Population Age Structure
Theme: Population
Background Information
England’s population is ageing with the numbers aged over 65 increasing at a greater rate than
other age groups. This ageing of the population and associated pressure and demand on health
care services will have major implications for future policy and service provision.
Data
The Office for National Statistics releases mid-year population estimates based on the 2001
Census. The latest data are mid-2008 estimates. 2006-based long term Sub-national Population
Projections are also determined and give an indication of future trends in population for the
period 2006-31.
Cumbria
Analysis of the mid-2008 population estimates by age for Cumbria shows that 16% (79,300)
were aged 0-14 years, 64% (319,500) belonged to the 15-64 age group and 20% (97,900) were
over 65 years of age. When comparing the Cumbrian age profile to that of England (Figure 1), it
should be noted that Cumbria has an older population. There are approximately 19,900 more
people over 65 years of age living in Cumbria than you would expect from the England age
profile.
Figure 1: Cumbria and England Mid-2008 Population Estimates
Cumbria and England Mid-2008 Population Estimates: Quinary age groups
(Source: ONS)
Cumbria Male
Cumbria Female
England Male
England Female
85+
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
10
8
6
4
2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Population (Percent)
01 September 2009
1
Districts within Cumbria
The age profiles for each district council also reflect this older population in comparison to
England with this being particularly pronounced in South Lakeland and Eden (Figures 2-7).
Figure 2: Allerdale and England Mid-2008 Population Estimates
Allerdale and England Mid-2008 Population Estimates: Quinary age groups
(Source: ONS)
Allerdale Male
Allerdale Female
England Male
England Female
85+
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
10
8
6
4
2
0
2
4
6
8
10
8
10
Population (Percent)
Figure 3: Barrow-in-Furness and England Mid-2008 Population Estimates
Barrow-in-Furness and England Mid-2008 Population Estimates: Quinary age groups
(Source: ONS)
Barrow-in-Furness Male
Barrow-in-Furness Female
England Male
England Female
85+
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
10
8
6
4
2
0
2
4
6
Population (Percent)
01 September 2009
2
Figure 4: Carlisle and England Mid-2008 Population Estimates
Carlisle and England Mid-2008 Population Estimates: Quinary age groups
(Source: ONS)
Carlisle Male
Carlisle Female
England Male
England Female
85+
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
10
8
6
4
2
0
2
4
6
8
10
8
10
Population (Percent)
Figure 5: Copeland and England Mid-2008 Population Estimates
Copeland and England Mid-2008 Population Estimates: Quinary age groups
(Source: ONS)
Copeland Male
Copeland Female
England Male
England Female
85+
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
10
8
6
4
2
0
2
4
6
Population (Percent)
01 September 2009
3
Figure 6: Eden and England Mid-2008 Population Estimates
Eden and England Mid-2008 Population Estimates: Quinary age groups
(Source: ONS)
Eden Male
Eden Female
England Male
England Female
85+
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
10
8
6
4
2
0
2
4
6
8
10
8
10
Population (Percent)
Figure 7: South Lakeland and England Mid-2008 Population Estimates
South Lakeland and England Mid-2008 Population Estimates: Quinary age groups
(Source: ONS)
South Lakeland Male
South Lakeland Female
England Male
England Female
85+
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
10
8
6
4
2
0
2
4
6
Population (Percent)
01 September 2009
4
Population Projections
2006-based sub-national population projections show variation when analysing the Cumbrian
population by specified age groups. Between 2006 and 2031, the only projected increase is for
the population aged 65 years and over (74%): a figure in excess of the projected increase for
England for this age group (63%). The populations for Cumbria in the 0-14 and 15-64 age
groups are projected to decrease by 2% and 1% respectively (Figure 8). This is in contrast to
the expected increase in these age groups for England (14% and 10% respectively).
Figure 8: 2006-31 Percentage Change in Population by Selected Age Groups
Percentage Change in Cumbria population by selected age groups, 2006-31
(Source: 2006-based subnational population projections, ONS)
Cumbria 0-14
Cumbria 15-64
Cumbria 65+
England 0-14
England 15-64
England 65+
80
70
Percentage Change
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031
Year
The breakdown of the projections by district council reveals that a negative percentage change
in populations between 2006 and 2031 is expected for the 0-14 and 15-64 age groups for all
districts except Carlisle. In addition, the percentage increase in population is greater than that
for England for each district council in the 65 and older age group with the exception of
Barrow-in-Furness with Copeland, Eden and South Lakeland all having percentage increases in
the 65 and over population greater than that of the Cumbrian average.
Cumbria is therefore projected to reflect the national trend of an increasingly ageing population
but the rate of change is expected to be much greater.
01 September 2009
5