Economics 672
Economics of Population
Reading List (subject to revision)
Reading list is subject to revision. Required readings are indicated by an asterisk.
Readings to be presented by a student are marked by .
I.
Overview
Background reading: *(East-West Center 2002) (Will be distributed in class.)
II.
Demographic transition and demographic fundamental
The objective of this section is to provide an historical overview of broad demographic
change and to learn some of the standard tools and methods used to study population.
A. Mortality
Measurement: *(Palmore and Gardner 1994: 9-18, 30-61)
Determinants:
Mortality Determinants: (Fogel 1997) (Caldwell 1986; Martin et al. 1983; Mosk
and Johansson 1986; Preston 1975, 1980)
How long will we live: (Lee 2001; Olshansky, Carnes and Desesquelles 2001)
Mortality crises: (Ashton et al. 1984; Watkins and Menken 1985)
Evolution of aging: (Lee 2003; Robson and Kaplan 2003)
B. Fertility
Measurement: *(Palmore and Gardner 1994: 63-79, 91-108)
Determinants:
Framework: (Montgomery 1987)
Supply of children: (Bongaarts and Menken 1983)
Demand for children: (Lee and Bulatao 1983; Schultz 1997)
Value of children: (Mueller 1976)
Child mortality: (Ben-Porath 1976; Say 1991)
Population policy: (Molyneaux and Gertler 2000; Tsui 2001)
C. Age-Structure, population momentum, and steady states
Additional Reading and Information Sources:
Mathematics of population: (Keyfitz 1968)
Demographic methods: (Shryock, Siegel and Associates 1976)
Mortality data: The National Center for Health Statistics is responsible for collecting data
on vital statistics (births, deaths, divorces, marriages) in the United States. Their website
provides detailed data on the US case and publications that explain methodology.
http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/. Life tables for a many countries can be found at
http://www.lifetable.de/. Historical data for many OECD countries:
http://www.mortality.org/.
Population projections, methods: (Lee 1998; U.S. National Research Council 2000) The
NRC book is available for free in an on-line version:
http://books.nap.edu/html/beyond_six_billion/
Population projections, data: (United Nations 2000) Summary information and
description available online at http://unpopulation.org
Recent UN report on marriage and fertility in low-fertility countries: (United Nations
Population Division 2003) can be downloaded from the Population Division web site
http://unpopulation.org
REFERENCES
Ashton, B., K. Hill, A. Piazza, and R. Zeitz. 1984. "Famine in China, 1958-61."
Population and Development Review 10(4):613-645.
Ben-Porath, Y. 1976. "Fertility Response to Child Mortality: Micro Data from Israel."
Journal of Political Economy:163-178.
Bongaarts, J.and J. Menken. 1983. "The Supply of Children: A Critical Essay." Pp. 27-60
in Determinants of Fertility in Developing Countries, edited by R.A. Bulatao and
R. Lee. New York: Academic Press.
Caldwell, J.C. 1986. "Routes to Low Mortality in Poor Countries." Population and
Development Review 12(2):171-200.
East-West Center. 2002. The Future of Asia's Population. Honolulu: East-West Center.
Fogel, R.W. 1997. "New Findings on Secular Trends in Nutrition and Mortality: Some
Implications for Population Theory." Pp. 433-481 in Handbook of Population and
Family Economics, edited by M.R. Rosenzweig and O. Stark. Amsterdam:
Elsevier.
Keyfitz, N. 1968. Introduction to the mathematics of population. Reading, MA: AddisonWesley.
Lee, R. 1998. "Probabilistic Approaches to Population Forecasting." Pp. 156-190 in
Frontiers of Population Forecasting, Supplement to Population and Development
Review, edited by W. Lutz, J.W. Vaupel, and D.A. Ahlburg.
—. 2001. "Predicting Human Longevity." Science 292:1654-1655.
—. 2003. "Rethinking the evolutionary theory of aging: fertility, mortality, and
intergenerational transfers." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
July 15.
Lee, R.D.and R.A. Bulatao. 1983. "The Demand for Children: A Critical Essay." Pp. 233287 in Determinants of Fertility in Developing Countries, edited by R.A. Bulatao
and R. Lee. New York: Academic Press.
Martin, L.G., J. Trussell, F.R. Salvail, and N.M. Shah. 1983. "Covariates of child
mortality in the Philippines, Indonesia, and Pakistan: An analysis based on hazard
models." Population Studies 37(3):417-432.
Molyneaux, J.W.and P.J. Gertler. 2000. "The Impact of Targeted Family Planning
Programs in Indonesia." Pp. 141-173 in Population and Economic Change in East
Asia, a supplement to Population and Development Review, edited by C.Y.C. Chu
and R. Lee.
Montgomery, M.R. 1987. "A New Look at the Easterlin 'Synthesis' Framework."
Demography:481-496.
Mosk, C.and S.R. Johansson. 1986. "Income and Mortality: Evidence from Modern
Japan." Population and Development Review 12(3):415-440.
Mueller, E. 1976. "The Economic Value of Children in Peasant Agriculture." Pp. 98-153
in Population and Development: The Search for Selective Interventions, edited by
R. Ridker. Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press.
Olshansky, S.J., B.A. Carnes, and A. Desesquelles. 2001. "Prospects for Human
Longevity." Science 291:1654-1655.
Palmore, J.A.and R.W. Gardner. 1994. Measuring Mortality, Fertility, and Natural
Increase: A Self-Teaching Guide to Elementary Measures. Honolulu: East-West
Center.
Preston, S.H. 1975. "The Changing Relation between Mortality and the Level of
Economic Development." Population Studies:231-248.
—. 1980. "Causes and Consequences of Mortality Declines in Less Developed Countries
During the Twentieth Century." Pp. 289-315 in Population and Economic Change
in Developing Countries, edited by R.A. Easterlin. Chicago: NBER.
Robson, A.J.and H.S. Kaplan. 2003. "The Evolution of Human Life Expectancy and
Intelligence in Hunter-Gatherer Economics." American Economic Review
93(1):150-169.
Say, R.K. 1991. "The Effects of Child Mortality Changes on Fertility Choice and Parental
Welfare." Journal of Political Economy:582-606.
Schultz, T.P. 1997. "Demand for Children in Low Income Countries." Pp. ages 349-430
in Handbook of population and family economics. Volume 1A. Handbooks in
Economics, vol. 14, edited by -.M.-R. Rosenzweig and -.O. Stark, eds,.
Amsterdam; New York and Oxford: Elsevier Science.
Shryock, H.S., J.S. Siegel, and Associates. 1976. The Methods and Materials of
Demography. Orlando: Academic Press.
Tsui, A.O. 2001. "Population Policies and Family Planning Programs in Asia's Rapidly
Developing Economies." Pp. 413-443 in Population Change and Economic
Development in East Asia: Challenges Met, Opportunities Seized, edited by A.
Mason. Stanford: Stanford University Press.
U.S. National Research Council, P.o.P.P., John Bongaarts and Rodolfo A. Bulatao,
Editors, Committee on Population, Commission on Behavioral and Social
Sciences and Education,. 2000. Beyond Six Billion: Forecasting the World's
Population. Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press.
United Nations. 2000. World Population Prospects: the 2000 Revision. New York:
United Nations.
United Nations Population Division. 2003. "Partnership and Reproductive Behaviour in
Low-Fertility Countries.".
Watkins, S.C.and J. Menken. 1985. "Famines in Historical Perspective." Population and
Development Review:645-677.