OPERATIONAL HARMFUL ALGAL BLOOM FORECASTING:
A Gulf of Mexico Reality and the Prospect for a National Capability
Kathleen M. Fisher1, Mark S. Vincent1, Peter J. Stone1, Richard F. Edwing1, Michelle C. Tomlinson2, and
Richard P. Stumpf2
1
NOAA, National Ocean Service, Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Service (CO-OPS),
Silver Spring, MD
2
NOAA, National Ocean Service, National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science (NCCOS), Silver Spring,
MD
Harmful algal blooms (HABs) have long impacted the national shores by creating economic distress for
fishery and tourism industries, producing human health concerns, and causing ecological damage to
marine animal populations. In order to aid in combating nearly annual impacts in the eastern Gulf of
Mexico, NOAA developed and transitioned an ecological forecast system for HABs from research status
to routine and reliable operations along the Gulf coast of Florida in 2004. NOAA’s Gulf of Mexico HAB
Operational Forecast System (HAB-OFS) has since been very successful in alerting coastal resource
managers to the potential occurrence of new HABs and changing bloom conditions. Annual forecast
assessment studies have identified nearly 100% weekly utilization of HAB-OFS forecasts by subscribing
managers and scientists, and greater than 70% accuracy of forecast skill. The success of the HAB-OFS in
the Gulf of Mexico introduces the opportunity for operational HAB forecasting in additional regions
afflicted by HABs. The FY10 President’s Budget includes funding for NOAA’s National Ocean Service
(NOS) to develop and implement operational forecasts for HABs. Thus, NOS is actively exploring the
development of a national HAB forecasting capability, with a primary initiative towards gathering
functional requirements and collaborating with regional HAB experts. This effort includes investigating
technologies and strategies that are capable of supporting a national infrastructure encompassing models,
earth observations, data synthesis, forecast skill, and utility to users. Pending funding, NOS will work
over the next 5 years toward developing a fully operational framework that meets regional and national
requirements for HAB forecasting.