9B.13 NORTH AMERICAN QUARTERLY SOURCE TO RECEPTOR TRANSPORT PARAMETERS: TRANSPORT SPEED, HEIGHT, AND DIRECTION FREQUENCY Bret Schichtel* and Rudolf Husar Washington University St. Louis Missouri 1.0 INTRODUCTION The relative source contribution of mass to a receptor, source receptor relationship (SRR), is due to a combination of transport and kinetic processes. The specific processes controlling the source contribution vary in space and time, and can only be determined by breaking the SRR into characteristic transport and kinetic parameters. In this work, we focus on the transport components deriving parameters characterizing the speed of transport, vertical dilution, and transport direction frequency from regional scale source to receptor transport calculations. These transport parameters are presented as North American quarterly averages for 1991 – 1995. This extended abstract further defines the relevant transport parameters and calculation methodology, and illustrates them using third quarter 1995 results. America. A source plume can be viewed as a direct simulation of a smoke stack’s plume of inert material. The plumes are calculated by continually releasing three tracer particles from each source every two hours, and tracking their movement for 12, 24, 48, or 96 hours (Figure 1). At any instance in time, the plume identifies the downwind three dimensional location of particles that were previously released from the source. Thus, the relative source particle contribution to a receptor is simply the sum of the plume’s particles in the receptor volume divided by the total number of plume particles. 2.0 METEOROLOGICAL DATA AND MODELED SOURCE PLUMES The transport parameters are calculated using synoptic scale meteorological fields from the National Meteorological Center’s Nested grid Model (NGM) (Rolph, 1992). The NGM database contains three dimensional wind vectors with a horizontal resolution of ~160 km and ten vertical layers up to seven kilometers at a two hour time step. The lowest layer has a height of ~160 meters. The NGM data is used to drive a Monte Carlo particle dispersion model (Schichtel and Husar 1996). The model simulates atmospheric transport and diffusion by tracking the movement of multiple “particles” released from sources. The NGM wind fields are used to advect the particles in three dimensional space, while the intense vertical mixing that takes place within the atmospheric boundary layer is simulated using a Monte Carlo technique. The model is used to generate 12, 24, 48, and 96 hour source plumes every two hours from 504 sources evenly distributed over most of North *Corresponding author address: Bret A. Schichtel, Washington Univ., CAPITA, St. Louis, MO 63130-4899; e-mail: bret@mecf.wustl.edu Figure 1. A noon St. Louis plume on August 16, 1992. 3.0 TRANSIT PROBABILITY DENSITY FUNCTION, Pt The source to receptor transport is quantified via the transit probability density function (pdf), Pt, the relative source contribution of an inert species to surrounding receptors per unit receptor volume (Lamb and Seinfeld 1973; Schichtel and Husar 1996). Surface transit pdfs are created for each source plume by calculating the plume’s relative source contribution to the first layer of NGM grid cells and normalizing by the grid cell volume. Column transit functions are also calculated from the plume’s relative source contribution to each NGM grid column and Figure 2a. St. Louis 2 PM column transit pdf during quarter 3 1995. The transit pdf was calculated using 2 day plumes. normalized by the grid cell area. The semi-hourly transit functions are then aggregated together over specified time ranges. Figure 2 presents the average 2 PM St. Louis column and surface transit pdfs during the third quarter (July, August, September) of 1995 and a maximum plume lifetime of two days. 4.0 CHARACTERISTIC TRANSPORT PARAMETERS The magnitude of the transit pdf is inversely dependent on speed of transport to the receptor and the degree of vertical dilution of particles at the receptor, and it is directly dependent on the frequency mass is transport in the direction of the receptor. The transit pdf is also inversely dependent on the source to receptor distance. This dependence is not associated with transport, but is due to the geometry of the problem. All three transport parameters vary with each source receptor pair. However, single characteristic transport speeds and heights are derived for the speed and vertical dilution parameters. The transport parameters are derived such that the transit pdf can be reconstructed from them via the equation: Pt ij = Fij / (Uj * Hj * rij) (1) where Pt Surface transit pdf F Transport direction frequency U Characteristic transport speed H Characteristic transport distance r Source to receptor distance Figure 2b. St. Louis 2 PM surface transit pdf during quarter 3 1995. The transit pdf was calculated using 2 day plumes. i j Receptor index Source index 4.1 Characteristic Transport Speed, U The transport speed is a measure of the horizontal dilution of mass from a source, and the extent of horizontal transport of the mass in a fixed amount of time. The transport speed for each source to receptor pair is estimated from the source to receptor distance divided by the average particle age at the receptor. A single characteristic source transport speed is calculated by averaging together all source to receptor transport speeds weighted by the number of particles at the receptors. The influence of the transport speed on the transit pdf is evident by the outer boundary of the two day column transit function in Figure 2a. This boundary marks the maximum distance the plume particles travel in two days. If the transport speeds were larger, then the transit pdf would extend beyond this boundary spreading the plume particles over a larger area. This horizontal dilution reduces the overall transit pdf. The third quarter 1995 North American transport speed fields calculated from 2 PM plumes for each modeled source are presented in Figure 3. As shown, the lowest speeds (4-5 m/s) are throughout the south from Southern California to South Carolina. In this region a band through Texas and Oklahoma have speeds greater than 5 m/s. The highest transport speeds are in northern US and southern Canada where they are between 6-7 m/s. Figure 4. North American 2 PM characteristic transport height during the third quarter of 1995, assuming a pollutant lifetime of 2 days. 4.3 Transport Direction Frequency, F Figure 3. North American transport 2 PM speeds during the third quarter of 1995, assuming a pollutant lifetime of 2 days. 4.2 Characteristic Transport Height As a plume is transported from the source to the receptor the particles are vertically diluted via intense afternoon mixing. The greater the extent of vertical dilution the fewer particles at the surface, and the lower the transit pdf. The extent of the vertical dilution can be quantified by way of a characteristic transport height, H, which is the average plume particle height. Figure 4 presents the third quarter 1995 North American characteristic transport heights calculated from 2 PM plumes for each modeled source. The largest transport heights are in the Southwest where they can exceed 2000 m in Utah and Arizona. The transport heights are lower and more uniform throughout the Eastern US, 1200 – 1600 m. The transport direction frequency, F, is the probability that the plume particles will be transported in a given direction. Plume particles transported away from a source normally do not follow straight trajectories. Therefore, the transport direction frequency is dependent on the direction and radial distance from the source, and will vary for each source receptor pair. The transport direction frequency is calculated by solving equation 1 for Fij: Fij = Pt ij * Uj * Hj * rij (2) In addition to the directional frequency of transport, Fij encompasses differences between the characteristic transport speed and height and the transport speed and height for each source receptor pair. The 2 PM transport direction frequency, during the third quarter of 1995 and a maximum plume lifetime of two days, is presented in Figure 5. As shown, the transport from St. Louis occurs most frequently to the north – northeast. 5.0 Future uses The database of transport parameters constitutes a resource that is ideally suited for investigating transport causes of modeled source contributions. Also, this database can be used to investigate the relationship between transport and air quality. For example, by sorting and aggregating the transport parameters based upon the air quality at a source region questions such as “from what direction does transport occur and at what speed when the ozone concentrations are high?” can be asked. The answers to such question can provide insights into the likely directions and upwind distances that source regions can contribute to the air quality. The source contribution of mass to a receptor is due to a combination of transport processes carrying the source mass to the receptor and kinetic processes chemically transforming and physically removing the mass during transport. If it is assumed that meteorology is not significantly influenced by trace constituents in the atmosphere, then transport is taken as being independent of the kinetic processes. By breaking the source receptor relationship into characteristic transport and kinetic parameters it is possible to identify causal factors for modeled source contributions, as well as identifying potential receptor regions of a source’s emissions. In this work, we focus on the transport component of the source receptor relationship, and deriving transport speed, transport direction, and vertical dilution parameters from source to receptor transport . These transport parameters are presented as North American seasonal averages during 1991 – 1995. If it is assumed that meteorology is not significantly influenced by trace constituents in the atmosphere, then transport can be taken as being independent of the kinetic processes with equal probability of being transported in any direction and remain at the surface, then the transit pdf to a receptor at distance r from the source is proportional to the ratio of the receptor length, l, and the circumference of a circle with radius equal to the source to receptor distance, r, The chance of any randomly selected plume impacting a receptor will decrease as the receptor distance increases. 4.1 Source to Receptor Distance The inverse dependence on source to receptor distance is due to the geometry of the problem. All plumes must impact the receptor cell the source is located in. It must also impact at least one of eight cells immediately surrounding the source, at least one of the 16 grid cells immediately surrounding the eight grid cells etc. In an ideal case where all particle trajectories are straight and remain at the surface, it can be shown from mass conservation that the transit probability is inversely proportional to source to receptor distance. The decrease in transit probability with distance is clearly seen in Figure 2. The transport speed of interests is dependent on the rate mass is transport away from the source to the receptor. Therefore, the transport speed is defined as the source to receptor distance divided by the average particle age at each receptor. The transport speed varies with each source receptor pair. These multiple speeds were reduced to a single characteristic transport speed by averaging together all transport speeds to each receptor weighted by the number of particles at the receptors. The influence of the transport speed on the transit functions is evident by the outer boundary of the two day column transit function in Figure 2. This boundary marks the extent the plume particles travel in two days. If the transport speeds were larger, then the transit pdf would extend beyond this boundary spreading the plume particles over a larger area. This horizontally dilution would reduce the overall transit pdf.