Annual Meeting of the Nordic Hotel
and Restaurant Association
Nordiska Hotell- och Restaurangförbundet (NHRF)
At Hotel Budir, Snaefellsnes, Iceland, June 15, 2007
Organized by Samtök ferðaþjónustunnarThe Icelandic Travel Industry Association
A speech on June 15, at 13:15
Trausti Valsson
Professor of Planning
University of Iceland
Published on www.saf.is
Impact of Global Warming on Nordic Countries,
e.g. in Terms of Tourism
Based on Valsson's new book
“How the World will Change – with Global Warming”
(The book can be read and bought on www.howtheworldwillchange.com )
Introduction
Hotter summers and milder winters have already made most of us aware of what scientists say
is a trend towards extensive global warming. Most of the experts accompany their predictions
with dire warnings of the resulting rising sea levels and spreading deserts. Valsson’s approach
to the problem of global warming is a refreshing look at the advantages that will ensue. With
the melting of the sea ice in the North, new Arctic shipping routes will connect the Pacific and
Atlantic Oceans.
The warming will also make oil and mineral resources in northern areas easily accessible for
exploitation and will make the Arctic comfortable for human habitation, replacing the living
spaces around the central areas of the globe that will become too hot for habitation. Valsson
underlines the importance of international agreements for reducing greenhouse gas emissions,
which are largely to blame for the current warming trend. He also promotes the view that even
in the face of the very many negative consequences, we need to maintain a positive attitude
towards the changes that are coming upon us, an try to study How the World will Change
with the as it seems inescapable warming of the globe.
Impact on Nordic Areas
The North will experience more extensive warming in the future than other areas of the globe.
This will result in a rapid reduction of the polar ice and create a more habitable climate that
will make the North the premier future development area of the globe.
The large Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA) report that describes how the climate of
the Arctic will develop in this century – and what the impacts will be, mostly on the natural
environment and indigenous communities – does not include any of the theories of changing
ocean currents in its climatic scenarios. Therefore neither does this present book. Rather, it
builds on the ACIA report that predicts that during this century most of the Arctic sea ice will
retreat step by step in the summer and that temperatures will rise by 4 to 7°C.
The projections of the ACIA report include the assumption that during this century some
success will be achieved in some areas of the globe in slowing the increase of greenhouse gas
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emissions. This, however, will not be the case in many areas, so that the warming will
continue.
Environment, Resources and Development
Much activity is to be expected in the Arctic and the high North in the future because of
global warming, mostly the opening of global shipping routes and easier accessibility of huge
oil and gas reserves. In this section, we will review, the environment of the high North and its
resources. We, through this, will gain insight into what kind of developments these resources
and improved climatic conditions have already made possible. Until recently estimations of
global reserves of oil, gas, and minerals hardly included the Arctic because the area was
largely covered with snow and ice for the greater part of the year. Discovery of the scope of
mineral reserves and possibilities for development in the Arctic is just beginning.
The distribution of vegetation of the Arctic and Sub-Arctic areas are, and will be changing
much in the future: The bio zones spread north. It is argued in Valsson’s book that with
excessive future warming, the North will be practically the only area that mankind can
comfortably escape to from areas of intolerable heat because by then the Arctic will have a
comfortable, or slightly cold, climate with vegetation somewhat similar to what we see in
Scandinavia today. The loss of the tranquil Arctic environments, glaciers and tundra will be
sad, but global warming is coming and we should not paint the changes in nature that come
with it as only bleak and negative. It is, rather, advisable for us to embrace the inescapable
changes with a positive attitude and to start to discover how we can adjust to the upcoming
changes in the world.
The Polar regions are the last areas on the globe to be developed, and in a way, they can be
said to have been conserved by the cold and ice. Because of the cold, the Arctic ecosystems
are unique and at the same time sensitive, both to the impact of human activity but especially
to stresses that the very rapidly changing climatic features are putting on them. All this calls
for very considerate planning, followed by cautious execution of building projects.
In recent last decades, important tools have been developed to help us plan in such a way
that environmental impacts are kept at a minimum. The main method to prepare and
investigate major projects is the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) methodology.
Scientists have already outlined the main components of the work on environmental
assessment and planning that needed to be developed in order to be able to implement
Environmental Impact Assessment practices in these little known and little mapped northern
regions.
One of the most important components in this process is the Dynamic Environmental Atlas.
The creation of such an atlas was absolutely necessary for those conducting the assessments
to enable them to know what degree of impact the various types of environments can take in
terms of large projects.
The work on the creation of the atlas is organized in five separate but interrelated projects that
groups of scientists have been working on for a long time: 1) Invertebrates and Fish, 2)
Marine Birds, 3) Marine Mammals, 4) Coastal Zone and 5) Large Rivers, Estuaries and
Deltas. This is a continuing task, but the main objective of the project is to establish a
database containing information on the distribution, abundance, migration, and breeding and
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feeding areas for the most important marine animal resources in the area of the Northern Sea
Route. The project also has the proclaimed goal of instigating discussion on the possible
impacts of other human activity on these species.
Needed Work on the Impact on Tourism
The predictions on changes in climate lead to the assessment of how various aspects of nature
will be changed by this, as partly described here before. This Valsson predicts will mean
increased development and tourism in the North in the future. In countries where tourism is
very much based on nature, like in many northern areas, these changes will lead to much
changes in the scope and duration of tourist activities.
The basic, common characteristic is that the summer season will get longer. This will mean a
better utialization of all tourist related investments, like hotels, restaurants and travel and
leisure infrastructures. Some areas and tourist branches in countries like Iceland, that have
been investing in winter tourism, will in some cases be loosing the basis in which they build,
or their season will be shortened considerably.
Examples on this are e.g. the skiing areas in Reykjavik and Akureyri. The situation has till
now been barely remided in Akureyri by buying and operating snow producing mashines. The
weather in Reykjavik is already too hot for that. Another example of faulty investments is the
building of huts for glacier tourism at the edge og glacers; the edges are running away from
them. The Myvatn lake has been resently marketed for wintersport: e.g. fishing through the
ice or smowmobile races on the ice – but the ice can not be ocunted on any more.
These examples show that studies need to made on the impact of global warming in all nordic
countries – and for all the main branches of tourism that are in any way depentant on factors
of climae and nature.
Literature
ACIA Arctic Climate Impact Assessment.
Cambridge University Press, 2005
Acta Borealia. Nordic Journal of Circumpolar
Societies. Volume 22. UK, 2005
AHDR Arctic Human Development Report.
Stefansson Arctic Institute, Akureyri, Iceland,
2004
Bernes, Claes: Warmer World – The Greenhouse
Effect and Climate Change. Sweden, 2003
Lomborg, Bjørn (editor): Global Crises, Global
Solutions. Cambridge, 2004
Lomborg, Bjørn: Hid sanna ástand Heimsins.
Akureyri, 2000
Lomborg, Bjørn: The Skeptical Environmentalist
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– Measuring the Real State of the World. Cambridge,
2005
NORD: Arctic Challenges. Stockholm, 1993
Norden: Nordisk regionalpolitisk samarbeidsprogram.
Copenhagen, 2005
Norræna rádherranefndin: Náttúra Nordurlanda
– Forsendur og meginreglur náttúruverndar. Nordic
Council of Ministers, Copenhagen, 1995
North – The Journal of Nordregio, theme
issue: Future Challenges to Nordic Regional Policy.
Volume 10. Denmark, 1999
Nuttall, Mark (editor): Encyclopedia of the Arctic
I-III, 2005
Valsson, Trausti: How the World will Change – with Global Warming.
Reykjavík, 2006 www.howtheworldwillchange.com
Valsson, Trausti: Planning in Iceland – From the
Settlement to Present Times. Reykjavík, 2003
Websites
ACIA Scientific Report http://www.acia.uaf.edu
Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA)
www.acia.uaf.edu and www.amap.no/acia
European Environment Agency (EEA)
www.eea.eu.int
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
www.ipcc.ch
International Polar Year 2007 - '08 (IPY)
www.ipy.org
Norden www.norden.org
Nordic Centre for Spatial Development
www.nordregio.se
UNEP/GRID-Arendal www.grida.no
Vital Arctic Graphics.pdf www.grida.no
World Meteorological Organization (WMO)
http://www.wmo.ch/web-en/index.html
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