The future of transgenic plants in developing countries Alain Weil In Cellular and Molecular Biology (vol. 47/n°8 December 2001) Abstract – Whatever their own policies may be, developing countries will inevitably be affected by the development of genetically-modified organisms in industrialized countries. While maintaining a cautious attitude, most of these countries wish to keep their options open, thus protecting themselves from the risk of being deprived of future technologies that might allow them to achieve self-sufficiency in food production, to resolve certain problems confronting their most vulnerable populations and to preserve the international competitiveness of their products. Companies should see that it is in their interest to help these countries implement their own policies, notably through an open attitude to industrial property. If the value of genetic engineering is thus confirmed, then it perhaps in this manner that GMOs will earn the legitimacy required to make them acceptable to the people of Northern countries where the majority of solvent markets are located. Key words: Biotechnologies, GMO, transgenic plants, developing countries, patents, intellectual property INTRODUCTION From the outset, developing countries have been involved in the debate over the use of geneticallymodified organisms. When the issue first emerged, large firms placed them in the media spotlight through irrelevant press campaigns aiming to gain acceptance for their products, developed primarily for the agroindustrial sector, by highlighting their potential benefits for the poor consumers of the South. Protests by militant organizations denounced the use of social solidarity as a sales argument, and revealed the inadequacy of the resources deployed to put such solidarity into effect. This reinforced the feeling of mistrust towards developments whose true interest was far from clear in the eyes of society. Before the debate grew in size, the countries concerned had already perceived, during the negotiation of the Rio Convention on Biological Diversity, that the progress of DNA-recombination techniques would provide them with the potential to develop, both financially and technically, their capital in genetic resources which, until then, had been literally invaluable. Genetic resources, considered previously as a “common heritage of mankind” in international agreements ratified under the auspices of the FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization) then became, in a somewhat contradictory manner, sovereign property of the countries which held them. The desire to make optimum use of biodiversity – whose value for industry is often overestimated by the countries where it is located – and the fear that unfair trade would give them only a fraction of the profit generated by its industrial use, have made these nations reluctant to share their resources. As a result, the international circulation of genetic resources, until now the source of all work on the improvement of cultivated species, is now seriously compromised. It is this same attitude of mistrust in the face of uncertainty, coupled with the fear of irreversible consequences, that explains the attitude adopted by developing countries during the negotiation of the international protocol on bio-security adopted in Montreal in early 2000. With the help of Europe, which has played the role of a mediator between two opposing camps, developing countries jointly succeeded in obtaining recognition for the right of countries to exercise greater control over the import and the dissemination of genetically-modified organisms. It was thus generally agreed that the circulation of genetically engineered products should not be governed solely by the rules of international trade, thereby opening the door to future conflict about the limits of jurisdiction and the power of arbitration by the World Trade Organization. Corporate claims regarding the importance of biotechnologies for world food production have been taken seriously by the designated beneficiaries. One of the consequences has been a strengthening of civil movements opposing two major trends of the world economy: firstly, the concentration of technical innovation and economic power in the hands of a small number of players in areas as crucial as health and nutrition – key fields for the application of biotechnologies – and secondly, the extended scope of protection offered to inventors through the international system of intellectual property. The granting of biotechnology 1 patents is now confronted with a problem of legitimacy, in the sense that the Patent Offices have shifted the previous balance between the remuneration of the inventor's efforts (by an operating monopoly limited in time, intended to promote innovation) and the benefits for society (the publication of results to permit continuous technical development) in a direction which is frequently deemed to unfairly favour one of the parties involved. As is the case in pharmaceuticals, and with an evident overlap linked to the use of similar techniques to satisfy equally fundamental human needs, patents in plant biotechnology are accused of favouring abuse of power and their existence is criticized in the name of the general interest. They are also accused of holding back the progress of knowledge, of hindering innovation in directions which are not profitable for private investors, and of allowing prices to be fixed at prohibitive levels which deprive the poorest populations of the benefits of their applications. The successful battle by South Africa, Brazil and India to convince pharmaceutical firms to allow them to produce less costly drugs for combating AIDS gives a foretaste of what will happen tomorrow in the sector of plant biotechnologies if they live up to their promise with regard to food security. At several major international negotiations conducted in recent years, the use of GMOs in developing countries has proved to be at the crossroads of many different concerns expressed by governments and civil society. Sometimes serving as a link between battles engaged on a variety of fronts, this theme has become emblematic of issues as varied as the trade imbalance between North and South, environmental protection, failures in the fight against under-development, the growing technology gap between groups of countries, genetic resources, dependence on multinational firms, reform of the world system of intellectual property, and national sovereignty! CAN PLANT BIOTECHNOLOGIES CONTRIBUTE TO FOOD SECURITY IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES? According to the FAO, undernutrition and malnutrition currently affect some 800 million people in the world. This is the consequence of a situation which obviously has many causes other than a simple incapacity to produce sufficient quantities of food to feed the planet. Wide-ranging social, political, and economic factors lie at the root of under-development, while technical insufficiencies play only a secondary role. Yet it would be totally unrealistic to imagine theoretical schemes of world food production and distribution that do not take account of real constraints that will continue to affect our planet for many years to come. Moreover, it would be economically, politically, and morally unacceptable to make entire regions dependent upon agricultural surpluses exported from rich countries, for several reasons. Firstly, now that we are witnessing the downside of intensive agriculture, it is clear that these surpluses will not continue increasing indefinitely. Secondly, it has been clearly demonstrated that regular food imports at low prices have often had a destructive effect on local production capacity. Finally, no single government can tolerate a permanent threat of destabilization linked to the “weapon of hunger.” In the future, the intercontinental food trade will play only a minor role in the consumption of different zones, around 10% at most, according to the specialists (14). Demographers, however, unanimously agree that the world’s population will increase from 6 to about 9 billion inhabitants during the next 50 years, and that 95% of this increase will be concentrated in developing countries (19). To improve the quantity and quality of the food required to meet existing unsatisfied needs, and to address the demand of rising populations – not to mention the new needs linked to growing urbanization and higher incomes – then overall food production in Southern countries must be at least doubled over the next thirty years. There are two ways to reach this objective: through an increase in production by unit area, and through the mobilization of new land for agriculture. On the basis of existing techniques, intensification will lead to environmental problems which richer countries have already encountered. They are aggravated by the greater ecological fragility of the natural environment, characterized by its rapid degradation and decreasing soil fertility, a trend already observed in many places. It is likely that the quantitative progress which could be obtained theoretically through techniques already used by Northern countries would not guarantee sustainable production in either ecological or economic terms, though they might offer a temporary solution. Moreover, 2 as was the case for the first “green revolution1”, the desire to raise productivity through the massive use of high-yield plant varieties, fertilizers, pesticides and irrigation, would probably lead to increased marginalization of small producers lacking financial resources, or whose land is less suitable for industrialized agriculture. On the other hand, if extensive agriculture based on existing techniques were to become the dominant mode of production, it would result in the acceleration of deforestation, a process that the international community is precisely seeking to limit in order to preserve biological resources and to combat climate change. There is thus an undisputable need to discover radically new modes of production capable of reconciling increased productivity with the preservation of ecological balances, economic efficacy and social acceptability. The whole range of available solutions will necessarily be brought into play to achieve this indispensable increase in agricultural production: choice of crops and crop rotation, cultivation techniques, fertilizers, pesticides, biological pest control, variety selection, irrigation, and so on. These techniques must now be judiciously combined into new technical itineraries adapted to each specific context. It is likely, however, that gradual improvements will not be sufficient and that technical breakthroughs will also be necessary. Genetic engineering offers one such breakthrough. WHICH AGRICULTURAL APPLICATIONS MIGHT BE SPECIFICALLY USEFUL FOR DEVELOPING COUNTRIES? For obvious reasons, the first uses of genetically-modified organisms by developing countries were copied exactly from applications developed by Northern countries. The first among them, and the least controversial, concerns the acquisition of knowledge. The genomes of growing numbers of tropical plants –coffee, cocoa, banana, sorghum– have been mapped, then partially sequenced. Analyses are now under way, using the creation of genetically modified “mutant” plants to characterise gene function more easily. These investigations go beyond marginal development-oriented research thanks to the peculiar status of rice, which is both the main staple food of tropical countries and the model plant for studying the genome of most cultivated cereals. Though the rice genome has mobilized internationally important public and private research resources because of its extrapolation potential for the study of wheat and maize, the knowledge thus acquired is also available for application to other tropical graminaceae such as millet, sorghum, and sugar cane, for example. The management of genetic resource collections and marker-assisted selection will benefit directly from these efforts. It is the large-scale production of genetically-modified organisms that is the focus of public debate. The large agro-industrial estates of the South see the use of plants that are resistant to herbicides or to predators as having the same advantages as their counterparts in temperate climates, and the solutions obtained in the temperate climates are relatively easy to transpose to tropical crops. Over the longer term, transgenesis could be used to address agricultural problems which are difficult to resolve in any other way, such as resistance to viruses (20) or nematodes (2), and for which promising results on tropical plants have already been obtained by several research teams. Moreover, at an even later date, we could even look for ways to develop plant tolerance towards abiotic stresses such as cold, heat, drought and salinity. The methods of transgenesis could be used to solve, at least partially, certain problems specific to developing countries, with a view to enhancing the security – in quantitative terms – and the safety – in qualitative terms – of food production. Vast tracts of land are currently unsuitable for cultivation because the soil is too acid or alkaline, too rich in salt or in toxic aluminium compounds. It is not unrealistic to hope that some of this land will become fit for use one day , or that water and fertilizers will be used more efficiently (11,17). The smallest and most vulnerable producers could, in theory, become the main beneficiaries, The “green revolution” is the name given to the progress in productivity brought about by the creation of highyield wheat and rice varieties in the 1960s. Most notably, it enabled Asian countries that were structural food importers to become self-sufficient exporters. However, it has also been criticized for some of its social consequences 1 3 particularly those who cultivate marginal zones with limited financial resources and rudimentary knowledge of “modern” agricultural techniques. The adaptation of plant varieties to different soil conditions will sometimes make it possible to grow new crops in previously uncultivated zones. The primary advantage, however, would be to create more hardy plants which would limit the farmer’s risk of losing his crop due to exceptional weather (a delay in the arrival of the rainy season) or disease. The problem of crop protection is posed in a very particular light when the question is no longer simply that of choosing between different types of pest control on the basis of economic or ecological factors, but when the choice no longer exists because the farmer does not have the financial means to buy the treatment products he needs. New methods of protecting stocks against insects or mycotoxin contamination would also offer attractive new prospects. The elimination of allergenic or anti-nutritional factors in the traditional staple foods, their enrichment in vitamins and essential minerals would constitute a major step forward in terms of public health in situations where it is not realistic to hope for a rapid diversification of dietary intake. In the field of animal health likewise, recombinant vaccines are being developed for which non-pathogenic micro-organisms could serve as vectors. These micro-organisms, spreading spontaneously through livestock herds, would do away with the need for costly vaccination programmes with their associated sanitary infrastructures, veterinary personnel, and refrigeration facilities. Tangible results obtained in recent years have brought all these new developments much closer to practical reality (10,11,15,16,20). The risks linked to the use of GMOs are of a similar nature in the North or in the South. Before considering their introduction into systems that are in many ways more fragile, it might therefore be wise to wait and see whether the experience of industrialized countries bears out the hopes placed in these new techniques. However, the extrapolation of results will be difficult, since the environmental risks created by the introduction of new selection pressures will need to be assessed at a local level, though the scientific data required to perform this assessment is often severely inadequate. For example, a study of the consequences of dissemination must take into account the higher level of biodiversity and its specific rate of change. So it is not too early to start examining the way in which risks are liable to materialize in tropical climates. Like in more developed regions, the impact of what could be likened to a true technological revolution on largely stabilized technical systems would also profoundly modify the balance and regulatory mechanisms between social groups, between economic players and between countries. It is therefore important to grasp the ways in which these systems work so that the administrative and political decision makers can provide for the necessary transitions in due time. In the biotechnology sector, knowledge and tools move forward so fast that some uses which today sound like science fiction may well become technically feasible tomorrow. Other uses, on the other hand, which appear to be the logical outgrowth of results already obtained, will be held back by insurmountable constraints. Still others have yet to be imagined, as fundamental research does not plan its applications. WILL PROMISING IDEAS EVER BECOME A REALITY? None of the developments likely to be of specific interest to developing countries will come to fruition unless a great amount of work is devoted to them. It would be unrealistic to count on market mechanisms, which have been the driving force for the expansion of biotechnologies in industrialized countries, to promote the development of products benefiting the poorest countries exclusively. Only public, national, or international studies are able to mobilize the resources needed to explore original uses devoted to lowsolvency markets, to study the risks of these applications, and to understand the best conditions for successful dissemination of these innovations in specific societies. They would be failing in their vocation if they were to ignore these issues. Public research in biotechnology, however, has become dependent upon close cooperation with the private sector. Much key progress in fundamental knowledge has been achieved through private research. Companies contribute greatly towards the development and improvement of numerous laboratory techniques. Moreover, without a certain amount of good will on their part to allow access under reasonable conditions to 4 their patented techniques, it becomes almost impossible for a public laboratory, be it African, European, or American, to hope to master all the links of the chain which leads to practical application. Fortunately, private business is equally dependent upon public research, public opinion, and Southern countries. Know-how in transformation techniques serves no purpose unless you simultaneously possess a reservoir of genes where those with potentially new functions can be identified, or of varieties that already perform well in particular contexts. This gives developing countries strong bargaining power. Moreover, biotechnology firms are starting to realise that it is in their interest to change their image in the eyes of their customers through the sponsorship of research aimed at the developing world. More than simply financing the research of “orphan problems,” their most determined contribution should be in the field of intellectual property where their additional costs would be marginal, since practically no markets would actually be lost. Encouraging signals have been observed recently in exemplary cases, such as the creation of “Golden Rice” enriched in beta-carotene (21) (all the firms concerned agreed to grant the right to use their patents at no cost, whereas several dozen licences, practically impossible to negotiate, would in theory have been required). Another case concerns the manufacture of generic drugs to combat AIDS. The trial which pitted the pharmaceutical industry against the South African government demonstrated perfectly that an internationally recognised legal right cannot be enforced when it is seen as contrary to the essential needs of a part of humanity. However, these highly emblematic situations cannot be extrapolated and other crises will occur before either the laws or the manner in which they are applied evolve in a direction more favourable towards the most needy (potential) beneficiaries. Public research, for its part, is not simply contributing to the progress of knowledge in biotechnology. It can also provide private business with its own experience of Southern agricultures and of their needs, of the way plants and tropical systems work, its technical advance in the collection and management of the genetic resources of numerous species, its studies on ecosystems, its analyses of the economics and dynamics of social change, thereby contributing to the development of certain applications for which solvable markets might emerge. Biotechnology firms will become the dominant vector for introducing new technologies. It is reasonable to hope that their relationships with poor countries could, to a certain extent, balance out in favour of the latter. WILL TECHNICAL PROGRESS LEAD TO ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL PROGRESS? A systemic approach must be adopted when assessing the potential contribution of biotechnology to development. Technical factors are not the only dimension involved in the problem of improving agricultural yields over the long term. Beyond the question of how resources should best be allocated to combat poverty, the cultural factors which determine the acceptability of innovations, access to credit, agricultural pricing policies, the structure and role of institutions, are also instrumental in transforming a technical achievement into economic and social progress of benefit to society as a whole. The question of seed production and distribution deserves particular attention. In many countries, though market deregulation under the influence of multilateral organisations has led to the disappearance of the public seed production sector (of variable quality and effectiveness), no new producers or private distributors have emerged to take its place. So the availability to farmers of new high-yield varieties is even more unpredictable than in the past. Another structural barrier to the dissemination of recombinant varieties is directly linked to the difficulty of their identification. The very precision of genetic transformation methods will be exploited to manufacture varieties that are often practically indistinguishable from traditional ones, apart from a small number of characteristics that are not immediately recognizable. But there will be little demand for such varieties if growers are unable to recognize them, if they cannot identify the precise factor that has been improved when the criteria governing crop yield are numerous, or if the risk he is seeking to avoid does not actually materialise for several years (18). Similarly, how will he see the link between a nutritionally-enriched variety and the health of his family? Conversely, if cassava roots were genetically detoxified or if the risks of mycotoxin contamination after harvesting were greatly reduced, consumers might 5 take less care in their preparation, thereby increasing the risk of subsequent intoxication by non genetically modified varieties. The possible environmental impact of efforts to achieve sustainable development must not be neglected. Errors will surely be made as we advance along a path which is long and full of pitfalls. The precautionary principle, sometimes used wrongly as an excuse to prohibit any experimental approach which has not been totally mastered (8), must be applied to ensure strict compliance with ethical rules by all concerned parties so as to avoid the risk of accidents with severe and irreversible consequences. However, the precautionary measures applicable in other contexts cannot be directly transposed without taking into consideration the characteristics of social organization. For example, in zones where pest-resistant crops are planted, the strategies used to prevent the emergence of resistant insect populations will be radically different depending on whether crops are grown on large farms or on small plots of land, and on whether efficient producer organizations exist. As is the case in developed countries, the precautions to be taken and the limits to be respected can only be defined through case-by-case reasoning that takes into account the nature of the modified plant, the characteristics of the transformant, the peculiarities of the environment, and the modes of utilisation. The consequences of gene mixing between cultivated plants and wild species will depend on the particular circumstances. For example, a gene that makes a wild species more resistant may render it invasive, whereas one that enriches its vitamin content would offer it no selective advantage in terms of population dynamics. For each transgenic plant, the comparative balance of advantages and drawbacks will differ from one location to another. There is therefore no general answer to the question of the utility of GMOs for developing countries. DEVELOPING COUNTRIES HAVE ALREADY ENTERED THE ERA OF GENETICALLY MODIFIED ORGANISMS In the near future, raw materials of tropical origin may be dislodged, through a substitution by materials of temperate origin, from important markets which had been captive until now. Lauric oils for example, which were obtained exclusively from coprah or palm oil, can now be produced in rapeseed or soybean. An increasing number of tropical fruit flavours intended for industrially processed food products can be manufactured in reactors, thereby closing large outlets for tropical fruit farmers. And, to enjoy continued access to the markets of developed countries, all countries will have to comply with stringent standards of safety and traceability which will oblige them to acquire analytical capacities and to modify some of their commercial circuits. Hence, if we rule out the unlikely scenario of a sudden ban on the use of geneticallymodified plants in all Northern countries, developing countries will be unable to escape the effects of transformations in the international agricultural raw materials markets brought about by biotechnology, whatever their own choice in the matter. In addition to Argentina, China, and Mexico, who already cultivate transgenic plants on a commercial scale, about twenty other Southern countries are currently undertaking or have already tested the cultivation of such plants in their fields, including Brazil, Chile, Costa Rica, Guatemala, Honduras, Colombia, Venezuela, India, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Zimbabwe, Cameroon, the Ivory Coast, Kenya, and Egypt. Many different species and varieties are concerned, including crops specific to tropical countries such as sugar cane, papaya, cassava, sweet potatoes, plantain and clove tree. In most of these cases, they are introduced on the initiative of large firms, sometimes associated with national institutions, with a number of objectives in mind: - to make their development investments more profitable when the same plants are cultivated in both Northern and Southern countries (maize, cotton, rice, tobacco, tomato, soybean, potato…); - to offer their techniques in exchange for access to genetic resources localized in the South; - to protect themselves from the risks of geographical expansion of certain parasitic diseases which might, in time, threaten their own supplies of raw materials (cocoa trees, coffee trees on an exploratory basis). 6 A growing number of countries no longer see the point of proclaiming their acceptance or rejection of biotechnology in general, but instead are seeking to make the most out of international developments whose consequences are bound to affect them in any case. Today, most developing countries already possess (or are in the process of developing) legislative and regulatory systems concerning the production and use of genetically-modified organisms. But the most difficult task remains to be accomplished. For some this task is to define a policy based on the notion of sustainable development, while for all of them the challenge is to implement this policy, starting with the acquisition of appropriate skills (3). The viewpoints of the countries concerned cover a wide spectrum, ranging from Ethiopia which, speaking in the name of a major group of African countries, expresses strong reservations at all international meetings, to China, which is thought to have cultivated nearly 50 different species, transformed with no less than a hundred different genes (13). It is interesting to note that half of the Chinese experiments are based on work from their own laboratories. An observer as well-informed as Gordon Conway, President of the Rockefeller Foundation and theoretician of the “doubly green revolution2” went as far as declaring that (5): “if the market for GM crops really collapses in the industrialized world, and the technology's development is sharply curtailed, there's one country that will continue to invest heavily in it and potentially emerge as the world leader. That's China. China needs this technology desperately and its not going to give it up”. Between the two extremes, several countries have invested heavily to develop scientific infrastructures of international standing – Korea, Taiwan, India, and Brazil are, for example, full partners of the international consortium for the sequencing of the rice genome – in order to master transformation techniques and to use them as a means to solve their own agricultural problems, while prohibiting (until now) their large-scale use. Mexico, Kenya and Thailand are also included in this category (12). It is interesting to note that these countries, who are all highly cautious about the dissemination of GMOs have not always, as yet, accorded high priority to other components of biological security (loss of habitats, invasion by exogenous species, creation of resistant insects through non-rational use of insecticides…). The only common point shared by all Southern countries is that they intend to remain the masters of their own choices. They refuse, sometimes in very energetic terms, the surreptitious penetration of their markets under the cover of free trade, the risks of trans-boundary dissemination of GMOs, the “technological apartheid” which threatens to broaden the gap that separates them from developed countries, and the import of internal quarrels that divide the richer societies. As stated by the Nigerian minister of agriculture and rural development (1): “It is wrong and dangerous for a privileged people to presume that they know what is best for everyone. And when this happens, it cannot come as a shock that those who are imposed upon often see this attitude as colonialist. We do not want to be denied this technology because of a misguided notion that we don’t understand the dangers or the future consequences. We understand….That is our right, and we should not be denied by those with a mistaken idea that they know best how everyone should live or that they have the right to impose their values on us.” The President of Kenya and the President of the Farmers' Confederation in Andra Pradesh in India express the very same sentiments when they declare respectively : “ while the Green Revolution was a remarkable success in Asia it largely bypassed Africa. Today the international community is on the verge of the biotechnology revolution which Africa cannot afford to miss ”, or: " it is the very height of callous disregard to deny modern agricultural technologies to the world’s most needy ". The most scientifically advanced countries must not decide in place of the countries concerned, but rather help Southern countries to define their own policies in the most enlightened manner and to reap the benefits of the strategies that they are now defining. The “doubly green revolution” introduces varieties and new techniques to permit major productivity improvements in agriculture, as in the first “green revolution,” while better preserving natural resources over the long term. 2 7 THE PUBLIC DEBATE The emotional use of references to food security in controversies on genetically-modified organisms has led to a radicalisation of positions. Numerous opponents who can hardly be labelled as “obscurantist,” often particularly sensitive to the situations of the poorest countries, are opposed in principle to any research on GMOs for developing countries through fear that their arguments might be turned against them were they to adopt a less radical attitude. They offer three main arguments: - there is no proof, either of their real utility, or of the capacity of the countries concerned to manage the risks over the long term. This argument is somewhat specious when used to justify the absence of further investigations which would serve precisely to provide such proof; - the need for radically new techniques is not obvious, since the entire range of agricultural solutions currently available has not yet been tested. It would not be justified to mobilize scarce resources for secondary objectives. And yet there are clearly many problems for which no solution has been found and for which new approaches must be developed, and these problems will be more numerous in the future. The role of research is precisely to examine all possible options and to revise priorities on a regular basis as our knowledge progresses; - and finally, the development of biotechnology will reinforce the economic dependence of countries on transnational firms. To which one could reply that it is a true concern; but that it is not by opposing non-mercantile applications that this trend might be reversed. Numerous analyses of the biotechnological revolution have been performed during the last three years. Between July 1998 and November 1999, in France alone, more than 500 experts and representatives of the civil society with wide-ranging expertise, diversified socio-professional backgrounds and viewpoints were mobilized to examine the issue for a "citizens’ conference" organized by Deputy Jean-Yves Le Déaut, for the preparation of a report by the Parliament Office for the assessment of scientific and technological choices (9) or for another report from the Economic and Social Council (4). Beyond slight differences in viewpoints and expression, these working groups all came to similar conclusions summed up by the statement adopted unanimously by the Economic and Social Council: “it is essential to devote sufficient financial resources to research on biotechnology applications of particular interest to the developing world.” In-depth discussions among international bodies which cannot be suspected of naivety or collusion with corporate interests almost always reach the same recommendations. For example, the FAO has published a “statement on biotechnology in food and agriculture” which stipulates that "when appropriately integrated with other technologies for the production of food, agricultural products and services, biotechnology can be of significant assistance in meeting the needs of an expanding and increasingly urbanized population in the next millenium. FAO considers that efforts should be made to ensure that developing countries in general, and resource-poor farmers in particular, benefit more from biotechnological research." As the general director of the FAO himself explains, “In order to nourish 9 billion people, how should we proceed?… We don’t need GMOs right now. But they are one of the possible options for tomorrow, provided that…3”(6). For their part, the Academies of Science of four developing countries – China, Mexico, Brazil and India, – and from two developed countries – the United States and the British Royal Society – in addition to the Third World Academy of Sciences, have produced a common report (16). They express the same viewpoint: “it is essential that we improve food production and distribution in order to feed and free from hunger a growing world population, while reducing environmental impacts… The developers and overseers of GM technology applied to plants and micro-organisms should make sure that their efforts address such needs… New public sector efforts are required for creating transgenic crops that benefit poor farmers in developing nations.” 3 Free translation 8 CONCLUSION GMOs and their applications in Southern countries have become victims of the very strong symbolic weight they bear in the political, economic, ideological and ethical domains. Though they open radically new horizons which justify a creative approach to their possible uses and in-depth investigation of their effects, they also give birth to somewhat Manichean reactions, often strongly reflected in public opinion, which makes it difficult to look objectively at the available options. Nevertheless, it is essential to analyse coldly the applications which could be developed and the conditions which would allow them to be socially useful. Though the products of genetic engineering will not feed the world, it is highly premature to claim that the considerable hopes placed in molecular biotechnology are no more than utopias. Faced with the scale of the problems to be solved, no one should claim the right at this early stage to exclude such powerful methods from the tools that may one day become available. As professor René Frydman declared recently (7): “What I deplore, is that the ‘heuristics of fear,’ vital in a world where we cannot always predict the consequences of our acts, is too often perverted into the ‘metaphysics of fantasy.’ We seek to protect ourselves against totally unrealistic potential dangers and, being too busy with this task, forget the very real risks at our door. We are hiding our heads in the sand, ethically speaking4.” In natural environments and human societies which are both poorly understood and highly vulnerable, the uncertainties are numerous. We must hope that extreme care will prevail at each change of scale that serves to validate scientific and technical progress in both technical and social terms, from the laboratory to the greenhouse, from the greenhouse to the experimental plot, from field experiments to dissemination among farmers. In the final analysis, it is in Southern countries that the utility of genetically-modified organisms could prove the greatest, provided that they are developed to the benefit of the most needy, for types of applications significantly different from those of industrialized countries: productivity gains on small food-producing farms, reduction of risks affecting private growers deprived of access to pesticides or to irrigation, development of marginal land, an increase in the essential mineral and vitamin content of the basic diet. Companies in the sector should realise that it is in their interest to help the countries who wish to explore these opportunities, and to do so without imposing their methods or their tempo. They would thus favour the emergence of markets which might one day become lucrative. It is by showing their good will that they will avoid the imposition of mandatory licenses which will otherwise probably restrain their intellectual property rights in such vital fields as food and health. Should they succeed, they will earn a legitimacy that will help them to counter the arguments of increasingly radical critics in Western societies. In this respect, one may well wonder if the future of genetically-modified organisms in Northern countries does not, in fact, depend strongly on their capacity to keep their promises to the South. 4 Free translation 9 References 1. Adamu H., Minister of agriculture and rural development of Nigeria, « We'll feed our people as we see fit", Editorial du Washington Post 9 novembre 2000 2. Atkinson, H.J., Lilley, C.J. Urwin, P.E. and McPherson, M.J. Engineering resistance to plantparasitic nematodes. Perry, R.N. and Wright, D.J (eds). The Physiology and Biochemistry of Freeliving and Plant Parasitic Nematodes. 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