CMST 4N03 – PRODUCING AND VIEWING THE NEWS
DR. ALEXANDRE SEVIGNY
LECTURE 5
Variables and Predictions
1. Identifying Critical Variables:
a. A consideration of Universal Variables
b. Using Theory or Past Research for Variable Collection
i. Providing predictions about the effects of messages of various types
1. Relates to many of the types of linkages discussed in ch3 in which
evidence of message effects is linked with content analysis findings.
2. Here theory offers a prediction of such effects.
ii. Providing predictions about the origins of messages
1. Relates to “integrative linkages” from chapter 3.
2. Here relationships between source characteristics and message
attributes are predicted.
iii. Providing predictions about the relationships among variables within a
content analysis:
1. These provide bases for research questions and hypotheses that can be
tested through content analysis alone
2. Eg. : Rogers and Farace (1975) measured relational communication:
symmetry, transitory nature and complementarity f control in human
face to face interaction
c. A Grounded or Emergent Process of Variable identification
i. Immerse yourself in the message pool an dcondut a qualitative scrutiny of a
representative subset of the content to be examined.
ii. Variables emerge from the message pooland he investigator is well grounded
in the reality of the messages.
iii. Inviting working professionals to check the emerging variables is important.
iv. This can be extremely intricate work, as evidenced by figures 5.1 and 5.2
d. Attempting to Find Medium-Specific Critical Variables
i. Most research happens within a medium. So we try to find variables that are
specific to the medium, that way we can try to capture the “essence” of the
medium through the content analysis. Two main issues for finding mediumspecific critical variables:
1. What is the nature of the medium of the messages
2. What variables are particular or pertinent to studies of messages found
in that medium?
ii. Defining the Medium
1. This is actually really hard to do. For example:
a. What is television?
2. McLuhan maintained that media are essentially defined by how the
extend human senses and that the medium is the message.
3. Bretz (1971) categorization:
a. Audio-motion-visual
b. Audio-still-visual
c. Audio-semi-motion
d. Motion-visual
e. Still-visual
f. Audio
g. Print
4. Heeter (1986) developed definitions for 52 hypothetical media systems,
which narrow down to 3 dimensions:
a. Level of mediatedness
b. Print vs. non-print
c. Personal or subjective versus impersonal or objective
5. You also have to look for features that are unique to a specific medium.
You can tap these features in your content analysis.
iii. Finding ritical Variables Appropriate to the Medium
1. This is an inexact art, but a good literature review will help you see
what people have done beforehand.
2. Hypotheses, Predictions and Research Questions
a. Hypothesis: a statement of an expectation about empirical reality, based on a clear
theoretic rationale or on prior evidence.
b. Research questions: lacking a strong basis for a firmly stated prediction, the
researcher can only formulate research questions.
c. Research question: A query about empirical reality, typically driven by theory or
prior nonscientific observation.
3. Conceptual Definitions
a. Conceptual Definition: a dictionary type definition. A declaration by the
researcher as to exactly what he or she wishes to study.
b. The conceptual definition leads to the operationalization of the variable.
c. Internal Validity: the match between conceptual definition and operationalization.
d. See examples on Page 108
4. Hypotheses
a. Formal hypotheses that link variables of interest should be based on the theory.
However predictive statements are often presented in the content analysis
literature based simply on past research.
b. See examples on page 109
c. Directional Hypothesis: predicting either a positive or negative relationship
between variables (H1,2,4,5,6)
d. Nondirectional Hypothesis: where a relationship is specified but not its type (H3,
7). These hypotheses posit diffrerences but not the direction of the differences.
5. Research Questions
a. When there is no clear theory to drvie the research or past studies that have
examined the content of interest, research questions may guide the process.
b. All variables included in hypotheses and research questions musst be measured
via one or more indicators.