Costa Rica: transfer account in a mixed economy and under rapidly changing demographic conditions Luis Rosero-Bixby, Paola Zúniga-Brenes, Andrea Collado Acknowledgedments This research was carried out in the Centro Centroamericano de Poblacion in collaboration with the Observatorio del Desarrollo both from the University of Costa Rica. It was partially funded by a IDRC-ECLAC grant. Mariam Cover, Henry Vargas, Carlos Carrillo and Alexis Kauffman from the Costa Rican Central Bank provided unpublished data and expert advice on the National Accounts. The National Institute of Statistics and Census (INEC) provided the micro-data and documentation of the 2004-5 Income and Expenditure Household Survey. NTA network members provided useful comments and advice, especially Ronald Lee, Andrew Mason, Timothy Miller, Sang-Hyop Lee, An-Chi Tung, and Amonthep Chawla. Background of Costa Rica Costa Rica is a small Central American country with a population of about 4.5 million inhabitants in a territory close to 20 thousand square miles that makes it the third most densely populated country in the continental Americas, after El Salvador and Guatemala. Costa Rica racial and cultural homogeneity, political stability, and a Constitution that abolished its armed forces in 1949, are distinctive features of the country. In the colonial period, it was one of the poorest and most out of the way territories of Spanish America. During the beginning of nationhood, its population constituted a relatively homogeneous society of poor peasants. The incorporation of the country into world capitalism (in the second half of the 19th century, by means of coffee exports) was more successful and achieved at a lower social cost than that of the other countries of the region. During the decade of the 1940s, important social reforms were carried out, and the old oligarchic model, inspired in the European liberalism, was replaced by a social-democratic, welfare-oriented system of government. A revolution in 1949 consolidated democracy and a public sector that has strongly favored social programs in education, labor, social security, and health (Seligson, 1980). Costa Rica is classified by the World Bank as a middle income country. Its social development indicators are among the best in the Americas. Although the country completed the demographic transition, population aging has not taken place yet. Costa Rican economy Costa Rica is considered a textbook case of “mixed” economy in Latin America, halfway between the Chilean case of market economy and the Cuban case of socialist economy (MesaLago, 2000). The Costa Rican government owns important sectors of the economy, including banking, telecommunications, insurance, petroleum and even alcohol production, although in the last two decades the importance of governement in the economy has declined. The public sector currently hires around 15% of total employment (ILO, 2009). This mixed economy model has been most successful in achieving social development than economic development. According to World Bank (2008), the per capita income in Costa Rica is similar to Latin America average: $5.600 in 2007 ($10,700 PPP). The Costa Rican economy is substantially more oriented toward the external sector, with exports representing 51% of GDP, compared to 1 25% in Latin America. After a severe crisis in 1981, Costa Rica reduced substantially the size of the government and diversified its exports from a few agricultural products (mostly coffee and bananas) to a variety of goods and services, including microchips and tourism, the two most important sources of hard currency nowadays. GNP growth in Costa Rica has been close to 5% per year on the average since 1990, compared to a population growth close to 2% per year. This has resulted in a robust, but not exceptional, economic development. In contrast, during the 1980s, the country went through a decade of stagnation with GDP growth of 2.4% per year, about the same as the population growth (World Bank, 2008). Government revenue is based on indirect taxes. However, taxes are not completely regressive, because of exemptions in sales taxes and a narrow base of specific consumer taxes (Zuniga-Brenes, 2008). At the end of the 1980’s the country began a process of economic liberalization, especially through reduction in tariffs. The Costa Rican fiscal charge (net of social security) increased from 16.3% to19.8% of GDP, between 1988 and 2004. The composition of government revenue also changed: particularly reducing dependence from trade taxes, which declined from 25% of total taxes revenue to 7% in 2004 (Zuniga-Brenes, 2008). Unemployment is low: 4.6% in 2007 (INEC, 2008), lower than the Latin American average of 8.7% (UN, 2007). The share of people working in small enterprises (informal sector) in 2003 was 39% of total employment, below the Latin American average, but above Chile or Brazil (ILO, 2007). A rapid increase in participation of women in the labor force has characterized Costa Rica in the last few decades. While 22% of women aged 20 to 29 participated in the labor force in 1963 according to the census of that year, in 2005 the corresponding figure is 54% according to the national household survey of this year. Historically, Costa Rica has been one of the countries with the lowest inequality income distribution in Latin Americawith a Gini index of 0.484 in 2007 (CEPAL, 2009). However inequality has increased in the last two decades. Costa Rican social development UNDP ranks Costa Rica 48 in the world (fourth in Latin America) in its Human Development Index (HDI). However, the country ranks 60 in the economic component of HDI in contrast with a rank 25 worldwide (first in Latin America) in the life expectancy component of the Index. Social development indicators in Costa Rica are consistently superior to the indicators of economic development. Costa Rican achievements in health, education and social security are in part results of a welfare state with no expenditures in defence or weapons (Mata & RoseroBixby, 1988). Costa Rica is, with Cuba and Chile, the country with the highest health status in Latin America. The Costa Rican life expectancy of 79 years at birth is the second highest in the Americas (Canada is first), higher than in the United States (World Bank, 2008). Costa Rica has an almost universal public health insurance and care system provided by the government’s Caja Costarricense del Seguro Social (CCSS, the Costa Rican Social Security Fund) since 1941. Health insurance, along with retirement and disability insurance, is mandatory for all workers. Public health insurance covers all health care needs, including prescription drugs, of the worker and his or her family with services provided free of charge (there are no copayments) by CCSS health care units. Mandatory payroll-based deductions from employees, employers, and the government fund the system. For those with no formal jobs, including 2 peasants, farmers, petty merchants, or artisans, and those with no-jobs at all, there are two other ways of getting into the public health insurance and care system of the CCSS: (1) buying voluntary insurance from the CCSS or (2) being insured by the government, who pays the premiums to the CCSS for poor or destitute individuals from a special fund (named FODESAF), established for this purpose in the early 1970s, in a means-tested program (Barahona-Montero, 1999; Durán-Valverde, 2002; PAHO, 2004; and Martinez-Franzoni & Mesa-Lago, 2003). The Costa Rican public health insurance covers about 90% of the population and about 95% of elderly people (PAHO, 2004). The few uninsured individuals (a self selected healthier group) can still obtain health care from the CCSS units for a fee or free if institutional social workers verify the patient has no means of paying. The CCSS is by far the main health insurance and health care provider in Costa Rica. There is, however, a private sector of health care providers that includes few hospitals, clinics and laboratories, and a large set of private physician offices, dentists and pharmacies. People who go to these services usually have to pay out-ofpocket for them. Private health insurance plans are rare and caters to high income households and employees of transnational companies. Private providers are attractive to people with enough income to pay for them given that public services may have long waiting lists and overcrowded clinics and hospitals (PAHO, 2004). Costa Rica also had a history of high development in education. By the end of XIX century the country expanded the primary education coverage. As a result of considerable investments in education the illiteracy rate decrease 75% between 1864 and 1927, reaching comparable levels to Canada (Molina, 2007). Illiteracy rate (population 15 year and older) currently is about 4%. Young illiteracy (ages 15-24) is less than 2% (UNESCO, 2008). Costa Rica has universal coverage in primary education, and in comparison with rest of Central America, it has the highest secondary net enrolment rate (64% in 2007). However, this enrolment is below the Latin American average (CEPAL, 2009). The age specific data on the proportion with complete secondary education from the 2000 census shows steady generational gains in cohorts born up to about the 1960s, from less than 10% among those born before 1925 o 35% in the 1965 cohort. The early 1980’s crisis stalled, and even reversed, this trend and cohorts born in the early 1970s dropped to 30% levels with complete high school. Cohorts born in 1980 and later (finishing high school toward the end of 1990s and later), have surpassed the 35% mark. These generational changes may be important to interpret some age curves in current transfer accounts, distinguishing age effects from generational effects. A recent government conditional cash transfer program to keep the young in high school will probably accelerate the generational gains in the proportion with complete secondary education and will reduce the gaps between poor and rich populations and rural and urban areas (PEN, 2008). In contrast to the health care system, the Costa Rican education system is dual, with important participation of the private sector in all educational levels (PEN, 2008). A third leg in Costa Rican social programs is its generous pension system. Among the population aged 65 and over, 63% receive a pension and an additional 8% are married to a pensioner. Old-age (or disabled) individuals are entitled to a pension from job contributions, inheritance, or from a basic, non-contribution system for persons below the poverty line. Close to one-third of old-age pensions are from the non-contribution system. It is mandatory for all salary workers and employers to contribute to a social security pension fund. Self-employed workers also participate in this fund with subsidized contributions. Age of retirement is usually 62 years for women and 65 years for men (special funds such as those for teachers or workers of 3 the judicial sector may have younger retirement ages). Another fund (FODESAF) created with a salary tax paid by employers pays for non-contributive pensions. These are typical pay-as-yougo systems that operate as intergenerational transfers: young generations pay current pensions in the understanding that in the future their pensions will be paid by younger generations. However, since the year 2000 there are also complementary pension funds administered for private or public operators and functioning as individual saving accounts (Mesa-Lago & Bertranou, 1998; Fernandez & Robles, 2008). Costa Rican demography and family Costa Rica essentially completed its demographic transition by 2002, year when its fertility reached replacement levels (INEC and CCP, 2008). As mentioned, Costa Rican life expectancy is the second highest in the Americas, higher even than in the USA. The total fertility rate of 2.00 in 2005 is lower than in the USA (2.04 births) and it is the second lowest in Latin America after Cuba. Costa Rica is also one of the few Latin American countries with a substantial stock of international immigrants. Ten percent of the population is foreign born, a figure not that different to the 12% in the USA (UN Population Division 2006). Because the demographic transition was so quick and recent, a population aging process has not yet occurred: Only 5.6% of Costa Ricans are aged 65 and over, although this will change very quickly in the next few decades, surpassing 20% by the year 2050 (INEC & CCP 2008). Although demographic aging has no taken place yet in Costa Rica, the age structure of its population has been changing substantially since fertility started to decline in the 1960s. The change so far has inflated the center of the age-pyramid and narrowed its base. Children and youth under 20 years of age, who represented 57% of the population in 1965, are now 38%, whereas adults in ages 20 to 64, who represented 39% of the 1965 population, are 56% of the 2005 population. In the future and by the year 2050, this percentage of adults will not change, the proportion of children and youth will further decline to 23% and the elderly population will increase from the current 6% to 21% (INEC & CCP, 2008). The demographic dependency ratio in figure 1 summarizes these changes in the age-structure of the population. Two features are worth noting in the figure: (1) the sharp decline in the demographic dependency ratio from 153% in 1965 to a floor of 60% in 2020 and a partial recover up to 89% in 2060; and (2) the substantial change in the composition of age-dependent population: more than 50% of the dependent population will be elderly individuals by 2050, compared to 6% in 1965 or 13% in 2005. These huge transformations in the age structure were a key motivation for this study of the transfer accounts. [Figure 1 about here] Intergenerational transfers in Costa Rica are framed by living arrangements in households where elderly adults often co-reside with their grown up children (Puga et al, 2007). In a comparative study of Costa Rica, Spain and England, only 10% of Costa Rican elderly live alone compared to 23% the Spaniards and 33% the English. In contrast, while 57% of Costa Rican elderly live with a child, the corresponding figures in Spain and England are 27% and 11%. An important feature of co-residence of parents with grown up children in Costa Rica is that children are the ones who overwhelmingly (96%) live with their parents (never left the parental household or returned to it), no the other way around (parents moving to a child’s household). These patterns are in part dictated by demography: high fertility in the past and the corresponding high supply of children as well as a young age structure within the elderly population: Costa Ricans aged 65 and over have five children alive and 70.5 years of age on the average in 2005. 4 Data and methods Data sources Transfer accounts require having estimates of accounts’ totals and age profiles. The micro-data from the most recent Costa Rican Household Income and Expenditure Survey (ENIGH) were the base to estimate the age profiles, whose totals were adjusted to the National Income and Product Accounts (SNA) as estimated by the Costa Rican Central Bank. The National Census and Statistics Institute (INEC) provided the micro-data for households and individuals of the ENIGH (INEC, 2006). This is a survey to a national representative sample of 4,200 households and 15,600 individuals, conducted by INEC from March 2004 to April 2005. The survey provides detailed information about income of the individuals, including transfers and earnings from assets, use of selected services such as health and education, and household’s consumption. We modified the original weighting factors of this survey in order to replicate the Costa Rican population by single ages by December 2004 according to the most recent official estimates (INEC and CCP, 2008). Our estimates of health and education consumption used additional information about per capita costs in health (CCSS, 2007) and education (MEP, 2007) services. The data on National Income and Product Accounts and public transfers come from the Costa Rican Central Bank. We used information for the year 2004 available on the Web (BCCR, 2007). Officers in charge of the SNA at the BCCR provided unpublished estimates of mixed income, public transfers, asset income, and taxes. Costa Rican particularities adapting NTA methods We identified the individual with the highest income in the household as the household head and used it instead of the hierarchic household head reported in the survey. Macro aggregates were adjusted for taxes. Export taxes and subsidies and other taxes and subsidies to production were allocated to labor and asset income using the rule of 2/3 and 1/3 respectively. Indirect taxes were subtracted from the consumption aggregate. The operating surplus of incorporated business was estimated by difference between the reported total operating surplus minus mixed income and household-operating surplus (imputed rent from owner-occupied housing estimated from the ENIGH). Education expenditures include formal and informal education by sector (public and private) and it were allocated within de family based on a regression method. The health profile was estimated also using a regression method: household’s health expenditures are regressed on inpatient and outpatients care for age groups. Consumption of durables (except own house) was not estimated because of lack of proper information in the ENIGH. Public transfers from government to households include: i) transfers in kind (public consumption) and ii) transfers in cash. The transfers in cash came from unpublished data from BCCR, following SNA codes. We reclassified these transfers according to NTA groups: i) education, ii) health, iii) social protection, iv) other social protection, v) others, and vi) rest of the world. We did not take into account health transfers in cash, such as payments for maternity leave. 5 The workers’ contributions to the social security pension and health insurance systems were considered transfers to the government; i.e. taxes to the salary. The workers contributions to individual pension funds were considered savings. Asset based re-allocations were estimated using the NTA methodology. Public asset reallocations follow taxes profiles and private asset re-allocations follow mixed income plus property income plus household operating surplus age profiles as self-reported in the ENIGH. Private interest expenditures are based on what people reported to pay for loans (it includes interest plus payoffs). There is no information about public interest expenses. The contribution of employers to the social security system and other employer paid fringe benefits (to IMAS, FODESAF, and INA) were included as proportion of the salary in the labor income estimates. Following the NTA methodology, we show some age profiles measured in “income units”, which are the simple average of labor income in the age bracket 30-49 years. An income unit in Costa Rica 2004 is US$ 4,724 per capita per year. The mixed income estimate A critical issue for Costa Rican estimates of labor income and other accounts was the lack of data at the aggregated level of “mixed income”, a component of the operating surplus that is not reported by Costa Rican national accounts. The System of National Accounts defines “mixed income” as the “surplus or deficit accruing from production by unincorporated enterprises owned by households…” (UN, 1993). It should separately account for: i) the return to work and the revenue coming from the production surplus and ii) assets, liabilities and personal expenses of the owner from those of the firm. It is therefore a mix of returns to labor and capital that in part should thus be allocated to labor income estimates in the NTA methodology. Costa Rican Central Bank publishes data on aggregate operating surplus without showing its three components: mixed income, operating surplus of corporations, and imputed rent from owner-occupied housing. Central Bank officers in charge of the national accounts provided us a preliminary, un-official estimate of mixed income of 445,441 millions of Colones or 15% share of the net operating surplus (table 1). This figure, however, seemed too low compared to other Countries in the Americas, except Brazil: 28% share in Chile, 39% in Mexico, 38% in Uruguay, and 25% in the USA (estimates available in the NTA project by August 2008). [Table 1 about here] Given that the un-official Central Bank estimate seemed too low, we generated several estimates of mixed income from the ENIGH data under selected scenarios or assumptions as shown in Table 1. These scenarios combine four definitions of unincorporated business and two allocations of imputed wages, as well as an estimate that considers all independent income in the survey as mixed income. We chose as the best estimate of mixed income the one from the ENIGH that considers firms with less than 10 workers as unincorporated businesses and allocates imputed wages to wages. This estimate results in a 22% share of the operating surplus, i. e. still below the USA (25%) or Chile (28%). The amount of life-cycle deficit (as well as other transfer accounts) and the surplus agespan are sensitive to the choice of mixed income estimate. For example, with the Central Bank estimate, the life cycle deficit would be 9% larger and the surplus age-span of 27 to 54 years would be the same. With the highest estimate of mixed income (34% share of operating surplus), the life cycle deficit would be 18% lower and the surplus age-span would be one year earlier and 6 one year later (26-55 years old). An earlier estimate with a different set of assumptions of a substantially larger mixed income amount resulted in a 43% lower life cycle deficit and a surplus age span from 24 to 57 years (Rosero-Bixby and Robles, 2008). Selected Costa Rican results Table 2 summarizes the estimates of selected transfer accounts for large age groups. It shows totals and per capita figures, as well as, in the lowest panel, the percentage funding of consumption. According to these estimates, Costa Rican economy operates with a life cycle deficit of 3.1 billion dollars ($740 per capita per year), which is about 24% of consumption. Asset reallocations (asset income and debt, public and private) are the mayor source of deficit’s funding. [Table 2 about here] The only age group with a surplus is 30-49 years. Actually, the exact age-span with a surplus goes from 27 to 55 years (figure 2A). The deficit for the young (under 30) population is huge: almost four billion dollars, five times the deficit of about 800 millions for people over 50. In per capita terms, however, the reverse is true: the deficit of elderly (65 plus) individuals is 37% higher than of individuals under 20. Demography is the driving force that makes that the lower per capita deficits of the youth result in substantially higher total deficit at early ages in the Costa Rican economy: there are almost seven under-20 persons for each over-65 persons. However, as shown in figure 1, this ratio is quickly changing and by the year 2050 it will be one to one. Private intergenerational transfers, mostly within the family from parents to children fund most (73%) of the consumption at young ages (in some more developed countries public transfers play a bigger role at these ages). That is not the case at old ages in which direct transfers from children to parents are, on balance, non-existing. Public transfers of a generous pension and health care system pay half the consumption (two thirds of the deficit) of elderly Costa Ricans. In contrast with other societies, such as Taiwan, where direct transfers from children to parents pay as much as 40%, or even 50%, of consumption of the elderly population. This reliance in public transfers of elderly Costa Ricans has been possible until now because of a relatively small size of this population. As population aging is quickly occurring, one wonders whether this Costa Rican model will be sustainable. Asset reallocations resulted surprisingly important in Costa Rican society. Even among relatively young adults net asset income adds substantially to labor income (29% in the age bracket 30-49 and 49% in 50-64). The highest per capita values occur at pre-retirement ages. About one-fourth of consumption of the elderly population is funded by returns from savings and investments made early in live (or inherited assets). Although this figure is not as high as in more developed economies, where often is above 50%, it is high enough to suggest that asset accumulation is substantial in Costa Rica and it could be an important force for economic growth in the future as population gets older, in what is known as the “second demographic dividend”. The age-span in which average Costa Ricans on average earn from labor more than they consume is surprisingly narrow: only twenty-eight years from the ages 27 to 55 (Figure 2-A). In other more traditional societies a surplus shows up at substantially younger ages. In both less and more developed societies the surplus of labor income over consumption often continue well above age 60. This narrow surplus age span is in part result of the welfare-state model of development followed by Costa Rica. Generational effects might also influence it: the earning potential of older generations was somehow limited by their relatively low educational levels 7 compared to their children as well as by their substantially lower participation of women in the labor force. [Figure 2 about here] Generation effects (as opposed to aging effects) may also be the explanation for the peculiar shape of the consumption curve at middle ages. The depression in per capita consumption among individuals in their late 30s and 40s might be an echo of the economic crisis of the early 1980s that could shape their consumer behavior when they were adolescents or young adults. Certainly, some of these cohorts have substantially lower than expected educational levels as mentioned before. Part B of Figure 2 shows for the government the equivalent of the life-cycle deficit. Surplus ages, in which individuals pay more in taxes than the public transfers they receive, go from 22 to 57 years. The ending surplus age is somehow low because of generous government transfers to older individuals and also because of limited taxation of wealth in Costa Rica. These two elements cause also huge per capita deficits at old ages. In contrast, the government deficit at young ages is relatively small, a reflection of the somehow limited expenditures in public education and the big role of families fulfilling consumption needs of the young. Because of this relatively smaller deficit, the sharp decline in the demographic dependency ratio that has taken place in Costa Rica (Figure 1) has probably benefited less to government than to the families in what is known as the “first demographic dividend”. By the same token, the big deficits at old ages will result in negative demographic dividends for the government sooner than for families (Rosero-Bixby and Robles, 2008). Figure 3 summarizes the Costa Rican consumption structure. It shows that at the “private other” (food, housing, clothing, recreation and so on) component of consumption is the most important at all ages. This “private other” component of consumption is the responsible for the aforementioned depression in the curve of individuals at middle ages. Costa Rican public health and education consumption is substantially more important than the private ones. The figure also illustrates the growing importance of health consumption, particularly public health, with aging. [Figure 3 about here] Conclusions on Costa Rican estimates The most striking findings in the Costa Rican transfer accounts are: (1) the big role of government transfers to support consumption and deficits of the elderly population; (2) correspondently, the lack of net transfers from children to old parents; (3) the substantial intrageneration income reallocations, especially as source of income at pre-retirement ages; (4) the narrow age span with a surplus, especially the early age (55 years) at which Costa Ricans start having a labor income deficit; (5) the peculiar depression in the consumption curve at middle adult ages that could be a reflection of generational effects of the 1980s economic crisis; and (6) the huge absolute deficit at young ages driven by a population age structure that is still mostly young. Some of these results are manifestations of a welfare-oriented type of government in this middle-income country with a mixed economy, which has been able to achieve some outstanding levels of social development, especially in the health and social security safety net of its elderly population. The sustainability of some of the Costa Rican achievements and practices is, however, challenged by a rapid process of population ageing that will occur in the next few decades. 8 Big demographic transformations in the age structure and generational balances also offer windows of opportunity for Costa Rica. The precipitous reduction in the young people component of the dependency ratio has probably improved the well being of Costa Ricans, especially within families where most transfers took place to fund the deficit of the young. This is known as the first demographic dividend, which could be amplified if government and families take advantage of it by investing in human capital. A second demographic dividend may also occur with the inflation of the population in pre-retirement ages and some older ages, whose accumulated assets could be invested in the formation of physical capital to improve labor productivity. Although international and over-time comparisons in this book show that the age profiles of the life-cycle deficit, intergenerational transfers and intra-generational reallocations are rather stable, they are not immutable. Policy makers can modify them, particularly public transfers and taxes, to take advantage of opportunities and ameliorate risks brought about by the rapid change in population age structures. There is also the issue that these age-profiles do not reflect pure aging effects but also generational changes that by definition will modify cross-sectional age profiles at several points in time. 9 References Barahona Montero M (1999). “El desarrollo social”. 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Estimates of mixed income under selected scenarios A 1 2 3 4 B 1 2 3 4 C 445,441 As share of operating surplus 15% 639,011 669,233 424,172 397,791 22% 23% 14% 13% 895,622 968,173 669,223 397,791 1,011,264 30% 33% 23% 13% 34% Colones (millions) Scenarios Central Bank estimate ENIGH-based estimates Deducted salary allocated to wages Firms with less than 10 workers Firm with less than 30 workers Firms registered in the National Registry Firms with formal accounting The imputed wage is allocated to both Firms with less than 10 workers Firm with less than 30 workers Firms registered in the National Registry Firms with formal accounting All independent income from the survey 13 Table 2. The life cycle deficit by age groups. Costa Rica 2004 Total 30-49 50-64 Population (thousands) 4,232 1,634 751 1,168 Distribution (percentage) 100 39 18 28 Totals (millions of 2004 US$) Life-cycle deficit 3,130 3,383 508 -1,555 Consumption 12,815 3,621 2,640 3,949 Labor Income 9,685 238 2,132 5,504 435 10 245 6 102 1,696 1,594 692 909 217 102 784 -682 -1 -681 692 246 446 458 -13 Life-cycle reallocations Asset reallocations Net transfers Domestic public transfers Private transfers Life-cycle deficit Consumption Labor Income Work Asset reallocations Private transfers Public transfers 3,130 3,383 2,923 -101 207 3,485 6 833 201 2,651 20-29 508 406 102 -252 354 -1,555 1,589 -3,143 -1,032 -2,112 Per capita (thousands of 2004 US$) 740 2,070 676 -1,332 3,028 2,216 3,516 3,382 2,289 145 2,840 4,714 Life-cycle reallocations Asset reallocations Net transfers Domestic public transfers Private transfers Consumption 0-19 740 2,070 691 -62 49 2,132 1 510 47 1,622 7 -3 73 23 234 2,827 3,902 3,713 3,668 886 676 -1,332 234 2,827 540 1,360 1,803 1,007 136 -2,692 -1,569 1,820 -336 -884 -3 1,872 472 -1,808 -1,566 -51 Financing consumption (percentages) 100 100 100 100 76 23 2 0 65+ 81 15 13 -10 14 139 40 -53 -26 100 100 94 46 -40 0 24 27 -1 50 Figure 1. The demographic dependency ratio. Costa Rica, 1970-2060 Dependency ratio % 150 Age 65 + Age < 20 100 50 1970 197 0 197 5 1980 198 0 198 5 1990 199 0 199 5 2000 200 0 200 5 201 0 201 5 2020 202 0 202 5 203 0 203 5 2040 204 0 15 204 5 205 0 205 5 2060 206 0 0 Figure 2. The life cycle deficit for the population and the government. Costa Rica 2004. A. The Popu lati on Inc ome units* Labor inc ome 1 Cons umption .8 .6 .4 .2 0 B. The governm ent .6 Revenues Transfers .5 .4 .3 .2 .1 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 Age * Average income at ages 30-49 = US$ 4,124 per year 16 60 70 80 90 Figure 3. Components of per capita consumption by age. Costa Rica 2004 Income units 1 .8 .6 .4 .2 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Age Private educ. Private health Private other Public educ. Public health Public other 17 90