Adjusting to Climatic Variation:
Historical Perspectives from North American Agricultural Development
Alan L. Olmstead and Paul W. Rhode
December 2008
Abstract: Providing greater historical perspective would enlighten current discussions
about future human responses to climatic variation. During the 19th and 20th centuries,
new biological technologies allowed North American farmers to push cropping into
environments previously thought too arid, too variable, and too harsh to cultivate. We
document these changes for three major staple crops noting that the climatic challenges
that previous generations of farmers overcame often rivaled the climatic changes
predicted for the next hundred years in North America.
Preliminary: Please do not cite without permission.
Alan L. Olmstead is Professor of Economics and Director of the Institute of
Governmental Affairs at the University of California, Davis, and member of the Giannini
Foundation of Agricultural Economics. Paul W. Rhode is McClelland Professor of
Economics, University of Arizona and Research Associate at the National Bureau of
Economic Research.