Uncertainty Analysis Methodologies Workshop
“All models are wrong but some are useful”*
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Organised by Data and Models Working Group
Chaired by: Manfred Kleidorfer (manfred.kleidorfer@uibk.ac.at), Robert Sitzenfrei
(robert.sitzenfrei@uibk.ac.at), University of Innsbruck, Alma Schellart
(a.schellart@sheffield.ac.uk), University of Sheffield
When: Saturday, September 19, 2015, 09:30 AM to 04:00 PM
Venue: Chateau Mont-Sainte Anne
Fee: Free (yes it’s free, however, lunch is not included in this fantastic price)
Description
One of the thematic areas of the JCUD Data and Models Working Group
(http://iwgdm.wikispaces.com/) has been uncertainties in data and models, and their
impact on model results and model application. After workshops in Lyon (Novatech
2007), Edinburgh (ICUD 2008), Tokyo (UDM 2009), Belgrade (UDM 2012) and Lyon
(Novatech 2013) we would like to follow this tradition and again bring together people
working on data and model uncertainties, methods for calibration and validation, or
people who experienced problems in reproducing measured data.
Accurate modelling of water quantity and/or water quality parameters in water bodies is
essential as water resource management decisions are generally based on these
predictions. However, the uncertainties in model results can be extensive and not well
understood. Several methodologies in various fields have been proposed to assess
uncertainty, and we are looking for people who have tested any type of uncertainty
analysis application for their applicability to hydrological and water quality studies.
This workshop is open for everyone: model users, model developers, experienced
researchers and people new to this field of study are all invited to share their
enlightenment with us.
We have presentations from different research groups in the morning. We hope for
honest and open discussion about problems in different modelling studies. We do not
want to look for the good results and hide our poor ones but we want to increase our
understanding by discussing problems. This should help us to point out the requirements
for future research.
In the afternoon we want to identify possibilities of collaboration and joint papers, see
how (if) we progressed from the “Why don’t our models work” workshop in 2013 (see
http://iwgdm.wikispaces.com/ for minutes) and give you some time to discuss and plan
collaborations in smaller groups.
* Box, G. E. P., and Draper, N. R., (1987), Empirical Model Building and Response Surfaces,
John Wiley & Sons, New York, NY.
Workshop programme
9:30 – 09:40
09:40 – 10:00
10:00 - 10:20
10:20 – 10:40
10:40 – 11:00
11:00 – 11:20
11:20 – 11:40
11:40 – 12:00
Welcome to the workshop, and brief introduction of the Data and Models
Working Group, Simon Tait, University of Sheffield.
Social scenario modelling/deep uncertainty Christian Urich, Monash
University.
An overview of the discussions and outcomes of the Watermatex
Uncertainty workshop. Lina Belia, Chair of IWA Design and Operation
Uncertainty.
Quantifying Uncertainty in Integrated Catchment Studies. Alma Schellart
and Ambuj Sriwastava, University of Sheffield.
Discussion and questions
Tea/coffee break
Global sensitivity analysis for stormwater modelling. Giorgio Mannina,
University of Palermo.
On recent approaches to assess model structure and input uncertainty.
Omar Wani, EAWAG
12:00 – 12:20
Surrogate models for fast simulation of drainage systems – getting uncertainty
into the picture, Luca Vezzaro, DTU- Technical University of Denmark.
12:20 – 12:30
12:30 – 13:30
13:30 – 14:30
Discussion and questions
Lunch
Group discussions on uncertainty analysis methodologies and their
suitability for urban drainage modelling.
Tea/coffee break
Introduction to joint papers published previously and progress on
initiatives from the 2013 ‘Why don’t our models work’ workshop, by
Manfred Kleidorfer, University of Innsbruck.
Break-out groups discussing collaborations and potential for joint papers,
moderated by Manfred Kleidorfer.
14:30 – 14:45
14:45 - 15:00
15:00 – 16:00