IPTS-TIM©: Early Evaluation of Technology Development An adaptable and systematic procedure to evaluate the industrial, economics and social interests of new technology development projects The IPTS-TIM© V.1.1 software is a tool to help S&T experts in structuring the evaluation and early identification of innovative technology and increasing their awareness on market related issues. Presently, no comparable software of similar characteristics is available: IPTS-TIM© V.1.1 represents a real novelty. A strong interest has been shown by several RTD and commercial organisations which already requested to obtain and use the software. This user-friendly and completely modular tool facilitates the characterisation of technology objectives, especially under the European (& technological) perspective, incorporating socio- economic considerations and risk evaluation concepts. The results provided can also fit the expectations of less experienced evaluators by serving as a checking list or guideline in technology evaluation processes. The software provides extensive (including prospective) information on specific technology development areas & markets and can be used as an effective tool to monitor technological and market trends valuable in technology portfolio management. The need The strategic and policy relevance of technology innovation in the European Union has become increasingly relevant for the potential impact it has in the extended socio-economic system. Unfortunately, whereas the European performance in terms of scientific output is unquestioned in comparison with its principal competitors, the commercial and innovative performance of some European high-tech sectors is relatively lower or even declining. This fact underlines the significance of developing appropriate mechanisms for the efficient identification of new & marketable technologies and their transfer to enterprises. These mechanisms could result in a higher number of innovations and lead to better products and services for the European Union citizens. Whenever a new technology development is proposed, its interest has to be evaluated and finally the company, or the funding organisation, has to decide whether it should be supported or abandoned. The decision is generally based on the opinion of evaluators in the field where the new technology is to be applied. The benefits of bringing objectivity into the technology evaluation are: From previous experience, an objective procedure can be adjusted to better match future results. Structured/traceable estimate avoids the mixing of individual interests or biases. The objective assessment procedure can be turned into a software product that companies and funding organisations will be able to use to evaluate technology developments. Considering all these concepts, the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre – Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS) implemented an action-oriented project to identify a cluster of marketable and innovative technologies owned by the Community based on objective elements of judgement. The results were not only an evaluation of these technologies, but also the creation of a decision-making support methodology: “Technology Identification Model”. Presently, a software package based on such methodology, IPTS-TIM© V.1.1 has been developed (December 1999). The new methodology allows the identification and evaluation of present and future technologies according to their marketability potential, while taking into account all possible social, environmental and European policy dimensions, their development status and potential innovative impacts. Wold Trade Center, Isla de la Cartuja s/n, E-41092 Seville, Spain web: http:\\www.jrc.es Telephone: +34 95 448 8318, Fax: +34 95 448 83 00 The model and the product The IPTS’s Technology Identification Model and the software (IPTS-TIM© V.1.1) aim to assist scientists and managers in increasing their awareness of market related issues, by upgrading skills and information in a structured and flexible way. IPTS-TIM© V.1.1 is constructed as a weighted additive linear model. The implemented methodology uses a hierarchical, rank order approach oriented towards performing technology portfolio management. IPTS-TIM© V.1.1, as a model for appraising the marketability of new technologies, can be implemented either at any decisionmaking level or at scientific staff level within technology-based organisations or stakeholders. IPTS-TIM© V.1.1 takes into account every relevant aspect of a technological project in order to reach a final objective result aimed at providing an objective evaluation of the economic and social benefits expected from the results of the technology development. Wold Trade Center, Isla de la Cartuja s/n, E-41092 Seville, Spain web: http:\\www.jrc.es Telephone: +34 95 448 8318, Fax: +34 95 448 83 00 The basic information is collected through four modules that arrange and select external and internal information and which is processed through three additional modules to provide clear results that facilitate decision-making. The results of the test market survey provide a better understanding of the companies’ technological needs and, more importantly, open up a dialogue with the industry concerning the possible transfer of technologies. General Data (GD) Technology Watch (TW) This module General data user’s name, type, and description. The Technology Watch module provides a systematic and structured procedure to retrieve and process supportive detailed background and prospective information on the technology under analysis, and on the industrial areas in which it might be applied. The information provided in this module uses database and bibliographic sources, in conjunction with the analysis of available foresight studies and European Union R&D and relevant industrial policy actions. requires the user to fill the of the project. The data are: technology name, technology a very short technology Technology Description (TD) This module collects data on the all the basic information available at the Organisation/Department level concerning the technology that is going to be evaluated. Market Enquiry (ME) The module permits analysing information from a pilot survey on the commercialisation potential of the targeted technology. It also allows identifying relevant economic information, alternative applications, potential market segments for technology application, etc. The implementation phase means a selection of (innovative) companies which operate in the related market segment and which would presumably be interested in the technology. Technology and Evaluation (T&MEM) Market This module calculates weighted averages, which rely heavily on the results of the TD, ME and TW modules. The T&MEM incorporates the different factor scores assigned to each of the technologies and classified under four main broad categories: a) Development level of the technology b) Market potential c) Innovative potential d) Social and environmental incidence of the technology. Wold Trade Center, Isla de la Cartuja s/n, E-41092 Seville, Spain web: http:\\www.jrc.es Telephone: +34 95 448 8318, Fax: +34 95 448 83 00 Detailed Economic and Financial Evaluation (DE&FEM) Starting from a technological investment project, this cost-benefit module permits to perform a detailed economic and financial evaluation of the profitability potential of the project. Since the module relies on quantitative information, the evaluation provides a first estimation of the expected returns derived from technology transfer processes. This module provides the results for commonly used formulas in project investment evaluation such as net present value, return on investment and pay-back. It also comprises calculations for issues commonly present in technology transfer processes such as maintenance fees, royalty rates and decision under uncertainty. The Detailed Economic and Financial Evaluation Module can be operated as a stand-alone module or its results integrated with the other IPTS-TIM modules. © Final Evaluation Index (FEI) The Final Evaluation Index (FEI) is a module combining the results of the “Technology and Market Evaluation” Index and the “Detailed Economic and Financial Evaluation” Index. The FEI combines the results derived from the T&MEM and the DE&FEM indexes, with the former using purely qualitative information and the latter using only quantitative information. The module provides graphic representations and allows comparisons of specific indicators. Additional features include the possibility of comparing technology evaluation results and to perform technology rankings. The innovative features The innovative aspects of IPTS-TIM V.1.1 relay on unique features which allow technology comparison and ranking according to pre-selected criteria, which include, in an all encompassing structured model, considerations relating to: scientific and technological futures, market trends, economic and financial assessment planning, and EU RTD policy & SocioEconomic impact dimensions. Moreover, the software permits the following functions: © - structure the evaluation of a given technology as compared to a) the contents of the EU policy actions, b) the information of prospective studies, c) the information of commercial/bibliographic/ databases. - automatic preparation of questionnaires for electronic mailing including matching with NACE classification and automatic compilation of results from questionnaires - provision of economic and financial evaluation analysis report including NPV, ROI calculations - graphical project comparisons for each criteria and evaluation module - possibility to modify criteria’s evaluation weights according to user needs. IPTS-TIM© V.1.1: What’s next As a follow up to this product, the Institute for Prospective Technological Studies of European Commission’s Joint Research Centre is planning to update and improve the currently available version, according to the suggestions that will be made by the targeted users of the software. Seville, 16th December, 1999 Contact information For any additional information and for ordering the software, you can contact the Institute for Prospective Technological Studies by sending an e-mail to: IPTS-TIM@jrc.es or writing to the attention of P. Moncada-PaternòCastello at the following address: European Commission - Joint Research Centre, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies W.T.C., Isla de la Cartuja s/n, 41092 Sevilla (Spain) www.jrc.es Wold Trade Center, Isla de la Cartuja s/n, E-41092 Seville, Spain web: http:\\www.jrc.es Telephone: +34 95 448 8318, Fax: +34 95 448 83 00