GEOL 110 LAB 11
IPCC models of climate change
Name________________________
Goals: 1) Understand the results of GCM models that predict future temperature
changes and 2) Evaluate the three models 3) Interpret sea ice data and model
predictions
The three temperature models we will examine are:
Model 1 (GFDL): Climate Model 2.1 by NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
Model 2 (CCSM): Community Climate System Model 3.0 developed by the National
Center for Atmospheric Research
Model 3 (UKMET): United Kingdom Meteorology Office Hadley Centre HadCM3 model
Each of these models accounts for a multitude of various interactions between
components. These interactions include transfer of heat between the oceans and the
atmosphere, transfer of water between the oceans, atmosphere, and land, interactions
between various components of the carbon cycle which affect the greenhouse gas
concentrations in the atmosphere, etc. Each model treats the interactions between
specific components in different ways.
Forcings for past temperature changes include:
 Historical record of greenhouse gases
 Sulfate aerosol concentrations and volcanic aerosols
 Changes in sunlight reaching Earth
 Changes in ozone
For future temperature changes, the models also have CO2 production from human
activity increasing until it reaches 720 ppm in the year 2080. Then it is cut off. This
scenario assumes the following about human behavior in the future:
 Very rapid economic growth
 Low population growth
 Introduction of new and more efficient technology
For the model animations we will see, the predicted temperatures produced from each
model are plotted as relative temperature changes compared to temperatures in the
year 2000.
1. Can you tell what the absolute temperature is for a particular location from these
animations? Why or why not?
2. For each model, record the temperature difference between the year 2000 and 2199
for each of these locations:
Model 1 (GFDL)
Model 2 (CCSM)
Model 3 (UKMET)
South Pole
North Pole
The Atlantic Ocean
just south of
Greenland
Harrisonburg, VA
The Pacific Ocean
near Hawaii
Global average
(mean) warming
2000-2199
2.9C
2.7C
3.7C
3. Do the North and South Pole get warmer at the same rate? If they don’t, which one is
predicted to undergo a more extreme temperature increase?
4. Compare the average temperature increase of the oceans to that of the continents:
5. Compare the average temperature increase of the continents to that of the average
global temperature increase. Why are global averages sometimes misleading?
6. Why do you think we should care about temperature changes in the surface waters
off of the coast of Greenland?
Land (grid size)
Atmosphere (grid
size)
Atmosphere:
number of vertical
layers
Ocean (grid size)
Oceans: number of
vertical layers
Ocean grid North
Pole location
Global mean
warming 2000-2199
Model 1 (GFDL)
2 latitude by 2.5
longitude
2 latitude by 2.5
longitude ?
Model 2 (CCSM)
Model 3 (UKMET)
2.5 latitude by
2.8 latitude by 2.8
longitude
3.75 longitude
2.5 latitude by
2.8 latitude by 2.8
longitude
3.75 longitude ?
24
26
19
1 latitude by 1
longitude
50 (22 of these are
thinner layers in the
top 220 meters)
1 latitude by 1
longitude
1.25 latitude by
1.25 longitude
40
20
North America
Greenland
At correct
geographic locationbut they put an
island there!
2.9C
2.7C
3.7C
7. Based on the model grid size information in the chart above, which of these models
has the worst resolution? What might this say about this model’s predictions?
8. Can you see any evidence of the grid used to do the calculations in any of these
models? Which one, and what does it look like?
Sea Ice Data: We will look at an animation of changes in sea ice from 1979-2004. The
red outline represents the average amount of sea ice from 1979-2004 (for the entire
year). The white color represents sea ice in September.
9. What is the general trend of the extent of sea ice in September?
Sea Ice Models: We will look at a couple of models of future changes in sea ice. The
first model was made by the GFDL group; the second was made by the Hadley (UKMET)
group.
10. What do the black arrows mean?
11. Green colors represent sea ice- the thicker the ice, the darker green the color. What
do the models predict will happen to sea ice near the North Pole? What about sea ice
near the South Pole?
Discussion question:
12. Should the government make laws to restrict greenhouse gas emissions based on
the results from these computer models? Are we morally responsible for the state of
the environment 40 years from now (grandkids)? What about 1000 years from now?
References:
CCSM 3.0 Models and documentation. http://www.ccsm.ucar.edu/models/ccsm3.0/
Cox et al. 1999 Climate Dynamics 15:183-203 (Land model for UKMET HadCM3)
Delworth et al. 2006 Journal of Climate 19(5), 643-674 (GFDL CM2)
Gordon et al. 2000 Climate Dynamics 16: 147-168 (UKMET HadCM3)
Pope, V.D. et al. 2000: The impact of new physical parametrizations in the Hadley Centre climate model - HadAM3.
Climate Dynamics 16:123-146 (Atmospheric model for UKMET HadCM3)
GEOL 110
Name______________________
Lab 11 “Quiz”
Due 12:30 PM on your last day of lab (April 22 or 24)
Use the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) website to answer these
questions:
http://www.ipcc.ch/
1. (3 points) In a few sentences, describe who makes up the IPCC and why it was
created:
2. (6 points) The IPCC report is split into three parts, each made by a separate Working
Group of scientists (I, II and III). In your own words, what broad topic did each Working
Group cover in their report? Hint: click on the link for each part of the report at
http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/assessments-reports.htm and look at the chapter titles
to see what’s covered in them.
Working Group I:
Working Group II:
Working Group III:
3. (3 points) Go to the Summary for Policymakers for the Working Group I report:
http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-spm.pdf. Starting on p.
11, there is a list of future changes in climate. What words are italicized in some of the
predictions? Why do you think these words are highlighted in this way, and how does
this relate to the scientific method / a scientific way of thinking? (You may want to go
back to the first class of the semester to look up notes on the scientific method).
4. (3 points) Go to the Working Group II report: http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/ar4wg2.htm. Click on one or more of the chapters and read a few sections until you find
something interesting about climate change that you’ve never heard of before. What
chapter did you use? What interesting conclusions did you find?