3 Demand for livestock products
From an agricultural standpoint, dominant in the next 20 years will be the increased de- mand for food that
an additional 2.5 billion people will create as the world’s population approaches 8 billion. This growth will
come from the developing regions; growth in devel- oped countries will be slight (Table 4). The additional
population will create greater de- mand for food generally. But it will be pro- portionately greater for
livestock products than for cereals because urban people prefer nutrient-rich, easy-to-cook meat and dairy
foods, and developing country populations will be increasingly urbanised, reaching 50% in 2020 as
compared with 30% in 1980. They will also have increased purchasing power with incomes projected to rise
at 3% per annum in sub-Saharan Africa and 6% in Asia and Latin America (Cranfield and others 1998).
Demand for meat will grow only 0.6% in developed countries compared with an annual increase of 2.8% in
developing countries (Table 4). This will raise the annual demand for meat in developing countries from 89
million metric tonnes in 1993 to 188 million in 2020 (Delgado and others 1999).
Developing countries will then account for 63% of the world’s meat consumption, compared with 47% in
1993.
Milk demand will grow especially fast in developing countries—at 3.3% annually. Again, demand will be
virtually stagnant at 0.2% in developed countries (Table 4). By 2020, annual demand for milk in developing
countries will have risen to 391 million metric tonnes from 164 million in 1993, accounting for 51% of the
global demand compared with 38% in 1993.
Globally, two-thirds of the increased de- mand will be for pork and poultry meat, but the type of meat
demanded will vary signi- ficantly among regions, in part because of cultural and religious restrictions on
eating pork (Table 5). Most of the increased demand for pork will come from East and South-East Asia with
little increase in South Asia, West Asia North Africa and sub- Saharan Africa.
As a commodity, cattle are the most important type of livestock in Latin America and the Caribbean, sheep
and goats in sub- Saharan Africa and South Asia, pigs in East Asia, and poultry in East Asia and Latin
America (Table 6).
Table 4 Projected global annual, total and per capita growth in consumption of meat and milk
Region,Projected annual growth of consumption 1993–2020,Total consumption in 2020,Per capita
consumption in 2020
Region
Meat (% per Milk (% per Meat
Milk
Meat (kg)
Milk (kg)
year)
year)
(million t)
(million t)
Developing 2.8
3.3
188
391
30
62
world
Developed
0.6
0.2
115
263
83
189
world
World
1.8
1.7
303
654
39
85
Source: Delgado and others (1999)
Between 1993 and 2020, sub-Saharan Africa is expected to have the highest growth rates worldwide for
meat and milk produc- tion, but East Asia will have the highest in- crease in milk consumption at 5.1%
annually, indicating expanding exports, particularly to China (Table 7).
Projections for growth in demand for meat and milk by region indicate that the fastest growth will be in
Africa, albeit from a low base, with demand for meat and milk in- creasing at 3.5 and 3.8% per annum, compared with global increases of 1.8 and 1.7%, respectively (Table 7). Other regions with large projected
increases in demand are South-East and South Asia.
Table 8 indicates the rates of increase that will be required to meet the 2020 demand projections. India,
already the world’s largest dairy producer, will have the largest increase in demand for milk at 4.3%, giving
it both the highest milk consumption per capita in a developing country (125 kg per annum) and the highest
total production (160 million tonnes per annum). Nevertheless, India’s per capita annual milk consumption
will still be 64 kg less than consumption in developed countries (Delgado and others1999).
Table 5 Projected demand growth rates for meat and milk (% per annum, 1993–2020)
Region
Pork
Poultry Sheep
Beef
Milk
East Asia
2.8
3.6
0
3.2
2.8
South Asia
18.6
21.7
4.2
3.7
4
South-East Asia
3.2
2.6
0
4.2
3
Latin America,
2.6
2.6
18.6
2.2
1.9
Caribbean
West Asia, North Africa 0
2.6
2.6
3.5
3
Sub-Saharan Africa
–0.1
2.6
2.6
4.2
3
Developing countries
0.8
3.2
2.6
2.9
3.2
Developed countries
0.8
1
0
0.4
0.3
Source: derived from Delgado and others (1999)
Table 6 Projected food consumption trends of various livestock products
Region
Projected
Total consumption
Per capita consumption
1993–2020
1993
2020
1993 (kg)
2020(kg)
(% per year) (million t)
(million t)
Developed world
Beef
0.4
32
36
25
26
Pork
0.3
38
41
29
29
Poultry
1
26
34
20
25
Meat
0.6
99
115
78
83
Milk
0.2
250
263
196
189
Developing world
Beef
2.8
22
47
5
7
Pork
2.8
22
47
5
7
Poultry
3.1
22
49
5
8
Meat
2.8
89
188
21
30
Milk
3.3
164
391
38
62
Source: Delgado and others (1999)
Table 7 Projected regional trends in consumption of animal-source foods
Region
Pork
Poultry
Beef
Total meat
China
Other East
1993 2020
29
61
1
2
1993 2020 1993 2020
6
15
2
6
1
2
0
1
1993
33
24
Milk
Feed grain
use
2020 1993 2020 1993 2020
85
6
17
78
178
8
30
2
7
20
India
0
1
0
1
2
5
5
8
66
160 3
14
Other
0
0
0
1
1
3
8
5
62
41
1
4
South
South-East 3
7
3
6
1
3
16
16
3
11
12
30
Asia total
34
73
11
26
8
18
86
122 167 231 101 246
LAC
3
6
7
14
10
18
48
39
101 77
55
92
WANA
0
0
3
6
2
5
16
15
57
51
29
66
SSA
1
2
1
2
2
6
9
12
19
31
3
5
Developing 38
81
21
49
22
47
88
188 168 391 194 409
Developed 36
41
26
34
32
36
97
115 245 263 442 519
LAC – Latin America and the Caribbean; WANA – West Asia and North Africa; SSA – sub-Saharan Africa
Source: Delgado and others (1999)
Table 8 Projected annual percentage growth in meat and milk consumption 1993–2020
Region
Projected growth
Total consumption in
Per capita consumption in
1993–2020
2020
2020
Meat (% Milk (%
Meat
Milk
Meat (kg)
Milk (kg)
per yr)
per yr)
(million t)
(million t)
China
3
2.8
85
17
60
12
India
2.9
4.3
8
160
6
125
Other E Asia 2.4
1.7
8
2
67
20
Other S Asia 3.2
3.4
5
41
10
82
SE Asia
3
2.7
16
11
24
16
LAC
2.3
1.9
39
77
59
117
WANA
2.8
3
15
51
24
80
SSA
3.5
3.8
12
31
11
30
LAC – Latin America and the Caribbean; WANA – West Asia and North Africa; SSA – sub-Saharan Africa
Source: Delgado and others (1999)