Headers will be added later Validation of annual variations in satellite based transpiration and soil moisture using tree ring data De Jeu RAM1, Miralles DG1, Van Marle MJE1, Dorigo WA2, Wagner W2, and Liu YY3 1VU University Amsterdam, FALW, Dept. Hydrology and GeoEnvironmental Sciences, De Boelelaan 1085, 1081 HV Amsterdam, the Netherlands,Richard.de.jeu@falw.vu.nl, 2Institute for Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing, Vienna University of Technology, Vienna, Austria, 3Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia Abstract: Recently, a multi-decadal dataset of satellite based soil moisture and the evaporative flux have been developed. This dataset is based on different satellite observations and has been validated extensively with in situ observations and models. However, these validation studies have always been applied on short periods but never evaluated long term variations (> 10 years). This study aims on the use of tree ring data for annual variation validation. As a first test case, the Los Lobos Creek site in central California was selected with a 21 year record (19842004) of tree ring width data from 27 blue oak trees (Quercus Douglasii). The dominant tree ring signal was retrieved by applying an empirical orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis on the normalized tree ring widths resulting in one dominant signal that described the temporal behaviour of the 27 trees for 80%. This signal was then compared to soil moisture and transpiration rates from the satellite based Global Land surface Evaporation: the Amsterdam Methodology (GLEAM) Model. The analysis revealed a strong relationship between annual tree ring width and transpiration in June (R=0.79) and soil moisture in April (R=0.82). These first preliminary results give us confidence in the reliability of the annual variations of the different products. Both the soil moisture and transpiration fluxes capture the extreme years as given by the tree ring width. Although this is still based on one site we believe that data from the tree ring data bank can have a strong potential as a validation tool for long record satellite datasets. However, further research on other sites is still necessary to confirm the consistency of such an approach. Keywords: ‘Evaporation; soil moisture; tree ring data; satellite data’. 1 INTRODUCTION The hydrological cycle is expected to accelerate as temperatures rise and the capacity of the air to carry moisture increases (Dolman and De Jeu, 2010). This acceleration may lead to increased global precipitation, faster evaporation, and a general exacerbation of extreme hydrologic anomalies, floods, and droughts (Easterling, et al., 2000; Meehl, et al., 2000; Milly, et al., 2002; Wentz, et al., 2007; Ziegler, et al., 2003). As shown by the IPCC such long-term, large-scale, human-induced changes to global water and energy cycles could interact with natural variability (e.g., the El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon) on daily to decadal timescales and may adversely affect social/economic well-being in many regions of the world (Ziegler, et al., 2003). Datasets from satellites could be used to study the impact of climate, but till now they are often considered to be too short to evaluate the effect of climate change on hydrology. Ziegler et al. (2003) estimated that data lengths longer than 30 years are needed to detect the acceleration of the hydrological cycle. With the merging of different historical satellite datasets it slowly become possible to reach the required time record. Headers will be added later In the last years several attempts have been made to build long term evaporation and soil moisture datasets. Liu et al., (2009, 2011) developed an approach to merge both active and passive microwave satellite soil moisture data into one 30+ year soil moisture record and Miralles et al.(2011a and b) build a methodology to create a 24 year daily record of evaporation fluxes, including interception, snow sublimation, bare soil evaporation and transpiration. These datasets have been validated extensively with in situ observations and models, but never on a multi-decadal time scale. However, validation at this time scale is needed to quantify both the quality and usefulness of these datasets for climate studies. In this study we want to analyse a possibility to validate a long term satellite based dataset using tree ring data. Tree ring data is being used for many purposes, but mainly for the reconstruction of temperatures and climates in the past (Briffa, 2000). Tree rings chronologies are sensitive to climate variations and are successfully used to reconstruct evaporation, precipitation and drought fluctuations (Kagawa et al., 2003; Case and MacDonald, 1995; Jacoby and D’Arrigo, 1995) and temperature at the higher latitudes (Briffa et al., 2004). The preservation of climate records in tree ring data makes it potentially suitable for independent satellite validation. In this study, a tree ring site in central California (Griffin, 2005) is selected to validate satellite based records of transpiration and soil moisture. The results from this study are described below. 2 2.1 METHODS Study Area Tree ring data is obtained from the International Tree-Ring Data bank. Tree ring data is free available and maintained by the NOAA Paleoclimatology Program and World Data Center for Paleoclimatology. The data bank host more than 2000 sites over six continents (see http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/treering). For this study we used tree rings from 27 different blue oak trees (Quercus Douglasii) from the Los Lobos Creek site, located in western California (34.922 ºN and 119.2432 ºW) (Griffin, 2005). The region has a mild climate with temperatures round 16 degrees in winter time and about 25 degrees in summer time. The temporal variation of precipitation is also high with dominant rain events in winter and a lack of rainfall in the summer period (See Figure 1). Figure 1: Yearly average patterns of temperature and precipitation for the1984-2004 period. The collected tree ring width data was normalized and detrended. An Empirical Orthogonal Function Analysis (EOF) was used to determine the most dominant temporal signal over the 27 trees. EOF is a commonly used statistical method to extract dominant signals from tree ring datasets (Briffa et al., 2002). In our case we derived 5 modes from the analysis on all the 27 trees, but only the first mode, describing 80 % of the temporal signal, was used for further analysis. Headers will be added later 2.2 GLEAM data In our analysis we made use of data from the Global Land-surface Evaporation: the Amsterdam Methodology (GLEAM) model. GLEAM is driven by large set of remote sensing observations from different satellites (Miralles et al., 2011a) and produces daily estimates of actual evaporation (and its different components, including tall canopy transpiration). GLEAM is based on the Priestley and Taylor (PT) evaporation formula in combination with the Gash analytical model of forest rainfall interception (Gash, 1979; Valente et al.,1997) and uses a soil water module to calculate the soil water stress. The soil water module consists of a multilayer bucket model driven by precipitation and calculating soil moisture for different layers within the rootzone. Satellite-measured surface soil moisture is used and assimilated in the first layer of the profile by means of a Kalman Filter. A more detailed description on GLEAM can be found in (Miralles et al., 2011a and b). In this study we will make use of the assimilated soil moisture and tall canopy transpiration of GLEAM version 1A. This dataset spans a period from 1984-2007 and produces daily data at a 0.25 degree scale. Data of the study area is extracted from this global dataset and compared with the tree ring width data 3 RESULTS The relationship between transpiration and soil moisture and tree ring width was analysed. Spearman ranked correlation coefficients between annual ring width and monthly average transpiration and soil moisture over the 1984 to 2004 period were calculated and plotted in Figure 2. The transpiration graph shows a strong tree growth response from October till October with a peak in June (R=0.74). The soil moisture graph also shows high correlations with tree ring width but the peak is a bit earlier in April (R=0.82). This means that tree growth is highly dependent on transpiration and soil moisture and first benefits from available water in early spring and then later on from high transpiration rates. Figure 2: Spearman ranked correlation coefficients of monthly average values of transpiration and soil moisture with yearly ring width of the Q. Douglasii (blue oak) for the1984-2004 period. Figure 3 shows the actual time series of the average June transpiration and April soil moisture versus the first EOF mode of the normalized trees. This graph shows a strong similarity between productive tree growth years and high transpiration rates, especially for the years 1993, 1995 and 1998. The years 1986 and 1988 were less clear, although they are very well visible in the soil moisture rates. Apparently for these years the growth was more dominated by water availability. The less productive years 1990, 1994, 1997 and 2002 showed both low soil moisture values and low transpiration rates Headers will be added later Figure 3: Time series of normalized dominant tree ring width as obtained by the first EOF mode (dashed line) vs average June transpiration rates and April soil moisture values (solid lines). 4 DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS In this study the potential use of tree ring width data for validation purposes of multi-decadal satellite based datasets is presented. A site in California was selected as a first test case. Twenty seven trees were analysed and compared to satellite based transpiration and soil moisture as derived from the GLEAM model. Similar patterns were found in both the tree ring data and the transpiration and soil moisture datasets. Productive years corresponded with high transpiration rates and high soil moisture values and the opposite was found for less productive years. From this long term validation exercise it became clear that the GLEAM model products for this site had the same inter annual information as the independent tree ring dataset. This study gives us confidence that tree ring data could be used to validate annual variability in long term satellite data sets, especially for regions where the tree-growth response is highly dependent on the weather conditions. Although this is still based on one site we believe that data from the tree ring data bank can be used as an alternative validation tool for multi-decadal satellite based datasets. However, further research on other sites is still necessary to confirm the consistency of this approach Headers will be added later REFERENCES Briffa KR, (2000) Annual climate variability in the Holocene: interpreting the message of ancient trees, Quaternary Sci. Rev. 19 (1), 87-105 Briffa KR, et al. (2002) Tree-ring width and density around the Northern Hemisphere: Part 1. 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