Expected impacts of climate change in the Neman river basin,
the potential and possible adaptation measures
(summary of the vulnerability assessment of the basin)
The most vulnerable resources in the Neman basin
Resource,
industry
Risk features
Surface wa- High probability of exposure to the impacts of cliter remate change and variability. The tendency of a
sources
slight increase in the average annual flow across
the basin (with decrease in Belarus). An increase of
the intra-annual flow redistribution. Decrease of
runoff and earlier onset of spring flood. Growth of
probability of dangerous hydrometeorological phenomena (summer droughts and reduced water levels, summer and autumn rain floods, spring floods).
The increased of risks of damages from floods in
the upper reaches of the Neman river on the territory of Belarus, in the western part of Lithuania and
the Kaliningrad region of the Russian Federation as
well as across a basin with the increased intensity
of reclamation of the river flood plains. An increase
of water temperatures and possible reduction of the
content of dissolved oxygen, deterioration of the
hydrobiological indicators of the water ecosystems
state, change in the regime of levels of surface water objects.
The increase in periods of rainfall floods and costs
of flood-protection works.
The risk of significant reduction of the small rivers
runoff (especially in summer) with lowering of water
levels and deterioration of water quality as well as
recreational potential.
Deterioration of water quality in the Kurshky Galf
/Curland Lagoon
Adaptation
potential
Adaptation measures
Medium
Required the effective
management of water resources and optimization of
the water consumption;
including regulation of requirements to agricultural
and urban development
activities in the river floodplains in order to reduce
the risk and damage from
floods and droughts.
Monitoring of a situation in
the basin, including an improvement of the monitoring system for hydrological,
hydrodynamic and hydrochemical regimes as well
as automation of the monitoring points.
Organization of information
exchange between the
countries on a regular basis. Development of the
management plans for water resources and flood
risks across the basin, a
regular mapping of the risk
of flooding; the action plans
for emergency situations,
implementation of the
early warning systems,
Ground
waters
The reduction of soil water content Lower ground
water levels could lead to degradation of ground
water quality.
Medium
Forest resources
Changes in the status of forest resources due to
general climate changes (structure and composition
of forests, infections, parasites) may affect the formation of surface flow.
Medium in the
case of effective
forest management
1
information distribution (including across the borders)
about the danger of floods,
city planning according to
flood risk maps. Reduction
of pollution from point and
non-point sources. Monitoring of the hydraulic installations in the mouths of the
rivers. Awareness-raising of
the population.
Comprehensive ground
water monitoring system.
Evaluation of ground water
status and vulnerability to
climate change.
Assessment of interaction
between surface and
ground waters.
Comprehensive management of drainage systems.
Monitoring and analysis of
the situation. Realization of
complex actions for sustainable forestry including
Loss of productivity and quality of timber (lack of
moisture may provoke drying and reduction of forest
cover, including due to ground water levels decrease ). A decrease in productivity of the «bounty
of forest»: mushrooms and berries.
Increase of amount of forest fires.
Other ecoThe likely deterioration of biodiversity characteristics
systems and including a possible reduction of the habitat of inwetlands
digenous species due to drying out of habitat areas,
degradation of water quality along with increase in
temperature and introduction of alien species. Fires
in terrestrial ecosystems (peat lands). Degradation
of flood-plain bents through overgrowing by brush
woods
Deterioration of an ecosystems state in the Kurshky
Galf /Curland Lagoon due to algae hyper-bloom and
deficit of oxygen
Medium (low for
wetlands), at
present it is
mainly determined by the
autonomous
adaptation.
Fish fauna
Medium-low,
currently, it is
determined by
autonomous
adaptation.
Reduction in species composition and an increase
in invasive species
replacement of the most
sensitive species by more
resistant ones.
The trans boundary control
of infections and parasites.
The melioration and rewaterlogging of forested areas.
Carrying out of forestry engineering actions for protection against fires, infections and pests.
Management plans, combating with invasive species, monitoring of ecosystems and water quality,
control over compliance
with the technologies of
natural resources management (for example, during development of peat
lands), preservation and
expansion of wetlands including revegetation.
Restoration of species and
habitats, combating with
invasive species, water protection measures.
The most vulnerable sectors of the economy
Industry
An additional reduction of runoff due to water use
may reach up to 5% in the future, the maximum reduction in runoff may constitute up to 15% in summer
seasons due to climate change. The water scarcity
for the industry in total is unlikely to occur because of
good availability of groundwaters (especially in Lithuania), but is possible for enterprises using water from
the low-water surface sources. The increased contamination of surface waters may occur due to decreased runoff in summer period. The reduction of
runoff in summer periods will not have a significant
impact on the industry development but may negatively influence to the water quality in receiving water
bodies considering water scarcity for dilution of
wastewaters deteriorating their quality.
Energy
The risk of water scarcity for power industry facilities
is insignificant, except for hydropower facilities due to
a possible reduction of water levels in waterways with
hydroelectric power stations in dry periods. Certain
risk exists due to the increased probability of dry
seasons in the second half of summer across the
basin.
The risk of increasing of possible impact of the atomic power station on temperature regime of water objects.
2
Medium in Belarus in case of
the improved
water use and
economic
mechanisms as
well as introduction of water
conservation
and recovery
activities. High
in Lithuania due
to predominant
consumption of
groundwaters
in industry.
Medium in Belarus in case of
improvement of
water resources management at the
power plants,
including the
effective use of
their accumulating reservoirs.
Above the average in Lithuania in case of
forecasted
small changes
in runoff.
The development of water
efficient, water-saving and
clean technologies (“green
economy”), the reduction of
wastewater discharges and
pollutants content in them.
Improvement of economic
mechanisms for water supply and sanitation. Awareness-raising of the population.
Improvement of the engineering projects and the
technologies of HPP construction, updating of the
rules of HPP maintenance
considering the forecasted
changes in hydrological regime at the basin level; improvement of the management of releases from reservoirs and wastewater discharges, the increase in using renewable energy
sources and use of wastes
for energy production.
Housing
and public
utilities
Municipal water supply to the settlements in the basin
is completely based on the groundwater use; the risk
of water scarcity due to climate change is unlikely to
occur, but may affect the quality. It is possible deterioration of water supply in the settlements without
centralized water supply due to lowering of the first
level of groundwater aquifer and the drying up of
wells. Additional costs on the developing of water
supply and sanitation systems, storm water drainage
and the local water treatment providing water purification and sanitation. The increase of the drinking
water supply to population during warm periods of
the year.
Deterioration of a sanitary-and-epidemiologic situation because of air temperature rise in areas of collection and storage of a solid household waste.
High, due to
water supply
from the
groundwater
sources, improvement of
economic
mechanisms,
systems of water supply and
sanitation (including centralization of water
supply in rural
areas).
Agriculture
The change in productivity and optimal habitats of
agricultural crops due to general climate change and
possible water scarcity. The risk of water scarcity for
agricultural production is unlikely to occur, except for
the users abstracting 2-4 million m3 /year of surface
waters in the certain dry periods of low-water years.
The climate change impact may increase the pollution of soil and water resources (for example, the increase in irrigated agriculture and the expansion of
irrigated areas will lead to a more intensive migration
of nitrogen compounds into ground waters). The
strengthening of soil erosion and the deterioration of
water quality due to the sharp increase in frequency
of intense floods.
Occurrence of new illnesses of agricultural crops,
invasive species of plants and rodents is possible.
Possible deficit of water resources for enterprises of
the fish industry due to the reduction of runoff and
lower levels of surface waters, as well as redistribution among other sectors of the economy. The likely
changes may occur in fish fauna, the disappearance
or reduction of the spawning grounds may provoke
the reduction of fish biodiversity. The changing environment conditions (water temperature, dissolved
oxygen, ice regime) will lead to the changes in fish
production and species composition (including possibilities of the new fish species breeding).
The sensibility (as part of vulnerability) of fisheries
and hydrobiological characteristics of the Curonian
Lagoon depending on the Neman runoff - their deterioration in the reduction of runoff due to the increase
in salinity and their improvement with the increase in
runoff due to the reduction of salinity.
Medium in case
of effective
technologies in
agriculture application
Medium
Effective supervision and
optimization of water use.
Fish fauna monitoring, regulation of fisheries, the use of
possibilities for breeding
new species, including the
expansion of artificial reservoirs network and aquaculture growing. Additional
technological measures in
Belarus (aeration, increase
in flow, chemical methods).
Legal and
institutional
aspects of
water resources
management
Insufficiency of the legal and institutional framework
of water resources management (it is using an administrative but not a basin principle of the water
management in Belarus, the international agreement
across the Neman river basin does not exist).
Improvement of the legal
and institutional framework
of the basin management,
awareness-raising of population.
Transport
infrastruc-
A possible deterioration of the transport infrastructure
condition as a result of intensification of dangerous
High in case of
signing and
implementation
of the Agreement on the
Neman river
basin and stepby-step implementation of
the basin management principles.
Medium due to
lack of financ-
Fish industry
and fishbreeding
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Development of the systems
of water supply and sanitation in the rural settlements;
the periodical assessment of
deposits and groundwater
monitoring (quality and
quantity indicators).
The reduction of areas of
waste disposal by improving
the systems of their processing.
Implementation of measures
to reduce the losses of
thermal energy and water;
modernization and construction of energy efficient buildings, improvement of the
rain sewerage system.
Reduction of pollution from
point and dispersed
sources. Introduction of effective technologies, including for small farms, soil erosion control.
Replacement of agricultural
crops by more productive
and resistant varieties
(adapted to the new climate
conditions).
Adaptation of water transportation to the increased
ture, including
water
transport
hydrological phenomena (dry periods, heavy precipitation and floods). Deterioration of conditions for water transport in Belarus due to decreased water levels
and accelerated accumulation of sediment in the water bodies.
ing.
Health of
population
The reduction of the drinking water quality in the settlements without centralized water supply. An increase in the water consumption in dry periods. The
growing frequency of occurrence of hot and cold periods.
Possible deterioration of a sanitary-andepidemiologic situation, occurrence of new illnesses,
development of chronic diseases, formation of psychological discomfort in cases of dangerous hydrometeorological phenomena.
Underflooding as result of floods phenomena.
Medium
Recreation
Possible deterioration of water quality in the areas of
recreation. Change of conditions for tourism and recreation, including a reduction in the recreation potential for kayaking in cases of lowering water levels in
water objects, impact of floods phenomena on recreation objects.
Medium
4
water level fluctuations, including conducting of engineering activities to improve
the capacity of watercourses.
Monitoring and forecast of
the dangerous hydrometeorological phenomena.
Early warning, prevention
and minimization of consequences of extreme situations systems implementation.
Improvement of the engineering mitigation measures
on decreasing of negative
impact of dangerous hydrometeorological phenomena
on road network.
Awareness-raising of population.
Improving of monitoring and
control of the surface and
groundwater quality, awareness-raising of population.
Improving of information
system. The increased ability of medical personnel to
recognize and heal diseases
related to bad water quality
and diseases which were
uncommon to the region
(malaria).
Flood forecasting and mitigation of flood damages.
Maintenance of the tourist
and recreational infrastructure.
Awareness-raising of population.