1 Climate Change, Aboveground-Belowground Interactions, and Species Range Shifts 2 3 Wim H. Van der Putten 4 Department of Terrestrial Ecology 5 Netherlands Institute of Ecology (NIOO-KNAW) / Laboratory of Nematology, Wageningen 6 University 7 P.O. Box 50, 6700 AB / PO Box 8123, 6700 ES 8 Wageningen, The Netherlands 9 Email w.vanderputten@nioo.knaw.nl 10 11 Details : 12 Abstract 150 words 13 Main text : 7087 14 Figure legends 300 words 15 References 108 16 No. Figures 2 17 No Tables or photographs : 0 18 No pages : 37 19 20 21 22 Abstract 23 24 Changes in climate, land use, fire incidence, and ecological connections all may contribute to 25 current species range shifts. Species shift range individually, and not all species shift range at the 26 same time and rate. This will cause community reorganization in both the old and new range. In 1 27 terrestrial ecosystems, range shifts will alter aboveground-belowground interactions, influencing 28 species abundance, community composition, ecosystem processes and services, and feedbacks 29 within communities and ecosystems. Thus, range shifts may result in no-analog communities 30 where foundation species and community genetics play unprecedented roles, possibly leading to 31 novel ecosystems. Long-distance dispersal can enhance the disruption of aboveground- 32 belowground interactions of plants, herbivores, pathogens, symbiotic mutualists, and decomposer 33 organisms. These effects most likely will be stronger for latitudinal than for altitudinal range 34 shifts. Disrupted aboveground-belowground interactions may have influenced historical post- 35 glacial range shifts as well. Assisted migration without considering aboveground-belowground 36 interactions could enhance risks of such range-shift induced invasions. 37 38 Key words: climate warming, extinction, invasiveness, geographic range, multitrophic 39 interactions, no-analog communities 40 41 Introduction 42 43 A range, or distribution, is the geographical area where a species can be found. The range is 44 determined by a large number of environmental factors, including climate, soil type and species 45 interactions. Over geological time scales, adaptive radiation, speciation and plate tectonics can 46 also influence the range of a species. A species range can shift by one or more changes in the 47 environmental conditions, for example climate warming, land use change, new ecological 48 connections, or artificial introduction in a new environment. Nevertheless, many reports on 49 current massive range shifts of species towards higher altitudes and latitudes suggest that climate 50 warming is a key driving factor (Grabherr et al. 1994, Walther et al. 2002, Parmesan & Yohe 51 2003, Parmesan 2006, Walther 2010). When land use change would have been the main driver, 52 species range shifts should have occurred in more directions. 2 53 Compared to historical geographic range shifts, such as those that have taken place 54 during glaciation-deglaciation cycles over the past 2 million years (Bush 2002), the rate of current 55 climate warming is unprecedented (Walther et al. 2002). The first reports suggested that many 56 species fail to keep up with climate warming (Warren et al. 2001, Thomas et al. 2004, Thuiller et 57 al. 2005). However, more recent studies suggest that at least some species might respond 58 adequately to climate warming by shifting their ranges (Chen et al. 2011) and that a number of 59 species can reach enhanced dominance in the new range (Walther et al. 2002, Tamis et al. 2005, 60 Engelkes et al. 2008). Thus far, most predictions on range shifts have been made independent of 61 species interactions and the question is whether including species interactions may change the 62 outcome of the model predictions (Lavergne et al. 2010, Van der Putten et al. 2010). 63 Species abundance can be influenced by resource availability, predation, propagule 64 availability, symbioses, competition and facilitation. As all these factors may vary between the 65 old and new range, species that can move may not necessarily encounter suitable circumstances 66 for establishment, growth and reproduction. Moreover, these factors may also vary during time 67 since introduction, which can affect community composition in a dynamic way. Species 68 interactions can drive, or be subject of evolution, such as can be seen in highly specialized 69 pollination or parasitism patterns, or in other symbiotic mutualisms. These evolutionary processes 70 may also be disrupted by climate change, whereas new evolutionary processes may be initiated 71 (Lavergne et al. 2010). 72 Besides range shifts, species may also respond to climate warming and other 73 environmental changes via adaptation of local populations to changing environmental conditions. 74 For example, there is scope for genetic adaptation of plants to climate warming, but there are also 75 limitations that may contribute to diversity loss (Jump & Peñuelas 2005). Climate warming is 76 highly multi-dimensional. Local effects of climate warming may be due to changes in 77 temperature, precipitation, or length of growing season. Species that shift range also will be 3 78 exposed to different day length (Jump & Peñuelas 2005). It is not well known how adaptation and 79 migration interact during range shifts (Lavergne et al. 2010). 80 Terrestrial ecosystems are composed of aboveground and belowground subsystems, 81 which have been examined separately for many years, whereas the different subcomponents 82 clearly interact with each other (Wardle 2002). Plants connect the aboveground and belowground 83 subsystems and interactions belowground can, directly or indirectly, influence aboveground 84 interactions vice versa. Species in these aboveground and belowground subsystems are differently 85 susceptible to climate warming (Berg et al. 2010), leading to – at least temporarily – new species 86 combinations in the new range. As aboveground-belowground interactions have the potential to 87 impose selection on plants (Schweitzer et al. 2008), range shifts may influence selection and 88 adaptation. In spite of the rapidly increasing interest in the subject of aboveground-belowground 89 interactions, climate warming-induced range shift effects have been poorly studied thus far 90 (Bardgett & Wardle 2010). In this article, I will combine reported knowledge on range shifts with 91 information on the functional role of aboveground-belowground species interactions in 92 community organization and ecosystem processes. 93 Belowground subsystems include biota that interact with plants directly (herbivores, 94 pathogens and symbionts), or indirectly (natural enemies of the directly interacting species and 95 components of the decomposer subsystem). These direct and indirect interactions with plant roots 96 can influence aboveground biota, and can result in effects that feed back to the soil subsystem 97 (Wardle et al. 2004). Expanding from a previous review where it was argued that trophic 98 interactions need to be taken into account when predicting consequences of climate warming 99 (Van der Putten et al. 2010), here I will focus on how range shifts may influence community 100 organization and ecosystem processes. I do not pretend to be complete in my review, and part of 101 my conclusions will be speculative, but I hope to encourage thinking about species range shifts 102 from a more complex (and realistic) ecological perspective. 4 103 I will discuss recent work on aboveground-belowground interactions in relation to 104 climate warming-induced species range shifts. I will compare altitudinal gradients, where 105 dispersal distances may not have been a major limitation, with latitudinal gradients where range 106 shifts may disrupt aboveground-belowground interactions more severely owing to larger dispersal 107 distances and differences in dispersal rates. I will also provide a brief paleoecological view and 108 discuss how aboveground-belowground interactions in the past may have been influenced during 109 deglaciation periods. In the next sections, community and ecosystem consequences of range shifts 110 will be reviewed from the perspective of aboveground-belowground interactions. I will discuss 111 community assembly processes, including species loss and species gain, from an aboveground- 112 belowground perspective while discussing their roles in no-analog communities (and novel 113 ecosystems), foundation species and assisted migration. 114 115 Species range shifts 116 117 Patterns along altitudinal gradients 118 119 The earliest signals showing that the current rapid climate warming of the past decades is leading 120 to plant range shifts result from work along altitudinal gradients in Alpine ecosystems (Grabherr 121 et al. 1994, Walther et al. 2002, Parmesan & Yohe 2003). Alpine vegetation responses to climate 122 warming may depend on plant type and altitude. For example, along an elevation gradient, shrubs 123 expanded 5.6 per cent per decade between 2400 and 2500 m above sea level. However, above 124 2500 m there were unexpected patterns of regression, which were associated with increased 125 precipitation and permafrost degradation (Cannone et al. 2007). 126 At lower altitudes in mountains effects of climate warming are difficult to be 127 disentangled from those of changes unrelated to climate, such as land use change. At high 128 altitudes, where land use does not play a major role, effects of climate warming are revealed more 5 129 clearly (Cannone et al. 2007). Nevertheless, even in low-altitude areas like the Jura (France), 130 effects of warming could be detected over a 20 years period (Lenoir et al. 2008, Lenoir et al. 131 2010). At a sub-Arctic island, analyses of 40 years of species data revealed an average upward 132 elevation shift of half the plant species (Le Roux & McGeoch 2008). Both here and in the Jura 133 not all plant species, but a subset responded to climate warming. Remarkably, although the 134 species that determined the pattern of upslope expansion may be considered highly responding 135 species, the response was still lower than expected based on the rate of warming (Le Roux & 136 McGeoch 2008). Such species-specific range shift responses may result in no-analog 137 communities at higher elevations, existing of the original plant species and range expanders. 138 Downhill species shifts can also be observed, for example in California, where water deficit at 139 higher elevations increased over time (Crimmins et al. 2011). 140 While focusing on patterns of altitudinal range shifts, less work has been done on 141 consequences for altered species interactions in relation to climate warming. In general, high 142 altitude plant communities may be structured more by facilitative than by competitive interactions 143 (Callaway et al. 2002). However, plant facilitation could also be influenced by aboveground and 144 belowground multitrophic interactions, which may need more attention when understanding 145 consequences of climate warming in high altitude habitats. As range shift distances are relatively 146 short in altitudinal gradients, dispersal may be less limited. However, aboveground-belowground 147 interaction patterns may still be altered in highly complex ways. For example, the development of 148 bare soil surface at higher altitudes (Walther et al. 2002) will have considerable influence on 149 belowground decomposition processes (Wardle et al. 1999). In contrast, ecosystem regression 150 towards pioneer stages can affect the outcome of plant community interactions by a shift from 151 symbiotic (arbuscular) mycorrhizal fungi towards a more prominent role for soil-borne pathogens 152 (Kardol et al. 2006). In general, global change effects on soil biota are relatively well predictable 153 (Blankinship et al. 2011), but interactive consequences of climate warming, such as altered frost 6 154 incidence, rainfall patterns, plant types, and plant cover may complicate predictions of responses 155 of soil biota and their feedback effects to plants and aboveground interactions. 156 157 Patterns along latitudinal gradients 158 159 Initially patterns of latitudinal range shifts have been predicted based on altitudinal shifts 160 (Walther et al. 2002). Climate effects of one meter in altitudinal range shift may be considered 161 equal to 6.1 km latitude (Parmesan & Yohe 2003). However, these conversion factors do not 162 account for dispersal limitations that may arise, for example due to poor dispersal capacity, 163 effects of habitat fragmentation, or limitations of vector organisms. In north-western Europe, for 164 example, there are clear patterns in seed dispersal limitations as some vectors, especially large 165 vertebrates, are much more limited in migration now than in the past (Ozinga et al. 2009). Such 166 limitations also may apply to insect range shifts. In a study in the UK, habitat specialist butterflies 167 were constrained in range expansion following climate warming due to lack of connections 168 between the specific habitats. Only habitat generalists could keep up with climate warming, 169 because their dispersal was less limited by unsuitable corridors (Warren et al. 2001). 170 Poor dispersal capacities of certain soil biota, especially soil fauna, have been mentioned 171 in a number of studies. For example, the highest nematode diversity occurs in temperate zones, 172 where there are more root feeders of higher plants than in the tropics. The lower nematode 173 diversity in the Antarctic than in Arctic zones suggests that dispersal limitations are, at least in 174 part, causing the latitudinal zonation of nematodes (Procter 1984). Also within latitudes, there 175 may be gradients, but these are more related to community similarity than to community richness. 176 For example, in a comparison of nematodes and microbial assemblages among 30 chalk 177 grasslands in the UK, roughly scattered across a west-east gradient of 200 km long, similarity in 178 both nematodes and bacteria declined with distance (Monroy et al. 2012). Therefore, soil 179 communities may vary with distance, irrespective of orientation (Fierer et al. 2009). Hence range 7 180 shifts in any direction can cause that plant species may become exposed to novel soil biota, while 181 becoming disconnected from the specific biota with which they usually have been interacting. 182 Applications of findings from altitudinal shifts for range shift predictions in lowlands 183 may also be complicated for other reasons. In a study of 44 years (1965-2008) of climate 184 warming of lowland and highland forests in France, latitudinal range shifts were expected in the 185 lowland forests. However, temperature response lags in lowland forests were 3.1 times stronger 186 than altitudinal range shifts in highland forests (Bertrand et al. 2011). There are several possible 187 explanations: lowland forests may have proportionally more species that are persistent to 188 warming, there may be fewer opportunities for short-distance escapes, and the greater habitat 189 fragmentation in lowlands may prevent range shifting. 190 Range shifts can be limited by the availability of sites for establishment. This has been 191 shown for butterflies (Warren et al. 2001), but also for plants. For example Leithead et al. (2010) 192 showed that range-shifting tree species from temperate forest in Canada, such as red maple (Acer 193 rubrum) can only establish in boreal red pine (Pinus resinosa) forest if there are large tree-fall 194 gaps. Native red pine forest species, on the other hand, were not influenced by gap size or gap 195 age. Interestingly, pine dominance in red pine forest is maintained by wildfires, which selectively 196 omit competitors and re-set succession. Fire incidence can be altered by climate warming. As 197 southern tree species establish faster in tree-fall gaps than wild fires are occurring, these 198 combined effects may result in enhanced colonization of northern forests by southern tree species. 199 Tropical lowlands, on the other hand, may be especially sensitive to climate warming, because 200 the tropical climate now is warmer than at any time in the last 2 million years (Bush 2002). The 201 spread of species from tropical forests to cooler areas may be constrained by long dispersal 202 distances and poor colonization sites along the dispersal routes. Therefore, it has been suggested 203 that tropical regions may be sensitive to species loss due to climate warming. Moreover, lowland 204 tropics lack a species pool to provide new species that may favor the new climate conditions 205 (Colwell et al. 2008). Range shifts of species from tropical lowlands to tropical highlands are 8 206 possible, but they may result in depauperate lowland plant communities, which will be 207 increasingly dominated by early successional species (Bush 2002, Colwell et al. 2008). 208 Aboveground-belowground interactions have been investigated in relation to latitudinal 209 range shifts. A comparison of range expanding plant species from Eurasia and other continents 210 with phylogenetically related species from the invaded range showed that both types of range 211 expanders develop less pathogenic activity in their soils than related natives. Moreover, the range 212 expanders on average were more tolerant of, or better defended against two polyphagous 213 invertebrate aboveground herbivores, which coincided with induced levels of phenolic 214 compounds, which are general secondary metabolites used for plant defense (Engelkes et al. 215 2008). Therefore, successful range expanding plant species may have invasive properties 216 irrespective of their origin. Interestingly, although belowground and aboveground effect sizes 217 were additive, there was no correlation between aboveground and belowground effect strengths 218 (Morriën et al. 2011). Thus, plant species that resisted, or tolerated, belowground enemy effects 219 in the new range are not necessarily well protected against generalist aboveground herbivores. 220 Analysis of soil samples along a latitudinal gradient of a range expanding plant species 221 (Tragopogon dubius) showed soil pathogen effects in a number of sites in the native range, but 222 not in the part of the range where this species had shifted into recently (Van Grunsven et al. 223 2010). Thus, range shifts enable plants to escape from their original soil pathogens, whereas 224 successful range shifters were well defended against aboveground polyphagous herbivorous 225 insects (Van Grunsven et al. 2007, Engelkes et al. 2008). These results have been based on 226 growth trials in greenhouse mesocosms. The next step should be to determine the consequences 227 of altered belowground and aboveground biotic interactions under field conditions. 228 229 Historical patterns of range shifts 230 9 231 Species range shifts have occurred throughout the Earth’s history. For example, it is well 232 documented that glacial cycles have caused species range shifts (Jackson & Overpeck 2000, 233 Williams et al. 2007, Willis et al. 2010). There have been approximately 20 cycles of glaciation 234 and deglaciation during the Quaternary (the last 2.58 mln years), especially on the northern 235 Hemisphere (Dawson et al. 2011). The last ice age occurred about 10,000 years ago. Based on 236 pollen records from late Quaternary Europe paleo-vegetation maps have been constructed at the 237 level of formations. As these vegetation maps are not analogue with contemporary vegetation, 238 Huntley (1990a) concluded that the macroclimate in the late Quaternary may have been 239 completely different from the present one. However, a complication of comparing paleobiology 240 data with contemporary ecosystems is that current vegetation in Europe has been strongly 241 influenced by human activities and that the continent is highly heterogeneous (Huntley 1990a). In 242 spite of these uncertainties, it is still quite likely that communities have become reorganized over 243 and over again during cycles of warming and cooling (Jackson & Overpeck 2000). 244 Historic range shift data still cast doubts about the rate of plant dispersal. The proposed 245 average of 1 km per year northward spread during deglaciation periods is most likely ten times as 246 fast as the average dispersal capacity of individual plant species. This discrepancy in migration 247 distances can be due to a hitherto undetected role of long-distance dispersal (Loarie et al. 2009). It 248 is likely that long-distance dispersal has played an important role in pre-historic times. In a 249 modeling study (K.M. Meyer and M. van Oorschot, unpublished results), long-distance dispersal 250 turned out to be crucial for enemy release, in their case root-feeding nematodes. Long-distance 251 dispersal of plants may also reduce their exposure to specialized aboveground enemies, because 252 they may have difficulties reaching the new plant populations. Therefore, it can be expected that 253 also during deglaciation range shifts plant species may have become exposed to different 254 aboveground-belowground interactions. 255 256 It is also possible that (aboveground or belowground) enemies have promoted tree range shifts (Moorcroft et al. 2006). In a modeling study, natural enemies were able to influence the 10 257 spread of tree species into ecosystems where equally strong competitors were present. Adding 258 host-specific pathogens to the model resulted in dispersal distances equal to the ones that have 259 been reported by paleo-ecologists based on pollen patterns (Moorcroft et al. 2006). Obviously, the 260 issue of long-distance dispersal needs more emphasis in relation to range shifts and relationships 261 with aboveground and belowground natural enemies and their antagonists. This might also 262 provide a different view on evolution during glaciation-deglaciation cycles. 263 In a review of range post-glacial expansion effects on the evolution of insects, it was 264 concluded that that rapid evolution of dispersal may be promoted in the expansion zones (Hill et 265 al. 2011). This suggests a positive feedback between range expansion and the evolution of traits 266 (in this case dispersal) that accelerate range expansion capacity. Thus, the feedback between 267 ecology and evolution will be strongest at range boundaries where selection will be strongest and 268 where population bottlenecks are common (Hill et al. 2011). These data may, however, not be 269 translated to present day range shifts, because of the unprecedented rate of the current warming. 270 Moreover, modern landscapes are much more fragmented than the original post-glacial 271 landscapes, which may lead to loss of genetic variation, rather than enabling trait evolution (Hill 272 et al. 2011). 273 Current insights in aboveground-belowground species interactions may be used to assess 274 how they have been operating and changing during pre-historical changes in vegetation types. For 275 example, in a flood plain in Pakistan, isotope records reveal shifts from C3 to C4 grass-dominated 276 ecosystems (Barry et al. 2002). There were also pulses in (vertebrate) fauna turn-over resulting in 277 a loss of biodiversity and the pace of extinction from this region accelerated once C4 vegetation 278 occurred on the flood plain. Over all, species composition was relatively steady, with brief, 279 irregularly spaced temporal spikes of species turnover and ecological change, however, time 280 intervals of the assessment were minimally 100,000 years (Barry et al. 2002). Opposite to these 281 aboveground changes in vertebrate fauna, selective plant removal studies in New Zealand 282 (Wardle et al. 1999) and sampling under C3 and C4 grasses in the United States (Symstad et al. 11 283 2000, Porazinska et al. 2003) suggest that conversion of C3 into C4 grasslands will have had very 284 little effects on soil fauna or aboveground arthropod diversity. However, C4 grass vegetation may 285 have been a response to warming and drier conditions, which could have had a much stronger 286 effect on soil community composition and the resulting ecosystem functioning (Blankinship et al. 287 2011). 288 Another example concerns the last post glacial period in Europe, during which mixed 289 deciduous forests received their current distribution around 8,000 B.P. Relative tree abundance 290 changed in those forests over the past 13,000 years, as they were dominated first by Pinus, then 291 by Tilia and during the last millennia by Fagus species (Huntley 1990b). How exactly these 292 vegetation changes have taken place and at what rate is difficult to explain, because these data are 293 amongst others based on chord-distance maps that have intervals of 1000 years (Huntley 1990a). 294 Nevertheless, litter composition is known to influence decomposition (Hättenschwiler & Gasser 295 2005) and it will also have influenced soil organisms, such as earthworms (Muys & Lust 1992) 296 and microbes (Ayres et al. 2009, Strickland et al. 2009). These examples show that responses of 297 plant communities to climate changes and consequences for ecosystem processes in the (late) 298 Quaternary may have been quite dynamic. Over these long time periods, climate will be the 299 overarching driver. Belowground-aboveground interactions may have driven community 300 responses at shorter spatial and temporal scales. 301 302 Other drivers of range shifts 303 304 There are some, though not many, examples of range shifts that have been caused by other factors 305 than climate warming or cooling. For example, intensified grazing and fire regimes enabled range 306 expansion of shrubs in Colorado (Archer et al. 1995), whereas El Niño-Southern Oscillation 307 influences frequency and extent of wildfires, which influences tree stand composition in southern 308 USA (Swetnam et al. 1999). Further, there are examples on bird range expansion due to land use 12 309 change. Improved feeding or nesting sites can drive such range shifts. For example, the black- 310 shouldered Kites (Elanus caeruleus) has shifted range into Spain, because the last half of the 311 previous century similarity increased between cultivated Dehesa systems with African savannahs, 312 from where this species originates (Balbontín et al. 2008). 313 Habitat fragmentation, such as caused by intensified land use, can limit the capacity of 314 species range shifts. Currently, this is considered as one of the major constraints for species 315 responses to climate warming (Warren et al. 2001). Habitat fragmentation may also have limited 316 range shifts in post-glacial periods under specific conditions. In Finland, recolonization of former 317 islands after land ice retreat during the Holocene may have been hampered by poor connectedness 318 to the surrounding main land (Heikkilä & Seppä 2003). One possibility to determine if climate 319 warming is the key factor leading to range shift is to determine if the pattern is one-directionally 320 correlated with the warming gradient. However, terrestrial range shifts often cause mosaic-like 321 patterns, rather than wave-like phenomena, which may also be due to the velocity of climate 322 change on land that is far more patchy than in oceans (Burrows et al. 2011). 323 324 Conclusions on species range shifts 325 326 Patterns of individual species range shifts as a response to climate change are less uniform than 327 general averages suggest, for example because there are fast and slow responding species, time 328 lags, downhill instead of uphill range shifts, and long-distance dispersal. Some range shifts are 329 due to other factors than climate, for example changing land use or altered fire incidence. Uphill 330 range shift is better correlated with warming than lowland range shifts towards the poles, 331 probably due to shorter dispersal distances along altitudinal gradients and less constraints such as 332 habitat fragmentation at high elevations. Lowland tropical systems may be highly sensitive to 333 warming, because temperatures are already higher than in the past 2 million years, and dispersal 334 distances to cooler areas are generally large, except in tropical lowland-mountain areas where 13 335 uphill range shifts are possible. Range contractions have been less well studied than range 336 expansions and in some cases downhill range shifts have been recorded, for example more water 337 is more available or microclimate is cooler due to forest regrowth downhill. 338 Aboveground, plants might also be released from their natural enemies, especially in the 339 case of long distance dispersal. This phenomenon is also supposed to have played a role in 340 recolonization during post-glacial range shifts. Therefore, although very little information exists 341 on this subject, disassembly of aboveground-belowground interactions during range shift may 342 influence ecology and evolution during climate warming-induced range shifts. This may happen 343 now, but it can also have played a role during prehistoric range shifts. Such disruptions of 344 aboveground and belowground interactions have the potential of influencing community 345 assemblage processes, as well as the evolution of the species involved. 346 347 Community consequences of altered aboveground-belowground interactions during range 348 shifts 349 350 Understanding species range shifts requires addressing a key question in ecology: how will 351 biodiversity and ecosystem functioning be influenced by the disappearance of existing species 352 and the arrival of new species (Wardle et al. 2011)? The research on range shifts initially has been 353 dominated by reports on species extinctions due to climate warming (Warren et al. 2001, Thuiller 354 et al. 2005), whereas later the emphasis has also included consequences of climate warming for 355 range shifts of exotic invaders (Walther et al. 2009). Other studies have shown that the number of 356 species from warm climate regions in temperate areas is increasing (Tamis et al. 2005), so that 357 there is a group of species that may shift range to higher altitude or latitude in accordance with 358 the rate of climate warming (Chen et al. 2011). 359 Patterns of species gains and losses 360 14 361 Which species will be lost and gained following climate warming depends on a large number of 362 aspects, including the tolerance of species to the environmental change (warming or an associated 363 change, for example drought or extreme weather events), the time needed for species to disperse 364 and the time needed by other species to be lost from communities, sensitivity to habitat 365 fragmentation, habitat specialization, dispersal mode, etc. The net effect of species gains and 366 species loss can be that total biodiversity remains constant, but it can also decrease, or even 367 increase (Jackson & Sax 2010). When time proceeds, net effects of gains and loss of species may 368 vary, so that the total number of species in communities may temporarily go up or down. 369 Although net effects of species gain and loss can be positive locally, worldwide biodiversity will 370 decline, and communities across the world, in the same climatic zones, will appear more similar 371 because of sharing an increasing number of species. 372 The traits of the species coming in and going out will strongly influence their role in 373 ecosystem processes. For example, novel chemistry may influence ecological relationships, as 374 herbivores and decomposer organisms from the invaded range may not be capable of dealing with 375 those compounds (Callaway & Ridenour 2004). Phylogenetic non-relatedness with other species 376 that are native in these communities can play an important role in predicting the success of 377 species introductions (Strauss et al. 2006). Loss or gains of dominant species should have more 378 impact on ecosystem processes (Grime 1998), although some low-abundant species might have 379 disproportional effects. For example, microbial pathogens or endophytes have low abundance, but 380 they can substantially influence plant community composition (Clay & Holah 1999) and, 381 therefore, ecosystem functioning. 382 In general, new species most likely will have characteristics of early successionals, 383 because such species have good dispersal abilities. Long-distance dispersal may enable them to 384 escape from natural enemies, to which early successional plant species can be sensitive (Kardol et 385 al. 2006). For example, range shift of Tragopogon dubius has not yet led to the establishment of 386 specific soil-borne pathogens in the new range (Van Grunsven et al. 2010). Although it is known 15 387 that not all species will respond to climate warming by range shift (Le Roux & McGeoch 2008), 388 little is known about which species will stay behind, what traits they have and what will be their 389 fate on the longer term. 390 391 Assessing ecological consequences 392 393 An increasing amount of studies has assessed how aboveground and belowground interactions 394 may change in relation to plant species gains (Maron & Vilà 2001, Agrawal et al. 2005, Parker & 395 Gilbert 2007, Peltzer et al. 2010) and plant species loss (Wardle et al. 1999, Scherber et al. 2010). 396 However, few such studies have focused explicitly on plant range shifts (Engelkes et al. 2008, 397 Morriën et al. 2010, Van Grunsven et al. 2010, Meisner et al. 2012). Interestingly, plant species 398 that shift range and are successful in their new range have invasive properties with respect to 399 aboveground and belowground enemy effects similar to intercontinental exotic invaders 400 (Engelkes et al. 2008). In Figure 1, different scenarios of aboveground-belowground range shifts 401 are worked out and consequences for plant biomass are presented. It is shown that depending on 402 how fast plants, herbivores and carnivores may shift range, in the new range plants can produce 403 more or less biomass than in the native range. 404 Further studies using aboveground and belowground surveys and manipulations along a 405 range expansion gradient are needed in order to tease apart the ecological and evolutionary 406 consequences of individual effects. Whereas studies on invasive plants have shown contrasting 407 relationships for the amounts of natural enemy exposure (Mitchell & Power 2003, Van Kleunen 408 & Fischer 2009), ecological responses are not necessarily in line with the assumed enemy release 409 effects (Parker & Gilbert 2007). Long-term experiments and studies along latitudinal or elevation 410 gradients (Sundqvist et al. 2011) are needed in order to determine extended effects of plant range 411 shifts on decomposition, nutrient cycling and consequences for plant performance under field 412 conditions. Transplantation studies, for example, may reveal to what extent there is specificity in 16 413 litter decomposition along latitudinal or altitudinal gradients. This specificity has been described 414 as a ‘home field advantage’ (Ayres et al. 2009, Strickland et al. 2009), as the soil communities of 415 some plant species decompose own litter faster than soil communities from other plant species. 416 This home field advantage has also been established to be plant genotype-specific (Madritch & 417 Lindroth 2011). 418 It is important to include negative controls in experiments when testing species responses to 419 climate warming. For example, in aboveground-belowground interaction studies successful range 420 expanders may be compared with unsuccessful ones in order to test aboveground-belowground 421 interaction effects (Morriën et al. 2011) and consequences for plant abundance (Klironomos 422 2002). Besides effects of species gains, consequences of species loss due to climate warming 423 need to be tested experimentally. This will yield information on the traits of species that are under 424 threat by extinction under climate warming, their ecological relationships and the amount of 425 generalist and specialist relationships with other plants and multitrophic organisms. These 426 integrated and field-based approaches may help to further conceptualizations of species loss and 427 gain (Jackson & Sax 2010) from a multitrophic perspective. Ultimately, those approaches will 428 learn how foodwebs are being influenced by global changes (Tylianakis et al. 2008) and how 429 trophic networks may function under dynamic restructuring. 430 431 Long-term perspectives on range shifts 432 433 Aboveground and belowground interactions of range shifting plants will not be static over time, 434 as has been demonstrated for host-parasite interactions (Phillips et al. 2010). When time proceeds, 435 the natural enemies, symbionts and decomposer organisms and their antagonists may colonize the 436 expanded range, but it is not yet known how fast this process may develop and how complete the 437 original communities may become re-assembled. Historical data from paleobiology do not 438 provide such detailed information. Range shifting plants that arrive without their naturally co- 17 439 evolved insects, microbes and nematodes may or may not establish interactions with species from 440 the new range. Provided that suitable conditions exist, natural selection may cause changes in the 441 genetic structure of the range shifted plants. For example, when exposure to natural enemies is 442 diminishing, selection against the production of costly defenses is to be expected (Müller-Schärer 443 et al. 2004), which could lead to a trade-off between defense and growth (Blossey & Nötzold 444 1995). This process has been tested for cross-continental introductions of exotic plant species, 445 although these costs are difficult to be quantified and experimental tests sometimes show opposite 446 results (Wolfe et al. 2004). 447 There are spectacular studies where introduced exotic species lose their capability to 448 produce high defense levels. For example, in a chronosequence representing over 50 years of 449 Alliaria petiolata introduction in North America, phytotoxin production turned out to decrease 450 when time since introduction increases (Lankau et al. 2009). Variation in allelochemical 451 concentrations also influenced soil microbes, including fungi that had mutualistic interactions 452 with a native tree species (Lankau 2011). Over time, introduced plants may become less resistant, 453 or native biota may develop higher aggressiveness. For example, in New Zealand plant species 454 that varied in time since being introduced until maximally 250 years were experimentally 455 exposed repeatedly to soil biota. This study showed that the longer ago the plant species had been 456 introduced, the stronger the pathogenic effects from the soil community were (Diez et al. 2010). 457 These studies suggest that introduced exotic species may become less invasive over time, due to 458 natural selection of the introduced species themselves, or the belowground or aboveground 459 species from the new habitat. Possibly, these temporal processes may contribute to the sudden 460 population crashes that have been observed for a number of introduced species (Simberloff & 461 Gibbons 2004). A possible long-term scenario for such a boom-bust pattern has been worked out 462 in Figure 2. 463 464 Conclusions 18 465 466 Thus far, most work on pattern analyses of range shifts has been dedicated to understanding 467 consequences of species loss due to climate warming. Species gain effects have not received 468 much attention yet and the ecological consequences, as well as temporary developments of range 469 shifting species are only beginning to be explored. However, we can expect that successful range 470 shifting involves a gradual response of the available plant species and that aboveground and 471 belowground organisms expand their range subsequently, but at lower and variable rates. In the 472 meantime, aboveground and belowground organisms from the native range will establish 473 interactions with the new species, and may adapt to the new plants by natural selection. The biotic 474 interactions established in the new range, in return will also impose natural selection on the range 475 shifting species and this may reduce the invasive performance when time since introduction 476 proceeds further. The question is what may happen when the former natural enemies become co- 477 introduced as well: will they recognize their original host, or not (Menéndez et al. 2008), over- 478 exploit their former host, or will the novel biotic interactions completely alter priority effects 479 (Lau 2006). Considering all these possible changes, it is quite likely that the original host- 480 consumer interactions will not become restored as they were acting in the original range. The 481 outcome of this complex process might contribute to boom-bust patterns of abundance that have 482 been observed for some introduced exotic species, novel community composition and 483 functioning, or they may enable a ‘soft landing’ for the range shifting species in their novel 484 habitats following restoration of the original species interactions. 485 486 Ecosystem consequences of changed aboveground-belowground interactions during range 487 shifts 488 489 Until here, range shifts have been considered mainly from the perspectives of species response 490 patterns and community interactions. The question now is whether and how these altered species 19 491 assemblages and community interactions translate into ecosystem consequences. These 492 consequences may be expressed as altered ecosystem processes (nutrient cycles), resilience and 493 stability, and their influences on the provisioning of ecosystem services (for example, primary 494 production, control of greenhouse gas emissions, control of pests and pathogens) (Naeem et al. 495 2009). Few such analyses have been made of ecosystem consequences of range shifts, opposite to 496 biodiversity loss and exotic species invasions (Wardle et al. 2011). 497 In a comparative study of range-shifted plant species and phylogenetically related natives 498 from the new range, nutrient dynamics in the root zone (Meisner et al. 2011) and litter 499 decomposition (Meisner et al. 2012) were affected by plant (genus-related) traits, rather than by 500 plant origin. That is also analogous to work done on intercontinental invasive plant species, which 501 may enhance nutrient cycling dynamics, but there is no general pattern between natives and 502 exotics (Ehrenfeld et al. 2005, Vilà et al. 2011). 503 Interestingly, plant origin affected sensitivity to aboveground polyphagous insects 504 (Engelkes et al. 2008) and feedback effects from the soil community (Van Grunsven et al. 2007, 505 Engelkes et al. 2008) in similar phylogenetically controlled comparisons. Therefore, nutrient 506 cycling-related ecosystem services may be altered less by range shifts than biocontrol-related 507 services. Failing top-down control in the new range can be due to enemy release of the range 508 expanders (Van Grunsven et al. 2010), failing biotic resistance from the natural enemies present 509 in the new range, or a combination of the two (Keane & Crawley 2002). In a survey of 510 intercontinental invasive exotic plant species, exotic plants had fewer pathogen and virus species 511 in the new range than expected (Mitchell & Power 2003). Little is known whether this applies as 512 well to plant species that have shifted range intra-continentally. 513 Another ecosystem consequence of range shifts is related to the question if diversity 514 begets diversity (Whittaker 1972, Janz et al. 2006). Some plant species can have a disproportional 515 role in sustaining aboveground and belowground biodiversity. These so-called foundation species 516 (Ellison et al. 2005) strongly influence aboveground and belowground community composition 20 517 and species interactions, which can be considered as ‘extended phenotypes’. Little is known 518 about range shift potentials of such foundation species and how species assemblages aboveground 519 and belowground in the new range may be as extended as in the native range. Non-foundation 520 species may have less far-stretching effects on aboveground and belowground communities. 521 Nevertheless, many of those species may also have individual aboveground (Bukovinszky et al. 522 2008) and belowground (Bezemer et al. 2010) food webs, which could be altered by differential 523 range shift capacity (Berg et al. 2010). Therefore, ecosystem consequences of range shifts may be 524 that foundation species, as well as non-foundation species lose at least part of their extended 525 phenotypes (Figure 1). Consequences for ecosystem processes, resilience and stability are yet 526 unknown. 527 The altered community composition of range-shifted plant species potentially influences 528 community genetics (Hersch-Green et al. 2011). When range-shifting plant species have fewer 529 ecological interactions in the new than in the original range, patterns of community genetics and 530 evolutionary processes can be completely different in the new than in the original range. These 531 changes at the genetic level may have consequences at the level of ecosystem processes and 532 functioning (Whitham et al. 2006). Therefore, range shifts will provide interesting opportunities 533 for community genetics approaches by testing how micro-evolutionary processes may play a role 534 during disintegration and (re)assemblage of multitrophic interactions under climate warming. In 535 these studies, abiotic stress conditions should also be included, as they can change during climate 536 warming, both in the native and new range, and they can alter composition and functioning of 537 entire food webs below ground (De Vries et al. 2012). 538 It has been proposed that assisted migration and colonization (Hoegh-Guldberg et al. 539 2008) may help solving problems of species that are not able to shift range under climate 540 warming. However, assisted migration might also involve risks with consequences for the 541 composition, as well as functioning of ecosystems of the new range. Successful range expanding 542 plant species have invasive properties similar to intercontinental invaders (Engelkes et al. 2008). 21 543 It is not known if these invasive properties are already intrinsic in the original populations, 544 whether they are selected during range shift, or whether they are due to rapid evolution in the new 545 range. Any of these options will be relevant to be considered when preparing assisted migration: 546 which genotypes to select for dispersal, how to test their ecological suitability to become 547 established in the new range and how to assess ecological consequences in case the assisted 548 species may do disproportionally well in their new range. There are already too many examples 549 from intentional or unintentional cross-continental invasions where taking species out of their 550 original community context has resulted in enemy release (Keane & Crawley 2002). Therefore, 551 before considering assisted migration and other climate warming mitigation activities, community 552 and ecosystem consequences of such actions need to be carefully assessed, including 553 consequences of aboveground or belowground enemy release (Engelkes et al. 2008), symbiont 554 availability (Hegland et al. 2009) and loss of home field advantage of decomposition (Ayres et al. 555 2009). 556 It is in this context that discussions on emerging ecosystems (Milton 2003) and novel 557 ecosystems (Hobbs et al. 2006) may need to be considered. As in restoration ecology, where the 558 role of soil communities and aboveground-belowground interactions have become acknowledged 559 (Harris 2009, Kardol & Wardle 2010), consequences at the ecosystem level of aboveground- 560 belowground interactions influenced by range shifts need to be considered as well. Most likely, 561 the concept of novel ecosystems may require considering species as tied in aboveground- 562 belowground interactions, rather than the considering presence or absence of species in isolation. 563 However, ecological novelty may change over time, because of the temporal dynamics of 564 dispersal of associated species, as well as community genetics processes to which both the new 565 and the resident species will be exposed. Therefore, by considering the interactions of 566 aboveground and belowground species from a combined ecological and evolutionary perspective, 567 ecosystem consequences of (climate warming-induced) range shifts may be more appropriately 568 predicted. This work could as well serve to better understand historical range shifts during 22 569 glaciation-deglaciation cycles, how those processes may have shaped current aboveground- 570 belowground communities in terrestrial ecosystems, and to predict the potential consequences of 571 the current unprecedented rates of warming for future ecosystem functions and services. 572 573 Summary points 574 575 576 577 578 579 1. Terrestrial ecosystems consist of aboveground and belowground subsystems and the species in these subsystems all can interact. 2. Range shifts of plant species may result in temporary release from natural enemies or symbionts, which might cause invasions or establishment failures in the new range 3. Decomposition-related processes have been supposed to be less specific, but recent work has 580 pointed at considerable – even up to the plant genetic level – specificity in decomposer 581 organisms. 582 583 4. Latitudinal range shifts will be more sensitive to disruption of aboveground-belowground interactions than altitudinal range shifts. 584 5. No-analog communities have no-analog aboveground-belowground interactions, which may 585 change patterns of community organization, species abundance and biodiversity completely. 586 587 6. Landscape configuration may be important for range shifts, as it influences dispersal capacities of plants, aboveground and belowground biota. 588 7. Range shifts will be crucial for maintaining ecosystem functioning and ecosystem services. 589 8. The role of foundation species and community genetics may change substantially due to 590 591 592 range shifts. 9. Assisted migration should be considered with care, as it might cause more problems than it may solve. 593 594 Acknowledgements 23 595 596 I thank Tadashi Fukami for proposing me to write this review and for providing helpful 597 comments, Pella Brinkman for helping me throughout the writing process, Jennifer Krumins, 598 Annelein Meisner, Elly Morriën, Pella Brinkman and Martijn Bezemer for comments and 599 suggestions on previous versions of the manuscript. This is NIOO publication xxxx. 600 601 Figure captions 602 603 Figure 1. Scenarios for range shifts of plants, aboveground and belowground herbivores and their 604 natural enemies and consequences for plant size (or abundance). According to scenario A, plants 605 shift range faster than all aboveground and belowground biota and do not encounter biotic 606 resistance in the new range. This leads to enhanced biomass in the new range both aboveground 607 and belowground. In scenario B, aboveground herbivores shift range as fast as plants and are 608 released from their natural enemies. This leads to over-exploitation of the plants, aboveground 609 (n.b.: it is to be debated whether this may also result in reduced belowground biomass due to a 610 lack of photosynthesis products to support root and rhizome growth). In scenario C, aboveground 611 herbivores and carnivores shift range equally fast as plants, resulting in unchanged aboveground 612 biomass compared to the native range, whereas root biomass may be enhanced due to lack of 613 belowground herbivory (but see scenario B). 614 615 Figure 2. Hypothetical explanation for an introduction-boom-bust pattern of size (or abundance) 616 of a range-shifting plant species. Following introduction, there may be a benefit of release from 617 native enemies, absence of biotic resistance in the new range, and generalist symbionts 618 (pollinators, arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi) in the new range that weighs out poor home field 619 advantage. This benefit may further increase due to evolution of increased competitive ability and 620 the development of home field advantage due to specialization of decomposer organisms from the 24 621 new range. However, that benefit can turn into a major disadvantage when natural enemies from 622 the native range migrate as well, or enemies from the new range break through plant resistance. In 623 that case, plants are poorly defended and in spite their home field advantage, top-down control 624 becomes so severe that plant size or abundance is strongly reduced with a risk of extinction. 625 626 25 627 26 628 629 630 Figure 2. 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