SESSION: NON LINEAR MODELLING
Organizor: Cor van Dijkum
Contact: Department of Methodology and Statistics, Utrecht University, c.vandijkum@fss.uu.nl
Keywords: , human behaviour, non-linear models, computer simulation
Abstract
In the struggle of the social sciences to describe and explain the dynamics of human behaviour,
theories and models play an important role. Social scientists such as Fechner (1889), Coleman (1964),
Forrester (1968) and Blalock (1969) made a plea for theories in which behaviour is dynamically
understood and as a consequence mathematically modelled in differential equations.
Non linear models are another step ahead. Linear differential equations are handled in the natural
sciences analytically by using adequate methods of solving. But only lately, made possible by
advanced hard- and software, natural scientists are able to simulate and handle the complex dynamics
of non linear differential equations. Thereby they demonstrated that many phenomena in nature can
only be understood by using these equations. Inspired by this advancement in science, social scientists
have discovered that also the dynamics of human behaviour can also be better described and
understood with non linear models.
Such pioneers in the social sciences (from psychology, sociology, but also economy, medical sciences,
etcetera) are requested to present in this session their state of 'the science and art'. They are invited to
demonstrate and explain their methodological approach, for example by answering the question:
a. In what way their non linear model is inferred from a dynamic theory;
b. In what their way their model is confronted (falsified and verified) with empirical facts;
c. In what way the simulated output of their model is compared with time-series of empirical
facts;
d. What statistics is used to calibrate, falsify and verify the model (fitting measures, etc.);
e. In what way they solved related methodological and technical problems;
f. In what way the model was useful for the practice of their field.
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