How Well Can You Predict Tomorrow`s Weather

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How Well Can You Predict Tomorrow's Weather?

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Weather is one of the most relevant and obvious parts of the natural world. Consciously or unconsciously, nearly everyone considers the weather before leaving home each day. Our awareness of daily weather helps us make many decisions, including our choice of clothes, transportation, and daily activities.

Surface Analysis Maps

There’s no single "right" way to predict the weather—weather forecasting is as much an art as it is a science.

Meteorologists rely on the wealth of available data, their knowledge of atmospheric processes, and their experience and insight to make predictions.

A good way to begin gathering data for your own prediction is to examine maps of current weather conditions, called surface analysis maps. These maps use numbers and symbols to display weather data. For example, the blue contour lines on the map represent areas of equal atmospheric pressure, measured in millibars (mB).

1. Where are low-pressure areas located on this map? Where is the high-pressure area located? Explain how you determined this.

Satellite Imagery Combined with Surface Analysis Data

This map combines a surface analysis map with a color-enhanced infrared image from a satellite. The locations of fronts are indicated with standard symbols. A key showing weather front symbols is located at: Weather Map Front

Symbols .

The colored part of this image shows the temperature at the tops of the clouds. As temperature decreases with increasing height in the lower atmosphere, colder clouds indicate higher clouds.

2. What does this image tell about the weather near the low-pressure areas that the previous image does not?

Movies of Satellite Images

Many types of satellite imagery are available to help predict the weather. Satellites can provide information about temperature, the amount of water vapor in the air, cloud height, and wind speed.

Animating a series of satellite images is particularly useful in weather prediction. The pattern and direction of weather movement over time become obvious, and forecasters can project observed patterns into the future.

3. Describe the motion of clouds around the low-pressure area located over northeastern North America. (The northeast is visible in the upper-right corner of the images)

Looking at Forecast Maps

Meteorologists consider all the available information when they develop generalized forecast maps. This map shows weather that was predicted to occur over the 24 hours after the map was issued. Forecasters may predict the weather up to several weeks into the future, but the further into the future they forecast, the less accurate they are.

Use the 24-hour forecast map above to answer the following question.

4. What kind of weather is predicted for the central part of the U.S.? For Oregon and Washington?

Local Forecasts

In addition to making general predictions for North America, meteorologists use the same types of information to predict the weather for smaller areas of each state.

The map of Washington state below shows how the National Weather Service divides a state into weather prediction zones. Similar maps exist for each state.

Click the red dots to view weather forecasts for the areas around Seattle and Spokane.

Predicting Tomorrow's Weather

Now it’s your turn to predict tomorrow's weather.

5. Use your knowledge and experience plus Web resources to write a prediction for tomorrow's weather. Record your predictions in the table and describe the sources of your information.

6. Describe the meteorological processes you believe will most influence tomorrow's weather (e.g. cold or warm fronts, low or high pressure, air masses, etc.) in your region.

Checking the Accuracy of Your Prediction

On the day for which you predicted the weather, record the weather conditions that actually occurred. Visit the weather information Web links and examine satellite images and maps of current weather conditions during the course of the day.

7. Day Two: Check your predictions. How accurate was your prediction? What weather factors did not behave as you had expected?

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