Expected impacts of climate change in the Neman river basin,
the potential and possible adaptation measures
(summary of the vulnerability assessment of the basin)
The most vulnerable resources in the Neman basin
Resource,
industry
Water resources
Forest resources
Ecosystems and
wetlands
Fish fauna
Risk features
High probability of exposure to the impacts of climate change and variability. The tendency of a
slight increase in the average annual flow across
the basin (when it is decreasing in Belarus). An increase of irregularity of the intra-annual flow distribution. Decrease of runoff and earlier onset of
spring flood. Growth of probability of dangerous hydrometeorological phenomena (summer droughts
and reduced water levels, summer and autumn rain
floods). The increased risk of floods in the Western
part of Lithuania and the Kaliningrad region of the
Russian Federation (and across the basin with the
increasing intensity of development of the river flood
plains). Higher water temperatures and possible
reduction of the content of dissolved oxygen, the
deterioration of hydrobiological indicators of surface
water quality.
Changes in the status of forest resources due to
general climate changes (structure and composition
of forests, infections, parasites) may affect the formation of surface flow. A significant change in species composition in the conditions of changing runoff is not expected,
Likely deterioration of biodiversity characteristics
including possible reduction of the habitat of indigenous species due to drying out of habitat, degradation of water quality along with increase in temperature and introduction of alien species.
Reduction in species composition and an increase
in invasive species
Adaptation
potential
Adaptation
measures
Sufficient in principle,
however effective
management of water
resources and optimization of water consumption is needed,
including regulation of
requirements to the
agricultural and urban
development activities
in the river floodplains.
Monitoring of situation in the basin, river
management at a
basin level, the mapping of the flood risk
on a systematic basis, the reduction of
pollution from point
and non-point
sources
Rather sufficient if forests are effectively
managed
Replacement of the
most sensitive species by more sustainable ones; monitoring and analysis of
the situation
The struggle with
invasive species;
monitoring of ecosystems and water
quality
The struggle with
invasive species
Medium, at present it
is mainly determined
by the autonomous
adaptation.
Low, at present it is
determined by the autonomous adaptation.
The most vulnerable sectors of the economy
Industry
Energy
An additional reduction of runoff due to water use
may reach up to 5% in the future, the maximum reduction in runoff may constitute up to 15% in summer
seasons due to climate change. A deficit of water
resources for industry in total is unlikely because of
the good availability of groundwater (especially in
Lithuania), but is possible for the enterprises with
water use from surface sources with low water availability. A negative impact of climate change on recreation facilities is possible due to reduction of water
levels. Increased contamination of surface waters is
expected because of the decreased runoff in summer
period.
The risk of water scarcity for the power industry facilities is insignificant, except for hydropower facilities
due to a possible reduction of water levels in waterways with hydroelectric power stations. Certain risk
exists due to the increased probability of dry seasons
in the second half of summer in Lithuania.
Medium in Belarus in
case of the improvement of water use and
economic mechanisms, introduction of
water conservation
and recovery activities.
Higher in Lithuania
due to consumption of
the underground water.
The development of
water efficient and
clean technologies
Medium in Belarus in
case of improvement
of water resources
management at the
power plants, including
the effective use of
their accumulating
reservoirs. Sufficient in
Lithuania in case of
expected small changes of runoff.
Improvement of project engineering and
construction technology for hydropower
facilities. Update of
the rules of construction and operation of
hydropower plants
considering the projected changes in the
hydrological regime.
Housing
and public
utilities
Municipal water supply of the settlements in the basin
is based completely on the use of underground water; a risk due to climate change is unlikely. Deterioration of water supply is possible in the settlements
without centralized water supply due to lowering of
the first level of underground aquifer and the drying
up of wells.
Agriculture
Change in productivity and optimal habitats of agricultural crops due to general climate change. The
risk of water shortage for agricultural production is
unlikely to occur, except for users with extraction of
2-4 million m3 surface waters in certain driest periods
of low water years. The climate change impact may
increase the pollution of soil and water resources (for
example, expansion of irrigated agriculture and irrigated areas will lead to a more intensive migration of
nitrogen compounds into groundwater). It is possible
strengthening of soil erosion and deterioration of water quality due to the sharp increase in frequency of
intense floods.
Due to the reduction of runoff and lower levels of surface waters, deficit of water resources for the enterprises of fish industry is possible. The likely changes
may occur in fish fauna, the disappearance or reduction of the spawning grounds may provoke the reduction of fish biodiversity. The changing environment
conditions (water temperature, dissolved oxygen, ice
regime) will lead to changes in fish production and
changes in the species composition (including the
possibilities of breeding new fish species).
A possible deterioration of the infrastructure condition
as a result of intensification of dangerous hydrological phenomena (dry periods, heavy precipitation), as
well as the insufficiency of the legal framework of
water resources management (it is administrative but
not a basin principle of water management in Belarus, there is no an international agreement across the
Neman river basin). Deterioration of conditions for
water transport because of the decrease in water
levels and accelerated accumulation of sediment in
the water bodies.
Deterioration of water quality in the areas of recreation. Decrease of the drinking water quality in settlements without centralized water supply.
Fish industry
Infrastructure
Health of
population
It is quite sufficient in
case of organization of
water supply from underground sources,
improvement of economic mechanisms,
systems of water supply and sanitation (including centralization
of water supply in rural
areas).
Medium in case of application of the environmentally efficient
technologies in agriculture.
Development of the
centralized water
supply and sanitation
systems in rural settlements; regular assessment of volume
and monitoring of
groundwater (quantity and quality)
Medium in Belarus in
case of effective supervision and optimization of water use.
High in Lithuania due
to privatization of the
fish farms.
Fish fauna monitoring, regulation of
fisheries, the use of
possibilities for
breeding new species
An average due to lack
of financing. Higher in
case of signing and
implementation of the
Agreement on the
Neman river basin and
the step-by-step implementation of the
basin management
principles
Improvement of the
legal and institutional
framework of the basin management.
Adaptation of the
water transportation
to the increased water level fluctuations
Sufficient
Improving of monitoring and control of the
surface and groundwater quality, informing of the population
Replacement of agricultural crops by
more productive and
sustainable ones.
Reduction of pollution from point and
non-point sources.
Introduction of effective technologies,
including for small
farms.