2014
Assessment of Climate Hazards, Traditional Early Warning Indicators, and Climate
Forecast Information User Requirements in Pastoral Areas of Ethiopia.
HARAMAYA UNIVERSITY
PRIME PROJECT RESEARCH
TEAM
4/1/2014
Table of Contents
List of Tables ............................................................................................................................................... iii
Executive Summary ..................................................................................................................................... iv
1.
Introduction ........................................................................................................................................... 1
2.
Assessment Approach ........................................................................................................................... 3
3.
Outcome of the user-based NMA Climate forecast and warning needs ............................................... 4
3.1Communities’ NMA Climate Forecast and Warnings Requirements .................................................. 4
3.1.1 Overview of Role of NMA and Communities Responses on NMA’s Seasonal Forecast and
Warnings in PRIME Working Areas .................................................................................................... 4
3.1.2 Climate change related hazards.................................................................................................... 6
3.1.3 Effectiveness of traditional indicators for predicting hazards. ..................................................... 7
3.1.4 NMA services requirements and its utilization. ......................................................................... 11
3.1.5 Type of Information Required Against Climate Hazards. ......................................................... 12
3.1.6 Decision to be taken by community based on reliable and timely information from NMA ...... 16
3.2 Local Businesses Responses on NMA’s Seasonal Forecast and Warnings in PRIME Working
Areas. ...................................................................................................................................................... 19
3.2.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................ 19
3.2.2 Climate change related hazards for Local Businesses ............................................................... 19
3.2.3 Access to weather and climate Information for local buisnesses ............................................... 20
3.2.4 Type of Climate information and forecasting time required by business holders...................... 20
3.2.5Forecast Information dissemination channels for business holders ............................................ 20
3.2.6Types of decision to be taken by business people in response to climate information Forecast. 21
3.2.7Perception of business owners’ accuracy of NMA Climate forecast information. ..................... 22
3.3Climate Information and Early Warning Systems Requirement ByWoreda Sectorial Organizations.
................................................................................................................................................................ 22
3.3.1 Experts’ Perception on Past Extreme Events and Current climate Hazards .............................. 22
3.3.2 Perception of Experts towards Climate Change......................................................................... 23
3.3.3 Key Challenges for Utilizing Climate Data and Information by the Sectorial Offices. ............. 24
3.3.4 Information Needs ..................................................................................................................... 26
3.3.5 Types of Decision by the Woreda Experts................................................................................. 29
3.3.6 Experts’ Suggestion on the Way Forward ................................................................................. 29
3.4 Output of dialogue with Woreda higher officials ............................................................................. 31
3.4.1 Official’s perspective on local and NMA seasons ..................................................................... 31
i
3.4.2 Impact of the seasons on livelihoods. ........................................................................................ 32
3.4.3 Indicators used for forecasting seasonal climate hazards............................................................... 35
3.4.4 Potential decisions for NMA’s seasonal forecasts ......................................................................... 36
3.4.5 Needs and constraints for the seasonal climate forecast. ........................................................... 37
4.
Conclusion and Recommendation ...................................................................................................... 40
ii
List of Tables
Table 1: Communities Perception for Traditional Early Warning Indicators. ............................................. 7
Table 2: SWOT analysis of Traditional Early Warning Systems. .............................................................. 10
Table 3 : Local seasons in pastoralist areas ................................................................................................ 31
Table 4 : Local governmental bureaus’ decisions and advisories for potential below and above normal
rainfall seasonal forecast. ............................................................................................................................ 38
Table 5: Communities Hazard Priorities. .................................................................................................... 42
Table 6: Communities Perception towards frequency of Hazards. ............................................................. 42
Table 7: Hazard type and Perceived Impact Magnitude in Pastoral Areas. ................................................ 42
Table 8: Astronomical observation based on Region and livelihood ......................................................... 43
Table 9: Wind Direction Forecast based on Region and livelihood ........................................................... 45
Table 10: Animal Behavior Indicator based on Region and livelihood ...................................................... 46
Table 11: Animal Intestine Indicator based on Region and livelihood ....................................................... 47
Table 12: First day of a new year indicator based on Region and livelihood ............................................. 47
Table 13: Additional Forecast Indicators Based on Region and Livelihood .............................................. 48
Table 14 : Climate forecast/early warning information .............................................................................. 49
Table 15: Overall characteristics of the Local Businesses Identified ........................................................ 50
Table 16: Type of Decisions/strategies suggested by communities in response to NMA Forecast ............ 52
Table 17: Local businesses’ climate information requirement and proposed time of delivery ................. 53
Table 18: Preferred dissemination Channels for climate information delivery .......................................... 53
Table 19: Accuracy of the NMA weather forecasts required for use in decision making .......................... 54
Table 20 : Hazards ranked by Woreda Experts........................................................................................... 55
Table 21: Experts preference of climate information dissemination mechanism ....................................... 55
Table 22: Perception of higher officials toward traditional indicators of climate change related hazards . 56
Table 23 : DPPB proxy indicators and tracking system for early warning Information ............................ 57
Table 24: Government bureaus climate forecast information requirement and preferred format of
dissemination. ............................................................................................................................................. 58
iii
Executive Summary
Climate change is one of the top agenda in the food security and poverty reduction strategies of
developing countries. Agriculture, which is mainly dependent on climatic condition, is the main
source of livelihood in most African countries. Change in climate is undeniable fact as
temperature in the globe is rising and climate variability is common all over the world. To
mitigate effect of climate change or adapt to the change, the community need information on
climate elements and early warning advisory. Ethiopian National Meteorology Agency, in this
regard, can assist both crop and livestock producers through provisions climate forecast
information. The effort exerted by NMA in providing climate forecast information and early
warning advisory services to the pastoral areas of Afar, Oromia (Borana) and Somali regions was
assessed with the present study and found that so far there was no information disseminated by
NMA to the community level.
In the absence of scientific climate forecast information from NMA, the pastoral and agro
pastoral communities and local business organizations depends on traditional indicators to
forecast climate information. The major climatic hazards indicated across the regions are
drought, disease, heat stress, erratic rain fall, flood and conflict. Heavy rainfall, fire out beak and
strong wind has also been mentioned in few areas. The traditional indicators are star, starting
date of the year, wind direction, change in animal behavior, animal intestine, flowering of trees,
etc. However, accuracy of traditional indicator is declining as the rapid change in weather
challenged the forecasting ability of forecasters and religious discouragement of traditional
forecast (star as indicator) threats the sustainability of this forecasting method. As a result the
community vowed their willingness to pay for scientific climate forecast information provided
the information from NMA reaches them with location specific, timely and accurately. Types of
climate information expected from NMA are drought/rainfall onset, set off and its volume, heat
stress, disease outbreak, erratic rainfall, flood, etc within time frame of up to two months ahead
and maximum of four months in advance in most cases. They have indicated for what purpose
they need such forecast information in detail. Among kind of decisions with respect to different
climatic hazards forecast information they opt for option as adaptation or mitigation strategies
such as migrate highland and watering point areas when heat stress is high, move to feed and
iv
water available areas and destock animals when drought his high, prepare agricultural land and
cultivate adaptive varieties when information on rainfall pattern and volume is promised, etc.
In general the community forwarded what is expected from them, the government and NMA.
The responsibility of community is to utilized available climate forecast information and early
warnings efficiently and create awareness to the remaining community members. For the
government they gave assignment of facilitate dissemination of the forecast information on right
time for the specific area with advisory services and follow up its implementation. Finally, for
the NMA, they said it was pity for not getting scientific information up to now; hereafter, they
requested NMA to work hard and use best technologies to forecast information that suits for
every village not to the main town and cities alone and be delivered on time so that they make
use of it and be benefited from it.
v
1.
Introduction
It is inevitable that climate change caused challenges to livelihood of major Africans, who
depend on natural resources for their livelihood activities. Pastoral, agro-pastoral, and
farming livelihoods are climate sensitive as climate is one of the major inputs for the
production and productivity of livestock and crops. Agro-pastoral and pastoral livelihoods1
are common in lowlands of Ethiopia, where temperature is already high. Slight increase in
temperature has huge consequences in such areas as it contributes to climate change related
hazards such as drought, pest and disease, water shortage, and imperfect hydrological cycle.
Pastoralists have been applying different kind of coping and adaptation strategies which are
born out of necessity to counteract the impacts of climate change. However, most of the
strategies are not effective as there is no well define ways of its application, and they are also
applied once the hazards caused huge damage. Limited efforts exist in preventive /mitigation/
measures in the area, ought to lack of early warning provisions for the pastoralist
communities.
According to Teshome (2012), scientific early warning systems do not
adequately exist in Ethiopia, or are ineffective, or break down at critical points – risking
devastation, death, and destitution. The existing scientific warning has been criticized for
being too complex and resource intensive that requires skilled staff at all levels and requires
efficient communication channels, which is lacking in most parts of Ethiopia; not suitable for
pastoral and agro-pastoral areas in Ethiopia; and lack of baseline (contextual) information.
Early warning information is widely recognized as worthwhile and necessary in improving
resilience to natural and man-made hazards and protecting economic assets and development
gains. It helps society adapt to and defend against the uncertainties of climate change mainly
if it is developed taking the available resources into account.
PRIME is working to enhance pastoralist’s adaptation to climate change through improving
this ill-functioning early warning information system. As part of the strategy, PRIME intends
to work with NMA (Ethiopian National Meteorology Agency) to try to improve local
weather and climate forecasting capacity and delivery forecast services to local producers
and businesses in PRIME operational areas. In order to tailor the production of
climate/weather forecasts to the information needs of communities and businesses, PRIME
1
Agro-pastoralists are those groups of people who make additional income from crop production on top of
their main livelihood of livestock rearing.
1
intends to support the NMA forecast validation process with user-based assessment of major
climate and weather related extreme events, community and resource vulnerabilities, early
warning and disaster information needs. The user-based assessment gives a true reflection of
the forecast and warning information end-users perception of products and services provided
by the NMA, as well as qualitative information on desired products and services. Haramaya
University (HU), one of the consortia of PRIME, conducted assessment on the user-based
NMA climate/weather forecasts and warnings needs in Oromia, Somalia, and Afar pastoral
areas. The assessment has the following objectives:
1.1 Objective
The overall objective of the study is to analyse user-based NMA’s climate/weather forecasts
and warning needs in PRIME operational areas. Specifically, the field assessment is proposed
to have the following objectives:
NMA related:
1) Assess type of climate related services provided by NMA (including types, temporal
and spatial resolution of climate forecasts)
2) Assess potential means (technologies) of forecast dissemination
3) Identify key partners in the preparation, analysis and dissemination of climate
forecast
4) Assess the effectiveness of NMA's strategy of communicating climate related early
warning products to local government, businesses and pastoral communities
5) Assess capacity and commitment/motivation of NMA and local met stations/branch
offices in the preparation, interpretation and dissemination of climate forecasts for
end users (communities and local businesses)
Community and district met office level
1) Assess information needs of community and local businesses(type of early warning
information needed, weather/climate forecast, etc)
2) Identify the patterns of the local climate (temperature, rainfall, wind, moisture, etc
conditions)
2
3) Identify the occurrence and frequency of climate related risks through time (historical
evolution of extreme events/climate related hazards, future evolution of the hazards,
etc)
4) Identify indicators that community use to predict changing climate patterns and hazards
5) Examine community livelihood strategies and resource management practices
6) Assess community preparedness and response strategies
7) Critically examine community climate ( early warning, disaster risks, etc) information
sources and make a SWOT analysis of each source
8) Assess community knowledge and experience in the use of seasonal climate forecasts
produced by NMA- availability, access, sources of information, reliability, etc
9) Assess how do communities want to receive seasonal climate forecast in the future? (
time, type, format, technologies for dissemination/medium)
This report contains four chapters. The first chapter introduces the purpose and objective of
the assessment. The second chapter is about the approach used for the assessment. The third
chapter critically addresses the climate information needs of communities, local businesses,
experts, and governmental offices. The last chapter provides brief conclusion and
recommendation.
2. Assessment Approach
HU jointly with CARE (climate change and natural resource management lead institute in
PRIME) selected a total of eleven districts (woredas), namely, Afdem, Mullo, Kebribeya,
and Harshine from Somalia region; Moyale, Teletele, Liben ( Negelle), and Dire from
Oromia region; and Awash Fentale, Amibara, and Awash from Afar region for the
assessment. However, the team cancelled Liben woreda in consultation with the concerned
bodies from the target since the area was not secured enough during the survey period. The
assessment was conducted by disaggregating the community based on three livelihoods
(pastoral, agro-pastoral, and local business) taking gender into account. It was also tried to
capture the climate information needs of government sectorial offices such as Disaster
Prevention and Preparedness bureau (DPP), Water bureau, Pastoral Development Bureau
(PDO), Information and Communication Bureau, and Agricultural and Rural Development
3
Bureau (ARD). The data was collected from focus group discussion with pastoral and agro
pastoral livelihood leading communities at kebele level for each selected woredas, Key
Informant Interview (KII) with woreda experts and local business groups, and Dialogue with
woreda higher officials such as head of local administration, agricultural and rural
development office, water Bureau, Women affairs, communication office, and community
elders. There were three dialogue workshops conducted at Dire woreda, Awash Fentel
woreda, and Afdem woreda are presenting , Southern, Northern ( Afar), and Eastern Clusters
respectively. The FGD was disaggregated among women and men to explore the different
information needs. Efforts were also made to represent different age groups (18-60) in the
discussion. Key informant interview conducted with experts and local business persons. The
dialogue has three major purposes which are awareness rising about early warning
information, collective validation of the NMA services if there is any, and a good platform
for gathering climate information needs. The team conducted an extensive literature review
on existing documents related with early warning information, climate hazards and trends
(including reviewing PRIME CVCA reports), communities livelihood strategies, resource
management practices and response strategies in pastoral areas of Ethiopia. Descriptive
analysis and application of simple tests were attempted to strengthen the narrative reports on
the findings of the survey; however, due to limited size of FGD, the cell size of Chi-square
contingency table in most cases is below five, which doesn’t fulfil this minimum requirement
for Chi-square application.
3. Outcome of the user-based NMA Climate forecast and warning needs
3.1Communities’ NMA Climate Forecast and Warnings Requirements
3.1.1 Overview of Role of NMA and Communities Responses on NMA’s Seasonal
Forecast and Warnings in PRIME Working Areas
Ethiopian National Meteorology Agency was officially established in December 31, 1980 by
proclamation number 201 of 1980. The agency among many other duties and responsibilities
is mandated to establish and operate a national net-work of meteorological stations designed
to represent various climatic regions of Ethiopia and to satisfy the needs of various national
development plans and activities; Collect all meteorological data; Publish and disseminate
4
analyzed and interpreted meteorological data and meteorological forecasts; Give advance
warning on adverse weather conditions; disseminate advice and educational information
through the mass media; and provide, upon request meteorological services to recognized
offices/ person. It has different types of stations with different capacities such as;1st class
stations2, 2nd class stations, 3rd class stations, and 4thclass stations to collect the
meteorological data. NMA has focused more on the highlands of the country where crop
production is common and branch offices are skewed towards these areas. There are limited
stations in pastoral and agro-pastoral regions. Besides, most stations are located in cities and
towns along main roads, and this further limits the availability of climate information and
services for rural communities. Even existing records have data gaps and quality problems
and often not easily accessible.
NMA prepare seasonal forecasts for regions such as Oromia, Afar, and Somalia where
pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihoods are dominant. The agency produced seasonal forecasts
and outlooks at regional level and tries to disseminate the information to National Sectorial
Offices through workshops and publications such as, Agro-meteorology, Hydrometeorology, and Health Bulletins. However, the information did not go down and reach to
pastoral community and woreda bureaus up to now since there was no effort from concerned
regional bureaus to cascade it down to the woreda levels. The communities have never
received any kind of seasonal forecast or warnings except the general weather forecasts of
different cities broadcasted through the National Television and Radio on daily basis. Even
the forecasts aired are city- oriented and for short term that does not have any use for the
pastoral and agro-pastoral communities whose demand is more space and time specific. In
some woredas of the assessment, the communities have never heard of NMA services and
products before. The communities don’t have any kind of knowledge and experience in the
use of seasonal forecast as they have never get any climate information before, and received
any kind of awareness or training from the agency. They do not know how climate forecasts
2
First class station is a station at which meteorological observations are made for the purpose of synoptic meteorology;
second class station is a station at which metrological observation are made for climatological purpose; third class station
is a station at which only 3 meteorological elements are observed i.e. maximum air temperature of the day, minimum
temperature of the day and total rainfall amount in 24 hours; and fourth class station is a station which only the total
rainfall amount in 24 hours is observed ( www.ethiomet.gov.et/stations/regional_inform/1)
5
are prepared, analyzed and disseminated and never participated in any feedback workshops
organized by the agency.
3.1.2 Climate change related hazards.
The community has been affected by a various climate change hazards, namely, Heat,
Drought, Flood, Erratic rainfall, Pest and Disease, Heavy rainfall, Conflict, and Wind.
Drought, and Pest and disease were identified to be their first and second priority problems
respectively (appendix table no 5). These hazards have the highest magnitude of impacts on
community’s livelihood resources, and occur very frequently (appendix table no 6). For
instance, in most cases Drought is responsible for 75% livelihood asset loss whereas pest and
disease brings 50% loss (appendix table no 7). They are commonly happening at least once in
two years of time. On the other hand, Wind, Heavy rainfall, conflict, and flood were
identified as hazards occurring very rarely in few places and hence, their impact is not
pronounced as such. The hazards seem to have similar incidences and impacts regardless of
livelihood type, gender, and region. However, a few hazards such as heat stress, pest and
disease, conflict, and flood have impact differences. For instance, Heat stress is reported to
have more serious impact for the agro-pastoralists than the pastoralists. One of the main
reasons could be agro-pastoralists sedentary way of life which restrict their movement to
other areas in case of strong heat weave incidences. Pest and Disease are also reported to be
very serious in Agro-pastoralists than pastoralists. This may be related to lack of experience
to manage crop disease and pests as agro-pastoralism is a very recently introduced livelihood
activity in the pastoralist areas. Disease and pest is also reported to happen every year in Dire
and Moyale woredas of Oromia whereas in Mullo of Somalia it is perceived to occure once
in more than three years. Conflict which is mainly caused by natural resource competition is
a very serious issue happening at least every year in Moyale woreda of Oromia, Afdem
woreda of Somalia, and Amibara woreda of Afar, and it’s responsible for human killings,
asset distraction, and lootings. In Moyale there is a conflict between Borena and Gebera
Oromo clans. This conflict was even going on during this survey assessment. There is also a
long waited conflict between Afar and Isa clan of Somalia. Flood seems to affect more
female than male. Woman mostly stays home and this makes them more vulnerable to the
hazard.
6
The community perceived that there will be more hazard impacts in the future unless
appropriate intervention is made. They also believe that heat intensity, number of hot days
and erratic rainfall will increase and rainfall volume will decrease in the future reinforcing
the climate change related hazards more.
3.1.3 Effectiveness of traditional indicators for predicting hazards.
In response to absence of scientific information forecasting, the community has developed
traditional early warning system to forecast potential hazards and counteract their impacts.
The community knows a wide range of traditional indicators. This knowledge and skills has
accumulated overtime and has been passing over from generation to generation orally. As
indicated in the table below, astronomical observation, Wind direction, animal behavior,
animal intestine, and starting day of a new year are mostly used by the community whereas
the rest are rarely used. However, the indicators which are mostly used have a very low level
of accuracy ranging from 52 to 92 compared to those least used which accuracy is more than
90% (Table1). Among those commonly used the indicator with highest level of accuracy is
‘Starting day of a new year ‘(92%) and the least is ‘astronomical observation’ (52%). The
details of the traditional early warning indicators used by the community are described
below.
Table 1: Communities Perception for Traditional Early Warning Indicators.
Traditional indicators
Yes No Accuracy (Mean)
Astronomical observation
17
3
52
Wind direction
8
12
84
Animal Behavior
8
12
72.7
Animal Intestine
5
15
54.6
Starting date of a new year
5
15
92
Termite infestation
1
19
98
Tortois coming out of its hole 1
19
97.8
Stone count
2
18
91
Witchcraft
1
19
100
7
Analog year
1
19
0
Cloud pattern
1
19
95
Flowering of acacia plant
2
18
96
Ground water
1
19
0
Spider net
1
19
0
Night weather
1
19
98
Earth crack
1
19
94
Tracking of crop growth
1
19
0
Astronomical observation: Elderly people in the community forecasts hazards by looking at
the movement and orientation of the moon and the stars in the sky. It is the most commonly
used indicator. According to the community a fling star immediately followed by a rain, stars
appear close to the moon, a special star locally called Sukria disappearing for 6 days and
reappearing again, five stars appear together with moon and covered with clouds, Sukria rises
in the west, and the seven shining stars appear on their normal position implies that a good
year is coming for livestock and crop production. On the other hand, a flying star not
followed by a rain, stars and moon appear far away, Sukria disappearing for 6 months, moon
and stars appear closely but not covered with cloud, Sukria rises in the east, the seven shining
stars don’t appear on the usual position indicates bad year where rain shortage, drought, pest
and disease prevalence are chronic (Appendix table no8). Most of the women do not have
much information, knowledge, and skills about the astronomical indicator.
Wind direction: It is the second most frequently used indicator following astronomical
indicator. People use the direction of wind blow to predict about rainfall and drought. Wind
blowing from the East and South indicates occurrence of rainfall. Wind blows from West and
North implies Drought. But for Kebribeya community wind blowing from West to East
implies on set of rainy season. Hazard forecasting using Wind Direction is most used in
Somalia region and none in Oromia region (appendix table no 9).
Animal Behavior: it is the more frequently used indicator following astronomical
observation and wind direction. When Drought is about to come Cows start to eat animals’
carcasses, Hayne doesn’t bark at night, and it also stopped to eat carcasses. Animal
8
Salivation and Rolling of unmated sheep are sings of upcoming rainfall. Birds’ squeak is also
another important indicator of rainfall. According to the community when something bad is
going to happened livestock crowded together and refused to go to watering points (appendix
table no 10).
Animal Intestine: the intestine of animals could help to predict various hazards including
rainfall shortage, drought, pest and disease prevalence, conflict, and even death of a human
being. They use different animal intestines to predict short-term and long-term predictions.
For instance, to predict hazards coming shortly Goat intestine is used and for long term
prediction which is eight and more year cattle intestine is used (appendix table no 11). This
indicator seems to be very unique to Oromia region.
Starting Date of a New Year: Most of the woredas where this assessment is conducted are
Iselamic religion followers and they use the Hijra calendar system3, which focuses on Moon
as the center of the system, for performing religious activities. According to them if the first
day of a new year is on Saturday, Sunday, or Wednesday then hazard is expected. Except
Harshine for Friday, all the other participants agreed that a new year falling on all the other
days implies a good year (appendix table no12). This indicator seems to be unique to Somalia
region.
Other Indicators: the community also used a lot of other indicators such as analog year,
ground water level, cloud pattern, stone count, earth crack, spider net, night weather, cultural
(witchcraft), and flowering of a plant to forecast a range of impacts (appendix table no 13).
Even though these indicators are not known much and used, most of these have better
scientific backup than those commonly used by the community. Prediction using analog year,
cloud pattern, ground water level, flowering of a plant, and night weather can be justified
scientifically.
For instance, analog year is used by Ethiopian NMA to prepare
Climate/Weather forecasts.
3
The Islamic calendar (Hijri) is a purely lunar calendar. It contains 12 months that are based on the motion of the moon
and because 12 synodic months is only 12 *30 =354.36 days, the Islamic calendar is consistently shorter than a tropical
year, and therefore it shifts with respect to to the Christian calendar. (Source: internet)
9
SWOT analysis was also conducted for the traditional early warning system (TEWS) to
identify leverage points for intervening and strengthening it in the pastoralist areas. As can be
seen in the table it has more strength than weakness. However, the threats are by far more
and critical than the opportunities leading to the conclusion that TEWS will not sustain for
long unless immediate intervention is done. The details of the analysis are described below
(Table 2).
Table 2: SWOT analysis of Traditional Early Warning Systems.
Strength
Tradition o Locally
al
Early
Warning
Systems
Weakness
o
available
o Doesn’t cost o
too much
o Hazard
specific
o Area
specific
o Not limited o
to
climate
change
Opportunities
Very low o NGOs are now o Religion: using traditional forecasting
accuracy
interested
to
system is against the faith of Islamic
knowledg
know
and
religion. So people are now in dilemma
e
and
support
the
to use this system as it is consistently
of
system.
condemned by religious leaders.
prediction
Example CARE
case of a woman participant in FGD at
is
is involved in
Afdem said “In old days we did not
restricted.
Southern
and
know much about our religion and we
Not
Afar clusters in
used to accept the forecasts but now we
sustainabl
assisting
knew it is a sin to believe in these
e
traditional
forecasts. Only Alha knows the future.”
skills
highly
related
hazards
Threats
o Restricted
forecasting.
o Government
knowledge
and
A
skills
transfer: Important knowledge and
only. Used
offices
are
skills of forecast are passed only
to
taking
training
through blood lines. Only few are
traditional
privileged to acquire such an important
predict
death,
on
security,
early
and
system.
others
etc.,
warning
experience.
o Conflict and natural death: Most of
the Forecasters are elders and they
learned the skills through years, and
these few are very much subjected to
natural death because of their age and
10
targeted victims during conflicts.
o Climate Change: the frequent hazard
occurrence confused the traditional
forecasters to track indicators to predict
hazards.
3.1.4 NMA services requirements and its utilization.
National meteorology services are highly required by the PRIME targeted communities of
Somali, Afar and Oromia regions. The community interested to use the information, if the
information provided meet the requirements. The type of information required for the
community to reduce climate related hazards was collected. These are related to drought,
flood, disease, heat stress, erratic rainfall, heavy rainfall, heavy wind, rainfall pattern and
volume. The NMA service in forecasting and early warning advices is needed to reach the
user few months ahead of the hazard occurring.
As per the communities respond the
forecasting time was grouped into four categories. These are up to 2 months before the
hazard, between 2 to 4 months before the hazard, more than 4 months with maximum period
of 12 months and not applicable categories for those who do not require information on
specific hazard. The format preferred for climate information delivery system includes
through extension agents (both development and health extension workers), radio service,
mobile phone, both extension and radio and combination of extension agent, radio, TV and
mobile. The community in different clusters/regions preferred their own language as media
of communication. The climatic information provided to the community was also rated in
its’ should be accuracy for some use and very useful; which demands high effort from NMA
to disseminate highly reliable forecast/early warning services. The communities were also
interviewed for the kind of decisions they will take if the information they needed is provided
to with the accuracy and time expected. They generally responded if the season is normal or
above they will pursue their livelihood with comfort; otherwise they mentioned kind of
coping strategies they will apply to minimize the risk of climate change hazards on their
livelihood.
11
The detail response of the community regarding the above user requirements is stated as
follows under sub headings.
3.1.5
Type of Information Required Against Climate Hazards.
As mentioned above drought/rainfall, heat stress/temperature and wind related information
are kind of climate information required. The percentage of focus group discussion responses
calculated and reported to show the importance of each type of information together with
brief figures; where the detail is available in appendix table 14.
Drought Information
Drought is the top hazard in all woredas considered in the study and consequently at all FGD
for both pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihoods in the three regions vowed as they need
drought information in time.
Flood Information
Flood is not as serious problem as drought in all study areas. In Afar region 50 per cent of
pastoral and Agro-pastorals need flood information; while the remaining does not. In Somali
region all pastorals and Agro-pastorals do need flood information. However, in Oromia
region, only 20 per cent of the respondents need flood information, the remaining 80 per cent
do not need as there are no major rivers in the area as such.
Disease and Pest Information
Livestock disease mainly and crop pest characterized as major climatic hazard in the area,
where disease follows drought, heat stress, etc. Majority of respondents (above 80 per cent)
from all regions need this information.
Heat Stress Information
High temperature is common in pastoral areas of the country. The future direction of
Ethiopian government is to transform pastoralists into Agro-pastoralists. However, the heat
stress in these areas is detrimental for farming activities. From present survey more than 60
12
per cent of Agro-pastorals need heat stress information; however, the pastorals in the same
regions, who do not need heat stress information exceeds 60 per cent.
Erratic Rainfall Information
In terms of regions, in Oromia and Afar, 50 per cent of respondents need information on
erratic rainfall. In Somali region 75 per cent do not need. This difference in regions indicates
the seriousness of the problem. In terms of livelihood almost 70 per cent of pastorals from all
regions do not need erratic rainfall information. While majority of Agro-pastorals (about 55
per cent) needs the information.
Heavy Rainfall Information
Heavy rainfall problem is mentioned only in limited areas of the study area, which is only in
parts of Somali region at Harshin and Afdem woredas. The other regions do not need as the
incidence is not common.
Heavy wind Information
Heavy wind causes serious damage in some areas in the study areas mainly in Sabure area of
Afar and parts of Somali region. There is no problem of heavy wind mentioned in Oromia
region.
Rainfall Pattern and Volume Information
This climate element is the crucial one which relates with drought, disease and other
components. Almost all in all FGD the whole discussions were around the rainfall onset
amount and set off. Timely provisions of information on this element with demanded
accuracy is vital for the pastoral and Agro-pastoral livelihoods in the whole PRIME targeted
areas of the three regions.
A. Forecasting/Early Warning Information Delivery Time
Information will be useful if it is accessed on time. The community in PRIME target areas
has slightly different time preference to receive climate forecast information. Some wants to
receive the information long time in advance of expected climatic hazard, other needs quite
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short time that is enough to prepare for coping up. In contrary, there are livelihood
activities/places where some of the information is not needed. The following brief report is
provided regarding type of climate change related information requirement periods. In
general, there should be sufficient time to get prepared against coming climatic hazards.
Drought Information Forecasting Time Required Before Hazard Occurrence
In Oromia and Afar, 33 and 50 per cent of FGD groups; respectively, required the drought
forecast information within 2 months of time a head of the incidence. In Somali areas more
than 60 per cent requires drought forecast information between 4 to 12 months ahead of
drought occurrence.
Heat Stress Information Forecasting Time Required Before Hazard Prevail
In Oromia and Afar regions half of the FGD required heat stress information within two
months period ahead of the stress; while in Somali, 62.5 per cent require within two months
of time. The remaining survey areas didn’t give too much concern for temperature. In terms
of livelihood majority of Agro-pastorals (70 Per cent) require this information before two
months ahead of incidence.
Erratic Rainfall Forecast Information Requirement
The variability in rainfall is one of climatic problem that affects farming livestock health.
Information regarding erratic rainfall is required within two months and between 2 to 4
months ahead of the incidence to make decision especially on farming. There were also case
where early warning /forecast information is not needed by the communities.
Disease and Pest Forecast Information Requirement Period
In Afar and Oromia, disease and pest forecast information is needed within two months of
time before the incidence with above 80 and 50 per cent, respectively. In Somali region, this
information is mostly (above 60 per cent) required between 2 to 4 months before the hit.
There is no uniqueness in time of disease and pest forecast information requirement between
pastoral and Agro-pastoral communities.
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Rainfall Pattern and Volume Forecast Information Requirement Period
Rainfall is very important both for Agro-pastorals and pastorals as it vital both for the crop
and animals existence. Almost all issues related to drought are mainly based in rainfall
pattern and volume. The majority of community (67 per cent) requires rainfall information up
to 4 months in advance. The remaining wants to know about rainfall information in more
than 4 months ahead of the incidence to have long run decision.
Heavy Rainfall and Wind Forecast Information Requirement Period
This climatic element is not commonly required at many places; however, in some part of
Somali and Afar the information is required up to 4 months in advance of the hit. Though the
problem is not common but its incidence is severe.
C, Format of NMA Service Delivery on Climate Forecast and Early Warning Advisory
There are a number of ways of information delivery. The present NMA information delivery
system as per the local community studied is broadcast of weather information of major
towns and cities in Amharic language. The community suggested that these days there is
huge variability in terms of weather situation even within a single kebele; hence, information
provided for major cities cannot buy their trust on its effectiveness at their locality. Therefore
they suggested the type of information to be disseminated for them should be area specific,
local language specific and delivered on time through other available options in addition to
radio and television.
In Oromia and Afar 67 per cent of the community chose NMA information should be
disseminated through extension agents. In Somali region, the larger portion (37 per cent) of
the FGD’s suggested to have information in combination of all means (extension agent,
radio, TV and mobile phone). The rest groups suggested, radio, mobile or combination of
radio and extension agent.
D, Required Accuracy from NMA Services
The traditional forecast has been on use in some areas of the PRIME targeted locations.
However, their efficacy drops these days because of frequent climatic hazards their indicators
15
couldn’t feasible as used to be. Hence, the community is in great need to get other
alternative, which is NMA service. The services expected from NMA is also expected to be
highly accurate and area specific. In this regard, the minimum accuracy level required for at
least some use was suggested by FGD’s at the three regions. In Oromia above half (53 per
cent) are looking for minimum of 80 per cent accurate information. In Somali and Afar, 75
and 67 per cent, respectively, suggested 60 per cent accuracy is sufficient for minimum use.
The community will appreciate and considers it very useful if the NMA climate information
accuracy level is a bit higher. Almost majority in all target areas with 50 per cent for Oromia
and 67 per cent for Afar and Somali suggested 100 per cent accuracy level. This demands
high capacity improvement from NMA side.
3.1.6 Decision to be taken by community based on reliable and timely information from
NMA
A number of decision types will be taken by the community and ready for paying for NMA’s
service provision on time and accurately. Among the decision some of them are praying,
expansion of agricultural land, variety selection, migration, diversification, drug preparation,
destocking, purchase of animal, food aid appeal, move to mountain areas and water points
(appendix table 15). The brief description of these decision types is as stated under.
Praying
When the climatic situation is not normal the community not only expects forecasts from
NMA but also prays to God for mercy. Afar pastorals and Somali Agro-pastorals rely more
in praying as compared to other livelihoods and the case of Oromia, where praying is not
mentioned as coping strategy.
Purchasing of Animals
The pastorals are reluctant in purchasing of animals when the climatic condition is normal
and destock when it is not normal. There is no attempt given from Oromia in total and Afar
pastoralists toward replenishing their stock by purchasing animals during good years. In
Somali region 25 per cent and 33 percent of Afar Agro-pastorals of the FGD’s conducted
responded as they will purchase new animals in response to good climatic information. The
remaining communities do not want to restock animals during good seasons.
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Expansion of Agriculture
There is tendency of agricultural land increasing in response to favorable rainfall. Pastoralists
in kebribeyah woreda of Somali region confirmed their willingness to participate in farming
activities when they get information of good season. In other cases 50 per cent of Somali
Agro-pastorals and 67 per cent of Afar and Oromia Agro-pastorals would increase their
farming land in response to good climatic conditions.
Variety Selection
Types of crop to be grown depend on the climatic condition as their potential in resisting
different environmental calamities varies. The farmers in the study area are also expected to
have know-how in varieties of crops available that suits to different environmental
conditions. It is only Agro-pastorals (with 67 per cent) from Oromia region, who are going to
go for variety selection. Agro-pastorals from Somali and Afar area may lack experts who
provide them awareness in this regard that will help them to cope up the climatic hazards.
Diversification
Climate change mostly affect working environment that challenges livelihood of community.
In a risk environment diversification of income source is one of best strategies to cope up
with the challenges. Those pastoralists with alternatives of diversification can apply like the
Oromia and Afar pastoralists who plans to diversify when they get climate information
forecasts and early warning advices to shift their income sources from mere pastoralism with
rate of 67 and 33 per cent, respectively.
Migration
Migration is one of opportunities for pastoralist livelihood to sustain. When there is drought,
water scarcity pastoralists move from one pace to other, even though this action of mobility
mostly causes conflict between ethnic groups, like the case of Borena and Garba, Afar and
Issa, etc. The pastoralists of Somali opt for migration at rate of 75 per cent and that of
Oromia and Afar at rate of 67 per cent if climate information forecast is given to them on
time. Delay of information may delay their move and cause a lot sacrifices in their animals.
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Destocking of Animals
Different strategies can be taken to survive in risk prone areas by pastoral and Agropastoralists who are commonly affected by climate changes. Among the available options
destocking of existing stock of animals is one to balance stocking rate with the carrying
capacity of grazing lands. In general 50 per cent of the total community in the three regions
vowed to practice destocking if accurate information and early warning advices are given. In
specific cases 67 per cent of Oromia and Afar pastoralists can go for destocking, whereas 75
per cent of Somali Agro-pastoralists will also go for destocking. Somali pastoralists, Afar
and Oromia Agro-pastoralists are reluctant to destock even if they may get forecast
information that warns them from carrying too much animals.
Drug preparation
Disease and pest outbreak sometimes devastate livestock and crop in short period of time.
However, early warning in such incidences may save community from loss of animals and
crops by purchasing drugs and take other precondition to minimize disease prevalence. Half
of the Oromia and Somali and 67 per cent of Afar communities are ready to purchase drug in
advance and request for vaccination against viral diseases.
Food Aid Request
Request for food aid is the last resort for the community, when their other coping
mechanisms failed to serve. Proudly, the communities in PRIME target areas of Somali,
Oromia and Afar do not request food aid with rate of 75 and 83 per cent, respectively. There
is no much difference in terms of livelihood when it comes to food aid request.
In general the community forwarded what is expected from them, the government and NMA.
The responsibility of community is to utilized available climate forecast information and
early warnings efficiently and create awareness to the remaining community members. For
the government they gave assignment of facilitate dissemination of the forecast information
on right time for the specific area with advisory services and follow up its implementation.
Finally, for the NMA, they said it was pity for not getting scientific information up to now;
hereafter, they requested NMA to work hard and use best technologies to forecast
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information that suits for every village not to the main town and cities alone and be delivered
on time so that they make use of it and be benefited from it.
3.2 Local Businesses Responses on NMA’s Seasonal Forecast and Warnings in PRIME
Working Areas.
3.2.1 Introduction
Small business through creating a different set of livelihood opportunities can play a vital
role in bolstering their respective woreda’s overall resilience to climate and weather related
hazards and impacts. Extreme weather events associated with climate change pose a variety
of direct and indirect risks to small businesses which are sensitive to climate change.
In the present assessment nine local business organizations, which are climate sensitive, were
identified for further investigations. The profile of these businesses organizations is annexed
in table 16.
3.2.2 Climate change related hazards for Local Businesses
All businesses organizations responded that they are experiencing some kind of disruption as
a result of extreme weather or climate events, experiencing more subtle effects on
productivity or market of products. Drought, pest and disease, erratic rainfall, and heat stress
are the major hazards they are facing. The different businesses, based on the different
woredas, have distinct climate impacts, defining particular climate services to particular
business in order to prepare and enable them make relevant decisions, in response to current
and future climate related hazards and impacts. Owners believed that the loss because of
climate hazards is too huge to run a business. Mainstreaming climate information in their
business planning and make their business climate smart is something they must do to sustain
their business.
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3.2.3 Access to weather and climate Information for local buisnesses
The majority of participants of the local businesses surveyed (90%) respond that they have
not closely analyzed the potential economic losses from extreme weather events or other
climate-related risks, mainly because they do not have any access to relevant weather and
climate information for making the analysis. All the business owners responded that they
have never received climate forecast from NMA or other sources which are specific and
relevant enough to make an informed decision for their business. In fact, all of these
businesses have no disaster recovery plan; hence, are uniquely vulnerable to damage from
extreme weather events, and accompanying hazards.
3.2.4 Type of Climate information and forecasting time required by business holders.
The business community is increasingly analyzing the risks, opportunities, and financial
implications of climate change and showed the willingness to integrate any relevant climate
and weather information, if made available, into short and long term business plans.
The major climatic information required by the business firms are drought, rainfall pattern&
volume, and disease and pest with percentage of 89, 78 and 56, respectively. The remaining
information needed by the business firms are flood, heat stress, and wind storm. etc. More
than 60 per cent of business holders requested drought /rainfall information to reach them up
to three months ahead of the hazard, which would be sufficient time to make some business
adjustment. The detail information on type of information and forecasting time is available
on appendix table17.
3.2.5Forecast Information dissemination channels for business holders
The respondents gave different options for receiving NMA forecast and early warning
information, where extension agent and radio and TV programs in local language got 78 and
45 per cent preferences respectively. The other options suggested were bulletin/leaflets, and
mobile message and call which takes both 22 per cent preference (appendix table no18).
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3.2.6Types of decision to be taken by business people in response to climate information
Forecast.
Several values are identified and attached to the climate information listed above as
important, by the business owners. For the most frequently mentioned hazard, drought, an
information about the impeding drought hazard is identified as being very useful for it allows
the owners to store the available pasture/ feed for the anticipated drought period, or to “buy”
a time so that they could move their animals to a better situated areas, for access to water
and pasture. Some businesses, e.g. crop sellers in Harshin woreda, said they could
diversify, away from crop production, to other livelihood activities, if they receive such
information prior to starting of the cropping season.
A warning about potential flooding is mentioned useful to make a decision earlier to take
their animals to higher plateau areas (or mountains), away from the flood prone areas.
Flood information is also valued as important, to build protective shelters for animals or
strengthen the existing shelters, for example, using plastic roofs.
All of businesses identified as crop selling cooperatives responded that if flooding
happens, their farms will be out of productions because of “water logging”, and that if a
warning about the impeding floods is provided; they will practice soil conservation
schemes or build gullies around the farm to avoid water logging. It is noted that, unlike
the live animal traders, they get the crops to be sold from their own farms, and they
indicated that there is no major supplier for their business, other than themselves.
There are some well-known seasonal pests/ diseases occurring being associated with a
certain pattern of weather and climate, such as Small pox, “Gedanod”, “Shelen”, Anthrax,
CBPP etc., hence, the other information mentioned as being important for the local
businesses decision making, i.e. impeding pests/ diseases warning, is mentioned as
invaluable to plan for vaccinations, ahead of the actual prevalence of such diseases,
further is important to take maximum precaution not to buy sick animals. Also such
information would be useful to plan purchase of pesticides or drugs (if the disease is
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specified), plan for vaccinations, or for looking advices from experts, or even to make a
decision for destocking
Rainfall information is identified for such decisions, as for example, to decide the time and
place for buying and selling animals (potential markets), to decide where to keep their stocks
temporarily (move to other climatically better situated neighboring or remote woredas) , to
decide for destocking, to buy supplemental feeds for their animals, or even to engage in
rehabilitation ( forage production).
Temperature information is highlighted, as being important in that it helps to make
decisions on watering frequency, helps, also, to make decision for keeping their animal
either under shading trees or in free grazing areas, whereas wind information is
mentioned by one business organization, in Teltele woreda, as being important to save
from wild fire and uncover their animals house’s, for better air conditioning, particularly
during dry periods.
3.2.7Perception of business owners’ accuracy of NMA Climate forecast information.
The business groups responded for the accuracy expected from NMA’s climate forecast to be
of some use and very useful. The majority (33 per cent) of business groups prefer the
minimum value of NMA’s forecast accuracy for at least some use should be 70 per cent
accuracy level (Appendix table no 19). While to call NMA’s forecast information very useful
to make major decisions should be at least 90 per cent according to the majority of business
groups’ respondents (56 per cent).
3.3Climate Information and Early Warning Systems Requirement ByWoreda Sectorial
Organizations.
3.3.1 Experts’ Perception on Past Extreme Events and Current climate Hazards
Drought, water scarcity, flood, pest and disease, heavy rainfall, heat stress, and erratic
rainfall were identified as hazards occurring almost in all woredas surveyed, while invasive
weed species (Prosopis), conflict, and wind erosion are mentioned as being a threat.
22
Extreme weather conditions are mentioned as recurrent phenomenon, with major climate
related hazards such as drought, floods, and erratic rainfall threatened almost all the Woredas
with different levels of magnitudes, between the years 2009 and 2013. Conflict, which is
occurring almost every year following rainfall deficiency, causes the loss of many
pastoralists’ lives and their assets.
Drought ranks first (70%) followed by disease and pest (40%). Conflict is mentioned as third
priority problem following by flood. Though drought is top one problem for most woredas,
there are woreda where flood or heat stress is ranked first. The detail is available in appendix
table no20.
3.3.2 Perception of Experts towards Climate Change
In most of the considered woreda’s contexts, the local government sectorial offices’ efforts to
develop and communicate climate change information have been focused on building
awareness of climate change adaptation within the different sectors. There is an assumption
that this baseline knowledge creates the groundwork for integrating climate change
information into formal decision making. In all cases, however, greater efforts are still
needed to actively encourage the use of evidence-based climate change-relevant information
in decisions making by the sectorial experts, and to effectively integrate climate drivers of
change.
The experts perceived that there will be more hazard impacts in the future unless appropriate
intervention is made. They also believe that heat intensity, number of hot days and erratic
rainfall will increase and rainfall volume will decrease in the future reinforcing the climate
change related hazards more.
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3.3.3 Key Challenges for Utilizing Climate Data and Information by the Sectorial
Offices.
It was mentioned that poor access to climate data and information, lack of understandability,
and ineffective dissemination channels of climate information as bottlenecks contributing to
the limited ability of Sectorial offices in pastoral and agro-pastoral areas to use climate data
and information for decision-making and local development planning.
.
3.3.3.1. Access to whether and climate information
The experts identified that one of the key challenges to the pastoral and agro-pastoral areas is
the lack of climate information. Current infrastructure in these areas is often not as reliable or
powerful as the highland regions. For example, the pastoral / agro-pastoral areas have an
inadequate number of meteorological stations for climate data collection, and even if there
are some lower level observing stations, they are either not functional or that the data being
relayed to the regional offices, in some cases, would be of poor quality . For example, the
HU team has observed a third ordered meteorological station in Harshin woreda of the
Somali Region, confirmed to relay data to the regional meteorological office; but identified
through the expert’s interview that the station were recently off duty.
In some woredas, e.g., Teltele, the experts mentioned the presence of no meteorological
stations, though there is a 3rd level observing station, which is functional, and in fact relaying
the observed climate parameters to the Hawasa regional meteorology branch office. This
discrepancy in the information, added to the fact that the experts mentioned the lack of access
to any sort of relevant climate information for decisions making, from the NMA, could
further strength the conclusion to be drawn, even, as an absolute lack of awareness, and
absence of knowledge in regard to the services provided by the NMA, the importance of such
information in informed decision making, and their value for an effective early warnings of
impeding hazards, are not being utilized, even at lower levels, by the actors and practitioners
at the woreda levels.
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Almost all the respondents highlighted that the bureaus are not receiving any kind of
forecasts and warnings from the NMA, tailored to their specific sectorial decisions making;
and that they, solely, hear a general forecast from the Ethiopian Radio and Television, which
are not being utilized for any sort of decision making, owing to the fact that the information
contained in such a forecast is very vague, covering a wide spatial coverage, and of little or
no locally relevant details. For example, the experts from the Awash Fentale woreda
responded that, with a forecast for South Afar, they would perceive the areas included to
cover "Duluche", Gewane, and that south of "Semera", considering the center of a forecast
for South Afar to be at "Semera", highlighting that such information is irrelevant to decision
makings at the woreda or Kebele levels. Generally speaking, there is no locally tailored
information available for decision making.
3.3.3.2. Knowledge and previous experiences in the use of the climate information for
decisions making.
Not only is access to climate data and information limited, but also is the capacity of local
sectorial institutions and their experts to determine what climate data and information is
needed in decision-making for climate sensitive livelihood activities in some cases.
Key challenges in defining needs include limited expertise and training in climate science,
and the application of climate information for decision making. Guidance on how to use
existing climate observations and projections to inform decisions is, thus, currently
constrained for the experts in the various sectorial bureaus.
But the values of such information are acknowledged, almost by all the respondents, owing
to frequent hazards affecting the overall livelihood activities, and the lives of the
communities.
In some woredas, for example, Teltele, experts from the local government sectorial bureaus
outlined that before the seasons starts, they will engage in awareness creation activities and
provide advisories for the communities, based, solely, on their previous experiences on how
25
the seasons turned out to be. Some of the advisories from the experts included, for example,
an advice to save and store the un-harvested products from "Teff" production in the agropastoral areas of Teltele woreda, during the rainy season, to be used as a feed for the
following long dry season; another advice is to start preparing seed beds earlier in March;
with further notice that since the woreda is a rainfall deficit area, in general, the communities
should prefer an early maturing varieties.
3.3.3.3 Dissemination channels for climate information
The lack of basic telecommunications for the sectorial offices in pastoral areas, including
internet access, is a strong limiting factor in exchanging information. For some Woredas, e.g.
Teltele, there is no access to electricity, which limits the choices for available information
exchange mechanisms.
The experts from the Woreda sectorial offices place an emphasis on existing infrastructures
and technologies, which can be made available for exchanging climate and weather
information and relay the same to the end users at kebele levels.
In addition to the above preferred dissemination channels almost all the sectorial experts, in
all the Woredas, appreciated the need for Training of Trainers (ToTs) for sectorial experts,
covering wide spectrums, including the climate information and services available from the
NMA, organized delivery of the seasonal forecasts and methods of interpreting the forecasts
for their respective sectorial decisions makings. Further, the KII interviews preferred locally
tailored climate information to be broadcasted in their local languages on Radio and
Television programs (appendix table no21).
3.3.4 Information Needs
The performance of the seasonal rainfall and the magnitude of extreme temperatures are
identified as the most important elements of the climate/weather for the woreda level
sectorial decisions making; the reason being that the fate of the pastoral / agro-pastoral
26
woreda’s livelihoods is totally dependent on how the different seasons turn out to behave, in
terms of these important climate parameters.
Livestock production is dependent on the seasonal rainfall, which in turn decides the fate of
Pasture availability; while intense rainfall had been the principal cause for frequent flooding
in some woredas, e.g. Awash Fentale. For others, e.g., Teltele woreda, rather, it is the
absence or scarcity of rainfall, which has a detrimental impact, both, for the pastoralists, and
agro-pastoralists. The same is true for Dire woreda, a rain which was falling for about six
months long, annually, is becoming very erratic, e.g. for the year 2013 only 21 days (for the
long rainy season) and 7 days (for the short rainy season) received rain.
The periods of extreme high temperature right before the rainy season starts is mentioned as
a useful parameter in some woredas, as it is a period for land preparation, and that the high
temperatures would help disinfect the harmful insects/ parasites in the soil. Information about
extremely high temperature is also identified as important for the pastoralists, as it results in
excessively high evaporation rate, with a subsequent scarcity of water. The experts, further,
outlined that access to information on temperature magnitude and frequency is very
important for Pastoralists, because during periods of extremely high temperature there is a
critical scarcity of water, and that the animals, which are already weakened by the critical
scarcity of water, would be further weakened, be un willing to go out in search of feed or
become resistant to feed on the available pasture, and seek for a shade from the extreme heat,
subsequently, affecting the animals physiology. The same holds true for the agro-pastoralists
as well. Because of the extremely high temperature, damages are becoming eminent, on the
leaves of crops and other important plats, such as a sun-burn. Moreover, high temperature is
resulting in high evaporation rate, reducing the volume of the water harvested in the
community managed ponds.
One very important example, mentioned in the Amibara woreda KII interview, regarding the
application of information on temperature is that because of high temperature, and extreme
heat, the pumps efficiency to pull water up is affected. So, if we have forecast information
about extreme temperature, we limit the use of the pumps for not more than 4 hours a day,
27
but on a normal day we use it for about 8 hrs per day. We, thus, schedule the time to fetch
water and inform the communities to get water for their animals.
It is on the bases of the amount of rain expected that the agro-pastoralists saw their crops; for
example, if the amount expected is good, maize (or other long cycle crops) will be preferred,
and if not other crop types, like chickpea (short cycle varieties) would be sown. Further, if
the expected frequency of rainy days in the season is short, maize would not be an ideal crop
for the season, as it requires water for critical stages of its growth. The same is true for
pastoralists, when the frequency is high, the dry periods will be short, and it has its own
livelihood implications.
Regarding the rainfall distribution, because the woreda’s are structured to consist Kebeles
dispersed over a wider area, the seasonal rain fall with a pattern isolating even neighboring
Kebeles, leaving some kebeles in critical absence of rainfall, in almost all the Woredas
included in the KII interviews, making such information irreplaceable. The rainfall
distribution, is also, mentioned as being important to track water and pasture availability, to
provide information for those communities dwelling in rain deficit Kebeles to enable them
prepare for the possible drought condition and know where they could access water and
pasture for their animals, or else to plan for possible water tracking (Rationing) for the dry
season.
The onset and end date of rainfall is important because currently the pattern of rainfall is
highly erratic, and the Woredas are receiving an intermittent rain throughout the rainy
season, hence, these characteristics are very essential, than ever, to know when, in what way,
and at what scale the livelihood activities should be engaged in, and what kind of decisions
will be important etc.
In light of such backgrounds, the amount, magnitude, intensity, frequency of rainy days,
onset and end date of rainfall, dry and wet spells, and the spatial distribution of rainfall,
hence, are identified as very important characteristics of rainfall by all the experts
interviewed for all the woredas.
28
Participants in the KII interview sessions highlighted information and capacity challenges in
decision contexts related to value added information and services, such as hydrometeorological and agro-meteorological advisories, and integration of climate information in
the existing early warning systems, as invaluable to their decision making.
3.3.5 Types of Decision by the Woreda Experts.
Because different woredas bureaus have distinct climate impacts, defining the particular
needs of each is important in order to prepare and enable them make relevant decisions, in
response to current and future climate related hazards and impacts.
In some cases, a woreda might need both types of information, above and below normal
rainfall for the season, but the information might need to reach different kebeles, within the
woreda. The need for such data and information varies depending on the context of available
resources and particular livelihood activities the communities engaged in.
The elements of the climate and weather, and their characteristics, are identified to be
important and invaluable for different types of decisions making such as water harvesting,
storing available pasture, water rationing, migration, moving animals to hill areas,
destocking, etc.,
3.3.6 Experts’ Suggestion on the Way Forward
The key to improving the use of climate information and services is to build the capacity of
the woredas sectorial experts to understand, demand, and use climate information and
services.
It is stressed that sectorial experts must be equipped to appropriately interpret and apply
climate information while also clearly understanding the possibilities and limitations of the
information. As the experts are working as intermediaries between the end users and the
NMA, they must be trained and enabled to translate the scientific concepts into language that
users can understand and apply.
29
On the other hand, climatologists, in the National Meteorology Agency, must develop a
better understanding of the information needs of different user groups so that outputs can be
effectively targeted.
The NMA should organize workshops, dialogue, and regular exchanges with climate
communities, including woreda experts, on available forecast information, their potential use
for sectorial decision making, along with the value added products including agrometeorological and hydro-meteorological advisories. Regional Meteorological branches
should consider multi-sectorial climate outlook forums, at the woreda level, as a priority in
this respect.
In order to improve climate and/or weather forecasts and warnings application in the
woredas, participants identified the following needs as a priority that the government or the
NMA should do:
A better climate service for decision making must ensure that the NMA climate
services be able to respond to local users, often by providing locally relevant
information and services, which is identified as the missing component

There is a gap between what is currently being received by the woreda sectorial
experts (daily weather forecasts from Radio / Tv) and what is needed for the
achievement of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs)

There is lack of knowledge and understanding of available climate information and
how development decisions could be made absorbing those information, so the
capacity to tailor information appropriately to the pastoral communities, by the
sectorial offices, is low
 The experts interviewed outlined that integrating climate information into
decisions making, is a new science and approach, even for the experts, thus,
awareness creation and capacity building activities should be conducted at
various levels (Woreda, Kebele, Villages, etc.) in a continuous and sustainable
way
 A climate desk center at the Woreda level, mandated for receiving and
disseminating the forecast information should be established, and a well-
30
trained and capacitated focal person should be assigned for the Woreda level
Climate information desk to be established
 The Regional Meteorology should organize a ToT for woreda experts, and
then the experts will in turn train DA's, CAWS, ultimately reaching the end
users

Coordination among relevant sectorial departments, for better exchange of climate
information, should be looked in to

Appropriate budget, and the necessary logistics should be allocated, we have
transport problem to reach communities

Because of erratic pattern of rainfall distributions within the woredas, meteorological
stations should be established, with a reasonable coverage of woredas, the existing
ones should be functional, and inspections should be made regularly

Information should reach them through different means of communication
technologies such as internet, radio, printed media etc., and

There should be proper exit strategy when NGOs projects are phased out. For instant,
weather stations established by NGOs for development work are terminated and not
properly administered soon after the project is phased out.
3.4 Output of dialogue with Woreda higher officials
3.4.1 Official’s perspective on local and NMA seasons
There are three major seasons used by NMA for providing forecast and early warning
information. These are named Bega (October to January), Belg (February to May) and
Kiremet (June to September). The seasons known to community at all regions considered for
this study purpose are four. The names and period of these seasons vary from cluster to
cluster. The names of these seasons at each cluster and their period are indicated on the
following table.
Table 3 : Local seasons in pastoralist areas
Afar (Awash Fentale)
Somali ( Afdem Woreda)
31
Oromia (Dire)
Seasons Type
of
season
Karma Main
rain
Period
Seasons Types
of
seasons
July and Keren
Main
August
rain
Period
Seasons Type
of
season
August – Gena
Main
October’15
rain
Jilal
Sept…to
February
Jilal
Long
dry
Oct’15March’15
Adolesa Short
dry
Shugum Short
rain
March & Drea
April
Short
rain
March’15May
Hagay
Hagay
May
June
Short
dry
June
July
Long
dry
Short
dry
& Hagay
Fig 1: Rainfall Monitoring of Somali Region
3.4.2 Impact of the seasons on livelihoods.
32
Short
rain
& Bona
Long
Hagaya dry
Period
March
20
to
May 20
May 20
to Sept
20
Sept 20
to
Nov’15
Nov’15
to
March
20
Different seasons impacted the community in different ways. The main activities and impact
of each season at the three clusters may differ a little bit. The details of seasonal effects at
these three clusters are briefly described as follows.
3.4.2.1 Impact of the seasons on livelihoods in Afar Cluster (Awash Fentale)
Karma Season is rainy season that mostly benefits the community by improving feed and
water availability and consequently improve productivity of animals. However, the heavy
rains in the beginning of the season causes mortality to many of weak animals that were
suffering during the long Jilal, very short shugum and continued dry period of hagay.
Trifolium species (Kurunchit) is one of legume that widely grown during this season and
causes disease to animals.
Shugum is short rainy season that is very important that sustains t has also block he
livelihood of the animals and the community as well. The rain fall during this season has
been declined over time and caused serious shortage of feed and water, loss of animal body
weight, disease, and unusual migration on pastoralists. The expansion of agricultural project
of large farms and invasion of Prosopis species in the area aggravates the problem.
Hagay is short dry season which is normal if shugum season is good. These days rain during
shugum season is declined which makes the hagay season also to be worse in terms of
vegetation and water availability. The heat stress incident increased, conflict, disease, low
productivity and absence of milk characterizes the season. In severe cases heavy winds and
dust storms, dry of rivers and absence of irrigation water is happening.
Woreda higher officials have been taking different decisions in response to the changing
climatic conditions. They involve in productive safety net programmes, area enclosures, pond
construction, and hand pump supply, transition to agriculture in water areas, use of early
maturing crops (teff, forage and maize technologies).
3.4.2.2 Impact of the seasons on livelihoods in Eastern Cluster
Keren is main rain season with good pasture, demand for livestock and better productivity.
This season is wedding time in Afdem woreda of Somali region. The problem during this
33
season is formation of gullies that impede movement of vehicles, fall of electric poles due to
winds during rain.
Jilal is the longest dry season in Somali area same as that of Afar region. During this season
shortage of feed and water that result is poor body condition of animals is prominent. In
order to access feed and water usually pastoralists move their animals to highland and better
feed areas; which the cause of conflict with society where the pastoralists are moving into.
The long distance travel and watering every other or two days cause loss of body weight and
productivity of animals.
Derea is short rainy season the impacted the society by attracting animals from distant areas
to share feed and watering points and ultimately causes overgrazing and water shortage.
Spread of contagious disease from incoming animals is also common that finally resulted in
conflict between the outsiders. Unexpected heavy rain fall also attacks weak animals and lead
to death of such animals occasionally.
Hagay is short dry season with massive heat stress and malaria outbreak which affect human
health. Movement of animals toward hilly areas is common.
3.4.2.3 Impact of the seasons on livelihoods in Southern Cluster (Dire Woreda)
Genaseason is characterized by main rainy season where farming, crop production and
milking cows practiced. This season is good season for the community in the area. For their
farming activity they expect information on onset of rain and nature of rain in the coming
periods that will help them to decide crop production or not.
Adolesaseason is harvesting period for the crops and marketing period for their animals. The
produces are in good condition during the onset of this season. Failure of selling animals with
body condition this time may cost them a lost in the future as the animal loss its body weight
due to shortage of feed.
Hagaya is season of short rainy where in pocket areas with good moisture crops like barley
will be sown. Cattle fattening is done by moving animal to places with good pasture and
water availability areas.
34
Bona Hagaya is period long dry season where animals loss body condition and productivity.
To sustain the life of animal’s separation of the weaker for special feed in conserved grazing
areas and migration with other animals to places where there is adequate feed and water is
common phenomena. In addition bush clearing and pond construction is common activities
during this period.
3.4.3 Indicators used for forecasting seasonal climate hazards
The participants mentioned that astronomy, animal behavior, starting day of a new year,
smell drifted by Wind, materials surfing on the surface of a river and color of a river, cloud
pattern, bird squeak, and Hayena voice as important indicators of potential hazards in the
community. In Afdem, officials don’t believe in traditional indicators, and they put zero level
of accuracy for all indicators. However, in Awash Fental and Dire, some indictors are
recognized to be indispensable. For instance, predicting drought using Animal Behavior,
rainfall using wind smell, and flood using surfing materials on a river has 47.5 %, 50%, and
80% level of accuracy respectively (Appendix table no22). However, none of these
traditional indicators has been considered in development and DRR planning.
Local government offices sometimes get climate change related information from DPP
bureau to plan and implement activities. DPP bureau collects data about weather, pasture,
livestock, market conditions using proxy indicators such as on set of rain, water level of
‘Birka’ and pond, pasture greenness/dryness, species diversity, livestock physical condition,
livestock productivity ( meat and milk quality and quantity), health condition of animals,
market price, and commodity demand and supply to forecast hazards ( Appendix table no23
). The DPPB at woreda level is mandated to collect and send the data to regional office
which in turn compile and send to the national office which is responsible to analyze the data
and make an informed decision for intervention. A few years before there were volunteer
Community Data Collectors (CDC) who tracks the indicators and report to EW experts at
woreda level, but now CDCs are dissolved. The woreda EW experts have to go around and
fill a ready-made checklist after making a critical assessment on the key indicators mostly
through observation, and report to the regional office every week through phone and every
month through hardcopy. Woreda officials (Cabinee) visit the area every month. When
35
potential hazard is reported experts form federal level come and make assessment. It is based
on the report of the federal experts an emergency intervention is declared. However, the
responses from the government are very late in most cases. The main disadvantage of these
proxy indicators is that they are noticed only when a hazard nearly strikes the community.
Besides, the emergency process is very lengthy. The raw data coming from the woreda has to
be compiled at regional level with all the other woredas which may not be reported timely
and probably are not at risk at all; then the region reports to the federal level; then the federal
government has to send its committee for further assessment and approval of a potential
hazard; based on the report of the federal committee a fund is raised for emergency from
stakeholders; and the aid finally transported and provided. In most cases, when the aid is
provided, the hazard already stroke and brought a huge toll. In case of disaster, the vulnerable
woreda is responsible to account 5% of the total emergency budget, the region 15% and the
rest is covered by the federal government.
The other major problem in DPPB early warning system is that information are not coming
back to the end users after collected and reported from bottom-up unless there is a potential
hazard. This explicitly implies that the DDPB is still focused on emergency responses and
did not move to preparedness and prevention measures.
3.4.4 Potential decisions for NMA’s seasonal forecasts
Government bureaus at woreda level could benefit from seasonal climate forecasts through
integrating climate information in development planning and providing advisories for the
community they are serving. The workshop participants, who represent different
organizations, were asked what normal rainfall means to them and the decision they would
be making if they received a seasonal climate forecast which is above or below normal
rainfall. The definition of normal rainfall varies a little bite from workshop to workshop. For
Dire worda it is “a rain that falls after 10:00 O’clock local time in the evening and continued
until the morning of the next day, and fills all available ponds and flourishes the pasture of
the land.” For Afdem it is “a rain that starts and ends at the expected time, and has good
volume to saturate the land well and covers all the areas.” for Afar it is “a rain that
continually falls for expected months with good volume and distribution.”
36
The local governmental bureaus will make short and long term decisions including warning
the communities, mobilizing resources for basic humanitarian emergency responses,
conserving and protecting the environment, provide training on EWI and prevention
measures, resolving conflict etc., and provide advisories such as livestock diversification,
destocking, storage, saving, and others in response to bad climate forecast. The detail of the
type of climate forecasts, the decision and the advisories are described below (Table 4).
3.4.5 Needs and constraints for the seasonal climate forecast.
Government offices also desperately need the NMA climate/weather forecasts to plan and
apply prevention measures mentioned above. Drought, Pest and disease, erratic rainfall,
flood, and heat stress are hazards on which timely warning is required. The time the
information should be delivered in advance so that bureaus will get enough time to
appropriately respond to a hazard differs from one cluster to the other. For instance drought
information is required before 3 months in Afdem and Dire Woredas whereas two months are
perceived to be enough to act in Awash Fental woreda. Pest and disease information is
required 1-3 months in advance; erratic rainfall 1-2 months in advance; flood 1-2 months in
advance; and heat stress one moth in advance. Officials suggested that these climate/weather
forecast warnings should reach to them preferably through internet, electronic board (ECXexperience), SMS text, focal person, phone, and official letter. Most of the participants
preferred focal person as the best means of communication followed by phone and then letter
(appendix table no 24).
37
Table 4 : Local governmental bureaus’ decisions and advisories for potential below and above normal rainfall seasonal
forecast.
Woreda Seasonal
Forecast
Dire
Below
Normal
Rainfall
Awash
Fetale
Above
normal
rainfall
Below
Normal
Rainfall: the
community
say that “
land is lost
from Segum
and People
is lost from
Government
”, and “ a
land without
Segum
is
Short term decisions
o
o
o
o
Long term decisions
Water rationing
o
Marketing awareness
o
Mobilizing resources
Conservation of pasture and o
water
o
o
o
o
Dike
preparation
or
dam
construction in case flood is a
threat.
o Informing the problem to the
concerned body
o Preparing feed
o Informing or warning the
community
o Exploring areas with adequate
pasture and water using “ Edo”
system
o Special follow up for children
and pregnant women as they
are affected much by scarcity
of water
Water harvesting
Area enclosure ( for
dry season)
Training
Re-settlement
Saving and credit
Technology utilization
Sedenterazation
Advisories
o Sow
drought
resistant crops
o Irrigation
o Destocking
o Moving animals to
green areas
o Diversity livelihood
o Differentiate pond
for animal and for
human
o Breed your animals
o Settling
conflicts o Selling
animals
between different clan
with good price and
groups so that the
sterile ones and
buffer zones will be
purchasing feed for
used in case of hazards
the rest of the
o Starting the DRR and
animals
emergency program
o Killing newly born
o Resettlement
animals
o Strengthening social o Moving
animals
networks
expect
those
pregnant
and
lactating
o Saving and credit
38
Afdem
like a man
who lost his
elder
brother.”
Above
o Informing the community
normal
about the hazard so that they
rainfall
will harvest and store their
crops in a good place
o Implement
emergency
activities such as
dam
construction
for
flood
prevention.
o Providing professional support
to victims very closely.
Below NRF o Water tracking
(Jilale
o Emergency ( food,
feed ,
season)
medicine and drug provision,
digging well, distribution of
contingency ratio, giving geomemberane,
vaccination,
agricultural tools, and drug etc)
ANRF
(Kerema)
Awareness
Mobilization
o Resettlement to peak areas
o Storage
o providing sustainable o Harvest their crops
seasonal
climate o Resettling to areas
forecast
for
the
( peak places) where
community
flood doesn’t reach
o providing training on Moving animals to
prevention measures green areas
for key hazards like
flood
o implementing soil and
water conservation
o Conflict resolution
o Re-settlement
o Nutrition
o Early warning
o Environmental
conservation
(
afforestation,
rehabilitation)
o Resource saving
o Awareness
cration
regarding EWI and
prevention measures
o Soil and water
conservation
o Water harvesting (
Bonds, and Birka)
39
4. Conclusion and Recommendation
Conclusion
The potential end-users of climate information are the community, local businesses people,
and government officers at lower structure. In the PRIME targeted areas of Somali, Afar and
Oromia regions ultimate user of climate information have never received any
climate/weather forecasts and warnings from NMA. NMA prepares seasonal climate
forecasts and outlooks at regional level and disseminate the information to national sectorial
offices through workshops and bulletins. However, the information remains at regional level
and doesn’t go down to the actual end-users. Moreover, the seasonal climate forecast
information is very much aggregated and focused mainly to crop production areas, and lacks
local relevance.
The community and local businesses use traditional indicators whereas Government offices
use proxy indicators to forecast potential hazards. The traditional early warning system has
been very important in preventing communities from hazards to some extent. However, it is
no longer dependable as it is less accurate, less acceptable, unsustainable, and very much
restricted. Moreover, it is challenged by religious leaders, climate change, and conflict.
The communities comprehend the huge limitations of the traditional early warning
information, and they are now greatly interested to use NMA climate forecasts and warnings,
and very much willing to pay for the services provided. Information on drought, pest and
disease, erratic rainfall, heat stress, and flood are highly required. There is no much
difference in climate information requirement across the different end-users. The NMA
seasonal climate forecast should be customized to pastoral areas’ seasons. The users
highlighted that the information should be of high quality, very specific, and reach them
timely. It should be prepared in local languages for ease of understanding and should reach to
them mainly through extension agents (focal persons), radio, TV, and mobile SMS.
40
Recommendation
The NMA and the Government can improve the EWI system in pastoral areas by conducting
the following activities. In pastoral areas weather information is less important as compared
its use in crop production areas; hence, NMA should provide climate information in pastoral
areas. For pastoral and agro-pastoral communities long range (mid-season and seasonal
climate) forecast is more important than short and Mid-range (weather) forecasts. Forecasts
should be tailored to local seasons which are somehow different from the one the NMA is so
far using, and it should be downscaled to kebele level, not at woreda or Regional level. The
information should not be limited to the target areas. It should be expand to the broader
grazing system where pastoralists could potentially move in search of pasture and water. The
climate information should have a high level of accuracy as per the request of end users; and
it has to be understandable, relevant and reach end users timely. The severity of climate
change induced shocks to the society demands NMA to capacitate itself and provide up to
standard forecast and warnings to the community.
Government should facilitate and follow up designing of appropriate dimension channel to
end-users and monitor the timely delivery of the climate forecasts and warnings through
establishing a climate desk center at woreda level, which is responsible for receiving and
disseminating climate information; involving key stakeholders in the data collection,
analysis, preparation, and dissemination of climate forecast information; raising awareness of
stakeholders about early warning information. The focal person can also disseminate the
traditional early warning system until NMA services and products meet user’s requirement;
documenting the traditional early warning system as it is threatened by conflict, climate
change, and religious teachings; establish more automatic weather stations in pastoralist
areas, combining and using the ground-based data with satellite data, and conducting further
studies on traditional indicators commonly used and perceived to have better accuracy.
In general for plan of eradicating poverty throughout the country and gradual transformation
of pastoralists to agro-pastorals, government should keenly follow up climate forecast
information and early warning advisory services to the pastoral community.
41
Annex
Table 5: Communities Hazard Priorities.
Hazard type
Rank of a Hazard
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
Drought
13 7
0
0 0
Flood
0 2
2
2 5
Erratic rainfall
2 0
3
6 1
Disease and pest 1 6
6
6 1
Heat stress
1 1
1
5 8
Heavy rainfall
0 1
1
1 0
Conflict
1 4
2
0 0
Wind
1 0
1
0 0
NA
0
9
8
0
4
16
13
18
Table 6: Communities Perception towards frequency of Hazards.
Hazard type
Heat
Drought
Flood
Erratic rainfall
Pest and
Disease
Heavy rainfall
Conflict
Wind
Every
year
10
6
3
6
6
Hazard Frequency ( count)
Once in
Once in
Once in more
two years
three years
than 3 years
2
2
2
11
1
2
2
1
4
5
1
1
8
2
3
1
4
0
0
3
0
1
0
0
0
1
1
Hazard type
42
4
0
10
7
1
16
12
19
Table 7: Hazard type and Perceived Impact Magnitude in Pastoral Areas.
Hazard Magnitude ( count)
Very serious Medium Low Very low
Heat
3
5
1
7
Drought
18
2
0
0
Flood
2
2
3
4
Erratic rainfall
2
7
0
4
Pest and Disease 6
9
2
3
Heavy rainfall
1
1
1
1
Conflict
4
1
1
1
wind
0
0
0
1
Total
36
27
8
21
NA
NA
4
0
9
7
0
16
13
19
Table 8: Astronomical observation based on Region and livelihood
Region
Woreda
livelihood
Forecast
Astronomical observation
ed
hazard
Afar
Gewane
pastoral
Multiple
A flying star locally called “Kimen” normally
Hazards ( appears in every long rainy season. If it shoots
drought , and rain follows soon then a good season is
rain,
expected.
wind,
conflict,
flood )
Amibara
Agro-
Rainfall
The appearance of moon and star at equal level
pastoral
indicates good rainy season.
pastoral
Stars tell the occurrence of rainfall but they do
not know the details
Awash
Agro-
Fentale
pastoral
pastoal
Mentioned stars but don’t know the details
Drought
&
Elders predict the occurrence of drought , pest
pest and disease by looking at the stars
and
disease
Somalia
Harshin
pastoral
e
Weather
Traditional
forecasters
use
predictio
movement to predict the weather
astronomical
n
Kebribe
Agro-
Year
If moon and small stars appear together a good
ya
pastoral
condition
year is expected if they are distant away a bad
(what
is one is expected
good year
and
bad
year
for
43
them?)-
Good
“ Sukria” star normally appears every year. If it
rainfall
disappears for six day and reappear again a
through
good rainy season is expected but if it
the year
disappears for 6 months a dry season is
expected
Afdem
Agro-
Year
5 stars together with moon and covered with
pastoral
condition
cloud implies good year and if not covered with
/animal
cloud a bad year is expected. Predicts which
and place animal is good for the season and which places
preferenc
are free from pest and disease
e
pastoral
Mullo
pastoral
A star appears from east implies a good year
Drought
Sukria( star)-it rises 8 months in the west and 4
months in the east. When it rises in the west it
implies erratic rainfall otherwise no-drought (
good rainfall) ( 1st best used)
Oromia
Teletele
Agro-
Rainfall
7 stars ( very shining) – if they appear on the
pastorl
volume--
usual position rain is ok but if they appear out
-
of their normal position then there will be
rainfall shortage. Sun-shine/set position- if the
sun changes its raising or setting position then
rainfall shortage is expected
Dire
Agro-
Rainfall-- Star watching " if a certain type of star is seen,
pastoral
then there will be rain within the coming three
days
pastoral
Drought
Urji- large star locally called “ Bakalch”
44
changing its position and moving to the middle
sky implies drought
Moyale
Agro-
Rainfall-
pastoral
Urji ( star) –used to indicate rainfall but it
disappeared now
and
pastoral
Table 9: Wind Direction Forecast based on Region and livelihood
Region
Afar
Woreda
Gewane
Livelihood
Agro-pastoral
Forecasted
Wind
Direction
Forecast
Hazard
Description
Seasonal
Wind from east…summer rain
Rainfall
Dust storm---Belg rain
Drought/rainfall
Wind
Pastoral
Awash
Agro-pastoral
Fentale
from
North…indicates
drought is coming; while wind
from south east indicates rain is
coming---pastoral
Somalia Harshin
Agro-pastoral
Rainfall
e
Wind Direction Northerly - Dry
Southerly - Rain
Easterly - Heavy Rain
pastoral
Kebribe
Agro-pastoral
ya
If the wind blew from East to West
and not come back early it implies
that rain won’t come soon and if it
does come soon it means it will rain
soon
on set of rainy Fore (wind)blows from West to
Rainfall pattern
season --
East indicate on set of rainy season
and on the contrary if it blows from
west it implies dry spell.
pastoral
Rainfall
45
During Belg season Wind blowing
from East
implies dry spell
whereas wind bellowing from west
implies on set of rainfall
Mullo
Agro-pastoral
Drought/rain
From east direction- Rain
From west- Drought
Pastoral
Rainfall
Wind direction : wind blowing
from S to N implies that rain starts
soon ( on set of rain) whereas
Wind blowing from NE to S
implies that rain will stop and dry
season follow ( outset of rain)
Table 10: Animal Behavior Indicator based on Region and livelihood
Region
Woreda
Livelihood
Afar
Amibara
Agropastoral
AwashFentale
Somalia Kebribey
a
Agropastoral
Pastoral
Oromia
Mullo
Pastoral
Dire
Pastoral
Hazard
Forecasted
Drought
Unique Animal Behavior
o Cows eat animal carcass
o Carcass aren’t eaten by Hyena
o Hyena doesn’t bark
Rain is coming
o Animal Salivation
soon
o Rolling of unmated sheep
on set of rainfall Termite infestation
Barking of many hyenas
Tortoise come out from a hole
Erratic rainfall
Bird looks like ostrich ( black)
bleaking indicates that next week will
be dry ( best used)
Rain
Bird sing: if the bird sings like “
GuGule” rain will come after 2 weeks
( 2nd best used)
Fox: if it barks from the top of the
watershed and run down to the
watershed then rain will come after 2
weeks
Lion roars @ night: rain is expected (
3 rd best used)
Any hazard
When livestock crowded among each
especially
other and not getting apart implies
Drought
bad year
Livestock refused to go to water
trench implies a bad year
When number of tick increases bad
46
year is expected
Moyale
Pastoral
Rainfall
Bird song : if it sings at night like “
chechecheche” there will be rain in
two days. If it sings “ oho—oho”
with lower voice it implies that there
will be no rain
Table 11: Animal Intestine Indicator based on Region and livelihood
Regio
n
Oromi
a
Wored Livelihood
a
Teletele Agro-pastoral
Pastoral
Dire
Agro-pastoral
Pastoral
Hazard Forecasted
Reading Animal Intestine
Not limited to climate
hazards ( rainfall
shortage, drought,
pest and disease )
only it also predicts
security including
death of a person
All hazards climatic
and none- climatic
Moyale and Dire also
know about animal
intestine but they
don’t know the detail
about it
Multipurpose (
drought, pest,
disease, conflict)
Goat intestine is used to for
cast short term hazards
which ranges from a week to
8 years, and
Cattle intestine is used for
long term prediction which is
for more than 8 years.
“ Livestock Mora”
“ Mora” reading
Table 12: First day of a new year indicator based on Region and livelihood
Region
Woreda
Livelihood
Somalia
Harshine
and Afdem
Agropastoral
Harshine
Pastoral
Hazard
Forecasted
Drought
Using Islamic
calendar
system called
Hijri
47
First day of the new year
If a new year starts on
o Friday=good
o Saturday=drought
o Sunday=drought
o Monday=good
o Tuesday=good
o Wednesday=drought
o Thursday=good
if the 1st day of the new year in
Hijira Calendar is :
o Saturday – drought year;
o Sunday- disease and pest,
o Monday-green (good year);
o Tuesday-green;
Mullo
Pastoral
Multi-hazards
o Wednesday-more severe drought
than Saturday;
o Thursday – green; and
o Friday- conflict year ( Nayruus
system)
If the first of the new year is
o Friday=good year
o Saturday=disease
o Sunday=drought
o Monday=good year
o Tuesday=good year ( but less
than Monday)
o Wednesday=conflict
o Thursday=drought + more
hunger
Table 13: Additional Forecast Indicators Based on Region and Livelihood
Region
Woreda
Livelihood
Somalia
Harshine
Pastoral
Mullo
Agropastoral
Drought
Pastoral
Rainfall
Kebribeya Agropastoral
Hazard
Forecasted
Pest and
Disease
rainfall
Pastoral
48
Rainfall
Indicator
Analog Year: They record the
day of a specific year and if a day
shows the same characteristic
then they expect the same climate
followed that day (analogy)
Ground Water Level: If the
ground water level is lower than
it was before than they expect
drought on the contrary if the
level is higher rain is hopped.
If the sky is clear and deep blue
then rain will start soon
Flowering of a tree: Trees flower
( sprawl) for example Acacia
indicates that rain will come soon
Spider net: a spider net on the
ground is an implication that an
army worm infestation is on set.
Night Weather: community
believed that heavy cold at night
implies dry days and hot nights
implies on set of rain.
Flowering of a tree Trees flower (
sprawl) for example Acacia
Oromia
Afar
Teletele
Agropastoral
Dire
Pastoral
Moyale
Pastoral
Amibara
Pastoral
indicates that rain will come soon
Pest and
Earth Crack: an earth crack is an
Disease
indication for pest and disease
prevalence
Rainfall
Cloud Pattern: Cloud appears in
the south good year but when it
doesn’t it implies bad rainy
season
Rainfall
Cloud Pattern: If the cloud forms
a circle in the sky it means that
there is no rain (“O”). if the
cloud forms circle and has a
curved moon inside it implies
good rainy season
Lost
Stone count: “ Rameri” : 34 stone
animals and gravels. They divided in to four
enemies
parts and put them in four
refugee
different holes on ground
surfaces and based on the stones
count found in each holes at last
they predict.
Conflict
“ Genelliye” a witchcraft who
used to predict conflict and death
of a person. While he is prying
he doesn’t allow any woman to
be around. “ Keluwalia” she is a
woman doing the same thing as
Genelliye
Table 14 : Climate forecast/early warning information
Type of
information
Drought/rainfall
Region
Oromia
Somali
Afar
Flood
Oromia
Somali
Afar
Disease &Pest
Oromia
Somali
Afar
Heat
Oromia
stress/Temperature Somali
Afar
Pastoralist
Yes
No
100
0
100
0
100
0
100
0
100
0
100
0
100
0
100
0
100
0
33
67
50
50
33
67
49
Agro pastoralist
Yes
No
100
0
100
0
100
0
100
0
75
25
100
0
67
33
75
25
67
33
67
33
75
25
67
33
Overall
Yes
100
100
100
20
100
50
80
87.5
83
50
62.5
50
NO
0
0
0
80
0
50
20
12.5
17
50
37.5
50
Erratic Rain fall
Oromia
Somali
Afar
Oromia
Somali
Afar
Oromia
Somali
Afar
Oromia
Somali
Afar
Heavy Rain fall
Heavy wind
Rain fall
pattern/volume
33
25
33
0
50
0
0
50
0
67
100
67
67
75
67
100
50
100
100
50
100
33
0
33
67
25
67
0
0
0
0
0
33
100
100
100
33
75
33
100
100
100
100
100
67
0
0
0
50
25
50
0
25
0
0
25
0
83
100
83
50
75
50
100
75
100
100
75
100
17
0
17
Table 15: Overall characteristics of the Local Businesses Identified
Region
Woreda
Local
Business Org
Name (optional)
Eco
Major
Products/ No. of No. of Total Main
.
.
Services
Typ
Sec.
Years
Market
Members
Destination
-
-
10
Harteshek,
in
e
Busine
ss
Somali
Harshin
-
Coo Agr
live
p.
Crops
i.
animals
and
selling, and
Hide and Skin
Kebribya
Afdem
-
-
Coo Agr
p.
i.
Dairy Trade
Coo Agr
p.
i.
Live animals (Goats) 23
7
Jijiga
3
Trade
Djibouti,
Meiso,
Nazarate, Mojo
Mullo
“Hadaya”
cooperative
Afar
Amibara
“Higisa”
livestock trading
Coo Agr
p.
i.
Shoats
4
Coo Agr
p.
i.
Live animals
1 and 38 ( 8 F + 30
Both at Worer,
4,
M) and 41 (
Amibara,
7 F + 32 M)
Dulesa
and “Andio”
Livestock
50
-
Meiso, Afdem
trading
Awash
Abdu
Fentale
Mohammed live
Priv Agr
.
i.
animals export
Oromia
Teltele
-
Live animals trade ( 8
Private
goat, sheep, livestock,
Djibouti,
Somali land
camel )
Coo Agr
p.
i.
Live animals fattening 9
and
trade
-
Brindar
19 F
Dubluk
(goats,
sheep and bulls)
Mega/
“Madhaacha”
Dire
PA / Dire
Moyale
"Dullbo"
fattening
(Goats)
Coo Agr
p.
i.
Live animals trade /
Coo Agr
p.
i.
fattening (Goats) and
2 and 20 M, and 19 ---
LS Trade / Fattening
7
7
Fattening
cooperative
cooperative and
-
51
M
Dubuluk
and
Table 16: Type of Decisions/strategies suggested by communities in response to NMA Forecast
Regio
n
Orom
ia
Livelihoo
d
Praying
yes
Pastoralis 0
t
Agro0
pastoral
Overall
0
Somal Pastoralis 25
i
t
Agro50
pastoral
Overall
37.5
Afar
Pastoralis 33
t
Agro0
pastoral
Overall
17
Purchas
e animal
no
10
0
10
0
10
0
75
yes no
0
10
0
0
10
0
0
10
0
25 75
50
25
62.
5
67
10
0
83
Type of decisions
Expand Variety Migratio diversifica
agricultu selection n
tion
re
yes no yes no yes no
yes no
0
10 0
10 67 33
67 33
0
0
67 33 67 33 0
100 0
100
Destocki
ng
Food aid
Drug
purchase
yes no
67 33
yes
33
No
67
yes
33
no
67
33
67
0
100
67
33
33
67
33
67
33
67
33
67
50
50
17
83
50
50
25
75
0
75
25
0
100
25
75
25
75
75
25
75
50
50
0
25
75
0
100
75
25
25
75
25
75
25
75
50
50
0
100
50
50
25
75
50
50
67
33
33
67
67
33
0
100
100
0
33
10
0
67
67
62.
5
10
0
33
0
0
37.
5
0
33
67
0
100
33
67
33
67
33
67
17
83
33
67
0
10
0
10
0
10
0
10
0
10
0
10
0
50
50
17
83
50
50
17
83
67
33
0
0
52
Table 17: Local businesses’ climate information requirement and proposed time of delivery
Weather/
Type of
How long in advance (in months)
Climate related
information
Hazards
needed
1
Drought
Extreme
-
2
3
3
2
4
5
-
-
6
2
Season
Tot
Perce
al
al
ntage
1
8
Drought
Rainfall
89
%
Rainfall
-
2
2
1
-
-
2
7
78%
-
1
1
-
-
-
-
2
22%
-
1
3
-
-
-
1
5
56%
Scarcity
Flood
Potential
flood
forecasts
and
warnings
Pest/ Disease
Impeding
Disease Warning/
Forecast
Wind Storm
Wind Strength
1
-
-
-
-
-
-
1
11%
Heat Stress
Extreme
1
-
-
-
-
-
1
2
22
Temperature
%
Table 18: Preferred dissemination Channels for climate information delivery
Dissemination Channel Preferred
No.
of
Business Percent from total
Organizations
businesses
identified
Printed Materials in local language
2
22%
Extension Agents
7
78%
53
Radio/ Tv in local language
Mobile
(calls,
texts)
in
local
4
45%
2
22%
language
Table 19: Accuracy of the NMA weather forecasts required for use in decision making
50%
count
Be of
some
use
Be very
useful
%
60%
count
70%
%
count
%
80%
count
%
90%
count
100%
%
2
22%
2
22%
3
33%
1
11%
1
11%
-
-
1
11%
-
-
1
11%
1
11%
5
56%
1
11%
54
Table 20 : Hazards ranked by Woreda Experts
Hazard type
Drought
Flood
Erratic rainfall
Disease and pest
Heat stress
Heavy rainfall
Conflict
Wind Erosion
1st
7
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
2nd
2
1
2
4
1
0
0
0
3rd
1
0
0
5
0
0
3
0
4th
0
4
0
1
2
0
2
1
5th
0
2
3
0
1
2
0
0
Total
10
9
5
10
4
2
5
1
Table 21: Experts preference of climate information dissemination mechanism
Preferred Dissemination Channel
Responses from Sectoral Experts
Counts of YES
Percent from total
Woredas in the
KII
Printed Materials
8
80 %
Recruited Meteorologist at Woreda Levels
4
40 %
Community Meetings
5
50 %
NGO's
2
20 %
Focal Person at Woreda Levels
3
30 %
Internet (e-mail)
2
20 %
Traditional Networking Systems
2
20 %
Climate Desk at Woreda Levels
3
30 %
Mobile phone (Calls, and Texting)
3
30%
Radio Communication
4
40 %
55
Table 22: Perception of higher officials toward traditional indicators of climate change
related hazards
Region
Woreda Hazards
Somalia Afdem
Drought
(
Rainfall
shortage)
rainfall
Drought
Afar
Awash
Fentale
Drought
Rainfall
Flood
Traditional
Indicators
Stars ( Shukri):
they use moon
and star to
predict
Hazards. If the
star is red
drought is
expected and
when a rising
sun is red good
season is
expected
if the rain is
small when it
starts it
indicates
rainfall
shortage
Starting day of
a new year :
details are not
known
Animal
behavior
Wind sniff:
wind brings the
smell of the
rain. Animals
even sneeze b/c
of the smell
Hayena sounds
and bird squeak
Cloud
condition
Stars
“Arefa” and
tree barks will
surf on the
56
Perception on
Accuracy
(100%)
0
Do bureaus consider
TI in DRR planning?
0
No
0
No
40
No
50
No
No
No
No
80
No
No
Oromia
Dire
drought
Conflict,
drought,
better
rainfall
Drought
surface of a
river . the river
smell earthly
and the color of
the river is
changed
Animal
55
behavior: very
reluctant to get
up; animals laid
in contracted
way not relaxed
Stars (urji):
don’t know the
detail
Animal
Intestine
(Wochu):
No
No
Shorten rain:
indicates longer
dry period
Table 23 : DPPB proxy indicators and tracking system for early warning Information
regio
n
wored
a
Awash
fentale
afdem
Hazar
d
paramete
r
weater
Key indicator
Who tracks
Rf
Temp
Humidity
wind
Early warning expert
psture
Shrub ( dryness)
Water points
Livestock body
conditionconditio
n
Market price
Migration
conflict
On set of rain
Rf coverage and
volume ( pond,
Weather
57
1. Cabbine (
every month)
2. Ewcomitte @
How
frequent
Every
week
telephone
, and
every
month
through
bireka)
Pasture
Livestoc
k
mareket
kebele level
(checklist to
be filled
based on
observation)
Greness
Species diversity
Depend on
rainfall
Physical body
condition
Productivity ( no
Umber of milk &
meat quality)
Health condition (
shining skin)
High price
High demand
Table 24: Government bureaus climate forecast information requirement and preferred
format of dissemination.
Region
Woreda Climate/weather
forecast
information
required
Somalia Afdem Drought
Pest and
Disease
Erratic rainfall
Afar
Awash Drought
Fentale
oromia
Dire
Pest and
Disease
Flood
Drought
How long in advance
the information is
required ?
3 months
2-3 months
Preferred Do bureaus
format of consider TI in
disseminat DRR planning?
ion
No
No
1-2 months
Karema and Segum ( 2 Internet,
months), Hagaye ( 1
display
month)
electronic
board (
ECXexperienc
e),
SMs
mobile
Pest ( 1 month),
disease ( 2 months)
1 month
3 months
Focal
person,
telecomm
58
No
No
No
No
No
unication,
letter
Flood
Pest and disease
Heat stress
2 months
3 months
1 month
59
No
No
No