Stuck in the Middle of a Metaphor:
Intermediate Occupations and some limitations of the Hourglass Economy Thesis
Pauline Anderson
University of Strathclyde, UK
Abstract
Evidence from the ESRC Future of Work research programme suggests that an hourglassshaped occupational structure is emerging in the UK, with the polarisation of jobs at top
and bottom of the occupational hierarchy (Nolan, 2001). Despite the implicit suggestion
that jobs in the middle appear to be disappearing, somewhat paradoxically, there are
increasing reports of skill and recruitment problems across intermediate occupations
(DfES, 2002; FSS, 2007; LSC, 2006). This paper argues that whilst the hourglass
economy thesis, or a variation of it, best describes recent occupational transformations, it
is limited both conceptually and empirically; more specifically, it neglects important
dimensions of change within intermediate occupations.
Key Words
Intermediate occupations/hourglass economy thesis/occupational change/SOC2000
Introduction
There notion that an hourglass-shaped occupational structure is emerging in the UK, with
the dual expansion of jobs at the top and jobs at the bottom of the occupational structure or polarisation of jobs around highly skilled ‘iMacJobs’ (Thompson et al., 1996: 4) and
low-skilled ‘McJobs’ (Ritzer, 1998: 6) - is not uncontested. Indeed, the hourglass
economy thesis is essentially a critique of the proposal that there is unilateral expansion
of higher-level jobs: the upskilling thesis.
Thus, before defining intermediate
occupations and highlighting some limitations of the hourglass metaphor as a basis for
understanding problems with recruitment and skill, this paper briefly summarises the key
contentions of upskilling and hourglass theses, and, with reference to empirical data on
occupational change, assesses which best describes recent occupational transformations.
Upskilling Thesis versus Hourglass Economy Thesis
Embraced by policy-makers and some key academics, the upskilling thesis is premised
on the belief that a new and rapidly changing economy is emerging (Bell, 1973; Drucker,
1969; DTI, 1998; OECD, 1996; Reich, 1991; Scottish Executive, 2001, 2004). The
foundation of this ‘new’ economy is knowledge. The knowledge-driven economy is
defined as “one in which the generation and the exploitation of knowledge has come to
play the predominant part in the creation of wealth” (DTI, 1998: 2). Consequently, the
knowledge economy, the argument goes, is transforming occupational structures through
an increase in the demand for higher-level occupations and skills and a parallel,
1
diminishing, demand for many lower-level occupations and skills that historically formed
the bedrock of the ‘old’ economy. Moreover, the nature of skills required is changing:
“this is a new labour market is unlike the one known by previous generations. Today
skills matter more than brawn” (Scottish Executive, 2001: 5). The antidote to the current
perceived lack of higher-level thinking skills required for the anticipated mass expansion
of professional, technical and managerial occupations (Castells, 2003: 129), or
“knowledge workers” (Drucker, 1969: 251), is, for policy-makers, to be found in their
commitment to upskilling through prescriptive skill policies and skill strategies.
Yet there are potentially contentious presuppositions around the idea of what drives and
establishes a ‘new’ knowledge economy and therefore some debate around resultant
occupational transformations. Many question the notion that occupational structures
have undergone anything like the quantum leap or paradigm shift suggested by policymakers, proposing that the knowledge economy is more hyperbole than metaphor (Lloyd
and Payne, 2005; Nolan, 2004; Taylor, 2004; Thompson, 2003). Challenging the belief
that occupational structures are unilaterally upskilling, the hourglass economy thesis
points to evidence that jobs are polarising at the higher and lower ranks of the
occupational hierarchy into what Goos and Manning (2003) have labelled the ‘lovely’
and ‘lousy’ jobs, and that a bottom-heavy hourglass best describes the emerging
occupational structure in the UK (Nolan, 2001: 30). A key proponent of the hourglass
economy thesis, Peter Nolan (2003: 381) suggests that whilst there is evidence of growth
in knowledge-intensive sectors and knowledge work, this growth is supported by an everexpanding number of lower-level service jobs: “the low wage, routine and unglamorous
occupations that structured working lives in the early part of the 20th century” (ibid:
279).
Examining Occupational Change
In light of such opposing positions around changing occupational structures, a useful
starting point for assessing whether the upskilling thesis or hourglass thesis best describes
occupational transformations is the Standard Occupational Classification SOC2000
(ONS, 2000). The SOC2000 is the standard system for classifying all occupations in the
UK and replaces the SOC90, which overtook other historical systems. Occupations are
categorised into nine major groups, ranging from 1, the highest ranking group, through to
9, the lowest ranking group. The SOC2000 is arranged hierarchically based on both the
concept of ‘job’ and on the concept of ‘skill’. The concept of ‘job’ is the fundamental
unit of analysis in the SOC2000 (ONS, 2000: 4). Every job in the UK is categorised into
one of 353 occupational unit groups, identified by an occupation label, such as
‘chemists’, ‘farm managers’ and ‘traffic wardens’. Unit groups are the building blocks of
the SOC2000, which then cluster to form minor groups, sub-major groups and major
groups. The concept of ‘skill’ informs this clustering process and subsequent hierarchical
arrangement of the nine major occupational. The major groups in the SOC2000 are
described in Figure 1.1.
2
The SOC2000 is increasingly the classification system of choice for disseminating and
analysing labour market information, allowing for observations of general trends and
transformations in occupational structures, and, to a certain extent, skills distribution;
nonetheless, the limitations of the framework include, for instance, the absence of
information on sectorial changes, skill changes within occupational groups, details on
gender or contract type. The SOC2000 framework, however, accommodates all UK jobs
and is a useful, albeit somewhat crude, vehicle for examining broad patterns across
occupational clusters - ranked higher or lower in relation to other occupational groups.
Figure 1.1: Standard Occupational Classification 2000 (SOC2000) - Major Groups
1. Managers and Senior Officials
2. Professional Occupations
3. Associate Professional and Technical Occupations
4. Administrative and Secretarial Occupations
5. Skilled Trades Occupations
6. Personal Service Occupations
7. Sales and Customer Service Occupations
8. Process, Plant and Machine Operatives
9. Elementary Occupations
(Source: ONS, 2000: 19)
Changes in UK occupational structures in the period 1984-2004 are shown in Table 1.2,
with occupations experiencing structural expansion highlighted in grey. Whilst there is
evidence of an expansion of higher-level jobs, there is a corresponding expansion in
lower-level jobs - as measured by this broad SOC2000 hierarchical framework suggesting structural trends towards job polarisation at the top and bottom ends of the
occupational hierarchy. The data presented, moreover, resonates with Nolan’s (2003:
479) argument that “long established occupations in clerical and secretarial work - by no
stretch of the imagination part of the radical ‘new’ economy - lift the ‘traditional’
workforce to around two thirds”. Indeed, if administrative/secretarial occupations and
below (Major Groups 4-9) are broadly categorised as emblematic of the ‘old’ economy,
whilst managerial, professional and technical occupations (Major Groups 1-3) are
representative of the ‘new’ economy, the vast majority of jobs embody many of the
characteristics of the traditional workforce. In 2004, for instance, 41.5 per cent of jobs in
the UK were in major groups 1-3, whereas 58.7 per cent of jobs were major groups 1-5.
Even when the projected figures to 2014 are considered, 54.8 per cent of jobs are outwith
those occupational groups that might reasonably be regarded as those spearheading the
‘new’ economy (Wilson et al., 2006: 70).
3
Table 1.2: Percentage of all UK Jobs 1984-2004 by SOC2000 Major Group
SOC2000 Major Group
1. Managers and Senior Officials
2. Professional Occupations
3. Associate Professional and Technical
4. Administrative and Secretarial
5. Skilled Trades Occupations
6. Personal Service Occupations
7. Sales and Customer Service
8. Process, Plant and Machine Operatives
9. Elementary Occupations
1984
12.1%
8.4%
10.1%
15.0%
16.4%
4.1%
6.1%
11.8%
16.1%
2004
15.3%
11.8%
14.3%
12.6%
11.4%
7.5%
8.0%
7.9%
11.3%
% Change
3.2%
3.4%
4.2%
-2.4%
-5.0%
3.4%
1.9%
-3.9%
-4.8%
(Source: Adapted from Wilson et al., 2006: 70)
A similar pattern of job polarisation emerges when these categories are applied to
Scotland, as highlighted in Table 1.3. Importantly, the bottom-heavy hourglass is slightly
more pronounced in Scotland, with 61.1 per cent of jobs in 2004 in occupational groups
4-9.
Table 1.3: Percentage of all Scottish Jobs 1984-2004 by SOC2000 Major Group
SOC2000 Major Group
1. Managers and Senior Officials
2. Professional Occupations
3. Associate Professional and Technical
4. Administrative and Secretarial
5. Skilled Trades Occupations
6. Personal Service Occupations
7. Sales and Customer Service
8. Process, Plant and Machine Operatives
9. Elementary Occupations
1984
10.1%
8.4%
10.1%
13.5%
16.8%
4.2%
6.6%
12.0%
18.4%
2004
13.2%
12.1%
13.6%
13.4%
11.4%
6.4%
8.0%
8.3%
13.5%
% Change
3.1%
3.7%
3.5%
-0.1%
-5.4%
2.2%
1.4%
-3.7%
-4.9%
(Source: Adapted from Green et al., 2006: 218)
4
Consequently, data on recent, and projected, changes in occupational structures lend
support to the contention that an hourglass economy is emerging in the UK; there is an
expansion at the top of the occupational structure and a corresponding expansion at the
bottom: jobs in the middle appear to be disappearing. It is suggested that Nolan’s
proposition of a bottom-heavy hourglass provides a more effective description of
occupational structures than the upskilling projection of an inverted pyramid-shaped
structure: it is not necessarily a perfect representation of Nolan’s hourglass, but a
shortened, truncated, version of it.
The hourglass economy thesis, however, does not attend to the central paradox that if
intermediate occupations are declining, why is there increasing problems of recruitment
and skill? A key limitation of the hourglass economy thesis immediately observable is
that although some middling occupations are in structural decline they still represent a
significant proportion of jobs. Skilled trades occupations, for example, although in
declining, accounted for 11.4 per cent of all UK and Scottish jobs in 2004 (see Tables 1.2
and 1.3). Whether skilled trades and other occupations emblematic of the ‘old’ economy
are, as Rifkin (1996: 65) suggests, “destined for near extinction” or merely finitely
contracting, remains a matter for debate - although it is not unreasonable to suppose, even
in the ‘new’ knowledge-based economy, that such occupations shall not generate a
modicum of demand. A number of other limitations of the hourglass thesis begin to
unravel through revisiting data on change and locating intermediate occupations more
precisely within recent structural transformations. It is necessary, however, to define first
intermediate occupations, not least because it is not sufficiently clear where middleranking occupations are located in the overall SOC2000 hierarchy.
Defining Intermediate Occupations using the SOC2000
There is “as yet no clear and universal definition of what is meant by ‘intermediate
occupations’” (Elias and Bynner, 1996: 2). It is possible, however, to derive a clear,
working, skills-sensitive, definition of intermediate occupations from the SOC2000
framework and related research. The concept of skill in the SOC2000 has two
differentiated components: skill specialisation and skill level (ONS, 2000: 4). Skill
specialisation concerns the general nature and type of work performed and skill level
refers to the level of difficulty in the associated job-related tasks. The hierarchical
arrangement of the nine major groups in the SOC2000 changes slightly when the concept
of skill level, only, is applied. As demonstrated in Figure 1.4, the SOC2000 identifies
four levels of skill within the occupational structure; each of the 25 sub-major
occupational groups map on to one of each of the four levels (See Elias and McKnight,
2001: 513; ONS, 2000: 6). Whilst skill level is defined as the level of difficulty
associated with job-related tasks, for expediency, skill level is operationalised as a
combination of the typical length of time spent in work-based training and time taken to
acquire appropriate qualifications - or the average time it takes to achieve the necessary
level of competency in any given occupation (ONS, 2000: 4).
5
Figure 1.4: Four Skill Levels identified in the SOC2000
The fourth skill level relates to what are termed ‘professional’ occupations and managerial positions in
corporate enterprises or national/local government. Occupations at this level normally require a degree or
equivalent period of relevant work experience.
The third skill level applies to occupations that normally require a body of knowledge associated with a
period of post-compulsory education but not to degree level. A number of technical occupations fall into
this category, as do a variety of trades occupations and proprietors of small businesses. In the latter case,
educational qualifications at sub-degree level or a lengthy period of vocational training may not be a
necessary prerequisite for competent performance of tasks, but a significant period of work experience is
typical.
The second skill level covers a large group of occupations, all of which require the knowledge provided
via a good general education as for occupations at the first skill level, but which typically have a longer
period of work-related training or work experience.
The first skill level equates with the competence associated with a general education, usually acquired by
the time a person completes his/her compulsory education and signalled via a satisfactory set of schoolleaving examination grades. Competent performance of jobs classified at this level will also involve
knowledge of appropriate health and safety regulations and may require short periods of work-related
training.
(Source: Adapted from ONS, 2000: 5)
Figure 1.5 illustrates this process more successfully; in effect, all major groups
correspond to a single skill level - with the exception of the managers and senior officials
grouping where the two sub-major groups are split into levels three and four skills.
Figure 1.5: Four SOC2000 Skill Levels and Intermediate Occupations
1.1
1.2
2
3
4
5
6
7
Skill Level 4
Intermediate Occupations
1.2: Managers and Proprietors
in Agriculture and Services
Skill Level 3
Skill Level 2
3: Associate Professional and
Technical Occupations
Skill Level 1
5: Skilled Trades Occupations
8
9
(Adapted ONS, 2000: 5-6; Elias et al., 1999: 9 and Elias and McKnight, 2001: 513)
6
This split occurs, suggest Elias et al., (1999) in an explanation of the conceptual basis for
the SOC2000, because the skill level commensurate with managers and proprietors in
agriculture and services is lower in relation to other occupations in this major group,
despite the similarity in terms of skill specialisation. Furthermore, the authors advise that
major groups 4 and 5 should, ideally, be reversed in the SOC2000 hierarchy; however,
and once again for expediency, they have not been reordered solely “for reasons of
consistency with SOC90 major groups” (ibid: 9).
Four out of the nine major occupational groups require skills at level two. Significantly,
occupations in major groups 3 and 5, and sub major group 1.2, map onto level three
skills: “conceptually, this third level coincides with the definition of intermediate
occupations” (Elias and Bynner, 1996: 3). Intermediate occupations, therefore, might
reasonably be “defined as a group of occupations which are located at level three in the
terminology of the Standard Occupational Classification” (ibid: 12). With reference to
the SOC2000 derived definition, associate professional and technical occupations, skilled
trades occupations and managers and proprietors in agriculture and services constitute
intermediate occupations. This definition of intermediate occupations is broadly
consistent with definitions cited by policy-makers and academics elsewhere (Aston and
Bekhradnia, 2003; DfEE, 2000; DTI, 2004; HM Treasury, 2004; Lindley, 1991; Mason,
2001; Steedman and Lloyd 1999).
Revisiting Data on Change to Locate Intermediate Occupations within Structural
Transformations
As previous Tables 1.2 and 1.3 illustrate, it is apparent that intermediate occupations contrary to their inferred position in the SOC2000 - represent a much broader group of
occupations than might be initially deduced. Intermediate occupations comprise major
groups 5, 3 and sub-major group 1.2, and span a range of occupations from the middle to
the top of the occupational structure. At the same time, and perhaps counter-intuitively,
administrative and clerical occupations, although stuck in the middle of the SOC2000, are
not classified as intermediate occupations. Furthermore, and once again contrary to the
hourglass image suggesting middling occupations are disappearing, data for the UK and
Scotland demonstrates that intermediate occupations are not universally contracting.
Whilst skilled trades occupations do appear to be experiencing a general pattern of
structural decline, associate professional and technical occupations are in structural
ascendancy. In Scotland, for example, associate professional occupations increased from
10.1 per cent of total employment share to 13.6 per cent in the period 1984-2004 and now
represent the largest major occupational group: in contrast, in the same period the skilled
trades decreased from 16.8 per cent to 11.4 per cent. Such changes are not, in fact,
inconsistent with the upskilling argument that technical occupations shall expand and
traditional occupations associated with the ‘old’ economy decline.
No clear structural trend can be assumed from this data presented in Tables 1.2 and 1.3
for managers and proprietors in agriculture and services. A closer examination of
intermediate occupations in the UK and Scotland in period 1994-2004 reveals, however,
7
and as Figures 1.6 and 1.7 illustrate, that managers and proprietors in agriculture and
services remained almost static over this period, declining by just 0.3 per cent and 0.1 per
cent respectively. In addition, this data further emphasises the contrasting trajectories of
associate professional and technical occupations and the skilled trades.
Despite the clear pattern of expansion for associate professional and technical
occupations and corresponding decline in skilled trades occupations, intermediate
occupations consistently account for just below 30 per cent of all UK and Scottish jobs.
Indeed, notwithstanding significant within-group changes intermediate occupations, as an
aggregate, have remained surprisingly stable over a prolonged period. What is more, it is
estimated that this figure of just below 30 per cent of total employment share shall remain
stable into the future (see Wilson et al., 2006: 76 and Green et al., 2006: 218).
Figure 1.6: UK Intermediate Occupations 1994 and 2004
14.4%
16.0
13.6%
14.0
12.0%
11.4%
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0%
3.7%
4.0
2.0
0.0
1994
Managers/Proprietors
2004
Associate Prof/Tech.
Skilled Trades
(Source: Adapted from Wilson et al., 2006: 75)
Figure 1.7: Scottish Intermediate Occupations 1994 and 2004
16.0
13.9%
14.0
13.6%
11.7%
11.4%
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
3.6%
3.4%
4.0
2.0
0.0
1994
Managers/Proprietors
2004
Associate Prof/Tech.
Skilled Trades
(Source: Adapted from Green et al., 2006: 218)
8
As highlighted in Figure 1.8, Scottish intermediate occupations - as defined in this paper are forecast to stay roughly the same to 2014. Most Scottish, and indeed UK, jobs to
2014 map onto second level skills in the SOC2000 i.e. skills commensurate with a good
level of general education and a slightly longer period of training than elementary
occupations (ONS, 2000: 5) and typical occupations at skill level 2 include hairdressers,
classroom helpers and customer care occupations.
Figure 1.8: Scottish Occupations 2014: Converted via SOC2000 Skill Levels
36.1%
40
35
30
25
20
e.g.
Hairdresser
Classroom
Assistant
27.9%
25.7%
e.g.
Solicitor,
Dentist
e.g.
Nurse,
Plumber
INTERMEDIATE
OCCUPATIONS
10.6%
15
e.g.
Labourer,
Bar Staff
10
5
0
Level 4
Level 3
Level 2
Level 1
(Source: Adapted from Green et al., 2006: 218)
Finally, replacement demand across all UK jobs is eight times greater than structural
growth in the period 2004-2014 (Wilson et al., 2006: xvi). In Scotland, between 2003
and 2008, the expectation is that 500,000 new jobs openings shall be created through
replacement demand, with expansion demand accounting for just 36,000 openings (FSS,
2005: 6). Hence, even “where employment is expected to decline, there are nevertheless
important educational and training needs in order to support existing operations” (Wilson
et al., 2004: 72).
Limitations of the Hourglass Economy Thesis
The decline of intermediate occupations, implied by the hourglass thesis, may therefore
be more apparent than real - with structural change less of an immediate concern than
replacement demand. The hourglass thesis also overshadows the fact that intermediate
occupations remain relatively unchanged in terms of total employment share and neglects
within-group transformations. Associate professional and technical occupations, for
example, are undergoing a prolonged period of structural ascendancy and skilled trades
occupations are experiencing a corresponding phase of structural decline. Furthermore,
there are broader within-group transformations across the sunrise and sunset intermediate
occupations that could be serving to reconfigure the middle-ranks of the occupational
hierarchy in ways not sufficiently conceptualised by the hourglass economy thesis.
Associate professional and technical occupations are caught up in the mass expansion of
9
Higher Education and increasing academicisation/graduatisation of initial skill formation
- and associated moves towards professionalisation (Friedson, 1994; Johnson, 1972;
MacDonald, 1995; Wilensky, 1964) - whilst skilled trades occupations are progressively
locked into academic and policy-making debates around the Modern Apprenticeship
framework and its relationship to the broader social inclusion agenda (Fuller and Unwin,
2003; Keep and Payne, 2002; Scottish Executive, 2006), potentially pushing a downward
shift. Such changes could signal a classification stretch from within the intermediate
occupational category.
Thus, new area of tension emerges by virtue of the fact that, notwithstanding seemingly
diverging fortunes, both associate professional and technical occupations and skilled
trades occupations are reportedly experiencing persistent and increasing problems of
recruitment and skill relative to all occupational groups (FSS, 2007: 13; LSC, 2006: 6).
This emerging paradox may, in fact, provide a more fruitful foundation from which to
explore the riddle of the apparent malfunction in the intermediate labour market addressing questions such as why and how systems of skill formation for the sunrise and
sunset intermediate occupations are changing and if these changes relate to problems of
recruitment and skill.
Conclusion
This paper has argued that there are conceptual and empirical limitations of the hourglass
economy thesis, particularly with respect to understanding better intermediate
occupations. Intermediate occupations, it was argued, are not just stuck in the middle of
the occupational hierarchy, as implicitly suggested, but stretch across the upper half of
occupations. Additionally, intermediate occupations, as an aggregate, remain relatively
unchanged in terms of their total percentage share of all occupations. The hourglass
thesis’ focus on structural change, moreover, overlooks the large numbers of individuals
still employed in occupations experiencing structural decline and the considerable impact
of replacement demand - a key feature for all occupations, not least those intermediate
occupations in structural decline. The hourglass economy thesis, whilst an invaluable
means of appraising many of the underlying suppositions of the upskilling thesis, forms
an inadequate backdrop from which to interrogate issues of recruitment and skill in
intermediate occupations. However, the ghost of the hourglass economy thesis cannot be
wholly laid to rest, albeit that the form in which the further polarisation of jobs may be
taking is through an upwards and, corresponding, downwards shift from middle-ranking
jobs.
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