Advanced Institute on Vulnerability to Global Environmental Change
DRAFT READING LIST
Compiled by Jill Jäger
With input from Sara Beresford, Joanne Bayer, Kirsten Dow,
Tom Downing, Barbara Huddleston, Neil Leary, Amy Luers,
Wolfgang Lutz, Fabio Pittaluga, Colin Polsky, Oladele Ogunseitan,
Mahendra Shah, Jan Sendzimir
This list will be updated during the Advanced Institute on Vulnerability to Global
Environmental Change, to be held at IIASA, May 3 – 21, 2004. Some of the literature sources
belong, of course, to more than one category. The citations came from numerous sources and
have not yet been edited for format consistency.
Vienna, April 29 2004
1
Essential Readings
Adger, N., Social Vulnerability to Climate Change and Extremes in Coastal Vietnam, World
Development Vol. 26, No. 1, 1998. pp 1 -19
Downing, T. and A. Patwardhan (Lead Authors) (2003): Vulnerability Assessment for
Climate Adadptation. UNDP Adaptation Policy Framework Technical Paper No. 3 (Available
on Advanced Institute Website)
Kasperson, J.X. and R.E. Kasperson (2001). International workshop on vulnerability and
global environmental change: A workshop summary. 17 – 19 May 2001. Stockholm, Sweden.
Stockholm Environment Institute Risk and Vulnerability Programme Report 2001-01
(Available on Advanced Institute Website)
Turner, B.L. et al., 2003: A framework for vulnerability analysis in sustainability science.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 100(4) (Available on the Advanced
Institute Website)
Turner B.L. et al., 2003: Illustrating the coupled human-environment system for vulnerability
analysis: Three case studies. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Vol. 100(4)
(Available on the Advanced Institute Website)
Walker, B., S. Carpenter, J. Anderies, N. Abel, G. S. Cumming, M. Janssen, L. Lebel, J.
Norberg, G. D. Peterson, and R. Pritchard. 2002. Resilience management in social-ecological
systems: a working hypothesis for a participatory approach. Conservation Ecology 6(1): 14.
[online] URL: http://www.consecol.org/vol6/iss1/art14
Agriculture
Climate Change and Agricultural Vulnerability
http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Research/LUC/JB-Report.pdf
Mendelsohn, R., Nordhaus, W. and Shaw, D., 1994. The Impact of Global Warming on
Agriculture: A Ricardian Analysis. American Economic Review, 84(4): 753-771.
Patt, A.G., 2001. Understanding uncertainty: forecasting seasonal climate for farmers in
Zimbabwe. Risk Decision and Policy, 6: 105-119.
Patt, A.G. and Gwata, C., 2002. Effective seasonal climate forecast applications: examining
constraints for subsistence farmers in Zimbabwe. Global Environmental Change, 12: 185-195.
IIASA, RR-02-002 ( copies available from IIASA publications)
Global Agro-ecological Assessment for Agriculture in the 21st Century: Methodology and
Results.
G. Fischer, H.T. van Velthuizen, M.M. Shah, F.O. Nachtergaele
http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Research/LUC/SAEZ/pdf/gaez2002.pdf
2
IIASA, RR-02-003
Estimation of Agricultural Production Relations in the LUC Model for China.
P. Albersen, G. Fischer, M.A. Keyzer, L. Sun
Conceptual Framework and Core Analytic Issues
Vulnerability in NAPA Assessments: Guidance, examples and team exercises for developing
rapid, participatory vulnerability assessments in National Adaptation Programmes of Action.
Developed by Thomas E. Downing. (electronic version available – but not for distribution
beyond the Advanced Institute participants)
Downing, T.E. and Patwardhan, A., with Klien, R.J.T., Mukhala, E.,
Stephen, L., Winograd, M., and Ziervogel, G. (2004). Vulnerability
assessment for climate adaptation. Technical Paper 3 in the Adaptation
Policy Framework. New York: UN Development Programme*.*
Petschel-Held, G., et al., ????: Syndromes of global change: A qualitative modeling approach
to assist global environmental management. Environmental Modeling and Assessment, 4, 295
-314
IHDP Newsletter 01/2 (Vulnerability)
IHDP Newsletter 02/4 (Poverty and the Environment)
Cutter, S.L. 1996. "Vulnerability to environmental hazards." Progress in Human Geography
20, 4: 529-539.
Kelly, P.M. and Adger, W.N., 2000. Theory and Practice in Assessing Vulnerability to
Climate Change and Facilitating Adaptation. Climatic Change, 47: 325-352.
Liverman, D., 2001. Vulnerability to Global Environmental Change. In: J.X. Kasperson and
R.E. Kasperson (Editors), Global Environmental Risk. United Nations University Press,
Tokyo, pp. 201-216.
Downing, T.E., 1991. Vulnerability to Hunger in Africa: A Climate Change Perspective.
Global Environmental Change, 1: 365-380.
Leichenko, R.M. and O’Brien, K., 2002: The dynamics of rural vulnerability to global
change: the case of southern Africa. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change,
vol 7, pp. 1-18.
Polsky, C., D. Schröter, A. Patt, S. Gaffin, M.L. Martello, R. Neff, A. Pulsipher, H. Selin
(2003). Assessing vulnerabilities to the effects of global change: an eight-step approach.
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs Report No.2003-05.
Smith, J.B. et al., 2001: Vulnerability to climate change and reasons for concern: A synthesis.
Chapter 19 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group 2 Report:
Climate Change 2001: Impact, Adaptation and Vulnerability (McCarthy, J.J. et al., eds)
3
Dilley, M. and T. Boudreau, 2001. Coming to terms with vulnerability: A critique of the food
security definition. Food Policy, vol. 26, pp 229 – 247.
Dow, K., 1992: Exploring differences in our common future(s): The meaning of vulnerability
to global environmental change. Geoforum, vol. 23, pp. 417 – 436.
Golding, D., 2001. Vulnerability. In: A.S. Goudie and D.J. Cuff (Editors), Encyclopedia of
Global Change: Environmental Change and Human Society. Oxford University Press, Oxford.
Ribot, J. C. 1995. The causal structure of vulnerability: its application
to climate impact analysis. GeoJournal. 35:119-122.
Chambers, R. 1989. Vulnerability, coping and policy. Institute of
Developmental Studies Bulletin 20, 1-7
Elinor Ostrom, Thomas Dietz, Nives Dolsak, Paul C. Stern, Susan Stonich, and Elke U.
Weber, Editors, The Drama of the Commons, National Research Council
Global Environmental Change and Sustainable Development
Global Change and the Earth System: A Planet under Pressure. IGBP Science Series No. 4
http://www.igbp.kva.se/cgi-bin/php/frameset.php
ICSU Report, 2002: Science and Technology for Sustainable Development. Consensus Report
and Background Document. ICSU Series on Science for Sustainable Development No. 9
Will Steffen et al., 2002: Challenges of a Changing Earth. Springer Verlag.
Steffen, W., et al., 2004: Global Change and the Earth System – A planet under pressure.
Springer Verlag, Berlin.
Indices, Indicators
Downing, T.E., Butterfield, R., Cohen, S., Huq, S., Moss, R., Rahman, A., Sokona, Y. and
Stephen, L., 2001. Vulnerability Indices: Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation. Policy
Series 3. United Nations Environment Programme.
Adger, N., Kelly, M. and Bentham, G., 2000. New Indicators of Vulnerability and Adaptive
Capacity, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, School of Environmental Sciences,
University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK.
Adger, W.N., Brooks, N., Bentham, G., Agnew, M. and Eriksen, S. (2004)
New indicators of vulnerability and adaptive capacity. Technical Report
7. Norwich: Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research See:
http://www.tyndall.ac.uk/research/theme3/final_reports/it1_11.pdf.
4
Livelihoods
Bebbington, A. 1999: Capitals and capabilities, a framework for analyzing peasant viability,
rural livelihoods and poverty in the Andes. International Institute for Environment and
Development, London, UK.
Carney, D. et al. (1999) Livelihood approaches compared. DFID
Morris, S., Neidecker-Gonzalez, O., Carletto, C., Munguia, M., and Wood, Q., 2002:
Hurricane Mitch and the livelihood of the rural poor in Honduras. World Development, Vol.
30, No. 1. 2002. pp 49 – 60.
Wood, G. and Salway, S., 2000: Introduction: Securing Livelihoods in Dhaka slums. Journal
of International Development, Vol. 12, pp 669 – 688
De Haan, L., 2000: Globalization, localization, and sustainable livelihood. Sociologia Ruralis,
vol. 40 (3), pp 339 – 365
Natural Disaster Risk
United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (2002), Natural Disaster and
Sustainable Development: Understanding the Links Between Development, Environment and
Natural Disasters. Johannesburg World Summit on Sustainable Development, Background
Paper No.
(http://www.johannesburgsummit.org/html/documents/backgrounddocs/unisdr%20report.pdf)
.
Linnerooth-Bayer, J., M.J. Mace and R. Verheyen (2003). Insurance-Related Actions and
Risk Assessment in the Context of the UN FCCC, Background paper for UNFCCC workshop
on Insurance-related Actions and Risk Assessment in the Framework of the UNFCCC, May
11-15, Bonn. http://unfccc.int/sessions/workshop/120503/documents/background.pdf
Reducing Disaster Risk: A Challenge for Development
http://www.undp.org/bcpr/disred/rdr.htm
Blaikie, P. et al., 1994: At Risk – Natural Hazards, People’s Vulnerability and Disasters.
Routledge
Freeman, P. K., L. A. Martin, J. Linnerooth-Bayer, R. Mechler, G. Pflug, K. Warner (2003).
Disaster Risk Management: National Systems for the Comprehensive Management of
Disaster Risk and Financial Strategies for Natural Disaster Reconstruction. Washington DC,
Inter-American Development Bank.
Smith, K. (1996). Environmental Hazards. Assessing Risk and Reducing Disaster. London,
Routledge.
Benson, Charlotte and E. Clay (2004). Disasters, Vulnerability and the Global Economy,
Provention Consortium
http://www.proventionconsortium.org/files/conference_papers/bensonclay.pdf
5
Chinagro
IIASA, IR-03-023
Integrated Modeling of Spatial and Temporal Heterogeneities and Decisions Induced by
Catastrophic Events.
T.Y. Ermolieva, G. Fischer, M. Obersteiner
Brooks, N. and W.N. Adger. (2003). "Country level risk measures of climate related natural
disasters and implications for adaptation to climate change." Tyndall Centre for Climate
Change Research, Working Paper 26.
Diaz, V.J. 1992. "Landslides in the squatter settlements of Caracas: towards a better
understanding of causative factors." Environment and Urbanization 4 (2):80-89.
Kinsey, B., Burger, K., and Gunning, J., 1998: Coping with drought in Zimbabwe: Survey
evidence on responses of rural households to risk. World Development, vol. 26 (1), pp 89 –
110.
Oliver-Smith, O., 1996: Anthropological research on hazards and disasters. Annual Review of
Anthropology. Vol. 25, pp. 308 – 328.
Pelling, M., 1999: The political ecology of flood hazard in urban Guyana. Geoforum, vol 30
(3), pp 249 – 261.
Population
Lutz, W., et al., 2004: Introduction. The End of World Population Growth in the 21st Century.
Earthscan (electronic copy available)
Lutz, W., et al., 2004: The End of World Population Growth in the 21st Century: New
Challenges for Human Capital Formation and Sustainable Development. Earthscan
Population in Sustainable Development-Analysis, Goals, Actions, Realities, IIASA, July 2002
(prepared for WSSD 2002); ( copies available from IIASA publications)
Resilience
ICSU Report 2002: Resilience and Sustainable Development. ICSU Series on Science for
Sustainable Development No. 3
IHDP Newsletter 03/2 (Resilience)
Peterson, G., 2000: Political ecology and ecological resilience: An integration of human and
ecological dynamics. Ecological Economics 35, pp 323-336 (electronic copy available)
Scheffer, M., et al., 2001: Stochastic events can trigger large state shifts in ecosystems with
reduced resilience. Nature (electronic copy available)
6
Folke, C., et al., 2002: Resilience and Sustainable Development. Scientific Background Paper
commissioned by the Environmental Advisory Council of the Swedish Government.
International Council for Science (ICSU) Series on Science and Sustainable Development No.
3, 37 pages. http://www.icsu.org
Responses and Development
Framing the fundamental issues of sustainable development in sub-Saharan Africa. Akin L.
Mabogunje (Electronic copy available)
O’Brien , K. and R. Leichenko, 2000: The Dynamics of Rural Vulnerability to Global
Change: The Case of Southern Africa. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global
Change, 7, 1-18
O'Brien, K. and Leichenko, R., 2000. Double Exposure: Assessing the Impacts of Climate
Change within the Context of Economic Globalization. Global Environmental Change, 10:
221-232.
O'Brien, K.L. and Leichenko, R., 2003. Winners and Losers in the Context of Global Change.
Annals of the Association of American Geographers
Ogunseitan, "Framing environmental change in Africa: cross-scale institutional constraints on
progressing from rhetoric to action against vulnerability". Global
Environmental Change, 13 (2003), 100-111 (electronic copy available).
Klein, R.J.T. and MacIver, D.C., 1999. Adaptation to Climate Change and Variability:
Methodological Issues. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 4(3-4): 189198.
Smit, B., Burton, I., Klein, R.J.T. and Street, R., 1999. The Science of Adaptation: A
Framework for Assessment. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 4(3-4):
199-213.
White, G.F., Kates, R.W. and Burton, I., 2001. Knowing Better and Losing Even More: The
Use of Knowledge in Hazards Management. Environmental Hazards: 81-92.
Adger, W.N., 2000. Institutional Adaptation to Environmental Risk under Transition in
Vietnam. Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 90(4): 738-758.
Kates, R., 2000. Cautionary Tales: Adaptation and the Global Poor. Climatic Change, 45: 517.
Sen, A. 1981. Poverty and Famines, An Essay on Entitlement and Deprivation. Oxford
University Press, Oxford, UK.
Abramovitz, J., T. Banuri, P.O. Girot, B. Orlando, N. Schneider, E. Spanger-Sigfried, J.
Switzer, and A. Hammill, ????: Adapting to Climate Change: Natural resource management
and vulnerability reduction. Background Paper to the Task Force on Climate Change,
Adaptation and Vulnerability (Available on Advanced Institute Website)
7
Adger, W.N, S. Huq, K. Brown, D. Conway and M. Hulme, ????: Adaptation to climate
change in the developing world. Progress in Development Studies, vol. 3 (3), pp. 179 – 195.
(Available on Advanced Institute Website)
Mabogunje, A. and R. W. Kates, 2004: Sustainable development in Ijebu-Ode, Nigeria: Te
role of social capital, participation, and science and technology. Center for International
Development at Harvard University Working Paper No. 102 (Available on Advanced Institute
Website).
Smit, B. and O. Pilifosova, 2001: Adaptation to climate change in the context of sustainable
development and equity. Chapter 18 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Working Group 2 Report: Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
(McCarthy et al.)
Burton, I., Huq, S., Lim, B., Pilifosova, O., and Schipper, E., 2002: From impacts assessment
to adaptation priorities: The shaping of adaptation policy. Climate Policy, Vol. 2, pp. 145 –
159.
Simon, D., 2003: Dilemmas of development and the environment in a globalizing world:
Theory, policy and praxis. Progress in Development Studies, Vol. 3 (1), pp. 5 – 41.
Scale
Stephen, Linda and Thomas Downing, 2001: Getting the scale right: A comparison of
analytical methods for vulnerability assessment and household-level targeting. Disasters 25
(2): 113 -115.
Polsky, C., 2004. Putting Space and Time in Ricardian Climate Change Impact Studies: The
Case of Agriculture in the U.S. Great Plains. Annals of the Association of American
Geographers. September.
Wilbanks, T.J., and R.W. Kates. 1999. "Global change in local places: how scale matters."
Climatic Change 43: 601-628.
Brenner, N., 2001: The limits to scaaale? Methodological reflections on scalar structuration.
Progress in Human Geography, vol. 25 (4), pp. 591 – 614.
Meadowcroft, J., 2002: Politics and scale: some implications for environmental governance.
Landscape and Urban Planning, vol. 61, pp. 169 – 179.
Scenarios of future
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2001: Special Report on Emissions
Scenarios: A special report of IPCC Working Group III
Raskin, P., T. Banuri, G. Gallopin, P. Gutman, A. Hammond, R. Kates and R. Swart, 2002:
Great Transition: The promis and lure of the times ahead. Report of the Global Scenario
Group, Stockholm Environment Institute.
8
Berkhout, F., Hertin, J., and Jordan, A., 2002: Socio-economic futures in climate change
impact assessment: using scenarios as “learning machines”. Global Environmental Change,
vol. 12, 83 – 95.
Social Vulnerability
Adger, W.N. et al., 2001: Living with environmental change: Social Vulnerability,
Adaptation, and Resilience in Vietnam. Routledge.
Adger, W.N. and Kelly, P.M., 1999. Social Vulnerability to Climate Change and the
Architecture of Entitlements. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 47(4):
3/4.
Bohle, Hans G., Downing, Thomas E. and Watts, Michael J. 1994. Climate
change and social vulnerability: toward a sociology and geography of food
insecurity. Global Environmental Change (U.K.); 4:37-48 March 1994
Leach, M., R. Mearns, and I. Scoones, 1999: Environmental entitlements: dynamics and
institutions in community-based natural resource managements. World Development, vol. 27
(2), pp. 227 – 247.
Spatial Analysis of Vulnerability
Kasperson, J. X., et al., 1995: Regions at Risk: Comparisons of threatened environments.
UNU Press.
Watts, Michael, and Hans-Georg Bohle. 1993. The space of vulnerability. The
causal structure of hunger and famine. Progress in Human Geography 17 no.
1: 43-67.
Towards a GIS-based analysis of mountain environments and populations: Environment and
Natural Resources Working Paper No. 10.
www.fao.org/sd/sdpub_en.htm
Levy, M. et al., 2004: Characterizing the global distribution of poverty.
http://www.columbia.edu/~mal85/aag/
O’Brien, K., et al., 2004: Mapping vulnerability to multiple stressors: climate change and
globalization in India. Global Environmental Change, vol. ?, pp. ?? - ??
Stakeholder Participation
Brown, K. et al., 2001: Trade-off analysis for participatory coastal zone decision-making.
Overseas Development Group, University of East Anglia. (jj has copy)
Linnerooth-Bayer, J. and A. Vari, 2003, A Model-Based Stakeholder Approach for Designing
a Disaster Insurance Pool, Training manual for workshop "The Role of Local Governments in
Reducing the Risk of Disasters," 4/28 - 5/2 2003, Istanbul, Turkey. World Bank Institute,
Washington DC. (electronic copy available)
9
Kasemir, B., et al., 2003: Public Participation in Sustainability Science. Cambridge University
Press
Roncerel, A., Boyer, B., Alam, M. and Rahman, A. (2003) Participatory
Approaches for NAPA Preparation: An Overview. Geneva: UNITAR. See:
http://www.unitar.org/ccp/Addis/STEP%205%20documentation%20Overview.pdf
Ney, S., 2002: Focus Groups, Citizen Participation and Governance in Europe.
http://www.iccr-international.org/pen-ref/
Renn, O. and T. Webler, 1995: A brief primer on participation, philosophy and practice. In, O.
Renn, T. Webler and P. Wiedemann, Fairness and Competence in Citizen Particpation:
Evaluating Models for Environemntal Discourse. Kluwer: Dordrecht.
Vulnerability Profiling
Cutter, S.L., Mitchell, J.T. and S.Scott, M., 2000. Revealing the Vulnerability of People and
Places: A Case Study of Georgetown County, South Carolina. Annals of the Association of
American Geographers, 90(4): 713-737.
Food and Agriculture Organization. 1999. The State of Food Insecurity in the World 1999.
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome, Italy.
www.fao.org/sof/sofi/index_en.html
FAO Reports presented to the Committee on World Food Security in 1999 and 2000 (Barbara
Huddleston)
Pittaluga F., N. Salvati, and C. Seghieri, 2004: Livelihood systems profiling: Mixed
Methods for the Analysis of Poverty, and Vulnerability. LSP Working Papers Series. Rome:
FAO.
Pittaluga F., E. Corcoran and J. Senahoun, 2004: Vulnerable group profiles of artisanal
fishers: methods based on the SLA model. In Neiland A. and Béné C. (ed.),
Small-scale
Fisheries, Poverty and the Code of Conduct for Responsible Fisheries. Dordrecht: Kluwer
Academic Press.
10