Australia and the Asia-Pacific R. James Ferguson © 2007 Lecture 7: Asia-Pacific Patterns of Transnational Transition: Foci of Instability and Underdevelopment Topics: - 1. Transnational Linkages 2. Myanmar: Domestic, Ethnic and International Tensions 3. Case Study: Drug Trade in the Golden ‘Quadrangle’ 4. Vietnam: National and Regional Gaps in Environmental Protection 5. Conclusion: The Case for Layered Cooperation 6. Bibliography and Further Resources 1. Transnational Linkages Today, we will study the day-to-day problems that impact on the sense of wellbeing of people in the Indo-Pacific region and challenge the capacities and stability of regional states, organisations, and society. Some of these are routine national problems, but in many cases they flow beyond the control of individual states or societies. Problems of infrastructure development, limited transport linkages, international disease vectors, poverty, environmental disasters, crime and smuggling, new dam projects on the Mekong and Salween Rivers, underdevelopment and ethnic and religious tensions are of immediate significance for national and regional planning (Severino 2007; International Railway Journal 2007; Dupont 2001). These issues are of special concern to countries which are still in the 'developmental stage', i.e. going through rapid modernisation and industrialisation, as well as to developed economies that sit within a wider region of uneven development, e.g. Singapore alongside Indonesia, and the developmental gap within ASEAN which has only been partly addressed by programs such as the Initiative for ASEAN Integration (IAI) and programs to support development of the Mekong River Basin (see Severino 2007). We will look at some examples which show how these 'low level' internal challenges have become a major problem for several nations in the region, but are also strong grounds for international cooperation. We can see these problems, for example, and in the problem of the drug trade in the Golden Triangle of Southeast Asia (referring to the mountainous terrain between Myanmar, Thailand and Laos (sometimes now dubbed a quadrangle, including south-western inland Chinese provinces), the only partly controlled flow of labour and migration in the region, and sustained environment damage in a country such as Vietnam that impacts on regional agenda and resources. As we have seen (lecture 2), this has already become a major focus of Australian regional concerns: - 1 With the advance of globalisation, communications, transport, financial transactions and even criminal activity have become more transnational than ever before. Threats to peace and security are generated by much more than disputes between nation states and are not readily confined by state borders. Transnational terrorism, threats posed by the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, increased intra-state conflict and the weakening of states by poor governance demonstrate this. We need an effective international system, including a reformed United Nations, which can help deliver timely outcomes in the face of these contemporary threats. While recent developments in international law, including the conclusion of treaties covering terrorism, transnational crime and corruption, go some of the way, international law must continue to evolve to remain relevant in the face of states under stress, terrorist groups acting outside any international norms and the threat of proliferation of weapons of mass destruction among state and nonstate actors. (Downer 2005, p7) ASEAN, too, though basically an inter-state dialogue process, has also become aware of the crucial turbulence that can be generated by transnational groups and transboundary problems that make non-interference possible only if levels of regional cooperation remain high. One of the clearest examples of this is the impact of drug flows out of a 'political challenged' Myanmar into adjacent states and thence in wider regional and 'global' markets. 2. Myanmar: Domestic, Ethnic and International Tensions The Golden Triangle refers to the region where the borders of Myanmar (Burma), Thailand, and Laos meet. It could now be dubbed the Golden Quadrangle, since south-west China also abuts this region, and the drug trade flows through it into Chinese provinces such as Yunnan. There is a direct connection between military conflict, regional instability, and drug production, with illegal drugs providing a main funding mechanism for insurgent groups, ethnic groups resisting central governments, or military regimes in Afghanistan, Columbia and Myanmar (see Steinberg 2000; Hache 2006). This emphasises an international problem for the region, compounded by the oppression of the Burmese regime against the National League for Democracy, whose general secretary Aung San Suu Kyi makes international headlines regularly as a detained political leader demanding improved human and political rights for Burma. The SPDC's (State Peace and Development Council) poor human rights record and its greed for power have helped cause 'the narcotics explosion in northeastern Burma after 1988', as well as complicating relations with Thailand and ASEAN as a whole (Lintner 1994, p305; Haacke 2006). There is no immediate prospect that the military-authoritarian government will quickly chart a path towards a liberal democratic system, in spite of calls by ASEAN for gradual reform, and some efforts by SPDC leaders to seem more accommodating to international demands, e.g. PM (Lt-General) Khin Nyunt’s holding of a constitutional convention (the National Convention) from May 2004 (see Khosla 1998; Strategic Comments 2003; Strategic Comments 2001; see lecture 6). The regime did not allow Suu Kyi or other key National League for Democracy Leaders such as U Tin Oo to be effectively involved the convention, in spite of Thailand’s expectation that this would be the case, and the National Convention has spoken of reform based on a ‘discipline-flourishing democracy’ (Lyall 2004). Even though some dissidents were released through late 2004, and Constitutional 2 Convention continued from early 2005 without the involvement of either opposition or the main ethnic groups, reconvened again in October 2006 and adjourned on 29 December 2006 (DFAT 2007). Myanmar (Burma): Political Divisions (Map Courtesy PCL Map Library) The country has been able to maintain a flow of foreign currency (over $1 billion in tourist investment since 1988, Zhou 2005) largely through promoting tourism activity and new energy deals even as hardliners such as retained power (Haacke 2006; Zhou 2005). The SPDC is led by Chairman and Senior General Than Shwe, an expert in psychological warfare who is also Defence Minister, while the Prime Minister is Lieutenant General Soe Win (BBC 2006b; BBC 2007a) In general, 3 through dialogue with Thailand, ASEAN, PRC and to a lesser extent India and Russia, Myanmar has been able to improve its international relations environment, in spite of strong criticism from the US, EU, and UK. Through minor reform, regional cooperation, and some gradual emergence of civil society groups among ethnic communities (see South 2004) the SPDC has been able to ward off strong external interventions. Thus, one of Myanmar's main foreign policy objectives has been to avoid being viewed as a threat to regional peace in the UNSC. The US has pursued such an agenda for the last several years, most recently in early 2007, but with the motion being vetoed by PRC (Economist 2007; Haacke 2006). However, Myanmar has a long way to go before meeting implicit regional governance norms: Myanmar's international relations strategy could therefore be seen as an amalgam of both the realist "balance of power" and constructivist "security through cooperative partnerships with regional neighbours" paradigms. Both approaches however are focused on state and regime security. The challenge for Myanmar will be to integrate the socioeconomic and political changes needed to enhance human security with the traditional indigenous approaches to state and regime security. To put the dilemma another way, the challenge will be for the state to acknowledge that its own future security is predicated on its capacity to deliver the reforms necessary for implementation of human security - a commitment to the protection of human rights in accordance with international standards; a commitment to transparency and participative practices in governance; a commitment to pluralistic democratic norms. Unless the issues fundamental to human security are successfully integrated into state/regime security, Myanmar's international relations strategy - winning friends and influencing regional governments - will be unable to deliver on its expectations. (James 2004) In part, these problems spring from the nature of the Burma as a multi-ethnic and multi-religious state. Myanmar was the name given to the country by the military regime when it felt that Burma (the English pronunciation of the colloquial ‘Bama’) emphasised too strongly the dominance of the largest ethnic group in the country, the ‘Burmese’, while Myanmnar meant 'first people in the world' (Lintner 1999, p15). Myanmar is a federal state, and has some 100 smaller ethnic groups that comprise 32-40% of the population, with the Shan (a ‘Tai’ people related to the modern Thais) being the second largest group with 7% of the total population (Lintner 1999, p15). Somewhat different official figures suggest a breakdown of ‘Burman 68%, Shan 9%, Karen 7%, Rakhine 4%, Chinese 3%, Mon 2%, Indian 2%, other 5%’ (UNDCP 2002). The country is mainly Buddhist (87%), but has religious minorities that are partly linked to ethnic groups: Christian (5%) groups including the Karen, and Muslim (4%) minorities in the cities and the Rohingya in the north (DFAT 2007). 4 Burma: A Country of Buddhist Monuments such as great Shwedagon Pagoda, but a land with significant Christian and Muslim minorities. (Photo Copyright: R. James Ferguson 2004) Through late 2005-early 2007 Myanmar has engaged in another round of conflict with the Karen ethnic group, which has been seeking greater autonomy, with the Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA) and the Karen National Union (KNU) viewed as rebels by the Burmese government. The conflict pushed dislocated an extra 10,000 Karen during this period, with up to 140,000 refugees from different parts of Burma now housed in 9 camps in Thailand. Human rights groups have signalled wide spread human rights abuses as Karen are forced from their villages (BBC 2006a). Conflict continued through early 2007: A poorly-equipped force of 12,000 men from the Karen ethnic minority is pitched against 400,000 Burmese government soldiers, complete with AK-47s, tanks and fighter planes. Most of the once huge array of ethnic rebel armies in Burma's north-east have given up the fight, signing ceasefire deals with the ruling military junta. The Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA) is increasingly alone - and certainly the largest of the groups remaining. Yet it is gradually being driven further and further back towards the Thai border. (McGeown 2007) 5 Though a UN envoy was allowed to visit the country in mid-2006, this has not led to changes in the country's closed political system, which seems unlikely to evolve towards a more open democratic system, in spite of repeated efforts by enoys such as Ibrahim Gambari (Agence France Presse 2007). The US, along with Malaysia and Indonesis, had pushed for a pattern of reform that would include the release of Aung San Suu Kyi , dialogue with democratic opposition parties, an inclusive national congress that would lead to reconciliation, and eventual return via a referendum to elections (Haacke 2006). In spite of Burma's claims that it is following a multi-step roadmap towards democracy, this has not involved a genuine reconciliation with the National League for Democracy (Reuters 2006; Haacke 2006). It has been suggested, however, that the SPDC has no real interest in an open democracy, has no interest in power-sharing or a system that might see a transition via reserved military seats in parliament, nor in allowing opposition parties to operate effectively. In this view, the National Congress and discussion since 2004 has largely been a series of delaying tactics: The junta, despite its announcement to conclude the national convention and go ahead with a referendum and general election, seems to have another plan up its sleeve. According to Aung Naing Oo, the junta has been using the national convention, which is the first step to the junta's roadmap, to extend its rules. In the real sense the junta, in any case, does not have plans to democratize the country. While it is likely that the junta will wind-up the constitution drafting convention, the military has other plans to delay the process of political reforms. (Mungpi 2007) In spite of past criticism in the UN General Assembly, the United Nations Commission on Human Rights, and even in ASEAN meetings from 2003, Myanmar has been able to secure economic support from China and India, plus continued engagement from Thailand and ASEAN. Through June 2007, the regime held discussions the US in Beijing, with PRC willing to try to reduce tensions, but seem reluctant to release Auun San Suu Kyi or other political prisoners (Agence France Presse 2007). Table I: Post-Independence Timeline of Myanmar (BBC 2004a-2007b) 1948 - Burma becomes independent with U Nu as prime minister. Mid-1950s - U Nu, together with Indian Prime Minister Nehru, Indonesian President Sukarno, Yugoslav President Tito and Egyptian President Nasser co-found the Movement of NonAligned States. 1958-60 - Caretaker government, led by army Chief of Staff General Ne Win, formed following a split in the ruling AFPFL party. 1960 - U Nu's party faction wins decisive victory in elections, but his promotion of Buddhism as the state religion and his tolerance of separatism angers the military. 1962 - U Nu's faction ousted in military coup led by Gen Ne Win, who abolishes the federal system and inaugurates "the Burmese Way to Socialism"- nationalising the economy, forming a single-party state with the Socialist Programme Party as the sole political party, and banning independent newspapers. 1974 - New constitution comes into effect, transferring power from the armed forces to a People's Assembly headed by Ne Win and other former military leaders; body of former United Nations secretary-general U Thant returned to Burma for burial. 1975 - Opposition National Democratic Front formed by regionally-based minority groups, who mounted guerrilla insurgencies. 6 1981 - Ne Win relinquishes the presidency to San Yu, a retired general, but continues as chairman of the ruling Socialist Programme Party. 1982 - Law designating people of non-indigenous background as "associate citizens" in effect bars such people from public office. 1987 - Currency devaluation wipes out many people's savings and triggers anti-government riots. 1988 - Thousands of people are killed in anti-government riots. The State Law and Order Restoration Council (Slorc) is formed. 1989 - Slorc declares martial law, arrests thousands of people, including advocates of democracy and human rights, renames Burma Myanmar, with the capital, Rangoon, becoming Yangon. NLD leader Aung San Suu Kyi, the daughter of Aung San, is put under house arrest. 1990 - Opposition National League for Democracy (NLD) wins landslide victory in general election, but the result is ignored by the military. 1991 - Aung San Suu Kyi awarded Nobel Peace Prize for her commitment to peaceful change. 1992 - Than Shwe replaces Saw Maung as Slorc chairman, prime minister and defence minister. Several political prisoners freed in bid to improve Burma's international image. 1995 - Aung San Suu Kyi is released from house arrest after six years. 1996 - Aung San Suu Kyi attends first NLD congress since her release; Slorc arrests more than 200 delegates on their way to party congress. 1997 - Burma admitted to Association of South East Asian Nations (Asean); Slorc renamed State Peace and Development Council (SPDC). 1998 - 300 NLD members released from prison; ruling council refuses to comply with NLD deadline for convening of parliament; student demonstrations broken up. 1999 - Aung San Suu Kyi rejects ruling council conditions to visit her British husband, Michael Aris, who dies of cancer in UK. 2000 September - Ruling council lifts restrictions on movements of Aung San Suu Kyi and senior NLD members. 2000 October - Aung San Suu Kyi begins secret talks with ruling council. 2001 Ruling council releases some 200 pro-democracy activists. Government says releases reflect progress in talks with opposition NLD leader Aung San Suu Kyi who remains under house arrest. 2001 February - Burmese army, Shan rebels clash on Thai border. 2001 June - Thai Prime Minister Shinawatra visits, says relations are back on track. 2001 September - Intelligence chief Khin Nyunt visits Thailand. Burma pledges to eliminate drugs trade in the Golden Triangle by 2005. 2001 November - Chinese President Jiang Zemin visits, issues statement supporting government, reportedly urges economic reform. 2002 May - Pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi released after nearly 20 months of house arrest. 2003 May - Aung San Suu Kyi taken into "protective custody" after clashes between her supporters and those of government. 2003 July - Military leadership says it has uncovered plot to "sabotage" government and assassinate some leading members. 2003 August - Khin Nyunt becomes prime minister. He proposes to hold convention in 2004 on drafting new constitution as part of "road map" to democracy. 2003 November - Five senior NLD leaders released from house arrest after visit of UN human rights envoy. 2004 January - Government and Karen National Union - most significant ethnic group fighting government - agree to end hostilities. 2004 April - Government says pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi will be released from house arrest by 17 May, ahead of a constitutional convention on Burma's future. 2004 May - Constitutional convention begins, despite boycott by National League for Democracy (NLD) whose leader Aung San Suu Kyi remains under house arrest. 2004 October - Khin Nyunt is replaced as prime minister amid reports of a power struggle. He is placed under house arrest. 7 2004 November - Leading dissidents are freed as part of a release of thousands of prisoners, including Min Ko Naing, who led the 1988 pro-democracy student demonstrations. 2004 December - Giant waves, generated by an undersea earthquake off the Indonesian coast, hit coastal regions. The prime minister says 59 people were killed and more than 3,000 left homeless. 2005 February - Constitutional convention resumes, but without the participation of the main opposition and ethnic groups. 2005 May - Three near-simultaneous explosions go off in shopping districts in the capital; the government puts the death toll at 23. 2005 July - Asean announces that Burma has turned down the 2006 chairmanship of the regional grouping. 2005 November - Burma says its seat of government is moving to a new site near the central town of Pyinmana. 2006 March - The new capital - Nay Pyi Taw - hosts its first official event, an Armed Forces Day parade. 2007 January - China and Russia veto a draft US resolution at the UN Security Council urging Burma to stop persecuting minority and opposition groups. 2007 April - Burma and North Korea restore diplomatic ties, 24 years after Rangoon broke them off, accusing North Korean agents of staging a deadly bomb attack against the visiting South Korean president. 2007 May - Aung San Suu Kyi's house arrest extended for another year. 2007 June - In a rare departure from its normally neutral stance, the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) accuses the government of abusing the Burmese people's rights. In part, Burma represents a regional problem due to its extended borders (e.g. with Thailand and China), and to its inclusion of a wide range of diverse ethnic groups within its national framework. On this basis, Thailand, ASEAN, PRC and India have expressed special interest in Burma, based up stability issue and transnational flows out of the country. Thailand and ASEAN have been concerned about labour and undocumented labour flows, PRC has a strong trade flow with Burma but is also troubled by drug flows into its South-western province, and Indian has sought to some degree to balance the strong Chinese presence in the country. Likewise, Thailand, PRC and India have been interested in securing greater access to energy flows of Burmese gas fields, with PRC now most likely to proceed with new major pipelines out of new gas fields in 2007. The borders problem derived from the traditional development of civilisation in Southeast Asia. Geographically, Indochina is dominated by the orientation of the Mekong, Chindwin, Salween and Irrawaddy Rivers in a basically north-south orientation, with the structure of the peninsula forcing the use of rivers and coastlines to facilitate trade and communications. In Southeast Asia today the major states have developed along river basins or with access to the sea, and in many cases minorities have inhabited higher and less productive land, often along borders. Minority groups, ethnic groups, and oppositional groups are often forced up into the mountainous and forested inland terrain which lies along many of the borders of the region. These borders are very 'porous' (as in the Thai-Burma and the BurmaChinese border), and problematic in that highland and forest territories are often occupied by minority peoples, who straddle key border areas. The Meo, the Karen (for the impact of the refugee experience and Christianity on the Karen’s sense of nation, see Rajah 2002; South 2007), the Karennis, Pa-os, Kachins (who had a powerful military organisation and have opposed opium growing), Lahu, Wa, and the Montagnard peoples do not readily fit into one state region and remain remote from 8 central state control. These porous borders intensify the problems of gun and drug smuggling, the issue of cross-border 'rebel' groups, and refugee exodus, which can constitute a major security problem for these nations (Harris 1993, p23; Loescher 1992). As of mid-2000, for example, some 90,000 people remained in refugee camps along the Thai-Myanmar border, most of them having fled from the repressive military regime which still used forced corvee ('slave') labour, especially in the border Shan and Karen areas, in the 1980s (Economist 2000). Through 2002-2003, due to conflicts with the Myanmar government, some 100,000 Karen were pushed across the Thai border (see Checchi et al. 2003), with these numbers being increased again through 2005-2007 towards 140,000 refugees. The Karen and the Mon are two minorities that are generally not involved in ‘narcotics business’, while through 2007 the southern part of Shan state and the Wa region (until 2005) had strong drug production (Haacke 2006; Gibson & Haseman 2003, p14). The power of the ancient political kingdoms was based mainly on the lowlands of Southeast Asia, with remote hill peoples being much more difficult to control (Wolters 1982, p32). It is no accident that insurgent groups used remote border regions for their activities, e.g. in the past the communist parties of Malaysia, Thailand and Burma, and now efforts by the Karen and the Wa to retain stronger independence from the Burmese state. Ethnic Groups within Burma (Courtesy PCL Map Library) 9 3. Drug Trade in the Golden ‘Quadrangle’ These themes of porous borders, and lack of direct control of ethnic minorities, were complicated by the threat posed by communism to the post-War governments of Southeast Asia. These governments, especially in Myanmar and Thailand, were often willing to use rebel minority groups, including opium warlords, to help patrol their borders, provide intelligence information, and contain communist infiltration. This was a conscious policy used by both the Thai and Burmese governments in the 1960s and 1970s. Even academic institutions had their role to play. This anticommunist aspect is seen most clearly in the fact that with the defeat of the Kuomintang (Nationalist, KMT) forces in the Chinese Civil war in 1949, various KMT groups and their leaders (including Generals Li and Duan) fled into the northern sections of Thailand and Burma. From this position, they hoped to continue waging their war against communists, sometimes in raids launched into Yunnan province, and with aid supplied by the CIA during the 1950s (Lintner 1993a, p56). It is also possible that the CIA supported drug production through the 1970s to fund anti-communist groups along the Thai and Burmese border (Takano 2002, p7). However, after Taiwan cut off economic aid in the early 1960s, the Kuomintang groups had to rely on the only cash resource with which to buy arms and keep their struggle going - the opium and heroin trade. Likewise, insurgent groups such as the Burmese Communist Party, though opposed to opium in principle, in the long run also had to become involved in the opium trade. Ironically, the Myanmar government helped boost these activities by the way they created local militia units to fight regional communists. They allowed the creation of the Shan United Army in 1963, and permitted the militia the use of government controlled roads and villages, but offered no wages, and little equipment. It was the commander of this Shan United Army (SUA) who would become the most famous drug warlord of the region - Khun Sa, alias Chan See Fu, who in the late 1990s retired under a Myanmar government amnesty and lived comfortably under a surrender agreement (Gibson & Haseman 2003, p13). Khun Sa had moved into the refining of opium into heroin, and that by the 1970s was responsible for 40% of the drug output of the Golden Triangle (200-300 tons). Ironically, Khun Sa became a regional strongman not as the leader of a separatist revolt, but as a local militia commander was supposed to suppress such groups. In time, Khun Sa established bases inside Thailand north of Chiang Rai, and his stepbrothers Oscar and Billy joined him in a prosperous international trade (Lintner 1994, p244). Khun Sa fought against the remaining KMT operations, and soon established his position securely. His main role was to retain control of a stretch of the Thai border where heroin refineries were placed, with the owners of these refineries being syndicates based in Bangkok, Hong Kong and Taiwan - these groups paid a tax to Khun Sa in exchange for protection by his army (Lintner 1994, p254), while at the same time claiming to support Shan autonomy. From 1985 Khun Sa merged his forces with other Shan elements to form the Shan State Army (SSA), an 8,000 strong force. Khun Sa had claimed to be earning $8 million as his cut in the opium trade (Asiaweek 1987a). Yet the Thais 'were not entirely unhappy' with Khun Sa's army acting as an unofficial border control unit, and his usefulness as an 'intelligence asset' was widely recognised (Lintner 1994, p263). 10 Indeed, elements in the Thai military were keen to gain millions of dollars in foreign aid for drug suppression, but did not wish to actually destroy Khun Sa - as a result they arranged a series of fake drug suppression raids in 1984 and 1987 - in return, Khun Sa was allowed to build a road in Northern Thailand up to his Homong headquarters in Shan State (Lintner 1994, pp305-6). The Shan State Army remains active through mid-2007 in resisting the Burmese military, but has how largely shifted out of poppy production (Gibson & Haseman 2003, p13). The Myanmar government, too, was willing to use its trained troops against minority insurgent groups and communist guerrillas (Lintner 1994, p264) and officials in the Myanmar military were soon either involved in direct corruption, or in indirect money laundering schemes (Bernstein & Kean 1996). Revenue from the drug trade also flowed into the national economy - revenues in Thailand from the Golden Triangle drug trade were estimated at US$3.2 billion for 1989 (Lintner 1994, p327). By 1996, this had greatly increased. The total Asian heroin trade in the mid1990s was estimated as producing about $63 billion in profits each year, with Myanmar then supplying up to 50% of the world supply (Bernstein & Kean 1996), though the late 1990s Afghanistan also increased production to become the major supplier. At the same time, other operators took up the trade, e.g. Lin Mingxian, a former member of the Communist Party of Myanmar, well connected with Chinese officials in Yunnan, has been routing drugs through China, but 'for transit only, not for sale in China' (Lintner 1993, p27). Through 2004-2007 there have been downturns in opium production in Burma of around 26% through the year, with only 312 metric tons being produced, with local 'farm gate' production worth around US$58 million and supporting some 965,000 persons through 2004 (UNODC 2005). Likewise, Afghanistan through emerged as the major global supplier, while Burmese production seems to have slowed through 2006: While the statistics of opium production in Burma remain disputed, there is little doubt that the global center for opium production has decidedly shifted to Afghanistan, with the UNODC estimating that Afghanistan now accounts for nearly 90 percent of the world's raw opium. Burma remains a distant second behind Afghanistan in opium cultivation, with the UNODC reporting that 2006 opium harvesting in Burma was a mere 16 percent of its 1998 numbers. (Smith 2007) Through 2006 the UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) 'found that the area in Myanmar devoted to growing the plants fell by more than a third last year, to 21,500 hectares' with Myanmar remaining 'the world’s second-largest opium producer' but with only '11 percent of global production' (Daily Times 2007). Through 2004-2007, these problems have taken on a different form, with new drugs taking on large user markets within Thailand, and creating a nexus of organised crime, corruption and localised violence that has been of major concern to the country even as it become more affluent, with heroin and methamphetamines emerging as major problems. This has led to Thai government under former Prime Minister Thaksin through 2003-2005 to take on a tough law and order approach, hunting down, arresting, and in many cases killing known drug distributors, with some 1,700-2,000 deaths during the campaign (Strategic Comments 2006; Ahmad 2003; for 11 authoritarian trends under Thaksin's administration, see Connors 2003). However, this approach is not a long-term solution: it has since been recognised, that up to one third of those arrested may have been innocent, that numerous police officers have died during the crackdown, and that the drug flows may only been slowed but the problem has not been solved. At the same time it should be noted that Myanmar has something in the order of 500,000 addicts, indicating a real social cost for a relatively poor country (see Brook 2001). Within Myanmar, locally, these drug growers and runners were often not viewed as criminals. On the contrary, they brought wealth to poor villages, helped build schools and hospitals, and gave donations 'to charities and religious institutions' (Lintner 1994, p248) - they provided a social infrastructure to bind local groups to them loyally, a technique used by small insider groups around the world. Thus the Wa people of Burma (who live in remote parts of Shan state), for example, even into the early 1990s lived in a region largely without roads, educational systems, health care or electricity, and therefore found opium one of the few viable crop alternatives. It was no surprise that they therefore were one of the main producers of opium, especially when this was encouraged by local 'warlords' and elements in the military (see Bernstein & Kean 1996). As of 2000-2002 it was estimated that some 300,000 members of these ethnic minorities then involved in drug production, with Wa region being the largest drug producing area of the country (followed by Kokang state), with production being controlled and protected in part by the anti-government United Wa State Army (UNDP 2000; Takano 2002, pp1-11). A cease-fire for 1989-1999 had been signed between the Wa and the government on the basis of the establishment of ‘transportation routes, communication, electricity, education, medical services’ etc. but through 2002 little of this had been done (Takano 2002, p13). Some of these tasks have been taken up by a UNDCP project, emphasising alternative ‘agriculture, road building, water and sanitation, and community development’, especially in the southern Wa area and around Kyaingtonge (Gibson & Haseman 2003, p16). The Wa region had been basically a ‘no go’ area for government troops, and local level autonomy largely recognised (Gibson & Haseman 2003, p8). When the Wa began to move out of opium production through 2005, this did not solve all their problems, with UN and local SHAN news sources (Shan Herald Agency for News) giving different views: Both reports detail the eradication of opium farming in Wa regions, with the UNODC estimating that throughout Burma approximately 300,000 fewer people, 632,000 in total, were involved in the cultivation of opium during the previous year. However, whereas the UNODC views this as the successful implementation of drug policy, SHAN stresses the economic plight of the Wa population and the "growing dissatisfaction among hundreds of thousands of Wa farmers forced into hardship by the opium ban", often leading to forced migration. Consequently, SHAN views this supposed success as a widespread failure, providing the Wa community with no alternative means of sustainability and ultimately leaving approximately 75 percent of the population with an inadequate supply of food. (Smith 2007) The connection between the Golden Triangle and the Yunnan region can be seen in the way the border trade could be used as a base of power. The Communist Party of 12 Burma (CPB) in the 1980s, for example, used its control of the town of Pangsai (7,000 people) to regulate trade into China. The town 'had several video halls, beauty parlours, hotels, a big market place with plenty of contraband goods and excellent Chinese food' - yet its main benefit was that the CPB could tax the drug trade flowing into China. Hence the loss of this town in 1986 dealt an almost fatal blow to the finances of the group (Lintner 1994, pp270-271). It is significant to note that only after this, in 1988, could the Chinese and Myanmar governments sign an agreement recognising official cross-border trade between the two countries - this would allow a huge influx of Chinese consumer goods into Myanmar and then out into the Indian Ocean trade routes. In turn, Myanmar became a political and military ally, with China trading military equipment (F-7 jet fighters, patrol boats, tanks, APCs etc.), as well as helping build road, rail and port facilities (Haacke 2006; Lintner 1994, pp3135). Ironically, however, this in turn intensified the porousness of this border from the Chinese point of view, and drug abuse soon emerged as a major form of 'social and cultural pollution' (and associated AIDS problems due to the shared use of needles) in Yunnan province. Routes also opened up from Yunnan to ports in Southern coastal China (Lintner 1994, p324). Things became so serious along several borders that in 1992 the People's Liberation Army brought in thousands of troops supported by tanks to take a border town, Pingyuan, near the Vietnamese border, totally run by drug smugglers. After 80 days of fighting, 854 people were arrested, 981 kilos of drugs taken and 353 assorted weapons found (Lintner 1994, pp324-5; Lintner 1993b, p27). From 1991, China has also regularly executed smugglers of drugs, and engaged in regular crackdowns (Boyd 1991). Street posters throughout Chinese cities emphasise the degrading social and health effects of drug abuse. Drugs still transit through Yunnan, though PRC has sought to improve its ability to interdict such flows: Yunnan, with more than 4,000 kilometers of border with Myanmar, Thailand and Laos, is a neighbor of the Golden Triangle, a notorious drug production area. It easily falls victim to drug dealing and has been designated by Chinese authorities as a target area for cracking down on the influx of drugs. Frontier guards in Yunnan province had built a dual-level network to prevent narcotics from entering the country from the Golden Triangle on the one hand and enhanced crack-down on narcotics transport and smuggling in Yunnan on the other hand. The Mukang checkpoint, an advanced unit for striking narcotics smuggling, cracked 915 drug-related cases, seizing 507 kg of drugs and capturing 765 suspects last year. The checkpoint has opened training courses and built new information channels to combat drug smuggling. (Xinhua 2005a) Through 2007 Thai and Chinese authorities have intensified anti-drug cooperation, with crystal meth and Ecstasy being transported in large quantities across the border, while PRC has sought to control the base chemicals used in drug production: . . . crystal meth and Ecstasy are now taking the places of traditional drugs like heroin and opium. In 2005 alone, China confiscated nearly 6 tones of Crystal Meth. The production of these drugs don't require large fields or human power. They can be made by easily accessible chemicals like Toluene and Ephedrine. 13 Qujing is the provincial industrial base for such chemicals' production. Authorities say strict regulation is the only option. Chai Jiaping, vice-director Qujing anti-drug committee, said, "All the chemical factories here must register with us. We also cooperate with local police to monitor the use of chemicals. Over the past 5 years, no drugs confiscated by us have been made from Qujing materials." Now, 29 chemicals are strictly controlled by Yunnan's provincial regulations. This exceeds the UN's list by 7 chemicals. Yunnan has a long border with Myanmar, Thailand and Laos and is close to the Golden Triangle- one of the world's 3 biggest drug sources. The Chinese government has been fighting a fierce struggle against drugs there for many years. (Du 2007) A Busy Street in Kunming (Yunnan, PRC): A Multicultural Society, as much Southeast Asian in Style as Chinese. (Photo Copyright: R. James Ferguson 2001) In general terms, the drug trade was easier to organise during periods of civil war, ethnic violence, and during nearby large-scale conflicts, e.g. during the Vietnam War, during periods of conflict in Myanmar. Against this background we can see why most governments of the ASEAN grouping and Greater Mekong Sub-region (GMS) take a very hard line on drugs, drug use, and drug running, with calls for a strengthened agenda through 2005-2007, with partly successful efforts in Laos, Thailand and Myanmar (Xinhua 2005b). In most countries, the possession, manufacture or smuggling of relatively small amounts of heroin (usually 100 grams or more) results in a mandatory death penalty or life imprisonment (e.g. in Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand). At the same time, this has resulted in diplomatic tensions 14 with foreign governments, who do not have the death penalty and whose citizens are sometimes caught smuggling drugs, e.g. friction with Britain, Australia, the US, and New Zealand. Moreover, the ASEAN target that the region would be drug free by 2015 (and Myanmar claiming to eradicate its own problem by 2005), with a special reduction of drug flows from Myanmar (Razak 2001; BBC 2004), will not been easy to achieve, especially with new drug exports and with patterns of relative poverty within Myanmar. The deeper problem of this drug trade is that there is a thriving local and global market for the product, with local economies implicated as largely operating on laundered or in actually laundering drug funds (Bernstein & Kean 1996). To some extent, the economy of Myanmar was partly dependent on flows out of the drug trade through the 1990s. The country’s ‘lax banking and commercial laws have encouraged the laundering of drug profits, a major source of capital and infrastructure investment over the last decade’ (Gibson & Haseman 2003, p13). By one estimate, in the late 1990s the country itself earned something in the order of US$700 million to 1 billion each year from drugs, as well as seeking to garner some limited military and economic support from the US by running anti-drug suppression campaigns of limited success (Steinberg 2000). Likewise, the drug issue has been used as a political tool against particular ethnic groups, often tolerating one group or pitting one against another. Indeed, it now seems likely that a large segment of the national economy, and perhaps even the military acquisitions of Myanmar, had been indirectly funded through flows of drug-money (Bernstein & Kean 1996). There has been some limited improvement in regional cooperation in dealing with these drug and related problems (money laundering, arms smuggling, transnational criminal groups). ASEAN and Thai groups now have stronger cooperation and working committees that have been in operation since 2002, with Thailand trying to develop a multi-level ‘interlocking series of programs’ including replacement crops, enforcement and education approaches (Emery 2003; New Straits Times 2002). Likewise, the UN has sought over three decades to develop a comprehensive antidrug program. For Myanmar this includes use of satellite imagery, extensive ground verifications in Shan state, and 'rapid' ground assessments in Kachin state (UNODC 2005). Key features of the program for the 2003-2007 period include: ï‚· ï‚· ï‚· ï‚· ï‚· ï‚· ‘Objective monitoring of the drug situation in the country and evaluation of interventions Provision of holistic alternatives for opium poppy farmers living in areas accounting for about 70%of nation-wide opium production. Intensive cross-border cooperation with emphasis on halting production and trafficking in Amphetamine-Type Stimulants (ATS) and trade in its precursor chemicals. Effective implementation of the 2002 money laundering legislation and the pending mutual legal assistance act. Introducing targeted demand reduction activities, including prevention focussed on the needs of youth, and treatment and rehabilitation for addicts. Introduction of solutions to drug use and HIV transmission through co-ordination, scaling up and implementation of innovative initiatives.’ (UNDCP 2002) 15 Although opium production and heroin flows directly into Thailand from Myanmar have been reduced over the last five years, new products have been developed: While Thai authorities have been successful in eradicating the indigenous opium crop and intercepting heroin shipments coming from Burma, they have been plagued by a growing problem with amphetamine-type stimulants, primarily methamphetamine. Called ya ba in Thailand, methamphetamine pills have been around for decades. The Thai government estimates that over 600 million pills are smuggled into the country each year. Virtually all of the production takes place in Burma and is smuggled across the border into Thailand, with some shipments being routed through Laos. The Wa and Shan tribes are the primary players in the "meth" trade, just as they have been in opium and heroin. (Emery 2003) These amphetamine type stimulants (ATS) flow in the wider market, with two thirds of these users globally living in Asia, some 33 million users globally (Ahmad 2003). There are also concerns that social realities make intervention approaches hard to apply, since ATS is used not just as a recreational and youth drug, but is also used to sustain and boost work performance on a routine basis in parts of Southeast Asia (Ahmad 2003). Likewise, Myanmar has emerged as a major source of fake antibiotics and illegal pharmaceuticals, many of which lack the active or appropriate levels of ingredients to be effective and safe, e.g. in treating malaria and tuberculosis (Health and Medicine Week 2004). The issue is not the private morality of drug use, but the fact that as banned or controlled commodities, the production and use of opium, heroin and methamphetamines become a criminal activity linked to regional conflicts, local insurgencies and transnational criminal networks. Basically, Myanmar would need to meet the ‘legitimate political aspirations’ of the country’s diverse minorities, and offer these people realistic economic alternatives for making a living (Gibson & Haseman 2003, pp1-2). Furthermore, traditional military organisations are not very effective in dealing with the international drug problems, with criminal organisations treating national borders with contempt, and often being able to suborn elements of the military forces used against them (Dziedzic 1989, pp543-4). This is not a problem that can be dealt with by normal enforcement, either at the final sale point on the street, nor just by attacking the producers. As noted by Michael Dziedzic: 'Countries that provide a demand for illicit drugs thus create conditions that can lead to a serious deterioration in the security environment of producer countries' (Dziedzic 1989, p546). Here we see a problem which is at once national, regional, and global. This means that the problem is complex, and must be approached by a multifaceted program, with real, alternative development counterbalancing the economic benefits of drug production (see further Gibson & Haseman 2003). This is difficult to sustain within a system with an authoritarian that has not made peace some ethnic groups that have relied on drugs as part of their funding base, and in a region where transnational lfows remain hard to control. 16 4. Vietnam: National and Regional Gaps in Environmental Protection During the wars which plagued Vietnam through World War II, then in following decades against the French and the Americans, Vietnam suffered huge ecological damage, due to both the massive bombing and military campaigns, as well as the effects of an economy in sustained crisis and thereafter rapid economic expansion from the mid-1990s. It took more than two decades after the end of this period of wars (ended in 1975) for the full ecological and social impact to become obvious (Kinh 1994). Since Vietnam (the Socialist Republic of Vietnam) had suffered such extensive damage in the Vietnam War, its government has become very proactive in its attitude to environmental policy, in spite of the desire for foreign investment and modernisation. Indeed, Vietnam's foreign investment code became quite liberal and its market is partly openning in line with a desire for modernisation and economical renewal from the mid-1980s. The link between rapid economic growth and environmental pressure was well established in Southeast Asia from the 1990s: Trends show that rapid economic growth leads to an exponential increase of pollution . . .. Because more investment will take place when Vietnam enters AFTA [ASEAN Free Trade Area], there is a threat of increases in both "brown" pollution (industrial and urban pollution) and "green" pollution (depletion of natural resources). Given the ongoing industrialization and urbanization, air and water pollution have already become critical issues in Vietnam's major cities, particularly in the areas of growth called the economic triangles. . . . With regard to the official development aid (ODA), the picture is similar to that for foreign direct investment (FDI). Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City account for 9% of the country's population but absorbed 37% of the total ODA of U.S. $185 million in 1993 and 38% of U.S. $216 million in 1994 (United Nations Development Program [UNDP], 1995). In these areas, water and air pollutants are at levels many times higher than maximum permissible levels under Vietnam's new laws. (Phuong 1997) Vietnam has joined the WTO through early 2007, with solid progress in negotiations through mid-2006 (John 2006) leading to full membership, and with GDP growth rates of annually 6.9-7.7% for the 2001-2006 (DFAT 2006; Vietnam Investment Review 2004). Such growth in part has been based on sustained patterns of foreign investment: Foreign direct investment (FDI) into Vietnam is expected to reach $20 billion this year, double the figure of 2004. FDI rose 50% in 2005 and 60% last year. However, the country's reliance on FDI to spur growth has its drawbacks as Vietnam lacks the type of huge foreign-exchange reserve cushion that China enjoys. Vietnam's current reserves are only $15 billion, compared with more than $1 trillion in China and $72 billion in Thailand. The country's trade deficit as of June 30 was $4 billion and could top $7 billion for fiscal 2007. The deficit reflects high imports of capital goods, but . . . Vietnam's inflation rate of 67% also needed to be watched closely. (Pandey 2007) Within this time frame, too, the enormous ecological impact caused by poorly controlled resource exploitation in several south-east Asian countries has 17 emerged, ranging from deforestation and soil erosion through to the problems of air and soil pollution. As a result, environmental concerns have received a strong focus in Vietnamese planning (Lansbury 1994, p14). The country of Vietnam, even after the unification of north and south, faces several general factors which exacerbate ecological problems. Essentially, Vietnam had an underdeveloped resource base combined with a relatively high growth rate in population through the 1980s and 1990s (circa 2.1-2.3%). Furthermore, considerable ecological damage has been experienced by one third of the country, leaving a range of serious war legacies and contemporary problems to be dealt with. There been demographic drifts into cities with over-stretched infrastructures. During the early 1990s infrastructure limitations, such as poor roads, ports, telecommunications and electricity limited the rate of foreign investment, as well as attempts to develop a strong, modern economy (Hiebert & Awanohara 1993, pp68-69). Certain regions, such as the Red River Delta, to the east of Hanoi, suffer from extensive population pressure. In 1989, this region had 8001000 people per square kilometre, and was a source of out-migration into virgin hill forests (Hiebert 1989, pp42-3). With a population growth rate peaking at 2.3% the population could have reached 119 million in 2025 (Huynh & Stengel 1993, p269). Since that time, a strong population-growth reduction strategy has led to a drop in growth rate to around 1.4% and ‘in its 2001-2010 population strategy, Vietnam has set the target of reducing its population growth rate to 1.1 percent and limit the population to 88 million in 2010’ (Xinhua 2001). The population in 2005 reached 83.8 million (DFAT 2006). Generally there has been considerable damage to forest areas, extensive soil erosion with subsequent silting up of dams and river systems, and related problems in agriculture and fishing industries. These problems have now begun to be exacerbated by recent economic development, including illegal logging and mining (for the illegal extraction smuggling of iron ore, of up to one million tons each year, and coal, see Energy CustomWire 2004), with the result that more resources are used and the risk of environmental degradation continuing. Hence, the issue of past and prospective environmental damage has emerged as a major national problem needing immediate action. Vietnam saw its open door policy to foreign investment as crucial to the further development of the country. This policy is part of a broader economic reform called doi moi, renovation, which has been running since reforms introduced in December 1986 and accelerated after 1989 (Hiebert 1991, p18; Thanh 2005). This economic reform process has also led to Vietnam engaging in bilateral and regional trade agreements: The reform process in Vietnam, however, has been uneven. It was recognized even in 1996 that the reforms were not keeping pace with economic development. Moreover, the reform process in general slowed down during the period 1996-99, especially after the Asian financial crisis. The years 2000 to 2004 witnessed new commitments to reform continuation and some progresses were made, especially in the development of private sector and trade liberalization. Meanwhile, the reforms of the state-owned enterprises (SOEs), the banking system, and the public administration were slower than expected, and this has limited the effectiveness of other reforms. In parallel with the economic reforms, the acceleration of the process of international economic integration has played a key role in enhancing efficiency and promoting economic growth. In 1992, Vietnam signed a trade agreement with the European Union (EU). In 1995, it joined ASEAN and committed to fulfil the agreements under 18 AFTA by 2006. Vietnam applied for WTO membership in 1995 and is expected to be a member in 2005. In 1998, it became a member of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), and in the year 2000, signed the Bilateral Trade Agreement with the United States (VN-U.S. BTA). This agreement came into force in December 2001. Recently, Vietnam has also joined regional integration clubs such as ASEAN-China Free Trade Area (2002) and ASEAN-Japan Comprehensive Economic Partnership (2003). (Thanh 2005) On this basis, it has been suggested that the country will need to privatise some 1,700 state owned companies by 2010, and that Vietnam has key advantages in agricultural exports such as pepper, cashew nuts, rice and coffee (Pandey 2007). At the same time, even before opening up the country to economic reform, Vietnam began to develop legal guidelines to help control the possible negative environmental impacts of such development. For example, each major project requires an environmental impact study, using guidelines and procedures developed by the Ministry of Science Technology and Environment. These policies were needed to avoid further damaging an already ravaged environment. The issue here is not one of the aesthetic niceties, but of having clean water, intact soil and marine resources, and avoiding disease and severe health problems (Kinh 1994). Water resources around Ho Chi Minh City, in particular, were also highly stressed (Duc & Truong 2003). A wide range of factors have led to ecological damage in Vietnam. One central factor was the last Vietnam War, in which the massive use of air power led to the spraying of 72 million litres of herbicides, and 13 million tons of bombs, with some 1.7 million hectares being affected (figures from Konh 1994). The use of saturation bombing also led to a loss of 20 million cubic metres of commercial timbers and over 300 million kilograms in food production (Kinh 1994). The pollution caused by the spraying of defoliants, in particular, has left serious soil damage and there has only been limited success in replanting these forest areas, especially in the central-western region. Toxic chemicals such as 'Agent Orange' created something of a scandal in the US and Australia where it now emerges that 'all veterans who served in Vietnam were exposed to Agent Orange, often at levels higher than those inflicted on the men who sprayed it' (ENV 2000). Most of these studies, however, ignored the cumulative effect on the Vietnamese population, who were exposed most directly and for the longest periods. On this basis, the Vietnamese government made payments to workers, soldiers and volunteers working in affected areas through 1961 to 1975 and their disabled children. Through 2000-2002 these issues lead to research that in some cases ‘agent orange’ has entered local food supply chains (Phuong 2000), e.g. some fisheries, while some dioxin 'hot spots' have been found near Bien Hoa City, 35 kilometres north of Ho Chi Minh City, and some food has had higher than safe levels, e.g. concentrated in animal fats (Economist 2002; Spurgeon 2003). President Nguyen Minh Triet in June 2007 thanked the US for some $3 million of funding in support of victims of agent orange (CNN 2007). The war, however, was only part of the problem for Vietnam's environment. Shifting cultivation patterns by certain ethnic minorities have been seen by the government to be problematic for preservation of forests and for soil and water conservation, especially in the rugged north-west of the country. The Meo people, for example, 19 use rotating slash-and-burn forms of agriculture that require the use of extensive lands to feed a single family. The Vietnamese government has already excluded them from small sectors of the forest, hoping to ensure that certain segments remain unaffected, especially in watershed areas (Kinh 1994). Likewise, the government has tried to encourage the Meo to adopt a more sedentary village life style, and provide both food and fertilisers in order to make this shift easier. Although there is some concern about the impact this would have on traditional Meo culture, the Vietnamese government feels that the forest region is too crucial an ecological region to be left unmanaged. Although such traditional shifting agriculture patterns may be viable, they can only support low population numbers and can impact on water catchment areas as well as lead to some deforestation (for cultural aspects of this debate, see O’Brien 2002; for parallel issues for the Hmong and Karen people in northen Thailand, see Tomforde 2003). There has also been a serious agricultural encroachment of farming into forest areas in other parts of Vietnam. This was often due to spontaneous immigration from the coastal regions by poorer farmers who sought to improve their standard of living by clearing new land. The result has been some rolling back of forest. Unfortunately, some farmers engaged in these activities do not have sufficient knowledge to do this effectively. In the case of rainforest areas, there is no guarantee the soil will remain fertile once cleared of the ecosystem which supported it. Thus uncontrolled migration, and to a lesser extent, government-managed migration schemes, have destroyed forests and led to conflicts with minority peoples such as the Montagnard groups of the central highlands. From 1975-1989 some 550,000 people had taken part in government sponsored migration into this central region, while a total 3.5 million people have been resettled from high population areas into 300 special economic zones located throughout underdeveloped parts of Vietnam (Kinh 1994). Through the 1980s most of these schemes were voluntary, and were aimed at reducing unemployment, increasing internal food supplies, and encouraging cash crops such as coffee, rubber and pepper (Heibert 1989, pp42-3). Through the 1990s agriculture was also modernised, allowing the sale of 'land use rights', the use of agricultural inputs and machinery, and growing production levels of production; In the improved economic climate, the new agricultural policies quickly generated positive results. (1) First, land was used more productively. Through contracts and bids, much land that under collectivism had only been marginally farmed was put back into use. Second, a large source of private investment capital for agriculture was mobilized in rural areas. Third, agricultural productivity increased considerably, and agriculture developed from self-sufficiency to commodity production. In 1989, Vietnam's rice production was 21.44 million tonnes, an increase of over three million tonnes over 1987. Vietnam was able to export 1.4 million tonnes of polished rice. Since 1989, food production has expanded well beyond the national population growth rate of 2.3%. By 1995, food production per capita was 370 kg, an increase of 70 kg over 1989. Rice production had reached 25 million tonnes. Vietnam had become the third largest rice exporter in the world. (Henin 2002). While this helped overall reductions in poverty levels (this decreased from 58% in 1992/93 to 37% in 1997/98, Henin 2002), it also intensified pockets of rural 20 poverty as less workers were needed, and also started a drift towards the major cities: Unemployment in Vietnam's rural areas has risen sharply since the introduction of the economic reforms. One explanation is purely demographic. Each year the number of rural people who reach the working age increases by over 800,000. Meanwhile the already scarce agricultural area (0.51 hectare per household) continues to decline due to urbanization. Another explanation lies in the modernization of farming practices and the replacement of collective agriculture by more productive, less labour-intensive forms of agricultural production, which have contributed to the rise of underemployment in rural areas. Rural unemployment, in part, has triggered a process of rural-urban migration nationwide. The share of urban population, which was relatively stable before socio-economic renovation, increased from 20.3% in 1990 to 24% in 1992. Most estimates point to a total level of urbanization of at least 35% by the year 2010. Yet only half the annual 1.2 million young migrants are able to find employment. The migration of young and adult workers to cities has resulted in a shortage of infrastructure and social services in urban areas and in their neglect in the countryside. (Henin 2002) Generally too, these forest regions have suffered from over-hunting and the rivers from overfishing. At the same time, an illegal endangered wildlife trade has developed in Vietnam, linked to international smuggling operations, which depletes the rich genetic resources of the country through the export of rare animals and plants (see further Drollette 2000). Vietnamese banns on the exporting of some rare examples of flora and fauna, for example, have been helped by international cooperation against the illegal shipment and sale of these species. Australia cooperation has been helpful in this area (Kinh 1994). The CITES treaty in particular tries to restrict these flows globally: Trade in these wildlife products is restricted under the terms of the 1973 Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES), which bans international trade in some 900 animal and plant species in danger of extinction, including all tigers, great apes, and sea turtles, and many species of elephants, orchids, and crocodiles. CITES also restricts trade in some 29,000 additional species that are threatened by commerce; among them birdwing butterflies, parrots, black and stony corals, and some hummingbirds. CITES has shrunk the trade in many threatened species, including cheetahs, chimpanzees, crocodiles, and elephants. But the trafficking in these and other species continues, earning smugglers profits of $8 billion to $12 billion annually. Among the most coveted black market items are tigers and other large cats, rhinos, reptiles, rare birds, and botanical specimens. (Mastny & French 2002) A major network of illegal smuggling in endangered species has emerged in Southeast Asia, leading to a regional response. Through late 2005-2006, the ASEAN Wildlife Enforcement Network aimed 'to target traffickers and criminal syndicates in a region that accounts for a quarter of the global illegal wildlife trade' (Schuettler 2006). Timber production is a major industry in Vietnam, and the government has introduced laws requiring reforestation after logging. Unfortunately, these procedures are not yet fully regulated, while an estimated 7,000 hectares per year were logged illegally (Kinh 1994). A related problem has been fuel collection of wood from forest areas, which has gone beyond local use to collection for selling at village and town markets. The extension of electrical grids drawing power from hydro-electric power 21 produced by dams in North Vietnam has somewhat reduced this problem (Lansbury 1994, p14). Lastly, forest fires have been a serious threat to natural resources, with some 20-30,000 hectares burnt out each year (with peaks of up to 100,000 hectares being affected), usually due to accidental fires which get out of control, e.g. fires lit while clearing land (Kinh 1994). Aside from these specific problems, a wide range of other issues remain to be dealt with: over-exploitation of coral beds from the intertidal zone for lime manufacture, urban air pollution, and the need to preserve intact freshwater and marine ecologies (Kinh 1994). Thus by 2001 seabed fish reserves were 40% of those of the 1970s, and riverine fisheries had dropped by 80%, with extensive past damage to reefs and spawning grounds due to the use of dynamite and trawler fishing (Lam 2001). On this basis, the government moved for a time to support deep sea fishing, but soon had to set a cap of 1.8 million tons as an annual limit to avoid depletion of fish stocks (Lam 2001). In the long run, however, the government has suggested that fish farming and aquaculture are the only long term solution, and hoped to boost this area past the 35% of total production covered by these methods by offering credit and engaging in focused research projects (Lam 2001). Meanwhile, fisheries conservation was boosted by a $1.9 million donation by the Global Environmental Fund (GEF) and other agencies, from 2001 (Lam 2001). In the long term, Vietnam's forestry plan hoped create 6 million hectares of protected forests (there were only 1 million in the early 1990s), while creating of 11 million hectares of sustainable production forests, with timber being one of the main areas of foreign investment (Janssen 1991). From 1998 a 12-year Reforestation program was also initiated 'to being the process of natural forest and watershed rehabilitation, and to secure over time a sustainable wood supply for industry' (Dick & Son 2003). In general, these plans aim to greatly increase the forest cover of the country, which had been greatly reduced in last forty years. It is hoped to improve forestation from 278% up to 40% (in 1943, it had a forest cover of 60%, Huynh & Stengel 1993, p273). Current land use, of course, is regulated by the state, but the government allows the long-term lease of land to cater for foreign investment. It aims, however, to regulate environmental impacts, and to set effective guidelines for all investors, whether internal or international. Unfortunately, this has not entirely stopped illegal and poorly planned logging, or the processing of such timbres from less regulated countries such as Cambodia (see Lang & Chan 2005). Through 2002, timber industry ‘posted a turnover of 410 million dollars, a 20 million dollars increase on 2001’, with 1,200 agro-forestry enterprises in Vietnam (Xinhua 2003), but by 2006 the Vietnamese furniture industry was running of suitable wood and began importing from Brazil, with furniture exports rising from '219 million dollars in 2000 to 1.9 billion dollars' in 2006, with local plantations only coming up to full production in future years (Business News 2007). Within the cities of Vietnam there has also been a very strong emphasis on recycling (Lansbury 1994), with virtually all reusable items being sorted and then picked up from households. The Ministry of Science Technology and Environment in Vietnam had also developed a wide range of curriculum and educational packages at all levels to increase environmental awareness, and has run numerous workshops. It has also developed programs to hire local peoples to protect designated forest areas. It 22 sees international cooperation as crucial to the success of its environmental programs (Kinh 1994). Through 2004, $39.5 million was provided by the World Bank to support sustainable forest management, with the aim of supporting small-scale forest plantations on poorly stocked land (World Bank 2004b). From 2005 the Vietnam Environment Protection Agency (VEPA) also sought to regulate environmental impact within Vietnam's resource development, as well as strengthen environmental laws and new clean air initiatives within city environments. Although considerable progress had been made in all these areas, much more information needs to be collected on the Vietnamese ecology, and extensive research projects are essential if the outlined problems are to be solved alongside population growth and economic growth. Likewise, it seemed clear that the implementation of these national policies would need further commitments of staff and resources. International cooperation at all levels, whether with foreign governments, research groups or non-government-organisations (NGO's) need to be further encouraged. Though the legal framework has been well established, but its practical ability to enforce these rules remains limited. Vietnam therefore has also allowed a system of 'community complaints, a right guaranteed by Vietnamese law, in regulating the impacts of industry' with 'regulators, politicians and the media' all having played roles in environmental cases or compensation (DiGregorio 2005 following O'Rourke). In summary, its seems that Vietnam has combined an open market policy with an effort to protect its diverse and valuable ecology. That the Vietnamese government has been able to mobilise a range of human resources is partly due to its socialist legacy, but in the new age of privatisation and foreign capital, alongside wildcat logging, non-compliance and corruption, many of these government initiatives may be undermined (Phuong 1997). In summary, Vietnam has needed to urgently boost development while protecting a rich but fragile environment. From 2000, international agencies (including the Asian Development Bank and the World Bank) had allocated $2.4 billion in support of Vietnam's poverty reduction and development programs (M2 Presswire 2000), with recent addition funds of $320 million allocated through July 2004 (World Bank 2004a). Yet positive attitudes towards the environment will also have to be revived. As noted in a Vietnamese government report discussing modernisation trends in the 1990s which undermined traditional views of protecting the environment ((Huynh & Stengel 1993, p279). Environmental problems in the face of population growth, rapid investment and industrialisation are shared by most developing countries in the Indo-Pacific region, and are a major national and regional challenge. Regional cooperation on resources and environmental protection are also one avenue for aiding a more peaceful and sustainable environment in Southeast Asia. The ability of the culture of dialogue to effectively moderate behaviour and expectations in the South China Sea, either through ongoing multilateral dialogues, or through new regional initiatives which cooperate on less sensitive issues such as environmental, scientific research and eventually cooperative resource management (Lee 1999; Towsend-Gault 1998; Magno 1997). Water and river pollution remain a major challenge for most Southeast Asian countries (Elliott 2004, p185), even including 23 Singapore, which in large measure relies on reservoirs in nearby Malaysia. Likewise, the need to sustain access to fresh water and maintain food security in East Asia as a whole may be increasingly problematic through to 2015 (Dupont 2000), and is another area where Southeast Asia and China could collaborate more widely. However, with some partial exceptions, environmentally-based regionalism has been slow to develop and is far from comprehensive in Southeast Asia and even less so in East Asia as a whole. ASEAN states have begin to cooperate in areas such as the 1997 Regional Haze Action Plan (Rosenberg 1997) and to a lesser degree in cooperation over river usage, e.g. limited cooperation on the Mekong River water usage during dry seasons via the Mekong River Commission (which has some dialogue with PRC and Mynamar) and support for flood management from the Asian Development Bank (Elliott 2004, p191; Environment Custom Wire 2004a). From 2001 a Regional Roundtable began to chart a vision for an environmentally sustainable Southeast Asia in its ASEAN Vision 2020 agenda, with most countries signing onto aspects of Agenda 21 for sustainable development (Elliott 2004, p188). On this basis the ASEAN Ministerial Meeting on the Environment (AMME) meets every year (Elliott 2004, p189). Action plans formulated through 1998 and the Strategic Plan of Action on the Environment 1999-2004 (SPAE) called for ‘the strengthening of harmonized environmental standards, especially on ambient air and river water quality’, plans to protect coastal zones and marine environments, with a target year of 2010 (Elliott 2004, p190). However, ASEAN dialogue processes, its consensus approach and non-interference principles have meant that it is not strong in enforcing environmental policy (Elliott 2004, p197). Likewise, through 2007 plans have been laid to protect environmental and natural resources in the ASEAN region: There were also discussions on the Asean Heritage Parks Programme, Ascan Agreement on the Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources, Asean Centre for Biodiversity, as well as the Asean-ROK flagship project, "Restoration of Degraded Forest Ecosystem in Southeast Asian Tropical Regions Phase II". The meeting also involved the drafting of the Asean Framework Agreement on access to fair and equitable sharing of benefits arising from the utilisation of biological and genetic resources. The meeting continues today. The delegates will be working on the Ascan Regional Action Plan on Trade in Wild Fauna and Flora 2005-2010. There will also be discussions on the Asean Working Group Nature Conservation and Biodiversity's key activities to implement the Vientiane Action Plan 2004-2010. (Marilyn 2007) Other institutions which have sought some role in reducing environmental impact in the region include the Asian Development Bank, the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, the UNEP, the UNDP, and the Economic and Social Commission for Asian and the Pacific, ESCAP (Elliott 2004, p191). Yet key issues remain unresolved: thus the maxim of ‘user’ pays (or is taxed) for use natural resources is problematic in poorer societies, and in many cases poor land tenure systems and insecurity has mean that ‘peasant farmers and indigenous communities’ have no reason to reduce resource extraction from the lands they occupy or access (Elliott 2004, p193). Many of these agreements are voluntary, and only 24 partially funded and unevenly implemented. Regional environmental activism, via NGOs, INGO’s and local civil society, e.g. in Thailand and Indonesia, has begun to improve political will in this area, but is often focused on a particular issue that affects local livelihood or a particular resource (Elliott 2004, p196). 5. Conclusion: The Case for Layered Cooperation We can see, then, that transnational issues such as smuggling, arms and drug flows, and environmental issues have begun to be dealt with by regional and global organisations, but have not been addressed comprehensively. Likewise, the drug flows (opium, heroin, metamphetamines) out of what used to be called the Golden Triangle directly affects the people of Burma, Laos, Thailand, nearby areas in Southeast Asia, as well as flowing into Australian and some north American markets. The flows are linked to 'invisible' untaxed economies in the region, to illegal arms flows, and transnational criminal networks, as well instability in Myanmar. On this basis, illicit drug flows have funded turbulence within Burma, exacerbated border control issues with PRC and Thailand, and given ASEAN a major challenge which at present seem to be only slowly moderating (through 20012007). Nor has subtle pressure from ASEAN been able to greatly moderate military control of Myanmar’s government. With an army of around 400,000 supported by a nucleus of advanced PRC and Indian weapons purchases (Haacke 2006), the fate of Myanmar’s constitutional debate and political reforms process remains important and ASEAN and other neighbouring states. Other areas in the Indo-Pacific region where layered regional approaches might apply include the development of resource security in the South Pacific, the management and control of water and riverine resources in South Asia and Southeast Asia (especially Nepal, India, Bangladesh, nations along the Mekong River system, see Hassan 1991; Bengwayan 2000), and the international management of oil, gas, and maritime resources in contested areas of the South China Sea. These examples, including the shared environmental problems of Southeast Asia, the drug trade from the Golden ‘quadrangle’, regional environmental problems, and poorly regulated migration and worker flows show some of the 'on the ground' problems which occupy Indo-Pacific nations. As such, they indicate that many of these nations have rather different priorities to ‘great and developed’ nations such as Australia, the US or the European Union. They are also of direct interest to the trading and regional partners of the Indo-Pacific, indicating that further investment and research in these areas by countries such as Australia may be required. These problems will need to be met if the region is to become stable and prosperous in the 21st century. At present, there has been some limited progress in this area, but secure solutions within limited timeframes have not emerged. 25 5. Bibliography and Further Resources Resources The official Webpage of the United Nations International Drug Control Program (UNDCP) can be found at http://www.undcp.org/index.html A Webpage outlining the activities of CSCAP, the Council for Security Cooperation in the Asia Pacific will be found at http://aus-cscap.anu.edu.au The UNHCR (United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees) webpage will be found at http://www.unhcr.ch/cgi-bin/texis/vtx/home A range of data can be found via the United Nations Environment Programme, including the CITES convention on endangered wildlife, with one access point via http://www.unep.ch/ Further Reading BEYER, Chris et al "Responding to AIDS, Tuberculosis, Malaria, and Emerging Infectious Diseases in Burma: Dilemmas of Policy and Practice", Public Library of Science Medicine, 3 no. 10, October 2006, pp1733-1740 [Access via Infotrac Expanded Academic] Economist "Dirty Dealings, Myanmar", 26 May 2007, p42 [Access via Infotrac Expanded Academic] EMERY, James “Thailand's World-Class Antidrug Program”, World & I, 18 no. 2, February 2003, pp56-63 [Access via Ebsco Database] GIBSON, Richard M. & HASEMAN, John B. “Prospects for Controlling Narcotics Production and Trafficking in Myanmar”, Contemporary Southeast Asia, 25 no. 1, April 2003, pp1-19 [Access via Ebsco Database] HLAING, Kyaw Yin et al. 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