College of DuPage Meteorology
ES 1117 – Forecasting II
Lab ??? – Text Products
Part I
You may need to search online, as well as through the help that is given
to you in this lab to answer the following questions.
1) What does UTC mean? What other terms are used for UTC?
2) What is the difference between MDT and MST (or CDT and CST)?
3) What does “POP” mean?
4) What does QPF mean?
5) Wind that has a direction of 90 degrees is
a) from the west
b) to the east
c) from the south
d) from the east
e) wind can’t be 90 degrees.
Part II – Decoding Area/Point Forecast Matrices
679
FOUS55 KBOU 092141
PFMBOU
POINT FORECAST MATRICES
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
340 PM MDT SUN OCT 9 2005
COZ040-101245DENVER-DENVER CO
39.73N 104.96W
340 PM MDT SUN OCT 9 2005
DATE
UTC 3HRLY
MDT 3HRLY
MIN/MAX
TEMP
DEWPT
RH
WIND DIR
WIND SPD
WIND GUST
CLOUDS
POP 12HR
QPF 12HR
SNOW 12HR
RAIN SHWRS
TSTMS
SNOW
RAIN
WIND CHILL
MIN CHILL
MON 10/10/05
TUE 10/11/05
WED
21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12
15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06
51
45
80
N
11
41
38
89
N
19
31
OV OV
S
L
L
29
36 32 31
34 32 31
92100100
N N N
14 8 6
32
31
96
NW
8
33
31
92
NW
6
34
29
34 33 31 30 30 30
31 30 30 30 30 30
89 89 96100100100
NW W SW SW SW SW
5 3 4 4 4 4
54
41 51 53 50 41
30 32 35 35 32
65 48 50 56 70
SW S S S SW
3 2 3 4 4
37
29
72
SW
5
35
28
75
SW
5
33
34
28
78
SW
3
OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV BK BK SC SC SC SC SC SC SC
90
90
70
20
0
0.69
0.92
0.14
0.01
0
5
8
2
D
D
D
D
D
D
D
L
32 26 25 24 25 27 28
26
22
22
25
L
L
L
24
S
24
S
S
S
25
33
29
DATE
UTC 6HRLY
MDT 6HRLY
10/12/05
18 00 06
12 18 00
THU 10/13/05
12 18 00 06
06 12 18 00
FRI 10/14/05
12 18 00 06
06 12 18 00
SAT 10/15/05
12 18 00 06
06 12 18 00
SUN 10/16/05
12 18 00
06 12 18
MAX/MIN
TEMP
DEWPT
PWIND DIR
WIND CHAR
AVG CLOUDS
POP 12HR
61
58 56 41
31 31 25
N
LT
SC FW FW
0
35
67
36 63 60 40
25 31 33 28
W
SW
LT
LT
FW FW FW FW
0
0
32
70
34 65 63 44
24 32 31 19
S
S
LT
LT
FW FW FW FW
0
0
36
70
37 66 62 41
21 31 29 31
SE
NE
LT
LT
SC SC SC SC
0
0
32
65
34 61 58
29 30 37
NE
SE
LT
LT
SC SC SC
0
0
Using the Matrix on the previous page (for Denver Colorado), answer
the following.
1) What is the amount of snow forecast for Denver from 6am MDT on the
10th to 6pm on the 10th? What is the liquid equivalent of that snow for
that same 12 hour period?
2) What is the probability of snow for 21 UTC on the 10th? (You may
answer in terms of percentage or by definition.
3) What is the forecast high temperature for October 15th?
4) From midnight through 6am on Tuesday morning (06 through 12
UTC), the RH is to be 100%. However, fog is not being forecast. How do
we know that fog is not being forecast? (Note: If fog and/or haze were
forecast, it would be shown on the matrix!).
5) The clouds from Monday to Wednesday are generally …
a) decreasing
b) increasing
c) increasing then decreasing
d) steady
e) eating away at your flesh.
TXZ243-102100PORT ARANSAS-NUECES TX
27.82N 97.08W
959 AM CDT MON OCT 10 2005
DATE
UTC 3HRLY
CDT 3HRLY
MON 10/10/05
TUE 10/11/05
WED 10/12/05
08 11 14 17 20 23 02 05 08 11 14 17 20 23 02 05 08 11 14 17 20 23
03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18
MAX/MIN
TEMP
DEWPT
RH
WIND DIR
WIND SPD
CLOUDS
POP 12HR
QPF 12HR
RAIN SHWRS
TSTMS
HEAT INDEX
MAX HEAT
DATE
UTC 6HRLY
CDT 6HRLY
MIN/MAX
TEMP
DEWPT
PWIND DIR
WIND CHAR
AVG CLOUDS
POP 12HR
RAIN SHWRS
TSTMS
83
77
82
S
13
SC
SC
SC
92
93
05
00
75
72
BK
C
C
85
84
77
80
SE
12
SC
30
0.06
SC IS
SC IS
95 93
97
85
77
77
S
13
SC
77
77
76
97
S
6
BK
30
0.19
IS SC SC SC
IS SC SC SC
87
91
81
76
85
SE
10
BK
79
76
91
SE
9
BK
78
76
94
S
6
BK
79
76
91
SE
6
BK
81
75
82
E
9
BK
SC SC
SC SC
88
88
82
81
75
82
E
9
BK
50
0.60
SC SC
SC SC
89 86
89
82
75
79
E
9
BK
78
75
91
NE
9
BK
77
74
90
NE
8
BK
L
L
L
L
75
75
72
90
NE
4
BK
60
0.29
L L
L L
76
73
90
NE
6
BK
77
72
85
NE
4
BK
80
74
82
NE
5
BK
C
C
C
C
85
86
85
THU 10/13/05
11 17 23 05
06 12 18 00
FRI 10/14/05
11 17 23 05
06 12 18 00
SAT 10/15/05
11 17 23 05
06 12 18 00
SUN 10/16/05
11 17 23
06 12 18
72
82
73 80 80 75
70 69 69 68
NE
NE
LT
GN
BK BK BK BK
40
30
C C C C
C C C C
73
82
73 81 80 74
68 66 66 67
NE
NE
GN
GN
BK BK BK SC
30
20
C S S
C
71
83
71 80 80 73
64 64 65 65
NE
NE
GN
GN
SC SC SC FW
10
10
70
82
71 80 80
65 66 67
SE
SE
GN
GN
FW SC SC
5
5
81
80
73
79
NE
8
BK
50
0.39
C C
C C
87 82
88
81
74
79
NE
6
BK
Using the Matrix on the previous page (Port Aransas-Nueces TX),
answer the following.
1) From 11 UTC to 23 UTC on Wednesday, what is the amount of rain, in
inches, forecast for the area?
2) What is the general forecast for the area for Tuesday night?
a) Scattered clouds, warm and muggy with thunderstorms likely
with a low of 70?
b) Mostly clear, warm and muggy with rain and a low of 75?
c) Warm, muggy, and windy with a few showers and a low of 72?
d) Broken clouds, warm and muggy. Thunderstorms are likely with
a low of 75.
e) None of the above.
3) What is the wind and direction forecast for 17Z Tuesday (the 11th)?
4) What is the likelihood of precipitation, by percentage, for the 12 hour
time period ending on Wednesday morning at 6am?
a) 29%
b) 60%
c) 50%
d) 19%
e) 100%
5) What is the general character of the wind from late Thursday through
Sunday?
Part III
1) Pull up the latest Chicago Area Forecast Matrix for DuPage County
(from the Nexlab Text Pages at http://weather.cod.edu/ ). Write a verbal
7 day forecast using only the matrix. For example:
Today: Mostly Sunny with a slight chance of a shower late in the
day. High around 72. Winds out of the east at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of
precipitation around 30%.
2) How does this differ from the Chicago Zone Forecast Product for
DuPage County? Why might It be different?