Thursday, March 11th, 2004
Need for dam overstated: expert
Says bad forecast could leave Hydro with more power than it
can export
By Helen Fallding
MANITOBA Hydro could be seriously overestimating the amount of
electricity Manitobans will consume over the next few decades, risking
the viability of the proposed Wuskwatim dam, according to one of
Canada's leading energy analysts.
Ralph Torrie poked holes in Manitoba Hydro's forecasts yesterday
during the second week of a Clean Environment Commission hearing
on the 200-megawatt project on the Burntwood River near Thompson.
He accused the utility of basing its plans for the province's largest
construction project on simplistic forecasts that assume commercial
electricity use will grow at the same pace as the economy. In fact,
most sectors are becoming more efficient in their use of electricity, he
said.
"You put out a forecast that has this high-level relationship between
electricity and gross domestic product and expect everyone to bet $1
billion on it being right," Torrie said.
The Wuskwatim dam is designed to export power until it is needed by
Manitobans in about 2020.
But if local demand does not grow that fast, the economics of the
whole project change.
Torrie said there's a danger Manitoba Hydro will have more power than
it can export over its existing transmission lines during the hours that
bring top rates.
Under that scenario, the break-even date for the dam could stretch
past 2020, he predicted.
During a break , Torrie said B.C. Hydro does a "somewhat better" job
of forecasting, taking into account the amount of electricity used per
square metre of commercial buildings.
That utility has discovered there is no imaginable real-world set of
technologies that would add up to the kind of predictions Manitoba
Hydro is making, Torrie said.
Manitoba Hydro's conservation manager Lloyd Kuczek said the utility is
considering more sophisticated forecasting like the system it already
uses to predict residential electricity use. Poor data from the area that
used to be served by Winnipeg Hydro has hampered that analysis, he
said.
But power planning manager Ed Wojczynski said even if Manitobans
saved five times as much energy as they do now through conservation
programs, Wuskwatim would still be profitable over the long term.
Torrie, who is based in Ottawa, noted that that forecasters across
North America overestimated energy demand in the 1970s.
A decade ago, he helped persuade Ontario Hydro and Hydro Quebec
that their ambitious plans for new hydro dams, coal-fired and nuclear
plants were unnecessary.
As the day's questions wrapped up last night, the community
association of South Indian Lake was planning to introduce a motion
asking for the hearing to be suspended.
They want to force Manitoba Hydro to negotiate a compensation
agreement with the Nisichawayasihk Cree before the environmental
review is allowed to conclude.
helen.fallding@freepress.mb.ca
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