CSI.v.4
CPUC GHG Modeling
11/5/2007
California Solar Initiative (CSI)
A. Overview
The California Solar Initiative (CSI) is California program to encourage installation,
research, and market transformation of solar photovoltaic systems in California. The CSI
program implements the Governor’s Million Solar Roofs initiative, with a target of
installing 3,000MW of solar in California.
B. Recommended value(s)
Two reference cases are developed, in the business-as-usual case solar continues to be
installed at the current pace which results in a total of approximately 1,091MW based on
estimates included in the CEC 2008-2018 Load Forecast. The aggressive policy
reference case achieves the 3,000MW target in 2020. For the target case that achieves
1990 emissions levels we assume 3,000MW of solar is installed.
Since the reference case of approximately 1,091MW is already included in the CEC
2008-2018 load forecast used in the analysis, both the impact on peak load and energy are
already accounted for in the load forecast. In the 3000MW case, an impact of an
additional 1,909MW of PV is subtracted from the load forecast. We assume a capacity
factor of 18% and a coincident peak load of 45.8% based on the CEC 2008-2018
forecasts to make this adjustment.
Two cases are similarly evaluated for the costs of PV, a reference case that does not
assume any cost improvements over time (no market transformation) and has costs of $8
per watt in $2006 dollars. The no market transformation case is the same case
assumption for all resources. In the market transformation case, the costs are assumed to
improve to $4.60/W by 2016 in $/W.
C. Data sources
The following table shows the assumptions used to compute the CSI impacts on the
State’s load and energy requirements based on the revised 2008-2018 load forecast.
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11/5/2007
Assumptions on CSI
CEC Scenarios Analysis, Appendix E.2
De-Rate Factor by Area - PV
Summer Peak 12 PM-6 PM
CNP15
CSCE
CSDG
LADWP
SMUD
CZP26
Simple Average of CA
48%
45%
42%
46%
48%
46%
46%
PV Capacity Factor
18%
CEC Revised Load Growth Forecast, Figure 11, pg. 31
Forecast of Peak Impacts of CSI
MW
New PV Installations, 2018, coincident peak
500
New PV Installations, 2018, nameplate
1091
2020 PV Goal
3000
Additional PV nameplate needed to meet goal
1909
Peak Load Reduction of Additional PV
875
Energy Load Reduction of Addition PV (GWh)
1,380
The other component important to the costs of reducing CO2 emissions levels is the
installed cost of CO2 systems. This is evaluated in two components, the incentive costs
that are collected in retail rates, and the customer costs. Together the incentive cost plus
the customer costs equal to the total cost of the system.
The following figure, from the 2007 CPUC Self-Generation Incentive Program report on
Solar PV Costs and Incentive Factors Report forecasts total installed costs of PV systems.
The 2006 costs in this study (most recent reviewed in the analysis) show approximately
$8/W installed as the central estimate. This decreases to $4.60/W in $2006 by 2016.
Therefore, significant market transformation is illustrated in the estimates.
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To be consistent with the treatment of all other resources in the analysis, the conservative
estimate of no market transformation is assumed in the reference cases. In the sensitivity
planned that includes market transformation effects the costs of PV are assumed to follow
the central estimate in the study.
The following table shows the costs used in each of these cases.
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11/5/2007
Assumptions of Average Installed Cost of PV Forecast
No Market
Transformation
Costs in $2006 $/W Installed
2008 $
8.00
2016 $
8.00
2020* $
8.00
With Market
Transformation
$
7.18
$
4.60
$
4.60
Costs in Nominal $/W
No Market
With Market
(Assuming 2.5% inflation)
Transformation
Transformation
2008 $
8.41 $
7.54
2016 $
10.24 $
5.89
2020 $
11.30 $
6.50
*Forecast from 2016 to 2020 is done to keep costs constant in real terms.
Source:
CPUC Self-Generation Incentive Program
Solar PV Costs and Incentive Factors
Prepared by ITRON
February, 2007
Of the total installed cost, the CSI incentive program is offsetting the costs. CSI is
designed with ‘steps’ that decrease the incentive over time as more and more PV
installations are made. The steps are defined in the program by utility and sector,
residential, non-residential, and government.
The following two tables provide the resulting costs and impacts of the CSI program for
the two reference cases.
Business As Usual Reference Case
CSI in the 2020 Forecast
PG&E
SCE
SDG&E
SMUD
LADWP
NorCalMunis
SoCalMunis
Total
GWh
752
789
180
0
0
0
0
1720.2888
Nameplate MW
477
500
114
0
0
0
0
1091
Coinc MW
Nameplate MW
1,311
1,376
313
0
0
0
0
3000
Coinc MW
218
229
52
0
0
0
0
499.678
Utility Cost
$2020 ($000)
$
894
$
938
$
213
$
$
$
$
$
2,045
Customer Cost
$2020 ($000)
$
2,702
$
2,837
$
645
$
$
$
$
$
6,185
Utility Cost
$2020 ($000)
$
1,239
$
1,300
$
296
$
$
$
$
$
2,835
Customer Cost
$2020 ($000)
$
7,868
$
8,260
$
1,879
$
$
$
$
$
18,006
Aggressive Policy Reference Case
CSI in the 2020 Forecast
PG&E
SCE
SDG&E
SMUD
LADWP
NorCalMunis
SoCalMunis
Total
GWh
2,067
2,170
494
0
0
0
0
4730.4
4
600
630
143
0
0
0
0
1374