River Study – Power Station, Baturaja, South Sumatera Geoindo CONSORTIUM MALAKOFF CORPORATION BERHAD, TOYOTA TSUSHO CORPORATION AND HANSON ENERGY LUBUK BATANG, BATURAJA, OGAN KOMERING ULU, SOUTH SUMATERA, INDONESIA RIVER STUDY AT OGAN RIVER – PHASE 1 REPORT 1 HYDROLOGY AND FLOOD STUDY REVISION HISTORY Revision Date Description 00 20th December 2013 Initial Issue 01 13th January 2014 - Revise Consortium’s name Revise Point. 3.8 Review / Approval Signatures Prepared by Reviewed by Approved by Kurniayati Adang Herdhyana Bob Bacciarelli Geodetic Engineer Project Manager Technical Director ATR/001/14/Rev.01.Rep.2 – Ogan River, Lubuk Batang, Batu Raja, Ogan Komering Ulu, South Sumatera, 13th January 2014 i Geoindo River Study – Power Station, Baturaja, South Sumatera CONSORTIUM MALAKOFF CORPORATION BERHAD, TOYOTA TSUSHO CORPORATION AND HANSON ENERGY LUBUK BATANG, BATURAJA, OGAN KOMERING ULU, SOUTH SUMATERA, INDONESIA RIVER STUDY AT OGAN RIVER – PHASE 1 REPORT 1 HYDROLOGY AND FLOOD STUDY EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The aim of this report is to provide the hydrological basis for assessing the feasibility of using the Ogan River between Tanjung Dalam and Lubuk Batang as a water supply source for a proposed power station. The Ogan River at Tanjung Dalam is fed from three main tributaries, which all join at the town of Batu Raja: Air Laye, Ulu Ogan and Lengkayap River represent 9%, 41% and 49% respectively of the catchment area at the confluence of 2024 km 2 catchment area. This is very similar to the published value of 2046 km2 for the historical Batu Raja gauging station. The residual catchment area downstream of the Batu Raja confluence is 75 km2, bringing the total area at Tanjung Dalam to 2099 km2. Based on geological map of Indonesia, the Ogan River Basin has volcanic rocks exposed at higher elevations and sedimentary rocks at lower elevations. Tertiary sedimentary rocks outcrop in a NW-SE band across the lower hills upstream of the town of Batu Raja. The most prominent aquifer in the region is the Batu Raja limestone, which is exploited for public water supply, while the other Tertiary sediments are reported to be less productive. Most of the lower-lying ground NE of Batu Raja is covered by Quaternary sediments and Tertiary deposits, comprising mudstone, sandstone and coal seams. The Ogan River develops the characteristics of a typical lowland floodplain 8 km downstream of Batu Raja town, and from this point there is evidence of river channel mobility across a wide belt of alluvium at Tanjung Dalam. Climate data at Kenten station was provided by the Indonesian authority for the period 1977 to 2012, showing a progressive rise in temperature during the period of record, confirming the impact of global warming at this location. Sunshine is recorded as typically 3-80% of daylight hours and a relative humidity 75-88%. Wind speed is generally between 2 and 4 knots, rising ATR/001/14/Rev.01.Rep.2 – Ogan River, Lubuk Batang, Batu Raja, Ogan Komering Ulu, South Sumatera, 13th January 2014 ii Geoindo River Study – Power Station, Baturaja, South Sumatera occasionally to 6 knots. PET (Potential Evapotranspiration) was calculated from the climate parameters, resulting in a mean annual total of 1395.8 mm for the Ogan River Basin. Daily rainfall data was provided for four stations, Kenten (1977 to 20120), Belitang (1991 to 2012), Batu Raja (2003 to 2012) and Martapura (1991 to 2001), none really representative of the Ogan catchment. Modelling would be improved using data from the following six sites in and around the catchment: Pulau Panggung, Pandan Enim, Raks Jiwa, Batu Marta, Karang Endah and Pengandonan. The mean annual rainfall at Kenten is 2590 mm for the period 19772012, which is lower than the catchment rainfall of 2920 mm, quoted in the IH 1983 report for the Batu Raja catchment. Rainfall derived from the Kenten station was adjusted to take into consideration this difference. At Batu Raja, it is suggested that climate change modelling be carried out during Phase 2, in order to determine the impact of global warming in Southern Sumatra on flood and drought discharge and the duration of times when the power station may become dependent on other sources. If the trend of rising temperature at Kenten over the period 1977-2012 were to continue, it could lead to lower river flows in the future. The fact that all the rainfall monitoring sites are located outside the Ogan River catchment imposes a significant limitation on the potential accuracy of river flow simulation. Where there are no flow records or an observed record is of short duration, a rainfall-runoff model is frequently used to produce a simulated flow record, using rainfall and PET as input data and produces river flow as an output. Meteorological data collected for a longer period than the flow record can then be used to simulate flows over a long period. This is a widely used practice and HYSIM will typically produce flow records of 50-100 years at any site of interest in the world, subject to the availability of rainfall and PET time series. Flow data was provided for several gauging stations in the Musi River Basin including two sites in the Ogan river basin, Lengkayap River at Batu Putih, and Ogan River at Tanjung Raja. Tanjung Raja is too far downstream to be of real use, and data for Ogan River at Batu Raja remains hidden in DPMA archives. DPMA in Bandung is still attempting to recover this valuable record from archived boxes for the Phase 2 studies, so that it can be digitised for modelling. HYSIM was calibrated for the period 1980-1992 using the flow record for Lengkayap River at Batu Putih, producing observed and simulated mean monthly flows of 42.36 m3/s. The standard deviation was 49.5 m3/s for the simulated flow and 60.2 m3/s for the observed flow. The main sub-catchments were simulated for the period 1977-2012 using the Batu Putih model parameters and physical descriptors of the other catchments. At Tanjung Dalam, the lowest predicted flow is 3.51 m3/s, and frequency analysis shows that the Q95 minimum flow is 10.8 m3/s, flow which has a 95% probability of being exceeded. Indonesian regulations would impose a ban on abstraction for flows less than Q95. The Ogan River at Batu Raja is one of the flow gauging stations used in 1983 by DPMA and the British Institute of Hydrology in a study of floods in Java and Sumatra. This station is located 11.4 km upstream of Tanjung Dalam. The MAF for Lengkayap River at Batu Putih is 587m3/s, and for Ogan River at Batu Raja is 1409 m3/s, calculated respectively from 13 and 10 years of annual maximum data. The 1972 flood identified by residents at Tanjung Dalam is the worst flood in the Batu Raja record, reported as 2472.5 m3/s, and more than double the other annual maxima. As a rule of thumb record lengths of only 10 and 13 years should only be extrapolated to predict up to 20 to 30 year return period floods, that is, double the available length of record. The estimated flood magnitude-frequency results for the Ogan River adjacent to the power station site at Tanjung Dalam may be summarised as follows: ATR/001/14/Rev.01.Rep.2 – Ogan River, Lubuk Batang, Batu Raja, Ogan Komering Ulu, South Sumatera, 13th January 2014 iii River Study – Power Station, Baturaja, South Sumatera Geoindo Return Period Peak Flood Discharge Years 10 25 50 100 200 3 1387 2076 2662 3354 4716 m /s Rarely, tropical storms track across Northern Sumatra from the Bay of Bengal, and from the South China Sea across Malaysia and Singapore. No events have been recorded in southern Sumatra. The Ogan River was represented using a 1-dimensional HEC-RAS hydraulic model. The LowFlow model was calibrated against surveyed water levels and discharges at specific locations, with particular reference to cross-section 3-3’. It was found that the riverbanks were overtopped at relatively modest flows of about 600 m3/s, which is less than the mean annual flood. The High-Flow model was calibrated against the surveyed 1972 flood levels (1244 m3/). The smallest water depth modelled at Cross-section 3 was 2.83 m for a discharge of 3.5 m3/s flowing at less than 0.1 m/s and having an exceedance probability of 99.9%. The predicted low water levels may be summarised as follows: Q95 Q99.9 10.78 m3/s 3.5 m3/s 30.95 m aMSL 30.63 m aMSL Minimum Bed Elevation at XS-3 is 27.80 m aMSL The 1972 flood of 2472.5 m3/s has an approximate level of 38 m aMSL at Cross-section 3. The predicted water levels at Cross-section 3 for a range of return periods may be summarised as follows: Return Period Peak Flood Discharge Floodwater Level Years m3/s m aMSL 10 1387 37.89 25 2076 38.62 50 2662 39.20 100 3354 39.80 200 4716 40.76 The floodwater mapping of the 40.8 m aMSL extents shows that the proposed power station site lies above the area of inundation, and that most of the area has freeboard of 20 m. It should be noted that observed flood levels from interview local people was 37.15 m and dry session level 30.103 m. The modelled predicted levels are similar to those observed given the accuracy of observations could be ± 1 m or more. ATR/001/14/Rev.01.Rep.2 – Ogan River, Lubuk Batang, Batu Raja, Ogan Komering Ulu, South Sumatera, 13th January 2014 iv River Study – Power Station, Baturaja, South Sumatera Geoindo CONSORTIUM MALAKOFF CORPORATION BERHAD, TOYOTA TSUSHO CORPORATION AND HANSON ENERGY LUBUK BATANG, BATURAJA, OGAN KOMERING ULU, SOUTH SUMATERA, INDONESIA RIVER STUDY AT OGAN RIVER – PHASE 1 REPORT 1 HYDROLOGY AND FLOOD STUDY TABLE OF CONTENTS Page No. REVISION HISTORY i EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ii TABLE OF CONTENTS v TEXT 1. INTRODUCTION 1 1.1. 1.2. 1 3 Project Description Definitions / Abbreviations 2. SCOPE OF WORK 4 3. FIELD WORK 4 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 Mobilisation Field Preparation Kick off Meeting and Site Inspection Data Collection Reference Benchmarks and Geodetic Control Survey Traverse Survey River Cross Section Survey Water Sampling and River Water Temperature Measurement ATR/001/14/Rev.01.Rep.2 – Ogan River, Lubuk Batang, Batu Raja, Ogan Komering Ulu, South Sumatera, 13th January 2014 v River Study – Power Station, Baturaja, South Sumatera Geoindo 3.9 3.10 3.11 3.12 3.13 4. Water Level Observation Current Measurement Demobilisation Drawing Processing Coordination and Communication with Company 7 8 8 8 8 ANALYSIS OF HYDROLOGY AND FLOOD STUDY 9 4.1 Catchments Characteristics 9 4.1.1 4.1.2 4.1.3 4.1.4 9 10 12 13 4.2 Topographic Mapping Catchment Geology Groundwater Floodplain Characteristics and Local Topography Climatological Data 14 4.2.1 4.2.2 4.2.3 4.2.4 4.2.5 4.2.6 4.2.7 4.2.8 14 15 15 16 17 17 19 20 Data Processing Temperature Sunshine Wind Speed Relative Humidity Rainfall Potential Evapotranspiration Climate Change 4.3 Hydrometric Data Acquisition and Review (Historical River Water Level and Discharge) and Continuous Water Level Monitoring During the Fieldwork 20 4.4 Simulation of Ogan River Discharge 21 4.4.1 4.4.2 4.4.3 4.4.4 4.4.5 Rainfall-Runoff Modelling Available River Discharge Data Hysim Calibration Simulation Limitations and Improvement 21 22 24 25 27 4.4.5.1 Possible Improvements in Accuracy 4.4.5.2 River Flow Data 4.4.5.3 Rainfall 4.4.5.4 Climatological Data 4.4.5.5 Artificial Influences 4.4.5.6 Climate Change 27 27 27 27 27 28 4.5 4.6 Flood Hydrology 28 4.5.1 4.5.2 4.5.3 4.5.4 28 28 32 33 Data Available for Flood Analysis Flood Frequency Analysis Flood Hydrographs Tropical Storms River Cross-Sections and Traverse Survey, to Establish Minimum and Maximum Water Level, at Five Locations along the Ogan ATR/001/14/Rev.01.Rep.2 – Ogan River, Lubuk Batang, Batu Raja, Ogan Komering Ulu, South Sumatera, 13th January 2014 vi River Study – Power Station, Baturaja, South Sumatera Geoindo 4.7 4.8 River, defining Water Level for Each Cross-Section and Measuring Points Referred to Mean Sea Level 34 4.6.1 4.6.2 4.6.3 34 35 36 River Water Flow Rate Measurement at Section 3, Showing Minimum and Maximum Values, Following Format of TOR Appendix 3 Hydraulic Modelling using HEC-RAS to Establish Low Flow and High Flow Water Levels for Different Severity of Events 4.8.1 4.8.2 4.8.3 4.8.4 4.9 4.10 Reference Benchmarks and Geodetic Control Survey Traverse Survey River Cross Section Survey 36 37 HEC-RAS Modelling Model Configuration Model Calibration Model Simulation 37 37 39 43 4.8.4.1 High Flow Configuration 4.8.4.2 Low Flow Water Levels 4.8.4.3 Flood Water Levels 43 44 46 Description of the Geo-Hydrological Conditions at the Power Plant and in the Study Area 47 Deliverables and Reporting 49 4.10.1 Field Daily Report 4.10.2 Interim Draft Report 4.10.3 Final Report 49 49 49 5 QUALITY CONTROL 49 6. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS 50 6.1 6.2 50 51 Conclusions Recommendations For Phase 2 Annex Annex A TOR Appendix 4 A-1 Flow and Water Level at Tanjung Dalam A-2 Summary of Kenten Climatological Data A-2-1 Climatic Means and Extremes A-2-2 Seasonal Distribution of Daily Temperature A-2-3 Seasonal Distribution of Relative Humidity A-2-4 Rainfall in mm A-2-5 Wind Speed [knots] A-2-6 Atmospheric Pressure [mbar] 52 52 52 52 52 52 53 53 53 Annex B Hydrological Data Summaries B-1 PET Time Series for Ogan River Basin 54 54 ATR/001/14/Rev.01.Rep.2 – Ogan River, Lubuk Batang, Batu Raja, Ogan Komering Ulu, South Sumatera, 13th January 2014 vii River Study – Power Station, Baturaja, South Sumatera Geoindo Annex C B-2 Monthly Rainfall Summary for Kenten B-3 Monthly Mean Runoff in m3/s at Tanjung Dalam 55 56 Hydraulic Model Summaries C-1 Predicted Low Flow Water Levels C-2 Predicted Water Levels for Dry Season Flows C-3 Flood Extent Maps 57 57 58 61 Table in Main Text Table 4.1 Table 4.2 Table 4.3 Table 4.4 Table 4.5 Table 4.6 Drainage Network and Sub-Division of the Ogan River Catchment Monthly and Annual Rainfall in mm for Kenten Rainfall Station Monthly and Annual PET in mm for the Ogan River Basin at Batu Raja Lengkayap River Mean Daily Discharge at Batu Putih Duration of Low Flows at Tanjung Dalam Computation of Mean Annual Flood (MAF) for the Batu Raja and Batu Putih Catchments Table 4.7 Annual Maxima for Ogan River at Batu Raja Lengkayap River at Batu Putih Table 4.8 Flood Discharge Estimates for Ogan River at Batu Raja and for Lengkayap River at Batu Putih Table 4.9 Flood Discharge Estimates for Ogan River at Tanjung Dalam Table 4.10 Values of Manning’s n used for the Floodplain Table 4.11 Observed and Predicted Water Surface Elevations at Cross Section 3 Table 4.12 “Observed” and Predicted Water Levels for the 1972 Event Table 4.13 Predicted Maximum Water Depth, Flow Velocity and Width at Three Cross Sections Table 4.14 Predicted Flood Water Levels 10 18 19 22 26 29 30 30 32 38 41 42 45 46 Figure in Main Text Figure 1.1 Figure 4.1 Figure 4.2 Figure 4.3 Figure 4.4 Figure 4.5 Figure 4.6 Figure 4.7 Figure 4.8 Figure 4.9 Figure 4.10 Figure 4.11 Figure 4.12 Figure 4.13 Figure 4.14 Figure 4.15 Figure 4.16 Figure 4.17 Figure 4.18 Figure 4.19 Figure 4.20 Figure 4.21 Location of the Project Site and Ogan Catchment Drainage Network and Sub-Division of the Ogan River Catchment Simplified Geology of the Ogan River Catchment Simplified Geological Cross-Section of the Ogan River Catchment The Ogan River Corridor adjacent to the Proposed Power Plant Variation in Temperature at Kenten, 1977-2012 Sunlight as a Percentage of Daylight Hours at Kenten, 1977-2012 Monthly Average Wind Speed at Kenten, 1977-2012 Monthly Relative Humidity at Kenten Monthly Rainfall at Selected Rainfall Stations Annual Variation in Rainfall at Kenten Monthly Variation in PET in the Ogan River Basin at Batu Raja Projections of Annual Average Temperature in West Java Lengkayap River Mean Daily Discharge at Batu Putih Comparison of Rainfall and Runoff in the Lengkayap River Catchment Lengkayap River Stage-Discharge Rating Lengkayap River Model Calibration Lengkayap River Flow Duration Comparisons Probability % of Different Flow Durations at Tanjung Dalam Mean Annual Maximum 24-hourly rainfall (mm)] APBAR Flood Frequency Curves for Ogan River at Batu Raja and Lengkayap River at Batu Putih Flood hydrographs for Ogan River at Tanjung Dalam 1 9 11 13 14 15 16 17 17 18 19 19 20 23 24 24 25 25 26 29 32 32 ATR/001/14/Rev.01.Rep.2 – Ogan River, Lubuk Batang, Batu Raja, Ogan Komering Ulu, South Sumatera, 13th January 2014 viii Geoindo River Study – Power Station, Baturaja, South Sumatera Figure 4.22 Indian-Pacific Tropical Cyclone Tracks 1985-2005 Figure 4.23 Hydraulic Model Schematic Figure 4.24 Cross Section 3 Velocity Measurement Positions for Discharge Calculation Figure 4.25 Stage-Discharge Relationship for a Narrow Range of Flows Measured at Cross Section 3 Figure 4.26 Comparison of Predicted and Observed Water Levels for Different Dates using two n-Values Figure 4.27 Schematic of the Model Configuration for Large Flood Event Simulation Figure 4.28 Predicted Water Levels for Dry Season Flows across Cross-Sections 2-4 Figure 4.29 Dry-Weather Flow Maximum Water Depths Predicted across CrossSections 2-4 Figure 4.30 Predicted Stage-Discharge Relationship for Ogan River Flood Flows at The Power Station Site 34 38 40 40 43 44 45 46 47 TABLES 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. List of Benchmark Coordinates GPS Accuracy Traverse Accuracy List of Collected Data A. Water Level Recording B. Water Level Height Referred to Chart Datum 6. A. Current Measurement B. Current Measurement Data Summary C. Water Debit Calculation of Cross Section 3 7. Channel Cross-section Survey Data 8. List of Water Level 9. List Coordinates of Lowest Dry Season Level 10. List of Coordinates of Highest Flood Level 11. List of Coordinates of Riverbed Level at Upstream and Downstream 12. Site Information 13. Local Stratigraphy Column FIGURES 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Regional Map Location Plan Geological Map (From Directorate Geology) Geodetic Control Network Traverse Survey Network Elevation Datum Relationship Chart A. Drainage Network and Sub-Division of the Ogan River Catchment B. Climatological data: Kenten C. Hydraulic Model Schematic D. Lengkayap River at Batu Putih, 2006-2009 E. Storage Option 8. Hydrogeological Map 9. Flood Maps ATR/001/14/Rev.01.Rep.2 – Ogan River, Lubuk Batang, Batu Raja, Ogan Komering Ulu, South Sumatera, 13th January 2014 ix Geoindo River Study – Power Station, Baturaja, South Sumatera APPENDICES 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. Reference Control Point Benchmark Details Report of GPS Survey Data Processing Report of Traverse Survey Data Processing GPS Calibration Certification Total Station Calibration Certification Total Station Field Calibration Data Collection – Flow Rate A. Flow Rate at Srijabo Post B. Flow Rate at Batu Putih Post C. Flow Rate at Belarik Post D. Flow Rate at Tirtonadi Post E. Flow Rate at Rantau Bingin Muara Post F. Flow Rate at Lubuk Rumbai Post G. Flow Rate at Ulak Surung Post H. Flow Rate at Mangunjaya Post I. Flow Rate at Menanga Post J. Flow Rate at Lebak Budi Post K. Flow Rate at Sungai Rotan Post L. Flow Rate at Tanjungraya Post M. Flow Rate at Tanjung Rembang Post N. Flow Rate at Kota Agung Post 9. Data Collection – Water Level A. Water Level at Srijabo Post B. Water Level at Batu Putih Post C. Water Level at Belarik Post D. Water Level at Tirtonadi Post E. Water Level at Rantau Bingin Muara Post F. Water Level at Lubuk Rumbai Post G. Water Level at Ulak Surung Post H. Water Level at Mangunjaya Post I. Water Level at Menanga Post J. Water Level at Lebak Budi Post K. Water Level at Sungai Rotan Post L. Water Level at Tanjungraya Post M. Water Level at Tanjung Raja Post N. Water Level at Kota Agung Post 10. Data Collection – Climatology Data A. Climatology Post Sumatera Selatan B. Climatology Data at Kenten Post (Daily) C. Climatology Data at Kenten Post (Monthly) D. Climatology Data at Baturaja Post E. Rainfall Data at Baturaja OKU F. Rainfall Data at Martapura Post G. Rainfall Data at Belitang Post 11. Photographs ATR/001/14/Rev.01.Rep.2 – Ogan River, Lubuk Batang, Batu Raja, Ogan Komering Ulu, South Sumatera, 13th January 2014 x River Study – Power Station, Baturaja, South Sumatera Geoindo DRAWINGS No. DWG No. Rev No. 1 ATR/001/01/001 A Site Plan 1 : 10,000 2 ATR/001/01/002 A Cross Section 1 – 1’ to 3 – 3’ 3 ATR/001/01/003 A Cross Section 4 – 4’ to 6 – 6’ H V H V 4 ATR/001/01/004 A Cross Section 7 – 7’ to 10 – 10’ H 1 : 2,500 V 1 : 250 A1 5 ATR/001/01/005 A Lubuk Batang baru Bridge Plan & Sections 1 : 500 A1 Drawing Title Scale 1 : 2,500 1 : 250 1 : 2,500 1 : 250 Size A1 A1 A1 ATR/001/14/Rev.01.Rep.2 – Ogan River, Lubuk Batang, Batu Raja, Ogan Komering Ulu, South Sumatera, 13th January 2014 xi