BACKGROUND PAPER
CLIMATE CHANGE AND SUSTAINABILITY
Note: The views expressed in this background paper do not purport to reflect the views of the Minister
or the Department of Agriculture, Food and the Marine
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Climate Change & Sustainability
Background Document
Climate Change & Sustainability
1.
Context
2.
Sectoral Goals
3.
Current sectoral analysis
4.
Specific actions
5.
Sustainability considerations
6.
Challenges up to 2025
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Climate Change and Sustainability
1. Context
This paper examines how Irish agriculture might evolve towards 2025, with a special emphasis on the
sustainability of agriculture and food production.
In recent decades, global population growth, changes in food demand, conversion to modern, highinput agriculture, land use changes, and the globalisation of agricultural markets have greatly
increased the pressures on our natural resources resulting in significant biodiversity loss and a
reduction in water quality. Thus, producing additional food requirements whilst maintaining and
restoring biodiversity and water quality to its highest potential and reducing net carbon emissions,
must be a key goal for sustainable agriculture production systems.
The EU Roadmap to a Resource Efficient Europe prioritises water, clean air, ecosystem services,
healthy soils and marine resources as key resources to be efficiently managed in a concerted effort to
use the Earth’s limited resources in a sustainable manner. Both EU and National environmental
priorities centre on achieving targets for: water quality, climate change, air quality and biodiversity. In
broad terms, appropriate land management, livestock management and efficient nutrient
management will be central to the delivering on these objectives.
In 2010, the Food Harvest 2020 report set out a vision for an Irish food and drink industry that was
innovative, efficient, and a global leader in environmentally sustainable production. It envisaged a
sector that could reap considerable rewards by working and acting ‘smartly’ so as to make the most
productive use of Ireland’s rich natural ‘green’ resources in a way that is both economically viable and
sustainable in the future. An ongoing commitment to and delivery on key environmental targets under
relevant National and EU legislation and strategies, and with international commitments will be a
critical success factor underlying Ireland’s sustainability credentials towards 2025.
2. Sectoral Goals
Food Harvest 2020 Targets
The Food Harvest 2020 Committee’s Report was published in July 2010 and includes a range of
specific volume and value growth targets for the different elements of the Irish agricultural, forestry,
bio-energy, fishing and food sectors. A key target within the report is to increase the value of primary
output from the agriculture, fisheries and forestry sectors by €1.5 billion. This target was linked to a
number of sustainability goals including:




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Reducing the carbon intensity of agricultural activities and enhancing carbon sinks;
Developing new green technologies that improve water quality;
Protecting biodiversity and achieving biodiversity targets;
Developing sustainable energy requirements;
Promoting sustainable pasture-based farming and soil management;
Continued investments in research to develop technologies and approaches required to make
Ireland a world leader in science based sustainable agricultural and food production;
Ensuring environmentally sustainable production practices for seafood and aquaculture.
The potential impact of this increased production on the environment was considered to be slightly
negative overall in the Food Harvest Environmental Report1 finalised in January 2014. Hence to
achieve the aforementioned sustainability goals, significant investment is being targeted to address
potential negative impacts through for example, research aimed at developing and refining best
1
http://www.agriculture.gov.ie/media/migration/ruralenvironment/climatechange/FoodHarvest2020Environm
entalAnalysisFINAL050214.pdf
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practices, investment through the RDP and the identification and confirmation of sustainability
credentials for Irish agricultural production.
National, EU and International Policy drivers
Air Quality
In relation to air quality, Ireland is a party to the Convention on Long Range Transboundary Air
Pollution (CLRTAP) under which the Gothenburg Protocol sets out targets for the control of ammonia
(NH3) emissions. Implementation of the Gothenburg protocol is achieved through limits set out in the
National Emissions Ceilings Directive (NECD, 2001/81/EC).
In 2012, under a revised Gothenburg protocol, Ireland’s target for ammonia emissions is a 0.5%
reduction on 2005 levels by 2020 which equates to a value of 108.6 kt of ammonia in 2020. There is
a proposal in the EU Clean Air Package2 released in December 2013, for the Commission to ratify the
Gothenburg Protocol on behalf of the EU, which would be followed by the expectation that Member
States would move swiftly to ratify in their own right, most likely sometime in 2015. In addition, a
revised National Emissions Ceiling (NEC) Directive was released as part of the EU Clean Air
Package. The proposed amendment to the NEC directive will impose a further reduction target for
NH3 by 2030 and will also introduce targets for Methane (CH4) and Particulate Matter (PM2.5).
The 2030 targets of interest to the Irish agricultural sector are as follows:
Ammonia
Methane
PM2.5
Ireland
-7%
-7%
-35%
EU 28 average
-27%
-33%
-51%
Climate Change
Presently, the EU Climate and Energy Package of 20083 which sets out ambitious targets for 2020, is
the primary driver of climate policy in the EU. These targets, known as the "20-20-20" targets, set
three key objectives for 2020:

A 20% reduction in EU greenhouse gas emissions from 1990 levels;

Raising the share of EU energy consumption produced from renewable resources to 20%;

A 20% improvement in the EU's energy efficiency.
This EU commitment operates in parallel to the second Kyoto commitment period 2013 – 2020 which
was agreed under the Doha Amendment of the UNFCCC in December 2012.
Ireland was assigned a target of minus 20% for the non-ETS (non-emissions trading sectors) along
with Denmark and Luxemburg. This is a very challenging target for Ireland especially as agriculture
has the largest emissions profile in the non-ETS. A high share of the emissions come from agricultural
livestock where there is limited availability of cost effective mitigation options.
Ireland’s target under the renewable energy directive component of the climate and energy package
2008 is to obtain 16% of our energy from renewable sources, as follows:

40% renewable electricity;
2
http://ec.europa.eu/environment/air/clean_air_policy.htm
3
http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/package/index_en.htm
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
12% renewable heat;
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10% renewable transport.
Responsibility for ensuring the Irelands renewable energy target within this framework is met is a
matter for the Department of Communications, Energy and Natural Resources (DCENR) in the first
instance. However the Department of Agriculture, Food and the Marine (DAFM) policies can
contribute in particular to the renewable heat target through biomass policies and schemes.
In January 2014, the European Commission brought forward a Communication on proposals for a
2030 policy framework4 for climate and energy. The proposed framework seeks to drive continued
progress towards the EU’s long-term objective of a low-carbon economy by 2050. The
Communication proposes a new governance framework for climate and energy policy in the period to
2030 based on national plans which will be prepared by Member States.
A central piece of the framework is the target to reduce EU domestic greenhouse gas emissions by
40% below the 1990 level by 2030. To achieve the overall 40% target, the sectors covered by the EU
ETS would have to reduce their emissions by 43% compared to 2005 while sectors within the nonETS would need to be cut by 30% below the 2005 level. The Commission also proposes an objective
of increasing the share of renewable energy to at least 27% of the EU's energy consumption by 2030,
to be binding at EU-wide level rather than at individual Member States level.
Ongoing discussions on this framework are aimed at agreeing the pledge that the EU will make in
global negotiations on climate change which will culminate in Paris in December 2015. The
development of this policy framework for climate and energy in the period from 2020 to 2030 is hugely
important for the agriculture and land use sectors across the European Union. Ireland has been
providing leadership in this area in the EU, and is also very active in the UN negotiations and in a
variety of other international initiatives and alliances on this crucial issue for the EU and for the planet.
Nationally, the Department of the Environment, Community and Local Government published the
National Policy Position and final Heads of the Climate Action and Low Carbon Development Bill 5 in
April 2014. The Bill re-affirms Ireland’s commitment to compliance with existing and future
greenhouse gas emission reduction obligations and requires the development of a national lowcarbon roadmap (containing sectoral mitigation inputs from government departments) to drive the
transition to a low-carbon, climate resilient, environmentally sustainable economy by 2050. It also
requires the development of a national climate change adaptation plan6 to identify and avoid
unacceptable risks due to climate change.
Soil
The withdrawal of the proposed Soil Framework Directive in May 2014 means that no formal EU soil
policy now exists. However, the importance of soil protection is recognised in number of important
strategic documents:

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"The Future We Want" agreed by Heads of State at the United Nations Conference on
Sustainable Development held in Rio de Janeiro in June 2012 (Rio+20) underlines the importance
of soil and the contribution good soil management can make, inter alia, to economic growth,
http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/2030/index_en.htm
5
http://www.environ.ie/en/Environment/Atmosphere/ClimateChange/NationalClimatePolicy/News/MainBody,
37848,en.htm
6
http://www.environ.ie/en/Publications/Environment/ClimateChange/FileDownLoad,32076,en.pdf
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biodiversity, sustainable agriculture and food security, climate change and improving water
availability. It recognises the need for urgent action to reverse land degradation and “to achieve a
land-degradation neutral world in the context of sustainable development”;

The Communication from the Commission on a “Roadmap to a Resource Efficient Europe” of
September 2011 includes a milestone for 2020 that “the rate of land take is on track with an aim
to achieve no net land take by 2050; soil erosion is reduced and the soil organic matter increased,
with remedial work on contaminated sites well underway”; and

The Seventh Environment Action Programme (7th EAP) commits the EU and its Member States to
increase efforts to reduce land degradation processes, to remediate contaminated sites and to
integrate land use aspects into coordinated decision-making across government “supported by
the adoption of targets on soil and on land as a resource, and land planning objectives”. In
particular, the 7th EAP urges the Union and its Member States to “reflect as soon as possible on
how soil quality issues could be addressed using a targeted and proportionate risk-based
approach within a binding legal framework. Targets should also be set for sustainable land use
and soil.”
The EU has commenced a process towards developing a new consensus legislative initiative on soil
protection that will focus on and address the most urgent soil degradation processes, such as soil
sealing, erosion, loss of organic matter, landslides and contamination.
Water
The EU Water Framework Directive (WFD), encompassing a set of 11 key existing EU Directives
related to water, is the overall driver of water policy in the EU and as a EU Member State, Ireland is
obliged to implement it. The WFD sets strict deadlines for meeting water quality objectives across
Member States. Under the WFD, Ireland has assigned River Basin Districts, each of which a River
Basin Management Plan was published in July 2010. These plans describe all Irish waters and their
quality status. Each Plan sets out a programme of measures to assist all sectors in collectively
achieving the WFD objective of ‘good status’ in all waters by 2015, i.e. the end of the first cycle of
WFD implementation. There are some exempted water bodies identified which for particular reasons,
have had their deadline for achieving ‘good status’ pushed out to a second WFD cycle, i.e. 2021, or a
third WFD cycle, i.e. 2027. The first cycle of implementation in Ireland is running from 2010 to 2015
and preparation has already begun on the implementation of the 2 nd WFD cycle.
International level policy includes the OECD’s Green Growth Strategy. This is defined as a way to
pursue economic growth and development, while preventing environmental degradation, biodiversity
loss, and unsustainable natural resource use.
New water policy Regulations (S.I. 350 of 2014) have been made by the Minister for Environment and
currently a public consultation is underway on the development of 2 nd cycle River Basin Management
Plans (RBMP), implementing the EU Water framework Directive.
Biodiversity
The Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) was adopted in 1992 with the main aim of the
conservation of biological diversity including the promotion of the sustainable use of the components
of biological diversity. While the convention has 168 signatories, the non-binding nature of the goals
within it, meant that little real progress was made for many years, with the result that global
biodiversity losses continued.
The principal legislation protecting biodiversity in the EU are the Birds and the Habitats Directives.
NATURA 2000 sites are protected habitats for flora and fauna of European importance, comprising of
Special Areas of Conservation (SAC) designated under the Habitats Directive and Special Protection
Areas (SPA) designated under the Birds Directive. Approximately 13% of Ireland’s land area has
been designated as NATURA 2000, compared to the EU average of 17.5%.
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In 2011, the EU Commission published a communication on the new EU Biodiversity Strategy,
entitled ‘Our life insurance, our natural capital: an EU biodiversity strategy in 2020’. This strategy
identifies 6 specific areas for action, including improved implementation of the nature directives and
aiming to maintain and restore ecosystems and their services.
Ireland’s second National Biodiversity Plan was published in 2011 and covers the period to 2016.
This Plan was prepared against a background of increasing biodiversity pressures and losses at both
European and global level. It contains 102 actions that aim to better understand and protect
biodiversity. Some key actions for the agriculture sector are as follows:

develop measures in future rural development programmes for the protection and enhancement
of ecosystem services and biodiversity;

further develop criteria to identify High Nature Value (HNV) farmland and develop measures to
address threats to HNV;

effective implementation of cross-compliance and statutory management requirements to ensure
conservation of biodiversity;
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conduct a systematic evaluation process for any agri-environmental schemes delivered, involving
a robust ecological monitoring programme;
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strengthen measures to ensure conservation, and availability for use, of genetic diversity of crop
varieties, livestock breeds and races;

ensure that agri-environmental schemes provide targeted and costed prescriptions that will
contribute to favourable conservation status in farmed designated sites.
3. Current Sectoral analysis
GHG and Ammonia Emissions Trend
The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) figures published on 28th May 2014 project that in the
absence of abatement measures agriculture emissions will increase by 9% over the period 2013 to
2020 or 3% above the Effort Sharing Decision (ESD) reference year of 2005. This is predominantly
driven by a projected shift to dairy production and away from specialist beef production, increase in
dairy cow numbers of 14% between 2015 and 2020 following the abolition of milk quotas in 2015 and
reflects national plans to expand milk production under Food Harvest 2020 as well as a projected
increase in fertiliser nitrogen use of 27% by 2020. Overall there is a limited change in total bovine
numbers as the national herd evolves to take a greater dairy orientation.
The net effect of projected developments in levels of agricultural activity and input usage is to leave
agricultural GHG emissions in 2030, at 19.7 mt CO 2 eq. Over the projection period, aggregate
agricultural GHG emissions exhibit an increase relative to the 2005 level by over 5 %. Likewise NH3
emissions will be on an upward trend as a result of increases in activity levels rising to approx 117kt
NH3 from 103kt NH3 in 2012.
It is important to reiterate that the projected level of emissions reflects a business as usual scenario,
and this does not consider potential emission reductions that might arise through the adoption of
abatement technologies. Incorporation of abatement technologies in this type of analysis is
complicated for several reasons such as costs, knowledge transfer, age etc.
Notwithstanding these considerations Teagasc has produced a Marginal Abatement Cost Curve
(MACC). The MACC estimates the agricultural GHG abatement potential that will exist by 2020. It is
found that agricultural GHG emissions could be reduced by 1.1 Mt or about 5 % based on the uptake
of a range of measures (Schulte and Donnellan, 2012). Estimates of the technical abatement potential
achievable by 2030 have yet to be produced.
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Nitrogen use
The level of grassland synthetic nitrogen use is illustrated below. A downward trend in nitrogen use
per hectare is evident in the period 2000 to 2012. Some of the decline can be explained by more
efficient usage of slurry, but the rising price of nitrogen may have also been a factor in the decline in
its use.
Intensity of Nitrogen Usage on grassland in Ireland
Source: FAPRI-Ireland (2013)
Nitrogen use reached a low in 2011 and 2012. However, nitrogen use rose again in 2013, most likely
as a reaction to the experience of the fodder crisis. It is difficult to be sure what the required amount of
nitrogen is at the current level of production intensity, given the extent of the variation in nitrogen use
in the last three years. In turn this makes it more challenging to project future levels of nitrogen use.
Over the projection period there is an intensification of some agricultural production (most notably
dairy production) which may require increased inputs. This is particularly noticeable in the case of
synthetic nitrogen use, principally due to the projected increase in milk production. Milk production
has a synthetic nitrogen requirement per hectare that is typically three times that of beef systems. In
the aggregate, fertiliser usage rises over time reflecting the increasing intensity of production and the
increasing share of milk production in overall bovine agriculture.
Emissions intensity
Major efforts are being made in further improving the climate & resource efficiency of agriculture and
to build upon the progress made to date. Analysis of the emissions intensity of Irish agriculture more
closely illustrates the major progress that has been made. It shows that the Irish agriculture sector
has not been complacent and has succeeded in achieving efficiency improvements as can be seen
from the graph below.
In summary, emissions intensity per calorie of food output in 2013 is reduced by approximately 14%
relative to 2005 and early estimates project that the Business As Usual (BAU) 2030 emission intensity
will be a quarter below the emission intensity in 2005. Early estimates of agricultural mitigation
measures are approximately 35% below 2005 although absolute emissions remain reasonably stable.
However, this is the maximum that is technically achievable and unlikely to be fully matched in
practice.
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Taking together the projected increase in food production under Food Harvest 2020 and the ambitious
reduction in GHG intensity of that production, it may be possible for Ireland to approximately flat-line
aggregate emissions from agriculture compared to 2005. It is important to emphasise the enormous
climate efficiency ambition that is implicit in this. However it must be noted that a flat-lining of
agricultural emissions would represent the current best estimate of the absolute maximum that is
technically achievable. Estimates of agricultural abatement to 2020 are based on the Food Harvest
2020 industry production targets but beyond that are based only on research estimates and must
therefore be interpreted with caution.
Renewable Energy - Achieving the anticipated renewable energy usage in the three energy sectors
will be challenging - the 12% renewable heat target particularly so. Despite increases in recent years
there are still relatively low levels of production and use of renewable energy overall in Ireland. The
extent to which there will be development of domestic resources to meet demand will be dependent
on the price of biomass. Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland (SEAI) analysis suggests that,
depending on the price of biomass, there could be up to 3,000 ktoe of domestically sourced biomass
available by 2030 if the barriers to its mobilisation can be addressed.
The sustainability and potential impact of Indirect Land Use Change (ILUC), of biomass will continue
to be a critical consideration in the development of bioenergy policy.
Fossil decarbonisation - As suggested in the recent IPCC AR5 report, scenarios that are most likely
to keep global temperature change below 2oC are dependent on the scale and uptake of bioenergy,
carbon capture and storage. Therefore the expansion of the bioenergy sector, which is also closely
linked to the Agriculture, Forestry & Other Land Use (AFOLU) sector, and the management of land
resources to accommodate it, in the context of food security, is likely to be an increasing feature of the
overall policy in this area. It should be noted that bioenergy will require at least equivalent approaches
to sustainable land management such as food production. Although both food security and bioenergy
(security) are based on the land resource, the dynamic can be complementary. Both activities should
provide positive environmental and development returns to rural communities.
4. Specific Actions:
CAP Pillar 1 – Cross-Compliance
Under the new Basic Payment Scheme (currently Single Payment Scheme), farmers are required to
comply with numerous environmental standards in order to qualify for payment. Compliance with
these environmental standards is controlled by DAFM using the Cross-Compliance system. These
environmental standards include compliance with the EU environmental directives such as Nitrates,
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Birds and Habitats directives and also Good Agricultural and Environmental Condition (GAEC) and
CAP Greening rules.
The Nitrates Directive is only one aspect of WFD delivery that is incorporated into the CAP Pillar 1 but
compliance with other WFD related EU Directives (Basic Measures) is also included in the CrossCompliance system, e.g. Habitats, Birds, Drinking Water, Groundwater, Sewage Sludge, Dangerous
Substances and Plant Protection Products.
GAEC and CAP Greening requirements also contribute to broader sustainability issues such as
protection of the soils and soil carbon pools. Maintenance of permanent pasture at national reference
levels is also a key element of CAP 2014 -2020.
CAP Pillar II - Rural Development Programme (RDP) 2014-2020
The new RDP 2014-2020 will contribute to the cross cutting themes of innovation, climate change and
environment but must also be linked with national policies. The changes are consistent with the smart,
green, growth objectives of Food Harvest 2020.
The Rural Development Programme (RDP) 2014-2020 has a number of measures including a new
agri-environment scheme (GLAS), Knowledge Transfer schemes, On Farm Capital Investment,
Organic Farming, Beef Data and Genomics, Bioenergy scheme which are designed to deliver a
variety of actions aimed at enhancing the sustainability of our production systems. The agrienvironment scheme in particular contains a range of targeted actions aimed at biodiversity, climate
change and water quality. The new tiered entry system affords priority entry for specific habitats and
species, high status and vulnerable water areas and for intensive farmers selecting certain climate
beneficial actions. The knowledge transfer schemes will have a strong focus on disseminating best
practices across a range of issues thus promoting better resource efficiency at farm level.
Agricultural Sectoral Low Carbon Roadmap & Agriculture Adaptation Plan
The development of an Agricultural Sectoral Roadmap will examine in particular what the sector can
contribute to the overall national emissions target for 2020, through cost-effective mitigation measures
while maintaining economic sustainability and efficiency in the sector. The Teagasc Marginal
Abatement Cost Curve (2012) and the Rural Development Programme 2014-2020 will be very
important to informing this process.
DAFM is currently preparing an Agricultural Sectoral Adaptation Plan which will set out the actions to
equip decision makers with the skills and tools to be able to adapt to the impacts of climate change
which will ensure the climate resilience of the agriculture sector.
National Bioenergy Plan
The Plan recently published by DCENR takes account of the various strands of bioenergy that are
dealt with within DAFM, with a view to maximising their potential contribution to achieving renewable
energy targets for 2020 and beyond. These include: continued support for the Afforestation
Programme and the Bioenergy Scheme, encouraging innovative use of animal by-products as a fuel
to generate heat or electricity and support for the examination of opportunities to capture methane
from animal manures through anaerobic digestion (AD) (centralised or co-digested with other
biodegradable wastes).
Other Initiatives - Other measures such as the Bord Bia/Teagasc Carbon Navigator, Origin Green
and animal health and welfare measures are expected to contribute positively to greenhouse gas
abatement and sustainable resource use.
Ireland has also been providing leadership for a coherent approach to agriculture and land use in the
EU, and is also very active in the UN negotiations and in a variety of other international initiatives and
alliances on this crucial issue for the EU and for the planet. We will continue to play this role in the EU
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and international negotiations. We will also continue our efforts here in Ireland to ensure that our food
is sustainably produced and that we can prove this to our customers throughout the world.
Research
Ongoing research will continue to develop further measures and technologies to reduce the
environmental footprint from the agriculture sector through analysis of potential advancements in a
range of agricultural activities from animal husbandry, health, feeding and nutrient management. The
Department continues to monitor ongoing research both nationally and internationally in an effort to
find suitable mitigation technologies and approaches. There is close co-operation between DAFM
and the EPA in ensuring that their respective environmental research programmes are
complimentary.
5. Sustainability Considerations
In Ireland’s agriculture sector, the focus is on improving efficiency of production, on better breeding,
more efficient fertiliser use, and on better grass management and utilisation. Environmental
sustainability will be an essential requirement for food production in the decades ahead, in an era
when there is an ever growing need for increasing food security to combat global poverty, meet the
increasing and changing demands of an expanding world population and combat the impacts of
agriculture on the environment.
A guiding principle of sustainability is that environmental protection and economic competiveness can,
and should be considered as equal and complementary. One should not be achieved at the expense
of the other. The three pillars of sustainability - social, economic and environmental - are equally
important and carry commensurate weight as we continue to advance agriculture expansion while at
the same time combating climate change.
6. Challenges up to 2025
Ireland and the climate change challenge
The Government in its National Policy Position announced in April 2014, adopted an “approach to
carbon neutrality in the agriculture and land-use sector, including forestry, which does not
compromise capacity for sustainable food production”. The challenge will be how to maximise our
productive agricultural capacity while maintaining our commitment to sustainability with the Food
Harvest 2020 theme of “smart, green, growth” at its core.
The OECD (2012) estimates that by 2050, the world population will reach 9 billion (from
approximately 7 billion currently), 70% of whom will live in urban areas. This population level will
increase the demand for food and productivity per hectare and also place further pressures on the
environment. The OECD estimates that by 2050; energy usage will be 80% higher than 2010; global
water demand will have increased by 55%; and there will be increased pressure on agricultural and
forest land.
Challenges in meeting renewable targets achieving the 12% renewable heat target is particularly
challenging for 2020. Any increase in the renewable target for the period to 2030 would further
complicate what is already a very challenging target and raises further the need for a coherent and
integrated approach to the management of land resources to accommodate it, especially in the
context of food security. However both food security and bioenergy (security) based on the land
resource can be complementary if an integrated approach to AFOLU is developed. Therefore the
challenge will be to promote sustainable land management practices which maximise the contribution
of AFOLU sectors to renewable and GHG reduction targets. Such an integrated approach could
promote investment in agricultural measures, afforestation and renewable biomass including 2 nd and
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3rd generation biofuels leading to positive environmental and development returns to rural
communities including job creation and growth.
Research
In the context of 2050, existing and emerging research becomes critical in identifying what and how
carbon efficiency can be achieved. Ireland has significant expertise in relevant areas that can help put
our country in a leadership position on how to make agri-food less carbon-intensive and more
efficient.
Practice can be probed more deeply to disclose the potential for new low-carbon practices. There are
many win-win options for reducing green house gas that have not been acted upon by many farmers.
The challenge is to enable more farmers to adopt these practices.
Decisions about how land is used and its effect on emissions are not solely the preserve of
stakeholders within agriculture. In particular, forestry planting rates will have a critical bearing on
overall carbon neutrality. In addition, the willingness of farmers to invest in forestry and other biomass
crops, will depend on energy policy and growth in demand for biomass.
Air quality
The proposed amendment to the NEC directive will impose a further ammonia reduction target for
2030 which will pose challenges in light of expected growth in agricultural output. Ammonia
restrictions and the need to control nitrate losses to water, highlights the need for a coherent
approach to managing nitrogen use on farms and minimising losses to the environment.
Water
The status of water in Ireland is favourable when compared to other EU Member States. Nitrate levels
in water have also been reducing. However, with just under 50 % of water achieving the required
minimum ‘good status’, and the number of sites achieving ‘high quality status’ is falling, delivery on
the ambitions of the WFD will be a significant challenge. Agriculture, as a contributor of nutrients to
water, will be required to support the national ambition. In addition, intensification, particularly if
unevenly based, will result in additional pressures in specific geographical areas.
The new WFD Regulations establish a Water Policy Advisory Committee with national oversight and
responsibility for advising the Minster (for Environment) in relation to the 2 nd WFD cycle. The Minister
for Agriculture is represented at this Tier 1 governance level. River Basin Management Plans
(RBMPs) in the 2nd cycle will comprise a water status characterisation update, environmental
objectives and Programmes of Measures (PoMs) for all waterbodies in Ireland. These PoMs will
include Basic Measures, such as the Nitrates Directive, and also Supplementary Measures, such as
the CAP Rural Development Programme.
Ireland has secured derogation from the livestock manure limit of 170 kg of N/ha of the EU Nitrates
Directive, since 2007, as part of the National Action Programme, and this is administered by the
DAFM. There are approximately 5,500 farmers availing of a derogation each year and adhering to the
conditions required of derogation farmers. The Nitrates derogation is a critical element in achieving
FH2020 targets, in particular for the dairy sector.
It is anticipated that the number of derogation farms will increase significantly post removal of dairy
quotas. The resultant increasing pressure on water quality from agricultural sources (including
agricultural industries) is likely to be localised/regionalised. Thus mitigation measures will be required
at local level to ensure that any such intensification does not directly impact on water quality. Failure
to adequately address this increased risk to water quality could threaten support for a further
extension of the nitrates derogation, which is due for renewal in 2017.
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Biodiversity
Agriculture, utilising over 70% of the land area of the state, has a significant impact on the
achievement of bio-diversity ambitions, in particular within areas of critical importance such as Natura
2000 lands. Although significant progress has been made in the past decade, biodiversity loss has not
been halted in Ireland, as noted in the National Biodiversity Plan. In a 2013 report on the Status of EU
Protected Habitat and Species in Ireland, only 9% of the habitats examined had a “favourable status”,
50% were “inadequate” and 41% were assessed as “bad”. Of the 61 species examined, 52% were
assessed as “favourable”, 20% as “inadequate”, 12% as “bad” and a further 16% were “unknown”.
Ireland is already engaged with the Commission on a number of infringement cases arising from
failures to adequately address certain habitat and species losses.
Thus, despite the fact that Irish farmers are operating to high environmental standards under Cross
Compliance, Good Agricultural and Environmental Condition and voluntary agri-environmental
schemes, there are still a number of habitats and species associated with farmland appearing on the
Red list of conservation concern. Birds are a very good barometer of the health of ecosystems and a
recently published ‘Action Plan for Lowland Farmland Birds in Ireland 2011-2020’ highlighted that 11
species of lowland farmland birds were on the Birds of Conservation Concern in Ireland’s Red List
and a further 21 species were on the Amber List. A recently completed Prioritised Action Framework
for Natura lands (PAF) includes a more extensive list of priority habitats and species in need of
immediate conservation measures.
Agriculture can present a dual threat to biodiversity. Firstly, land abandonment/semi-abandonment of
marginal land can reduce the optimum habitat type for certain species. Secondly, land reclamation,
drainage and intensification can reduce habitats for a whole range of other species. Intensification of
marginal land under an expanding production scenario would present the greatest threat of further
biodiversity loss.
Agri-environmental schemes will have a role to play in mitigating some of these threats and meeting
commitments in Ireland’s Biodiversity Plan and the goals set in EU strategies. For policies and
measures to be effective they must be targeted appropriately to the regions most affected, and this
would mean concentrating efforts in areas affected by intensification or abandonment. Ongoing
monitoring and evaluation will be required to determine whether mitigating measures are sufficiently
effective or whether further policy interventions will be required to offset any losses. Failure to
adequately address biodiversity loss will undermine Ireland’s ‘green credentials’ and likely lead to
further infringement cases taken against Ireland by the Commission.
Summary
Ireland faces significant challenges to meeting existing environmental targets for air quality & climate
change, biodiversity and water quality targets from current production levels.
In an expanding production scenario as envisaged moving towards 2025, these environmental
challenges will be even greater, with increased inputs and competition for limited land resources
being key pressures.
If Ireland wishes to remain a world leader in the production, management and marketing of lowcarbon, high-quality sustainable food, then significant efforts will be required to maximise production
efficiency whilst minimising the effects on the environment.
Meeting GHG and ammonia emission reduction targets will be particularly challenging, but arresting
ongoing biodiversity losses and continuing the improvement of water quality while increasing
production will be equally demanding.
13
The environmental impact of FH2020 was considered to be slightly negative overall prior to mitigation,
and by inference further negative impacts could be associated with increased production levels
towards 2025, hence further mitigation will be required. A more detailed production modelling analysis
and environmental assessment would be required to better estimate the overall impact towards 2025.
Compliance with existing environmental legislation and key policy instruments such as CAP,
especially the RDP, will play an important role in enhancing and / or maintaining underlying
sustainable production systems. Ongoing scientific research and investment in knowledge transfer
leading to a high adoption rate of best practices at farm level will also be a critical success factor in
striving towards our environmental goals.
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APPENDIX A
Table 1: SWOT Analysis of issues facing Specialist Beef and Dairy Production in the context of
FH2025 – Farm Specific.
Beef Production from Suckler
Herd
Milk Production
Farm Specific Characteristics
Farm
size,
consolidation to date
Weakness: Small farm size, little
consolidation if any to date, Poor
profitability
may
provide
motivation for future consolidation
Opportunity: Farm size larger than
average, considerable consolidation
in last 20 years - scope for further
structural change
Soil/Climate conditions
Weakness: Inferior soil and
climactic conditions - higher
rainfall and lower temperatures,
shorter grass growth season
Strength: Superior (in Irish context)
soil and climactic conditions on
existing dairy farms. Longer grass
growth season, more trafficable
land, etc.
Labour intensity
production
Strength/Weakness: Low labour
intensity may be reflected in low
productivity,
however,
beef
production
can
be
readily
combined
with
off-farm
employment.
Weakness/Strength:
Milk
production
is
highly
labour
intensive, so it cannot be combined
with
off-farm
employment.
Expansion may require hired
labour. Equally the system is viable
without
off-farm
employment
income.
Farm Specialisation
Weakness: Little opportunity for
further specialisation on farm
since
farms
are
already
specialised,
diversification
pursued via off-farm employment.
Strength: Further specialisation
possible through removal of nondairy bovines and other land using
activities from dairy farms.
Intensity of Synthetic
Fertiliser Use
Strength/Weakness: From an
environmental perspective this is
a strength given the relatively low
synthetic N use ≈50kg/ha. From a
productivity perspective further
intensification would be desirable
Opportunity/Threat: Opportunity
for further intensification exists, but
higher synthetic N use per ha may
lead to environmental pressures
such as nitrate and ammonia loss.
Concentrate Feed use
per head
Opportunity/Threat:
Low
by
international
standards
given
importance of grass based
forages in Irish beef systems trend towards lower slaughter age
may lead to an increase in feed
use intensity. May have adverse
implications for production costs.
Higher feed use could open
opportunities to control methane
and/or ammonia emissions
Opportunity/Threat:
Low
by
international
standards
-higher
yields may lead to increases in feed
use and may be part of the set of
drivers of higher milk yields/cow.
Higher feed use may have adverse
implications for production costs.
Higher feed use could open
opportunities to control methane
and/or ammonia emissions
of
15
Beef Production from Suckler
Herd
Milk Production
Stocking rate per ha
Weakness: Low intensity < 1
LU/ha. Unlikely to intensify given
low rate of profit per ha and
dependence on subsidies.
Opportunity/Threat:
Moderate
stocking density <1.8 LU/ha provides potential to expand leading to higher stocking rates
though
better
grassland
management and/or higher levels
purchased feed use. Increased
inputs increases the risk of losses
to the environment thus threatening
water quality in particular.
Demographic viability
(% of farmers below
retirement age)
Weakness: Higher age profile on
beef farms, 1 in 5 farmers over
retirement age
Weakness: Somewhat lower age
profile on dairy farms- less than
10% of farmers over retirement
age. Age profile still a concern
given outlook for growth.
Lower age profile means they
should be more open to knowledge
transfer
Table 2: SWOT Analysis of issues facing Specialist Beef and Dairy Production in the context of
FH2025 – Market Related Considerations
Beef Production from Suckler
Herd
Milk Production
Market related considerations
Excessive Output Price
Volatility
Strength: Low price volatility due to wedge between World and
EU prices. Rising world prices
have limited impact on EU market,
risk of lower prices from tariff
reducing trade agreements.
Threat:
Price
volatility
Increasingly prevalent since 2006;
EU and World market integrated.
Low stock to use ratios and
Production variability in key regions
(EU & NZ) contributes to volatility
World Price
Price Ratio
Weakness: Continued wedge
between EU and World prices –
reflects poor competitive position
of EU beef on global markets –
limited opportunities for exports
and threat from imports
Strength: Close link between
World and EU prices - competitive
on world commodity markets opportunities for volume growth
vs. EU
Weakness: An increase in world
prices will not immediately affect
EU beef prices, due to continuing
tariff and non-tariff protection; the
low
proportion
of
income
dependent on market means that
effect of lower market prices on
income will be reduced
Opportunity/Threat: Small gap
between EU and World dairy
commodity prices means changes
in world market conditions are
reflected more immediately in EU
prices. As market returns are a
large component of dairy farm
incomes, world price changes more
immediately affect dairy incomes.
16
Beef Production from Suckler
Herd
Milk Production
Competing products on
demand side
Weakness: Existence of several
consumption substitutes - pig and
poultry meat in particular, mean
that increases in relative prices
will more immediately lead to
reduced demand for beef. Also, in
some regions of the world
religious and cultural preferences
will be for non-bovine meat and
proteins.
Strength: Few substitutes for dairy
fat and protein, mean real price
growth is less likely to lead to
significant reductions in demand.
Dairy Beef
Weakness: Beef produced from
the dairy herd in Ireland and
internationally - means that
adjustment
to
competitive
pressures will be slow due to dairy
beef being a co-product of milk.
Not applicable
Market Based Income
Share
Weakness –Low share of market
income in total income. High ongoing dependence on subsidies.
High cost of specialist beef
production
Strength: Subsidy payments are
significant, larger farm size and
positive margins mean share of
market income in total farm income
is high.
Table 3: SWOT Analysis of issues facing Specialist Beef and Dairy Production in the context of
FH2025 – Policy Related Considerations
Beef Production from Suckler
Herd
Milk Production
Policy related considerations
KT interaction & Rate
of tech adoption
Weakness: Low rates of tech
adoption - reflect low levels of
profitability, prevalence off-farm
employment as well as higher age
profile
and
other
structural
characteristics
Strengths: Higher rates of tech
adoption, greater capacity of tech to
contribute to higher incomes - &
greater importance of market
income in total income
Implication of
fragmentation
Weakness:
Time
costs
associated
with
animal
movements - but these are
relatively infrequent. May hinder
capacity to convert to other
activities, e.g. dairy or contract
rearing of replacements due to
bio-hazard control implications
Weakness: Places limitations on
size of milking platform relative to
total farm size. This may hinder
farm level expansion of milk
production.
farm
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Land
requirement
(sale/purchase/rental)
Beef Production from Suckler
Herd
Milk Production
Weakness
or
Opportunity:
Demand for land for beef
production is likely to be limited
due to low levels of profitability in
sector - opportunities at local level
for the renting-out of land to
expanding farms
Threat: Increasing competition for
land due to Expansion in milk
production. May lead to elevated
land prices (low availability) in
areas where dairy production is
already
dominant.
Increasing
competition for land will also result
in intensification in some areas thus
presenting a risk to biodiversity.
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