Using landscape ecology to evaluate an alternative management scenario in abandoned Mediterranean mountain areas Teodoro Lasantaa*, José C. González-Hidalgob, Sergio M. Vicente-Serranoc, Emna Sferia Pirenaico de Ecología (CSIC). Apdo. 202. E-50080 – Zaragoza. Spain de Geografía. Universidad de Zaragoza. C/ Pedro Cerbuna 12. E-50009, Zaragoza, Spain. cCentre d'Etudes Spatiales de la Biosphère (CESBIO). 18 avenue. Edouard Belin, bpi 2801, 31401 Toulouse cedex 9, France * corresponding author. e-mail: fm@ipe.csic.es aInstituto bDepartamento Abstract The main characteristic of landscape evolution in the Pyrenees during the twentieth century is the increased presence of shrubs in old fields. Revegetation is mainly recorded on medium and low slopes because of land abandonment. The increase in shrubs causes the loss of grazing resources during winter, landscape homogenization and an increase in fire risk. The objective of this paper was to create a scenario for land use change by combining Geographical Information Systems (GIS) and Landscape Ecology Analysis (LEA). To improve the present seasonal imbalance in pastoral resources, the scenario proposes to convert shrubland areas to grasslands without an excessive increase in soil erosion or landscape fragmentation. The results obtained indicate that the strategy produces greater landscape diversity and an increase in annual pasture resources (16.7 %), which exceeds 60 % of total in winter. The effects of landscape fragmentation on biodiversity, fire risk control and the imbalance of pastures are discussed. The scenario would improve extensive livestock farming, which is the most important economic activity in this area and other Mediterranean mountains. Key words: Land use scenario, Land Management, Grazing resources, Mediterranean landscape, Pyrenees. 1. Introduction Mediterranean mountainous landscapes have a complex structure that is the result of traditional land management (Puigdefábregas and Fillat 1986; Grove and Rackham 2000). For centuries, man has exploited natural resources to a maximum in order to guarantee food for the population and a large number of animals. Land management was in the context of a self-sufficient economy in which exchanges with the outside world were scarce (ovine transhumance and few agricultural imports). This situation led to a highly humanised landscape with great ecological and cultural diversity (Crowling 1 et al. 1996; García-Ruiz and Valero 1998; Vos and Meekes 1999; Taillefumier and Piégay 2003). During the second half of the twentieth century, the mountainous areas in the Mediterranean were abandoned for agricultural productions and suffered high population emigration, abandonment, decrease in livestock and limited use of forested areas (Lasanta 1988; MacDonald et al. 2000; Metailié and Paegelow 2004). The cause of this marginalisation was the intensification of agricultural activity in flat areas, due to an increased productivity caused by mechanisation, use of chemical fertilisers and irrigation. The agricultural production in mountainous areas could not compete with that of lowlands. The production costs are higher in the former because of small plot sizes, highly divided property structure, shortage of flat lands and low soil fertility. Thus, the intensification of agricultural land use in one area caused marginalization in the mountain areas. In the mountain areas, these changes in land use during the last 50 years have led to extensive revegetation with increment of shrubs and forests, which has considerably simplified landscape structure (González-Bernáldez 1991; Poyatos et al. 2003; Torta 2004). This caused a homogenisation of the landscape, with a loss of flora and fauna (Ruiz and Ruiz 1989; Farina 1995 and 1997; Preiss et al. 1997; Caraveli 2000; Olson et al. 2000; Kozak 2003; Laiolo et al. 2004). In addition, the increase in shrubs has caused a decrease in grazing resources, which are crucial for the maintenance of the livestock. In the Pyrenees, the shortage of these resources during winter is, at present, the main problem for livestock development. Consequently, new land use scenarios are required to revitalise the economy and to maintain the landscape diversity. 2 Geographical Information Systems (GIS) and Landscape Ecology Analysis (LEA) provide one of the most powerful analytical methods for creating a spatial and temporal analysis framework. There are numerous examples of the use of this approach (GISLEA) for species conservation (Nikolakaki 2004), biological diversity and landscape structure (Papadimitrou 2002), land use cover evolution and its effects on landscape structure (Hietala-Koivu 1999; Nagendra and Utkarsh 2003; Southworth et al. 2004) and landscape planning and management (Geoghegan et al. 1997). Also it could be an useful approach for creating future scenarios for environmental planning and landscape management (see the example of Herzog and Lausch 2001, and the review of Nagendra et al. 2004), particularly in areas where human pressure is intensifying or where rural exodus from the mid twentieth century has allowed revegetation through natural processes. The Mediterranean mountainous areas of Europe provide such an example, with some areas abandoned during the twentieth century, and other areas still at present subjected to human pressure. Nevertheless, these mountain lands are human-dominated landscapes, where true natural habitats are scarce, and where species and natural landscape functions could be preserved in a network of patches that not only allowed sustained biological diversity, but also natural and socio-economic functions (Verboom et al. 2001). Here we combine GIS-LEA to propose an alternative land use scenario adapted to the Mediterranean mountains of Spain: the Central Pyrenees. We analysed the feasibility of the proposed scenario to increase grassland areas and avoid landscape degradation. Therefore, we searched for shrubland areas (mainly old abandoned field) with favourable topographical conditions, which could be converted to grasslands without risk of increasing erosion. Besides, the reduction of shrub land could contribute to diminish fire risk. This type of analysis is highly relevant since one of the current 3 problems faced by extensive livestock farming in the Pyrenees is the shortage of grasslands during winter (García-Ruiz and Lasanta 1990); a problem that was traditionally solved by transhumance to flat areas located between 150 and 200 km from the Pyrenees (Puigdefábregas and Fillat 1986). 2. The study area The area selected was the basin of the Aragón Subordán river (Spanish Central Pyrenees), an area of 307.7 km2, with three valleys of N-S direction (Figure 1). In 1900 this area registered a population of 3626 inhabitants, in 1950 2537 and by 2001 the population had dropped to 1249, distributed in 6 towns, resulting in a population density of only 4.96 inhab/km2. Two relief units can be identified (Sierras Interiores and Flysch areas). The first, which is of calcareous and gritty calcareous soil, shows the highest elevations: Bisaurín (2668 m), Castillo de Acher (2390 m), Mesa de los Tres Reyes (2434 m), covered by pastures. The Flysch area is located immediately to the south, with rolling hillsides, slopes between 20 and 40%, and altitudes from 600 to 2000 m a.s.l. (Lorente et al. 2002). It is here that we find the main areas of forests and vast extensions of shrubs, which cover old fields. The cultivated areas are now located in the valley bottoms. The dominant climate has Atlantic influences with frequent snowfalls in winter, although the lowest hillsides show sub-Mediterranean climatic characteristics (López Moreno and García-Ruiz 2004). At the observatory of Hecho (860 m), the mean annual precipitation is 1227 mm and the temperature 10.3 ºC. Autumn and summer register the highest and lowest precipitation, respectively. Only during July, there is a negative water balance in the southern areas of the basin. Frost occurs from October to June in 4 the high elevated areas and between November and May in the southern sectors (Del Barrio et al. 1990). The study area was traditionally exploited by extensive grazing, which used the pastures above the timberline during summer. During winter, the livestock was taken to the centre of the Ebro valley, a flat area of semi-arid characteristics, located between 150 and 200 km from the Pyrenees, where the sheep grazed on the steppes, fallows and cereal fields (García-Ruiz and Lasanta, 1993). The local statistics indicate that in the early twenty century the livestock comprised 47345 sheep and 1450 head of cattle. In 1961, these figures had fallen to 20674 and 1373, respectively. In 2004, livestock farming comprised 1237 sheep and 1878 head of cattle. The dramatic decrease in the number of sheep was a result of the crisis in the transhumance system (Balcells 1986). During the first decades of the twentieth century the valley bottoms and the low hillsides were cultivated with cereals. The agricultural areas covered 7025 ha., but between 1940 and 1981 5546 ha. (78.9% of the original total) were abandoned. The remaining lands were cultivated for cereals and grasslands (García-Ruiz and Lasanta 1990). The abandonment of agricultural lands and the low livestock pressure caused a significant increase in shrubs, mainly on low hillsides, where Genista scorpius covers most of the abandoned fields and creates a highly homogeneous landscape (Lasanta et al. 2005), which is at great risk of fire (Valderrábano and Torrano 2000). 3. Methods 3.1. Land cover mapping Considering that land cover pattern can be used as proxy data for landscape analysis, the complexity of landscape is determined by the number of patches, their 5 characteristics, size and shape. Their connectivity and structural landscape complexity should then be measured from land cover maps (Papadimitrou 2002). Land cover was mapped using Landsat images (Smiatek 1995; Honnay et al. 2003; Sommer et al. 1998). The vegetation in the Hecho valley has large spatial and temporal variability because of the wide diversity of land cover. Seasonal differences between vegetation types are considerable. For this reason, variations in the spectral response of vegetation cover are crucial for determining the distinct classes of vegetation cover. Therefore, three images taken in distinct seasons were used to avoid errors in classification caused by differences in the phenological cycles (Dennison and Roberts 2003; Serra et al. 2003). Two Landsat 5-TM images (August of 1991 and June of 1993) and one Landsat 7ETM+ image (October of 1999) were used. Although it is recommendable to use images from the same year, the frequent cloud cover made it necessary to use images from different years. However, the use of distinct years does not affect the land cover classification in the study area. In the Hecho valley, extensive landscape transformations were recorded in the twentieth century, but in the last 15 years human activities have been scarce and the main process has been natural revegetation and succession in old fields, in which the advance of vegetation is slow. In the study area, more than 50 years are required for complete substitution of shrubs by forests (Molinillo et al. 1997). Consequently, the eight year difference between the satellite images used in this study is not enough to record significant changes in the vegetation cover that may alter the classification. The images were geometrically corrected using control points and a digital elevation model (30 meters of resolution) following the method described by Palá and Pons (1995). The digital elevation model was developed by interpolating elevation 6 isolines (1:50000) obtained from the National Geographic Institute (Spain) at a spatial resolution of 30 meters. The use of the elevation model minimises geometric errors. The Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) was less than 30 meters in each image (RMSE = 18.7, RMSE = 20.9 and RMSE = 18.3 for the images of 1991, 1993 and 1999, respectively). The radiometric disturbances caused by atmosphere and relief especially affect mountainous areas (Riaño et al. 2003). Therefore, the images were corrected following the method of Gilabert et al. (1994) and the radiative model of Bird and Riordan (1986), modified for mountainous areas by Beguería (2003). Classified distinct land cover classes on the basis of the vegetation of the valley: coniferous forests, leafy forests, pastures above timberline, meadows, mixed forests, bare rock and alpine pastures, shrublands, bare soil, urban areas, rivers, and fluvial bars. Using field-work, we identified several areas that were representative of each of the land cover classes selected. Land cover classification was obtained using the spectral bands of the three images, with a hybrid method that combines the ISODATA and CLSMIX modules of MiraMon software (view details in Serra et al. 2003). After automatic classification, we identified three conflictive assignations: i) between bare rock and bare soil, ii) non-irrigated grasslands and pastures above the timberline and iii) between shrubs and non-irrigated grasslands. The two first assignations were solved using topographic criteria. Above 1600 m, bare soil was reclassified as bare rock and alpine pastures. Below this altitude, the pixels classified as bare rock were classified as bare soil. A similar criterion was used to differentiate between pastures above the timberline (> 1500 m) and grasslands (< 1500 m). The main difficulty was to discriminate between some grassland and shrub areas because of similar spectral characteristics between them. In this case, the altitudinal range of both land use classes 7 coincided. Therefore, we used present-day aerial photographs (1998) to map the grasslands. The spatial scale of the aerial photographs is very detailed (1:5.000) and the geometric quality good (MAPA, 1998). Photographs were interpreted visually and grassland areas were digitized manually. The other grasslands pixels obtained in the classification of Landsat images were assigned to shrubs. Finally, we checked the validity of the final land cover map by comparing the land cover type recorded randomly at 150 points by field-work with the cover obtained by means of supervised land cover classification. For this purpose, we used a confusion matrix (Chuvieco 2003). The comparison between the classification obtained from remote sensing and the points collected in the field is shown in Table 1, which indicates the high reliability of the final classification obtained (79.8%). 3.2. Development of scenario The land cover map was useful to identify marginal areas where action could be taken to improve livestock management. These areas include abandoned agricultural lands that are now covered by shrubs or have sparse vegetation cover and are located on low hillsides. Highly productive grasslands can be obtained by shrub clearance given that, under shrubs, these lands have a very dense herbaceous cover composed of gramineae and leguminous plants, which are of great interest for extensive livestock raising (Molinillo et al. 1997). The main problem for the development of an alternative land cover scenario was to select those shrubland and bare areas that could be converted to grasses and those which were more suitable for revegetation. For this purpose, we combined several environmental, landscape and economic criteria. 8 A first priority was not to increase soil erosion, as soil is a very scarce and unstable resource in the Pyrenees (García-Ruiz et al. 2005). Ruiz Flaño et al. (1992) show the significant roles that slope and human management have on triggering different erosion processes with variable erosion rates. We therefore decided to make the change on slopes under 35 %. The slope threshold of 35% was selected on the basis of the information from the “Experimental Station Valle de Aísa” (ESVA- see location in Figure 1), where hydrological behaviour and soil erosion in several land covers is studied (García-Ruiz et al. 1995). The ESVA is located at 1150 m a.s.l., 5 km from the study area, on a hillside with a slope of 35 %. The area was cultivated with cereal crops until the 1960s. After abandonment, the land was colonised by shrubs of Genista scorpius and Rosa sp. In 1991, it was converted to nine land uses, including dense shrub and grassland. Each plot had an automatic system to measure continuously runoff and sediment transport. Between 1992 and 2003, the average runoff coefficient was 4.5% for the shrub plot and 6.8% for the grassland. In the same period, the annual rates of soil erosion were 10.9 gm-2 and 15.9 gm-2, respectively. The erosion on these land covers was inferior to that recorded for fallow (93.2 gm-2) and shifting agriculture (137 gm-2) (García-Ruiz et al. 2004). The substitution of shrubs for grasslands causes a limited increase in soil erosion that can be considered acceptable if the change improves forage production and landscape structure. A second criterion was chosen to avoid excessive dispersion of the new grasslands, which could produce excessive landscape fragmentation with negative environmental effects (Jongman 2002). In our strategy, new grassland patches with a surface less than 1 ha were removed. Also, this measure facilitates access of livestock to the new grassland. 9 3.3. Landscape analysis Analyses of the present landscape and under scenario were performed using the FRAGSTAT v2 environment. We used the Number of Patches (NP), Patch Density (PD), Largest Patch Index (LPI), and Mean Patch Size (AREA) as patch area metrics. To quantify the occurrence of ecotones, we have calculated Total Edges (TE) and Edge Density (ED). The NP, LPI, and AREA correspond to metric area and together with PD, ED and TE provide indications of the degree of fragmentation. The LPI provides the area of the largest patch in each class (or landscape) expressed as a percentage of total landscape area. The NP is a measure of fragmentation of a given class within a landscape since the landscape size is constant (Southworth et al. 2004), as in our study. Landscape configuration metrics were evaluated by the Interspersion and Juxtaposition Index (IJI). As a global estimator of landscape structure, we calculated Shanon’s (SDI) diversity index (see Geoghegan et al. 1997; Nagendra 2002; Herzog and Lausch 2001). Finally, the Cohesion index (CO) was applied to verify isolation. Details of calculus, formulae and justification can be found in numerous references (Geoghegan et al. 1997; Chust et al. 2004; Verboom et al. 2001; Cook 2002; Southworth et al. 2004; Hietala-Koivu 1999; Honnay et al. 2003; Bogaert et al. 2000; Herzog and Lausch 2001), and in web of FRAGSTAT (http://www.umass.edu/landeco/research/fragstats/documents/, date 6/01/2005). 3.4. Evaluation of grazing resources To evaluate the differences in grazing resources between the present land cover and the one proposed in our strategy, we used the values on forage productivity in each land cover. These data were obtained from different studies on this topic carried out in the study area (García-González et al. 1990; Molinillo et al. 1997; Aldezábal et al. 1998; 10 Marinas et al. 2003). Table 2 summarizes the annual productivity of each land cover (Mj/ha/year) and the percentage of productivity during each season. During summer, the total productivity is located on the alpine and subalpine pastures whilst in winter it is concentrated on grassland areas. In spring and autumn, the grasslands, shrubs and some woodlands are the main source of livestock grazing. 4. Results 4.1. Present land cover distribution and distribution in the proposed scenario Figure 2 and Table 3 show the total surface and spatial distribution of the present land cover and that in the proposed scenario. The area covered by grassland is also shown. Forests currently predominate (62.1% of the total surface), and are mainly coniferous (29.1%). The pastures above the timberline and the alpine pastures used for livestock feeding during the summer also cover a large percentage of surface (20.4%) Shrubs cover 12.7% of the valley, and are located on agricultural lands that were abandoned during the twentieth century (Lasanta 1988; García-Ruiz and Lasanta 1990), whilst the meadows (used for livestock feeding during the winter and spring) account only for 3.2% of total surface. The present land use scheme causes a significant imbalance in forage availability between warm and cold seasons. Topography determines the land cover distribution. Bare rock and alpine pastures are located at mean altitudes of 2060 and 1850 m a.s.l., respectively. Forests are located on average at between 1100 and 1200 meters. Meadows are found in the valley bottoms at around 885 m, and the shrubs and soils with sparse vegetation are at between 900 and 950 m on average. Topography defines shrub distribution. This vegetation cover appears in the south of the study area, on the lowest slopes. In these areas the climate is dry and the 11 succession of vegetation types is very slow after abandonment. Abandonment at greater altitude has originated forests during the same period of time (Vicente-Serrano et al. 2005) because of more humid conditions. In the proposed land cover scenario, land cover modifications are rare because the scenario only affects shrubs, grasslands and areas with little vegetation. At present, 982.5 ha are occupied by meadows. In our scenario, meadow cover reaches 2044.3 ha, and the most marked changes are located in the southern areas, where shrubs cover a high percentage of the area, thereby generating a landscape of low diversity. 4.2. Landscape analysis On a global scale (landscape analysis), the main difference between the present state and our scenario is the increase in landscape fragmentation (Table 4). The number of new patches increases by 419 in the scenario. This controlled fragmentation produces a reduction in the average area of patches (from 4.4 to 4.1), an increase in patch density and also in edge length. The scenario does not modify the overall landscape diversity in the valley, or cohesion, although the IJI index increases, which indicates a higher level of diversity in the contact between patches. A more detailed analysis at land cover level is shown in Table 5. The landscape scenario is dominated by fragmentation, although this differs depending on the land cover type. In shrublands, the increase is caused by the fragmentation of present patches, while in meadows it is produced by the development of new patches. In shrubs, the scenario increases over the number of present patches by 38% (2.4 PD versus 3.3 PD), and the number of patches in meadows by 78% (0.6 PD versus 1.0). Moreover, the shrub patches with the largest area are highly fragmented and reduce the LPI, while in grasslands the scenario produces a small increment. This observation indicates that the 12 scenario does not homogenize the landscape but increase diversity. In general, the average area of shrub patch decreases and grassland cover increase. As a result of controlled landscape fragmentation, the length of the edges in these two land cover types is modified. The results show a remarkable increase in edge density in the grasslands and a minimal increment in shrubland areas. Finally, the spatial structure of the two land cover types also changes (IJI and CO). Cohesion decreases more intensely in shrubland areas, while the diversity of contacts (IJI) increases slightly in the shrubs and decreases in grassland. Shrublands and meadows show a predominance of patches of less than 2 ha (77.5% in shrublands and 79.2% in meadows) (Table 6). In the former, the transformation affects original patches of distinct sizes. In grasslands the changes are more significant and an increase in the number of patches over 1 ha is observed. At present, there are 112 patches of less 1 ha, and in the scenario the number decreases to 82. The most spectacular increment is recorded in the number of patches between 1-2 ha (25 at present, and 94 in scenario). Thus, our scenario is characterized by controlled landscape fragmentation caused by transformation of shrublands to meadows. 4.3. Comparison of the grazing resources between the present state and the scenario The comparative analysis of grazing resources between the present state and our scenario indicates an annual increase of 16.7% %, from 18486.2 x 103 Mj/year to 21538.6 x 103 Mj/year (Figure 3). However, more important than the annual increase is the seasonal distribution of these resources (Figure 4). Changes occur during winter, the season in which grazing resources are scarce and limit the maintenance of livestock. During this season, the grazing resources in the strategy are doubled. 13 5. Discussion and conclusions Extensive livestock production could provide a basic agricultural activity which could reactivate the economy of marginal mountainous areas such as the Pyrenees and, in general, all mountainous areas in the Mediterranean. These areas comprise large zones covered by communal pastures, which have been used for centuries for extensive livestock grazing, thereby creating highly diverse landscapes. These landscapes can only be maintained by the permanent presence of extensive livestock (Ruiz and Ruiz 1984; Baudry 1991; Canals and Sebastià 2000; Magda and Gonnet 2001). Nevertheless, during the twentieth century, livestock farming in the Pyrenean valleys decreased between 60-70 % as a consequence of the crisis in the transhumance system (Manrique et al. 1996) and also because of the scarce grazing resources during winter. According to Molinillo et al. (1997), the grazing resources in summer are three times greater than in winter. The seasonal imbalance of pastures is due to the wide extension of shrubs on low and medium slopes, which extended across abandoned fields during the twentieth century (Lasanta et al. 2005). As a consequence, such landscapes in the Pyrenees mountain are endangered if no management practices are implemented. After abandonment shrubs cover has increased fire risk and decreasing livestock resources. Here we describe how shrubland areas can be converted to grasslands by means of clearing vegetation, a measure that has shown good results in other Mediterranean areas (Stagliano et al. 1999; Lécrivain and Beylier 2004; Etienne and Rigolot 2004; Delgado et al. 2004). Our scenario would increase the annual availability of grazing resources by 16.7 %, mainly during the winter. This increase would reduce the current imbalance in forage availability between warm and cold seasons, thereby favouring the development of larger livestock exploitations that are more profitable and 14 have more guarantee of continuity (Manrique et al. 1999). Moreover, the increase in livestock would allow a better use of summer pastures, which are currently suffering intense degradation because of low livestock pressure, which in turn, causes the advance of shrubs and forests (Camarero and Gutiérrez 2002) and the loss of forage. Among the negative effects of our scenario is a possible increase in soil erosion rates. Nevertheless, the results obtained from the experimental plots in the Aisa valley allow us to conclude that the substitution of shrubs for grasslands in areas of less than 35% slope does not significantly increase erosion rates because a dense herbaceous cover is enough to control soil erosion. Ruiz Flaño et al. (1992), García-Ruiz et al. (1995, 1996 and 2005) have investigated in detail erosion processes in abandoned fields and the influence of land use changes in hydrological dynamics and erosion rates These studies demonstrate that a dense grass cover slows down aggressive erosion processes. Our scenario also considers the changes in the landscape structure and causes a higher fragmentation of land cover. Fragmentation usually is associated with negative effects on movement and persistence of organisms, and the redistributing matter and nutrients (Turner 1989). Furthermore, fragmentation may have socio-economic consequences because the increase in diversity as a result of fragmentation can result in more edges between potential conflicting habitats and hence in opportunities for external elements to affect neighbours in a positive or negative way. Land use returns and incentives can also be affected by new spatial arrangements (Nagendra et al. 2004). Under human pressure, landscape is usually fragmented, and then not only habitat heterogeneity but also isolation between suitable habitats and the shape of the habitat patch determines biological diversity and species viability (Honnay et al. 2003; Nikolakaki 2004). 15 Nevertheless, the effects of fragmentation can be observed from another point of view. Agricultural abandonment in several mountainous Mediterranean areas has caused the colonisation of old fields by highly inflammable species, which represent an increased risk of fire (Papio and Trabaud 1991; Moreira et al. 2001; Romero and Perry 2004) and may have considerable implications for geomorphic and hydrological processes (Kutiel et al. 1995; Cerdà 1998; Inbar et al. 1998; Moody et al. 2001). Vicente-Serrano et al. (2000) indicated that in the Borau valley, between 1957 and 2000, fire risk increased in 27.1% of the total area because of agricultural abandonment and lack of livestock pasturage. Management practices to reduce fire risk centre on causing controlled fires (which is at present widely criticised), or reducing the spatial continuity of shrub patches to mitigate fire propagation risk. In this case, the fragmentation of shrubs, as in our scenario, could help to control fire risk in the area In relation to the feasibility of the land cover modifications proposed, in nearby areas such as the Pre-Pyrenees (20 km from the study area), the practice of clearing vegetation has been applied for 30 years. Also, in the Iberian System (200 km to the South of the study area), a mountainous area of similar characteristics to those of the study area, the Regional Government has applied a policy of clearing the vegetation in shrubland areas for livestock use for the last 10 years. In both cases, the results are positive because of the increase in grazing resources and the decrease in fire risk. Given that overall land management practices aim to combine the conservation of resources and economic development, the conservation of shrubland areas is highly debatable because this land cover causes landscape homogenisation and increased fire risk (Lasanta et al. 2005). The Pyrenees have a lack large pasturage during winter and spring. This deficit has risen over the last twenty years because of the increase in tourist urbanisation of grasslands (Laguna and Lasanta 2003). Consequently, it is more logical 16 to selectively clear the slopes covered by shrubs to improve landscape structure, reduce the risk of forest fires and increase forage to maintain more livestock. 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Trends in European cultural landscape development: perspectives for a sustainable future. Landscape and Urban Planning 46, 3-14. Table 1: Confusion matrix. Vertical: field observations, Horizontal: obtained from remote sensing classification. 1: Coniferous forests, 2: Leafy forests, 3: Pastures above timberline, 4: Meadows, 5: Mixed forests, 6: Bare rock and alpine pastures, 7: Shrublands, 8: Bare soil, 9: Urban areas, 10: Rivers, 11: Fluvial bars Table 2: Pasture production in land covers (Mj/ha/año) and its seasonal distribution in the Hecho valley. Table 3: Area of various land use categories for present and proposed scenario Table 4: Landscape index: Present situations and proposed scenario Table 5: Changes in shrub and meadow indices by land cover type Table 6: Patch size distribution for present situation and proposed scenario. Total number and %. Figure 1: Location and topography of the study area. Figure 2: Present land use (1) and proposed land use scenario (2). Images 3 and 4 show the grassland areas in their present state (3) and in the proposed scenario (4). Figure 3: Spatial distribution of pastoral production (Mj/Year) Field observations Figure 4: Seasonal differences in present pastoral resources and in the proposed scenario. Obtained by image classification 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Omission error (%) 1 35 5 3 2 22 1 1 5 3 3 16 4 1 3 5 4 15 6 1 9 1 18.6 24.1 15.8 25.0 21.1 18.2 Commission Mapping error (%) accuracy (%) 4.7 77.8 31.0 57.9 26.3 66.7 25.0 60.0 42.1 55.6 0.0 81.8 25 7 8 9 10 11 2 1 14 1 1 22.2 5.6 73.7 0.0 0.0 100.0 Table 1. 26 Land cover Coniferous forests Leafy forests Pastures above timberline Meadows Mj/Ha/ Año 0 0 13766 32700 Mixed forests Bare rock and alpine pastures Shrublands Bare soil Urban areas 16133 6727 4201 0 0 Winter (%) 0 43.3 Spring (%) 0 12 25. 3 11 19 35 Summer (%) 78 0 60 100 22 Fall (%) 10 31. 4 29 24 Table 2. 27 Land uses Coniferous forests Present state Scenario proposed 8957.2 8957.2 (29.1%) (29.1%) Leafy forests 6047.4 6047.4 (19.7%) (19.7%) Pastures above timberline 3979.5 3979.5 (12.9%) (12.9%) Meadows 982.5 (3.2%) 2044.3 (6.6%) Mixed forests 4091 (13.3%) 4091 (13.3%) Bare rock and alpine pastures 2308.3 (7.5%) 2308.3 (7.5%) Shrublands 3909.4 2910.7 (9.4%) (12.7%) Bare soil 118.1 (0.4%) 54.99 (0.2%) Urban areas 43.4 (0.1%) 43.4 (0.1%) Rivers 313.8 (1.0%) 313.8 (1.0%) Fluvial bars 17.2 (0.1%) 17.2 (0.1%) Total 30767.9 30767.9 (100%) (100%) Table 3. 28 Area Edge Diversity Configuration Patch Number Patch Density Mean area (Patch) Total Edges Edges Density Shannon Index Interspersion and Justaposition Index Cohesion Current Scenario NP 7000 7419 PD 22.7 24.1 AREA (ha) 4.4 4.1 TE (km) 3489 3651 2 ED (km/km ) 113.4 118.7 SDI 1.859 1.881 IJI CO 58.906 97.510 61.33 97.31 Table 4. 29 Shrublands Area Edges Configuratio n Index Current Scenario NP PD LPI AREA_M N 733 2.4 2.1 1017 3.3 0.4 5.3 2.8 TE 894.3 910.0 ED 29.1 IJI CO Meadows Curre Scenario nt 173 309 0.6 1.0 0.8 0.9 5.7 6.6 29.6 189. 0 6.1 16.6 58.3 61.4 73.1 68.8 96.4 92.5 96.1 95.0 513 Table 5. 30 Shrubs Present Scenario Present (%) Scenario (%) Meadows Present Scenario Present (%) Scenario (%) Area Patches 3909.4 733 2910.7 1017 Area 982.5 2044.3 Patches 173 309 <1ha 455 670 62.1 65.9 <1ha 112 82 64.7 26.5 1-2 113 136 15.4 13.4 1-2 25 94 14.5 30.4 2-3 37 58 5.0 5.7 2-3 12 37 6.9 12 3-4 29 38 4.0 3.7 3-4 3 25 1.7 8.1 4-5 18 20 2.5 2.0 4-5 2 12 1.2 3.9 5-10 10-25 >25 34 22 25 41 31 23 4.6 3.0 3.4 4.0 3.0 2.3 5-10 10-25 >25 9 3 7 29 19 11 5.2 1.7 4.0 9.4 6.1 3.6 Table 6. 31 Figure 1. 32 Figure 2. 33 1 2 Figure 3. 3 35 1200 1000 PRESENT STATE PROPOSED SCENARIO MJ (x 103) 800 600 400 200 0 1 2 3 winter spring summer fall Figure 4. 36