“Baltic Challenges and Chances for
local and regional development
generated by Climate Change”
Climate Data Interpretation
– Lithuania –
November 12, 2009
Author: Lithuanian Institute of Agrarian Economics
Interpretation of the Lithuanian climate data during the period of 1961 – 2100 in the light
of climate change impact on agriculture and forestry
1. Temperature
Average annual temperature is projected to change with around 4˚C towards the end of the
century. The temperature increase is unevenly spread over the seasons, winter temperatures are
projected to change with around 6˚C and summer temperatures with around 4˚C. The increase in
maximum and minimum temperature is rather similar (see Figure 1).
Figure 1: Averaged temperature [˚C]. Anomalies to 1961-1990. Seasonal (winter, spring,
summer, autumn) average.
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* The lines are smoothed to represent a 10 year running mean. Scenarios A2 (green) and B2 (red). The shaded area
marks the span of the year to year variations, also smoothed to a 10 year running mean.
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The increasing average winter temperature will lead to certain threats for forests. Warmer
winters will improve conditions for the spread of tree vermin. Favourable feeding conditions for
cervine game will influence the increase of their population and the damage caused by them.
Absence of upper soil frost will increase the elution of nutrients and dissolution in the soil.
Conditions of forest procurement works will get heavier, therefore it will become relevant to
acquire new machinery for forest procurement works.
Frost waves are typical of Lithuania even at higher average temperatures, subsequently, the
likelihood of winterkill upon frost waves will increase, leading to damage for gardens, orchards and
other crops, and higher risk of income loss for farmers.
The issue of hail will become more and more relevant for Lithuania at rising temperatures.
Such atmospheric phenomena will damage the yield causing losses for farmers.
Higher summer temperatures will deteriorate conditions for the development of livestock
breeding because of the likelihood for originating of new diseases and worse animal keeping
conditions resulting from overheat, the threat of sun and thermal stroke, and worse microclimate in
the stalls. The changing animal keeping conditions may require new animal feeding technologies.
Also threat of unpleasant smell spread at far distances from livestock breeding objects will increase
leading to disapproval by inhabitants to the neighbourhood of such objects.
The increasing average temperature and longer vegetation period will lead to creating new
possibilities and encourage for certain positive changes. Warm winters will facilitate to increase the
resources of the hunting fauna, and to improve conditions for the survival of useful and perspective
tree species, as well as wintering possibilities for helpful insects. Warm winters will have a positive
impact on the forest soil by increasing the mineralization of nutrients in the soil and refreshing
ground waters.
Longer vegetation period will increase the productivity of the most of crops opening
possibilities for growing C4 photosynthesis type plants and alternative species, and introduce very
productive species and breeds from Southern countries in horticulture and gardening. The warming
climate will provide farmers with more options in choosing technologies for crop cultivation.
Many new opportunities will open for the livestock breeding sector. Longer period of animal
keeping outside will facilitate in addressing the issue of accumulating organic fertilizer. It will be
easier to introduce much cheaper animal keeping technologies in Lithuania, such as keeping
animals outside, ‘cold’, semi-open type stalls; use of stockyards, etc. Longer vegetation period will
lead to a longer grazing period, and will allow to prepare more forage by using also a better variety
of cultures. Impact on the structure of animal species raised in Lithuania is also presumable - new
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animal breeds could be bred, and the number of petty animals will increase. Subsequently,
preconditions will be created for introducing new production and additional business opportunities.
Warming climate will facilitate the application of new and more efficient animal waste
management technologies, such as faster manure fermentation processes and the production of
biogas.
2. Precipitation
The average annual precipitation increases with around 20 %. There is a shift in seasonal
precipitation.
Winter time precipitation is projected to increase with up to around 80 %, while summer
precipitation is projected to decrease, although one scenario gives increasing temperature in the last
10 years. Maximum winter time precipitation is projected to increase with 100 – 140 % in the end
of the century and increase in variability. Spring and autumn maximum precipitation is projected to
increase with around 40 % while summer maximum precipitation remains almost unchanged (see
Figure 2).
Figure 2: Averaged precipitation. Anomalies to 1961-1990. Seasonal (winter, spring, summer,
autumn) average.
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Considering changes in the amount of precipitation the biggest threats may arise because of
the anticipated increase of precipitation in winter time and possible droughts in summer.
Heavy rainfalls accompanied by strong winds will cause windfalls, and heavy rainfalls will
increase the threat of abiotic tree lesions, the likelihood of soil erosion, and possible submergence of
certain forest and agricultural land areas.
Droughts during the vegetation period will cause the threat of harvest loss leading to the
increased risk for farmers in organising agricultural activities and the provision with food products.
Drought may also increase problems in water supply for livestock breeding. Dry vegetation period
will have a negative impact on the forestry sector as well. Among the essential threats the increasing
forest fire rate should be considered, including the reduction of forest increase, worse naturalization
of young forests, less yield of supplementary forest products (mushrooms, berries, etc.). The peeled
off tree bark because of drought may facilitate the increase of vermin.
3. Snow cover
Snow cover is projected to decrease in all seasons (except summer when there is no snow) and the
variability between years decreases. From around year 2040 there will be years with no snow during
spring or autumn, and from around year 2080 there will be years with no snow at all (see Figure 3).
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Figure 3: Snow cover. Anomalies to 1961-1990. Seasonal (winter, spring, autumn) average.
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The receding snow coverage will increase the risk of winterkill. It is particularly relevant for
Lithuania, as the structure of crops includes a great part of winter crops. Threat of winterkill may
also increase for gardens and orchards, as the current species shall be covered at low temperatures.
4. Wind
The changes in wind speed are projected to be small, less than 1m/s (see Figure 4).
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Figure 4: Wind. Anomalies to 1961-1990. Seasonal (winter, spring, summer, autumn)
average.
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Though forecasting of changes in the wind speed indicates their insignificance, the warming
climate, however, may cause more extreme atmospheric phenomena – the threat of strong winds
and storms. Such phenomena will cause threats for forests resulting in windfalls and soil erosion.
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