Towards a New Victorian Flood Management Strategy Nick Ronan Department of Sustainability and Environment 8 Nicholson Street, East Melbourne, Vic 3002 AUSTRALIA E-mail: nick.ronan@dse.vic.gov.au Abstract This is an exploratory issues paper, produced to stimulate thinking and discussion about future directions in managing runoff – with a focus on flooding – in the context of current and emerging issues. The previous Victorian Flood Management Strategy was produced in 1998. Much has changed since then. The Department of Sustainability and Environment has recently approved preparation of an Urban Drainage Strategy for Victoria. These two arenas will be addressed in the one, integrated process, with the objective of producing a new, overall strategy in 2008. This paper discusses key new issues, challenges and opportunities that have arisen since 1998, and discusses the scope and context of the review from a number of perspectives. The effects of climate change on flooding will be a prominent issue, and the paper calls for a more integrated approach to managing flooding as part of the continuous runoff spectrum. The paper raises a lot of issues that merit consideration in the course of preparing the strategy, with a particular focus on those that are part of the water cycle. 1. INTRODUCTION The current Victoria Flood Management Strategy was published in 1998 with the primary objective of paving the way for the allocation of floodplain management responsibilities to catchment management authorities. Overall, implementation of the strategy has gone well, with the establishment of floodplain management staff in all the non-metropolitan catchment management authorities and transfer of flood data to those organizations. However, as with most long term strategies, some of the assumptions underpinning the intent of the current strategy have not materialized, and several unexpected developments have occurred. This paper discusses the current outlook for flood management in Victoria in the broad context of progress to date, along with new and emerging issues and opportunities. Specifically, it focuses on the hydrological aspects of flooding, rather than the emergency management arrangements and other related issues. This is because the emergency management arenas have undergone considerable systematic review and renewal in recent times at both a state and national level, and will be well addressed by other papers at this conference. The paper explores some of the key questions that need answering in order to inform a new strategy. To get the ball rolling, it is useful to consider some of the expectations that have changed since the last strategy was produced, as well as some of the unexpected changes that have eventuated. 1.1 Changed Expectations The most significant change to expectations since 1998 has been financial. In line with its campaign commitments for the state election in September 1999, the newly elected Bracks Government removed the general property rating powers of catchment management authorities soon after it took office. Subsequently, these authorities have received base-level funding through the Department of Sustainability and Environment, approximately in accordance with the revenue they expected to raise from property rates. Other state funds have been made available on a merit basis, supported by Commonwealth grants programs, and in recent times, through the environmental contributions provided to government by Victorian water authorities. Towards A New Victorian Flood Strategy Ronan Another significant change was the impact of the 1997 Victoria Planning Provisions on land use planning and subdivision from a flood risk management point of view. While the establishment of the Victoria Planning Provisions was noted in the 1998 flood strategy, the amount of activity and some of the considerable challenges that eventuated were not anticipated. The new provisions enabled authorities to depict land as subject to flooding far more directly and easily than had been possible under the Water Act, 1989. Five key challenges arose. a. Authorities needed to allay property owner fears that making flood risk information public via planning schemes might compromise property value in the market. b. Budget priorities had to change to free-up funds for the detailed floodplain analyses needed in areas that had not been mapped in the past. Further, agencies such as Melbourne Water had to manage a suite of large and complex contracts to meet the needs in a timely fashion. c. Many municipalities remained sceptical that the information was of sufficient public interest to necessitate amending their planning schemes as a matter of priority once it was available. d. Municipal planning staff and property owners and developers needed guidelines and practice notes to enable efficient and well-informed decision making. A third significant unexpected event was the extent and severity of the ensuing drought, and the associated diversion of public interest and concern away from flooding to factors like extensive water shortages and devastating bushfires. While this may be perceived as having taken some of the pressure off flooding at a time of substantial system change, it can also be perceived as having resulted in under-funding and a lack of progress in important areas. 1.2 Unexpected Changes A well-worn adage advises that the only certainty in life is that things will change. Looking back over the last ten years, a number of important factors have indeed changed or developed in unexpected ways. These provide a new context in which to review progress and set new directions. Global warming, climate change, climate variability and sea level rise are widely acknowledged as issues of significant human concern that are likely to have enormous consequences on domestic and international politics and policies. Global shortages of food and potable water remain major challenges for those committed to achieving the Millennium Development Goals. In particular, concerns about fresh water are now greater than they were in 2000, exacerbated by continuing world population growth and rising standards of living in the developing world. The use of fossil fuels has been identified as the most virulent aspect of human influence on global temperature and climate change, with energy management now heading the list of priorities for new ways of managing just about everything we do. Collectively, the above factors have led to new ways of looking at water. Flood waters have been frequently referred to as “wasted” resources. Domestic waste water is widely seen as having value for garden watering and other secondary uses. The potential for domestic re-use of high-grade treated effluent is being seriously debated in parts of Australia. People are installing rainwater tanks and carting water around their homes in buckets to minimize waste. In Melbourne, the daily average water use in 2006/07 was down to 303 litres per person per day, a level which has reportedly not been seen for over 60 years – 300 litres in 1945/46. Social attitudes are very different to ten years ago. 1.3 A New Century – a New Outlook This new set of circumstances begs for a new direction. The challenge is to ensure that any realignment is productive in terms of the benefits that are likely to be delivered. This conference is proceeding when revision of the strategy is still very much a work in progress. The future directions and priorities are yet to be agreed. Views from stakeholders and experts are still being sought. Potential integration with other aspects of the water cycle is still being evaluated. 5th Flood Management Conference Warrnambool, 9 - 12 October 2007 2 of 12 Towards A New Victorian Flood Strategy Ronan It is clear that significant and seminal changes have occurred in the socio-political environment, along with a shift in fundamental social attitudes to natural resources. But there is also a sense of timing about this revision. It is now the first decade of both a new century and a new millennium. The challenge is ripe – to take the best of our science and experience from the past and apply it to a rapidly changing future in ways that provide us with the greatest resilience to future disturbances. 2. THE RUNOFF SPECTRUM This paper uses the word “runoff” in the sense of surface flows, as distinct from overall catchment “yield” which is conventionally used to include both surface and subsurface contributions. The fact that there are significant interactions between surface and subsurface hydrology is noted, but is not necessary to explore in the current context. Runoff occurs when the rate of precipitation exceeds the infiltration / absorption capacity of the receiving surface and the build-up of surface moisture begins to flow along gravitational gradients. Flooding occurs when the quantity of runoff exceeds the combined capacity of depressions, gutters, pipes, channels, creek beds and other “designated” conveyance or storage systems. Use of the term flooding is strongly associated with events of unusual or exceptional magnitude. There is a wide spectrum between not enough and too much rainfall, and in turn, between not enough and too much runoff. Flooding clearly occurs down at the “too much” end. Further, flooding is regarded as “too much” in terms of quite anthropocentric or human perspectives – especially related to protecting human life, property and other interests. Floodplains and wetlands that require inundation for their effective functioning have only recently been recognised in water allocation policies. A core issue is whether we treat “flooding” as a separate issue in the water cycle or as part of the much wider, variously integrated runoff spectrum. The answer has implications for many technical issues, including data collection, research, innovation, new technology, policies, regulations and – especially – for institutional arrangements and how effectively they work. Further, and even more importantly, the answer has potentially far-reaching implications for social attitudes to water and awareness of how individuals are inter-connected to some of the outcomes. Human beings shelter from rainfall and “manage” runoff in various ways throughout their lives. In historical terms, the rainwater tank is a resonant symbol of colonising Australia – as reflected in the water-tank rolling scenes in the closing ceremony of the Sydney Olympic Games in 2004. However, the development of reticulated water supply and sewerage systems gradually removed the need for domestic self-sufficiency in many areas. Centralised service provision became the urban norm, along with roadside drainage and, eventually, obligatory connection of roof runoff to urban stormwater drains for new buildings and significant building extensions. Developments in urban water management thus progressed to a point where water became a switchon, switch-off convenience – largely out of sight and out of mind. It gushed forth when you turned on the tap and disappeared when you pulled the plug. It carried away our wastes, watered our gardens, entertained our children and cleaned our driveways and cars. It worked for us in a very efficient and utilitarian manner. Except for flooding, which has continued to plague various low lying areas at various times, occasionally to a notorious extent. And, at a micro-scale, cleaning roof gutters in advance of heavy rain is still as a necessary, albeit inconvenient, duty to avoid damage to buildings. 2.1 The Add-On Bits Having established centralized system approaches for water supply, sewerage and, to various extents, drainage, we were left with two renegade problems – pollution and flooding – both associated with runoff. These have translated into largely separate systems of analysis, research, development and action, more or less bolted-on beside the centralised functions of water supply, sewerage and drainage. The corresponding issues relating to septic tanks and treatment plant discharges are also 5th Flood Management Conference Warrnambool, 9 - 12 October 2007 3 of 12 Towards A New Victorian Flood Strategy Ronan ongoing issues, but cannot be discussed further in this paper. On the pollution front, trade waste licensing greatly reduced the export of toxic pollutants to waterways – albeit with the result that sewage is now more costly to treat because of its toxic constituents. This was followed with a whole raft of measures intended to counteract pollution from non-point sources. Litter laws and gross pollutant traps, along with more sophisticated systems such as wetlands gradually achieved formal acceptance and became integrated into planning for new stormwater systems. Water Sensitive Urban Design emerged as a new discipline, and best practice application of the principles became a pre-requisite for many development approval processes. Flood management was also evolving, along with greatly improved knowledge about energy dynamics in river systems, and the futility of concrete channels from an environmental and aesthetic perspective. Retarding basins and energy dissipation structures, along with levee banks and retaining walls were key structural measures employed. On the non-structural front, the realisation that prevention was far cheaper than cure eventually made it compulsory – or highly desirable – to plan for flood flows in addition to street drainage in all new development areas. However, the key accountabilities for stormwater runoff are still significantly disaggregated: The Environment Protection Authority is accountable for the pollution issues associated with stormwater under the Environmental Protection Act, 1970. Floodplain Management Authorities (including Melbourne Water) and the Department of Sustainability and Environment are accountable for floodplain management under the Water Act, 1989. Municipalities are accountable for street and property drainage issues under the Local Government Act, 1989. and for regulating the development of land under the Planning and Environment Act, 1987. Property owners are responsible for preventing stormwater from entering the sewerage network – where one exists – and for preventing pollution. However, they are also free to harvest, store and use rainwater in everything from small dams to large and small tanks. Water Agencies are responsible for reticulated water supply and sewerage systems and, to various extents, for regional drainage systems – most notably in the case of Melbourne Water. The above responsibilities all relate to hydrologic / hydraulic issues. And notably, the functional separation described is a long-recognised challenge. Integrated approaches have been trialled in a great many projects and programs and have been the subject of many dissertations. Integrated water cycle management and integrated catchment management have evolved as quasi disciplines that focus on collaborative decision-making as a means of achieving better outcomes. Where does this lead us? What are the implications for how we manage excess runoff and its issues in the future? What has changed, if anything, to suggest we can do things differently? The next section explores these issues. 2.2 Water-proof Glue? Integrated water cycle management could be called “boffin talk” for good teamwork round the tap. Good teamwork requires some sort of cohesive force to bind players together. Without this binding agent, team work becomes hard work, can slow things down, and may not yield the expected benefits. In teamwork, nearly all the important issues are people ones. Policies, laws, systems, technologies and economics are not the core – they are the tools or artefacts. In order to assess the extent to which, for example, integrated water cycle management will work, we have to consider all the people involved or implicated, along with their friends and families. It will only work if there is some tangible benefit for the majority of individuals in the community involved. Recent, tangible experience of severe drought and water shortages right across the country have created a common concern in the community. For the first time in many decades, major urban populations have been subjected to severe water restrictions. People have been installing rainwater tanks, diverting grey water to garden uses, and carting buckets of water to sustain valued plants and garden beds. City folk have been getting their hands “wet” dealing with water issues they previously 5th Flood Management Conference Warrnambool, 9 - 12 October 2007 4 of 12 Towards A New Victorian Flood Strategy Ronan thought very little about. Country folk have been battling harder – in some cases against insurmountable odds – to stretch their ingenuity and meagre resources to survive despite the pervasive drought. Realistically, though, water shortages alone do not bind us together in a newly energized commitment to integrated water cycle management. The metaphorical glue is still water-soluble. A couple of very wet years could easily move the focus on to other issues. Aussies are accustomed to vigorously battling through the hard times, with cheerful confidence that things will eventually improve. However, deeper concerns about climate change and the multitude of consequences for life on the planet may well provide a more enduring glue. The effects and side-effects are predicted to be longlasting, and very slow to respond to changes in human activity. The global warming phenomenon has weakened universal confidence that traditional economic development is the answer to human problems. The issue is prominent at the highest levels of international politics, albeit not prominent enough for some. Debates about under-reacting versus over-reacting rage vigorously in many political, scientific and economic arenas. In a nutshell, current predictions suggest that Victoria will experience an overall reduction in average annual rainfall, accompanied by an increase in the potential for more intense events. Local downpours with associated stormwater flooding are forecast to increase in frequency. This presumably means that periods of prolonged light drizzle and steady showers will significantly decrease in frequency. Intuitively, this seems reasonable if we have a warmer and hence more turbulent atmosphere. But it does not bode well for those interested in runoff management – at all scales from the water supply catchment down to the “rainwater tank behind the chook shed”. The outlook at the time of writing this paper is that climate change is becoming more certain and less likely to be reversible within future decades. In natural resource terms, the implications for water resources, biodiversity, food production and so forth could be catastrophic – some predict they will be. Recent indications are that global warming, melting ice and sea level rise are potentially far more serious than concluded in the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Total inundation of large areas of the earth’s land surface is a frightening prospect. The above arguments suggest that we should not dismiss old attempts at integrated management when we are considering the current future. Climate change is very likely to provide the “water-proof glue” required to engage communities in a common purpose in ways most of us have not experienced in our life-times. How this will play out is uncertain – and speculation is better left in the hands of the futurists and social scientists. This paper merely contends that the future is likely to be different from the past in fundamental ways that will meaningfully improve the practicality of integrated management. In the “flood strategy” context, we are faced with growing climate change concerns, and potential exacerbation of both water shortages and storm / flood damage risks. Double exposure? Soaring energy costs and sea level rise? Quadruple exposure? These are central themes around which we need to construct the future strategy – not side issues which can be left for the future. On this basis, it is contended that we need to thoroughly re-assess the existing knowledge in the light of new scenarios and develop approaches that will serve future generations as well as we can possibly devise. In doing so, our historical reliance on traditional institutional arrangements and centralized systems as a means of delivering water services should be open to re-evaluation. The current outlook clearly holds a greatly enhanced potential for engaging whole communities in integrated solutions. This outlook is founded on the rapidly growing “climate change” imperative to take prudent action and address “new millennium” issues with new millennium approaches. Returning to the “team” analogy, the ball, the rules and the playing field have all changed quite significantly. It seems unlikely that we can change them back. The obvious conclusion is that we need to change the game plan. The principal challenge is to identify the right changes – especially given the fact that none of us knows anyone who has actually played this new game before. 3. THE RUNOFF BALANCE What’s in the balance and what’s at stake here? Views differ according to past experience, technical 5th Flood Management Conference Warrnambool, 9 - 12 October 2007 5 of 12 Towards A New Victorian Flood Strategy Ronan awareness and jurisdictional circumstances. Figure 1 illustrates one way of looking at the balance between predominantly traditional ways of managing excess runoff and potentially newer, more sustainable approaches. The “More Traditional” side of the balance depicts some of the results that occur as a consequence of managing the symptoms (too much runoff) at the end-of-pipe, or downstream scale. The “More Sustainable” side depicts some of the opportunities that could be achieved by better management of runoff at the source, in terms of retention, infiltration and re-use. 2 1 0 1 2 More Sustainable More Traditional Treat the Cause Treat the Symptoms Smaller drains Less Flooding More Water Security Cooler Streets Healthier Rivers Wetter Soils More Drought Resilience More Climate Resilience Greater Social Equity Lower Energy Use More economic synergy Bigger Drains More Flooding Less Water Security Hotter Streets Sicker Rivers Drier Soils More Drought Vulnerability More Climate Vulnerability Low Social Equity Higher Energy Use More economic discord Figure 1: The balance between more traditional and more sustainable runoff management We know that traditional methods (focussed on efficient disposal and diversion) have magnified some of the problems, as illustrated by the following: More efficient surface drainage means less infiltration, larger runoff volumes and exacerbated problems downstream; More efficient drainage also means higher flow velocities, which increase particulate transport capacity, exacerbating the movement of pollutants; Detention of flood flows for later slow release is known to adversely affect downstream waterway stability and biological health, as well as downstream flooding in some situations; Draining low-lying pastures to make them more productive during wet years has made them less productive during times of drought, as well as exacerbating flooding further downstream; Re-zoning and development of flood-prone land has yielded profits to the vendor and passed the risk on to purchasers for no material consideration – ultimately producing demands for public funding to abate the accumulating private risks. We also know that some of the more sustainable approaches have achieved or been shown to have the potential to achieve better outcomes. The following examples illustrate the point: Water Sensitive Urban Design at both streetscape and allotment scale have been shown to reduce the export of pollutants such as nitrogen, phosphorous and suspended solids; The same measures have also been shown mitigate the effects of re-development on flood hydrographs; 5th Flood Management Conference Warrnambool, 9 - 12 October 2007 6 of 12 Towards A New Victorian Flood Strategy Ronan Rainwater harvesting and re-use has a double advantage of reducing demands on mains supply, and reducing runoff volumes and associated pollution loads; Infiltration and aquifer re-charge are both an opportunity and a threat on the pollution spectrum, but certainly can assist in managing surface runoff volumes; Using rainwater to improve soil moisture to support vigorous tree growth in urban areas is promoted as a counter-measure for the “heat island” effect that is resulting in increased energy consumption for air conditioning. So where does the balance lie? Is there a robust opportunity to manage runoff better at the source and thereby reduce other costs at the downstream end? What would be required? What has stopped us in the past? Figure 2 illustrates the fulcrum issue. A Retention and reuse of rainwater across the catchment (WSUD +++) B How much of A is required to achieve how much of B ? Cost of implementation % coverage achievable Permanency of benefits Efficiency? Reduced requirement for pollution / flood mitigation works in the valley Reduction in risk Community acceptance Savings on mitigation works Effectiveness? Figure 2: The question of effectiveness between source management and “end of pipe” solutions. If we did everything possible at the source end, across buildings, allotments and streetscapes, would the individual changes accumulate to a tangible reduction in the needs for flood mitigation works and other pollution abatement measures further down the system? And, if so, by how much? Enough to buffer the effects of urban consolidation? Enough to buffer some of the effects of climate change? These questions will have to be addressed in the course of informing the new strategy. Many of the issues have been looked at to various extents in the past, but from different perspectives. For example, rainwater tanks have been analysed thoroughly for their potential to reduce water demand, and even to reduce the export of nutrients in runoff. WSUD technologies have been analysed thoroughly for their potential to reduce pollution loads entering receiving waters such as Port Phillip Bay. However, most of the individual opportunities have been marginal in terms of cost-benefit or practicality when considered on their own in pursuit of a specific objective. The aggregate assessment of multiple synergistic actions to achieve a spectrum of related objectives is more daunting, and deserves further analysis. Where does the balance actually lie between the source management spectrum and end-of-pipe mitigation spectrum? How does this play out from an economic perspective? How does it play out from an individual property owner / occupier perspective? How does it play out from an institutional perspective? How does it interact with other factors in the water cycle such as sewage overflows and septic systems or re-use / third pipe proposals and supply augmentations? And, further, how does the answer integrate with energy considerations, higher temperatures and increased evapotranspiration? 5th Flood Management Conference Warrnambool, 9 - 12 October 2007 7 of 12 Towards A New Victorian Flood Strategy Ronan The above discussion of potential trade-offs has focussed on urban runoff and stormwater flooding, mostly because of the greater density of impervious surfaces, risk exposure, building activity and other factors associated with urban areas. This does not mean that riverine flooding is any less of an issue, and the strategy will specifically address riverine flooding – of both urban and rural areas – in the context of future directions and priorities. 4. A JIGSAW PUZZLE This section discusses some of the wider contextual issues that also require analysis and digestion in order to inform future thinking on management of runoff and flooding. It is an understatement to say that water is a complicated subject. Conversely, it is an overstatement to say that the water cycle (sea → atmosphere → land → sea) is a simple concept. We can make it look simple on a piece of paper or a presentation slide, but that doesn’t reflect how it actually works in the vast array of particular circumstances that are known to exist at the mechanism and pathway level. The jigsaw puzzle metaphor is also an over-simplification. A better analogy may be a multi-layered puzzle, with no picture on the box to indicate what the finished product should look like, and a lot of pieces that definitely do not seem to fit together at all. Further, there are a lot of seemingly amorphous and transparent pieces that could go anywhere. Via informal interviews and discussions arranged during the first phase of the flood strategy revision, many people have provided individual views on a wide range of subjects from a stimulating range of perspectives. And, in line with the puzzle metaphor, a lot of the pieces collected in this process definitely did not seem to fit together – providing a valuable stimulus for further thinking, analysis and discussion. 4.1 Accountabilities or Scrambled Eggs As noted earlier in Section 2.1, for historical reasons, formal accountabilities for provision of services related to the management of runoff and mitigation of flooding are both complicated and variable – a bit “scrambled”, one could say. To better illustrate this, a few terms need defining. “Drainage” will refer to the provision of systems, urban or rural, formal or informal, for management of small to moderate quantities of excess surface water, irrespective of its origin – in all situations that are regarded as “normal” – say, up to the magnitude of a one in five year average recurrence interval event. Irrigation drainage, salinity drainage and street drainage are common examples. A new word – “floodage” – will be used to mean the provision of equivalent systems, urban or rural, formal or informal, for management of larger quantities of excess runoff and / or other forms of undesirable inundation. This gives “floodage” a contextual meaning similar to the words “drainage” and “sewerage”. An on-line search of international dictionaries showed no listings for the word “floodage”, so the risk of misappropriation is acceptably small! “Floodage” is used to represent the elements of flood management that are specifically to do with assessing, mitigating or accommodating the surface flows, as distinct from the many other important activities involved in “flood management”. “Local” means neighbourhood scale. By conventional application in the Melbourne area, “local” refers to “catchment neighbourhoods” that are not greater than about 60 hectares in area1. The same broad concept can be implied in non-metropolitan towns and cities. In the rural context, “local” is used in the sense of any properties in a particular catchment locality or neighbourhood, less constrained by the size of the catchment. “Trunk” refers to drainage lines and flood paths that service areas larger than the “local” scale referred to above. “Main Drains” under the old MMBW Act, 1958 are a pertinent example. “Trunk” hence 1 This stems from a circa 1922 agreement between the then Melbourne and Metropolitan Board of Works and the Councils that constituted the Metropolis of Melbourne at that time. 5th Flood Management Conference Warrnambool, 9 - 12 October 2007 8 of 12 Towards A New Victorian Flood Strategy Ronan represents the scale between “local” and “whole catchment” where this is relevant. “Regional” is used largely in accordance with the ten catchment management “regions” in Victoria, but also meaning a scale that is bigger than “trunk” where this is relevant. At the macro scale, regional generally includes whole catchments or groups of catchments at the sub-state scale. “Urban” and “rural” will be used in their conventional senses. Table 1 shows the primary or “lead” accountabilities for various aspects of the water cycle in Victoria, as perceived by the author – acknowledging that opinions on some of the detailed content will differ. The focus is on the main hydrologic activity areas. The table illustrates the general spread of operational functions and accountabilities, and reveals some of the gaps and inconsistencies. The fact that the arrangements for drainage and floodage do NOT echo any aspects of the continuous runoff spectrum discussed in Section 2 is an important point. It is clear that the arrangements are somewhat complicated – hence the “scrambled eggs” metaphor in the heading. This current complexity is a result of past history, and, as such, must be respected. However, it certainly impedes the articulation of a more integrated approach to the runoff spectrum. Table 1 Leading Accountabilities for Various Functions for different Areas in Victoria Generic Function Urban Drainage Urban Floodage Rural Drainage Rural Floodage Irrigation Drainage Salinity Drainage Septic tanks Sewerage Point Source Runoff Pollution Non-pt Source Runoff Pollution Irrigation Farm Dams Small Farm Dams Rainwater Tanks Re-Use Allocation of Responsibilities Port Phillip & Westernport Other Regions Region Local Trunk Regional Local Trunk Regional Councils MWC MWC Councils Councils ?? Councils MWC MWC Councils Councils CMAs Various MWC MWC Various CMAs CMAs Various MWC MWC Various CMAs CMAs PLOs SRW SRW PLOs RWAs ?? State Policy DSE DSE DSE DSE DSE PLOs ?? ?? PLOs Various ?? DSE Councils RWC EPA na RWC EPA na MWC EPA Councils NMUs EPA na NMUs EPA na NMUs EPA EPA DSE EPA Various MWC EPA EPA MWC / SRW na DSE Councils CMAs RWCs CMAs MWC / SRW PLOs Councils DPI RWCs DSE DSE na PLOs na na DSE PLOs na na PLOs na na DSE PLOs PLDO DSE / DHS PLOs PLDO DSE / DHS DSE, DHS MWC: Melbourne Water EPA: Environment Protection Authority DSE: Dept of Sustainability & Environment DHS: Dept of Human Services DPCD: Dept Planning & Community Development DPI: Dept of Primary Industry MDBC: Murray Darling Basin Commission RWC: Retail Water Company RWA: Rural Water Agency NMU: Non-metropolitan Urban Water Agency CMA: Catchment Management Authority PLO: Private Land Owner PLDO: Private Land Developer / Operator The inconsistencies become further evident on examining the rigor of the accountabilities shown in Table 1. In many cases, the accountabilities are broadly implied, or derived from various policy statements or understood to exist by popular convention or historical precedent. The shaded boxes provide pertinent examples. The “Various” boxes provide further examples. Inconsistencies abound. 5th Flood Management Conference Warrnambool, 9 - 12 October 2007 9 of 12 Towards A New Victorian Flood Strategy Ronan For example, in relation to “floodage”, the role of floodplain management authorities including Melbourne Water is clearly set out in the Water Act, 1989, whereas that of Councils is not. On the other hand, Councils, who provide a wide range of on-ground drainage services, do so on the basis of a one-word reference in the Local Government Act, 1989, whereas catchment management authorities, who have more explicitly described “regional drainage” functions under Part 10, Division 3 of the Water Act, 1989, are rarely in a position to exercise them. Referring back to the “team” analogy, all the organisations identified above are high quality players in their own right. Further, very significant achievements have been made in many of the “positions on the field”. There is no point in blaming the players. In addition, the evidence of wide participation in collaborative projects and approaches indicates that it is not just a matter of better teamwork. Further, there is little point in blaming any of the managers of the various “departments” that make up the metaphorical sporting club. They are all doing their best according to their position descriptions and discretionary powers. So, could the issue be with the overall strategy or approach or campaign? This is a most important question, given that a new one is being prepared. What changes should the new strategy contemplate for the responsibilities of the different “departments” and “field positions”? Is there any evidence that the changes could make things better? Would any other factors also have to change? Who would this affect? Would support be wide enough? 4.2 Finance or Chook Raffles To generalise, finance is always a limitation. There is never enough of it to cover all the things we would like to achieve. And there is always difficulty in sharing the available funds across all the areas of need. So some long-forgotten sporting club invented the “chook raffle”. It worked well, and the underlying principle has been extended into wider usage – even as far as (to really stretch the analogy) running incentive systems and grants programs, which have been invaluable in facilitating progress in a great many otherwise unaffordable areas. However, from a pragmatic perspective, reliable funding is essential to deliver reliable outcomes. And the timescale of funding reliability must match the timescale of achieving the outcomes. Conversely, there is little point in proposing a tug-boat strategy on a shoe-string budget. Four key challenges are discussed below. The first challenge is that the costs and benefits associated with the services provided are a complex mix of public and private “goods”. Further, some of the costs and benefits are at least reasonably tangible, while others are not – and some of these “others” are of considerable importance. This necessitates a “public good” approach to evaluating financial issues. A balanced strategy should articulate principles for dealing with costs and benefits, both tangible and intangible, in terms of both the private and public domains. A second challenge is the scarcity of closed loops. There are relatively few circumstances in which the costs and benefits of particular decisions are internalised in the one set of accounts. For example, the owner who develops floodprone land for residential purposes without mitigating all the flood risk enjoys the profit from that development but passes on the costs of flood risk to numerous purchasers – usually for little if any material consideration. This usually results in the public purse (via taxes, rates etc) ultimately being asked to pay for the works required to mitigate the flood risk, to the benefit of the local individuals who are understandably devastated in the wake of a significant flood. Another example is that the benefits of some decisions such as approving a rezoning or subdivision of floodprone land (more business activity, more rating revenue etc) are realised by a different “entity” – such as a municipality – to that which will probably have to bear most of the costs of future mitigation works or measures – such as a floodplain management authority or a state government. A third challenge revolves around the diffusion of risk, accountability and responsibility, along with the realisation that we can’t predict where or when the next flood will occur, and, even if we could, we can’t prevent it. The costs of action are immediate and tangible, while the benefits are more nebulous and harder to account for. To satisfy transparency requirements, the various players must resort to detailed consultation, elaborate priority setting models and complicated benefit-cost analyses – and hope that the funds will eventually be allocated from the potential sources. To some extent, this 5th Flood Management Conference Warrnambool, 9 - 12 October 2007 10 of 12 Towards A New Victorian Flood Strategy Ronan embodies overlaps with the first two themes discussed above. The fourth challenge for the strategy is to deal with financial issues and institutional arrangements in a way that is consistent with policy – at a number of levels. For example, there is an Inter-Governmental Agreement between the Municipal Association of Victoria and the Victorian Government. Essentially, this agreement provides that the state will not impose further obligations on councils without providing appropriate resources. Another issue is housing affordability. There are many others. It is prudent to accept that a new strategy must pragmatically integrate with other areas of key policy influence if it is to have any chance of making a difference. On the commercial side, it is worth noting that the insurance industry is working to develop greater transparency about flood insurance, which has been a vexed issue for many years. The issue of whether or not a particular allotment or building is flood-prone is likely to result in whether or not it can be insured against flood in the future – according to a common definition of flood and flood risk that will be acceptable to the international re-insurance industry. This will raise the bar on the quality and availability of data on flood risks. Given the current gaps and inconsistencies in the data across Australia, the Insurance Council of Australia is evaluating a proposal to do a first cut analysis using a uniform and robust, albeit approximate methodology. Could this result in different sets of information being referenced for insurance versus planning and development purposes? The new strategy will need to take these issues into account. If commercial interests and considerations relating to flood risks continue to grow, so will the need for greater consistency in risk assessment methods, timeliness of disclosure of results and transparency in property dealing documentation. In turn, this will demand a greater level of certainty in funding and significant clarification in some of the institutional arrangements. Better to be aware of these issues in advance than to be caught unawares in the future. 4.3 The Individual Speaks Loudly In a democratic society, people are the great leveller. It is essential to consider the overall community implications of any course of action. However, final decisions are often more affected by the extreme effects than the overall average. Who are the biggest winners and losers? How will inequalities be minimised or mitigated? What are the compelling benefits of participation at the individual level? The impact of flooding on individuals, as well as the impact of various management approaches is a crucial issue that the strategy must address. It adds another layer to the puzzle – another aspect that must be integrated into the “whole” approach. While space prohibits further discussion in this paper, the issue needs to be raised. In the sporting club analogy, impacts and benefits for the different “departments” (ie agencies) , the many different “players” AND all the individual “members” must be regarded as equally important. “It’s for the greater good of the club” is generally not a sufficient answer to the individual question “what’s in it for me?” 4.4 The Environment Joins In At both the source catchment end and the receiving waters end, the environment is a common theme in the runoff spectrum. And, as illustrated in earlier sections, some of the major issues are often managed independently of others. Progress is better in some field positions than in others. But where are we heading with this third bottom line? A common agreement on goals and objectives and how they flow through all the different structures in the strategy will need to be set out. An integrated “all-of-runoff” approach to the strategy will greatly facilitate this, but many of the details still need to be developed. 5. OTHER AGENDAS = HEAVY TRAFFIC Thus far, the paper has focussed on a broad, helicopter view of the runoff spectrum, which, in the early work on issues, emerged as having the greatest potential for fruitful re-assessment. However, 5th Flood Management Conference Warrnambool, 9 - 12 October 2007 11 of 12 Towards A New Victorian Flood Strategy Ronan before concluding, it is appropriate to mention some of the other issues and initiatives that have also been identified and will need to be appropriately addressed in the new strategy. The author welcomes any suggestions or comments on this list of any additions to it. Urban Drainage Strategy (DSE) Flood Warning Service Plan Implementation (VFWAC) State Flood Website Initiative (GBCMA) Best Practice Manual Development (DSE) Victorian Framework for Emergency Services (DoJ) Victoria Planning Provisions – Clause 56 – Further Developments (DPCD) Climate Change / Variability & Energy Predicaments (DP) Water Ownership / Trading / Scarcity / Politics (DSE) Water Sensitive Urban Design (Various) Rainwater Tanks & Runoff Harvesting, Storage, Treatment and Re-use (various); Sustainability & resilience thinking (evolution of ESD); Review of Gippsland Floods (OESC) Second Generation 5-Star (DPCD) Flood Response Plan & Awareness Strategy (SES) Levee Management Issues in Rural Victoria (DSE) Environmental Flood Release Strategy (DSE) Review of Municipal Emergency Management Plans & Flood Sub-plans – (DoJ) Rural Drainage Issues (CMAs) Port Phillip and Westernport Flood Management and Drainage Strategy (MWC) Clear Water Program (MWC, EPA, MAV, SIAV) Metropolitan Water Industry Structure Review (Victorian Government) The above list is not exhaustive, and is likely to grow rather than diminish over the coming months. The challenge is to collaborate and cooperate, navigate well, and avoid traffic jams and collisions. Many people will help in this process. 6. CONCLUSIONS A public draft of a revised Victoria Drainage / Flood Management Strategy is planned for release in mid to late 2008. There are a lot of issues that need to be addressed. It is likely that some issues will be resolved in this process, while others may be recommended for further work along specific lines. The point of this paper is that the plan for future action should take an integrated view of the runoff spectrum in the context of a changing global outlook. It should exploit as many synergies or commonalities as possible on the one hand, and remove as many road blocks as possible on the other. It is hoped that an “all-in” approach will deal with some of the “side issues” which hamper progress but are not significant enough in their own right to address. Comments, suggestions and queries from readers and conference participants are eagerly sought and should be sent to the author at the e-mail address shown on the first page. 7. DISCLAIMER The views and terminology in this paper reflect the professional perspectives of the author, recently stimulated by diverse conversations with a large number of expert practitioners. They in no way reflect the views or policies of either the Victorian Government or the Department of Sustainability and Environment, who have commissioned the revision of the state’s flood strategy. 5th Flood Management Conference Warrnambool, 9 - 12 October 2007 12 of 12