. 1978. Micromotives and Macrobehavtior. Norton: New York.
 Cederman, Lars-Eric. 1997. Emergent Actors in World Politics. Princeton University
Press: Princeton NJ.
Articles
Articles listed below are (mostly) available in adobe .pdf format (some are in html) and have
been placed in the Collab Course Materials folder for this course. Others are on J-stor. The few
that are not in electronic form already will be made available at the library reserve desk or on ereserves.
One very useful resource for research on agent based modeling in the social sciences is
JASSS: Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation at
http://jasss.soc.surrey.ac.uk/JASSS.html. Although some of the studies are quite technical, you
may find the journal helpful as you search for modeling ideas.
Collab
The Collab course materials and common folders for POSC 330 will serve as resource depots
for the class. Students may chose to post their code solutions in the common folder and I will
make coding examples available as well. Keep your eye on these important folders throughout
the term.
Grading Scheme
Component
Participation in Seminar (includes discussion question
Preparation when required)
Workshop Assignments (Weeks 1 to 5) 75 pts each
Model Proposal Paper (due Wednesday of Week 6)
Workshop Assignments (Weeks 7, 8, 9) 25 pts each)
Final Project (including Presentation due 11/19)
Total
Pts
200
375
150
75
200
1000
Participation in Seminar
Participation in and preparation for seminar discussion is a large component of your grade. For
each session of class I will ask for volunteers to act as reading discussion leaders. Each leader
should prepare 3-4 discussion questions that relate to his/her assigned readings. These
questions must be submitted to the instructor either in physical or electronic form on Monday.
Other students should read the material and come prepared to engage in a discussion centered
on the questions generated by their peers. I will be monitoring each student’s involvement and
preparation for seminar over the term and these observations and the submitted question
sheets will be considered in assigning your participation grade.
Assignments
Modeling workshop assignments are assigned weekly and will be due on Wednesday of each
week. However, please do not leave your coding until Tuesday night! The second half of each
Monday sessions will focus on your work ‘in progress’ as it pertains to the week’s assignment.
These sessions that will allow you to show us your work so far, ask questions and get feedback
from the instructor and your peers before the assignment is due! The more you have done on
Monday the better your projects will turn out. Please not that unless arrangements are made
with the instructor prior to the due date, late assignments, papers and projects will be penalized
5 points per day to a maximum of 50% of the possible points. It is important that we all stay on
schedule with our modeling projects to maximize the benefits of peer interaction.
Week 1 Introduction to Complexity and the Social Sciences
Modeling Assignment 1:
NetLogo is an agent based modeling tool that is freely available for education purposes.
Download and install NetLogo 2.1 from
http://ccl.northwestern.edu/netlogo/
Complete tutorial #1 in the NetLogo manual and complete the steps in “Turtle Epidemic
A NetLogo Simulation Activity “ (Balzano,2002) (in the collab folder for week 1).
IMPORTANT NOTE: Store the code you create in your Collab student work space FOR
THIS CLASS (call it myname_1.nlogo where ‘myname’ is your last name). Please don’t
store your assignment code on your personal Collab home folder since that folder won’t
be available in class unless we continuously log off and on the classroom PC (and
reinstall NetLogo each time!) or in the Common class folder (unless you want everyone
to have access).
Readings:
Monday:
 Jervis, Robert. 1998. “Complexity and the Analysis of Political and Social Life.”
Political Science Quarterly 122, 4 : 569-93.
 Hamman, Henry (1998) “Remodeling International Relations: New Tools from New
Science” Chapter 8 in International Relations in a Constructed World, Kubalkova, Onuf
and Kowert Eds. Armonk, NY: M. E. Sharpe.
Wednesday:
 Axelrod, The Complexity of Cooperation. Introduction.
 Schelling, Micromotives and Macrobehavior. Chapter 1
 Lansing, Stephen J. 2002. “’Artificial societies’ and the social sciences”, Artificial Life,
v.8 n.3, p.279-292, 2002. (check out the daisy world model in collab)
Week 2 Agent-Based Models and Complex Adaptive Systems.
Modeling Assignment 2
Complete tutorial #2 from the Netlogo Manual and complete the steps in “A Standing
Ovation”. Store the code you create in your Collab student work space FOR THIS
CLASS (again call it myname_2.nlogo).
Readings
Monday:
 Schelling, Micromotives and Macrobehavior. Chapter 3, 4 and 5 (also 2?).
 Rauch, Jonathan. 2002. “Seeing Around Corners.” The Atlantic Monthly, April.
 Axtell, Robert (2000). “Why Agents? On the Varied Motivations for Agent Computing
in the Social Sciences.” Brookings Institute CSED Working Paper #17
(check out the Segregation and Sugar Scape Models on Collab)
Wednesday:
 John H. Miller and Scott E. Page (2004) “The Standing Ovation Problem” Complexity,
9, 5, pp 8-16.
 Macy, Michael W. and Robert Willer. 2002. From Factors to Actors: Computational
Sociology and Agent Based Modeling. Annual Review of Sociology. 28: 143-166.
Week 3 Adaptive Agents: Evolutionary Games and Genetic Algorithms
Modeling Assignment 3
Complete tutorial #3 from the Netlogo Manual. Because the complete code for this
tutorial is already in the guide and models library, your challenge for this assignment is
to somehow ‘take things a step beyond’ the basic tutorial. This could include
investigating other peak finding algorithms, changing the vision range of agents or, in
keeping with the readings, figuring out a way to have the agents evolve to get better at
climbing hills (death, reproduction, etc) Bring your ideas to class on Monday. Store the
code you create in your Collab student work space FOR THIS CLASS (call it myname_3
where ‘myname’ is your last name).
Readings
Monday
 Holland, John. 1992. “Complex Adaptive Systems.” Daedalus 121: 17-30.
 Holland, John. 1992. “Genetic Algorithms.” Scientific American. July. pp. 66-72.
 Axelrod, Robert. 1997. The Complexity of Cooperation. Chapter 1 & 2.
Wednesday
 Joshua Epstein 2001 “Zones of Cooperation in Demographic Prisoner's Dilemma”
Brookings Institute Working Paper.
 Miller, John H.. 1996. “The Coevolution of Automata in the Repeated Prisoner’s
Dilemma.” Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization 29:1.
 (check out the Moore Machine Example on Collab)
Week 4 Early Computer Simulations of World Politics
Modeling Assignment 4
Adapt an existing model. Select one of the models from the NetLogo Models library and
alter it in some significant (but not necessarily profound) way. Save this model in your
Collab student work space FOR THIS CLASS (as myname_4.nlogo) along with a brief
note (.doc or txt file) describing what you did to change the model. We’ll run both the
original and your adapted versions during class time.
Readings
Monday
 Bremmer, Stuart A. and Micheal Mihalka. 1977. “Machiavelli in Machina: Or politics
among Hexagons” in Karl Deutsch, Bruno Fritsch, Helio Jaguaribe and Andrei S.
Markovits Problems of World Modeling: Political and Social Implications. Ballinger:
Cambridge, MA. (e-reserve)
 Stoll, Richard. 1987. “System and State in International Politics: A Computer
Simulation of Balancing in an anarchic world”. International Studies Quarterly 31:4
(December 1987), pp. 387 402.
 Cederman, Lars-Erik. 1997. Emergent Actors in World Politics. Princeton: Princeton
University Press (ch 1)
Wednesday
 Cederman, Lars-Erik. 1997. Emergent Actors in World Politics. Princeton: Princeton
University Press (ch 2- 4)
Week 5 Contemporary ABM Models of International Relations
Modeling Assignment 5
No coding required! Now that you’ve seen some examples, it is time to propose some
model concepts. In a paper of not more than two pages compose brief outlines for at
least 3 ideas you have for an agent based model. Each outline should consider
what/who the agents are, what attributes they might have, how they might interact, etc.
Come prepared to share these ideas with the class. We’ll spend our time in small groups
discussing and refining everyone’s ideas.
Readings
Monday
 Cederman, Lars-Erik. 1997. Emergent Actors in World Politics. Ch 5 – 9.
Wednesday
 Axelrod, Robert. 1997. The Complexity of Cooperation. New York: Chapters 4 and 6.
 Cederman, Lars-Eric. 2003. “Modeling the Size of Wars: From Billiard Balls to
Sandpiles” American Political Science Review. 97, 1:135-150. (check out the
sandpiles model on Collab)
 Simon, Marc and Harvey Starr. 1996. “Extraction, Allocation and the Rise and Decline
of States: A simulation analysis of two-level security management” Journal of Conflict
Resolution 40, 2: 272-297.
Week 6 Modeling Societies in Conflict
Modeling Paper Proposal (a.k.a. assignment 6)
Your modeling project Proposal is due Wednesday. In a paper of not more that 5
pages (typed double spaced 12 pt point font) describe the model you want to build. Your
paper should begin with a brief introduction to the problem or substantive question you
want to investigate. Some indication of the relevant social science theories or literature
must be included (5 or 6 articles should suffice). You should also indicate the nature of
the agents in the model, their characteristics and possible interactions. Finally, you
should discuss what emergent properties of the model you wish to investigate. Is the
model outcome or process focused? Are the agents individually adaptive or is change to
be noted at the aggregate level? Are you looking for equilibria, tipping points or
perpetually novel processes? Etc. This paper will eventually become part of the content
of the ‘Information’ section of your completed model.
Readings
Monday No Class Mid-term Break
Wednesday
 Lustick, Ian S., Dan Miodownick and Roy Eidelson. 2004. “Secessionism in
Multicultural States: Does Sharing Power Prevent or Encourage It? American Political
Science Review, 98, 2 pp: 209-229.
 Bhavnani, Ravi and David Backer 2000. Localized Ethnic Conflict and Genocide:
Accounting for Differences in Rwanda and Burundi. The Journal of Conflict Resolution.
44, 3: pp. 283-306
 Epstein, Joshua M., John D. Steinbruner, Miles T. Parker 2001 “Modeling Civil
Violence: An Agent-Based Computational Approach” CSED Working Paper No. 20
http://www.brookings.edu/es/dynamics/papers/cviolence/cviolence.pdf
Week 7 Social Networks, Movements and Institutions
Modeling Assignment 7
Workshop Session #1a/b. Show us the goods, so far. You should be prepared on either
Monday or Wednesday to take the reigns of the class PC and run your current model on
the big screen! Each student should (by Wednesday) submit their model as it currently
stands AND include a VERY brief (one or two paragraph) summary of their coding
progress (like a log entry) in a .txt. or .doc file. The log should tell me what’s new in this
week’s code, describe any updated features and perhaps alert me to any problems that
you’d like to discuss in class! I may try to run your model or look at code to give you
feedback, but it is the log-file that will be graded.
Readings
Monday
 M. Afzal Upal. 2005. Simulating the Emergence of New Religious Movements. Journal
of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation vol. 8, no. 1
 Raczynski, S. 2004. “Simulation of the Dynamic Interactions between Terror and
Anti-Terror Organizational Structures.” Journal of Artificial Societies and Social
Simulations 7,2.
Wednesday
 Bhavani, R. 2003. “Adaptive Agents, Political Institutions and Civic Traditions in
Modern Italy.” Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation vol. 6, no. 4.
 Buckley, Jack and Scott Graves. 2001. Growing Congress: Using Agent-based
Computational Modeling to Develop Theories of Legislative Behavior, Learning and
Organization. Paper presented for the annual meeting of the Southern Political
Science Association
 van der Veen, A. Maurits. 2002. The Emergence of a European Identity: Modeling
International Experiences. Presented at the American Political Science Association
Annual Meeting in Boston, MA.
Week 8 Models of Norms, Cultures and Agent Behaviors
Modeling Assignment 8
Workshop Session #2a/b. Show us the goods. Remember to post your code and update
your log file.
Readings
Monday
 Axelrod, Robert. 1997. The Complexity of Cooperation. Chapters. 3, 5 & 7
Wednesday
 Arthur, W. Brian. (1994). Inductive reasoning and bounded rationality. American
Economic Review 84:406-411. (check out the El Farol bar model on Collab)
 Matthew J. Hoffmann 2000. Exploring Norm Emergence and Evolution: An
Investigation with Agent-Based Models. Annual Meeting of the American Political
Science Association, Washington, DC.
 Bednar, Jenna and Scott Page, “Game(s) Theory and Culture.” see Jenna Bednar’s
web site http://www-personal.umich.edu/~jbednar
Week 9 Making Choices: Electoral and Voting Models
Modeling Assignment 9
Workshop Session #3a/b. Show us the goods. Remember to post your code and update
your log file.
Readings
Monday
 Schelling Macromotives and Microbehavior Ch 6 & 7
 Kollman, Ken, John Miller, and Scott Page. 1992. “Adaptive Parties and Spatial
Elections.” American Political Science Review 86: 929-937.
Wednesday
 Kollman, Ken, John Miller, and Scott Page. 1997. “Political Institutions and Sorting in a
Tiebout Model.” American Economic Review 87: 977-92.
 Kollman, Ken, John Miller, and Scott Page. 1998. “Political Parties and Electoral
Landscapes.” British Journal of Political Science 28: 139-58.
Week 10 : Student Presentations
Our sessions on Monday and Wednesday will be devoted to viewing the (nearly) final version of
the models you have been working on over the last few weeks. Roughly 5 students will present
each day and each student will have 15-20 minutes to introduce, run and explore the model and
answer questions from the class and the instructor. This presentation is an integral part of the
final assignment grade. However you should view the session as a chance to get some lastminute feedback on your project before submitting the final product. The remainder of the final
assignment grade will focus on the completed model including code and documentation.
Your final model should be stored in your student work folder for POSC 330 as
“myname_final.nlogo”. In order to achieve a high grade on this assignment your code must be
1. Complete, working and bug free (I shouldn’t be able to crash it by using the built-in
features such as slider bars, buttons, menus, etc.).
2. Any plotting features should be functional and informative. The overall interface should
be well organized and not cluttered with unnecessary monitors that you included for
diagnostic or debugging purposes.
3. Your code must also be FULLY commented. Each named procedure should have some
introductory comments as well as informational comments throughout so that a reader
could follow the flow of the program.
4. Attention should have been paid to creating meaningful variable and procedure names
to ease code analysis.
5. The sections in the ‘Information’ tab for your model should also be completed. Much of
this may come from your earlier assignment but additional clarification and description of
the fully working model will undoubtedly be required.
The final version of the code MUST be placed in your Collab-hand in folder no later than 5:00pm
on Saturday November 19th (the first day of exams).