Spatial and temporal distributions of intense cyanobacteria blooms in Taihu Lake, China between 2000 and 2008 from MODIS observations Abstract A novel approach was used with MODIS data between 2000 and 2008 to document and study the spatial/temporal patterns of intense cyanobacteria blooms in Taihu Lake, a medium-sized (~2300 km2) eutrophic lake in the eastern China that receives nutrient and water inputs from the Yangtze River as well as point and non-point sources from local industry and agriculture. The approach first derived a Floating Algae Index (FAI), based on the medium-resolution (250- and 500-m) MODIS reflectance data at 645-, 859-, and 1240-nm after correction of the Ozone/gaseous absorption and Rayleigh scattering effects, and then objectively determined the FAI threshold value (FAI = -0.004) to separate the bloom and non-bloom waters. Compared with other traditional methods including NDVI (normalized difference vegetation index) and EVI (enhance vegetation index), the approach is less sensitive to changes in environmental conditions such as aerosol type and thickness, sun glint, and solar/viewing geometry, and therefore enabled a consistent time-series to be derived. The approach was validated by concurrent higher-resolution (30-m) Landsat-7/ETM+ observations and also by the long-term patterns observed in known areas in the lake. The bloom distribution patterns, their annual occurrence frequency, timing, and duration were documented and studied for each pre-defined lake segment and also for the lake as a whole. Overall, bloom patterns and statistics were different between 2000-2004 and 2006-2008, with 2005 as the transition year. Using 25% area coverage as a gauge for significance, significant bloom event never occurred between 2000 and 2004 or occurred only several times for the entire lake (excluding East Bay) as well as for the NW Lake, SW Lake, and Central Lake. Between 2006 and 2008, for most of the lake segments and for the lake as a whole, the annual frequency of significant blooms increased from the 2000-2004 period, with earlier timing and longer duration. Occasionally the bloom covered more than half of the lake during these years. The year of 2007 showed exceptional patterns due to bloom-favorable wind, water level, and possibly temperature. The bloom created enormous social-economical burden to local residents and government, suggesting that despite the significant effort and resource put in the water-quality management from the past decade, it requires a long-term, continuous, and persistent management plan to bring back the lake’s water quality to the 2000-2004 level, not to mention to the pre-industry boom era in the 70s. Nevertheless, the novel, multi-year series of consistent MODIS data products provide a baseline to monitor the lake’s bloom condition, one of the critical water quality indicators, on a weekly basis as well as to evaluate its long-term trend in the future. Keywords: cyanobacteria bloom, blue-green algae, floating algae, water quality, Taihu Lake, remote sensing, MODIS, floating algae index (FAI), NDVI, EVI Introduction Kun – you can focus your writing on the first 3 below. 1. About Taihu Lake: location, size, average depth, weather (dry-season and wet-season, precipitation in centimeters); chlorophyll-a concentration range; 1 CDOM absorption range; TSM range, Temperature range. Other water qulity parameters (e.g., COD, oxygen)? Long-term trend in these parameters? 2. Water quality event: 2007 event is an extreme – describe briefly (cite the Shi and Wang EOS paper or other reference). Other historical events? 3. Current water quality monitoring: In situ methods (what’s available? How many stations? What do they measure? How often? Where are the data? Any reference?); Remote sensing methods (who? What? Most focused on the concentrations of chl, CDOM, TSM, water clarity/turbidity. Few studied floating algae using NDVI – describe how they did it) Introduction Coastal eutrophication is a serious global problem, especially in developing countries where rapid-growing agriculture and industries provide excessive nutrients and other pollutants through point and non-point sources to lakes, estuaries, and other coastal waters. As a result, coastal resources are under perceptible stress, with significant degradation in water quality, biodiversity, and fish abundance. For example, since 1998, both the number and size of toxic algae blooms as well as the toxic species in Chinese coastal waters in the East China Sea, Yellow Sea, and Bohai Sea have increased significantly (Zhou and Zhu, 2006). Likewise, Brand and Compton (2007) found increasing trend in Karenia brevis bloom frequency and intensity from the 50s to the 2000s on the west Florida shelf. The problems present difficult challenges for both scientists and coastal managers who often found that traditional techniques are inadequate to cover the range of space and time scales involved in assessing environmental conditions, documenting the long-term trends in water quality, and in studying anthropogenic and climate influence as well as the various processes taking place in coastal waters, estuaries, and lakes. For example, there is still ongoing debate on whether the observed trend in Brand and Compton (2007) was biased by an observer effect. Satellite remote sensing provides rapid, synoptic, and repeated information on water state variables (physical and biogeochemical) to avoid the undersampling problems in traditional techniques. Indeed, over the past three decades, there have been significant advances in technology and algorithm development to use satellite ocean color measurements to study coastal ocean water quality (e.g., Dekker, Lee, Hu, Kuster, etc.). However, most of the work has been focused on turbidity and water clarity. Due to the inherent problems in atmospheric correction and bio-optical inversion in estuarine waters where sediments and other non-living constituents (e.g., tripton, colored dissolved organic matter or CDOM, and shallow bottom) often play a dominant role in affecting the spectral reflectance of the water, to date there has been no published work in establishing a long-term, reliable record of phytoplankton blooms in any estuaries based on satellite data. In this paper, using a novel method and 9-year operational MODIS (MODrate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) data over a heavily polluted and eutrophic lake in eastern China, Taihu Lake, we developed a long-term record of intense cyanobateria blooms in the lake. Our objectives are three fold: 1) to provide reliable statistics of intense blooms to help understand the changing water-quality state of this socio- 2 economically important lake. The results will serve as baseline data for future evaluation of the lake’s water quality. Indeed, despite coordinated effort in monitoring and management in the past decade, such a record is still lacking; 2) to better understand the 2007 bloom event that caused significant public burden and economic loss; 3) to demonstrate the global applicability of this approach in similar estuaries or lakes with heavy pollution. We will first briefly introduce our study area and review the existing techniques for water quality assessment, followed by description and validation of our approach to quantify intense cyanobateria blooms. Then, the detailed statistics of the bloom patterns between 2000 and 2008 are presented and discussed, with particular focus on the 2007 bloom event. Finally, we discuss the implications of these findings to the long-term water quality assessment in Taihu Lake and in other similar water bodies. Study Area Taihu Lake (30°5'-32°8'N and 119°8'-121°55'E) is the third largest freshwater lake in eastern China, with surface area of 2,338 km2 and average water depth of 1.9 m (Fig. 1). It is located in semi-tropical monsoon climate, with high wind during winter but more precipitation during summer (Fig. 2). Average annual precipitation is about 1,100 to 1,150 mm, with average water temperature of 15-17oC (Baosuo Jia et al., 1999). The lake is traditionally divided in seven major segments including four embayments: Zhushan Bay, Meiliang Bay, Gong Bay, and East Bay (MAO Jingqiao, 2008) (Figure 1). The lake serves as the main freshwater source of 3 million [how many exactly?] people in the nearby Wuxi City, and it also provides irrigation to local agriculture. From the 1980’s the lake becomes highly eutrophic (Ling Ding et al., 2007). At the end of 1998, local government enforced strict management practices (the so called “ZERO Action”) that set up nutrient standards for all wastewater discharged into the lake. However, it has been shown that the “ZERO Action” had little effect on reducing the eutrophic state (Huang Wenyu et al., 2002), possibly due to recycled nutrients from the benthic sediments. Between 1991 and 2007, total phosphorus, total phosphorus and suspended solids from several discrete monitoring stations showed increasing trend with decreasing water clarity, especially during 2001 to 2007 (Zhu Guangwei, 2008). Concentrations of chlorophyll-a (Chl) and total suspended matter (TSM) show clear, opposite seasonal patterns (Fig. 2). Whthin the lake, the most eutrophic area is Meiliang Bay (Ronghua Ma, Jinfang Dai, 2005) which is the freshwater source of Wuxi City. During May - June 2007, extensive blooms of the blue-green algae (what’s its species name?) occurred in Meiliang Bay, resulting in rotten tap water in the city with nearly 1 million people affected (Duan Hongtao et al., 2008; Wang and Shi et al., 2008). The event has been reported extensively by local news media and received wide national and international attention. Preliminary studies (who?) suggested that the event resulted from an earlier-than-usual algae bloom due to warm winter, low water level, and favorable wind. However, there has been no report on exactly how/where the bloom initiated and evolved. Clearly, a thorough understanding of the algae blooms together with a comprehensive monitoring and management plan are required to improve the lake’s water quality. Indeed, 3 a monitoring network has already been implemented, where water samples at pre-defined, fixed stations are collected and analyzed periodically (Ref?). Routine ship surveys have also been used between 2002 and the present (Ref?). These provided water quality data for nitrogen, phosphorous, dissolved oxygen, Chl, TSM, temperature, and other pollutants. Of particular interest are the Chl and TSM measurements because they represent the water’s biological state and physical state (water turbidity), respectively. Although in theory both Chl and TSM can be derived from remote sensing measurements, in practice this has been difficult for estuaries and lakes due to errors in atmospheric correction and optical complexity in these waters. Several regional algorithms have been proposed from limited field data (Ronghua Ma, Jinfang Dai, 2005a&b; Zhu Lingya et al., 2006), yet their applicability in deriving long-term timeseries is unclear. Because in the intense blooms the blue-green algae often form thick mats on the surface that appear as land vegetation, simple methods using NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) and EVI (Enhanced Vegetation Index) have also been proposed from limited field and satellite data (Xu Jingping et al., 2008; Chen Yun, Dai Jinfang, 2008). However, Hu (submitted) showed that both NDVI and EVI are sensitive to aerosols (type and thickness), sun glint, and solar-viewing geometry and it is therefore difficult to derive a consistent time-series. This is different from the algae bloom event between May and July near Qingdao (China) where the algae formed distinguishable thin slicks which can be clearly recognized and delineated from the MODIS NDVI imagery (Hu and He, 2008). Ma et al. (2008) applied a band-ratio method (859 versus 555 nm) to MODIS 250-m resolution data to separate bloom and non-bloom waters, and then derived a long-term distribution pattern of the blooms in Taihu Lake. Because of lack of atmospheric correction, similar limitation as faced by NDVI and EVI applies. Clearly, an improved method is required to establish a consistent long-term record of the bloom distributions. Data and Method This work relied mainly on the operational MODIS data, but less-frequent Landsat7/ETM+ data at 30-m resolution were also used to validate the MODIS observations. MODIS Data General Processing MODIS Level-0 (raw digital counts) data from both Terra and Aqua satellites were obtained from the U.S. NASA Goddard Flight Space Center (GSFC). Although Terra was launched in 1999, global Level-0 data started from February 2000. Because of the large data volume (> 9000 data granules covered Taihu Lake), the quick-look browse images were first visually examined, and those with minimal cloud cover were downloaded and processed. Between February 2000 and December 2008, about 630 near-cloudfree Level0 granules were downloaded. The Level-0 data were converted to calibrated radiance data using the software package SeaDAS (version 5.1). Then, gaseous absorption and Rayleigh scattering were corrected using computer software provided by the MODIS Rapid Response Team, based 4 mainly on the radiative transfer calculations from 6S (Vermote et al., 1997). The resulting reflectance data, Rrc() where is the wavelength of the MODIS bands (469, 555, 645, 859, 1240, 1640, 2430 nm), were geo-referenced to a cylindrical equidistance (rectangular) projection using computer programs developed in house. The geo-reference errors were less than 0.5 pixel. Three types of imagery were generated from the geo-referenced Rrc(). The first was the Red-Green-Blue “true-color” composite, using 645, 555, and 469-nm as the Red, Green, and Blue channels, respectively. The 500-m resolution data at 555 and 469-nm were resampled to 250-m resolution (to match the resolution at 645-nm) using a “sharpening” scheme similar to that used for Landsat data. The second was the simple NDVI image, derived as NDVI = [Rrc(859) – Rrc(645)]/[Rrc(859) + Rrc(645)]. The purpose was to provide a simple image set for quick examination, although it is known that NDVI suffers from aerosol and sun glint effects. The last image type was a Floating Algae Index (FAI), introduced by Hu (submitted). For MODIS data, FAI is defined as FAI = Using model simulations and MODIS measurements, Hu (submitted) showed that compared with NDVI and EVI, FAI was much less sensitive to changes in environmental conditions (aerosol type and thickness, sun glint, solar/viewing geometry). Although the index was designed to search for floating algae in the open oceans, these characteristics suggest that FAI may be used to derive a long-term bloom pattern and trend in Taihu Lake. An example of the three image types is shown in Fig. 3, where images from three consecutive days (5/19/2008 – 5/21/2008) are presented. The RGB images suggest that the atmospheric conditions on 5/19/2008 and 5/21/2008 were similar, but hazy atmosphere and sun glint were present on 5/20/2008. Using the Cox and Munk (1954) surface roughness model and NCEP wind data, sun glint reflectance Lg (Wang and Bailey, 2001) was estimated as 1.710-5, 0.05, and 0.0 sr-1 for the three days, respectively. Even under this extreme condition on 5/20/2008 (Lg = 0.05 sr-1 and Rrc(1640) = 0.139), floating algae can still be clearly delineated from other waters (see below for the delineating method) and the results appear consistent with the two adjacent days. Note that Lg = 0.01 sr-1 is regarded as significant in ocean color data (too large to be correctable) and Rrc(1640) > 0.0275 would be recognized as cloud by a relaxed cloudmasking method (Wang and Shi, 2006). Clearly, the FAI method is robust for virtually all conditions in this region (thick aerosol, frequent sun glint during summer). In contrast, because the higher sensitivity of NDVI to aerosol and sun glint influence (Fig. 3 NDVI image on 5/20/2008), it is practically more difficult to use NDVI to derive a consistent time series under most circumstances. Landmask 5 Cloudmask FAI threshold The most critical task in delineating floating algae from other waters was to determine the threshold value in the FAI imagery. One could use trial-and-error together with visual analysis, but this was subjective and therefore arbitrary. Instead, we used FAI gradients and statistics to determine this critical value. For each FAI image (with land and cloud masked), a gradient image was generated. A pixel’s gradient was defined as the FAI difference from the adjacent pixels in a 3x3 window. Histogram of the gradient image was generated and the mode determined. It was found that the pixels associated with the mode could delineate floating algae very well. This is understandable because at the algae and non-algae boundary there should be a sharp change (large gradient) in the FAI values. The mean FAI value of all pixels associated with the mode was used to represent the threshold value (FAIthresh) to delineate floating algae. The method was applied to the entire image series and it worked well for most of the images (from visual examination), especially when extensive floating algae were found. However, in images where floating algae patches are small, due to fewer pixels pooled in the histogram the method to use the mode no longer makes sense. Therefore, instead of using a different FAI threshold value for each image, all FAI threshold values (after excluding those with none or small floating algae patches) were pooled together to compute the histogram as well as the mean and standard deviation (Fig. 4). Then, a universal FAI threshold was determined as the mean minus 2 times of the standard deviation, which was approximately -0.004. This value was chosen as a time-independent FAI threshold to delineate floating algae from other waters. Indeed, a sensitivity analysis (not shown here) suggested that using FAIthresh = -0.004 and FAIthresh = 0.0 would result in nearly identical statistics and spatial/temporal patterns, except that the former typically led to 5-10% higher floating algae area coverage. The FAI threshold (-0.004) was validated using Landsat-7/ETM+ data. The 30-m resolution data were downloaded from the United States Geological Survey and processed in a similar fashion as with MODIS. Because of the higher resolution, the floating algae in Landsat imagery show spatial texture that can be clearly visualized (Fig. 5), therefore can be manually outlined and used to validate the MODIS results. Fig. 5 shows an example of such comparison. The manually-derived floating algae outlines (red lines in Fig. 5b) in the Landsat image and the objectively-derived floating algae outlines (blue lines in Fig. 5b) in the concurrent MODIS image are nearly identical, suggesting the validity of the FAI threshold method. Although in certain areas when the algae may be submersed in water due to wind and current so they only appear in Landsat RGB image but not in MODIS FAI image (once the algae are below the water surface their signal in the 859-nm band decreases rapidly), these areas and their associated errors are small. Indeed, further comparison using other Landsat/MODIS image pairs when both were cloud free showed very similar results between the two different measurements, with area 6 coverage to within ±10% (Table 1). Therefore, a FAI threshold of -0.004 was used for the entire MODIS image series to derive the floating algae distributions and statistics. MODIS Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Results Discussion and Conclusion Algae as an indicator responds to a change in environmental conditions very quickly (Coesel et al., 1978), and dynamic growth of algae is influenced by the inner physiological characteristics as well as the exterior stimulating factors, including light, temperature and nutrients (Ling Ding et al., 2007). Acknowledgement References References: Alicia Vignolo, Water quality assessment using remote sensing techniques: Medrano Creek, Argentina,Journal of Environmental Management, 81 (2006) 429–433. Baosuo Jia et al., Analysis of Rainstorm Flood During Meiyu Period of Taihu Lake in 1999, Hydrology 4 (2001) 57-59. Caren E. Binding, Spectral absorption properties of dissolved and particulate matter in Lake Erie Remote Sensing of Environment, 112 (2008) 1702–1711. Chen Yun, Dai Jinfang, Extraction methods of cyanobacteria bloom in Lake Taihu based on RS data, Journal of Lake Sciences, 20(2008) 179-183. 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