DRAFT
Tom Ritchey
2003-01-28
Subproject proposal for Integrated Approach to Risk Management
Email: aleksandar.jovanovic@mpa.uni-stuttgart.de Tel: +49-711-658-3007
1.1 Subproject full title: Developing Integrated Uncertainty Models for Risk Management using
Morphological Analysis
1.2 Subproject Acronym: MARisk
1.3 RISKMAN Research Area: RA1: Integrated Approach to Risk Management
2.1 Proposing organisation: FOI (Swedish Defence Research Agency)
2.2 Contact person name: Per-Erik Johansson (Tom Ritchey)
2.3 Address: SE 901 82 Umeå, Sweden
2.4 Tel: +46-90-106645 (or +46 70 649 6645)
2.5 Fax: +46-90-106802
2.6 Email: per-erik.johansson@foi.se (thomas.ritchey@foi.se)
2.7 Web site: www.foi.se
2.8 Participating organisations and companies, name and country:
Other members of the RISKMAN-project
3. Proposal summary
A truly useful Integrated Approach to Risk Management must go beyond the identification and
assessment of risk (in its quantitative, probabilistic sense) and deal with the wider problem of genuine
(non-probabilistic, non-quantifiable) uncertainty. For this purpose, a general and flexible non-quantified
modelling method is required in order to both analyse and integrate the principal contexts involved, with
respect to the complex interrelationships between the non-resolvable uncertainties.
General morphological analysis (MA) is proposed a method for modelling (or meta-modelling) and
integrating technical, environmental, human, financial and other risk management contexts. Uncertainty
is treated by developing a very large outcome space (a morphological field representing “total field
coverage”) and then systematically constraining the field by identifying contradictory conditions. In this
way, it is possible to create an “uncertainty laboratory”, in which uncertainties in different risk
management contexts can be treated as parameters, and their impacts on each other examined.
This can only be done with computerised support. For this purpose, a computer system which supports
the entire analysis-synthesis process, which morphological analysis involves, has been developed at FOI
(MA/Casper: Computer Aided Scenario and Problem Evaluation Routine). Since 1996 we have carried
out c. 40 projects utilising morphological analysis for studying uncertainty, and for developing scenario
and strategic planning laboratories. (Project list and reference list available on request.)
4. Objectives
The objective is to study and model the relationships between risk management variables in different
contexts, e.g. technical, environmental, human and financial, and to develop an integrated “genuine
uncertainty laboratory” as a tool for risk management planning and strategy development. The first
objective is the knowledge that can be generated by developing such a laboratory. The second objective
is the testing and distribution of the laboratory for practical use as a “virtual” modelling and planning
instrument.
5. Deliverables
The project should result in a prototype, computer supported, “if – then” uncertainty laboratory, in which
any one or more variables within the laboratory can be employed as drivers, allowing the user easily to
identify and explore different option spaces (outputs) depending upon different given constraints
(inputs). This would represent a significant new phase in uncertainty modelling and uncertainty
management, and a necessary complement to quantified risk analysis and risk management.
The product package would include the software to run the laboratories, a number of morphological
fields representing the uncertainty spaces for a number of different activities, training material and user
manual.
6. Justification and potential impact
Practical, Integrated (“full field”) uncertainty models and laboratories would have a number of positive
impacts on industry, the economy and public safety. It can be used both for education and training, for
scenario development and strategic planning, for public and private rescue services, municipal
authorities, environmental organisations and industry. It can also serve as an important instrument of
dialog between government authorities, rescue services and professional organisations concerned with
public safety.
7. Description of the work
The development of a computer aided, integrated uncertainty model/laboratory will be carried out in
small expert working groups using the method of general morphological analysis. General
morphological analysis (MA) is a non-quantified modelling method for structuring and analysing
complex socio-technical problem fields. It has been developed in order to facilitate group work and cooperation both between different scientific disciplines and between actors in different sectors and at
different societal levels.
RTD: One of more international expert groups will be formed in order carry out a series of 2-3 day
workshops in developing morphological fields which will represent the parameters and major contexts
of the integrated uncertainty model. The areas of uncertainty involved in these different contexts must
first be specified and mapped out for each context (as well as is possible) and then the contexts related to
each other in an integrated configuration space. The configuration space is then systematically evaluated
for internal consistency. These steps are iterated in a number of workshops to secure expert validation,
and in order to apply the model instrument to different types of activities. Timeframe: c. 18 months.
DEM: Demonstrations of the prototype laboratories can be given at tight intervals – e.g. after each series
of workshops. Alternatively, a reference groups can be supplied with the general laboratory software
(MA/Casper), and updates/new versions of the developing uncertainty models can supplied after each
workshop or on request. Timeframe: both in parallel with RTD activities, and 1-2 months after the
prototype is fully developed.
TRA: Training of coordinating and education personal can be carried out both during the development
of the modelling instrument, as well as in ad hoc groups when the prototype instrument is finished.
Timeframe: parallel with RTD and DEM activities, with possible 1-2 months extension.
8. Partners involved
The expert group mentioned above should consist of experts on technical, environmental, human and
financial risks. These experts can probably be found among the partners in RISKMAN. It would be
advantageous for the experts themselves to be involved in other RISKMAN projects (in other Research
Areas) so as to provide for project cross-pollination.
9. Resources for total subproject and for each partner (resources needed: personnel, equipment etc;
costs, work effort in person months)
Personnel
System development
Work group meetings
275 000 Euro
40 000 Euro
105 000 Euro
(about 16 man-months)
Total funding: c. 420.000 Euro
10. Duration (starting date, duration in months)
Start: 01.01.2004
24 months
11. Financial plan
12. Other issues (e.g. ethical, gender, EC policy related issues)
KH\RISKMAN PLANS\Call-For-Subprojects-01-03