This module returns to the Joe Soccer story from Learning Module 1. In this decision module, Joe Soccer will make simple seasonal climate forecasts based on the
ENSO information presented in Learning
Module 3. Joe will then make a decision for each of the three ENSO phases, El Niño, La
Niña, and neutral phases. An important part of this learning module is integrating the material from Learning Modules 1, 2, and 3 into a decision making model. The learning module is developed such that only multiplication and division of whole numbers are necessary.
Students learn to use data to make graphical probabilistic seasonal precipitation forecasts and then use these probabilistic forecasts for the basis for decision making in a simple decision making model.
Besides the lab, optional homework and / or enrichment activities are provided.
Student Learning Objectives
The student:
1. Learns to use ENSO concepts to develop simple seasonal precipitation.
2. Learns to create and interpret simple graphs.
Teacher Edition 1 day
3. Develops an understanding that probabilistic forecasts, such as climate forecasts are not perfect.
4. Develops knowledge of the use of forecasts to make decisions.
5. Develops an understanding for probabilities and their use.
6. Works cooperatively in a group.
Teaching Summary
Step 1
Journal / Bell Work – Review Joe Soccer
Story
Step 2
Review / Introduce Probabilities - Optional
Step 3
ENSO Lab Decision - Making Lab
Step 4
Assessment / Homework
Materials
For the Teacher
Transparency of Joe Soccer Story
Transparency of the historical data table or a copy for each student or student group
Place students in groups, if appropriate.
For the students
Copies of or a review of the Joe Soccer story from Learning Module 1.
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Copies of the lab handouts for each student are necessary.
National Standards
Module provides integrated approach to address science, math, reading and geography national standards. See Teacher
Guide for specific standards addressed for grades 5-8.
Texas Essential Knowledge and Skills
(TEKS)
Module provides integrated approach to address science, math, reading, and geography standards. See Teacher Guide for specific standards addressed for grades sixth, seventh, and eighth.
If appropriate, place students in groups.
Review Joe Soccer story, probabilities, and graphing.
Step 1 - Journal / Bell Work
Review the Joe Soccer Story by either having students reread the story or a short class discussion of Joe’s problem. Stress the need that Joe wants to make an informed decision. Direct the discussion towards the question “Can you use your knowledge of
ENSO be used to help Joe make an informed decision?”
Step 2 – Review / Introduce Probabilities
- Optional
2
Calculating probabilities and percents
Student review - a percent or probability is the number of times an event occurs relative to the total number of events. Probabilities need to sum to 1 in decimal form or 100% in percent form. For example, if 6 times out of
20 draws you obtained a rain strip, the probability of rain would be decimal form and .3
x 100
6

.3
in
20

30% in percent form.
Step 3 - ENSO Decision-Marking Lab
This lab activity is best completed in student groups, but can be completed individually.
The lab is completed using the historical data table provide and answering the questions. The teacher can provide the answers to the summarizing the historical data table to decrease the time necessary to complete the lab. Activities 4 and 5 are optional, but Activity 4 is helpful if completing the advanced decision-making module – Learning Module 5.
Step 4 - Assessment / Homework
1. ENSO Decision-Making Lab.
2. Journal reflection: What subjects have contributed to your knowledge of decision-making?
1. Complete / do the ENSO Decision-
Making Lab as a homework assignment.

2. Inferencing
“Beyond the Data” homework.
3. “Climate Forecast” homework. This homework can be used as homework for
Learning Module 5.
1. Inferencing beyond the data homework.
2. Climate Forecast homework.
3. Have students complete the “Other
ENSO Effects” reading and worksheet from Learning Module 3.
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1. The teacher may want to assign peer tutors.
2. Let students use calculators to decrease the mathematical requirements.
3. Partially fill in formulas used in the calculations.
4. Place the students in groups such that the struggling learners are paired with peer tutors.

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Joe Soccer realizes to make an informed decision, he needs to collect data on precipitation,
ENSO phase, and number of soccer games played. The following tables give the data Joe collected. Your job is to use this data and help Joe make an informed decision. The data contains the year, the ENSO phase, El Niño (E), La Niña (L), or Neutral (O), and precipitation levels as below normal (B), near normal (N), or above normal (A).
Historical Observations on
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
ENSO phase in December
Associated with December
Through February Precipitation in Bryan / College Station, TX
Year
1971
Precipitation
Level
B
ENSO
Phase
L
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
A
N
N
B
N
E
L
L
L
E
N
A
N
B
B
A
B
N
B
A
B
A
N
A
A
A
N
A
B
N
A
B
B
N
L
L
L
O
O
E
L
O
E
O
E
E
L
O
O
E
E
O
O
O
O
E
L
L
Summary of number of average number of games played by league and precipitation level.
Precipitation
Level
Below Normal
Normal
Above Normal
Indoor
7
7
7
League
Outdoor
10
8
5
Directions – using the data in the tables answer the following questions. Once completed, you will have helped Joe
Soccer make a more informed decision concerning which soccer league to enter.

1. Summarizing the Historical Data Joe needs to put his data into a form useful for decisionmaking. One useful form to summarize data is bar graphs. Completion of the following table will help you create the necessary graphs. The number of years with below normal precipitation for all years and the number of years with above normal precipitation for neutral years are completed to help you complete the table. After you have completed the following table, check your numbers with your teacher before answering the questions.
ENSO Phase Below
(B)
All Years
La Niña (L)
El Niño (E)
10
6
1
Number of Years with each
Precipitation Level
Near Normal
(N)
10
4
2
Above
(A)
10
1
6
Neutral (O) 3 4 3
Teaching suggestion – with 3 or 4 students per group, have one student in each group be responsible for a particular phase and the all years’ row. For example, one student would only count the below, near normal, and above normal rainfall years for La Niña.
Activity One – All Years Forecasts
2. Using the data for all years (data in the all years row of the table), create a bar graph with the horizontal (x-axis) being the three precipitation levels, below, near, and above normal. The vertical (y-axis) is the number of years that fall into each precipitation category. This graph will give you a precipitation forecast based on historical precipitation data and not using
ENSO information. Hint: below normal precipitation is completed to get you started.
Precipitation Levels in Bryan / College Station
December - Febuary - All Years
10
8
6
10 10 10
4
2
0
Below Normal Near Normal
Rainfall Level
Above Nornal

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3. Using the graph created in problem 2, which soccer league should Joe sign-up for?
Student should recognize from the chart it is not clear which league to sign up for. Below, normal, and above precipitation levels are equally likely.
4. Recognition of Information Needs. Is there enough information in the graph created in problem 2 to help Joe make a more informed decision than just guessing?
No, the student should recognize additional information is necessary.
Activity Two – ENSO – Based Climate Forecasts
Activity Setup. Joe knows that the ENSO phase listed for each year in the table is the phase associated with conditions in the ocean at the beginning of December. He does not have to sign up for a league until the end of the first week of December. With this information, Joe decides to use the information on precipitation and ENSO to create a set of climate forecasts. With the information Joe gained from completing the Learning Module on ENSO, Joe decides to create three conditional bar graphs. By conditional, Joe will create a bar chart for each of the ENSO events. Because these charts are based on ENSO information at the beginning of December and precipitation that occurs after December 1, by developing these charts Joe is creating climate forecasts for each ESNO phase. Joe’s goal is to play in the largest expected number of soccer games.
5. La Niña Climate Phase Forecasts using data for La Niña phase years only, create a bar chart that gives the number of years that have above below, normal, and above normal precipitation similar to the graph completed for problem 2. Hint, there are only 11 La Niña phase years. Use only these 11 years to create your bar graph. The reason the chart is conditional, is to be included, the year had to be a La Niña year (conditional on the phase being La Niña). Hint: below normal precipitation is completed to get you started.
Precipitation Levels in Bryan / College Station
December - Febuary - La Nina Years
10
8
6
4
2
6
4
1
0
Below Normal Near Normal
Rainfall Level
Above Nornal

7
6.
El Niño Climate Phase Forecast -
Using data for El Niño phase years only, create a bar chart that gives the number of years that have above below, normal, and above normal precipitation similar to the graph completed for problems 2 and 5.
Precipitation Levels in Bryan / College Station
December - Febuary - El Nino Years
10
8
6
6
4
2
2
1
0
Below Normal Near Normal Above Nornal
Rainfall Level
7.
Neutral Climate Phase Forecasts.
Create a conditional bar chart using only other event years similar to problems 2, 5, and 6.
Precipitation Levels in Bryan / College Station
December - Febuary - Neutral Years
10
8
2
0
6
4
3
4
3
Below Normal Near Normal
Rainfall Level
Above Nornal

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Activity Three - Helping Joe Soccer Make an Informed Decision
Recall, Joe’s goal is to play in the largest expected number of soccer games.
8. Use your climate forecasts graph you created for problem 5 in answering the following question. If it is a La Niña year, what league do you think Joe should sign-up for? Why?
Joe should sign up for outdoor soccer. Why – higher probability of being below normal precipitation and more games played outdoor. Above normal precipitation occurs very infrequently.
9. Use your climate forecasts graph you created for problem 6 in answering the following question. If it is an El Niño year, what league do you think Joe should sign-up for? Why?
Joe should sign up for indoor soccer. Why – higher probability of being above normal precipitation and more games are played in the indoor league than the outdoor league if above normal precipitation
10. Use your climate forecasts graph you created for problem 7 in answering the following question. If it is a neutral year, what league do you think Joe should sign-up for? Why?
Similar to activity one, neutral years does not provide as much informatio n.
11. Your answers to questions 8, 9, and 10 should be different. Why?
Different forecasts mean different leagues are better.
Activity Four – Converting Graphical Forecasts to Probabilistic Forecasts - Optional
11. Calculating Probabilities. Complete the following table by using the information in problem
1. Calculate the historical probabilities of below normal, normal, and above normal precipitation levels for the different ENSO phases.
Probability hint: probability is calculated as the number years with a particular precipitation level divided by the total number of years with that phase. For the below normal precipitation category and all years, the probability would be calculated as follows
10 / 30

.
333

.
33 because 10 years out of the 30 had below normal precipitation. For above normal precipitation in neutral years, the probability is 3 / 10

.
30 because 3 years had above average precipitation out of 10 neutral years. These two hints, along with all precipitation and La Niña years, are completed on the table to help you. Be sure to put the formula and answer in each box.

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Precipitation Level
ENSO Phase Below Normal Near Normal Above Normal All Precipitation
Levels
All Years
El Niño
La Niña
Neutral
10/30=.333
33.3%
1/9=.111
11.1%
6/11=.545
54.5%
3/10=.30
30%
10/30=.333
33.3%
2/9=.222
22.2%
4/11=.364
36.4%
4/10=.40
40%
10/30=.333
33.3%
6/9=.667
66.7%
1/11=.090
9%
3/10=.30
30%
30/30=1
100%
9/30=.30
30%
11/30=.367
36.7%
10/30=.333
33.3%
12. The probabilities in the table represent precipitation probabilistic forecasts for precipitation conditional on the ENSO phase. Use the values in the probability table to answer the following questions. Round your answer to the nearest ones. a) What is the probability of below normal precipitation occurring, if the ENSO phase is
La Niña?
Hint: use the column below normal and row La Niña.
55% b) What is the probability of below normal precipitation occurring, if the ENSO event is
El Niño?
11% c) What is the probability of near normal precipitation occurring, if the ENSO event is neutral?
40% d) Why do the probabilities differ in questions 12 a, b, and c? Hint: recall the material form Learning Module 3 on the scientific aspects of ENSO.
In the different ENSO phases, the warm pool of water and the jet stream differ.
These differences lead to different climate conditions.

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Activity Five - Inferencing Beyond the Data - Optional
An important aspect in science and learning is the ability to make inferences beyond the data.
The problems in this activity are designed to allow the student to make such inferences. In making inferences, it is important that scientists provide reasons, which support their inference.
Materials Necessary Graphs from Activity Two for problems 5, 6, and 7
1. Cloud Cover. Examine the graphs from Activity Two, which ENSO phase years (La Niña,
El Niño, or neutral) would you expect Bryan / College Station to experience the most cloudy days during the period December through February? Provide a reason for your answer.
El Niño phase years may have more cloudy days because rain is associated with clouds and
El Niño years generally have higher precipitation.
2. Solar Radiation. Using the graphs from Activity Two, which ENSO phase years (La Niña, El
Niño, or neutral) would you expect Bryan / College Station to experience the most solar radiation during the period December through February? Provide a reason for your answer.
Hint: solar radiation is energy transported from the sun to the earth through electromagnetic waves.
La Niña phase years have fewer clouds, therefore, more energy from the sun will reach the earth and we will experience more solar radiation.
3. Daytime Temperatures. Using the graphs from Activity Two, which ENSO phase years (La
Niña, El Niño, or neutral) would you expect Bryan / College Station to experience higher daytime temperatures during the period December through February? Provide a reason for your answer.
La Niña phase years have fewer clouds, therefore, more energy from the sun will reach the earth and we will experience higher daytime temperatures.
.

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Materials Necessary Internet access
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) issues three month long climate forecasts for the U.S. These forecasts can be found at the following internet web site: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead01/off_index.html
. Be sure to read how to interpret the forecasts. One important aspect of forecasts is lead-time. Lead-time is defined as the time between when NOAA issues a forecast and the period the forecast covers.
For example, a 4.5 month lead time forecast issued October 15, would be for climate conditions occurring in the three months March, April, and May, beginning 4.5 months into the future. This forecast would be given by the link 4.5mn on the web site.
1. Seasonal Climate Forecasts. Go to the above web site and find the 0.5 month and 2.5 month lead-time forecasts. Use these forecasts to answer the following questions. Be sure to print out and hand-in the forecasts.
2. 0.5 Month Lead-time forecast. Is the area you live in forecasted to have above, normal, or below normal precipitation for the three months beginning approximately two weeks from the time the forecast was issued?
The students’ answers will depend on area of country and forecast issued.
3. 2.5 Month Lead-time forecast. Is the area you live in forecasted to have above, normal, or below normal precipitation for the three months starting approximately 2.5 months from the day the forecast was issued?
The students’ answers will depend on area of country and forecast issued.
4. Inference Concerning Accuracy of the Forecasts. Which forecast would you expect to be the most accurate, lead-times of 0.5 months or 2.5 months? Support your answer.
The 0.5 would be expected to be the most accurate. Less time between when issued and period forecasted.

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For the Teacher only – example seasonal climate forecast
The following map provides an example of one such forecast from this site. This map contains a forecast for combined precipitation levels for the months November and December 2003 and
January 2004. The forecast was issue on October 16, 2003. The lead-time associated with this forecast is, therefore, approximately one-half month. Lead-time is the time from October 16
(day the forecast was issued) to the start of November (start of the period the forecast is for).
How to read the NOAA forecast maps.
In this map A stands for above normal precipitation, B stands for below normal precipitation, and EC equal chance for above, normal, and below precipitation. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead01/off_index.html
Accessed 10/17/03, precipitation outlook for November and December 2003, and January 2004
(NDJ) at a lead time of one-half month issued October 16, 2003