Demographic Trends in South Australia
and Their Implications for Community
Demands on Councils and Their
Capacity to Meet Those Demands
Professor Graeme Hugo
Dr Kelly Parker
Dr George Tan
Dr Helen Feist
2013
Australian Population and Migration Research Centre (APMRC)
Incorporating GISCA (The National Centre for Social Applications of GIS)
Geography, Environment and Population
School of Social Sciences
Ground Floor, Napier Building, North Terrace
University of Adelaide, SA 5005
Ph: 61 8 8313 3900
Fax: 61 8 8313 3498
Email: apmrc@adelaide.edu.au
www.adelaide.edu.au/apmrc
Contents
List of Tables ............................................................................................................. 5
List of Figures............................................................................................................ 7
1. Introduction ........................................................................................................... 8
1.1 The Australian and South Australian Context ................................................... 8
2. Changing Patterns of Population Growth and Decline ......................................... 11
2.1 Projected Growth Rates ................................................................................. 11
2.2 Components of Population Change ............................................................... 19
3. Ageing and its Effects .......................................................................................... 30
3.1 The Age Structure of South Australia ............................................................. 30
3.2 LGAs with Highest Growth of Older Populations ............................................ 32
3.3 Internal Mobility by Age.................................................................................. 34
3.4 Different Cohorts of ‘Older’ People................................................................. 35
4. International Migration and its Effects .................................................................. 41
4.1 Overview of South Australia’s Migration Profile .............................................. 41
4.2 Mulitcultural Diversity in South Australia ........................................................ 46
4.3 Mulitcultural Diversity at the LGA Level .......................................................... 48
5. Changing Households and Families .................................................................... 55
5.1 Household Growth ......................................................................................... 55
5.2 Household Types ........................................................................................... 57
6. Changing Patterns of Employment ...................................................................... 64
7. Vulnerable Populations ....................................................................................... 69
7.1 Indigenous Populations.................................................................................. 69
7.2 Age, Disability and Health .............................................................................. 71
7.3 Low Income Populations and Renters............................................................ 73
7.4 International Migrants .................................................................................... 76
8. The Implications for Council and Conclusion ....................................................... 81
8.1 Introduction .................................................................................................... 81
8.2 Population Growth/Decline ............................................................................ 81
2
8.3 Population Composition ................................................................................. 83
8.4 Population Distribution ................................................................................... 85
8.5 Conclusion ..................................................................................................... 87
Appendix One: Projected Pop. and Average Annual Growth Rates, 2011-2021 ...... 88
Appendix Two: Absolute Change of Overseas Born in SA LGAs 2006-2011 ........... 90
Appendix Three: Top 10 countries of birth, new arrivals 2001-2011 Selected LGAs 92
References.............................................................................................................. 96
3
4
List of Tables
Table 1: Contemporary Population Growth Rates (% pa) .......................................... 9
Table 2: Projected Population and Average Annual Growth Rates, 2011-2021, Top
and Bottom 10 South Australian LGAs* ................................................................... 12
Table 3: Average Annual Growth Rate and Net Population Change by Age, 20062011, LGAs with Highest Projected Growth Rate .................................................... 13
Table 4: Age Distribution 2011: LGAs with Highest Projected Growth Rates ........... 15
Table 5: Components of Population Change 2006-2011 - LGAs with Highest
Projected Average Annual Growth Rate .................................................................. 24
Table 6: Components of Population Change 2006-2011 - LGAs with Lowest
Projected Average Annual Growth Rate .................................................................. 25
Table 7: Components of Population Change 2006-2011 - LGAs with Highest Net
Internal Migration 2006-2011................................................................................... 26
Table 8: Components of Population Change 2006-2011 - LGAs with Lowest Net
Internal Migration 2006-2011................................................................................... 26
Table 9: Components of Population Change 2006-2011 - LGAs with Highest Net
International Migration 2006-2011 ........................................................................... 27
Table 10: Components of Population Change 2006-2011 - LGAs with Highest Net
Natural Increase 2006-2011 .................................................................................... 28
Table 11: Components of Population Change 2006-2011 - LGAs with Lowest Net
Natural Increase 2006-2011 .................................................................................... 28
Table 12: LGAs with Highest Net Growth and Average Annual Growth Rate of
Population Aged 65+ in 2006-2011 ......................................................................... 33
Table 13: Net Internal Mobility: Top and Bottom Five Internal Migrant Receiving
LGAs 2006-2011 by Age 15-24 and 60+ ................................................................. 34
Table 14: LGAs with Highest Proportion of the Population Aged 45-64, 65-79 and
80+ years, 2011 ...................................................................................................... 36
Table 15: LGAs with the Highest and Lowest Employment Rates of the Population
Aged 65+, 20111 ..................................................................................................... 37
Table 16: Areas with the Highest Rates of Volunteering for the 65+ Population ...... 39
Table 17: Rates of Providing and Receiving Unpaid Assistance by Age, Greater
Adelaide, Rest of SA, Total SA and Australia, 2011 ................................................ 39
Table 18: South Australia: Net Overseas Migration ................................................ 41
5
Table 19: Number of Immigrants with Visas Granted Under the State Regional
Specific Migration Mechanisms and their Proportion of the Total Immigrant Intake,*
2000 to 2012 ........................................................................................................... 43
Table 20: South Australia: Top 10 Countries of Permanent Additions, 2010-11...... 43
Table 21: Australia and South Australia: Temporary Business (Long Stay) 457 and
Working Holiday Makers, 2005-11........................................................................... 44
Table 22: South Australia: Onshore and Offshore Migration, 2001-11 .................... 46
Table 23: Indicators of Multicultural Diversity, Australia and SA: 2011 Census........ 46
Table 24: South Australia: Birthplace of the Population, 1991-2011 ....................... 47
Table 25: 10 Largest Overseas-Born Groups in South Australia, 1981-2011 ........... 47
Table 26: Change in Overseas born population in SA by regions, 2006-2011 ......... 48
Table 27: Absolute Change of Overseas Born in Top Twenty SA LGAs 2006-2011 49
Table 28: South Australia:
Top 10 LGAs for Metropolitan/Non-Metropolitan for
Selected Groups, 2011............................................................................................ 51
Table 29: South Australia Top 10 Countries of Birth for New Arrivals 2006-2011 .... 52
Table 30: Growth Rates of Top 10 Fastest Growing South Australian LGAs; Change
in Total Households, 2001-2011 .............................................................................. 56
Table 31: Growth rates of household types in South Australia 1991-2011 ............... 57
Table 32: LGAs with the Largest Net Increase and Decrease in Employed Persons
from 2006-2011 and Average Annual Growth of Employed Population ................... 67
Table 33: LGAs with the Largest Net Increase Not in Labour Force Persons from
2006-2011 and Average Annual Growth of Not in Labour Force Population ............ 68
Table 34: South Australia: Indigenous and Total South Australia Population Selected
Characteristics, 2011............................................................................................... 70
Table 35: LGAs with the Largest Total Number Indigenous Population, 2011 ......... 70
Table 36: Top 10 LGAs, Greatest No. of People Who Require Assistance, 2011 .... 72
Table 37: Income by Age, South Australia 2011* .................................................... 73
Table 38: LGAs with the High Proportion of People Earning a Low Income*, 2011 . 74
Table 39: LGAs with the Highest Proportion ‘Rent’ Tenure Type, 2011 ................... 75
Table 40: Renters, and Low-Income Renters, by Age 2011..................................... 76
Table 41: LGAs with Highest Proportion of Renters on a Low Income*, 2011 ......... 76
Table 42: Top 10 Countries of Recent Arrivals: Proportion with a Low Income ........ 77
Table 43: Country of Birth Highest Proportion with a Low Income*, SA 2011 .......... 78
Table 44: Country of Birth of Migrants with Highest Proportion Unemployed* (looking
for work), South Australia 2011 ............................................................................... 79
6
List of Figures
Figure 1: Australia and SA: Rate of Population Growth per Annum, 1947-2011 ........ 9
Figure 2: Proportion of the Population by Age (Projected), Australia and South
Australia, 2011, 2021, 2050..................................................................................... 15
Figure 3: South Australia: Projected Percent Change 2011 - 2021 by Age (%) –
Greater Adelaide Capital City Area and Rest of State ............................................. 17
Figure 4: Projected Population Change 2011, 2021 and 2050 by Age – Greater
Adelaide Capital City Area and Rest of State .......................................................... 18
Figure 5: South Australia: Components of Population Change 2006-2011 – Greater
Adelaide Capital City Area, Rest of State and South Australia Total Population ...... 19
Figure 6: Natural Increase 2006 – 2011, South Australian LGAs ............................. 20
Figure 7: Net Internal Migration 2006-2011, South Australian LGAs........................ 21
Figure 8: Net International Migration 2006-2011, South Australian LGAs ................ 22
Figure 9: South Australia: Age-Sex Distribution, 1981 and 2011 ............................. 30
Figure 10: Average Annual Growth Rates by Age <65 and 65+, 2001-2006 and 20062011 Greater Adelaide, Rest of State and South Australia Total ............................. 32
Figure 11: Volunteering Rates by Age, Greater Adelaide, Rest of SA and South
Australia, 2011 ........................................................................................................ 38
Figure 12: South Australia: Permanent Migrant Additions by Category, 2001-02 to
2010-11 ................................................................................................................... 42
Figure 13: Household Types by Age in South Australia 2011 .................................. 58
Figure 14: Proportion of Household Type in Top 10 Fastest Growing South Australian
LGAs 2006-2011 ..................................................................................................... 60
Figure 15: Percentage Change of Tenure Type for Household Types in Top 10
Fastest Growing South Australian LGAs 2001-2011................................................ 62
Figure 16: Comparison of Increases between Median Income with Rent and
Mortgage Payments 2001-2011 .............................................................................. 62
Figure 17: Percent Employed by Age and Area, 2011 ............................................. 64
Figure 18: Distribution of Occupations, Employed Persons by Area Adelaide SD,
Outside of Adelaide, South Australia, Australia, 2011.............................................. 65
Figure 19: Average Annual Growth Rate of Occupations by Area, 2006-2011......... 66
7
1. Introduction
Patterns in population change over time have a number of structural implications
which need to be anticipated and for which governments and business need to plan;
such as changing impacts on provision of housing, transport, local planning and
infrastructure, health care and other community services. More broadly, population
change affects family structures and patterns of support, intergenerational relations,
employment, business, the types of services that are required, and where they are
required.
After two decades of relative stability, South Australia’s population has experienced
significant change over the last five years. Moreover, there is likely to be even more
substantial changes over the next two decades. Issues such as the large scale
retirement of baby boomers from the workforce (currently 43 percent of the South
Australian workforce), the influx of permanent and temporary immigrants; the impact
of the mining boom; structural change in the economy; climate and other
environmental changes, as well as wider national and international economic and
social changes will ensure that the State’s population will change. This will
incorporate changes not only in size and growth but also in composition.
Understanding the extent and nature of change in the size, composition and
distribution of the South Australian population is an important fundamental basic
need for the formulation of appropriate and effective policies for the development of
the State and also for the delivery of services to South Australians.
1.1 The Australian and South Australian Context
Australia is not only one of the fastest growing OECD countries at present but also
has one of the fastest growing populations in the Asia-Pacific region. Table 1 shows
that the Australian population is growing at around 1.6 percent per annum – more
than 50 percent higher than the rate for the world’s total population; while South
Australian population growth is on par with world growth and slightly above that of the
Asia-Pacific region at 1.0 percent. Australia’s population growth rate has typically
fluctuated over the post-war period, in part due to shifts in the economy and
government policy on immigration.
8
Table 1: Contemporary Population Growth Rates (% pa)
Country/Region
Year
World
2011-12
Rate Per
Annum
1.0
Population 2012
(millions)
7058
Europe and the New Independent States
2011-12
0.0
740
LDCs* (excl. China)
2011-12
1.5
4464
MDCs**
North America
2011-12
2011-12
0.1
0.9
1243
349
ESCAP Region***
2011-12
0.9
4260
Indonesia
2011-12
1.0
Australia
2011-12
1.6
245
23.7
Australia
2008-09
1.8
South Australia
2011-12
1.0
1.65
South Australia
2008-09
1.1
*LDC: Lesser Developed Countries
** MDC: More Developed Countries
*** ESCAP: Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific
Source: ESCAP, 2012; Population Reference Bureau, 2011 and 2012; ABS, 2012
Figure 1 compares South Australia’s average population growth with that of Australia
as a whole from 1947 to 2011. This highlights the high growth in South Australia in
the post-war period, associated with both the higher birth rates during the baby boom
period (1946 to 1964) and also high immigration rates to support SA’s expanding
industry presence at that time. However, Figure 1 also shows that this exaggerated
population boom was followed by an exaggerated ‘bust’ with much lower growth
rates for South Australia since the mid-1970’s.
Figure 1: Australia and South Australia: Rate of Population Growth per Annum,
1947-2011
4.0
3.5
South Australia
3.0
Australia
Percent
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
Year
Source: ABS 1986 and Australian Demographic Statistics, various issues
9
2011
2007
2003
1999
1995
1991
1987
1983
1979
1975
1971
1967
1963
1959
1955
1951
1947
0.0
When considering the changing population of South Australia, however, it is not only
growth (population numbers) that is of interest. Changing composition, in terms of
age structure, household and workforce composition and ethnic diversity are of the
utmost importance and have significant implications for local councils.
Demographic change tends to occur incrementally rather than suddenly but
population is constantly changing, therefore it is important to monitor the shifts in
composition which are occurring. The release of the 2011 Australian Census of
Population and Housing in late 2012 affords an excellent opportunity to take stock of
recent developments in the demographic composition of the South Australian
population. This report seeks to provide a snapshot of the contemporary demography
of South Australia at the LGA level and explore some of the implications of
population change for local government.
Several themes are explored in this report: ageing, international migration, changing
households and families, employment patterns and vulnerable populations. The
composition or changes to areas across these themes will help to explain the overall
projected growth figures and help to inform the implications for council areas. Trends
for LGAs will be benchmarked against South Australia, Greater Adelaide Capital City
Area and Rest of State averages as well as the whole of Australia figures when
applicable.
10
2. Changing Patterns of Population Growth and
Decline
It is important to understand why and where population growth or decline is
expected to happen, and which components of the population will be most
impacted from a council perspective, in terms of planning for and providing
adequate services.
2.1 Projected Growth Rates
The projected population and average annual growth rates of all South
Australian LGAs for the periods 2006-2011 and 2011-20211 are shown in Table
1. The projected growth rate for the whole of South Australia, Greater Adelaide
Area and Rest of State are shown at the bottom of the Table2. Overall growth is
expected to slow over the next ten years, compared to the overall 2006-2011
annual rate, and the growth rate is expected to be higher in the Greater
Adelaide Area compared to non-metropolitan areas outside of Adelaide. South
Australia is expected to experience lower growth than the Australian average;
following the trend since the early 1970’s (see Figure 1).
This includes looking at growth rates across different areas and different
population sub-groups. When examining the absolute change in the number of
people projected to be living in each of South Australia’s LGAs over the next 10
years it appears there are several LGAs in regional areas of South Australia;
including the Far North, Whyalla and Eyre Peninsula, Murraylands and
Riverland, and Yorke and Mid-North regions, that can expect to see population
decline in the coming years. The LGAs projected to see the biggest increase in
terms of net growth by 2021 are Playford, Onkaparinga, Port Adelaide Enfield
and Charles Sturt, LGAs that are all located within Adelaide metropolitan area.
The largest overall growth is expected in Playford LGA, which is projected to
grow by nearly 50 percent; or 40,000 people, in this period. LGAs located within
the Adelaide metropolitan region and peri-urban (or urban fringe) regions, such
as the Adelaide Hills and Fluerieu, and Barossa regions are expected to see the
highest rates of growth over the next ten years. Roxby Downs LGA in the Far
1
Projected data and growth rates are based on SA Planning medium projections series, derived
from ABS 2006 Estimated Resident Population for areas (Government of South Australia 2011).
2 A list of LGAs included in the Greater Adelaide Capital City Area is available in Appendix 1.
LGAs not included in the Greater Adelaide Capital City list comprise the Rest of State area.
Unincorporated areas of South Australia are not included.
11
North has the highest projected growth rate in 2006-11 and well above average
expected growth in 2011-2021; but this is dependent largely on mining activities
in the area; while all other LGAs in the Far North are expected to see below
average growth or decline. Population growth in South Australia over the past
ten years has been confined to coastal communities, areas close to Adelaide
and mining communities, whereas the wheat-sheep belt and Riverland areas
have experienced slowed growth or decline.
Table 2: Projected Population and Average Annual Growth Rates, 20112021, Top and Bottom 10 South Australian LGAs*
Projected Total Population
LGA name
Projected Average
Annual Growth Rates
2011
2021
Change
2011-2021
Playford
82,027
121,777
39,750
2.8
4.8
Light
14,408
20,456
6,048
2.5
4.2
5,345
7,525
2,180
5.2
4.1
Adelaide
20,720
27,997
7,278
3.5
3.5
Gawler
21,828
29,188
7,360
2.5
3.4
Mount Barker
31,082
39,642
8,560
2.5
2.8
4,776
6,033
1,257
2.2
2.6
Victor Harbor
14,298
17,673
3,375
2.9
2.4
Alexandrina
24,567
29,412
4,845
2.9
2.0
Barossa
23,318
26,955
3,637
1.8
1.6
The Coorong
5,890
5,813
-77
-0.1
-0.1
Kimba
1,162
1,141
-21
0.0
-0.2
11,957
11,699
-258
-0.2
-0.2
Tatiara
7,101
6,920
-181
-0.1
-0.3
Coober Pedy
1,999
1,939
-60
-0.1
-0.3
Roxby Downs
Yankalilla
Loxton Waikerie
12
2006-2011
2011-2021
Mount Remarkable
2,925
2,836
-89
-0.1
-0.3
Flinders Ranges
1,760
1,677
-83
-0.3
-0.5
Southern Mallee
2,166
2,048
-118
-0.5
-0.5
Northern Areas
4,722
4,451
-271
-0.4
-0.6
948
888
-60
-0.5
-0.6
SOUTH AUSTRALIA
1663477
1852372
188895
1.3
1.1
Greater Adelaide
1284354
1443779
159425
1.4
1.2
379123
408593
29470
1.0
0.8
Orroroo/Carrieton
Rest of State
* For a list of all SA LGAs please see Appendix One
Source: 1Planning SA projections data (derived from ABS 2006 Estimated Resident Population)
It is also important to disaggregate growth rates of areas to different age groups
because different age groups grow and decline at different rates to the total
population. This is of fundamental importance since demand for most goods and
services vary considerably between different age groups. Hence in anticipating
future demand for schools, health services, housing etc. it is crucial not only to
look at overall growth of the population but at different age groups within the
population.
Accordingly, the growth rates by age cohort for the top ten projected growth
LGAs (from Table 2) in the 2006-2011 period are shown in Table 3. Many of the
high growth LGAs: Light, Adelaide, Mount Barker, Victor Harbor, Alexandrina
and Barossa, saw above average growth across all age groups. Playford LGA
had above average growth of the population aged less than 65 years and below
average growth of the population aged 65+ years however this area still saw an
increase of 785 people aged 65+ years in the 2006-2011 time period.
Table 3: Average Annual Growth Rate and Net Population Change by Age,
2006-2011, LGAs with Highest Projected Growth Rate
Average Ann. Growth Rate
Net Change
0-14
15-64
65+
0-14
15-64
65+
Playford
2.1
3.0
1.9
1742
6644
785
Light
1.6
2.4
4.2
228
985
263
13
Roxby Downs
-1.1
6.0
5.8
-58
1082
14
Adelaide
2.6
3.5
4.9
157
3028
607
Gawler
0.2
1.7
3.4
33
987
538
Mount Barker
1.8
2.2
6.1
535
1910
821
Yankalilla
0.0
1.2
6.1
1
144
249
Victor Harbor
2.1
2.3
4.6
174
718
836
Alexandrina
1.5
2.4
6.1
277
1480
1241
Barossa
1.4
1.3
3.9
282
870
591
South Australia
0.5
1.0
2.1
6300
51435
24429
Source: ABS Census data 2006, 2011
Roxby Downs saw a decline in the population aged 0-14 years but high growth
rates in the 15 years and over population; this example points to the importance
of looking at net numbers in addition to growth rates; although the growth rate of
the 15-64 years and 65+ years populations in Roxby Downs were about the
same in the 2006-2011 period, the net change was drastically different for each
age group, with an increase of 1,082 people in the 15-64 years age group and
just 14 people in the 65+ years age group, which attests to the younger
distribution of the population in this area associated with employment in the
mining industry. Gawler and Yankalilla LGAs both had above average annual
growth of the 15-64 years and 65+ years population from 2006-2011 but below
average growth of the young 0-14 years aged population with a net increase of
only 33 and 1 person, respectively, in this age group, highlighting the older age
structure of these areas.
The age structure of different areas gives some insights into what population
distributions look like and thereby potential future service needs. Table 4 shows
that half of the LGAs expected to see the highest growth rates of the overall
population in the coming years (from Table 2) are LGAs with a higher than
average proportion of the population aged 65 years or older; Victor Harbour,
Yankalilla, Alexandrina, Gawler and Barossa. This is an indicator of the
population flows associated with retirement transitions within the baby boomer
cohort to high amenity tree change and sea change locations. The other half of
the high growth LGAs have populations that are younger than the state average;
Mount Barker, Playford, Light, Adelaide and Roxby Downs. Roxby Downs again
14
appears as an outlier with less than one percent of the population aged 65+
years.
This is in contrast to the age distribution in areas with the lowest projected
growth rates in the future (from Table 2). All of these LGAs, with the exception of
Tatiara, have above average proportions of the population aged 65 or older in
2011, an indicator of the impact of the baby boomer cohort moving into older
age. This population shift towards an older age profile has significant
implications for the future workforce on the one hand and for service demands
around health, transport and age specific services on the other for these areas.
Table 4: Age Distribution 2011: LGAs with Highest Projected Growth Rates
Total Pop aged
65+
Total pop aged
<65
Playford
9296
69822
11.7
88.3
Light
1550
12233
11.2
88.8
20
4682
0.4
99.6
Adelaide
2196
17442
11.2
88.8
Gawler
3710
16827
18.1
81.9
Mount Barker
3620
26146
12.2
87.8
Yankalilla
1092
3304
24.8
75.2
Victor Harbor
4805
9036
34.7
65.3
Alexandrina
5597
18102
23.6
76.4
Barossa
3697
18469
16.7
83.3
257545
1339024
16.1
83.9
Roxby Downs
South Australia
% Aged
65+
% Aged
<65
Source: ABS Census data 2011, place of usual residence
Figure 2 shows a comparison of population growth for South Australia and
Australia by age for 2011, 2021 and 2050. It is apparent that while South
Australia will follow the same trend in population change as Australia as a whole
it will consistently have a slightly older population than Australia over time.
Figure 2: Proportion of the Population by Age (Projected), Australia and
South Australia, 2011, 2021, 2050
15
Source: ABS 2008 Series B Population Projections Cat No. 3222.0
The following figures provide an overview of projected growth in the population
by age in both metropolitan and non-metropolitan areas. The projected growth
or decline by age for the population living in the Greater Adelaide Area and Rest
of State for the 10 year period 2011-2021 is shown in Figure 3. Focusing on the
65+ years population, growth of the younger old population (65-74 years) is
expected to happen at a faster rate in the Greater Adelaide Area compared to
other regions of SA, and growth of the oldest populations (80+ years) is
expected to be more rapid outside of the Adelaide capital city area. This has
implications for some rural areas with limited or dispersed services; particularly
as people aged over 80 are more likely to cease driving, live alone and have
increasing levels of disability and need for care.
All areas are expected to see a decline in the young working age (15-24 years)
population in the next 10 years but this decline will be more pronounced outside
of the Greater Adelaide Area. This age group is highly mobile and losses from
the Greater Adelaide Area likely reflect high rates of interstate and overseas out
migration, while losses in non-metropolitan areas reflects both movement into
metro areas of South Australia for work or study and moves interstate or
overseas. There is a projected trend of low growth in dependent child and
workforce age groups and high growth in the 65+ years age group across South
16
Australia, indicative of the consistent low birth rates in Australia and the
movement of the baby boomers into older age.
Figure 3: South Australia: Projected Percent Change 2011 - 2021 by Age
(%) – Greater Adelaide Capital City Area and Rest of State
Source: Government of South Australia 2011 (derived from ABS 2006 Estimated Resident
Population)
For some of the older age groups the percentage population increase is
expected to be substantial, for example a 40 percent overall increase is
projected for the 65-79 aged population across the state and a 21 percent
increase for the 80+ population. In numerical terms this equates to an increase
of nearly 80,000 people aged 65-79 and 17,600 people aged 80+ across the
state in the next 10 years, see Figure 4. Net growth in the working age
population (15-64) in the period is projected to be around 64,000 people, thus
based on these projections net growth in the working age population is expected
to be about half the net growth expected in the older (65+) and younger (less
than 15 years of age) populations combined (net growth is expected to be
around 125,000 people in these age groups).
Of particular interest is the projected change in the older population until 2050,
see Figure 4. The number of young old (60 to 79 years) will continue to
increase, however growth will slow slightly after 2021; with an expected
population aged 60 to 79 years in SA of 321,750, an increase of just over
62,000 compared to 80,000 in the next 10 years. However of greater interest in
terms of demand on services, need for transport provision and aged specific
17
health care and housing, is the rapid increases in the number of people aged
80+ years as the first baby boomers move in very old age in 2050. In the
Greater Adelaide Area the numbers of people aged 80+ years will more than
double from 69,000 in 2021 to 144,590 in 2050; while for the Rest of State the
percentage increase is even greater moving from 26,100 to 58,500 people, an
increase of more than 123 percent. While the actual population numbers are
smaller for the Rest of State region the issue will be even more significant in
terms of a more dispersed population with fewer community resources to
support them.
Figure 4: Projected Population Change 2011, 2021 and 2050 by Age –
Greater Adelaide Capital City Area and Rest of State
Source: Planning SA projections data 2011 (derived from ABS 2006 Estimated Resident
Population)
Amid the major focus on population ageing as a demographic issue in Australia,
the fertility rate has actually increased over the past four years and will continue
as a result of an ‘echo’ of the baby boom, whose children are now having
children. However due to South Australia’s older age structure and slightly lower
fertility rate compared the national average, the increase in births due to this
baby boom ‘echo’ are less profound in South Australia compared to the rest of
the nation.
18
2.2 Components of Population Change
There are two components that contribute to population change: natural
increase (number of births minus deaths) and net migration (in-migration (both
overseas and internal) minus out migration). The net figures for these
components of population change; natural increase, internal and international
migration3 from 2006-2011 for all of South Australia, the Greater Adelaide Area
and Rest of State are shown in Figure 5.
Net gains in population due to net international migration and natural increase
are the reason South Australia has experienced growth over the past five years;
these components offset a net loss of population due to internal (within
Australia) migration out of the State. Comparing the components of population
change in the Greater Adelaide Area and Rest of State, it is apparent
international migration plays a bigger role in population growth in the Adelaide
area than natural increase; while outside of the Greater Adelaide Area natural
increase plays a bigger role than international migration. However, it is notable
that areas outside of the Greater Adelaide Area (non-metropolitan areas)
experienced a small positive net internal migration from 2006-2011, while the
Greater Adelaide Area experienced a loss.
Figure 5: South Australia: Components of Population Change 2006-2011 –
Greater Adelaide Capital City Area, Rest of State and South Australia Total
Population
3
Net international migration figures based on the difference between the numbers of
overseas born in successive censuses.
19
Note: Net international migration represents the total number of overseas born moving into the
area from 2006-2011 including internal mobility of the overseas born
Source: ABS Census data 2006, 2011
The net figures for selected components of population change (natural increase,
internal and international migration) for all South Australian the LGAs are shown
in Figure 6,Figure 7 and Figure 8. In order to examine the net figures for
selected components of population change (natural increase, internal and
international migration) more closely Table 5 and Table 6 highlight LGAs with
the highest and lowest projected average annual growth rates in the next 10
years (from Table 2). This gives some insight into what is causing growth or
decline in these areas. Many of the high growth areas experienced net gains of
the population over the past five years as a result of net gains across all of the
components of population growth, however depending on the area certain
components of population change play more of a role than others.
Figure 6: Natural Increase 2006 – 2011, South Australian LGAs
20
Source: APMRC and ABS Census 2011
Figure 7: Net Internal Migration 2006-2011, South Australian LGAs
21
Source: APMRC and ABS Census 2011
Figure 8: Net International Migration 2006-2011, South Australian LGAs
22
Source: APMRC and ABS Census 2011
23
Table 5 shows that for some of the coastal South Australian LGAs, such as
Victor Harbour and Alexandrina, growth is due in large part to internal migration
of older Australians to these areas in retirement; while growth in Playford and
Mount Barker LGAs is partly due to new housing developments. As families and
younger couples take up housing in these new developments, net population
gains can be attributed to both internal mobility, couples and families moving
into new housing, and natural increase, as home owners in these cohorts are
likely to be in the family formation age groups. Yankalilla and Victor Harbour
LGAs had a net loss in population from 2006-2011 due to natural decrease
(more deaths than births associated with their ageing populations); however
these areas still experienced high growth due to internal migration and a net
gain in the overseas born population. Growth in the Adelaide City LGA is due
largely to in-migration of international migrants, students and the working age
population, following a clear global trend of international migrants settling in
larger cities. It is clear population growth has different implications for councils
associated with services and policy in all of these areas because of the different
reasons for growth.
Table 5: Components of Population Change 2006-2011 - LGAs with Highest
Projected Average Annual Growth Rate
LGA Name
Playford
Net natural
Increase
Net internal
migration
Net international
migration1
2006-2011
2006-2011
2006-2011
3887
2629
1656
Light
479
784
126
Roxby Downs
404
-234
238
88
-60
2563
389
738
300
1145
1582
664
-25
264
114
-375
1545
391
Alexandrina
244
2445
759
Barossa
492
924
287
Adelaide
Gawler
Mount Barker
Yankalilla
Victor Harbor
1
Represent total overseas born moving into the area from 2006-2011 including internal mobility of
the overseas born
Source: ABS Census data 2006, 2011
24
All LGAs that are expected to experience population decline in the next 10 years
(from Table 2) are located in regional or remote areas and most have relatively
small populations. Loxton-Waikerie, the Coorong and Tatiara are the only LGAs
on this list that had an overall population of 5,000 people or more in 2011. All of
the projected decline areas shown in Table 6, with the exception of Mount
Remarkable, had negative net internal migration from 2006-2011, and although
most LGAs (except Coober Pedy and Kimba) had a positive net number of
international migrants in the same period, it was not enough to offset the
population loss due to out-migration. Orroroo/Carrieton, Northern Areas and
Flinders Ranges also experienced overall population loss due to natural
decrease.
Table 6: Components of Population Change 2006-2011 - LGAs with Lowest
Projected Average Annual Growth Rate
LGA Name
Net natural
Increase
Net internal
migration
Net international
migration1
2006-2011
2006-2011
2006-2011
Orroroo/Carrieton
-19
-40
26
Northern Areas
-22
-147
18
Southern Mallee
32
-123
53
Flinders Ranges
-6
-45
23
Mount Remarkable
17
28
40
Coober Pedy
45
-159
-69
Tatiara
227
-532
241
Loxton Waikerie
163
-387
52
21
-59
-1
117
-280
16
Kimba
The Coorong
Source: ABS Census data 2006, 2011
Table 7 and Table 8 show the LGAs that experienced the largest net increase
and largest net decrease in population due to interstate and intrastate (within
South Australia) mobility from 2006-2011. Many of the LGAs receiving the
largest number of internal migrants from 2006-2011 were outside of the Greater
Adelaide Area. Playford, Mount Barker, Light and Gawler are all peri-urban
areas on the fringes of the Adelaide metropolitan area. These areas have
experienced growth in new housing developments and increased land sales
25
associated with ‘urban sprawl’ away from the capital city; strengthened by the
fact that the areas with the greatest net decrease in population due to internal
migration were all established LGAs within the Greater Adelaide Area (Table 8),
suggesting movement of younger families and couples to new housing areas on
the fringes of the urban region. However, in all of the LGAs in Table 8, except
Tea Tree Gully and Mitcham, the loss due to internal migration was offset by net
gains to the area from international migration.
Table 7: Components of Population Change 2006-2011 - LGAs with Highest
Net Internal Migration 2006-2011
LGA Name
Net internal
migration, 20062011
Net international
migration, 20062011
Natural increase,
2006-2011
Playford
2629
1,656
3,887
Alexandrina
2445
759
244
Mount Barker
1582
664
1,145
Victor Harbor
1545
391
-375
Copper Coast
1162
134
-72
Barossa
924
287
492
Light
784
126
479
Gawler
738
300
389
Murray Bridge
483
586
475
Lower Eyre Peninsula
363
60
107
Source: ABS Census data 2006, 2011
Table 8: Components of Population Change 2006-2011 - LGAs with Lowest
Net Internal Migration 2006-2011
LGA Name
Net internal
migration, 20062011
Net international
migration, 20062011
Natural increase,
2006-2011
Tea Tree Gully
-4345
936
2,893
Salisbury
-1518
5,583
5,756
Mitcham
-1275
1,063
994
Port Adelaide Enfield
-1224
7,479
2,642
Campbelltown
-1193
2,176
787
26
West Torrens
-1090
2,697
818
Marion
-1087
3,260
1,526
Unley
-949
1,017
-98
Prospect
-889
959
625
Burnside
-886
1,247
-174
Source: ABS Census data 2006, 2011
The areas with the highest net gain of international migrants (overseas born
moving into the area) from 2006-2011 are shown in Table 9. All LGAs with the
largest net gain of international migrants are in Adelaide metropolitan areas. All
of these areas, with the exception of Playford, had a net loss of internal migrants
in the same period.
Table 9: Components of Population Change 2006-2011 - LGAs with Highest
Net International Migration 2006-2011
LGA Name
Net
international
migration,
2006-2011
Net internal
migration,
2006-2011
Natural
increase, 20062011
Port Adelaide Enfield
7,479
-1224
2,642
Salisbury
5,583
-1518
5,756
Onkaparinga
3,558
-537
5,324
Marion
3,260
-1087
1,526
Charles Sturt
3,088
-616
1,454
West Torrens
2,697
-1090
818
Adelaide
2,563
-60
88
Campbelltown
2,176
-1193
787
Playford
1,656
2629
3,887
Norwood/Payneham/St Peters
1,425
-728
59
Source: ABS Census data 2006, 2011
LGAs with the highest and lowest net increase in population due to natural
increase are shown in Tables 10 and 11. All of the areas experiencing the
27
greatest net gain from 2006-2011 due to natural increase are located in the
Adelaide metropolitan region (a reflection of larger population size in these
areas). In fact all LGAs with high net natural increase, except Mount Barker, also
had net losses due to internal migration, and all had positive net international
migration.
Table 10: Components of Population Change 2006-2011 - LGAs with
Highest Net Natural Increase 2006-2011
LGA Name
Natural increase
2006-2011
Net internal
migration, 20062011
Net international
migration, 20062011
Salisbury
5,756
-1518
5,583
Onkaparinga
5,324
-537
3,558
Playford
3,887
2629
1,656
Tea Tree Gully
2,893
-4345
936
Port Adelaide Enfield
2,642
-1224
7,479
Marion
1,526
-1087
3,260
Charles Sturt
1,454
-616
3,088
Mount Barker
1,145
1582
664
Adelaide Hills
1,122
-763
480
994
-1275
1,063
Mitcham
Source: ABS Census data 2006, 2011
LGAs with net natural decrease (more deaths than births) shown in Table 11 are
all ‘older LGAs’, that is they had above average proportions of the population
aged 65+ in 2011. There is a mix of locations represented in the list; some LGAs
fall within the Greater Adelaide area and some are located in more rural areas of
South Australia. Net internal and international migration offsets the loss due to
natural increase in all LGAs shown except Unley, Barunga West and Northern
Areas.
Table 11: Components of Population Change 2006-2011 - LGAs with
Lowest Net Natural Increase 2006-2011
LGA Name
Natural increase
2006-2011
Net internal
migration, 20062011
Holdfast Bay
-390
252
28
Net international
migration, 20062011
1,102
Victor Harbor
-375
1545
391
Yorke Peninsula
-200
40
-40
Walkerville
-177
-6
289
Burnside
-174
-886
1,247
Unley
-98
-949
1,017
Barunga West
-86
21
23
Copper Coast
-72
1162
134
Yankalilla
-25
264
114
Northern Areas
-22
-147
18
Source: ABS Census data 2006, 2011
This overview of population change at the LGA level, through both natural
increase and migration sets the scene for a more detailed examination of
different population cohorts with South Australian LGAs.
29
3. Ageing and its Effects
Over the next quarter century the number of South Australians aged 65 years and
over will double, as will their ratio to the working age population. This is both a
challenge and an opportunity for local communities. A challenge because the greatly
increased numbers of older South Australians will place pressure on a range of
services at a time when the growth of the workforce will be slowing. However, it is
also an opportunity to harness the talents, skills and energy of older South
Australians to contribute to the State’s sustainability, social capital, prosperity and
equity goals.
3.1 The Age Structure of South Australia
Profound changes which have occurred in South Australia’s age-sex structure in the
last thirty years are reflected in Figure 9. The upper diagram shows that numerically
the number of South Australians aged 0-34 has changed little over the last three
decades while virtually the entire increase in the State’s population has been in the
35+ age groups as a result of the passage of the baby boomer generation over time.
The lower diagram in Figure 9 shows the change in the relative distribution with the
proportion aged less than 35 years being drastically reduced.
Figure 9: South Australia: Age-Sex Distribution, 1981 and 2011
1981 (shaded) and 2011
85+
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
Age 45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
80000
Males
60000
Females
40000
20000
0
Number
30
20000
40000
60000
80000
1981 (shaded) and 2011
Males
85+
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
Age 45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
5
4
Females
3
2
1
0
1
2
3
4
5
Percent
Source: ABS, 2011 and 1981 Census
Over the past ten years, the growth rates of the older population aged 65+ years for
all areas in South Australia have been much higher than growth of the population
aged younger than 65 years (see Figure 10). It is apparent that non-metropolitan
areas of South Australia have been ageing more rapidly; a result of both ageing-inplace within the older cohorts and the out-migration of the younger generations to
metropolitan regions for work and education. The growth rate of the older population
living in LGAs outside of the Greater Adelaide Area has been at double that of the
older population living within the Greater Adelaide Area. Conversely, the growth rate
of South Australia’s younger population living in metropolitan areas was about the
same for both metro and non-metro Adelaide from 2001-2006, but in the 2006-2011
time period the growth rate of the population aged less than 65 years was much
higher in LGAs within the Greater Adelaide area.
The difference in the growth rate of the population aged less than 65 years and 65
years and older is expected to become even more disparate over time. The growth
rate of South Australia’s population aged less than 65 years was 0.9 percent from
2006-2011 and is projected to drop to 0.7 percent for the 2011-2021 period, while the
average annual growth rate of the population aged 65+ years was 2.1 percent from
2006-2011 and is projected to be 3.4 percent from 2011-2021 (ABS 2006, 2011;
Government of South Australia 2011).
31
Figure 10: Average Annual Growth Rates by Age <65 and 65+, 2001-2006 and
2006-2011 Greater Adelaide, Rest of State and South Australia Total
Source: ABS Census Data 2001, 2006, 2011
3.2 LGAs with Highest Growth of Older Populations
There are different needs for older and younger populations and service planning
and provision are usually determined by the actual number of people requiring a
service. Hence, it is important for councils to understand which population groups are
growing at different rates, and growth of different population sub-groups in terms of
actual numbers. The LGAs with the greatest overall increase in population aged 65+
from 2006-2011 are shown at the top of Table 12. The large numerical growth in the
65+ age population in some of these areas reflects total population size; however it is
important to acknowledge that all LGAs except Campbelltown, Playford and Burnside
experienced growth rates of the 65+ population in the past five years that was above
the state average. The substantial net increase in the older population in these LGAs
has implications for demands on health services, transport routes, socialisation
opportunities and service delivery as well as potentially impacting on council
revenues.
The LGAs with the highest average annual growth of the older population (65+ years)
from 2006-2011 are shown in the bottom half of Table 12. All of these areas, except
Streaky Bay, Adelaide and Ceduna had below average rates of growth of the 65+
population in the previous five year period, 2001-2006, an indication of the shift of the
baby boomers in to the older population cohort in more recent years. It is also
important to consider the actual growth or decline in the number of people in different
age groups in areas. For example in the LGA areas of Roxby Downs, Streaky Bay
and Coober Pedy although the growth rate of the older population over the past five
32
years was high, the net increase in population for this 65+ age group was less than
100 people in each of these areas. This is because of younger age structure and/or
small total population size of these LGAs.
Adelaide, Roxby Downs, Alexandrina and Mount Barker were in the top ten lists for
highest rates of growth for the population aged less than 65 years and the population
aged 65+ years, identifying these areas as high growth areas overall.
Table 12: LGAs with Highest Net Growth and Average Annual Growth Rate of
Population Aged 65+ in 2006-2011
Net Change 2006-2011
Average Annual Growth
Rate 2006-2011
LGAs with Highest Net Growth 65+ Pop
Onkaparinga
3900
4.5
Salisbury
2629
4.1
Tea Tree Gully
2567
4.6
Alexandrina
1241
6.1
Campbelltown
879
2.1
Adelaide Hills
868
4.3
Victor Harbor
836
4.6
Mount Barker
821
6.1
Playford
785
1.9
Burnside
663
1.7
LGAs with Highest Avg. Ann. Growth 65+ Pop
Yankalilla
249
6.1
1241
6.1
Mount Barker
821
6.1
Roxby Downs
14
5.8
Streaky Bay
74
5.3
Adelaide
607
4.9
Ceduna
99
4.8
175
4.7
84
4.7
Alexandrina
Grant
Coober Pedy
33
Mallala
South Australia
164
4.7
24,429
2.1
Source: ABS Census Data 2006, 2011
3.3 Internal Mobility by Age
Table 13 shows the LGAs that received the greatest and least net number of internal
migrants (Australia-born population moving within Australia) from the 2006-2011
period for different ends of the age spectrum; young people aged 15-24 years and
the 60+ years population. Young people have a propensity to move for education,
training or to become engaged in the workforce where there are more job
opportunities. The reasons for mobility within the 60+ years population are much
different; this is often initially a move after retirement to high amenity and coastal
locations, and when much older into regional towns or metro areas to be closer to
services and/or family members able to provide informal support. These different
drivers of movement for different age groups are apparent in the locations that
received and lost the greatest number of net internal migrants in each age group.
For the younger population, Adelaide city and other LGAs close to the city centre
were the top recipients; while regional areas (with the exception of Tea Tree Gully
which saw the largest net loss, reflecting the large overall population size of this
LGA) had the biggest losses due to internal mobility of the population age 15-24
years. For the older population coastal locations, and the inland LGAs of Gawler and
the Barossa were the areas to receive the largest net gain, while areas located within
the Greater Adelaide region saw the biggest net losses of the older population in the
2006-2011 period.
Table 13: Net Internal Mobility: Top and Bottom Five Internal Migrant Receiving
LGAs 2006-2011 by Age 15-24 and 60+
Age 15-24
Age 60+
Top Five LGAs
Adelaide
1371
Alexandrina
1017
West Torrens
1084
Victor Harbor
781
Playford
992
Copper Coast
372
34
Charles Sturt
754
Gawler
322
Norwood/Payneham/St Peters
603
Barossa
309
Wattle Range
-330
Marion
-436
Loxton Waikerie
-335
Adelaide Hills
-488
Adelaide Hills
-672
Pt Adelaide/ Enfield
-492
Onkaparinga
-740
Mitcham
-511
Tea Tree Gully
-957
Tea Tree Gully
-624
Bottom Five LGAs
Source: ABS Census Data 2006, 2011
However, as mentioned above, metro areas and regional centres with higher service
levels become important destinations for people who are much older, reflecting a
movement of these populations to be closer to services.
3.4 Different Cohorts of ‘Older’ People
The older population can be divided into three sub-groups; the population aged 45-64
years (baby boomers), 65-79 years (young old) and the 80+ years (old old)
population. The baby boomer age group are generally still working and, especially in
the first half of this age spectrum, may have families with children still living at home.
The 65-79 year age group are generally retired yet reasonably healthy and active;
this group has higher levels of mobility, potentially moving to high amenity areas after
retirement. The 80+ age group tend to be frailer, they are more likely to be using
formal services, are often living alone after the death of a spouse, and may be living
closer to a town, regional centre or metro area to be closer to services and family.
From a council perspective there are clearly many differences between the needs of
each of these aged sub-groups in terms of services and infrastructure. These
population sub-groups also make different contributions on a societal level in terms of
workforce participation, formal and informal volunteering, and provision of assistance
to others. The circumstances and opportunities available for each of these cohorts of
older people will also vary based on their financial situation (e.g. disposable income,
engagement with the workforce), their household situation (e.g. living alone, renting)
and their health status (e.g. level of disability, number of chronic health conditions).
35
South Australian LGAs with the highest proportion of the total population aged 45-64
years, 65-79 years and 80+ years in 2011 are shown in Table 14. For both the 45-64
years and 65-79 years age groups, the areas with the highest total proportion of the
population in these age groups are all located outside of Greater Adelaide Area. For
the 65-79 years age group, Victor Harbour, Cooper Coast and Alexandrina reflect
areas older people have moved to after retirement (see Table 13). The areas with the
highest proportion of the ‘old old’ (80+ years) population are somewhat different.
Victor Harbour still tops the list but metropolitan locations including Holdfast Bay,
Walkerville, Burnside, Norwood Payneham St Peters and Unley all have high
proportions of the population aged 80+ years reflecting the need for older people to
be closer to services and other family members.
Table 14: LGAs with Highest Proportion of the Population Aged 45-64, 65-79
and 80+ years, 2011
45-64 years
LGA
65-79 years
LGA
%
80+ years
%
LGA
%
Yankalilla
35.1
Victor Harbor
24.2
Victor Harbor
10.5
Mid Murray
35.0
Yorke Peninsula
20.7
Orroroo/Carrieton
9.0
Kangaroo Island
35.0
Yankalilla
19.2
Holdfast Bay
8.8
Mount
Remarkable
Karoonda East
Murray
Orroroo/Carrieton
34.8
Peterborough
18.8
Walkerville
7.8
34.2
Barunga West
18.4
Barunga West
7.6
33.9
Copper Coast
18.3
Yorke Peninsula
7.2
Elliston
33.3
Alexandrina
18.0
Burnside
7.1
Barunga West
33.3
Coober Pedy
18.0
6.8
Peterborough
32.7
Tumby Bay
17.6
Norw. P'ham St
Ptrs
Unley
Yorke Peninsula
32.4
Kingston
17.4
Kimba
6.8
South Australia
26.6
South Australia
11.3
South Australia
4.9
6.8
Source: ABS Census 2011 based on place of usual residence
The older population clearly have lower rates of employment than the younger
population; with the majority of people aged 65 years and over retired. Table 15
shows the LGAs with the highest and lowest rates of employment for the older
population (65+ years). Most of the LGAs, with the exception of Adelaide Hills and
36
Adelaide City, with the highest employment rates of the population aged 65+ years
are located in rural locations. In part this reflects the established trend of older people
from farming backgrounds continuing to work on the land. Looking at the LGAs with
the lowest rates of employment for the population aged 65+ years, there is a mix of
areas in and outside of the Greater Adelaide Area. Some of the areas outside of
Adelaide featured on this list; Victor Harbour and Copper Coast, are ‘sea change’
retirement destinations for the older population, thus representing a higher proportion
of the 65+ years population who are retirees. Additionally all of these areas, with the
exception of Marion LGA, had lower than average employment rates of the total
population of all ages in 2011 (ABS 2011).
Table 15: LGAs with the Highest and Lowest Employment Rates of the
Population Aged 65+, 20111
n 65+ Employed
% 65+ Pop Employed
Grant
203
20.9
Kingston
102
20.0
Naracoorte and Lucindale
253
19.9
The Coorong
202
19.3
Kangaroo Island
143
18.9
Adelaide Hills
950
18.4
Clare and Gilbert Valleys
297
18.3
Adelaide
398
18.1
Light
279
18.0
Tatiara
183
18.0
Lower Eyre Peninsula
119
17.7
Whyalla
174
5.3
Playford
512
5.5
Gawler
218
5.9
Port Adelaide Enfield
996
5.9
Victor Harbor
284
5.9
Copper Coast
191
6.1
Port Pirie City and Dists
208
6.3
37
Salisbury
Marion
Charles Sturt
Total South Australia
1027
6.5
986
7.1
1389
24354
7.2
9.5
1 Only
included LGAs with at least 100 people aged 65+ employed
Source: ABS 2011 Census data, place of usual residence
Older people are often viewed as an economic drain on the economy because of
their lower rates of participation in paid work and greater need for services; however
they make contributions to communities in other ways, for example through
volunteering and caring for family members. The average volunteer rate across
South Australia for all ages was 16.2 percent in 2011. Figure 11 shows that rates of
volunteering peak in the 65-79 age cohort followed by the 40-44 years age group and
the baby boomer cohort (45-64 years). It is important to note that over ten percent of
all people aged 80+ years in the state and nearly 15 percent of the 80+ years
population in non-metro areas actively volunteer.
Figure 11: Volunteering Rates by Age, Greater Adelaide, Rest of SA and South
Australia, 2011
Source: ABS 2011 Census data
It is apparent is that volunteer rates are substantially higher in rural areas of the state
for all age groups. This divergence is most apparent in the population aged 35-64
years, where the rates of volunteering are at least ten percent higher for those living
in rural compared to urban areas. The LGAs with the highest rates of volunteering for
38
the 65+ years population are shown in Table 16, reflecting the higher rates of
volunteering in non-metropolitan areas; with all areas on this list located outside of
the Greater Adelaide Area.
Table 16: Areas with the Highest Rates of Volunteering for the 65+ Population
n 65+ volunteer
% 65+ Volunteer
Kimba
88
40.2
Cleve
120
37.2
Kingston
185
36.6
Clare and Gilbert Valleys
588
36.3
Kangaroo Island
272
36.2
Southern Mallee
139
35.5
Tatiara
355
34.8
78
34.5
Lower Eyre Peninsula
228
33.8
Naracoorte and Lucindale
430
33.6
53442
20.8
Franklin Harbour
Total South Australia
Source: ABS Census 2011 based on place of usual residence
The areas with the largest number of older volunteers reflect areas with a larger total
population size; Onkaparinga, Mitcham, Charles Sturt, Tea Tree Gully, Marion, Port
Adelaide Enfield, Burnside and Salisbury LGAs all had 2,000 or more volunteers
aged over 65.
Along with an ageing population comes an increased demand for care and formal
aged care services; however the older population are also the greatest providers of
unpaid care to others. Table 17 shows the proportion of each older age group who
provide unpaid assistance to someone with a disability or receive assistance, by
area. The baby boomer age group (45-64 years) has the highest rate of providing
unpaid assistance followed by the 65-79 years age group in South Australia. The rate
of providing care in older age cohorts decreases with age while the rates of receiving
care increase with age.
Table 17: Rates of Providing and Receiving Unpaid Assistance by Age, Greater
Adelaide, Rest of SA, Total SA and Australia, 2011
PROVIDE ASSISTANCE
% 80+
% 65-79
% 45-64
Greater Adelaide
6.8
12.8
18.0
Rest of SA
6.6
11.4
16.3
Total SA
6.8
12.4
17.5
TOTAL AUSTRALIA
6.9
12.1
16.1
RECEIVE ASSISTANCE
% 80+
% 65-79
% 45-64
39
Greater Adelaide
38.1
10.4
4.5
Rest of SA
34.9
9.5
5.1
Total SA
37.4
10.2
4.6
TOTAL AUSTRALIA
36.6
10.6
4.2
Source: ABS Census 2011 based on place of usual residence
This chapter sought to highlight the distribution of the older population within South
Australian LGAs and to point out that this older population offers South Australian
communities
positive
opportunities for
building
social
considerations for demands of current services in the future.
40
capital
as well
as
4. International Migration and its Effects
This chapter will explore the changing demographic profile of South Australia as a
result of immigration. Immigration has historically played a very important role in
South Australia’s demographic profile, particularly in the post-war years. In the last
decade, South Australia has experienced an immense change in the area of
international migration chiefly as a result of policy changes.
4.1 Overview of South Australia’s Migration Profile
As seen in Table 18, net overseas migration more than doubled between 2000 and
2005 and doubled again by 2008. Net overseas migrants in South Australia peaked
in 2008-2009 (17,985) and reached 7.4 percent of the national net international
migration intake for 2009-2010; the highest since the first half of the 1970s.
Table 18: South Australia: Net Overseas Migration
No.
% of All Australia
Net Gain
1999-2000
3,829
3.6
2000-01
2,765
2.0
2001-02
2,798
2.5
2002-03
3,904
3.4
2003-04
4,305
4.3
2004-05
7,020
5.7
2005-06
9,813
6.7
2006-07
14,638
6.3
2007-08
15,324
5.5
2008-09
17,984
6.0
2009-10
14,550
7.4
2010-11
8,667
5.1
2011-12
11,274
5.4
Year
Source: ABS, Australian Demographic Statistics, various issues
Significant shifts in Australia’s international migration policy have influenced net
migration levels. While net migration in South Australia has decreased in terms of
numbers and in terms its overall share of national intake since 2008-09 the state
currently settles a higher proportion than other states and territories of the national
population in both skilled and humanitarian categories. It is evident in Figure 12 that
the expansion of the skilled migration intake has fuelled the State’s increased
immigration influx in the last decade. This expansion was largely a function of the
41
State’s active involvement in the State Specific and Regional Migration Scheme
(SSRM) which is discussed below.
Figure 12: South Australia: Permanent Migrant Additions by Category, 2001-02
to 2010-11
Source: DIAC, 2012a, 126
Table 19 shows the growth of the SSRM program in terms of the numbers of
immigrants and the proportion they make up of the total non-humanitarian intake in
both Australia and South Australia. There has been an increase in the percentage
that SSRM migrants make up of the total intake; however South Australia’s
dependence on the Scheme has declined in more recent years.
It is interesting that South Australia has taken a substantial share of the national
refugee-humanitarian settler intake over the entire period increasing from 7.2 percent
in 2002-03 to 9.4 percent in 2006-07. Refugee-humanitarian settlers are directed
upon arrival in Australia to communities where there are support services in place for
them. While these services need to be in place this of course places some pressure
on support services across the State, especially since there has been increased
settlement of some refugee-humanitarian arrivals outside of the Adelaide area, where
support resources may be more limited. The increase of migrants with humanitarian
backgrounds is evident by the high number of Africa and Asia born in LGAs such as
Mount Gambier and Murray Bridge (see: Table 28).
42
Table 19: Number of Immigrants with Visas Granted Under the State Regional
Specific Migration Mechanisms and their Proportion of the Total Immigrant
Intake,* 2000 to 2012
Year
Number
Percent of Total
Percent of Total
Percent in SA Immigrant Intake
Immigrant Intake*
in SA*
2000-01
3,846
3.6
19.5
23.6
2001-02
4,136
3.4
17.5
15.8
2002-03
7,941
6.3
16.7
28.3
2003-04
12,725
8.5
16.6
33.6
2004-05
18,697
11.2
26.5
56.3
2005-06
27,488
15.3
29.8
68.9
2006-07
25,845
13.5
27.7
54.9
2007-08
26,162
12.7
26.9
54.1
2008-09
33,474
14.9
22.9
56.9
2009-10
36,568
17.5
26.0
83.9
2010-11
37,410
17.5
19.9
63.9
2011-12
47,733
n/a
n/a
n/a
* Permanent additions from 2001-02.
Source: DIAC, Population Flows: Immigration Aspects, various issues; DIAC, Immigration Update,
various issues; DIAC 2012b
It is also interesting to note in Table 20 that the fifth largest country of origin of South
Australian permanent migrants in 2010-2011 was Afghanistan, with most of them on
refugee-humanitarian visas. Between 2006 and 2011, the Afghanistan-born
population in South Australia increased from 1,390 to 3,288. Along with some SubSaharan African groups that also have been an important part of this intake, they
have greatly added to the multicultural diversity of the State.
Table 20: South Australia: Top 10 Countries of Permanent Additions, 2010-11
Onshore
Offshore
Total
China
1138
715
1853
India
741
847
1582
United Kingdom
340
864
1204
Philippines
217
376
593
Afghanistan
53
364
417
0
412
412
Koreaa
165
227
392
South Africa
173
195
368
Malaysia
171
137
308
Sri Lanka
70
223
293
1449
2850
4299
Total
4517
a) Includes both North Korea and South Korea
Source: DIAC, 2012a, 126
7204
11721
New Zealand
Other
43
Table 20 also shows that 38.5 percent of permanent immigration additions to the
population in 2010-11 were ‘onshore’. These are persons who are in Australia on a
temporary residence or visitor visa and successfully applied for permanent residence.
This factor was especially significant for the Indians, Chinese and Malaysians where
those transitioning to permanency were mostly overseas students. In comparison,
groups from the Philippines and South Africa were mainly associated with family
migration.
The increasing nexus between temporary and permanent migration is an important
feature of immigration in South Australia and in Australia generally. Alongside
international students, other prominent non-permanent migrant groups include
temporary business migrants and working holiday makers (WHM). Table 21 shows
the numbers of 457 visa holders indicating they will be working in South Australia,
from this table it is apparent that the State receives a disproportionately small
proportion of the 457 visa intake and that this has been a consistent pattern over
time. WHM are a second significant group among temporary residents. This part of
the Temporary Migration program allows young adults (aged 18-30) from selected
countries to have an extended holiday in Australia during which they can supplement
their funds through short term employment.
Table 21: Australia and South Australia: Temporary Business (Long Stay) 457
and Working Holiday Makers, 2005-11
457
WHM
Year
SA
Australia
Percent
SA
Australia
Percent
December 2011
4,296
128,602
3.3
2,140
130,612
1.6
June 2011
4,503
131,304
3.4
1,862
107,978
1.7
December 2010
3,972
116,012
3.4
1,856
114,158
1.6
December 2009
4,230
119,017
3.6
1,851
116,805
1.6
December 2008
4,626
132,027
3.5
1,647
108,268
1.5
December 2007
3,987
104,791
3.8
1,325
87,577
1.5
June 2006
2,770
80,137
3.5
830
63,130
1.3
June 2005
3,015
83,618
3.6
1,109
79,592
1.4
Source: DIAC, Immigration Update, various issues
Working holiday makers contribute to a number of economic sectors such as fruit
picking and other seasonal agricultural activities, as well as seasonal tourism related
jobs. Unlike 457 visa holders, who are tied to an employer in a particular place, WHM
are able to travel between states (Harding and Webster, 2002; Tan et al., 2009).
Nevertheless, it is clear that South Australia is also significantly underrepresented as
44
a place of destination for WHMs. Table 21 indicates that less than two percent give
South Australia as the first destination upon arrival in Australia; however it is difficult
to track the mobility of WHM between census periods and furthermore, the timing of
the census during the winter months would suggest a lower presence of WHM in
agricultural regions in South Australia when seasonal demand for workers would be
low. In a similar sense, there has been some evidence of secondary relocation of
humanitarian migrants to areas such as the Murray Bridge (Balasingam and
Neumann forthcoming) and Naracoorte-Lucindale LGAs, which isn’t reflected in the
census data4.
The nature of contemporary migration to Australia, particularly in the last five years
not only highlights the importance of understanding migrant settlement patterns and
their distribution across South Australia, but also underlines the issues surrounding
the lack of understanding on the migration trends which will have an impact on
communities across the state. For example, the significance of temporary migration
in Australia is often overlooked. Temporary migrants currently make up almost five
percent of workers in Australia (Hugo, 2006) and they have major impacts on the
housing market (Khoo et al., 2012). Their effects on the housing and labour markets
are exacerbated by the fact that we know little about them. They are not identified
separately in the population census. In fact, temporary migration has accounted for
around half of net migration gain in Australia in recent years which underlines the
necessity of increasing the evidence base on their impact.
Moreover, the substantial growth in the temporary resident population (including 457s
and students) is especially significant as they are the most likely groups to convert to
permanent residence. Table 22 shows that ‘onshore’ migrants make up an important
part of the contribution of migration to population growth in both South Australia and
Australia as a whole. In 2006-07 onshore migrants made up 37.7 percent of the total
skilled migration intake in the State. This indicates the important nexus which is
developing in Australia between 457 and student migration on the one hand and
settlement on the other.
4
This is also supported by anecdotal evidence from community stakeholders as part of an
APMRC project currently underway in the Limestone Coast region.
45
Table 22: South Australia: Onshore and Offshore Migration, 2001-11
Onshore
Arrivals
Total
South
Australia
Onshore %
2001-02
1,147
3,316
4,463
25.7
26.6
2002-03
1,017
3,657
4,674
21.8
25.4
2003-04
1,384
4,773
6,157
22.5
25.6
2004-05
2,433
6,364
8,797
27.7
26.2
2005-06
2,780
9,099
11,879
23.4
26.8
2006-07
2,976
10,061
13,037
22.8
27.0
2007-08
3,111
9,896
13,007
23.9
27.5
2008-09
3,745
9,695
13,440
27.9
29.6
2009-10
3,864
11,377
15,241
25.4
32.7
2010-11
4,517
7,204
11,721
38.5
40.3
% Increase
293.8
117.2
Source: DIAC, Immigration Update, various issues
162.6
South Australia
Australia
Onshore %
4.2 Mulitcultural Diversity in South Australia
The changing face of immigration, especially in the last five years suggests that
communities across Australia are on the cusp of a dramatic transformation in the
ethnic makeup of their respective populations. A number of indicators taken from the
2011 census comparing the diversity resulting from international migration for
Australia and South Australia are shown in Table 23. Nearly half of the South
Australian population is an immigrant or has a parent who was born overseas.
Although the proportion of Culturally and Linguistically Diverse (CALD) communities
is lower than the Australian average, significantly 15 percent of the population speak
a language other than English at home.
Table 23: Indicators of Multicultural Diversity, Australia and South Australia:
2011 Census
South
Australia
Australia
% born overseas
23.2
26.1
% non-English-Speaking overseas-born
13.3
16.7
% mainly English-Speaking overseas-born
9.9
9.4
% speaking language other than English at home
15.0
19.2
% born in Asia
6.1
8.6
% born in Sub-Saharan Africa
0.9
1.3
% born in Europe
13.6
10.5
% Australia-born with overseas-born parent
18.8
18.8
% overseas-born not able to speak English at all or well
9.1
9.8
% with a non-Christian religion
5.3
7.9
Source: ABS 2011 Census of Population and Housing
46
The more recent dramatic change in the State’s ethnic profile is evident in Table 24
which shows a shift away from traditional migrant source countries. Over the last two
decades the Australia-born population in South Australia has increased at 0.47
percent per annum but the UK and European populations have declined at around
one percent per annum. On the other hand the Asia, Africa and Middle Eastern born
populations have increased at more than five percent per annum.
Table 24: South Australia: Birthplace of the Population, 1991-2011
Birthplace
1991
2011
% Growth p.a.
1,065,284
1,170,790
0.47
UK-Ireland
145,872
125,273
-0.76
Other Europe
106,196
82,643
-1.25
32,761
92,512
5.33
8,433
25,646
5.72
12,123
15,407
1.21
Australia
Asia
Africa and the Middle East
Oceania
Source: ABS 1991 and 2011 Censuses
This change is reflected in Table 25 which shows the largest overseas-born groups in
the State over the last 30 years. In 1981 the top seven source countries were
European; however, by 2011 half of the top ten are Asian. Moreover, the numbers of
UK/Ireland, Italy, Germany, Greece and Netherlands born have actually declined
significantly, areas that were historically dominant source countries for immigrants in
the post war period in South Australia. It is important to recognise that compared to
the total population, the overseas born population is distributed differently across
South Australia. From a regional perspective, the Adelaide metropolitan area has
experienced a significant increase in its overseas born population in 2006-2011.
Table 25: 10 Largest Overseas-Born Groups in South Australia, 1981-2011
Birthplace
UK & Ireland
1981
Birthplace
1991
Birthplace
Birthplace
2011
31,323
UK &
Ireland
Italy
28,961
Italy
24,964
UK &
Ireland
Italy
Germany
14,755
Germany
14,349
Germany
12,660
India
18,743
Greece
14,206
Greece
13,625
Greece
11,677
China
15,934
Netherlands
10,646
10,080
New Zealand
10,989
9,066
9,853
Viet Nam
10,441
New
Zealand
Vietnam
12,850
Yugoslavia
New
Zealand
Netherlands
Poland
6,786
Viet Nam
8,285
Netherlands
8,301
Germany
11,409
New Zealand
6,618
Yugoslavia
9,044
Poland
6,911
Greece
9,757
Vietnam
3,845
Poland
8,332
Philippines
4,512
Philippines
8,858
India
2,485
Malaysia
4,161
Yugoslavia
4,270
Netherlands
7,281
Italy
152,087
Source: ABS Census Time Series
47
145,440
UK & Ireland
2001
127,274
125,273
20,710
12,023
4.3 Mulitcultural Diversity at the LGA Level
At a broad regional level as shown in Table 26, the Adelaide Metropolitan region
experienced a 9.6 percent increase in its overseas born population (30,061) in 20062011. This was followed by the Murraylands and Riverland, Far North, Barossa and
Adelaide Hills, Fleurieu and Kangaroo Island. The remaining regions, Limestone
Coast, Whyalla and Eyre Peninsula and Yorke and Mid-North posted decreases in
their overseas born populations.
Table 26: Change in Overseas born population in South Australia by regions,
2006-2011
2006
2011
Absolute
change
22932
23704
772
3.4
314602
344663
30061
9.6
Barossa
11627
12096
469
4.0
Far North
4117
4411
294
7.1
Limestone Coast
8768
8360
-408
-4.7
Murraylands and Riverland
10436
11376
940
9.0
Whyalla and Eyre Peninsula
10030
9555
-475
-4.7
Yorke and Mid-North
10113
9605
-508
-5.0
Adelaide Hills, Fleurieu and Kangaroo Island
Adelaide Metropolitan
%
Change
Source: ABS 2006; 2011 Census of Population and Housing
Table 27 shows the growth of the overseas born population in terms of population
numbers for the top 20 LGAs across South Australia for 2006-20115. In terms of
absolute numbers, the top ten largest growing LGAs were located in metropolitan
Adelaide with Port Adelaide Enfield registering the largest growth. The increasing
urbanisation of the overseas born is a function of mostly new arrivals settling in
Australia’s capital cities.
On the other hand, the top ten LGAs in terms of percentage growth were mostly
located in non-metropolitan areas of South Australia with Adelaide and Port Adelaide
Enfield as the only two metropolitan LGAs. Roxby Downs had a 63 percent
percentage increase in its overseas born population, followed by Franklin Harbour
(47.4 percent), Murray Bridge (31.3 percent), Orroroo/Carrieton (30.9 percent),
5
For data on all South Australian LGAs please see Appendix Two
48
Adelaide (28.2 percent), Naracoorte and Lucindale (26.5 percent), Southern Mallee
(20.8 percent), Victor Harbour (19.7 percent), Port Adelaide Enfield (17.7 percent)
and The Coorong (13.2 percent). This demonstrates a changing distribution of the
overseas born distribution between South Australian LGAs, underlining the
increasing prominence of non-metropolitan areas as settlement destinations.
Table 27: Absolute Change of Overseas Born in Top Twenty South Australian
LGAs 2006-2011
LGA
Year
Absolute change
% Change
2006
2011
2006-2011
Port Adelaide Enfield
34552
40672
6120
17.7
Salisbury
37735
42625
4890
13.0
Marion
21426
24191
2765
12.9
Onkaparinga
38277
40982
2705
7.1
West Torrens
16405
18572
2167
13.2
7691
9861
2170
28.2
Charles Sturt
31798
33544
1746
5.5
Campbelltown
15964
17581
1617
10.1
8691
9698
1007
11.6
Playford
20420
21385
965
4.7
Norwood- Paynhm- St Peters
10901
11827
926
8.5
2731
3585
854
31.3
12472
13307
835
6.7
9516
10242
726
7.6
Mitcham
15330
15974
644
4.2
Prospect
5487
6123
636
11.6
Victor Harbor
2980
3567
587
19.7
Roxby Downs
684
1115
431
63.0
Mount Barker
4870
5234
364
7.5
Gawler
4506
4777
271
6.0
394251
425780
31529
8.0
Adelaide
Holdfast Bay
Murray Bridge
Burnside
Unley
South Australia
Source: ABS 2006; 2011 Census of Population and Housing
49
2006-2011
Table 28 shows the main concentrations of key subgroups of the overseas born
population in metropolitan and non-metropolitan LGAs in the South Australia. Taking
all Culturally and Linguistically Diverse (CALD) groups together (i.e. mainly non
English speaking countries), the longstanding concentration of overseas born groups
in Adelaide’s northern and western suburbs is strongly in evidence. However, it is
interesting to note that Burnside LGA is in the top ten areas.
This reflects the change in Australian immigration which is increasingly focused on
skilled migrants in higher socioeconomic groups. In the early post war years
immigrants were concentrated in the lower socioeconomic parts of the city. The
majority of migrants outside of Adelaide tended to converge in regional centres.
However, it is also notable that there are significant numbers in the peri-urban areas
of Adelaide and in the Riverland, which traditionally has been a focus of settlement of
CALD groups (Hugo, 1975).
Table 28 highlights the main metropolitan and non-metropolitan LGAs with large
numbers of households which speak a language other than English at home. The
highest is in Adelaide, reflecting the large proportion of the population made up of
international (mainly Asian) students. However, even in large LGAs like Salisbury, 23
percent of the population speak a language other than English at home which reflects
the increasing diversity across South Australia. The distribution of the Africa-born
population (except those from South Africa) in Table 28 is interesting given that many
in this group are former refugees. There is a strong concentration of African migrants
in the northern and western LGAs of Adelaide but also small but significant numbers
in regional centres and in the Limestone Coast region. Compared to the African born,
the numbers of Asia-born are larger and show similar patterns of distribution across
South Australia.
50
Table 28: South Australia: Top 10 LGAs for Metropolitan/Non-Metropolitan for
Selected Groups, 2011
Mainly Non English Speaking Countries
Top 10 Metro LGAs
Top 10 Non Metro LGAs
No.
Port Adelaide Enfield
Salisbury
Charles Sturt
West Torrens
Campbelltown
Marion
Onkaparinga
Tea Tree Gully
Mitcham
Burnside
26835
23376
22018
12941
12791
11728
10686
9953
7829
7628
Whyalla
Mount Gambier
Murray Bridge
Mount Barker
Alexandrina
Renmark Paringa
Berri and Barmera
Barossa
Port Pirie City and Dists
Victor Harbor
% Speaking Language Other Than English at Home
Top 10 Metro LGAs
No.
Top 10 Non Metro LGAs
Adelaide
Campbelltown
West Torrens
Port Adelaide Enfield
Charles Sturt (C)
Norwood Payneham St Peters
Prospect
Salisbury
Burnside
Walkerville
Top 10 Metro LGAs
Port Adelaide Enfield
Salisbury
Charles Sturt
Playford
West Torrens
Marion
Tea Tree Gully
Campbelltown
Onkaparinga
Mitcham
Top 10 Metro LGAs
35.3
34.0
30.4
29.6
28.0
26.1
26.1
23.0
19.9
19.1
Africa-born (not including S. Africa)
No.
Top 10 Non Metro LGAs
1750
1296
1283
1134
717
708
572
529
528
333
Asia-born
No.
Port Adelaide Enfield
15705
Salisbury
12526
Charles Sturt
7730
West Torrens
6379
Marion
5591
Campbelltown
5236
Adelaide
4729
Burnside
4417
Mitcham
3723
Norwood Payneham St Peters
3615
Source: ABS 2011 Census of Population and Housing
51
Anangu Pitjantjatjara
Maralinga Tjarutja
Coober Pedy
Renmark Paringa
Berri and Barmera
Roxby Downs
Murray Bridge
Ceduna
Whyalla
Naracoorte and Lucindale
Murray Bridge
Mount Gambier
Mount Barker
Whyalla
Tatiara
Roxby Downs
Alexandrina
Port Pirie City and Dists
Light
Victor Harbor
Top 10 Non Metro LGAs
Murray Bridge
Mount Gambier
Whyalla
Renmark Paringa
Mount Barker
Naracoorte and Lucindale
Tatiara
Berri and Barmera
Port Augusta
Alexandrina
No.
1432
1391
1385
1308
963
927
785
672
632
582
No.
85.4
78.3
27.2
15.1
10.3
8.4
7.8
7.2
6.6
5.9
No.
128
123
72
61
53
47
45
44
24
24
No.
703
480
459
445
341
323
277
240
215
213
Table 29 shows the top ten countries of birth for new arrivals (people who have
arrived in Australia since the 2006 census), further emphasising this demographic
and cultural shift. With an increase 3,539 arrivals in 2006 to 13,246 in 2011, India has
displaced England as the most important source country for new immigrants in South
Australia. Other countries such as the Philippines and Afghanistan are also becoming
increasingly important source countries.
Table 29: South Australia Top 10 Countries of Birth for New Arrivals 2006-2011
Top 10 Country of birth 2006
England
China (excludes SARs and Taiwan
Province)
India
Malaysia
South Africa
New Zealand
Sudan
Korea, Republic of (South)
Philippines
No.
Top 10 Country of birth 2011
6708
4570
India
No.
13246
England
10268
2071
China (excludes
Taiwan)
Philippines
1871
Malaysia
2850
1726
South Africa
2447
1245
New Zealand
2238
1135
Afghanistan
2031
Korea, Republic of (South)
1899
3539
1134
Afghanistan
1007 Vietnam
Source: ABS 2006; 2011 Census of Population and Housing
SARs
and
9884
3633
1716
At a glance, it is evident that a significant number of new arrivals in South Australia
are from Mainly Non English Speaking (MNES) countries. There are two long
established trends in Australian post war immigrant settlement patterns. Immigrants
from MNES countries have always displayed a clear pattern in settling in capital
cities. Conversely those from Mainly English Speaking (MES) countries, particularly
from the UK and New Zealand, tend to have similar settlement patterns as the
Australia-born population. Over time however, both groups demonstrate settlement
patterns which are similar to those of the Australia-born. Despite these trends, the
changing composition of the overseas born, particularly new arrivals suggests that
there is a need to shed light on their distribution within South Australia. It is therefore
important to understand the distribution of new arrivals, particularly those from MES
and MNES countries.
Looking at the inter-censal changes in the top ten countries of birth for new arrivals
within an LGA not only gives an insight into the rapid changes in the diversity of
immigrants in South Australian communities, but also reveals a shift in the where
they settle. At a glance, the top ten LGAs (in terms of absolute numbers) receiving
52
the most new arrivals in 2006-2011 (see Appendix Three) reveals an increasing shift
towards immigrants from MNES countries. LGAs such as Salisbury, Charles Sturt
and Playford demonstrate how traditional source countries such as the United
Kingdom are increasingly being displaced as top source countries. The Playford LGA
is an example of a council which has experienced significant changes to their
immigrant community. Out of the top ten countries of birth for new arrivals taken in
the 2006 Census in the Playford LGA, only five countries remained at the 2011
Census. The new replacements are largely from refugee backgrounds, they include
source countries such as Afghanistan, Burundi, Tanzania, Democratic Republic of
Congo and Sudan, giving an African flavour to the Playford LGA.
New arrivals from India and China are also increasingly significant source countries
for several LGAs such as Port Adelaide Enfield, Salisbury, West Torrens,
Campbelltown, Charles Sturt and Norwood-Payneham-St Peters. The tendency of
new arrivals, particularly from the above countries, to settle in these LGAs will
strongly impact on the multicultural diversity of each LGA. It is important to
understand the cultural-spatial distribution of new arrivals as this highlights the
significant variations in settlement patterns of different ethnic groups and emphasises
the importance of existing cultural and ethnic support communities for new arrivals.
For example: there is a significant concentration of Indians in many of the
metropolitan LGAs, however they appear to settle away from the city centre
(Adelaide LGA). LGAs located in the south, such as Marion and Onkaparinga have
relatively lower proportions of new arrivals from India; conversely there is a high
concentration of new arrivals from China settling in the Adelaide LGA.
There are some parallels between the top ten countries of birth in the Adelaide and
Norwood-Payneham-St Peters LGAs, and the top ten source countries for
international students in Australia (AEI 2012). These areas are located close to
several educational institutions based in the Adelaide CBD which underlines the role
of the international education industry in shaping settlement patterns. Australia’s
immigration policy, national and global economic and political situations have a role
in shaping immigration patterns. New arrivals from MNES countries such as
Afghanistan, Bhutan, Tanzania, Sudan and Burundi tend to be concentrated in
northern LGAs such as Salisbury and Playford. It is anticipated as their English
language ability improves, more opportunities to relocate will arise through improved
employment, purchasing power and housing opportunities.
53
There has been a longstanding pattern of immigrants, especially CALD groups,
settling in metropolitan Adelaide (Hugo, 2010). This pattern is still prevalent and can
be anticipated to continue over the next two decades. Nevertheless, there is a small
but significant change evident with more immigrants settling outside Adelaide. It is
recognised that the outflow of young South Australians from some non-metropolitan
areas is creating a need for workers in some areas like agriculture and food
processing. This pattern is evident elsewhere in the world and can be expected to
strengthen in South Australia over the next decade.
54
5. Changing Households and Families
One important dimension of change in South Australia’s population over the recent
decades has been in the way people group into households and families. This is of
crucial importance since demand and need for many goods and services are created
by households rather than individuals. In this context it is relevant that the rate of
growth of households has generally outpaced the growth of the population over
recent decades (NHSC, 2012). Moreover, not only has there been a shift in the
number of households, but also a change in the pattern of living arrangements. It is
important to understand the links between these changes with population growth,
ageing and societal change as their changing needs for goods and services will
continue to occur into the future.
This chapter looks at growth rates in different family household types, changes in
household types and changes in tenure types across South Australian LGAs over
time. The types of households captured in the census are: ‘couple with children’
households, ‘couple with no children’ households, ‘lone person’ households, ‘single
parent’ households and ‘group’ households. Changes in the growth rate of different
household types serve as an indicator of other changes to the population structure
occurring within the LGA. This chapter will focus on differences across LGAs in the
growth rates of ‘couple with children’ households, ‘couple with no children’
households and ‘lone person’ households as these household types account for the
majority of households in all areas of South Australia.
5.1 Household Growth
Table 30 shows the top ten LGAs with highest average annual growth rates in 20062011 and the top ten fastest growing LGAs in terms of absolute numbers and
corresponding growth in total households in each area. Not surprisingly, the LGAs to
experience the largest average annual growth in the total number of households from
2006-2011 had above average rates of average annual growth of the total population
in the same period. However, between the two census periods, a number of the
LGAs in Table 30 with above average annual growth rate in households had
experienced slowing population growth rates. LGAs that continued to experience
substantial average annual household increases were Victor Harbour, Copper Coast,
Playford and Gawler. This growth is largely due to the fact that Victor Harbour and
Copper Coast are increasingly popular destinations for sea changes retirees. These
LGAs, as reflected in Table 14, had significant net gains in persons aged over 65.
55
The internal migration of older Australians to high amenity inland (‘tree change’)
areas for retirement could also be a reason in the growth in households for Gawler.
Conversely, new housing developments in the Playford LGA, as already mentioned,
may be a driving factor behind its growth which is reflected in its younger age profile.
Table 30: Growth Rates of Top 10 Fastest Growing South Australian LGAs;
Change in Total Households, 2001-2011
Top 10 fastest growing
LGAs (average annual
change)
LGA
Total households
Total
households change
Total
households average
annual change
2001
2006
2011
20012006
20062011
20012006
20062011
42
22
27
-20
5
-12.1
4.2
Adelaide
6426
7841
9439
1415
1598
4.1
3.8
Victor Harbor
4663
5232
6140
569
908
2.3
3.3
Alexandrina
7211
8502
9845
1291
1343
3.3
3.0
Copper Coast
4469
4838
5580
369
742
1.6
2.9
Mount Barker
8543
9802
11180
1259
1378
2.8
2.7
Light
3643
4337
4904
694
567
3.5
2.5
24808
26781
30029
1973
3248
1.5
2.3
Gawler
6976
7569
8469
593
900
1.6
2.3
Yankalilla
1566
1760
1965
194
205
2.4
2.2
Top 10 fastest growing
LGAs (absolute number)
2001
2006
2011
20012006
20062011
20012006
20062011
Onkaparinga
54637
57580
62227
2943
4647
1.1
1.6
Salisbury
40722
44811
49047
4089
4236
1.9
1.8
Playford
24808
26781
30029
1973
3248
1.5
2.3
Port Adelaide Enfield
41966
43489
46340
1523
2851
0.7
1.3
6426
7841
9439
1415
1598
4.1
3.8
Maralinga Tjarutja
Playford
Adelaide
56
Marion
32226
33321
34796
1095
1475
0.7
0.9
Charles Sturt
41959
42476
43938
517
1462
0.2
0.7
Mount Barker
8543
9802
11180
1259
1378
2.8
2.7
Alexandrina
7211
8502
9845
1291
1343
3.3
3.0
Victor Harbor
4663
5232
6140
569
908
2.3
3.3
581791
607830
641778
26039
33948
0.9
1.1
SOUTH AUSTRALIA
Source: ABS Census data 2001,2006, 2011
In terms of absolute numbers, metropolitan LGAs experienced the largest increase of
households in 2006-2011. In the Adelaide metropolitan area, Onkaparinga, Salisbury
and Playford had the largest increase in the number of households followed by Port
Adelaide Enfield, Adelaide, Marion and Charles Sturt. Regional LGAs such as Mount
Barker, Alexandrina and Victor Harbour also had significant increases. The sea
change phenomenon is driving household increase in coastal areas such as Victor
Harbour and Alexandrina (see Table 14); however, household increases in
metropolitan LGAs are influenced by other factors. For example, the role of
international migration in driving household change, as discussed in the previous
chapter, is a feature for some of the top ten LGAs with the largest number of
household increase (Salisbury, Charles Sturt, Marion, Onkaparinga, Adelaide and
Playford). These areas were also in the top ten LGAs that received the greatest
number of new arrivals, placing higher demands for housing in these areas.
5.2 Household Types
Understanding the social shifts in family and household formation processes is
crucial for policymakers and service providers. Table 31 shows that across the state
from 1991-2011 there has been a 45 percent increase in the number of ‘single
parent’ households, whose share of all households has increased from 9.4 to 10.7
percent while at the same time the overall share of all households with children has
decreased, with ‘couple with children’ households dropping significantly in the same
period. Thus, more than one-quarter of households with children in South Australia
are ‘single parent’ households.
Table 31: Growth rates of household types in South Australia 1991-2011
Household type
57
1991
2011
Percent
Couple with no Children
Single Parent
Couple with Children
Other Family
Single Person
Other Non-Family (Group)
Number
Percent
Number
Percent
Change
127,790
25.5
171,621
27.0
34.3
46,967
9.4
68,119
10.7
45.0
189,134
37.7
177,553
27.9
-6.1
6,132
1.2
7,066
1.1
15.2
110,367
22.0
172,666
27.2
56.4
21,357
4.3
38,252
6.0
79.1
Source: ABS Census data 1991, 2011
The fact that ‘single person’ households increased by more than 50 percent over the
1991-2011 period and ‘couples without children’ by one-third is also very significant.
This share of all households has risen from 47.5 to 54.2 percent over the last two
decades, an indication of both the steadily rising divorce rate in the Western world,
but also an indicator of the movement of baby boomers into older age (and the
increasing likelihood that their children will have left home, creating ‘empty-nester’
households). In this context it should be noted that South Australia’s households are
becoming more diverse and complex in their structure and functioning. There is an
increasing significance in new types of households such as same sex partners,
blended families, group households which has particular implications for planners
and policy makers in the South Australia.
South Australia’s age structure has a strong influence on the living arrangements of
its population. Figure 13 shows the household type by age groups in South Australia
for 2011.
Figure 13: Household Types by Age in South Australia 2011
58
(a)
For the ‘Couple family with children’ household type, it includes children who were recorded to belong
to this category.
Source: ABS Census data 2011, based on place of usual residence
Clear housing mobility patterns linked to a person’s life stage are evident in the
census data, particularly for the older age groups. ‘Couple family with no children’
and ‘lone person’ households are prominent for age groups 55 years and over. The
proportion of those living alone progressively increases while the proportion of couple
only households gradually diminished. This is clearly linked to the transition of the
older population into empty nesters and eventually lone persons due to the death of
their partners. The ‘couple family with children’ household type was most prominent
for the 30-49 age group, an indication of the various stages of family formation. A
higher proportion of 20-29 year olds were living in ‘group households’, a popular
option for students, singles and young people who are not able to afford living alone
or in a smaller household. ‘Group households’ are often more concentrated in inner
city areas, which is often linked to young interstate and overseas migrants (often
students) preferring to be closer to their educational institutions as well as to
experience the vibrant lifestyle offered in the city.
The effects of population ageing, including the impact of the baby boomer cohort
moving into older age will continue to influence demand for particular types of
housing stock and population mobility in South Australia. Projections of South
Australia’s age profile (see Figure 3) indicates that this will only lead to a greater
number of people living in couple only or lone person households. Moreover, baby
59
boomers are the first generation of Australian to experience high rates of divorce and
separation which means that one-third of this population will be entering their older
years without a spouse compared to less than one-fifth of the previous generation.
The proportion of childless baby boomer women is also significantly higher than
previous generations.
These changes in household demography will impact on demands for particular
types of housing stock and particular services. For example: larger numbers of older
women living alone could see a rise in demand for home maintenance and gardening
services. It may also see an increasing need for smaller homes on smaller parcels of
land closer to shops and transport. Furthermore, as mentioned, families are
reshaped due to contemporary human and societal impacts such as increased
longevity, fertility decline, changing social norms towards marriage and non-marriage
structures (e.g. de-facto and same-sex relationships) and the delay of child bearing.
The traditional composition of a family is increasingly complex as the inherent link
between the life course, family formation and household types is increasingly fluid.
Figure 14 examines the distribution of each household type for the top 10 fastest
growing LGAs at the 2011 census as indicated in Table 30. Distribution of household
types gives an insight into the demographic makeup of each LGA and is indicative of
processes such as natural increase, mobility of the working age population and
international migration. Although the proportion of each household type has
somewhat changed from 2006-2011, the dominant household type for each LGA has
remained stable. For example in 2011, Okaparinga (30.9 percent), Salisbury (30.7
percent), Playford (28.2 percent) and Mount Barker (34.8 percent) are largely
characterised by ‘couple family with children’ households; while Alexandrina (36.6
percent) and Victor Harbour (39.5 percent) have higher concentrations of ‘couple
family without children’ households suggesting larger retiree populations. On the
other hand Port Adelaide Enfield (30.6 percent), Adelaide (36.5 percent), Marion
(29.1 percent) and Charles Sturt (29.3 percent) have higher proportions of ‘lone
person households’.
Figure 14: Proportion of Household Type in Top 10 Fastest Growing South
Australian LGAs 2006-2011
60
Source: ABS Census data 2011
Group households are a rising trend especially when compared to growth in other
household types. The National Housing Supply Council (Shelter SA 2012) has
argued that several changes such as ageing, increased divorce/separation and
government policies to keep older people in their own home as long as possible are
working to reduce the average size of household. However, lack of affordable
housing is forcing people into housing situations such as multiple family households,
multi-generation households and group households when in earlier times they may
have formed their own households. There appears to be some evidence of the above
changes influencing SA households. Figure 15 illustrates the percentage change of
each household type in each LGA for 2006-2011 with Onkaparinga, Salisbury, Port
Adelaide Enfield, Adelaide, Marion, Charles Sturt, Alexandrina and Playford
experiencing significant growth in group households.
To some extent, the increase of group households may point towards housing stress
and affordability. It also needs to be considered that many of the LGAs above are
also high recipients of international migrants (see Table 28) who at the initial stages
of arrival in Australia often live in shared accommodation. Figure 15 gives an
indication of how increasing pressure in the State’s housing market and a lack of
affordable housing has also led to a declining growth of persons owning their own
61
homes outright (-11.4%) from 2001-2011. Although this was largely the case for
several of the LGAs in Figure 15, it was the opposite for Victor Harbour, Alexandrina,
Mount Barker and Adelaide LGAs. The percentage increase of persons who owned
their homes outright in some areas is once again linked to a proportion of the older
population retiring and buying homes in coastal LGAs such as Victor Harbour and
Alexandrina.
Figure 15: Percentage Change of Tenure Type for Household Types in Top 10
Fastest Growing South Australian LGAs 2001-2011
(a) Includes dwellings being purchased under a rent/buy scheme.
(b) Comprises dwellings being rented from a parent/other relative or other person and dwellings being rented through a 'Residential park (includes
caravan parks and marinas)', 'Employer - Government (includes Defence Housing Authority)' and 'Employer - other employer'.
(c) Includes dwellings being occupied under a life tenure scheme.
Source: ABS Census data 2001 2006, 2011
Housing pressure and the lack of affordable housing in South Australia is underlined
in Figure 16. It clearly shows that over the 2001-2011 period, the rate of increase in
median total household income weekly (51.7% increase) was outstripped by the
increase in median rental payments weekly (100% increase) and median monthly
mortgage repayments (123.2% increase).
Figure 16: Comparison of Increases between Median Income with Rent and
Mortgage Payments 2001-2011
62
Source: ABS Census data 2001 2006, 2011
This chapter has shown that not only has there been a shift in the number of
households in South Australia, but also a change in the pattern of living
arrangements and the spatial distribution of those household types, reflective of the
changes in South Australia’s population. Changes in the growth rate of different
household types serve as an indicator of other changes to the population structure
occurring within the LGA and these changes in population growth, demographic
composition and societal change influence the demand for goods and services at the
local level.
63
6. Changing Patterns of Employment
This chapter briefly describes the patterns of employment and unemployment across
South Australia.
The rates of employment across age groups in the Greater Adelaide area, Rest of
State and South Australia are shown in Figure 17. It is apparent that after the age of
64, rates of employment decrease substantially as people move into retirement. An
ageing population in South Australia means a shrinking workforce; 43 percent of
South Australia’s workforce is in the baby boomer age cohort (45-64 years), most of
whom will reach the current retirement age within the next two decades. This will be
an issue for all areas of the state, but some areas will be impacted more than others
because of the age and employment structure of the population. Areas of the state
with the highest growth rate of the older population are outside of the Greater
Adelaide capital city area (see Ageing and its Effects section of this report).
There are higher rates of employment for the younger population aged 15-24 years
and older population aged 65+ years living outside of urban locations in South
Australia. For the 25-64 years aged population, rates of employment are higher in the
Greater Adelaide Area.
Figure 17: Percent Employed by Age and Area, 2011
Source: ABS 2011 Census data, based on place of usual residence
Figure 18 shows the occupation of employed persons by area to give an overview of
the composition of occupations of South Australia’s employed population and to
identify differences across areas. Professionals, Clerical and Administrative and Tech
64
and Trades are the top occupations in South Australia, and although the proportions
vary, these are also the top occupations for employed persons living in the Adelaide
capital city area and Australia as a whole. Outside of the Adelaide metropolitan area,
Managers, Labourers and Tech and Trade workers are the top three occupations. A
substantially higher proportion of employed persons in metro areas are working in
Professional and Clerical and Administrative positions compared to non-metro areas
while non-metro areas have a higher proportion of Managers, Operators and Drivers
and Labourers. This is obviously a result of the different industries and employment
opportunities available in different parts of the state.
Figure 18: Distribution of Occupations, Employed Persons by Area Adelaide
SD, Outside of Adelaide, South Australia, Australia, 2011
Source: ABS Census Data 2011
There has been some change in the composition of occupations amongst the
employed population across South Australia in the past five years, and different
trends in growth or decline of occupations in the greater Adelaide and non-metro
areas (see Figure 19). Although a much higher proportion of employed persons were
working as labourers and managers in non-metro areas of South Australia compared
to the Adelaide region, growth of these occupations has been slower in non-metro
areas over the past five years. Machinery Operators and Drivers, Clerical and Admin,
Sales and Technician and Trades occupations have all seen greater growth in nonmetro areas of the state. Overall, the Community and Personal Services occupation
65
has seen the biggest growth over the past five years in South Australia, reflecting an
increased demand for services due in part to an ageing population.
Figure 19: Average Annual Growth Rate of Occupations by Area, 2006-2011
Source: ABS Census Data 2006, 2011
Table 32 shows the LGAs with the largest net growth and decline of employed
persons from 2006-2011 and the percent change in employed population for this
period. Growth in the number of employed persons is due to more people entering
the workforce and finding employment opportunities than leaving, so growth is most
pronounced in areas experiencing overall growth of the working age population. All
LGAs experiencing large net growth in employed persons also had high rates of
growth of the employed population for the past ten years with the exception of
Onkaparinga and Charles Sturt, areas that had below average growth of the
employed population from 2001-2006. The LGAs listed at the bottom of Table 32 are
areas that experienced the largest net decrease in the employed population from
2006-2011. Many of these LGAs are ageing areas but there are also a number of
areas in the wheat-sheep belt and Riverland irrigation areas and pastoral areas
which have experienced significant drought impacts.
66
Table 32: LGAs with the Largest Net Increase and Largest Net Decrease in
Employed Persons from 2006-2011 and Average Annual Growth of Employed
Population
Change
2001-2006
% Change
2001-2006
Change
2006-2011
% Change
2006-2011
Port Adelaide Enfield
5291
2.7
6755
3.0
Onkaparinga
4849
1.5
5164
1.4
Salisbury
5790
2.4
4417
1.6
Playford
3422
2.9
4257
3.1
Charles Sturt
2323
1.1
4114
1.8
Marion
3468
2.0
3194
1.7
West Torrens
1784
1.6
2621
2.1
Mount Barker
2087
3.7
2099
3.1
Alexandrina
1009
2.7
1670
3.9
Adelaide
1983
4.6
1411
2.7
Berri and Barmera
-213
-0.9
-477
-2.1
Loxton Waikerie
-60
-0.2
-423
-1.6
Cleve
389
7.3
-400
-7.1
Tea Tree Gully
845
0.4
-238
-0.1
Renmark Paringa
-21
-0.1
-208
-1.0
Franklin Harbour
204
6.5
-176
-5.2
30
0.2
-173
-1.0
The Coorong
-13
-0.1
-141
-1.1
Wattle Range
-113
-0.4
-97
-0.4
-70
-1.6
-92
-2.3
50388
1.6
48308
1.4
Tatiara
Anangu Pitjantjatjara
TOTAL SOUTH AUSTRALIA
Source: ABS Census Data 2001, 2006, 2011
Table 33 shows the LGAs experiencing the largest net increase in number of people
not in the labour force from 2006-2011. ‘Not in the labour force’ includes people who
are retired, children and anyone not looking for work. Many of the areas that saw
growth in ‘not in labour force’ populations also experienced high net growth in the
employed population in the same time period (Salisbury, Onkaparinga, Playford, Port
67
Adelaide Enfield and Adelaide), reflecting the fact these are high population growth
areas generally and have a large total population size.
The areas represented in Table 33 represent a mix of areas with an older population,
for example Victor Harbor and Alexandrina, areas with high natural increase (i.e. a
younger population); Salisbury, Onkaparinga, Playford, Port Adelaide Enfield and
Tea Tree Gully. There has been an increased growth in the not in the labour force
population from 2006-2011 compared to 2001-2006, which relates to increased
population ageing and the higher fertility rate in the more recent period.
Table 33: LGAs with the Largest Net Increase Not in Labour Force Persons
from 2006-2011 and Average Annual Growth of Not in Labour Force Population
Change
2001-2006
Salisbury
% Change
2001-2006
Change
2006-2011
% Change
2006-2011
171
0.1
3969
2.3
Onkaparinga
-468
-0.2
2794
1.4
Playford
-894
-0.8
2552
2.3
-2219
-1.3
1791
1.0
Adelaide
950
3.4
1728
5.1
Alexandrina
828
2.6
1418
3.9
Tea Tree Gully
-836
-0.7
991
0.8
Murray Bridge
337
1.3
879
3.0
Mount Gambier
116
0.4
784
2.5
Victor Harbor
322
1.3
699
2.6
-11359
-0.5
25740
1.2
Port Adelaide Enfield
TOTAL SOUTH AUSTRALIA
Source: ABS Census Data 2001, 2006, 2011
Changes to the rate of employment, types of employment and industries of
employment will change in relation to demographic profile, population mobility
patterns and economic trends of the State. Increasing age and not in labour force
population will have social and economic impacts at the State and LGA levels.
68
7. Vulnerable Populations
This chapter explores some of the vulnerable population sub-groups in South
Australia. The broad ‘vulnerable populations’ covered include Indigenous persons,
aged, migrants, renters and those earning a low income. Many of the vulnerable
populations explored in this chapter have multiple ‘disadvantages’, for example low
income populations who are renting, or overseas born populations who do not speak
English well. These vulnerable populations usually require additional services and
support; therefore it is important to understand where different types of vulnerable
populations are living and what their needs may be.
7.1 Indigenous Populations
The Indigenous population of South Australia is of particular significance as the
original occupants of the State and one of the most disadvantaged subgroups.
Although the divide between the wellbeing of Indigenous and non-Indigenous
peoples has been recognised for decades, there has been little change. Some key
demographic, economic and social characteristics of the Indigenous and total
populations of South Australia at the 2011 population census are shown in Table 34.
In almost all respects there is a stark contrast with the disadvantage of the
Indigenous population in evidence. Of particular concern are the differences in life
expectancy. However, in income, education, health and housing the Indigenous
population are significantly worse off on average than the total population.
Analysing the dynamics of growth of the Indigenous population is difficult because
the question in the population census requires people to self identify as Indigenous or
non-Indigenous. The readiness of people to self identify has varied considerably over
the years, and with each enumeration the ABS gets better at locating and including
the Indigenous population; this is one of the reasons the growth rate of the
Indigenous population was much higher than that of the total South Australia
population from 2006-2011.
It is striking in Table 34 that half of the Aboriginal population in South Australia lived
outside of the Adelaide Metropolitan Area compared with 26.6 percent of the total
population. However, this concentration in non-metropolitan areas is reducing over
time. In 1981 only a third of the Aboriginal population lived in the Adelaide
metropolitan region.
69
Table 34: South Australia: Indigenous and Total South Australia Population
Selected Characteristics, 2011
Characteristic
Number
Indigenous
Population
South Australia
30,430
1,596,572
Growth Rate 2006-11
3.55
1.06
5.5
7.4
2.611
1.847
34.7
18.0
4.1
16.1
% Unemployed
18.0
5.7
% With Post School Education (15+)
22.7
42.0
% Living Outside Adelaide
50.0
26.6
% of National Population
Total Fertility Rate
% Age Less Than 15
% Aged 65+
Life Expectancy at Birth
In Australia 200507
In 2010
Males
67.2
79.4
Females
72.9
83.8
Source: ABS 2006 and 2011 Censuses; ABS, Births Australia and Deaths Australia
The LGAs with the largest number of persons identifying themselves as Indigenous
at the 2011 Census are shown in Table 35. Some of the LGAs located within the
Greater Adelaide Area make this list based on sheer population size; although Port
Adelaide Enfield and Playford LGAs do also have an above average proportion of the
total population in the area nominated as Indigenous.
Table 35: LGAs with the Largest Total Number Indigenous Population, 2011
Aboriginal
Torres
Strait
Islander
Total
Indigenous
% Total
Indigenous
Port Adelaide Enfield
2569
99
2668
2.4
Salisbury
2311
86
2397
1.9
Port Augusta
2315
16
2331
16.7
Playford
2232
85
2317
2.9
Anangu Pitjantjatjara
2085
0
2085
85.5
Onkaparinga
1941
106
2047
1.3
70
Charles Sturt
1252
45
1297
1.2
Murray Bridge
951
12
963
4.9
Whyalla
873
22
895
4.1
Ceduna
857
4
861
24.7
28832
1038
29870
1.9
Total South Australia
Source: ABS 2011 Census data
The regional centres of Port Augusta, Murray Bridge and Whyalla are also
represented as areas with large Indigenous populations. Over 85 percent of the
population, or 2,085 people, living in Anangu Pitjantjatjara Yankunytjatjara (APY
Lands) area are Indigenous. Other areas with a high proportion of the total population
Indigenous but lower total numbers of people are Maralinga Tjarutja (84 percent/61
persons Indigenous), Coober Pedy, Flinders Ranges, The Coorong, Port Lincoln and
unincorporated areas of South Australia.
Given the high disadvantage among the Indigenous population it is important to
recognise these areas with substantial Indigenous populations and consider service
needs accordingly.
7.2 Age, Disability and Health
The Ageing and its Effects chapter of this report has described areas where the older
population is growing at a faster rate than the younger population and areas with a
large proportion of the overall population in older age groups. This provides some
indication of potential service needs in the future by area, however it is also important
to consider additional vulnerabilities for older populations such as disability, health,
low income and housing type as this can tell us more information to target potential
service demands.
The Ageing and its Effects chapter provided an overview of the extent of demand for
care and assistance provision for older populations in South Australia, and showed
the direct relationship between age and likelihood of having a need for assistance.
The number of people who require assistance with a core activity, for all ages, has
increased in the past five years; from 73,400 (4.8 percent of the total South Australia
population) in 2006 to 87,116 (5.5 percent of the total population) in 2011. This
mainly reflects the impact of population ageing in the state. Table 36 shows the LGAs
71
with the largest total number of people (of all ages) who required assistance with
core activities in 2011. Clearly the LGAs shown here are all in the Greater Adelaide
area and reflect the large total population size relative to other areas; it is important
to consider the sheer number of people who require assistance. Although relative to
the state average the proportion of the LGA population who require assistance in
Mitcham, Tea Tree Gully and Onkaparinga is below the state average, the net
number of people is large (8,316 people in Onkaparinga). LGAs with the largest
proportion of the population requiring assistance with core activities are all LGAs that
also have a high proportion of the population aged 65+ years.
Table 36: Top 10 LGAs with Greatest Number of People Who Require
Assistance, 2011
Number of people with
need for assistance with
core activities
% need for assistance
Onkaparinga
8316
5.2
Salisbury
7435
5.8
Port Adelaide Enfield
7357
6.5
Charles Sturt
6628
6.3
Playford
5257
6.6
Marion
4605
5.5
Tea Tree Gully
4099
4.3
West Torrens
3115
5.7
Campbelltown
2705
5.6
Mitcham
2579
4.1
87116
5.5
Total South Australia
Source: ABS 2011 Census data
LGAs that are projected to see substantial growth in the older population should also
expect to see more people who require care, thus increased demand for care
services. There is speculation in the literature that the incidence of chronic illness
and disability is increasing among older people as a result of ‘saving’ so many older
people who otherwise would have died thus increasing the overall incidence of
72
disability and chronic disease. This can be demonstrated by comparing a number of
health indicators for the baby boomer generation (born 1946-65) and comparing
them with the pre-war generation (born 1927-36) when they were the same age as
current baby boomers. This comparison shows that baby boomers are less healthy
than the pre-war generation and are more likely to suffer from diabetes, asthma,
hearing loss, arthritis, migraine and back problems. Risk factors include higher levels
of obesity, greater alcohol risk and higher cholesterol; although the baby boomer
generation had a comparative lower incidence of smoking. Overall, the proportion of
baby boomers with three or more chronic conditions is fourfold greater than for the
pre-war generation. Thus the demand on health services for older people, in LGAs
with a large and growing number of older people, is likely to be substantial.
7.3 Low Income Populations and Renters
Populations at the young and old ends of the age spectrum may also be more
vulnerable because people in these age groups are the most likely to be on a low
income. Nearly one-third of all South Australians aged 15-24 and 29 percent of those
aged 65+ have an individual weekly income of $300 or less (see Table 37). This
amount is less than half the full-time minimum wage ($606/week in 2012) and less
than the senior’s pension for a single person ($366/week in 2012). Individual weekly
income is a very simple indicator of financial stress; these figures include individuals
who may have high household incomes (but a low individual income), substantial
savings, limited financial obligations etc. and therefore are not experiencing financial
stress, however it does give a relative comparison of individual income across age
groups.
Table 37: Income by Age, South Australia 2011*
n earn <$300
% <$300/week
15-24
25-44
45-64
65+
68 711
50 876
62 682
73 475
32.6
12.1
14.8
29.0
*Place of enumeration data, Source: ABS 2011 Census data
Table 38 shows the LGAs with the highest proportion of the total population earning a
low income. The Indigenous APY Lands are the LGA with the highest proportion of
persons on a low income in the state of South Australia, highlighting the
disadvantage of Indigenous populations. Many of the other areas represented are
LGAs with high numbers of older people. All LGAs are located outside of Adelaide
capital city area.
73
Table 38: LGAs with the High Proportion of People Earning a Low Income*,
2011
n low income
residents
(<$300/week)
% Total residents low
income
Anangu Pitjantjatjara
878
36.0
Peterborough
431
24.9
Yorke Peninsula
2450
22.2
Copper Coast
2780
21.5
187
21.4
Victor Harbor
2846
20.6
Barunga West
503
20.5
Yankalilla
900
20.5
Mount Remarkable
587
20.4
3505
20.2
257931
16.2
Orroroo/Carrieton
Port Pirie City and Dists
Total South Australia
*Place of enumeration data, Source: ABS 2011 Census data
Renters, particularly those in the private rental market have also been identified as a
vulnerable population group. Although not all renters are disadvantaged, as a
generalisation they have less autonomy when it comes to making decisions related to
their household choices and location and have a continuous expense related to
rental housing. It was estimated at the start of 2012 that renters spend approximately
26.3 percent of their family income on rent (Shelter SA, in Schlesinger 2012). It has
also been noted that accessing affordable rental housing for low income households
and people living with disadvantage is extremely difficult (Anglicare SA, 2012). The
Changing Households and Families chapter of this report discussed the lack of
affordable housing in South Australia which has thereby lead to a decreased
proportion of persons owning their homes outright. It was also shown that median
income has increased at a slower rate over the past ten years than median rental
costs, putting more financial stress on renters.
The South Australian LGAs with the highest proportion of renters are shown below in
Table 39. Some 24 percent of South Australia’s total population rent their housing.
Rental rates are higher in some areas for a number of reasons; because of location
of the area, dwelling types available and/or the disposable incomes residents in the
74
area have available, which may force people to rent rather than purchase a home.
The APY Lands LGA has the highest proportion of renters of all South Australia’s
LGAs with 72 percent of all persons in the LGA renters, although this reflects the high
availability of Aboriginal Public Housing available in many of the APY Lands
communities. Roxby Downs also has a high proportion of renters due to the nature of
fly-in-fly-out workforce in the mining industry. Other locations, such as Adelaide and
Norwood Payneham St Peters LGAs, have a high proportion of renters because they
are near the city centre and popular locations for students and young professionals.
Ceduna and Whyalla are the only other LGAs outside of Adelaide capital city area
with high proportions of renters.
Table 39: LGAs with the Highest Proportion ‘Rent’ Tenure Type, 2011
Highest % renters
LGA
n Rent
% Rent
Anangu Pitjantjatjara
1739
71.9
Roxby Downs
2405
41.3
Adelaide
9664
36.1
Ceduna
1319
34.8
Port Adelaide Enfield
37256
33.1
Playford
26033
33.1
Whyalla
7154
32.2
Port Lincoln
4462
32.0
West Torrens
17394
31.7
Norwood Payneham St Peters
10987
31.6
385250
24.2
Total South Australia
Note: Includes only LGAs with 100+ people renting
*Place of enumeration data
Source: ABS 2011 Census data
There is an inverse relationship between tenure type ‘renting’ and age; one-third of
South Australia’s population aged 15-24 are renting compared to just 12 percent of
the population aged 65+, see Table 40. Renters in the youngest and oldest age
groups are those most likely to be on a low income; 31 percent of renters aged 15-24
are earning less than $300/week and 30 percent of the population aged 65+ who are
renting are on a low income.
75
Table 40: Renters, and Low-Income Renters, by Age 2011
15-24
25-44
45-64
65+
% who rent (total SA pop)
33.2
31.4
16.7
12.2
% renters who are low income
31.3
15.4
21.6
30.1
21 928
20 305
15 232
9 326
n low income (<$300/week) renters
Place of enumeration data
Source: ABS 2011 Census data
Areas with the largest number of low income renters, (i.e. populations that have
multiple disadvantages) are shown in Table 41. The regional centres of Port Pirie,
Whyalla and Mount Gambier also have high proportions of low income renters. In fact
all LGAs in Table 41, except Playford and Port Adelaide Enfield are located outside
of the Greater Adelaide Area, pointing to more disadvantaged and vulnerable
regional and rural populations.
Table 41: LGAs with Highest Proportion of Renters on a Low Income*, 2011
LGA
Anangu Pitjantjatjara
n
%
690
39.7
Port Pirie City and Dists
1001
23.1
Whyalla
1568
21.9
Mount Gambier
1547
20.7
Playford (C)
5266
20.2
Copper Coast
593
20.1
Loxton Waikerie
480
19.9
Wattle Range
385
19.7
7309
19.6
362
19.6
66792
17.3
Port Adelaide Enfield
Yorke Peninsula
Total South Australia
*Low income defined here as individual weekly income of <$300
Place of enumeration data
Source: ABS 2011 Census data
7.4 International Migrants
Migrants and recent international arrivals are also potentially vulnerable population
sub-groups in South Australia. These populations are by their nature ‘different’ to the
76
broader population and may require language, cultural, religious or other support
services for their well-being. Some essential services, such as language and housing
support, relate strongly to the ability of people to be well integrated in society and
engage in areas such as education and employment. Other required support needs
may be more social or community orientated in order to ensure that new migrants
settle into community life more easily.
Australia has a strong focus on attracting skilled, temporary migrants and as such
overall a smaller proportion of recent arrivals have low incomes than the total South
Australia population, see Table 42. However when looking at different birthplace
countries of recent arrivals, it is clear the propensity to have a low income varies
substantially across groups. New arrival migrants from Afghanistan, China, Malaysia
and Vietnam have higher rates of being on a low income compared to other recent
arrivals and South Australia’s population as a whole. Recent arrivals from
Afghanistan are most often refugee/humanitarian migrants who require additional
support services. A substantial number of international students come from China,
Malaysia and Vietnam which helps to explain the low income of these groups. It is
therefore important to understand within council areas which recent arrival groups
are present as they will have different circumstances and different needs.
Table 42: Top 10 Countries of Recent Arrivals: Proportion with a Low Income
% Low income
(<$300/week)
n low
income
Afghanistan
42.4
861
China (excludes SARs and Taiwan)
15.6
1544
9.2
948
India
11.3
1499
Korea, Republic of (South)
10.1
192
Malaysia
21.8
620
7.5
168
10.2
369
9.9
242
Vietnam
24.6
422
Total Recent Arrivals
13.7
6865
England
New Zealand
Philippines
South Africa
77
Total South Australia
16.2
257931
Source: ABS 2011 Census data
Note: Recent arrivals is defined as migrants arriving in Australia from 2006-2011
Table 43 shows which countries of birth are most highly represented on the list of
overseas born on a low income. It is clear all of the birthplace groups shown here
have substantially higher rates of earning a low income compared to the Australia
born population in South Australia.
Table 43: Country of Birth Highest Proportion with a Low Income*, South
Australia 2011
n income
<$300/week
% COB
<$300/week
Bhutan
466
66.2
Burundi
225
46.0
Burma (Republic of the Union of Myanmar)
311
43.0
Somalia
106
41.7
Greece
3879
39.8
215
39.5
1291
39.3
Iraq
513
38.9
Italy
7324
35.4
136
34.9
178038
15.2
Congo, Democratic Republic of
Afghanistan
South Sudan
Australia born
Source: ABS 2011 Census data
*Includes only countries with 100+ people on a low income
In South Australia a mix of countries are represented in this list, including birthplace
groups who have mainly entered Australia on refugee/humanitarian visas
(Afghanistan, Burma, Burundi, Somalia, Congo, Iraq, Sudan) and longer term, older
Greek and Italian migrants. Support services for these low income groups will thus
vary accordingly and it is important to understand which areas of the state are home
to these different types of migrants. The countries of birth of the overseas born
population with the highest proportions of unemployed persons are shown in Table
44. For some migrant groups, the rate of unemployment is substantially higher than
the Australia born average of 2.8 percent in South Australia. It is clear migrants from
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humanitarian backgrounds (Sudan, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Iran) and selected
Asian countries has high rates of unemployment.
Table 44: Country of Birth of Migrants with Highest Proportion Unemployed*
(looking for work), South Australia 2011
n unemployed
% unemployed
Sudan
126
8.9
Afghanistan
290
8.8
Bangladesh
104
8.1
1213
7.6
Iran
177
6.3
Cambodia
157
5.6
Indonesia
109
5.6
Hong Kong (SAR of China)
151
5.5
Sri Lanka
145
5.4
Thailand
118
5.3
32596
2.8
China (excludes SARs and Taiwan)
Australia born
Source: ABS 2011 Census data
*Includes only countries with 100+ people unemployed
All of the countries represented in Table 44 also have a native language that is
different than English, highlighting the link between English language ability and
socio-economic wellbeing. One of the major support services required by some
vulnerable migrant groups are language services, as English language skills are
required to engage in even basic Australian community life. The report chapter on
International Migration and its Effects lists the top ten metro and non-metro LGAs
with the highest proportion of people who speak a language other than English. It is
essential that adequate language support services are available in these areas.
This chapter has briefly covered a broad range of demographic groups who
represent vulnerable populations within local communities. While the needs of each
79
group vary considerably many of the services and planning needs fall on local
government. This emphasises the need for local governments to understand the
changing diversity and changing needs for services within their communities.
80
8. The Implications for Council and Conclusion
8.1 Introduction
The most important resource of any LGA is its residents and knowing about their
changing size, composition and distribution. How or why they are changing is absolutely
fundamental to good governance at the local level. This is important to Councils
because:
a) Many population changes can be anticipated, so knowing about them facilitates
the timely, equitable and efficient provision of services.
b) There is scope for Councils to identify population developments which are seen
as being against the interests of the community and initiate steps to ameliorate or
change them.
It is important not only to profile an LGA population at any point in time but to also identify
trends, both current and emerging in the population as a basis for anticipating change.
Population changes at a local government level can vary significant from those at
national or state levels so that relative levels of demand and need for particular services
can vary. Moreover, while population change at national and state levels is always slow
and incremental, change can be more volatile at a local level. In considering implications
of population change for local governments it is useful to consider these changes under
three headings – growth/decline, composition and spatial distribution.
8.2 Population Growth/Decline
The main drivers of differences in the growth rates of LGA’s are:

The extent to which people move in from other parts of Australia and to which they
leave for other parts of Australia.

The extent to which new immigrants to Australia settle in particular LGAs.
Too often we focus only on net migration rather than in and out migration flows. The
compositions of the inflows and outflows are often very different and a small overall net
migration may lead to a major change of numbers in a particular sub group in the
population. It is important to focus not just on overall growth rates but the growth/decline
rates of key sub groups in the LGA population, e.g. dependent children, young adults, the
working age, the older population, CALD groups or people on a low income. It is
important to disaggregate growth/decline by these population sub-groups because rates
can vary greatly between different groups.
81
It is also important to recognise that local growth of the population will be significantly
influenced by national and state immigration policies and programmes. Local government
needs to be aware of these policies and trends to anticipate settlement of new groups in
their area. Councils also need to be aware of the potential to use different elements of
the immigration programme to meet local labour needs and oversee skill or labour
constraints. One of the most interesting developments in international migration in
Australia in the last decade is the scope for local government to be involved in
immigration.
For most LGAs their fastest growing group will be the population aged 60-74 over the
next 10 years, as the baby boomers reach older age. Along with this there will be
declines or stability in the number of young families. It is important to disaggregate
growth rates of areas to different age groups because different age groups grow and
decline at different rates to the total population. This is of fundamental importance since
demand for most goods and services vary considerably between different age groups.
There is a need to look not only at Australian census for population figures. For many
LGAs, especially in non-metropolitan areas there are substantial seasonal variations in
population size that is not captured in the census data. Allocation of resources needs to
be amended to take account of this. For example, high amenity coastal and Murray River
LGAs with large numbers of absentee rate payers with holiday homes may receive a
significant influx of retiree baby boomers seeking a tree change or sea change lifestyle
over the next two decades.
The key emerging trends to influence population growth are:

The level of international migration to South Australia.

The extent to which efforts to increase population density in built up areas are
successful.

Patterns of mobility within the baby boomer cohort as they retire, not entirely
understood at this stage. What will baby boomers do when they leave the
workforce – age-in-place, downsize within their local community or move to high
amenity sea change or tree change areas?

The Mining Boom, which will not only influence mining areas but also other areas
as a result of a fly-in-fly out work culture.

Food Security Issues, with an increased emphasis on agriculture and agriculture
processing.
82

Climate Change and environment factors influencing where (and how) people live
and work.
Areas identified as having future growth are:

Within Adelaide – both peripheral suburbs and some inner suburbs as policies of
urban infill, gentrification, TODs, etc increase in importance.

Outside Adelaide – peri-urban areas around Adelaide, coastal, resort-retirement
communities, mining area and some regional cities.
While areas that are predicted to be more stable in terms of growth are:

Middle suburbs of Adelaide.

Agriculture based and pastoral based areas.
8.3 Population Composition
Ageing
Over the next quarter century the number of South Australians aged 65 years and over
will double, as will their ratio to the working age population. South Australian LGAs will
differ largely in the level and timing of growth of the older population, and this is a
particular issue in non-metropolitan areas where the proportion of the community aged
65+ years is greater. This can be seen as both a challenge and an opportunity for local
communities.
There is a need to recognise and acknowledge that the baby boomers are still active.
They can be leaders of change and drivers of social capital within their local
communities, for example they could rejuvenate coastal towns and they may (with the
right incentives) lead in-migration back to inner middle to coastal suburbs. However,
there is a need to establish the residential and retirement intentions of the baby boomers;
are they going to age-in-place, stay in their local communities but downsize their housing
or move upon retirement? What is clear is that baby boomers will behave differently to
the previous generation of Australians in retirement and that this offers great potential for
localised social and community engagement, and valuable resources for communities
such as increased volunteering, civic engagement and discretional consumption in their
chosen community.
Thus, there is a need to see ageing as an opportunity for councils not just an increased
pressure on health and aged care services. There is potential for relocating baby
boomers within the LGA they currently reside in by offering housing opportunities that are
83
appealing to this cohort, and there is potential for other LGAs to consider ways of
attracting this cohort to their communities.
Housing and Households
Understanding the family and household formation process is crucial for policymakers,
service providers and councils. South Australia’s households are also becoming more
diverse and complex in their structure and functioning. Not only has there been a shift in
the number of households, but also a change in the pattern of living arrangements. More
than a half of households in South Australia have only one or two residents, with single
person households increasing by more than 50 percent over the 1991-2011 period and
couples without children by a third; but importantly this varies greatly between LGAs.
With an increasing mismatch between household size on the one hand and housing
stock on the other there is a need for innovative approaches to overcome housing
affordability issues and need. With more than a quarter of baby boomers moving into
older age as singles there is a potential for releasing family housing stock by providing
real opportunities for downsizing to baby boomers.
Changing patterns of ethnicity
Net overseas migration has increased significantly in the last decade and South Australia
currently settles comparatively high proportions of both skilled and humanitarian visa
holders. For South Australia the composition of immigrants today is much more diverse
than it ever has been, and in line with the increasing diversity in new migrant groups
some metropolitan and non-metropolitan LGAs are undergoing dramatic shifts in the
ethnic composition of their communities.
In OECD countries new overseas immigrants are the major source of growth for nonmetropolitan communities and following this trend South Australia has seen
unprecedented settling of CALD migrants in non-metropolitan areas. Multiculturalism in a
non-metropolitan setting raises new opportunities for LGAs but also has its challenges.
There is a need to establish a better link between federal and state immigration
institutions and local government to support this new changing face of rural and regional
South Australia.
South Australia’s long-term post-war history as a migrant destination means that more
than a quarter of Australians aged 65+ was born in a non-English speaking nation. They
84
are concentrated in particular LGAs as they enter old age and they raise a number of
challenges in providing aged care services.
Socio-economic Differences
Social inclusion issues are most striking at community levels because they affect the day
to day lives of people. On the other hand it is at the local level that so much can be done
to achieve greater inclusion, engagement and participation from excluded groups.
There is strong evidence of the gap between the upper and lower ends of the income
distribution are widening creating significant challenges for some communities. The
identification of groups vulnerable to exclusion, such as people who are poor, homeless
or at risk of homelessness, disabled, Aboriginal, non-English speakers, aged and so forth
in local areas is fundamental to the national social inclusion agenda. For example: it is
clear migrants from humanitarian backgrounds (Sudan, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Iran)
have rates of unemployment that are well above the Australia born average. People from
these backgrounds also have a native language that is different than English, highlighting
the link between English language ability and socio-economic wellbeing.
The potential for information/communication technologies to be used to reduce the
isolation of excluded groups is enormous and local government is critical in this.
Furthering our understanding of the extent to which different groups have the capacity to
use this technology to access services and breakdown isolation is important.
8.4 Population Distribution
The basic structure of the State’s population distribution is unlikely to change massively
but there are a number of emerging processes which could lead to some modifications.
One clearly important issue relates to the distribution of population within the Greater
Adelaide Area. There is widespread agreement that there is a need to increase the
density of population in Adelaide (and other major cities in Australia) to achieve more
efficiency, equitable and sustainable outcomes. This can best be achieved through a
greater understanding of the populations in local areas. A few examples:

While we know that many older people wish to remain in the area they are living in
now in fact many are not necessarily tied to the home they are currently occupying.
Hence if downsizing locally were a possibility we may get a better match between
household types and the type of housing they are occupying.
85

There is an increasingly diverse range of attitudes about the type of housing which
different subgroups prefer. It is wrong to assume a total preference for detached
housing.

In all OECD countries there is an increasing phenomenon of immigrants settling in
non-metropolitan areas to an unprecedented extent.

Another issue relates to the potential for rapid growth in the populations of many
non-metropolitan coastal communities. The impending retirement of Australian baby
boomers (who make up 27 percent of the national population) raises a number of
issues. The Department of Treasury’s Intergenerational Reports have indicated
several of the challenges that ageing of the population will present for the national
economy. One issue which has been given little consideration, however, is where
will baby boomers live during their retirement? Historically, older Australians have
been the least mobile group in the population with ageing in place being dominant,
as older people have mostly remained in the family home during retirement. There
are some indications, however, that in the pre-retirement and early post-retirement
stages of the life cycle, baby boomers will move house more frequently than did
earlier generations. Moreover, there are some indications that many of these movers
will shift to a seaside non-metropolitan location.

Food security is an issue of increasing significance and the Secretary of the
Treasury is predicting a significant increase in Australia’s agricultural workforce.
There are a number of developments which indicate that some regional areas may
experience different growth patterns than the past. Firstly, environment has been a major
influence shaping Australia’s settlement system since initial European settlement but
climate change will add a new dimension to this with liveability and economic potential of
some areas being considerably modified. Secondly, the 21st century economic context is
totally different to that which prevailed a half century ago when manufacturing was a key
driver of economic and employment growth in Australia. Mining, tourism and other
sectors which have a strong non-metropolitan presence have become increasingly
important. Thirdly, earlier initiatives often attempted to attract people ‘artificially’ to areas
by creating job opportunities where there was no existing economic potential. Today, in
contrast, there is evidence that some specific non-metropolitan areas have the resources
base necessary, but not sufficient to support sustainable economic growth. A report by
the Grattan Institute (Daley and Lancy, 2011) has demonstrated conclusively that any
attempt artificially to stimulate the economies of regions or centres, where there is no
potential for developing self-sustaining growth, is doomed to failure. Yet there would
86
seem to be emerging developments which would mean that some regional areas do
have the potential for such sustainable growth.
While many economists argue that economies of scale dictate that future population
growth will occur in Australia’s large cities, for a number of reasons it is opportune to
examine whether or not the contemporary settlement system is the most appropriate one
to achieve future goals. The economic and environmental imperatives of the next four
decades will present a very different set of challenges and opportunities to those that
prevailed in the three decades following World War II, when decentralisation and regional
development policies were last seriously put forward. Is the settlement structure in part
an artefact of earlier political economies and not optimal given climate and other potential
changes in the economy? Where people live is important to their wellbeing. Under any
realistic scenario of the next four decades, most Australians will continue to live in major
urban areas, especially the capital cities.
8.5 Conclusion
South Australia’s population is likely to experience substantial changes over the next four
decades. Issues such as the large scale retirement of baby boomers from the workforce,
the influx of permanent and temporary immigrants, the impact of the mining boom, the
increasing disparity between the upper and lower ends of the income distribution, climate
and other environmental changes will ensure that the State’s population will change not
only in size, but also in composition and spatial distribution. Understanding the extent
and nature of change in the size, composition and distribution of the South Australian
population is an important fundamental basic need for the formulation of appropriate and
effective policies for the development of the State and also for the delivery of services to
South Australians.
87
Appendix One: Projected Population and Average
Annual Growth Rates, 2011-2021
Projected Total Population
Projected
Average Annual
Growth Rates
LGA name
2011
2021
Change
2011-2021
2011
2021
Playford
Light
Roxby Downs
Adelaide
Gawler
Mount Barker
Yankalilla
Victor Harbor
Alexandrina
Barossa
Mallala
Copper Coast
Murray Bridge
Onkaparinga
Port Adel. Enfield
Marion
Charles Sturt
Grant
West Torrens
Lower Eyre Peninsula
Kangaroo Island
Mount Gambier
Port Augusta
Prospect
Tea Tree Gully
Walkerville
Salisbury
Campbelltown
Holdfast Bay
Clare and Gilbert Valleys
Port Lincoln
Unley
Naracoorte and Lucindale
Barunga West
Anangu Pitjantjatjara
Mitcham
Wakefield
Tumby Bay
Kingston
Whyalla
Adelaide Hills
Norw. P'ham St Ptrs
Yorke Peninsula
Ceduna
82,027
14,408
5,345
20,720
21,828
31,082
4,776
14,298
24,567
23,318
8,596
12,968
19,944
166,958
116,317
86,758
109,101
8,620
56,612
4,866
4,622
25,814
15,142
21,159
101,500
7,397
134,804
50,485
36,612
8,851
14,863
39,128
8,799
2,718
2,404
66,096
6,812
2,709
2,475
22,768
40,227
36,526
11,921
3,834
121,777
20,456
7,525
27,997
29,188
39,642
6,033
17,673
29,412
26,955
9,950
14,914
22,982
189,832
128,589
95,930
120,658
9,462
62,190
5,299
5,030
27,999
16,313
22,608
108,442
7,916
142,704
53,510
38,953
9,339
15,738
41,467
9,330
2,830
2,495
68,249
6,995
2,791
2,542
23,351
41,293
37,418
12,143
3,927
39,750
6,048
2,180
7,278
7,360
8,560
1,257
3,375
4,845
3,637
1,354
1,946
3,038
22,874
12,272
9,172
11,557
842
5,578
433
408
2,185
1,171
1,449
6,942
519
7,900
3,025
2,341
488
875
2,339
531
112
91
2,153
183
82
67
583
1,066
892
222
93
2.8
2.5
5.2
3.5
2.5
2.5
2.2
2.9
2.9
1.8
1.0
2.0
1.7
1.6
1.8
1.3
0.9
1.2
0.9
1.2
0.7
1.0
1.0
1.0
0.4
0.4
2.0
1.1
1.1
0.9
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.7
0.5
0.4
4.8
4.2
4.1
3.5
3.4
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.0
1.6
1.6
1.5
1.5
1.4
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.0
1.0
0.9
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
88
Projected Total Population
Projected
Average Annual
Growth Rates
LGA name
2011
2021
Change
2011-2021
2011
2021
Robe
Wattle Range
Franklin Harbour
Port Pirie C Dists
Renmark Paringa
Burnside
Goyder
Elliston
Peterborough
Mid Murray
Berri & Barmera
Maralinga Tjarutja
Cleve
Streaky Bay
Karoonda East Murray
The Coorong
Kimba
Loxton Waikerie
Tatiara
Coober Pedy
Mount Remarkable
Flinders Ranges
Southern Mallee
Northern Areas
Orroroo/Carrieton
SOUTH AUSTRALIA
Greater Adelaide
Rest of State
1,431
12,608
1,337
18,070
9,938
44,609
4,408
1,189
1,981
8,350
11,415
112
1,983
2,105
1,201
5,890
1,162
11,957
7,101
1,999
2,925
1,760
2,166
4,722
948
1663477
1284354
379123
1,458
12,854
1,364
18,371
10,137
44,960
4,440
1,187
1,972
8,367
11,412
112
1,962
2,079
1,183
5,813
1,141
11,699
6,920
1,939
2,836
1,677
2,048
4,451
888
1852372
1443779
408593
27
246
27
301
199
351
32
-2
-9
17
-3
0
-21
-26
-18
-77
-21
-258
-181
-60
-89
-83
-118
-271
-60
188895
159425
29470
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.4
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
-0.1
-0.1
0.0
-0.2
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.3
-0.5
-0.4
-0.5
1.3
1.4
1.0
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.2
-0.2
-0.3
-0.3
-0.3
-0.5
-0.5
-0.6
-0.6
1.1
1.2
0.8
89
Appendix Two: Absolute Change of Overseas Born in
South Australian LGAs 2006-2011
Year
LGA
Absolute change
% Change
2006
2011
2006-2011
2006-2011
Yankalilla
1124
1002
-122
-10.9
Adelaide Hills
8310
8153
-157
-1.9
Alexandrina
4870
4922
52
1.1
Kangaroo Island
778
826
48
6.2
Mount Barker
4870
5234
364
7.5
Victor Harbor
2980
3567
587
19.7
Tea Tree Gully
25946
25928
-18
-0.1
Mitcham
15330
15974
644
4.2
Playford
20420
21385
965
4.7
Charles Sturt
31798
33544
1746
5.5
Burnside
12472
13307
835
6.7
Onkaparinga
38277
40982
2705
7.1
Unley
9516
10242
726
7.6
Walkerville
Norwood
Payneham
Peters
Campbelltown - SA
1991
2151
160
8.0
10901
11827
926
8.5
15964
17581
1617
10.1
Holdfast Bay
8691
9698
1007
11.6
Prospect
5487
6123
636
11.6
Marion
21426
24191
2765
12.9
Salisbury
37735
42625
4890
13.0
West Torrens
16405
18572
2167
13.2
Port Adelaide Enfield
34552
40672
6120
17.7
Adelaide
7691
9861
2170
28.2
Mallala
1688
1568
-120
-7.1
Light
2237
2314
77
3.4
Gawler
4506
4777
271
6.0
Barossa
3196
3437
241
7.5
Coober Pedy
867
648
-219
-25.3
Flinders Ranges (DC)
278
219
-59
-21.2
Anangu Pitjantjatjara
72
65
-7
-9.7
Port Augusta
2216
2364
148
6.7
Roxby Downs
684
1115
431
63.0
Robe
580
185
-395
-68.1
Wattle Range
1717
1472
-245
-14.3
Grant
932
840
-92
-9.9
Kingston
238
228
-10
-4.2
Mount Gambier
3554
3555
1
0.0
90
St
Year
LGA Continued
Absolute change
% Change
2006
2011
2006-2011
2006-2011
Tatiara
783
861
78
10.0
Naracoorte and Lucindale
964
1219
255
26.5
Berri and Barmera
1936
1824
-112
-5.8
Loxton Waikerie
1403
1341
-62
-4.4
Karoonda East Murray
134
132
-2
-1.5
Renmark Paringa
1855
1906
51
2.7
Mid Murray
1417
1483
66
4.7
The Coorong
748
849
101
13.5
Southern Mallee
212
256
44
20.8
Murray Bridge
2731
3585
854
31.3
Wudinna
116
76
-40
-34.5
Tumby Bay
303
220
-83
-27.4
Cleve
163
119
-44
-27.0
Elliston
119
91
-28
-23.5
Ceduna
520
411
-109
-21.0
Port Lincoln
2085
1893
-192
-9.2
Lower Eyre Peninsula
537
517
-20
-3.7
Whyalla
5751
5703
-48
-0.8
Streaky Bay
238
261
23
9.7
Kimba
82
93
11
13.4
Franklin Harbour
116
171
55
47.4
Maralinga Tjarutja
0
0
0
#DIV/0!
Peterborough
383
294
-89
-23.2
Barunga West
351
308
-43
-12.3
Yorke Peninsula
1624
1448
-176
-10.8
Northern Areas
549
503
-46
-8.4
Port Pirie City and Dists
2190
2079
-111
-5.1
Goyder
611
590
-21
-3.4
Copper Coast
1813
1770
-43
-2.4
Mount Remarkable
392
387
-5
-1.3
Clare and Gilbert Valleys
1161
1157
-4
-0.3
Wakefield
958
963
5
0.5
Orroroo/Carrieton
81
106
25
30.9
SA Unincorporated
707
943
236
33.4
SA No Usual Address
919
1067
148
16.1
Total
394251
425780
31529
8.0
91
Appendix Three: Top 10 countries of birth of new arrivals
2001-2011 in selected LGAs
Port Adelaide Enfield
Top 10 countries of birth for new
Top 10 countries of birth for new arrivals 2001-2006
arrivals 2006-2011
India
315
0
112
0
607
India
701
Afghanistan
399
China (excludes SARs and Taiwan Province)
353
China (excludes
Taiwan)
Afghanistan
Sudan
328
Vietnam
561
Viet Nam
269
Philippines
532
England
256
England
415
Philippines
163
Malaysia
251
New Zealand
118
Korea, Republic of (South)
177
Liberia
117
Bangladesh
172
Iraq
111
New Zealand
157
SARs
and
Salisbury
Top 10 countries of birth for new arrivals 2001-2006
Top 10 countries of birth for new
arrivals 2006-2011
England
264
India
Philippines
174
China (excludes SARs and Taiwan Province)
155
Viet Nam
149
Philippines
China (excludes
Taiwan)
Afghanistan
India
134
Bhutan
395
New Zealand
128
England
367
Cambodia
122
334
Sudan
91
Afghanistan
85
Vietnam
Burma (Republic of the Union of
Myanmar)
South Africa
Malaysia
64
Iran
172
103
1
642
SARs
and
575
520
182
173
Charles Sturt
Top 10 countries of birth for new arrivals 2001-2006
Top 10 countries of birth for new
arrivals 2006-2011
England
385
India
India
320
China (excludes SARs and Taiwan Province)
261
Sudan
237
England
China (excludes
Taiwan)
Philippines
Viet Nam
152
Vietnam
248
South Africa
141
New Zealand
154
Afghanistan
129
South Africa
146
New Zealand
113
Afghanistan
141
Iraq
109
Malaysia
132
92
168
7
659
SARs
and
547
265
Croatia
81
Sri Lanka
93
Marion
Top 10 countries of birth for new arrivals 2001-2006
Top 10 countries of birth for new
arrivals 2006-2011
England
720
England
China (excludes SARs and Taiwan Province)
321
India
229
China (excludes
Taiwan)
India
South Africa
200
Philippines
215
New Zealand
82
Saudi Arabia
207
Iran
73
South Africa
194
Scotland
66
Scotland
164
Malaysia
66
Iran
128
Philippines
64
New Zealand
114
Japan
49
Korea, Republic of (South)
109
118
8
SARs
and
818
696
Onkaparinga
Top 10 countries of birth for new arrivals 2001-2006
Top 10 countries of birth for new
arrivals 2006-2011
England
1391
England
2770
South Africa
213
South Africa
340
New Zealand
174
256
Scotland
127
Philippines
116
Scotland
China (excludes
Taiwan)
New Zealand
United States of America
70
India
209
China (excludes SARs and Taiwan Province)
62
Philippines
193
Wales
51
United States of America
88
India
51
Wales
86
Iran
48
Germany
83
SARs
and
252
226
West Torrens
Top 10 countries of birth for new arrivals 2001-2006
Top 10 countries of birth for new
arrivals 2006-2011
China (excludes SARs and Taiwan Province)
583
India
India
279
Malaysia
182
China (excludes
Taiwan)
England
Sudan
147
Malaysia
226
England
143
Philippines
210
Philippines
105
Bangladesh
115
Afghanistan
102
Korea, Republic of (South)
106
Hong Kong (SAR of China)
91
Sri Lanka
100
Korea, Republic of (South)
69
Nepal
99
93
SARs
and
153
3
102
2
229
New Zealand
65
Afghanistan
99
Campbelltown
Top 10 countries of birth for new arrivals 2001-2006
Top 10 countries of birth for new
arrivals 2006-2011
China (excludes SARs and Taiwan Province)
243
India
England
177
China (excludes
Taiwan)
Malaysia
174
Korea, Republic of (South)
India
166
Malaysia
Korea, Republic of (South)
146
England
Sudan
120
Sri Lanka
South Africa
73
Philippines
Hong Kong (SAR of China)
56
South Africa
77
8
67
1
29
3
27
7
17
7
17
6
11
9
92
New Zealand
48
Iran
69
Japan
47
Singapore
52
SARs
and
Adelaide
Top 10 countries of birth for new arrivals 2001-2006
Top 10 countries of birth for new
arrivals 2006-2011
Malaysia
779
China (excludes SARs and Taiwan Province)
473
China (excludes
Taiwan)
Malaysia
SARs
and
132
8
678
India
262
India
324
Korea, Republic of (South)
164
Hong Kong (SAR of China)
185
Singapore
145
Korea, Republic of (South)
178
England
137
Singapore
173
Hong Kong (SAR of China)
102
Saudi Arabia
147
Japan
63
England
146
Thailand
59
Philippines
93
Indonesia
57
United States of America
78
Playford
Top 10 countries of
birth for new arrivals
2006-2011
Top 10 countries of birth for new arrivals 2001-2006
England
170
Afghanistan
220
New Zealand
44
England
199
South Africa
44
Philippines
159
Philippines
37
Burundi
137
United States of America
35
Tanzania
122
94
Cambodia
27
New Zealand
120
Croatia
23
114
China (excludes SARs and Taiwan Province)
21
Viet Nam
19
India
Congo, Democratic
Republic of
Sudan
India
19
Vietnam
77
94
83
Norwood Payneham St Peters
Top 10 countries of birth for new
Top 10 countries of birth for new arrivals 2001-2006
arrivals 2006-2011
China (excludes SARs and Taiwan Province)
422
China (excludes
Taiwan)
Malaysia
165
India
India
164
Malaysia
England
131
Korea, Republic of (South)
Hong Kong (SAR of China)
91
England
Korea, Republic of (South)
90
New Zealand
71
4
53
7
22
8
18
4
15
3
89
United States of America
73
Nepal
78
Sudan
54
Sri Lanka
75
Singapore
45
Indonesia
67
South Africa
44
Hong Kong (SAR of China)
65
95
SARs
and
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