Population Over 65
Theme: Population
Background Information
England’s population is ageing (there were nearly 8.3 million people aged 65 and over estimated
in 2008) with the numbers aged over 65 projected to increase at a greater rate than for other
age groups. This ageing of the population and associated pressure and demand on health care
services will have major implications for future policy and service provision.
Data
The Office for National Statistics releases mid-year population estimates based on the 2001
Census. The latest data are mid-2008 estimates. 2006-based long term sub-national population
projections are also determined and give an indication of future trends in population for the
period 2006-31.
Cumbria
The latest mid-year population estimates for 2008 indicated that the total population aged 65
years and over in Cumbria was 97,900 people: an increase of 1,800 people since 2007. This
accounted for 20% of the total population compared to the 16% for England.
Districts within Cumbria
Populations in the district councils ranged from 10,600 in Eden to 23,800 in South Lakeland
(Figure 1).
Figure 1: Mid-2008 Population Estimates: 65 Years and Over
Mid-2008 Population Estimates: Quinary Age Groups (65 Years and Over)
(Source: ONS)
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+
25
Population (Thousands)
20
15
10
5
0
South Lakeland
01 September 2009
Carlisle
Allerdale
Barrow-in-Furness
Copeland
Eden
1
As a percentage of the total population, the figures for the district councils ranged from 18% in
Barrow-in-Furness to 23% in South Lakeland with the percentages of those aged 65 and over in
Allerdale, Eden and South Lakeland being above the Cumbrian average (Figure 2). In
comparison to the national value, all district councils had proportions greater than the 16% of
England.
South Lakeland also had the greatest proportion of people aged over 75 and over 85 in Cumbria
and, with the exception of Copeland district council in the 85 years and over age group, the
remaining localities all had proportions greater than that for England for the specified age
groups. In the 85 and over age group, Copeland was 0.2% below the national value of 2.2%.
Figure 2: Mid-2008 Population Estimates: 65, 75 and 85 and Over Age Groups as a Percentage of the Total Population
Mid-2008 Population Estimates: Percentage of the Total Population
(Source: ONS)
65+
75+
85+
25
Percentage of Total Population
20
15
10
5
0
South Lakeland
Eden
Allerdale
Carlisle
Copeland
Barrow-inFurness
Cumbria
England
Population Projections
2006-based sub-national population projections show that by 2031 Cumbria’s 65 and over
population is projected to increase by 74% to 164,700: a greater percentage increase than the
national projection of 63% (Figure 3). This increase is unevenly distributed across the county
with a wide variation in the projections for district councils. The lowest projected increase is
expected for Barrow-in-Furness at 55% between 2006 and 2031 (the only locality below the
national rate) whilst the greatest increase is projected for Eden (90%). Eden, Copeland and
South Lakeland are all projected to have a rate of increase greater than that for Cumbria as a
whole.
01 September 2009
2
Figure 3: 2006-31: Percentage Increase in 65 and Over Population
Percentage Increase in 65 and Over Population, 2006-31
(Source: 2006-based subnational population projections, ONS)
Allerdale
Barrow-in-Furness
Carlisle
Copeland
Eden
South Lakeland
Cumbria
England
100
90
80
Percentage increase
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031
Year
In terms of the 65 and over population as a percentage of the total population, projections show
that the Cumbrian population is expected to increase from 19% in 2006 to 29% in 2031 (Figure
4). All Cumbria district councils are projected to experience increases in the proportion of the
population aged 65 and over with the lowest percentage in 2031 being 26% in Barrow-inFurness and the highest being South Lakeland with 34%. In all cases, the values for the
Cumbrian district councils were above that for England with South Lakeland, Eden and Allerdale
being above that for Cumbria also.
Figure 4: 2006-31: 65 and Over Age Group as a Percentage of the Total Population
2006-31 Projected Over 65 Population: Percentage of Total Population
(Source: Mid-2006 based estimates, ONS)
Allerdale
Barrow-in-Furness
Carlisle
Copeland
Eden
South Lakeland
Cumbria
England
40
Percentage of total population
35
30
25
20
15
10
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031
Year
01 September 2009
3