A comparison of August 2012 with July 2012 and June 2012 for different regions and size bands
ONS has created growth rates for stores with a registered annual turnover of:



less than £250,000,
between £250,000 and £500,000
between £500,000 and £1 million
in a variety of GB regions as detailed in the tables below, to determine period-on-period growth
rates following a request from another government department. This data is being published in line
with the ONS policy on ad hoc data and analysis.
Methodology Used
The Retail Sales sample was divided by postcode to ascertain the region in which a business
operated. From here the registered turnover on Inter Departmental Business Register, the sampling
frame for ONS business surveys, was used to group businesses by size. The non-seasonally adjusted
average adjusted weekly data (that is data that are grossed and used in the compilation of the index)
was used to generate results.
Weekly data were chosen over monthly so as to ensure a more valid comparison. If standard trading
period data were used this would have resulted in a comparison of the four weeks of August with
the five weeks of June.
Only those businesses that were selected in the original sample for both periods concerned were
used to create growth rates, that is, a matched pairs approach was used. It was not possible to
create year-on-year comparisons as there were insufficient businesses in both periods.
When using this data:



Care should be taken when comparing monthly non-seasonally adjusted data, as growth
rates will be affected by the seasonal cycle within the data.
Further caution should be taken when making inferences from data that uses a matched
pairs approach as the resulting samples are not truly representative of the region and size
band.
Retail Sales data can be affected by many different economic, social and other factors. For
example, wet weather can cause retail sales to fall whilst warm weather can cause retail
sales to rise; or sales periods or promotions can have a positive effect on retail sales.
Growth Rates
Comparisons between July 2012 and August 2012 and June 2012 and August 2012 have been made
and the following month-on-month growth rates calculated for the size bands and regions
requested.
a)
Less than £250,000
July 2012 to August 2012
Region
London
Birmingham
Scotland
Leeds
Liverpool
Portsmouth
Sheffield
All regions
Growth rate (non-seasonally adjusted)
4.0%
-14.4%
4.3%
-5.2%
-12.3%
4.4%
3.1%
2.6
June 2012 to August 2012
Region
Growth rate (non-seasonally adjusted)
London
Birmingham
Scotland
Leeds
Liverpool
Portsmouth
Sheffield
All regions
b)
-2.5%
-4.8%
5.0%
-12.3%
-2.2%
9.3%
13.3%
2.0%
Between £250,000 and £500,000
July 2012 to August 2012
Region
Growth rate (non-seasonally adjusted)
London
-5.7%
Birmingham
-23.8%
Scotland
1.2%
Leeds
Na
Liverpool
Na
Portsmouth
-8.0%
Sheffield
2.3%
All regions
1.0%
Na denotes insufficient businesses available to make a comparison.
June 2012 to August 2012
Region
Growth rate (non-seasonally
adjusted)
London
Birmingham
Scotland
Leeds
Liverpool
Portsmouth
Sheffield
All regions
Na denotes insufficient businesses available to make a comparison.
c)
-1.0%
-18.2%
6.3%
Na
Na
-6.8%
5.6%
2.6%
Over £500,000
July 2012 to August 2012
Region
London
Birmingham
Scotland
Leeds
Liverpool
Portsmouth
Sheffield
All regions
Growth rate (non-seasonally adjusted)
-23.9%
-12.8%
5.5%
1.2%
-5.7%
4.6%
1.9%
6.7%
June 2012 to August 2012
Region
London
Birmingham
Scotland
Leeds
Liverpool
Portsmouth
Sheffield
All regions
Growth rate (non-seasonally adjusted)
-16.8%
0.6%
9.1%
0.0%
-4.9%
10.1%
1.2%
-2.6%
Summary of published results for the August 2012 Retail Sales Index
In August 2012, the amount bought in the retail sector (sales values), non-seasonally adjusted,
increased by 2.6% compared with August 2011, large stores increased by 2.7 % and small stores
increased by 2.2%. However, on the month, non-seasonally adjusted data shows that the amount
bought in August decreased by 2.4% compared with July 2012. Over the same period large stores fell
by 3.1% and small stores decreased by 0.6 %.
The published results for Retail Sales in August can be found here
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/rsi/retail-sales/august-2012/index.html
Conclusions
It is not possible to make any inferences from these data. There is no definite pattern amongst the
growth rates calculated and further there are other factors that will have impacted on these results.
For example,



the samples used may not be representative of the population in these regions and size
bands,
any seasonality within the data, and
economic factors such as sales or promotional periods during the periods compared could
also have an effect on these growth rates.